Jay Jaffe FanGraphs Chat – 5/13/25

Jay Jaffe: Good afternoon, folks! Welcome to another edition of my Tuesday chat, and apologies if the non-standard start time threw anybody for a loop; I needed to take care of some business after filing today’s piece a bit later than usual — a quick look at Jonathan Aranda’s breakout that took me a bit longer to complete than I expected because I had colleague Davy Andrews over for beers last night as ww watched some baseball. Anyway, that should go up at 1 pm ET.

Yesterday I wrote about Javier Báez’s rebound after two dismal seasons in Detroit. https://blogs.fangraphs.com/the-new-look-javier-baez-is-fun-again/. On Friday I took a look at some statistical anomalies within extra-innings play thus far this season https://blogs.fangraphs.com/weird-stuff-is-going-on-in-extra-innings-m…

Jay Jaffe: Anyway, on with the show!

You have weakened: Your reverse-jinx powers are no match for the supernova that is Judge. I swear, every night he doesn’t show up in the highlights, I’m like, well, guess he had a bad game. (Looks at last night’s box score – 2-3 with a double and 2 walks)

Jay Jaffe: We’re seeing one of the best runs — if not the best — by a hitter in the 21st century. He’s hitting .414/.500/.783 (255 wRC+) six weeks into the season! Caught a few of his at-bats in the last couple of days and it’s like he’s using a pool cue out there to place the ball where the fielders ain’t.

Sodo Mojo: Who ends up with more Career WAR Julio Rodriguez or Aaron Judge.  I don’t think Julio ever approaches Judges single season rate stats but got a 4 year head start.

Jay Jaffe: I’m gonna go with the guy who looks like he might be on his way to his third 10-win season out of four.

Jay Jaffe: I’d love to see Julio get to that level, but he just hasn’t shown the consistency to make me bet on him to surpass Judge even with the head start.

Thanks for the chat!: What do the yanks do at the deadline?

Jay Jaffe: They’ll trade for a starting pitcher and a third baseman. They probably always were, but losing Oswaldo Cabrera in such brutal fashion last night was rough.

Longo Long Gone: Saw a tidbit in Cup of Coffee that Evan Longoria will be signing the ceremonial one-day contract with the Rays before retiring. Great career, strong argument for Best Ray in Franchise History, etc. – but probably not a Hall of Famer. Is he a One and Done case? Or does he eke out the 5% and stick around? How do you see his upcoming candidacy at this point in time?

Jay Jaffe: My hunch is that despite a borderline 58.9/42.3/50.6 line that puts him 20th in JAWS among third basemen, he goes one-and-done. He didn’t make an All-Star team after his third season, won only one Gold Glove thereafter, and fell short of 2,000 hits. His Hall of Fame Monitor score of 42 really speaks to the way he did things that flew beneath the radar. It’s a bit of a bummer, but I’m also surprised he didn’t at least squeeze another season or two out of his skill set.

John: It’s still somewhat early but is it fair to say that Breslow hasn’t had a good tenure so far?  Pulled back spending his first offseason, traded away Chris Sale for nothing, missed the playoffs despite Duran’s MVP season, Devers’ position fiasco, no path for Roman Anthony to get pt, and a .500 team 6 weeks into the season.  Not a great string of moves.

Jay Jaffe: The Sale trade was more a salary dump than anything else. I’ve liked some of the stuff he’s done, but the glut of young and talented position players they have was largely amassed by Chaim Bloom, and wow, I really don’t like the way the Red Sox have handled the Rafael Devers situation, which I wrote about this spring and which Davy covered yesterday https://blogs.fangraphs.com/the-red-sox-are-pulling-the-wrong-levers-w…. This doesn’t become a thing without poor communication between the front office and the star slugger.

Matt VW: Would there be any downside to the Red Sox auditioning Rizzo? He has some (admittedly distant) previous history with the organization and he’d be the very definition of stopgap if he’s playable.

Jay Jaffe: he didn’t seem interested in playing for peanuts after a performance that, frankly, merited very little guaranteed money. If he’s in shape and has changed his tune, sure, it couldn’t hurt, but his decline has been so steep that I can’t imagine the outcome would be particularly positive.

Phil: So, um, Houck. . . I don’t even know what to ask. Would you try the bullpen? Dobbins has pitched well, and Buehler’s coming back, so it’s an option. Or Worcester?

Jay Jaffe: I haven’t looked into what’s going on there, but I think we’ve got somebody on Houck for tomorrow. I did see in his game log that he has two starts with 2.1 innings and 11 earned runs allowed and woof, that’s just brutal .

Barves: Any idea why the Braves have Verdugo batting leadoff? It’s kind of weird how they have so much faith in a guy they signed in March as a fill in, especially since he’s not even hitting well

Jay Jaffe: Verdugo did get off to a hot start upon joining the Braves and then went cold, but we’re talking about a decent 65-PA stretch followed by a 1-for-24. He is what he is, a below-average regular who has some situational uses, but right now the Braves are short of healthy outfielders because their first wave — Kelenic and De La Cruz — failed so miserably.

emh1969: I’m curious. Do you ever tire of writing or talking about the HOF?

Jay Jaffe: I don’t think I could sustain the intensity of focus that I give it from November through January on a year-round basis, but I’m more than happy to write and talk about it. It’s a great feeling to be acknowledged as an expert in something — particularly something that so many people are so passionate about.

Jeremy: Do you think the owners would prefer to get rid of the minor leagues entirely and outsource player development to the NCAA?

Jay Jaffe: No, because the incentives differ significantly. Colleges are there to win now, not to develop players for success five years down the road. Major league organizations want to guide their players’ development and use those players to fill their needs as they arise and as the players’ talent dictates.

Alex R.: For the second year in a row, the Braves offense is underperforming – particularly Harris, Albies, Olson, Riley, and certainly Arcia. Is it: a) league figured them out and they haven’t adjusted; b) aging coming quicker than expected for Olson and Albies; c) none of them were as good as they thought when they extended them, and 2021 was a lucky fluke; or d) 14 months of bad mojo that will even out soon.

Jay Jaffe: I think their problem is an outfield that has collectively produced -0.7 WAR off a 68 wRC+. They’ve gotten less than nothing at the corners, as noted above, and I suspect some of the other players are pressing a bit to try to make up for that. The production of Riley and Olson isn’t what it used to be, but it’s not out of line with what they did last year. And that would hardly be a problem if Albies, Harris, and Acuña were producing.

Jay Jaffe: Given the peanuts some of these guys are playing for, I don’t think you can take issue with them not being “s good as they thought when they extended them.” Albies is making $7 million this year, Arcia $2 million. If they don’t perform, it’s not a significant financial burden to replace them.

Mick Donfort: Let’s say that you become the GM of the Rockies. What’s the first thing you would do? (besides resign)

Jay Jaffe: collect every scrap of information that the previous regime collected, pour gasoline on it, and start over.

Jay Jaffe: oh, first you might want to light a match and set that stuff on fire. Sorry, sequencing is an issue today.

Jay Jaffe: For real, I think you need to start by completely replacing anyone involved in drafting and player development because the Rockies just haven’t been getting enough good players into their system.

“Headstart”: Harper gave Judge a 5 year headstart (including his monster 2015) and he caught up. Not sure that matters for someone like this.

Jay Jaffe: A fair point.

Ryan Hall: Addison Barger: the real deal?

Jay Jaffe: he’s a 45 FV prospect with a 104 wRC+ while being shielded from lefties for most of his four-week stint. I’m not sure what kind of “real” you’re looking for but if you’re asking if he’s going to turn into a star, I don’t see it.

Tug: How much fun was it to write about Javy playing well again? He is one of the guys who really reignited my baseball fandom after a hiatus there so I couldn’t help but smile while reading.

Jay Jaffe: Players with extreme performances are generally the ones that catch my attention, and Javy, well, he’s quite often been extreme in one direction or another. But he’s so physically talented, especially on defense. Watching him make those outfield grabs like he’d been doing it for a decade warmed my heart. Definitely a fun piece to put together, and I’m glad it sparked some joy in readers as well.

Lord Thunder: How much has Ronald Acuna’s HOF trajectory been affected by his injuries?

Jay Jaffe: Drastically. At this point, he’s 27 and has had as many seasons worth 4.0 bWAR or more as he has ACL repairs. That’s… not a good ratio.

Jay Jaffe: Now, obviously Acuña has done some things that can be the foundation of a HOF case, with the MVP and ROY awards, the two 41-homer seasons and two stolen base crowns,. He’s already got a 65 score on the Hall of Fame Monitor, as he’s doing things that get voters’ attention. But number one in all of this is staying on the field, and if he can’t do that, he won’t get there.

md: any fringe-HOF potential candidates in future that have improved their potential chances significantly so far this year?

Jay Jaffe: I wouldn’t exactly call them fringe unless we’re doing “if his career ended today” but I think Goldschmidt is really strengthening his case, and it’s good to see Machado, Arenado, and Jose Ramirez off to strong starts. Chris Sale is starting to pull it together after a few rocky starts.

Jay Jaffe: (Sale is the furthest off of that bunch)

Ozzie: What is the deal with Baty starting over Vientos? I get that Vientos started slow, but he has looked much better lately and he is a 30hr guy.

Jay Jaffe: The return of McNeil and the emergence of Acuña have kind of crowded the infield. Don’t forget, Baty was just sent down a few weeks ago, then homered three times in two games when he finally got to play back-to-back for the first time in a few weeks. Vientos has started the last three games and gotten six hits, so he’s heating up as well, though his defensive metrics have been brutal. It’s a bit of a juggling act for Carlos Mendoza right now.

Jeremy: Asked Ben this yesterday, curious for your take: do you think there’s a trend for GMs/PBOs running into trouble because they can only execute one plan/strategy and can’t adapt to changing circumstances? Thinking of Zaidi with SF and Elias with Baltimore.

Jay Jaffe: To me, the real issue in Baltimore isn’t Elias, it’s Rubenstein not spending as promised. The Orioles needed to fortify their rotation this past winter, and instead they let Burnes walk and replaced him with Tomoyuki Sugano, a 35-year-old mid-rotation guy from Japan. This is a team in win-now mode and their biggest offseason addition was Tyler O’Neill.

Zaidi caught some bad breaks in SF. Losing out on both Correa and Judge after they were reported to have agreed to terms, and then not finding any other comparable stars to invest those millions… that’s rough. The injuries to that pitching staff didn’t help.

Jay Jaffe: I’m not sure it’s fair to say that both of those POBs has/had only one strategy

brad: do the dodgers have any recourse for cutting ct3? been painful to watch his struggles at the plate

Jay Jaffe: They’ve given him a long runway to turn things around but I suspect he’s not going to make it through the season. Then again, with Conforto struggling, Teoscar and Edman injuried, it’s not like they’re just going to start dumping alternatives. But if a numbers crunch happens as it did last year for Heyward, I think Taylor draws the short straw

Yeah Well Hiura Towel: Boone started Grisham against a lefty. Yay, he must be a lineup regular now!…but he also sat against 2 righties last week. Huh??? Guy is destroying the baseball, what are we doing here?

Jay Jaffe: The Yankees are trying to fit four outfielders into three slots, and it’s not always a simple equation as to who sits, though it’s obviously not going to be Judge except on rare occasions. Grisham and Dominguez are both playing very well, and Bellinger is heating up (11×33 last 8 games). There are worse problems to have.

Jeremy: Are the Rockies going to become the pre-2016 Cubs? Plenty of fans in the stands year after year even though the team is bad year after year.

Jay Jaffe: they’ll turn a profit because they have a great ballpark and aren’t spending much on players but it’s not like they have the lore or widespread national fan base that the Cubs do.

Jay Jaffe: I honestly don’t know how you start over there without selling the team, especially as Dick Monfort’s son is their scouting director.

Ozzie: Is Justin Turner done? He looks pretty terrible at the plate so far and he cannot play defense.

Jay Jaffe: He’s looking pretty cooked right now. I don’t see a lot to mitigate the ugly slash line.

Guest: If they keep this up Aaron Judge will have the best season many of us have ever seen and Trent Grisham will lead the Yankees in home runs. Now one of these things seems unlikely but if it does happen does Grisham cost Judge a couple of MVP votes?

Jay Jaffe: not to be pedantic but Judge has the edge on Grisham in homers. There’s nothing in his track record to suggest he’ll sustain a 48-homer pace, and there’s no way a voter is going to overlook what Judge is doing even if his teammates — Goldschmidt is hitting .350! — are having great seasons.

Smiling Politely: Is there any chance of relegation talk being taken seriously in MLB in the next 10 years?

Jay Jaffe: there’s a greater chance I’ll be the Playboy Playmate of the Year

Jay Jaffe: i know the promotion and relegation system has its allure but it is utterly impossible to pull off within a system where even the crummy franchises are worth hundreds of million dollars and the gap in facilities between a Triple-A ballpark and a major league one is so vast.

Jay Jaffe: there isn’t a single owner of a baseball team or a single member of the players union who looks at promotion/relegation and thinks, “yes, that’s what Major League Baseball needs”

Jeremy: Are the Guardians frauds? They’re 24-17 vs. a BaseRuns record of 17-24.

Jay Jaffe: They’re 8-2 in one-run games, which is how you get imbalances like that. I suspect the truth lies somewhere in the middle — they’re a .500ish team with a middling offense and middling pitching.

AL Central Casting: As a kid (late 80s/early 90s), someone told me that when a home plate umpire requests help on a checked swing call, the hand he uses – right or left – is a signal to the base umpire. One hand means “make the call as you see it” and the other means “don’t overrule me.” It seemed true to me at the time, but again, I was a kid and I had no good way to verify it. Have you ever heard of this? Could it be true, and if so, could it really remain a secret?

Jay Jaffe: never heard that one. They’re pointing to first base for right-handed batters, third base for left-handed ones because their views are less impeded.

Bullock: Do you have a player whose stats make you go, “dang, I never considered this guy a serious HOF candidate, but it’s hard to deny this”?  For me it’s Berkman (higher wOBA, wRC+, more career Offense runs than David Ortiz while playing the field)

Jay Jaffe: Longoria sort of fits that mold, because of the solid JAWS and despite the dearth of other markers. Abreu might be in that camp as well, though his power/speed/OBP combo was flashier

Question Man: Think we’ll end up seeing four playoff teams out of the NLW? Or will one of PHI/NYM squeeze out the fourth NLW team?

Jay Jaffe: I suspect we’ll get “only” three NL West teams in the playoffs. Part of the reason that division looks so strong is that the teams have played fewer intradivisonal games than any other division. The Rockies have played 13, the rest only 5 to 8. They’re gonna beat up on each other at some point.

Bubba: Does Judge pass Trout in WAR at some point?

Jay Jaffe: Color me skeptical. Judge has to make up another ~30 WAR, and while Trout is having epic difficulties staying on the field, there’s zero chance he walks away from the millions of dollars he has guaranteed through 2030.

Chappy: Re: Fringe HOF candidates improving themselves – I don’t know that he’ll actually get there, but if you squint juuuuust hard enough, you can see Matt Chapman aging gracefully and getting enough love as a Defense Maestro come Hall of Fame time.

I admit that it’s a long shot, but rooting for guys like that to round out their careers is as much fun as watching the surefire candidates knock down milestone after milestone.

Jay Jaffe: In Arenado, Machado, and Ramirez we’ve got a nice crowd of HOF-bound 3B, but Chapman is at 36.5 for WAR7 and has banked three 7-WAR seasons including one last year, with low-hanging fruit padding out that peak score. It’s not out of the question he could make a late run.

I’m not so optimistic about my stealth candidate, Marcus Semien — whom I probably should have mentioned above. he’s still underwater, failing to benefit from my reverse jinx powers

Annual HOF summer article: So is this the last year you bother to include Judge on the annual “what he’s done for his HOF chances” list and just throw him in the intro with the Verlander types? (Not that he’s at 80WAR but the WAR7 is nuts)

Jay Jaffe: we’ll see 😉

12 to 6: i have reached the point of legitimate “this might be over” with respect to bobby miller. not exactly steve blass disease, but he seems to have completely lost command and control. thoughts?

Jay Jaffe: Young pitchers get hurt all the time, alas. Some of them never get it back. I’m not ready to give up on Bobby Miller yet given the raw stuff and I don’t think the Dodgers are either but he’s a mess, and getting to the bottom of it — are there mental factors that are exacerbating his control issues? physical ones that he’s not being straightforward about with the team? — is the next order of business

MF Luder: Maybe this has been asked before, but does Alex Bregman project to be a Hall of Famer?

Jay Jaffe: He’s got the same WAR7 as Chapman, 36.5, and is a point ahead of him in JAWS, but he’s further removed from his bset seasons. They both have a lot of work to do in  the next few years to convince me they’re on a HOF path.

Jay Jaffe: Ok folks, I’m running out of time here. Thanks so much for stopping by!