Jay Jaffe FanGraphs Chat – 7/12/18

Jay Jaffe: Howdy, folks, and my apologies for the tardiness — my browser, which was bearing the load open tabs from about five different articles (including published ones on Shin-Soo Choo, Noath Syndergaard and Yadier Molina plus forthcoming ones on Daniel Descalso’s pitching and Ken Giles melting down), crashed and needed a reset. On with the show…

Bob: Should Sheffield really be a dealbreaker for the Yankees getting Machado?  I know his arm is electric, but do you miss out on a HoF’er because you won’t let go of a guy who hasn’t mastered his control problems in the minors?

Jay Jaffe: Even if Machado may be a future Hall of Famer, the Yankees would be giving up six-plus years of a very good pitching prospect for what amounts to a 2 1/2-month rental to fill a need that they already have covered reasonably well by either Didi Gregorius or Miguel Andujar, plus whatever need might have for Sheffield’s services later this season. That’s a very steep price to pay, and I can’t blame the Yankees for searching for alternatives.

Bo: Is Dansby Swanson going to hit enough to stay as an everyday player?

Jay Jaffe: He’ll be able to produce on both sides of the ball — remember, the offensive demands for a shortstop are relatively low — well enough to stay as a regular, yes. Even with an 85 wRC+ this year, he’s been worth 1.2 WAR thanks to above-average glovework (+3.4 UZR, +11 DRS). Based upon his track record, he’s projected to hit better ROS, and as a 24-year-old, can expect some growth in his offensive skill over the next few years. If Andrelton Simmons can become an above-average hitter in time, I don’t think it’s beyond Swanson.

stever20: how crazy was what Arizona did last night with their pitching?

Jay Jaffe: Crazy — I’ve got a post forthcoming on this, as noted above — but unfortunately necessitated due to injuries. Keeping Shelby Miller, who’s in his fourth outing off Tommy John surgery, out there for 37 pitches in the first inning is managerial malfeasance on the part of Torey Lovullo. This isn’t a tough-guy contest.

Bort: Do you think the Padres will have any luck getting Eric Hosmer to understand that they’re not paying him $144 million to hit the ball straight into the ground?

Jay Jaffe: You don’t commit $144 million to a player whose swing and style you’re desperate to change. The Padres can hope that Hosmer elevates the ball with more consistency, but they knew what they were getting, a player whom many of us felt was a mixed bag to begin with. If asking him to tinker with his swing is exacerbating his groundball tendencies, they need to back off, because warts and all, he was a pretty very productive hitter in 2 of the last 3 seasons.

stever20: Can you give me any hope as a Nats fan?  Every time you think they’re going to get going, they slip up.

Jay Jaffe: I’m still of the mind that the Nationals’ biggest problems are injury-related. Losing Wieters, Zimmerman, Murphy and Eaton was the type of blow that most teams can’t withstand for very long, and it doesn’t help that Murphy has been particularly dreadful 63 wRC+, -0.3 WAR) since returning. I think they have the talent to pull out of this, because I do think at least one of the two young teams ahead of them, the Braves and Phillies, is bound to fade sooner or later.

Bo: Ender Inciarte has the lowest wRC+ (82) of all the lineup regulars, yet continues to hit leadoff. Is CF a potential upgrade spot for the Braves?

Jay Jaffe: Inciarte’s glovework in CF is strong enough that he’s still an above-average producer (1.2 WAR thus far), but he’s way overexposed. He shouldn’t be hitting leadoff at all. Given his 53 wRC+ against lefties this yea, and 74 for his career, a platoon partner is in order. At the very least, they could give just-released righty Austin Jackson a trial and look for a bigger move at the deadline.

CT Pilgrim: Jaff, what kind of return could the Nats get for Bryce if they continue to fall out of the pennat race?

Jay Jaffe: I’m Jaffe (rhymes with taffy) not Jaff (as in Decker), and the Nationals aren’t trading Bryce.

Guest: Corey Dickerson has been worth 1.6 WAR with a 116 wRC+ being paid 6M. CJ Cron has been worth 1.3 WAR with a 122 wRC+ being paid 2.3 M. The Rays are geniuses after all???

Jay Jaffe: One look at that set of new stadium drawings and its lack of a funding plan tells me they’re not geniuses.

Grant: Will you be at HOF weekend? Out of all of the big names there, you’re the one I *definitely* need to meet.

Jay Jaffe: YES! I’ll be selling books at Willis Monie Books, 139 Main St, Cooperstown, from 1-3 PM on Saturday. Please stop by and say hi, and if you mention this chat when buying a book, I’ll give you a 12% discount ($22 instead of $25 — I don’t want to deal with pocket change)

v2micca: Is Johan Camargo making a compelling case for increased playing time in 2019?

Jay Jaffe: I think he’s doing enough such that a 3B upgrade isn’t a must-have for the Braves at the deadline.

dirty dan: Justus Sheffield, Andujar, Clint Frazier + Dillion Tate for Gausman and Machado, who says no?

Jay Jaffe: The Yankees would never give up that much talent in such a scenario.

v2micca: Assuming HOF voters don’t lower their ridiculous standards for pitchers, what else does Verlander need to do at this point to secure membership?

Jay Jaffe: if he gets to 3,000 strikeouts (he’s at 2,576), he’s probably home free, and likewise if he could bring home another Cy Young or another championship (as a central player)

Joe: Of the Phillies and the Braves, who in your estimation is likely to fall off?

Jay Jaffe: Just a guess but I’d say the Phillies, I don’t see enough offense from them.

Hose: Even though ZIPS and Steamer are pessimistic, Tim Anderson is still projected for a 20/30 season with solid SS defense. Is he underrated?

Jay Jaffe: Yeah. He’s gotten the walk rate to 6.6% this year, about 3x last year’s, and his wRC+ to 98. Throw that in with average glovework and he’s already at 1.9 WAR, likely to land in the 3-4 range. That’s a pretty solid season

Pete: What could the hold-up possibly be between a Nats/Ramos reunion? Even with Wieters back, they’re still just one freak injury away from Pedro Severino’s disasterous bat back in the line-up. Could the Rays be asking for something unreasonable?

Jay Jaffe: They’re haggling over how many trucks of Windex to send for that NeverNeverDome

YKnotDisco?!: What site has the batted ball angle charts? Like the one shown today in Dan’s post.

Jay Jaffe: I believe they’re from http://baseballsavant.mlb.com but not sure exactly where — Dan had to ask the great @darenw where to find them. Ask one of those two guys for guidance

Hard hit rate: Do you think voters will ever factor a player’s WBC success into his HoF case the way they often do with playoff success?

Jay Jaffe: Doubtful. It’s an infrequent event like the Olympics, and on that subject, players such as Pat Borders, Ben Sheets and Doug Mientkiewicz who were on the US 2000 gold medal team didn’t even get on a HOF ballot. I don’t see Roy Oswalt (eligible this winter) going over the top on that basis either.

Andrew: Regarding Molina…I just don’t understand the case that he’s a HOFer, even after reading your very informative article. It seems that he only gets in based on subjective fluff (all star games, awards, etc). Can a player’s value really be that un-quantifiable? Because there has to be a lot of value we can’t count for him to be a HOFer…

Jay Jaffe: As I said via Twitter last night on this topic, some areas within catcher defense are relatively easy to quantify (SB/CS, pitch blocking), some are harder but not impossible (framing), and some remain elusive (game calling/staff handing). Getting a good, solid estimate of value of MOST of a catcher’s work is still worthwhile, and for what we have, Molina does pretty well. There’s still some stuff we don’t know, and room enough to quibble either way, but I think the volume within the industry that feels he is worthy based upon the high-visibility things that I outlined is ultimately going to provide enough to sway the result in his favor. I’m not sure I agree with that, but let’s see how the next few years plays out.

Sam: Ken Giles sent down, what gives?

Jay Jaffe: The ERA is bad, and the Astros say they aren’t happy with how his slider looks (something I’ll take a closer look at), and it seems he’s got some issues in handling his emotions based upon both his f-bomb exit and his May 1 self-punch incident. There may be a punitive element to the demotion, but they’ve already had issues with his end-game reliability, and this is a good chance to straighten him out.

Bob: MLB is a billion dollar industry. Why should local municipalities foot majority of the bill, when teams want a new stadium?

Jay Jaffe: That’s a billion dollar question — per stadium, basically. Study after study has shown that the gains for taxpayers in funding stadiums are illusory. Check out Neil deMause’s Field of Schemes book and website for numerous examples of this kind of chicanery.

SF: Would the Yankees consider giving up either Torres or Andujar for deGrom?

Jay Jaffe: They’re not giving up Torres but yes, i think if it came to it, they’d part with Andujar for 2 1/2 controllable years of an ace-caliber pitcher.

Guest: Yankees could easily trade for Machado while giving Andujar another season to work on the glove, which has looked terrible right?

Jay Jaffe: The glove hasn’t been good (-7 UZR, -12 DRS), but I haven’t heard any complaints about his efforts to improve. Unless there are, I don’t think you can send down a kid who’s hitting that well — unless maybe he spirals into a deep slump — without risking some longer-term consequences.

Kristen: Shouldn’t the Nats be looking at Chirinos?  Would come way cheaper than Ramos.

Jay Jaffe: He seems like a decent fallback option, if the Rangers are willing to deal him, but he’s not as good a pitch framer as Ramos, nor does he have the familiarity with some members of the Nats’ pitching staff as Ramos does from his years with the team.

YKnotDisco?!: What do you make of Texas’ manager not calling on Choo to PH with a chance to win (go ahead) late in last night’s game?

Jay Jaffe: Choo’s been nursing a quad strain for several days, and Banister was more concerned with that, and his inability to play defense right now, than with the on-base streak. See https://www.star-telegram.com/sports/mlb/texas-rangers/article21457062…

Moltar: Am I off base to think that the Mets should trade everybody of value (including deGrom and Syndergaard), but that they should wait until the offseason when they can bring in a dedicated GM (or ideally an Epstein/Friedman style Prez of Ops) who can make the deal with an actual plan for the future in mind? I know their value will be at its peak at the deadline, but nothing good can come from a trade negotiated by GM Jeff Wilpon.

Jay Jaffe: That was basically my conclusion from Tuesday’s piece https://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/the-prospect-of-a-trade-looms-over-reh…

Lee: Do you think it ends up being David Ortiz who ends up breaking the PED logjam in Hall of Fame voting?  Here’s a guy that would certainly get in without any PED association.  He’s also a guy who is extremely well liked by all his contemporaries and media members.  He also has a very ambiguous connection to PED use as we don’t know if or what he tested positive for as his name ended up in leaked testing from the MItchell report.   Basically giving cover to the media to vote for him and still keep Bonds and Clemens out.    But after he gets in, do we see a thawing of attitudes towards the big fish that have been kept out due to PEDs?

Jay Jaffe: If they’re not elected sooner, Bonds and Clemens will be in their final year on the ballot in 2022, the same year that Ortiz debuts. I’m on record as believing that they’ll all be elected, though my most recent five-year outlook had Ortiz needing a 2nd year https://www.si.com/mlb/2018/01/27/baseball-hall-fame-edgar-martinez-ba…

Luke: Will the DH rule ever become uniform?  I enjoy the strategy of the double switch but I hate seeing pitchers get injured at the plate

Jay Jaffe: I think there’s a decent possibility of an MLB-wide DH as part of the next CBA or round of expansion, whichever comes later.

John : In regards to Molina, is his career WAR actually hurt by the fact (at least I believe this is true) that teams didn’t run against him and he therefore could not throw as many people out?  Moreover, does it factor in the quality of the person attempting the steal (it seems like only the fastest players try stealing on Molina)?

Jay Jaffe: Eh, a little but not that much. Roughly speaking, each CS is about 2x as valuable as each SB, so if he’s preventing SB at his usual clip (41% CS rate), he’s saving runs and if he’s not (21% CS currently), he’s costing them. You can see the impact in his RsbC column here. -2 right now, has been as high as 8 (2012), and only one person has topped that since (Russell Martin, +9 in 2013 https://www.baseball-reference.com/pi/shareit/8L3QW

Babe Lincoln: How much value does Zack Wheeler have?

Jay Jaffe: Some but not as much as deGrom or Syndergaard, obviously. He’s an adequate but not so durable number 4 starter with a year of arb-eligibility remaining. I’d say he’s much more likely to be dealt than the aforementioned pair, and I’d say the same about Matz, who’s got a lot more value in terms of club control (next year is his first of 3 arb years)

Bo: Let’s say the Braves are in the WC game… Who are they starting? Folty?

Jay Jaffe: Quite possibly Folty if he doesn’t, um, Folter down the stretch. Maybe somebody they trade for. Maybe Johnny Wholestaff.

Mister Puppy: I used to read Eno’s sandwich chats and feel guilty that I eat at subway about four times a week, the same thing every time. People tell me I could eat much better but I stubbornly refuse because I enjoy Subway. I guess my question is… am I Eric Hosmer?

Jay Jaffe: Man, I need to order some lunch, but I’m not stooping to Subway.

Rusty Dusty: Who would you choose as the starting pitcher in the All-Star game for the AL team?

Jay Jaffe: I think you can make a case for any one of 4 guys: Sale, Verlander, Bauer and Severino — all having great seasons and pretty close as far as ERA and FIP. Without investigating which of them may be on turn… here’s how I’d decide.

I don’t want to hear what Bauer has to say about it, so he’s out. Sale’s started two ASGs, Verlander one, so I’d be tempted to go with Severino in the interest of giving him the chance to do it once in his life. He’s certainly pitched well enough to do it, even if others have as well.

Bo: What do you make of the recent Norris-Hicks news?

Jay Jaffe: I didn’t think I could have a lower opinion of Matheny as a manager than I already did, but here we are. I’d launch both him and Norris into the next rocket into the sun if I could.

Unhappy taxpayers: Okay I have to bite, since I’m also not a fan. What don’t you like about the new Tampa stadium renderings?

Jay Jaffe: 1) They have an $892 million doodle and no idea how to fund it
2) turf and no retractable dome, ugh (can’t grow grass in a dome)
3) I’m extremely skeptical about the feasibility of a clear dome would work, since it didn’t in the Astrodome (they had to paint the ceiling when players couldn’t see balls). The volume of bird shit it will collect alone will make the thing a running joke.

Sam: Choo to Philadelphia?

Jay Jaffe: I don’t see them or anybody taking on the lion’s share of the $42 million he has remaining beyond this year, and that’s even if he can be an adequate full-time OF, which I’m skeptical about

Todd: Hi Jay! Have you ever attended the Winter Meetings? If so, do you think that I, just a fan, might find the experience redeeming? I’ve always had an urge to go, but I also suspect that the most likely outcome is that I find myself with nothing to do, sitting at the hotel bar, reading coverage on my phone just as I would have done at home.

Jay Jaffe: I’ve been to a half dozen of them, and while it has great value for the media and for job seekers, it’s not really something that’s geared towards fan participation. If you want to see a bunch of writers milling around while dividing their attention between renewing old acquaintances and looking at their phones while they wait for the next story to break, you need to consider finding better hobbies.

Bart: Do you answer fantasy baseball questions?

Jay Jaffe: Not really, no. I haven’t played since like 2011, though I wrote about it for a couple years after that to help pay the bills. I don’t know anything about DFS and don’t think about baseball from a fantasy POV anymore

Mister Puppy: Idea: have an opener for the ASG. Start with like Diaz. Shoutout Tampa

Jay Jaffe: Yeah, nope. There are enough starters who are far more worthy of consideration, and most of them are only going to work 1-2 innings anyway.

Babe Lincoln: To Todd re Winter Meetings.  Did the same last year in DC.  Just went as a fan.  Mostly nothing to do.  Didn’t see anything interesting.

Desperate, Confused Marlins Fan: what recent Norris-Hicks news?

Jay Jaffe: https://theathletic.com/428599/2018/07/11/bud-norris-st-louis-cardinal…

Turgid: Have you ever been to a Pret a Manger? Something about those places makes me depressed

Jay Jaffe: Despite my extreme wariness of premade sandwiches, I kind of like Pret but haven’t been to one since the SI headquarters moved from the old Time Life building in midtown.

Wes: If an expansion draft were held this winter, who would be the first pick? Same rules as in the 90s.

Jay Jaffe: Mike Trout. Seriously, anybody opining on this would have to invest hours to think about who would even be unprotected under such circumstances

Pio: How many top 25 prospects do you think get traded this month and for whom?

Jay Jaffe: Probably not all 25! Probably at least one in a Machado trade, probably more than one if deGrom/Syndergaard are moved.

Simba Snubbed: Will Mookie ever regress?

Jay Jaffe: I have August 3 as the date circled in my calendar for him to begin regressing. You’ll have to ask my secretary who booked that date.

Chris: Tyson Ross worth anything on the trade market?

Jay Jaffe: Given the weak market for SP, yes if healthy, but I don’t like the look of his last 2 outings (15 runs, 4 HR, 7 IP)

Brad: Hi Jay – curious as to your thoughts on Matt Manning, Daz Cameron and Isaac Paredes

Jay Jaffe: Beyond knowing that Daz Cameron is the son of former MLBer Mike Cameron and not former FGer Dave Cameron, my thoughts are tht you’re much better off asking Kiley and Eric about them

Michael J: If the Dodgers trade for Machado, who is the odd man out in the outfield?  This would mean Taylor would

Jay Jaffe: Puig is on the DL for an oblique strain. I don’t think it’s out of the question that they trade Joc Pederson somewhere now that he’s recovered some of his value, or maybe Andrew Toles.

Honestly, though? Taylor is good enough on both sides of the ball as SS, and Machado’s metrics are bad enough at the position that I really don’t think this is an avenue the Dodgers need to pursue

Outta my way, Gyorkass: Brewers: Complete a 3 of 4 series win over a fellow NL contender in the Braves, then lose 2 of 3 to the Marlins? What the hell, baseball?

Jay Jaffe: That might be the greatest chat handle I’ve seen here since joining FG. And yeah, that’s baseball.

OK folks, I’ve got to roll… Thanks for stopping by, and please check out my Descalso https://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/descalso-and-avila-hurl-their-way-into… and Molina https://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/yadier-molinas-climb-towards-coopersto… pieces today