Jay Jaffe FanGraphs Chat –2/4/25

Jay Jaffe: Hey folks! Welcome to my Tuesday chat. Please hang tight for a moment as I’m in the midst of conferring with editors about today’s piece

Jay Jaffe: Ok, I’m back but please bear with me if there are further interruptions. My long-awaited-threatened opus — “How I Learned to Stop Worrying and Enjoy Batting Average Again” — is in the editorial pipeline. No, that’s not a joke, it’s a piece that’s five years in the making

Jay Jaffe: Since the Hall of Fame circus has left town, I’ve gotten back into the business of covering transactions via the Taylor Rogers trade (https://blogs.fangraphs.com/reds-trade-for-taylor-taylor-not-tyler-or-…) and the Max Scherzer signing (https://blogs.fangraphs.com/max-scherzer-takes-flight-to-toronto/)

Jay Jaffe: Anyway, I’ll link to today’s piece when it’s up. In the meantime, on with the show…

WinTwins0410: Jay, thanks for all your Hall of Fame coverage.  I know that through your research and writing — and reaching conclusions based on where the data and narratives take you — you have been more enthused about some Eras Committees picks in the past few years than about others.  My question: Recognizing that the only other way to get guys in after their BBWAA voting eligibility expires is via the Era Committees — flawed though they may be — is it better to get some of the guys you’ve *really* wanted in as a trade-off for having to accept the induction of some of the ones you think fall short?  Put another way, over the past decade-plus, do you feel like it has been worth it to you to see Dick Allen, Marvin Miller, Ted Simmons, Minnie Minoso, Ron Santo and Alan Trammell inducted if it has also meant the enshrinements of Dave Parker, Jim Kaat, Harold Baines and Jack Morris? (note that I didn’t mention Bud Selig lol)

Jay Jaffe: Thanks for the kind words. The results you cite are a mixed blessing, indeed, but the particularities of the first group lead me to prefer a more inclusive Hall of Fame to a less inclusive one. That said, I’d be happier with the concept of a Trammel/Morris trade-off if it also included Lou Whitaker

Jay Jaffe: That said, I’m still mad — and will always be mad — that all of the guys you mention save for Simmons and Trammell had to die before finally getting elected.

Guest: What happened to Nashville being the leading site for expansion?

Jay Jaffe: It’s still one of them. I think Nashville, Charlotte, Salt Lake City and Portland are still the leading candidates and we’ll probably get one from the first pair and one from the second, for some geographical balance. We were supposed to get some movement on expansion after the A’s and Rays’  ballpark situations were sewn up but… well, we’ve seen some setbacks to say the least

Guest: I’m of the opinion the A’s will never build a stadium in Vegas.  What say you?

Jay Jaffe: If I were inclined to bet, I’d bet against it. But boy is it gonna get even uglier than it already is if that happens

Guest: Is Jazz Chisolm and his rocket arm more valuable at third base than second?

Jay Jaffe: From watching him with the Yankees, I’d be inclined to say no, because we saw him make some fundamental mistakes borne of inexperience, esp. in October. But the Statcast numbers in particular say he was well above average there, less because of his arm than his range

Jay Jaffe: his bat is probably a better match for the positional expectations at second, though. Either way, going into a season with Oswaldo Cabrera penciled in at third is less than ideal

Jay Jaffe: OK hang tight, another editorial confab…

BC26: If you had to pinpoint one thing you’re most excited for this season, what would it be?

Jay Jaffe: its arrival. I think I could use the immersion of the season and its daily rhythms to provide some relief from the unfolding horrors around us.

econguy: Could the Baltimore and LA match up on a Jackson Holliday trade ? Rushing+many young pitchers who are blocked and the Dodgers get their long term SS.

Jay Jaffe: I don’t think Rushing or anyone else the Dodgers can offer is high-ceiling enough to offset the risk of trading Holliday

Jason N: Should the Padres offer Merrill the Tatis contract?  Should Merrill take it?

Jay Jaffe: If he does get such an offer, he should take it, but given the Padres’ ownership chaos right now, there’s no way in hell that’s happening.

Question marks: In terms of 2025 hitting performance (excluding defense), who’s the low man on the totem pole: Maikel Garcia (who gets SBs), Anthony Volpe  (also SBs), Jacob Wilson (BA), Byron Buxton (terrific—if he’s healthy), Jackson Holliday (when will his time hasn’t come?). Thanks.

Jay Jaffe: Garcia. he’s too young to give up on, but I really haven’t seen enough out of him to be impressed

Nate: Who do you think the braves 5th starters going to be

Jay Jaffe: Steve Avery

Jay Jaffe: RosterResource and our Depth Charts projections suggest Ian Anderson as the 5, with AJ Smith-Shawver and Bryce Elder as alternatives. That seems about right. Anderson really did look like a very good pitcher for awhile and it wouldn’t suprise me if, physical issues behind him, he becomes a special player again

Sean Lahman: Will the Reds be better simply for having Terry Francona at the helm?  How much difference can a good manager make in terms of wins?  Bruce Bochy took the Rangers from 68 wins to 90 in his first season (and a World Series win).  But last year, the Cubs dumped David Ross to hire Craig Counsell and finished with an identical win-loss record.

Jay Jaffe: I think he’ll help, but I don’t think it will be a dramatic improvement because I just don’t see a dramatic improvement in the roster. There seem to be a lot of role players who might pan out but aside from Elly, who’s rough around the edges but entertaining as hell, who’s going to drive that offense?

Tony: When thinking about the Hall of Fame cases of pitchers, do you think comparing someone like Bret Saberhagen to more modern pitchers, like Felix or deGrom makes sense since the whole reason pitchers are likely to be considered differently moving forward is because performance expectations are now different?

Jay Jaffe: More or less. I’m still grappling with how to evaluate this Hall of Bypassed Pitchers but I think that as we move forward, we maybe should focus more on them in career innings tiers. Who are the best pitchers with 2500-3000 innings, or 2000-2500, that are missing from the Hall? The problem still becomes the difficulty of even getting those guys onto Era Committee ballots, since the Historical Overview Committee almost never puts a one-and-done candidate on there.

Jay Jaffe: I will say that for as impressive as deGrom is, if he doesn’t get to 2000 inning (he’s got 1,367) he’s got even less of a shot than Felix.

Idiotic Failson: It’s crazy to think given his hype coming up, but does Moncada end up with a minor league deal with an invite to ST at this point?

Jay Jaffe: I’m sure there’s a minor league deal out there for him — just about every team can take a flyer on a guy who’s shown that kind of upside even if it was a while ago. The question is whether there’s a major league deal for him. I suspect there is, but with a low base salary plus incentives. The Yankees wouldn’t be much of a surprise but after asking for his medicals early in the offseason, they apparently haven’t re-engaged. https://nypost.com/2025/01/31/sports/breaking-down-the-dwindling-infie…

Free Agent Fan: Dan Szymborski just wrote an article that included where Bregman could have the greatest impact to playoff odds. What team signing Bregman would have the greatest impact to your life (minimal as it may be)?

Jay Jaffe: He’d probably wind up in my line of sight most often if he signs with the Padres or Diamondbacks since so much of my viewing defaults to the Dodgers given the the 3-hour time difference, but I’d probably see him in person most often if he signs with the Red Sox. All of those teams are among the ones whose Playoff Odds could benefit the most via Dan’s piece (https://blogs.fangraphs.com/bregging-the-question/)

bartleby: i am clutching my pearls over the horror of the one non Ichiro HOF voter. Should we be hunting him/her down via any means necessary and tar and feather him/her?  The horror, the horror!

Jay Jaffe: At this juncture, we need to let it go — not just the identity of the non-Ichiro voter (who did not reveal him/herself via the BBWAA ballot dump today https://bsky.app/profile/notmrtibbs.com/post/3lhedk4esqs2v) — but the concept of unanimity. I may be more guilty of stoking expectations than anyone given that I wrote about the possibility in my 2020 five-year outlook, but in the grand scheme, it just doesn’t matter much at all

War2d2: Hi Jay! PECOTA has the Cubs as a playoff team, which, among the unfolding horrors of the world at large as well as some sudden and traumatic personal tragedies, seems like a beautiful flower inexplicably growing out of a crevice between the bricks of a foreboding citadel of burgeoning evil.

Jay Jaffe: It says a lot about the NL Central, most of it not good!

Reds Enjoyer: How much weight do you put on PECOTA projections?

Jay Jaffe: Right now, it’s an interesting curiosity but one i really haven’t had time to absorb. I’m more interested in what our projected standings will say. In both cases, I’m putting even less stock in them until just before opening day when we see where the remaining free agents have landed (Bregman, for one) and which pitchers we’re losing to injuries

San Pedro: Who is in your all time rotation of pitchers you have seen in your lifetime?

Jay Jaffe: Oh jeez. Randy Johnson and Pedro Martinez are probably at the top of my list. Clemens and Maddux, probably. I’d probably add Steve Carlton there over Tom Seaver based on the timeline of my fandom in that Seaver won his last Cy Young in 1975, three years before i started paying close attention, where Carlton won two Cys when I was still a kid.

Jay Jaffe: actually, i gotta squeeze Kershaw in there too

Jay Jaffe: Let’s say I DQ Clemens over my personal distaste for the man.

Mr. Burrito: Post Sasaki signing there’s been a lot of buzz about Dodgers’ money being an unfair advantage. But other eras, and other teams (Yankees in the ‘30s and ‘50s; Dodgers post Jackie Robinson), have used money to create talent pipelines of sorts, resulting in lots of WS championships. Is that a fair parallel, or are we seeing something new?

Jay Jaffe: There’s nothing new under the sun when it comes to payroll inequities. The good old days weren’t so good if you’re looking for competitive balance

Jay Jaffe: see: the Yankees from 1921-1964

Dancing Dan McGrew: Does the lack of support for McCann and Martin decrease the chances of a Realmuto’s candidacy?

Jay Jaffe: It doesn’t help his cause, but he’s got another half-decade-ish to write his own script as the candidacies of Buster Posey and Yadier Molina play out.

Mr. Burrito: If Utley makes HOF does that change the dynamic in a big way? He was amazing but his career was comparatively short. I can think of a few players who had similar WAR per 162 (Reggie Smith, Jim Edmonds, Lou Whitaker) who aren’t in and, in some cases, arent

Jay Jaffe: It won’t change anything in a big way given the bottleneck of one-and-dones. It probably still helps Lou Whitaker, the rare such candidate to get back on a Committee ballot, the most of the guys you’ve named despite the different shapes of their careers. Probably helps Pedroia even more given his current candidacy

Tacoby Bellsbury: What are your biggest takeaways from the BBWAA ballot dump today?

Jay Jaffe: I haven’t had time to look at it yet given the timing of my own work today

John B: Hypothetical. Team One has a mix of solid veterans and solid mid-level prospects. Team Two has a mix of star players but weak on the back end of the lineup and bench. Which has a better chance for success.

Jay Jaffe: it’s a pretty vague hypothetical but IIRC years ago studies showed that the stars-and-scrubs rosters have a higher chance of breaking through.

Adenolith: Regarding non-unanimous HOF electees, I’d read something that reframed my thought process. It’s certainly not good, but we are seeing progress. Joe Dimaggio got 44% on his first ballot. Bob Gibson was elected with 84%. Sometimes old people are just going to think the game was better when they were kids and nostalgia is going to beat out sanity.

Jay Jaffe: DiMaggio’s shares of the vote are not comparable, given that the five-year waiting rule was more or less evolving from an unwritten one to a codified one during the time between the end of his career (1951) and his election (1955).

Jay Jaffe: it’s still ridiculous that Gibson got just 84% but it also doesn’t really matter.

Austin D.: For as much as baseball fans (well, sports fans in general) love a good what-if story, why is it that I never see Kal Daniels’ name mentioned?

Jay Jaffe: Good point. The guy hit .300/.402/.514 (151 OPS+) through age 26, but ongoing problems with both knees caused a rapid decline and disappearance from the scene.

Nick Z: Hearing that one of the obstacles for Bregman is that scouts are chattering that his athleticism has eroded to such a degree that it has scared teams off. Not sure I see any underlying data that totally supports that. What might we be missing that teams/scouting dept’s are seeing?

Jay Jaffe: Check his Statcast percentile rankings for sprint speed  (from 62nd in 2019 to no higher than 32nd after 2020), arm strength (no higher than 30th since 2020), and his generally unremarkable contact profile. Those don’t paint a great picture, but his range, on the other hand, still looks pretty good via Statcast.

Macoris: Going back to 2017 Gerrit Cole has 1,374 IP of 75 ERA- | 75 FIP-. From 1951-54 Robin Roberts threw 1,328 IP of 72 ERA- | 78 FIP-. Given the vastly different contexts of each performance do you find one more impressive than the other?

Jay Jaffe: Roberts’ performance is more impressive IMO in that he was doing it 300+ innings per year and didn’t have a down season in that time; in fact, he had four straight bWAR leads. What Cole has done is impressive but he’s had his performance and (in 2024) physical hiccups along the way.

Dallas: So what’s the deal with Henry Davis? I get he hasn’t hit in the majors, but he hasn’t gotten an extended leash and is seemingly blocked by Joey Bart and Endy Rodriguez. Is PGH just wasting assets at this point or would it be best to make a baseball trade to fill another position of need?

Jay Jaffe: Other than a serious inability to make contact with major league pitching I don’t have a great sense of what’s gone wrong for Davis beyond the organization’s unforced error of not letting him catch in the majors in 2023. I think he’d benefit from a change of scenery and the Pirates from an upgrade, though the Bart/Rodriguez tandem projects about as well as you’d expect garden-variety Pirates to project (23rd out of 30)

emarkaye: Love your work Jay! Although I have zero faith in Manfred (or any commish) thinking about the good of the game anymore (see $$$), do you think there’ll be any movement within the next decade for an international draft? With the Nippon Dodgers happening before our eyes and then the icky stuff in the Caribbean with handlers and potential death for some players shuttling around (Cubans), it seems it should be something they do… for the good of the game (and people’s safety).

Jay Jaffe: wouldn’t surprise me if we get something in the next CBA, though the odds of that are probably reduced if the owners lock the players out again

Jay Jaffe: ok folks, I’ve got a few things pulling me away from here. Thanks so much for stopping by and marveling at my ability to pull off chatting two weeks in a row. Look for that batting average thing soon!