Jay Jaffe FanGraphs Chat – 3/31/26

Jay Jaffe: Good afternoon, folks! Welcome to my first chat of the 2026 regular season.

Jay Jaffe: It’s a gorgeous day here in Brooklyn. Alas, we have no day baseball to accompany this chat; when I’m commissioner, I will mandate a minimum of one day game for every day through at least the first 30 days of the season.

Jay Jaffe: Anyway, I’ve got a thing in the pipeline about Chase DeLauter’s hot start, which should go up sometime while we’re chatting.

Jay Jaffe: Yesterday, I wrote about the Giants’ season-opening offensive futility https://blogs.fangraphs.com/the-giants-opened-the-season-by-making-som…, and on Friday I wrote about Jackson Chourio’s injury https://blogs.fangraphs.com/scratch-that-jackson-chourio-lands-on-the-…

Jay Jaffe: and now, on with the show….

Allan: Incredibly early, but both Murakami and Okamoto have looked quite good so far. Have major league teams been underrating the ability of Japanese hitters to succeed at the MLB level?

Jay Jaffe: Both Murakami — who like DeLauter homered in each of his first three (regular season) games, joining a select group — and Okamoto are off to strong starts, but I’d suggest pumping the brakes a bit before we jump to any conclusions. While they’ve each gotten on the board with multiple home runs, for example, Murakami has just a 69% contact rate so far and Okamoto a 53.3% contact rate; those rates are going to stabilize before the players’ slash stats will.

Jay Jaffe: Setting aside the fact that KBO veteran Jung Hoo Lee was born in Japan, the last handful of Japanese-born players to log substantial time in the majors — Matasaka Yoshidia (debut 2023), Seiya Suzuki (2022), Shogo Akiyama (2020) and Yoshi Tsutsugo (2020) did not take MLB by storm, with Suzuki the only one to really live up to high expectations

EvanC: So is challenge data eventually going to be converted to player value? All this chatter about pitch framing being devalued, but what about challenge value? If a catcher is highly successful as a challenger, that should be quantifiable in terms of value, no?

Jay Jaffe: I believe we’ll find a way to incorporate it. And no, with only a couple of challenges per team per game pitch framing isn’t going to be devalued. It will change form somewhat — a catcher may be able to deke a hitter into challenging a strike call for example. Mike Petriello recently wrote about what ABS data from the minors told us https://www.mlb.com/news/abs-challenge-system-statistical-breakdown-20…

Kevin: In your view, what could eliminate an otherwise obvious Hall of Fame-worthy active player from getting your support? An extended plunge into negative WAR value? Some form of cheating? Some form of criminal behavior? Repulsive conduct off the field? Other?

Jay Jaffe: most likely a PED suspension and/or criminal behavior. Beyond that, it’s a case-by-case thing. I did support Carlos Beltrán all the way through his candidacy

War2D2: Jay! The Cubs have currently been deploying Matt Shaw to (naturally) right field to cover for Suzuki’s absence. He’s a potential gold glove third baseman with a power bat and a 50+ grade hit tool, but the entire Cub infield is locked up for the next 5+ years. Seems like an obvious trade candidate, and sooner than later before his “prospect” pedigree fades and his trade value tanks. Do you think the Twins would be willing to part with Joe Ryan? Or Miami with Alcantara? I can’t help but think the Cubs still need a top of the rotation arm.

Jay Jaffe: I don’t think the Cubs are in a hurry to trade Shaw. They’re giving him a run at a multiposition role because injuries happen and days off are needed. Given last year’s struggles at the plate, I’m not sure I see him headlining a swap for a big-name starter

WinTwins0410: Jay, thanks for doing these chats. My question: It’s great news that Bill White is getting the Hall of Fame’s Buck O’Neil award. However, do you think that that honor significantly lessens the likelihood of an Era Committee voting White into the Hall of Fame?  That’s my thought and fear – even as he did well on the last Era Committee ballot covering him. I realize he would be up against some stiff competition in December (correct me if I’m wrong, but aren’t Bruce Bochy and Dusty both up on this December’s ballot?  (Lou Piniella again too)  Thoughts?

Jay Jaffe: I’m concerned about the same thing, and yes, the three managers you name are potential candidates for the upcoming Era Committee, and probably more likely to get elected. But this does honor a 92-year-old man while he’s still alive to get his flowers, and that counts for something, too.

JR: The news of an Emerson extension is very interesting. How would you align the Mariners INF, assuming Crawford should be back soon?

Jay Jaffe: You’re better off asking one of the prospect guys, but Crawford and Donovan both have experience at second and third base, in case they believe Emerson should play shortstop once he arrives. Cole Young, their current 2B, didn’t hit last year, but he’s a 2022 first-round pick and 2025 Top 100 guy so I don’t see them giving up on him. Eventually there’s probably a trade to clear up the logjam but with just 34 games at Double-A and 9 andTriple-A I don’t think they’re going to rush Emerson.

ML: I was listening to Rates and Barrels and Eno and Derek were mentioning that Judge might be one of the bigger winners of the ABS challenge system because his height caused him to get low balls called as strikes more often. It’ll be interesting at the end of the year to check which players benefitted more from the new system and why.

Jay Jaffe: yes, Judge has often gotten burned on those below-the-zone pitches, so I agree that he’s gonna be one of the big winners with the new ABS

O: Is Cole Young officially legit?

Jay Jaffe: As noted above, he comes highly recommended based on his draft position and prospect grades. He was a 50-FV guy at #76 entering last season and was up to no. 33 on The Board when he finally graduated, though his rookie season was a dud

Datt Mamon: What is your favorite overreaction to opening day/first week results?

Jay Jaffe: i still haven’t stopped laughing at former umpire Richie Garcia’s tirade about ABS embarrassing umpires given the myriad ways he embarrassed himself during his storied career (the Jeffrey Maier call, the missed strike three by Mark Langston vs. Tino Martinez in 1998 World Series opener, leading the 1999 mass resignation of umpires and then not getting rehired because his performance wasn’t up to snuff).

Manny: Maybe I’m just an optimist…. I don’t see MLB missing games next year. What do you think?

Jay Jaffe: I’ve said this before but I believe it will work out — maybe not missing zero games but we’ll have a season. A significant work stoppage would absolutely destroy the next wave of television contracts and delay expansion, both of which bring in $$$ for the owners. It would also sully Rob Manfred’s legacy, and while most of us will be glad to see him go, he doesn’t want a scrubbed season sticking to his shoes à la Bud Selig.

drplantwrench: can mike trout be back for real? please….?

Jay Jaffe: I’m not inclined towards prayer but I do have my fingers crossed for him.

Mr. Burrito: Also, if Sasaki makes it as a starter will the Dodgers shop Glasnow at the deadline? Glasnow is great, but so are 6 thousand lower paid guys in the system…

Jay Jaffe: The Dodgers aren’t going to shop Glasnow or any one of their other high profile starters regardless of what happens to Sasaki. It’s all about getting to October for them without overworking anybody and while still having enough healthy starters to get through.

If you’re looking for a Dodgers starter who could get traded this year, River Ryan, who’s coming back from TJ, or Emmet Sheehan, might be the best bets.

Mr. Burrito: It’s early to talk about, but will Votto and Utley change the nature of the HOF? And if they get in, will older guys — like the very comparable Reggie Smith — get consideration? By the numbers it might be hard to include high OBP guys like Votto  while saying Smith and Bobby Grich shouldn’t get in.

Jay Jaffe: The thing that people keep forgetting is that the Hall has created such a bottleneck for pre-1980 players that it’s nearly impossible to pin your hopes one one getting in unless his candidacy has been well-supported in the past. Hell, we’re still waiting for the first Negro Leagues player to get in on the strength of the past two decades of statistical research (Buck didn’t get in based on his numbers as a player). Grich and Smith, as one-and-done guys, are basically buried right now.

Guest: Might we have been sleeping on the Nats? Very young but talented team going from a dinosaur front office and field staff to a Rays/Red Sox superteam, with notable process changes to individual players all over the place through spring and the start of the season – Jake Irvin has his velocity back and a completely different pitch mix that the stuff bots love; Brady House has shown a lot more patience; Cade Cavalli has a new, much more optimal sweeper; Keibert Ruiz has… been demoted to a timeshare; etc

Jay Jaffe: There’s a fair bit of talent there, and the organization was ripe for a regime change, but I don’t think they’re ready to contend just yet

Matt: Who among the biggest surprise hot starting hitters (excepting guys just breaking into the league like Murakami and DeLauter) catch your eye as being *for real*

Jay Jaffe: I’m extremely hesitant to put much stock in ~4 games worth of numbers. But having said that, a few guys who were not successful last year or have short track records in the majors who have caught my eye thus far beyond the ones you named, and Okamoto: Jordan Walker, Owen Caissie, Matt McLain, Sal Stewart

Jay Jaffe: Oh, and Luis Robert Jr. and that guy Trout.

Jay Jaffe: that’s a pretty haphazard selection mostly from looking at Statcast data from four games. I am not a doctor or a scout, caveat emptor.

Guest: What’s the minimum number of HRs that would get Stanton in? Is it 500 or would like 485 suffice? And what do you think the odds of him reaching 500 are

Jay Jaffe: I kinda do think it’s 500 or bust for Stanton — but! Since he does have 18 postseason homers to his name, getting to 482 and having “500 combined home runs” might be enough

Jay Jaffe: he’s at 454 + 18 right now. I’d call it about 50/50 with the caveat that getting to 500 while going through a replacement-level slog as in 2023–24 could lessen the distinction.

Guest: Are any current free agents going to play in the majors this year?

Jay Jaffe: I’d bet Giolito pitches at some point. Michael Kopech if he’s healthy. Nestor Cortes, LaMonte Wade, Wilmer Flores, Jose Iglesias… just throwing darts but those are some

Guest: I saw some discourse on social media yesterday regarding Sal Perez and HOF candidacy based on all his career silverware.  I look at his career numbers and it doesn’t look all that close to a HOF’er… your thoughts?

Jay Jaffe: See https://blogs.fangraphs.com/cooperstown-notebook-the-2025-progress-rep…

Kenny Lofton: DeLauter article! Do I belong in the HOF in your humble opinion?

Jay Jaffe: With the elections of Beltrán and Andruw, Lofton is now the highest-ranking eligible CF by JAWS (10th, though Trout is 5th), so yes.

Ben: After a very rough opening series at home, the Giants had a pretty good day but still only managed 3 runs. I feel like their lineup should not be struggling as much as it is because they do have good players. Is it just a random cold streak or a philosophy/coaching problem?

Jay Jaffe: I still think it’s a cold streak but Vitello backtracking on his own motivational efforts and taking the blame for the slow start has me wondering if he understands that talking to 30-year-old multimillionaires is different from talking to 20-year-old college players. We’re gonna find out.

Justin: Can Luis Robert Jr get himself back to 2023 levels? This Mets fan has coveted him for a while and the eye test has had some excellent surprises. For example, he has much better takes on breaking balls than I expected. Any thoughts on how his 26 season will go?

Jay Jaffe: He really needed a change of scenery about as badly as anybody in the game. In addition to their endless losing and skimpy payroll, the White Sox are notoriously behind the times when it comes to analytical stuff, and so they’re less likely to help a struggling player adjust or help a good player find a new gear. He’s got much better support in Queens, and while I wouldn’t pin my hopes on him hitting 38 homers again, I think this will easily be his best season since 2023.

Baseball learner: True or false: Zym wrote a response in the mailbag about how Trout would only earn 4 WAR the rest of his career so in direct response he will now earn 4 WAR by the All Star break

Jay Jaffe: I hope it’s true. Here’s a link to that mailbag, for those of you who are subscribers (and many thanks if you are) https://blogs.fangraphs.com/fangraphs-weekly-mailbag-march-21-2026/

Proctor 62: Baseball is in such a great place. I’ve never seen this many prominent people talk about the game. I’ve never heard so many kids talking about it. Every game is incredibly watchable.

Jay Jaffe: Which means it’s time for everybody at the league office to put their heads together and fix that. First up, they’ve screwed up the MLB app on the iPhone by not showing linescores or probable pitchers!

RetireNutting: Would you agree with the claim that the Pirates are 2 position players (one may very well be Konnor Griffin but can’t waste a lineup spot on “The Nicks” and Triolo) and one David Bednar short of being a contender? Why spend $30M to get 2-3 spots away from becoming a good team?

Jay Jaffe: the Pirates certainly strike me as much-improved, and the bar in the NL Central is pretty low. I do think that if they’re any good, they’ll be active at the deadline to make a push for a playoff spot and in the meantime hope that Triolo, Gonzalez, or Yorke shows enough growth to merit more playing time once Griffin arrives, and that they find their next Bednar.

Big Buckston: The Nats embarrassing would-be NL contenders on the road in Chicago and Philly is an underrated first few days storyline in my opinion. It’s always fun to see a couple of teams with big expectations get caught with their pants down, so to speak, and be humbled by the whims of baseball

Jay Jaffe: the start of the season should always remind us that we can be surprised — sometimes pleasantly, though sometimes it’s not so pleasant

Cube Jockey: Is the ABS check an immediate answer?  I am assuming the video display is for entertainment purposes?

Jay Jaffe: By the time it’s being shown on the video for viewers, the umpire already knows the outcome

Jay Jaffe: poking around for ABS data, the Statcast leadeboard says Trout is the first player to win three challenges. Gonna send that WAR through the roof!

Jay Jaffe: (I don’t know how we would implement a value for this, tbc, but just cutting down on strikes is going to increase a hitter’s odds of better outcomes)

Jay Jaffe: The only player who has lost multiple challenges is Ronald Acuña Jr., who’s 1-for-3. https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/leaderboard/abs-challenges?sort=n_fails…

Baseball learner: You think any MLB players read FanGraphs?

Jay Jaffe: we’ve heard players say they track their metrics and scouting reports here. I doubt they’re voraciously reading every article but i’m sure the number of readers among players isn’t zero

Tim: Is Marte on the way to AAA? Looks like Tito has ruined him.

Jay Jaffe: He’s in a platoon with Will Benson in right field and has started both games against lefties. He’s still learning the outfield so he might lose some playing time and maybe goes down briefly if he struggles out there, but I don’t see the Reds as having enough good players that they can afford to give up on him.

JAWS top 10: When was the last time we had more than one JAWS top ten active at the same position? Judge will be there very soon and Mookie is already there.

Jay Jaffe: Good quesiton. Beltrán (9th) and Trout (5th) had overlapping careers from 2011–17. Scott Rolen and Adrian Beltré at third base overlapped. Miguel Cabrera and Albert Pujols overlapped, but negative WAR clouds the issue for the former, who’s now 11th; I don’t have it verified that he was ever in the top 10

Jay Jaffe: but those are the recent examples that come to mind

Alex: Do you think there’s anything to be learned from looking at batters exit velos (maybe Max EVs) by strike zone quadrant? Makes some intutitive sense to me but I don’t think I’ve seen the idea explored. Sample size issues?

Jay Jaffe: Probably worth a look, but yeah you do get into sample size issues and I’m not sure how predictive/sticky those performances are

Jay Jaffe: The DeLauter piece is up: https://blogs.fangraphs.com/the-chase-delauter-is-finally-on/

Jay Jaffe: and with that, it’s time for me to get some lunch (leftover broccoli beef, probably). No chat from me next week as I will be in Austria, exploring my ancestral roots with my parents and brother/family. Thanks for stopping by, and we’ll see you in April!