Jay Jaffe FanGraphs Chat – 3/4/25

Jay Jaffe: Good afternoon, folks, and welcome to another edition of my weekly chat!

Jay Jaffe: My look at the impact of the wave of spring injuries that’s hit the Yankees roster, taking out DH Giancarlo Stanton, the MVP of last year’s ALCS, and starter Luis Gil, the reigning AL Rookie of the Year, just went live https://blogs.fangraphs.com/injuries-to-stanton-gil-and-lemahieu-will-…

Jay Jaffe: Yesterday I took a look at the recent sighting of Kyle Schwarber playing first base for the Phillies https://blogs.fangraphs.com/first-sign-of-spring-kyle-schwarber-dabbli…

sliptoad: If Altuve sticks at left for a few years before becoming a pure DH, does that meaningfully change his HoF outlook? Would it be easier staying as a bad 2B until the DH move, or even moving to DH now?

Jay Jaffe: No, I don’t think it changes anything. Regardless of what happens throughout the remainder of his career, he’ll wind up having played more games at, and accrued more value at second base than any other position.

Jay Jaffe: if the changes help him boost his career totals, it’s probably a net positive (barring the additional injury risk created by a move). I don’t see him doing much DHing in Houston so long as Yordan Alvarez is there, though

Henry Dodger: Mr. Jay, hello, good man! Every time I check the Red Sox spring box scores Alex Bregman is either at 3B or DH. Odd if they’re going to play him at 2B, isn’t it?

Jay Jaffe: I haven’t really tuned in to the drama surrounding all this but I believe the Boston Globe’s Pete Abraham, who recently wrote, “In the end, Bregman will play third base with Devers getting occasional games there. The alternative would be the Red Sox not putting their best team on the field.” Pete’s covered the Sox beat for a long time and presumably has enough reliable sourcing within the organization to back that. https://www.bostonglobe.com/2025/02/26/sports/red-sox-roster-predictio…

Bongo: Among the plethora of baseball narratives every year, do you find yourself gravitating toward particular kinds of stories?  For example, youth movements are always fun, or an in-their-prime star doing amazing things.  For me, I love watching the old guys fighting Father Time one more year.  The lost cause nature of it somehow feels noble to me.

Jay Jaffe: When you write about baseball 4-5 times a week year-round, you do develop some staples that cover some of that output (e.g., my Hall of Fame coverage, my annual Replacement Level Killers series) and ideas you can fall back upon to help get through the lean times (my Still on the Shelves look at available free agents once camps are open). Beyond that, I suppose I do have certain types of stories that attract me. The potential Hall of Famer off to a slow start or severe injury or rebounding from one is a pretty natural extension of my Hall coverage and fits within the “fighting Father Time” trope that you suggest. The impact of a wave of multiple injuries is a good chance to pull together a handful of our tools — projections, playoff odds, prospect coverage. As I live in New York, I’m a bit more attuned to the ups and downs of its two teams (especially when they’re at extremes, or controversial), and as I watch more Dodgers games than any other non-NY teams, I am primed to dig in there.

Jay Jaffe: Beyond all those — or sometimes within those types — what I really enjoy is figuring out, through reporting, observation, and data, is Why Has This Guy’s Performance Changed? New pitch? Bad mechanics? Bad luck relative to Statcast? It’s a puzzle I enjoy taking a stab at solving

Adam: Hi Jay, do you see the Phillies making any in-season or deadline trades if things don’t go their way and if so what kind of trades? The lineup is stacked on paper but the past few years they haven’t been able to get the job done. The only thing I can see them having up their sleeve is some sort of trade down the road

Jay Jaffe: I didn’t get to it in the Schwarber piece, but the Phillies’ most obvious avenue for upgrading their lineup is by admitting that Nick Castellanos is a sunk cost and getting a right fielder who isn’t guaranteed to wind up on my annual Replacement Level Killers list.

Jay Jaffe: and if things really go south, they could consider pending free agents like Schwarber, Max Kepler, and Jordan Romano. I’d think trading JT Realmuto is less likely because I suspect they’ll try hardest to retain him given the dearth of quality catchers.

ed: Boone mentioned a late spring potential acquistion for 3b. This has to happen, right??

Jay Jaffe: I took a brief glance at their third base picture — a mix of Oswaldo Cabrera, Oswald Peraza, Jorbit Vivas, Pablo Reyes, and the desiccated husk of DJ LeMahieu — within today’s piece, noting that they rank 24th on our Depth Charts, driven almost entirely by good defense. Unfortunately for them, Gil’s injury makes Marcus Stroman a necessity rather than a luxury, and I think they’d need to offload a big chunk of his $18 million salary in order to add salary for an established third baseman.

Jay Jaffe: I don’t see Nolan Arenado in their future, for as much sense as he might make.

Sam: If Rose gets taken off the ineligible list, do you think the Veterans Committee will vote him in?

Jay Jaffe: Ugh. Ugh. Ugh. He’d be under the purview of the Era Committee on the 2028 ballot, but given his gambling and other issues I don’t think he’s a lock for election. If you’re at all considering the character clause he’s an easy no.

Patrick Dubuque had a very good piece on Rose at Baseball Prospectus today (https://www.baseballprospectus.com/news/article/96841/pardon-me/). This graf struck me as something Manfred might think about:

Jay Jaffe:

Jay Jaffe: Despite the political moment where it seems in vogue to throw accountability out the window and venerate an alleged rapist with other major personal failings, I don’t think baseball is so easily going to be pushed around. I hope I’m right.

comish4lif: I’d expect Pete Rose eventually goes to one of the Veteran’s Committees – if he is reinstated by Manfred from his “Permanent Ban.”
But, If Pete Rose ends up on the BBHOF writers ballot, can you take a guess at what percentage of writers vote him in? It’s definitely NOT 75% is it? Please say under 5%.

Jay Jaffe: The BBWAA ballot rules only apply to players who are at most 15 years removed from their last appearances in the majors. Despite the fact that a faction of writers pitched a hissy fit when the Hall created its rule to not consider players on the permanently ineligible list in February 1991, I don’t see the BBWAA and Hall bending on that rule.

As the voters’ handling of the candidacies of players such as Bonds, Clemens, and Vizquel who have notable off-field issues alongside their names, it’s not hard to find the 20-ish votes it takes to reach 5% on the ballot. It’s much, much harder to get to 75% with those black marks, though

Large Rectangle: Hey Jay, first time long time. Any lingering free agents that you’re surprised haven’t been signed yet and thoughts on where they may end up landing?

Jay Jaffe: i covered this in a two-part series last week for position players (https://blogs.fangraphs.com/still-on-the-shelves-part-i-top-remaining-…) and pitchers (https://blogs.fangraphs.com/still-on-the-shelves-part-ii-top-remaining…). Kyle Finnegan signed with the Nationals the same day the latter piece ran, while Jose Quintana agreed to terms with the Brewers yesterday. Of the rest, the continued availability of Yasmani Grandal, J.D. Martinez, Lance Lynn and Craig Kimbrel probably surprise me the most

I am the Walrus: Where is the love from the Veteran’s Committee (or whatever its current name is) for second basemen Lou Whitaker, Bobby Grich, and Willie Randolph? Is it because they don’t have gaudy power numbers? It seems to me that a solid argument could be made for all three of them.

Jay Jaffe: Since that trio has collectively appeared on one Era Committee ballot, it’s not their love that’s lacking so much as it is that of the Historical Overview Committee, the group of BBWAA elders charged with constructing the ballot. While there’s been some turnover in recent years, many of the folks who sat on that committee seemingly forever were the same ones who turned their noses up at Grich, Whitaker, Ted Simmons and others a few decades ago. It’s a form of double jeopardy!

Alex Anthopoulos: What should the Braves do now with the Murphy injury? Promote Baldwin? or ride it out with a combination of Tromp/Casali/Leon while Murphy is out? Maybe the most important question is what do they do when Murphy heals and Baldwin is doing good in the majors?

Jay Jaffe: Just saw this. Sean Murphy is expected to be out 4-6 weeks due to fractured ribs after a HBP, placing his return in early to mid-April. I suspect that unless this turns into something much bigger, the Braves will ride with some combination of Tromp and one of the two NRI veterans on minor league deals since they could lose one by having to pass him through waivers if they want to send him down upon Murphy’s return.

Guest: Who do you see winning the 5th spot in the Padres rotation.  I’m rooting for Waldron, but am intrigued by Hart.  Vazquez just doesn’t seem to be the answer.

Jay Jaffe: I’d love to see Waldron, the knuckleballer, return to the rotation after being displaced late last season, but I don’t think they signed Hart to be a long man, and Waldron and Vazquez each has an option remaining.

War2d2: Hi Jay! Your Schwarber article made me think about the pack of prospects the Cubs had circa 2014/15, and where they are now. Ultimately none of them will be HoF candidates, but who do you think history will be kindest to? If Rizzo is indeed done he’ll end up with just short of 40 bWAR, Bryant (barring an unlikely resurgence) will end up around 30, Baez probably 20 (assuming he gets enough playing time to further erode what he earned as a Cub), Schwarber around 20 as well. Bryant’s peak blows the rest away, but does Rizzo’s relative steadiness mean history will look at him more kindly? My hot take: because of his postseason heroics with other teams, I think Schwarber is the one people still remember in 20 yrs (assuming, as always, society makes it that far).

Jay Jaffe: I think they’ll all be remembered for one reason or another — the Baez and Bryant free agent deals right now look as though they’re among this decade’s worst. Rizzo is a three-time All-Star and three-time Gold Glover, Schwarber a two-time All-Star. The contrast sorta reminds me of that between Paul Konerko and Adam Dunn, both of whom are fondly recalled, albeit moreso in some quarters than in others.

Andy: Hi Jay, thanks for the chat. What are your thoughts on ESPN opting out of the MLB media rights deal?

Jay Jaffe: I suspect the two sides aren’t done with each other, and as I was typing my answer I realized i’d already answered a very similar q last week. So:

While there are other alternatives for MLB to stream/air games via Apple, TBS, and Amazon, none of them has the footprint that ESPN does, and I suspect that the two sides will probably find a smaller deal that keeps them working together in some capacity. I do think, as noted in the clip that I posted (https://bsky.app/profile/jayjaffe.bsky.social/post/3liwqrrulvs24), that this does not bode well for the owners’ quest to expand the playoffs, because ESPN doesn’t seem so interested in the added inventory.

War2d2: Piggybacking on the question about story types and linking to my comment about “most memorable” mid-2010s Cubs, I’d love to see you and Longenhagen do a long-long-term retrospective on draft or prospect classes, something like a 15- or 20-years back. Getting the combined perspective of the guy that covers the starts of careers with the guy that covers the ends of them would be /chef’s kiss.

Jay Jaffe: Noted! Those kind of looks back are fun but they take up some bandwidth for Eric, who carries a heavy load with our prospect coverage

Lebron: Will we ever see Ohtani steal 50 again? Or was that just a one time thing when he couldn’t pitch?

Jay Jaffe: I doubt we’ll see it again. All that running and sliding takes a physical toll that Ohtani and the Dodgers aren’t eager for him to match if he’s also pitching, and he’s probably going to lose about 100 PA to days off after starting as well, meaning fewer opportunities to steal bases.

Talfred: Surveying various fan sites, I see some common tropes for trade proposals: my team’s 3-WAR player and two 1-WAR players for the other team’s superstar, my team’s washed-up player will go on a hot streak and we’ll sell high, trade my team’s deadweight contract for “some pitching”, etc. Do you have any you can add?

Jay Jaffe: My team’s flailing prospect or just needs a change of scenery to unlock his blue-chip level talent. The tomato can at the back of the rotation is a legitimate no. 4 starter in a pitchers’ park.

Henry Dodger: Having two teams playing their home games in minor-league parks is going to be weird. Do you think you’ll get to see any regular season games in either stadium?

Jay Jaffe: No. I’m not traveling to Florida in this current political environment and Sacramento isn’t among the top 10 destinations I’d hit if I had a week in California.

Jeremy: IIRC, debuting in the major leagues at age 20 or younger is a pretty decent predictor of a HoF career. Is that likely to change in future as the game trends younger?

Jay Jaffe: Not appreciably because players debuting by 20 remain a rarity and we’re not seeing anything in the trend that suggests a break from business as usual.

Jay Jaffe:

Jay Jaffe: forgive the lack of formatting here but when I break that into a rolling three-year average I don’t see a big upward trend.

Jay Jaffe:

Something clever: Is there a non-zero chance Tatis Jr. makes the HoF or has that ship sailed?

Jay Jaffe: “Never” and “forever” are very long times  — one reason why we should never rule out Rose or Bonds or A-Rod winding up in Cooperstown. We haven’t seen a player suspended for PEDs wind up in the Hall of Fame but given that Tatis is just 26, it’s probably 20 years before he’s a viable candidate and a lot can happen between now and then.

Bosoxforlife: If a HOF candidate hangs on too long does that effect his credentials in a meaningful way. Arenado is on my mind.

Jay Jaffe: It might slow a player’s path to election but if he’s good enough he’ll likely get in via one route or another. And I don’t worry much about Arenado, who’s still above average-ish (2.4 and 2.5 bWAR in in the past two seasons) and above the Hall peak standard.

Fay Vincent: Do you think we ever get another fan’s commish like Vincent? Could you see players or paying fans ever get a say in commissioner like all star voting?

Jay Jaffe: The day after Hell freezes over, perhaps. Nobody is putting control of a $12 billion a year industry directly in the hands of anybody but somebody in the vest pocket of the billionaires who stand to profit. To think otherwise is hopelessly naive, sorry.

Grandpaboy: Will the Cubs’ failure to sign or trade for a playoff-quality SP go down as one of the biggest whiffs of this offseason? I don’t understand why they’d make a “go for it!” trade for Tucker and not double down.

Jay Jaffe: Their stopping short after dealing for Tucker remains a headscratcher and yet so typical of their post-2016 logic. It stands out as a notable whiff in a winnable division.

Henry Dodger: I missed your writing on Dave Parker making the Hall. As much fun as I had watching him as a kid, I never thought of him as a HOFer. Tremendous three-year peak but not enough otherwise.

Jay Jaffe: Here’s my profile of Parker https://blogs.fangraphs.com/2025-classic-baseball-era-committee-candid…. I don’t think I knew enough about the Hall to think of him in those terms when he was at his peak. I don’t think he’s a very good choice based on his advanced stats, but if he’s going in, I’d prefer he lives to experience it rather than going in posthumously à la Dick Allen.

Giancarlo runs like he’s wearing jeans: Should the Yankees have brought in another 3B/2B? Depth looks light?

Jay Jaffe: Peraza is out of options and I think they still like him enough to prefer him to an outside acquisition. but yes, they are still thin

WTF: As someone with ADHD, Brian Cashman seems to exhibit a common symptom of being unable to finish a task that is mostly complete.

His task of course, is build a complete roster. Two years ago it was no left fielder. Last year it was no third baseman. This year, also no third baseman.

What gives? Can the Yankees doctors not help him get the right meds?

Jay Jaffe: I think it’s stupid as hell to infer somebody’s medical condition based upon the public-facing aspect of a job where 90% of what goes on isn’t public.

Jay Jaffe: Hal Steinbrenner sets the budget, Cashman has to work within that. If the budget doesn’t allow for adding a big name third baseman, the Yankees have to work from within while hoping the owner shows some flexibility in July if that’s still the greatest area of need.

Buddy Boy: Would you have voted Bud Selig into the HOF? Steroid commish seems similar to steroid players to me.

Jay Jaffe: no, I wouldn’t have voted for him.

Jay Jaffe: I wouldn’t have voted for any commissioner for the Hall except maybe Happy Chandler, who oversaw integration by going against the desires of 14 out of 16 owners (the Dodgers and Cleveland’s Bill Veeck being the exceptions)

Giancarlo runs like he’s wearing jeans: Do you think MLB expansion will make the trade deadline more exciting? I was against expansion until the expanded playoffs created a sellers market every summer.

Jay Jaffe: Meh, no. Expanded playoffs has watered down the trade deadline already and I don’t think adding teams and spots is going to improve that.

JD Vance: Always count on Jay to bring up his political opinions unprompted

Jay Jaffe: Democracy is crumbling around us, an unelected Nazi is running rampant through our infrastructure, our president has started a trade war with massive tariffs and aligned himself with a Russian dictator, social security is being dismantled, and idiots think it’s cool to pretend to be Nazi simps like J.D. Vance. But sure, I’m the one bringing up my political opinions unprompted.

NYY: Yanks most likely to go for Vlad, Tucker, or Murakami next offseason in your opinion?

Jay Jaffe: I don’t have a great sense of Murakami’s strengths and weaknesses. of those three I find Tucker the most appealing and think Vladito’s profile creates too high a risk for it to make sense to win a bidding war.

Bosoxforlife: Let me second the question from I am the Walrus. These 3 2nd basemen were the gold standard throughout their careers. I admit to being very biased and often refer the the HOF as the Hall of Offense. I see great hitters with little else get in, but superb all-around players who were the best at their positions get snubbed constantly.

Jay Jaffe: it’s far easier to go by the easily measurable numbers, whether we’re talking about traditional offensive stats or Gold Glove wins. Players with broader sets of skills that are less measurable are less often duly rewarded. We see that over and over in Hall voting history, though we’ve at least been able to correct some of the more glaring injustices in the past couple of decades.

WinTwins0410: Jay, can I ask you about Bill Dahlen? I know you’ve written about him including IIRC in the Casebook. But I’m more interested in what’s happened to him more recently.  In the Vets’ committees circa 2007-2016, he regularly made the ballot for his era, and actually did well on those ballots, scoring 50%-60%.  Now, he didn’t even make the 2025 Era committee ballot, and on the previous one (2021 for 2022), he got “less than,” votes-wise.  But if you go back to 2016 (when he got 8 out of 16 votes, thus 50%) and earlier, Dahlen did a lot better on small committees. And yet — he scores great on advanced stats. What do you think it is here? Do you think 1) his time is too far gone, 2) he wasn’t memorable enough in what he did for his achievements to last, 3) baseball from that era was just plain different and not comparable to today; 4) he doesn’t have any loud advocates and/or no one cares about that era; 5) it’s the law of small numbers or a certain randomness, or 6) is it something else?  What do you think?

Jay Jaffe: I suspect Dahlen’s window has passed. The change in Era Committee format that brings Negro Leagues and pre-Negro Leagues Black candidates into the candidate pool while reducing ballots from 10 candidates to eight makes it harder to get placement, and harder to frame Dahlen as the most obvious victim of some injustice or oversight. He’s also a rather unsavory character, with some of his traits — his gambling and a domestic violence allegation, most notably — more difficult to overlook given recent voting trends.

Jay Jaffe: Ok folks, that’s all I’ve got time for this week. Thanks so much for stopping by, we’ll do this again soon.