Jay Jaffe FanGraphs Chat – 6/17/25

Jay Jaffe: Howdy, folks! Welcome to another edition of my weekly chat! It’s a grey day in Brooklyn as we’re amid a week of rainy weather, and I’ve got the occasional sounds of workers demolishing our rotting backyard deck right outside my window (https://bsky.app/profile/jayjaffe.bsky.social/post/3lrst55laqs2y).

Jay Jaffe: Yesterday I wrote about Cole Ragans’ rotator cuff strain and the state of the Royals’ rotation https://blogs.fangraphs.com/the-royals-have-lost-cole-ragans-for-awhil…

Jay Jaffe: Today I’ve got a piece on Jo Adell that should be published sometime during this chat. He had a dreadful March/April but has been very good since the start of May, and especially good in June.

Matt VW: Do you think the Devers trade would have still been there in two weeks? As a Red Sox fan, I hate the deal but would have to concede that the timing of it made it feel even worse than it was.

Jay Jaffe: Good question. This deal is a noteworthy exception to my recent declaration about how few substantial trades happen in May or June, with everybody looking to the deadline. I’ve seen conflicting reports about the extent to which the Red Sox tried to trade Devers — how many teams they spoke to besides the Giants. Given the underwhelming return, it sure doesn’t feel as though they dealt him to the highest bidder, and they’d have gotten more for him at a higher-leverage period in late July. Then again, this trade appears to be primarily about dumping his salary and sending a my-way-or-the-highway message to the impressionable youths in the Red Sox clubhouse.

Jay Jaffe: I don’t think there would have been much harm for the Sox in waiting at least until the end of June, but if they had continued winning, they might have talked themselves out of it. This way they get to look like hardasses, which as we know is the most important part of being a baseball executive.

Matt: Hey Jay, between Machado, Ramirez and Arenado, who would you give the best odds for HOF induction? The worst? Thanks for your great work on HOF articles and general FG content!

Jay Jaffe: I think they all get there but I’d probably go Ramírez, Machado, Arenado in order of likelihood. A larger share of Arenado’s value comes from defense, his offensive totals are boosted by his time at Coors Field, and he’s been pretty ordinary over the past two-plus seasons. Machado has a legitimate chance at 3,000 hits, as I noted last week (https://blogs.fangraphs.com/the-manny-machado-revival/), though he doesn’t have the good-guy reputation that Ramírez has; indeed, he’s been cast as the villain quite often for a superstar.

Colton: We’ve seen a lot of top prospects made their debut this season. Who is the next “big” prospect to make their mark on the big leagues this season?

Jay Jaffe: Maybe Andrew Painter? His raw numbers aren’t so hot due to a couple of recent bad starts, and I don’t have a scouting report but the Phillies, like everyone else in contention, are going to need more pitching, and he’s the top prospect in that department.

Billy Bob: is there a HR or WAR number that Cal Raleigh could hit to be your MVP?(assuming health to Judge)

Jay Jaffe: I don’t have a number in mind, but it’s going to be very difficult to pick against a guy who might win the traditional and slash-stat Triple Crowns, exceed 10 WAR again, AND challenge his own AL home run record.

Lowe Distribution System: Let’s ask the obvious question: is Devers on a HOF path?  Is he still if he’s a 1B/DH from here on?

Jay Jaffe: I don’t see him as such, no. he’s only had one 5-bWAR season, and only two above 4.0 bWAR, because his subpar defense at 3B weighs him down — though not as much as full-time DH duty will. He’s leaving behind an excellent hitter’s park for a difficult one. if he gets to 500 homers he’s got a fighting chance, I guess, but it’s not like he’s young Giancarlo Stanton; he has 215 nearing the halfway point of his age-29 season.

MF Luder: Are you participating in Michael Baumann’s Fan Exchange? I’m giving it a try and watching a few Marlins games—should be some combination of fun and interesting.

Jay Jaffe: no, because the teams I watch the most — the Dodgers, Yankees, Mets, and Padres, roughly in that order — are too compelling.

Carl: How much does Devers actually help the Giants?  Enough to catch the Dodgers?

Jay Jaffe: Even if Devers closes up one big hole in the lineup — and he most certainly does — they’re still not getting much offense from catcher or the middle infield, and they only have two good starting pitchers. The Dodgers have underperformed due to injuries but they just have more depth, including that fella who pitched the first inning last night.

Hazmat Corntail: is Matt Shaw looking like another version of Ke’Bryan Hayes? Shaw has more lift in the swing and Hayes is obviously a better defender, but when I look at the other numbers, they seem really similar.

Jay Jaffe: I think it’s a big mistake to judge a prospect who’s scuffled a bit during his first two months in comparison to a guy who’s spent about half a decade failing to live up to his expectations.

Jay Jaffe: That said, you’d obviously like to see Shaw hit the ball harder than — good grief — an average of 82.6 mph

Guest: Kyle Harrison, good fastball and not much else. Is it unrealistic to think his career trajectory is more like Tony Cingrani as a fastball heavy reliever with a couple good years?

Jay Jaffe: The stuff hasn’t shown up at the big league level yet but I wouldn’t give up hope that a few tweaks here and there can help him live up to his billing as a 55-FV prospect.

Hazmat Corntail: Are we still looking at Josh Jung as a guy with upside, or is he just what he is, decent power and average hitter who will streak and slump his way to fine numbers, but nothing you won’t want to upgrade from?

Jay Jaffe: It’s hard to judge Jung because he’s missed so much time due to injuries, some of which (the fractures) have been freakish in nature. He’s played fewer games since 2023 than he did that season. That said, it’s understandable to expect more from him; his average exit velo is down 4 mph from 2023, and that suggests he needs some fixing.

Jay Jaffe: OK, here’s the piece on Jo Adell https://blogs.fangraphs.com/jo-adell-remains-a-work-in-progress-but-he…

Q-Ball: Hey Jay!  I stay out on Pleasant Point every year (on Blackfish Creek), and kayak all the time up into Drummer’s Cove.  Let me know when you’re around, and you can stand in line for me at PB!

Jay Jaffe: heading up to Wellfleet in late June, a couple weeks later than we have been going because we’re on a different school calendar than before. Looking forward to it!

Devers trade: I feel like all the spreadsheet heads (I say this as one myself) calling this trade a win for the Red Sox because they get financial flexibility are completely missing the human element. They just traded away their best hitter while in a playoff spot. A guy who has won a ring for them and is in year two of a ten year contract. And this is after trading away a future hall of famer, explicitly so they could afford said contract. Like, that financial flexibility is completely worthless, because no one is ever signing with them again without a massive overpay.

Jay Jaffe: The thing I keep coming back to is that being a superstar in Boston means being exactly one step from management running you out of town on a rail. I don’t know how anyone considering a long-term contract in Boston can have any faith that they’ll complete the deal there, but then for the player that may not be the whole point — locking in the high salary is, and putting up with the bullshit that comes from being employed by John Henry and a by-no-means permanent POBO is part of the deal.

Theo be Praised: Coming into this year I was a Michael Busch skeptic.  Was I wrong to be skeptical?  What’s Busch doing this year differently?

Jay Jaffe: I think last year he showed he can be a productive major league regular, and this year he’s chasing less, striking out WAY less (down 5.5%), and making better contact, including more pull and almost no pop-ups.

Jay Jaffe: I don’t think you were wrong to be skeptical — we all want to see if a player can improve upon a solid rookie season, especially one who was an over-aged rookie (he was 26 last year)

MF Luder: I know you get peppered with Hall of Fame questions, but here’s another: Framber Valdez—fringe HOF candidate?

Jay Jaffe: I wouldn’t call any active starting pitcher beyond Kershaw/Verlander/Scherzer and Sale more than a fringe HOFer right now, and Framber, who has 17.7 career bWAR, isn’t close to the line where I’d think about him. He’s checked a few boxes, postesason-wise, and has some good run prevention relative to the league, but his high for bWAR is 4.4, his second-highest is 3.4. He needs some huge seasons to emerge as even a “real” fringe candidate

MF Luder: Do you think Bryce Eldridge was off the table in the Devers deal?

Jay Jaffe: yes

Alf: Hi Jay! Overthinking Giants fan here. Forgetting all of the position-changing drama between Devers and the Red Sox, how big of a defensive sacrifice would the Giants be making by trying him at second base? With top hitting prospect Bryce Eldridge being groomed for first at AAA and the obvious problem of sticking a 28 year old with eight and a half years left of his contract at DH, should the Giants consider it (or perhaps try it next spring)?

Jay Jaffe: Second base is further to the right on the defensive spectrum, meaning that it’s generally considered harder to play. Devers’ big problem is his lateral mobility, and he’s a big boy so… of all the things that aren’t going to happen, this is one of them.

Maddoning: It’s not great seeing Mike Trout be mortal.  For the record, he’s already going to the HoF on your ballot, right?  Regardless of what happens now?

Jay Jaffe: absolutely, unless he’s involved in some kind of scandal. The guy reached the JAWS standard for center fielders before his 27th birthday! https://blogs.fangraphs.com/mike-trout-is-now-an-average-hall-of-famer…

MF Luder: Trevor Story has looked like his old self in June. Too soon to say he’s ‘back’?

Jay Jaffe: .241/.292/.410 (91 wRC+) since I wrote about him on May 22, with barrel and hard-hit rates within a point of his season averages. Yes, too early to say he’s “back”

Guest: It can’t be true the Sox didn’t communicate with other teams and give them a chance can it? As a Phillies fan I would think they had a more attractive package to offer and a pitcher with a contract they’d like to include in T. Walker. I would think ABEL, T. Walker, Marsh or Rojas and a prospect not named Craw-Miller or Painter would be a nice get…

Jay Jaffe: Where would the Phillies play Devers given Harper at first and Schwarber at DH? Surely not at third base given that he hasn’t played there all season and was trending badly before.

Judging by the return I think the Sox prioritized getting the whole contract off their books ahead of getting high-quality talent in return, and beyond the positional fit, I’m not convinced Philadelphia would have eaten it all.

Blake: What does Altuve need to make the HOF at this point? Does he need another big season to boost his peak (in a JAWS7 kind of way)? Milestones? Counting stat accumulation? DRS has been brutal to Altuve with -11 (3rd worst in the majors) resulting in a -0.2 bWAR for the year to date. OAA has been much kinder at a mere -1, to go along with a 1.0 fWAR.

Jay Jaffe: I think it’s mostly accumulation and milestones. he’s at 2,306 hits, and has a good shot at 3,000 (41% based on ZiPS as noted in the Machado piece)

Jay Jaffe: I think he’ll be light in JAWS (he’s at 46.5, 0.1 ahead of Pedroia and 0.4 ahead of Kinsler) but if he gets to about 50, the trad stats and reputation will probably carry the day.

Cool Lester Smooth: Hi Jay!  Just wanted to know if you’ve checked out the Pitcher View on Savant’s OAA leaderboard – it gives you the absolute number of Fielding Run Value for each individual pitcher.

Jay Jaffe: Not in awhile. It’s an interesting look at who’s been helped the most/least based on their metrics. See https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/leaderboard/outs_above_average?type=Pit…

’23 Yankees Survivor: Yankees offense has fallen silent over the last five games, have you seen reason for concern going forward or is it just a natural dip in production during the season?

Jay Jaffe: Right now i’d chalk it up to the ebb and flow of the season, but it’s not great that Goldschmdt, Bellinger, Rice, Grisham, and Dominguez have all been terrible lately, with a 77 wRC+ or worse over the past 14 days

Chili Davis Eyes: Zack Wheeler says he’s retiring when his contract is up. If so, that puts the kibosh on his already somewhat-slim HoF chances, right?

Jay Jaffe: To these eyes, probably. He’s only at 37.5 bWAR, ranks 182nd in S-JAWS, and has two All-Star appearances. I can name 20 guys with 50 bWAR I’d give stronger consideration to.

Tacoby Bellsbury: How long do you think Shohei Ohtani will be able to pitch and bat before hanging up his glove (or transitioning back to the outfield)?

Jay Jaffe: I wish I knew. I’d think at least a few years but obviously a major injury – and not even an arm one — could derail that.

>this guy with boring questions<: Jay, in your opinion, which team or player is biggest positive surprise this year so far, and which is negative?

Jay Jaffe: Teamwise, I didn’t expect the Tigers to be the AL’s best or anywhere near this good, and likewise, I didn’t expect the Giants to be this strong, even given the caveats above. On the negative, even while criticizing the Orioles’ inability to offset the loss of Burnes, I didn’t expect them to stink on ice, and the Braves’ crash is pretty surprising.

Polar Bear: There’s been a lot of talk about whether 500 home runs means the HOF for Stanton.  What about Pete?  Would 500 home runs be an automatic ticket?  If not, what else would he need to do?  He doesn’t look like a Hall of Famer (though either does Stanton), but he is halfway to 500 at 30, despite debuting at 24 and missing 2/3 of a season in 2020.

Jay Jaffe: I certainly think 500 would give him a chance but… I’m not seeing much of a resumé here given that he’s only got one 5-WAR season (his rookie year) — though TBF he’s on pace for a second — and has had more decent seasons than great ones. He’s got 22.7 bWAR midway through his age-30 season and his defense is trending towards full-time DH duty at some point.

Guest: of the 57 players with 650+ PA vs RHP since the start of 2024, Goldschmidt ranks 56th with an 89 wRC+ (Volpe 57th but they don’t really have a SS logjam) – it seems pretty unpopular to short side platoon this, and surely the yankees knew he struggled last year vs RHP when they signed him. seems like the right move though? (until Stanton gets hurt again…)

Jay Jaffe: Yeah, it’s tough to imagine it happening full-scale but at the very least, with Stanton back it would make good sense to spot Ben Rice (132 wRC+ against righties this year) against some righties. Whether Aaron Boone and the Yankees have the will to try it, we’ll see.

Pistol Pete: Following up on your recent article, how do you see the Baty, Mauracio, Acuna, Vientos mess shaping up for this year?  2026?  Vientos is the only one who has been a reliable offensive threat, but his defense is possibly unplayable.  Baty and Mauracio can make the plays, but whether or not they can hit remains a very open question.  And Acuna has utility man written all over him (not that there’s anything wrong with that).  My guess is in 2026, Vientos is an almost fulltime DH, Acuna is the 26th man, and the third baseman is not currently on this roster.

Jay Jaffe: I think Vientos has the highest upside — we saw it last year — but the current version isn’t anywhere close to reliable, and he’s trending in the wrong direction; he’s not even hitting well enough to justify supplanting Starling Marte at DH. I suspect they trade either him or Baty this summer.

Rick: Think Jordan Walker needs a change of scenery before it’s too late? I think Marmol screwed him over last year and set him back.

Jay Jaffe: I think in two years I’ll be writing about Walker the way I write about Adell now. He’s got some loud tools but the parts just don’t fit together because he doesn’t make enough contact, and when he does, it’s not good contact often enough. Maybe a change of scenery would help, but I don’t know who’s looking at him and eager to give it a whirl.

PCA: Do you think PCA is able to maintain offensive production? As a Cubs fan I love watching him play but his low OBP and free swinging style gives me javy baez flashbacks

Jay Jaffe: His production is in line with his quality of contact despite his high chase rate, so I’m not terribly worried right now, but it wouldn’t surprise me if pitchers adjust and start throwing him even fewer strikes and pushing his production down.

jupiterbrando: Jay, it seems like every week you get asked whether some 34-year old with 30 career WAR is a fringe HoFer. But if you -had- to induct a player to the hall with 30 career WAR (or less), who would it be?

Jay Jaffe: it would probably be a Negro Leagues or pre-Negro Leagues star. I was very impressed by Cannonball Redding when I wrote him up a few years ago, and I would have voted for John Donaldson. I’m probably skirting your imagined “rules” for the question, and likewise might be even if I picked a reliever (Joe Nathan, whom I voted for and who ranks seventh in R-JAWS).

Guest: A Chapman having an under the radar amazing season.  Best ERA of his career.  *If he didn’t have off-field issues* (which are horrible and reasonably disqualifying, but let’s put them aside for the sake of the thought exercise), what would you think about his HOF case?

Jay Jaffe: I think Kenley Jansen (10th in R-JAWS, 4th in Saves) and Craig Kimbrel (18th and 5th) have uphill battles ahead of them, so Chapman (17th and 14th) probably faces an even steeper climb even if he had zero baggage. And that’s not the case

Jay Jaffe: OK ,folks, still some good questions in the queue but it’s time for me to toodle-oo. Thanks so much for stopping by!