Jay Jaffe FanGraphs Chat – 5/27/25

Jay Jaffe: Good afternoon, folks! I hope you all had great holiday weekends here. The weather in NYC was great, allowing for a lot of outdoor time — I avoided Friday night’s rain at Citi Field and caught Dodgers-Mets the next night. Wrote about Will Smith and Dalton Rushing in a piece that will be up soon.

Jay Jaffe: On Friday, I wrote about the Astros’ Christian Walker (https://blogs.fangraphs.com/christian-walker-hasnt-fixed-the-astros-fi…), who hit a walker-off home run yesterday. (sorry, not sorry)

Jay Jaffe: if you missed “Pete Rose, Shoeless Joe, and the Hall of Fame” — the SABR roundtable I did with Rose biographer Keith O’Brien, ESPN reporter Don Van Natta Jr., and Black Sox expert Jacob Pomrenke, it’s now up on YouTube here

Jay Jaffe: and with that, let’s chat…

KC: Mayer has looked solid so far but the Red Sox are flailing, can we expect Roman soon to try to add more offense with Bregman out for a while?

Jay Jaffe: no sooner had I written about a set of twists and turns in the Red Sox infield — Trevor Story’s slump, Kristian Campbell’s work at first base, and Marcelo Mayer’s work at second (https://blogs.fangraphs.com/trevor-storys-slump-and-the-never-ending-s…) than Bregman got injured, leading the Sox to try Mayer out at third.

Jay Jaffe: I think there’s a lane where they call up Anthony to play center, or left while Duran plays center

Jay Jaffe: But with Campbell scuffling and Mayer now arrived, that’s a lot of rookies whose transitions need a close eye

Jay Jaffe: Wouldn’t surprise me if we see Anthony sometime next month and if we see a trade later in the summer — Rafaela or Abreu —  to clear some more playing time for him.

Tony: Thinking about it this morning, with most considering Judge a Hall of Fame lock at this point, shouldn’t that also basically make deGrom one, too? Or is Judge’s peak compared to his peers that much higher than deGrom’s compared to his?

Jay Jaffe: The problem is volume. Judge, despite his late start, has a reasonable shot at getting to HR and WAR totals that scan as HOF-worthy. DeGrom has 88 wins, 1,728 K’s and 46.8 WAR, numbers that are short of a bunch of pitchers voters have bypassed in recent years, and he doesn’t even have enough volume to stand out as a Koufax-like exception, as i sort of envisioned here in 2021:  https://blogs.fangraphs.com/jacob-degrom-might-be-blazing-his-way-to-c…

Jay Jaffe: Now, if he stays healthy and dominant for a few more seasons — stop laughing, you! — maybe the conversation shifts but he still has heavy lifting to do.

Mr. Burrito: if Rose is elected to the HOF does that pave the way for Bonds, Clemens, Palermo and others? I know not all cheating is created equal, but at least drug users were trying to win..

Jay Jaffe: If Rose is elected to the Hall of Fame, then voters should consider the “integrity, sportsmanship, character” section of the voting rules a dead letter. One cannot possibly reconcile that requirement with a player who committed baseball’s capital crime and was unrepentant during his lifetime. That said, the Hall controls who gets on the small committees, and we have ample evidence of their heavy hand in choosing voters with obvious leanings towards or against certain candidates. So I think it’s going to be very hard for Bonds et al to have the kind of favorable panels that could lead to their election (I think it will be hard for Rose too, as noted in that roundtable and my other coverage; https://blogs.fangraphs.com/say-it-aint-so-commissioner-manfred-posthu…)

Dan Norman Lear: On the scale of overreactions to small sample sizes, how much of an  overreaction has there been to Soto’s start of season, on a scale of 1-100?

Jay Jaffe: about an 80. He’s underperformed but he’s been good, not unlike how he did when he was first traded to the Padres, but the fishbowl of New York amplifies that, and some of the silly stuff that certain old white men have projected on him just doesn’t hold much water.

Jay Jaffe: And here’s my Will Smith piece https://blogs.fangraphs.com/dodgers-look-to-sustain-will-smiths-except…

Farhandrew Zaidman: Hey Jay! Who is your modern day “Hall of Very Good” player? This question brought to you by Nate Eovaldi, currently #10 in active K leaders, with a cool 3.97 ERA in 1639.2 IP.

Jay Jaffe: I’ve got a million of ’em. Andy Pettitte, Mark Buehrle, Evan Longoria, Jimmy Wynn, Willie Davis, Reggie Smith…

Jay Jaffe: Among active players, Corey Seager and Trea Turner come to mind as they’re a couple beats behind Lindor and Correa (the gap between those two is widening, too).

Jay Jaffe: if Marcus Semien can’t shake out of this slump, he’s another.

Jay Jaffe: Mike Petriello’s arguments to the contrary, I’m not sure I can see Zack Wheeler getting strong HOF consideration and am rather lukewarm on him myself given his late start and modest counting stats. deGrom too, mainly due to the injuries

Marcus Semien: It’s been a month since you wrote about me, and I somehow looked even more cooked at the plate than I did in April. How long do the keep getting chances with my contract and status in the organization?

Jay Jaffe: It’s grim. The thing about the Rangers is that they’re not getting much from 1B (Burger), DH (Joc) or their outfield besides Langford (Carter and García have both been bad). The thing is, with Seager out due to a hamstring strain, the most likely replacement for Semien, Josh Smith, is already in the lineup. Maybe when Seager returns, Smith gets some play at second.

Mr. Burrito: Also, are you at all worried that the Dodgers starters are burning down the Dodgers bullpen? At what point do they need to trade for an innings eater?

Jay Jaffe: in-season, the general assumption should always be that nobody is going to trade for anybody substantial until July, and I expect the Dodgers fit into that bucket. Glasnow is working his way back, Kershaw looked good before rain curtailed his second start, Snell is finally throwing again, Shohei faced live hitters for the first time on Sunday… they’ve got a lot on the way. I know they’re concerned but I believe they’ll try to solve things internally for as long as they can

ML: As a Tigers fan, I feel very fortunate to have watched Verlander and Scherzer in their primes but I don’t know if I ever saw anything as crazy as Skubal ending his Maddux with a 103 mph fastball.

Jay Jaffe: He’s unreal. I haven’t read Ben Clemens’ piece yet today but i’m looking forward to it https://blogs.fangraphs.com/the-multifaceted-tarik-skubal/

Northsider: I know I’m splitting hairs since they are play great baseball, but is the Cub’s struggling Bullpen due to ownership hubris or bad luck in talent not panning out?

Jay Jaffe: I think it’s the latter, and your selective attention. Guys like Brasier and Pressly had reasonably good performances and good stuff last year but haven’t pitched well, but then guys like Thielbar and Keller, who didn’t pitch well last year, have improved, and Pomeranz and Palencia have been lights out in a small sample.

Guest: Do you think Altuve’s move to LF adversely affects his HoF candidacy, or is it irrelevant because there’s nothing that will affect his candidacy more than the scandal? I think you have him as the 20th-ish best 2b (which puts him in the hall), but in LF his WAR could go backwards.

Jay Jaffe: I don’t think the move to LF is going to matter much to his HOF case unless he’s totally cooked and winds up not augmenting what are currently light counting stats. Since he’s been the one Astro most frequently exonerated regarding the sign stealing (he reportedly told his teammates not to signal him), I don’t see that as having an impact either.

The Amazing Kreskin: Looking into your crystal ball, who will be the better and/or safer pitcher 3 years from now? Roki Sasaki or Chase Burns

Jay Jaffe: I’m not a prospect guy, and while I know Sasaki has scuffled in the majors thus far (see https://blogs.fangraphs.com/rokis-rocky-rookie-season-takes-a-rough-tu…), Burns has just 40.2 IP as a professional and hasn’t pitched above Double-A. A lot can happen but I’ll take the guy who has succeeded (at least intermittently) against high-level competition.

Lucas: What do you see the Phillies doing at the trade deadline? They are doing well now, but they still need a solid reliever and OF help

Jay Jaffe: Every contender needs another reliever, always and forever, so that’s rarely interesting to discuss. To my eyes, the Phillies need a whole new outfield, and I’d expect them to be focused there barring significant turnarounds (turns-around?).

Matt VW: Any chance the Red Sox trade Duran instead of Rafaela or Abreu? They’d get more for him and they haven’t made the same long term commitment to him that they have to other younger players (Rafaela included).

Jay Jaffe: Doubtful. Duran is the best of them and even if they’re going year-to-year, they value him more highly. Rafaela probably didn’t merit the big investment but has some value as a utilityman if nothing else; I think Abreu is the one they view as being in the sweet spot in terms of valuable from a control standpoint and replaceable from a talent one.

beleaguered: A broad question: at what point do you and your colleagues begin attributing the success of an organization’s pitching to the organization itself? I want to believe that the Royal’s pitching successes this year and last are signs of an improved development program, but I’m also aware that many of their success stories were really incidental. Ragans had already begun overhauling his stuff at Tread, Lugo was already good when they acquired him, etc.

Jay Jaffe: We meet every Thursday at 10:37 AM ET and decide how to apportion credit…

Jay Jaffe: I kid, of course. Even if pitchers individually go outside the organization for help improving, the team plays a huge role in maintaining that, and in acquiring coachable players, so a good amount of the credit is due for the Royals here

Paul Goldschmidt: My contact quality is down compared to last year, but so is my K%, and my contact rates are way up. Obviously I won’t hit .345 all season, but do you buy I can keep this contact-oriented approach up for the next 1-2 years?

Jay Jaffe: I think it’s been an effective tradeoff and it will be enough to keep him employed for a few more years, but realistically I wouldn’t bet heavily on success continuing at a high level a long time for any 37-year-old.

Jay Jaffe: I do think he’s HOF-bound, btw. Soon he’ll be above all three standards among first basemen (career/peak/JAWS)

Tigers Fan: Were there other Blacksox players other than Shoeless Joe worthy of a HoF look

Jay Jaffe: Eddie Cicotte has numbers that scan as borderline (48.4 JAWS, 209 wins, 123 ERA+) but he’s literally one of the players who sought out gamblers for the fix, so I don’t see him getting anywhere close to a ballot. Buck Weaver may not have actively partaken in the fix but wasn’t anywhere close to HOF caliber and didn’t even get his 10 seasons in to qualify for consideration. The other Black Sox besides Jackson fall somewhere between those two poles — not good enough for long enough, and also culpable. Don’t wait up.

Sodo Mojo: With Cole Young recent hot streak (172 WRC+) over the last month why have the Mariners not called him up especially with Polonco recent slump?>

Jay Jaffe: Probably at least in part because Polanco did so well earlier in the season that his job isn’t in danger. I suspect Young will get a look at 2B sometime in the not-too-distant future since the M’s have had to cobble things together with their injuries, so I’d keep an eye on how often he’s getting reps there at Tacoma (not many, lately).

Farhandrew Zaidman: Which current managers do you think are destined for Cooperstown as a manager? I guess I’m surprised there are only 24 all time – that’s a WAY lower hit rate than players, isn’t  it?

Jay Jaffe: Getting to Coooerstown is hard! Bochy, Roberts and Francona have probably all checked the boxes they need for election. Counsell is building a case but needs more postseason success. Everybody else has a lot more work to do.

Reasonable Shot: I mean, if anyone is in Koufax-peak territority right now it’s probably Judge, right? But I actually think he’s going to end up with a WAR total fairly similar to Pedro (peak heavy low 80s) which I think makes sense alongside his “no righty has done this” wRC+/WAR peak seasons with lowered offense the way Pedro’s PED mastery worked out.

Jay Jaffe: I’m reluctant to compare HOF hitter and pitcher candidates to each other but yes, Judge is probably the most Koufax-like. He’s only got 1,106 hits right now and it still seems clear he’s done the heavy lifting for the Hall

Petey Bienel: Ken Rosenthal observed that MacKenzie Gore is at the same distance to free agency as Juan Soto was when the Nationals dealt him, and as a Boras client, the likelihood of agreeing to an extension before free agency is low. Can you think of a comparable pitcher dealt at the deadline recently?

Jay Jaffe: Offhand i can’t think of a starting pitcher in Gore’s position control-wise being the headliner of a deadline trade but the comp to Soto is off base — Soto had clearly established himself among the game’s elite hitters by that point and it was obvious it would take a mint to sign him. Gore is a good pitcher who may become a great one but he ain’t there yet.

Kevin: What’s something you know about baseball you didn’t know five or ten years ago?

Jay Jaffe: The extent to which teams can now help craft new pitches thanks to technology and analytics is a big one for me, but I bet we’re gonna wind up learning so much about swings with the new bat-tracking metrics that it will be huge.

Sonny: deGrom needs X seasons at current levels to make the Hall? What about Gerrit Cole post TJ? He felt closer based on more traditional stats but the injury at this age throws a wrench in things

Jay Jaffe: There’s no real point in solving for X for a 37-year-old pitcher with two TJs — we haven’t seen the BBWAA elect any starter with fewer than 200 wins since Koufax, and it was 17 years before that when they elected the previous one (Dazzy Vance, who came close with 197). Even if you imagine JdG can average 15 wins per year he would still need 7 seasons after this one to get there, which isn’t realistic.

Now, of course we’re probably heading for the day when a starter with fewer than 200 wins does get elected, but I still think that pitcher is going to have to get in the ballpark of Koufax, and Cole is at least nearly there (153 vs. 165). But he’s got a lot of work to do on the WAR/JAWS front to look like a strong candidate.

Corey Seager: will be a hall of famer I think

Jay Jaffe: can’t even stay on the field.

Jay Jaffe: If he could, i’d be optimistic, but we’re talking about a player with 1 season of more than 140 games out of the past 8.

Alec: Will Warren has put together a solid month of production, 7 strikeouts in each of his last four starts including the rain-shortened outing on Sunday. What have you liked most about his performances so far, and do you like his chances to contend for AL RoY?

Jay Jaffe: I’m a big fan of pitchers who can miss bats and generate groundballs, and he’s been exceptional in the former and above-average in the latter. I think he’s in the ROY picture but he’s going to need to sustain this performance for awhile to have a shot especially given what Jacob Wilson and Carlos Narvaez are doing.

Shaq_diesel: Will the Rays play a playoff game in the Stein, if they get there?  A potential LCS and even a World Series in a MiLB ballpark?

Jay Jaffe: I’d bank that they move them to Miami for the playoffs, at least after the Wild Card round — if they even make it that far (29.1% odds). I can’t see MLB standing for the revenue hit they’d take by hosting an extended run in such a small ballpark

Ken: He didn’t have a great career like Jackson, Rose, or even Cicotte, but are your thoughts any different when it comes to Buck Weaver? If memory serves, he only knew what the others were doing, but didn’t get involved.

Jay Jaffe: He’s in the Hall of Teachable Moments.

Jay Jaffe: Solid player, not a star; from 1915–20 he had a 99 OPS+ while averaging 2.9 WAR.

Ken: Yankees are looking for rotation help and a right handed bat, who can handle 3B. Who do you think they’ll get?

Jay Jaffe: Yoan Moncada is my best guess. Switch-hitter having a nice rebound year on a going-nowhere team.

Ken: Some of the A’s players are grumbling about the AAA stadium. Is there any pressure the union can put on MLB to do something else (e.g. go back to the Coliseum until the Vegas stadium is built), or was the grievance threat to get Fisher to spend some all that mattered?

Jay Jaffe: Barring something catastrophic, I doubt the union can do much besides extracting minor concessions at this stage.

Andrew Rohrman: Hey Jay – to what extent do you think a player’s playoff success should contribute to their legacy, when it comes to Hall of Fame voting? Zack Wheeler may be the poster child for this discussion – his counting stats and accolades are sorely lacking, but his peak and sustained dominance in the playoffs to me open the door for legitimate HoF candidacy.

Jay Jaffe: It’s a factor but if Andy Pettitte’s postseason volume  isn’t enough to get him over the hump, I don’t see where Wheeler, with better run prevention in a smaller sample (but no rings) isn’t going to get it done.

Jay Jaffe: the October heroics of Bumgarner and Lester won’t be enough given their career numbers, so unless he turns into Bob Gibson…

M’s fan: What do you make of the M’s: pretender or contender?

Jay Jaffe: Contender. Improved offense and still a lot of starting pitching.

RS: It’s an arbitrary mark of course, but all the non-PED 500 HR guys are in the HoF. There are active players like Schwarber and Eugenio Suarez who have a plausible shot to get there but will fall way short of any WAR-based standards. Do you think enough Hall voters will vote yes based on the shiny number or is there a critical mass that’s sophisticated enough to keep them out?

Jay Jaffe: I don’t think their shots are all that plausible because their all-around games aren’t strong enough to withstand huge dropoffs in production and — this is key — their batting averages are already low (nobody below Ray Schalk’s .253 enshrined, and even the most Schwarber-like slugger, Harmon Killebrew, is at .256, 25 points higher than KS). Schwarber is already a DH with serious negative defensive value and a ton of swing and miss. Suarez is a solid defender and prolific slugger but he has a 112 career wRC+ and that’s not going to stand out.

Sean A: Hey Jay! Wondering what the skin color of the Soto detractors has to do with the criticism? You referred to them as ‘old white men’ in a previous chat as well.

Jay Jaffe: Go look up how often white guys get accused of not hustling, and check out the demographics of press boxes. My point is that players of color are always under a magnifying glass, particularly if they’re well-paid and in a major media market, and inevitably some writer — generally older, where the demographics skew whiter than a ballplayer’s home uniform — is going to take a cheap shot the moment they smell blood. We saw it over and over again with Robinson Canó when he had hustle issues too, and without looking, I’d bet on some of the culprits being the same.

Mike Lommler: Sort of an aside from your piece on Will Smith and Dalton Rushing today: Did Carson Kelly legitimately improve his, well, everything? Superficially the plate discipline improvement looks insane, and he’s also hitting the ball harder, it seems. He’s outperforming his xstats but the xstats are still terrific, especially for a catcher.

Jay Jaffe: Kelly is on my list as somebody to look into — he’s having a bonkers season

Elliott: Why are relief pitchers the most volatile position? Not enough innings/batters faced to have everything even out?

Jay Jaffe: Small samples even under the best of circumstances, and as Jim Bouton famously observed, you’re never more than a few outings away from being out of a job.

El Tim: Will you (or another FG writer) be checking in on Mookie’s defense so far? It’s very early, but so far, he’s been roughly a top 5 SS by most measures. Which, what?

Jay Jaffe: Another one on my list.

Jay Jaffe: Ok folks, that’s enough out of me for today. Thanks for stopping by!