Jay Jaffe FanGraphs Chat – 7/22/25

Jay Jaffe: Good afternoon, folks!

Jay Jaffe: It’s been a few weeks since my last chat. I missed one because of vacation, another because of the All-Star game, and last week at this time, I was sweating bullets because my Mac Mini, which I bought in late 2018, finally bit the dust to the point that its indicator light was flashing a Morse code S-O-S.

Jay Jaffe: Fortunately, I was prepared for this — had scoped out which model I was buying and was backing up my work like it’s my religion (I use Time Machine for on-site and BackBlaze for off-site). So I was up and running within 27 hours and didn’t miss a day of work. Anyway…

Jay Jaffe: Today is D(backs) Day at FanGraphs, in that Michael Baumann and I have done a point/counterpoint regarding whether Arizona should sell or buy at the July 31 trade deadline. My take just went up https://blogs.fangraphs.com/point-the-diamondbacks-should-sell-at-the-…, Michael’s will be along at 12:30, and David Laurila spoke to Merrill Kelly, one of their big trade targets, for another piece https://blogs.fangraphs.com/merrill-kelly-is-a-trade-target-who-thrive…

Jay Jaffe: Yesterday the D-backs popped up in my Worst Defenses Among Contenders roundup https://blogs.fangraphs.com/the-worst-team-defenses-among-contenders-2…

Jay Jaffe: And last week was my Replacement Level Killer series, which begins here https://blogs.fangraphs.com/the-2025-replacement-level-killers-introdu… and covers 6 installments.

Jay Jaffe: anyway, that’s enough housekeeping, on with the show

Matt: Hey Jay, who’s the best SP you foresee being dealt at the deadline?

Jay Jaffe: I think it just might be Kelly, at least in terms of 2025 performance. Zac Gallen and Sandy Alcantara are more accomplished but both have been pretty bad this year. If the Royals decide to deal Seth Lugo, I’d probably put him ahead of Kelly, but I’m less sure they will trade him

Tom M: The Baseball world is going to be shocked at what the Pirates receive for Mitch Keller in a trade, right??  RIGHT!??

Jay Jaffe: He’ll fetch a decent return but the new guys will become Pirates and be part of an endless cycle of churning for the rest of Bob Nutting’s tenure as owner. Enjoy Arby’s!

Guest: Are you starting your Cooperstown notebook articles soon? I look forward to it every year.

Jay Jaffe: Because July is so jam-packed, with the All-Star stuff, the draft, and the Killers and Trade Value series, I’ve decided to push the Cooperstown Notebook series into August. Scheduling TBD because I have some vacation to work around.

Sodo Mojo: With so many contenders needing 3B help and Suarez’s monster season is the price going to be much higher than your typical slugger rental.  Is it a mid top 100 prospect plus pieces?

Jay Jaffe: Yeah i think there will be one clear centerpiece of the deal plus some secondary pieces

Joey Caltrain: Is it possible that there are more future Dominican-born Hall of Famers active in the MLB right now than the total in the hall (5, with Pujols upcoming)? Soto and J. Ramírez seem likely, Ketel Marte, Julio Rodríguez, and maybe Devers are real possibilities, and Tatis would be if not for PEDs. Then there’s the really young guys like Elly de la Cruz and Junior Caminero. Emmanuel Clase still has a shot if everything goes well. I suppose a starter who ages really well (Framber Valdez, Pablo López, Luis Castillo, Sandy Alcantara) could theoretically be a possibility too. Just seems like with 2 locks and so many other possibilities, there’s a real shot at >5.

Jay Jaffe: I’ll take the under on that count. yes on Soto and Jose Ramírez, but none of the other guys has really hit my Hall radar yet, by which i mean they haven’t gotten to a 40-WAR seven-year peak. Three-quarters of the guys who get to that level eventually get in. Julio has the early start and the defensive metrics to buffer his offensive ups and downs, so if I had to pick one of those it’d be him, but Devers is weighed down by bad defense and a DH future, and Marte is 31 with only two 5-WAR seasons (plus a 4.9). It’s also not the time to be optimistic about any starting pitcher when it comes to the Hall.

The Man With Three Names: I was looking at Eugenio Suarez’s page today, and he has had a wRC+ of 153 over the past year. If you had told me a player like him, all power based production, would have been this productive in his 30s, I would have laughed. But it spurred me to check Nolan Arenado’s production in his 30’s, and Suarez has basically been just as productive as Arenado post-30 on a per season WAR basis. This is a convoluted set up to ask: Is Arenado in danger of not reaching the Hall of Fame standard?

Jay Jaffe: Arenado is at 57.7career/44.2 peak/51.0 JAWS, 5.2 points short of the standard. None of that is going to be peak, so he needs about 5.2 WAR to get there. He’s got 2 1/3 seasons remaining under contract but will still be only 36 when it ends; short version, i think it’s going to be a bit of a grind, but the strong peak and the Gold Gloves have mostly gotten him there already

Jay Jaffe: As for Suárez, what he’s done over the past year has a lot to do with a change in his preparatory process, something I wrote about last September. (https://blogs.fangraphs.com/eugenio-suarezs-extended-hot-streak-contin…). It’s a reminder that player development paths are more malleable than ever thanks to technology and a willingness to adapt. We’ve seen it all over the place with swing changes and pitch engineering; this is in that ballpark.

Snid: Dennis Santana   Will he close if he goes to NYY or PHI?

Jay Jaffe: Color me skeptical, with Philly more likely than NYY, but the fact that this is even a valid question attests to the way that guys can still sort themselves out with a little help.

Your Name: How many exclusively 2 WAR seasons would a player have to put up for him to be a HOFer?

Jay Jaffe: LOL let’s do some basic algebra. Let’s say 54.0 JAWS gets you into the Hall. Dude is going to have just 14.0 WAR for his peak, so he’ll need 94.0 WAR for his career, which comes to 47 seasons of very average play.

Jay Jaffe: you know what, if a guy can pull that off, from 18 to 65 or thereabouts, sure, I’ll vote for him.

Sam: What do you think Preller goes nuts for Durran

Jay Jaffe: I think the state of SD’s farm system is such that getting Duran would be very hard unless A.J. can scare up some prospects via a different trade first. I wouldn’t put it past him

Cargo: Who is the best player, post-WWII, to never make an All-Star team?

Jay Jaffe: I’m going to go with Tony Phillips, the proto-Zobrist. He racked up 50.9 WAR in his career without making a single team. Tim Salmon, who sometimes turns up as an answer to this based on his Rookie of the Year award and long career, and Kirk Gibson, a former MVP and postseason hero, aren’t within 10 WAR of that, and pitchers Tom Candiotti and Danny Darwin, the WAR leaders in that category, are about 8-10 WAR away.

AL Central Casting: If a situation arose – God forbid – where an umpire was proven to have taken a bribe and favored an outcome in a specific game, what do you think MLB would do about the results of that game? Would it stand or be nullified? Replayed?

Jay Jaffe: Yeah i think MLB would have to nullify the result and replay the game to make a big statement.

Mike: With ownership in flux, and how they’ve acted the last few deadlines, would you agree that is most likely the Twins do nothing (maybe one small trade) at the deadline? Not even trade off their expiring deals? thanks,

Jay Jaffe: I think they sell. This is not a good team; they made my Killers list at 5 positions and their defense was the worst of any contender

Guest: when will there be day/night splits on player profiles?

Jay Jaffe: I haven’t heard of any plans to add them to the static Splits pages but you can get them via the Splits Tool pages (https://www.fangraphs.com/leaders/splits-leaderboards?splitArr=&splitA…) pull down on the Time Filter menu

Jay Jaffe:

Jay Jaffe: Hope that helps!

Jay Jaffe: Michael Baumann’s counterpoint to my Diamondbacks piece is up now https://blogs.fangraphs.com/counterpoint-dont-listen-to-jay-the-diamon…

Brew Crew Due: Is Milwaukee legit? Or just riding a wave? Thinking of when the Twins got hot earlier this year and are now looking towards the Trade Deadline as sellers.

Jay Jaffe: I believe Baumann is next turning his attention to the Brewers, so stay tuned, but FWIW I do believe they’re for real. They always seem to pull the rabbit out of the hat and field a contender. Six playoff appearances and an 86-win miss in the last 7 years!

Jackson: Is this the year the Phillies fix their OF? Castellanos is set in RF, but CF & LF have been black holes (yes, Marsh is a black hole)

Jay Jaffe: I don’t see how they can stay atop the NL East without doing so. They made the Killers list in all 3 spots with Kepler and Marsh/Rojas both really struggling

HJ: Good afternoon, Jay! Was wondering your thoughts on a few young pitchers for the second half. Do you feel any of Cam Schlittler, Zebby Matthews or Troy Melton have the skills to perform well enough to open eyes over the rest of the season? Thanks a lot!

Jay Jaffe: That’s a question for Eric Longenhagen, not me, particularly as the last two are such recent arrivals I haven’t even seen them. I will note that Melton is the only Top 100 prospect of the three,

Jeremy: Should the Phillies trade for Eugenio Suarez, move Bohm to 1B once he’s healthy, move Harper back to RF, and kick one of their corner outfielders to the bench?

Jay Jaffe: That’s not the worst plan, but I think a lot of it depends on whether Harper’s wrist inflammation (right/throwing arm) will affect his outfield play. My hunch is that it will, which would scrub the idea.

Matt VW: Because I watch them everyday, I guess I’m surprised the Red Sox defense rates out as well as it does. Is this two transcendent defenders lifting an otherwise suspect squad, or is the eye test missing a more pervasive competence?

Jay Jaffe: Maybe the latter? Rafaela, Abreu, and Narvaez are all at least +10 in DRS and +6 in FRV, and they have three more guys (including recent arrival Roman Anthony) in the 4-6 range in DRS with a positive FRV.

J: The Nats have a gaping hole at catcher, I was thinking a smart long term move would be to maybe trade gore or something and get dalton rushing in return from the dodgers + more prospects. Do you eee this type of trade as a possibility, or maybe for Ford in Seattle who’s blocked

Jay Jaffe: I think the Dodgers would leap at the chance for such a trade before whoever is acting as Washington’s GM hangs up the phone, which is to say that it’s not one I would make if I’m the Nationals

Jay Jaffe: The Nats do need a catcher but trading their best starter isn’t the way to get it.

Bob: Looking at the Mets roster, shouldn’t they be starting McNeil in CF, Baty at 2B, Mauricio at 3B, and Vientos at DH on a daily basis? Baty is having a 2-3 WAR season so should be playing regularly.

Jay Jaffe: Baty has just a 70 wRC+ against lefties, which is part of what requires them to juggle their lineup

Jay Jaffe: and while McNeil’s metrics in CF have been fine so far (149 innings), I’m not sure how well that will hold up over a larger sample; I don’t know if he’s being used there more when groundballers are on the mound, etc.

Joey Caltrain: How similar do you think your trade value list would be to Ben’s? Which Fangraphs writer do you think would have the most unique list?

Jay Jaffe: Man, the Trade Value stuff just makes my head spin a bit. I understand it conceptually and think Ben does a great job; when I try to build my own list, I get lost pretty quickly because every single comparison seems like apples vs. oranges.

Jay Jaffe: when we circulate these lists internally early in the process I mostly just nod my head and find 1-2 nits to pick out of 50 players

bcraw35: You kind of answered this earlier with the best SP traded, but any shot Joe Ryan gets dealt? He’s also a Bay Area native, and the Giants may need another starter with Birdsong and Verlander’s struggles. What would it take for SF to land Ryan?

Jay Jaffe: I hadn’t seriously considered the thought of the Twins trading Ryan, who has two more years of control and is outpitching Kelly and Lugo. I think he’d take a big haul to get, but for as tempting as that is I don’t see how the Twins can expect to bounce back quickly by trading their best pitcher while he’s still affordable.

Matt VW: The Rays are only 1.5 games out of a wild card, and their remaining strength of schedule isn’t terrible, but they’re on the road a ton (37 of their remaining 61). How much of a factor is this in estimating their postseason chances?

Jay Jaffe: It’s baked into the Playoff Odds.

Jay Jaffe: To what extent exactly, I can’t say. Ben or Dan is a better person to ask.

Brandon Marsh: What do you think the biggest blockbuster this trade deadline could possibly have? Like the top .1 percentile trade where everyone loses their mind?

Jay Jaffe: A Duran trade, particularly given the Red Sox’s surge into a Wild Card spot, would blow up the internet on the heels of the Devers trade.

Jay Jaffe: I guess a Bregman trade would as well, given the sequence of events that it triggered. Boston is such a fishbowl that there’d be no end of the coverage.

bdubs: Is David Robertson likely to be yet another “floater” in Philly or is he being primed to be their eventual closer?

Jay Jaffe: If he pitches as well as he did last year, i think he’ll be considered to close but color me skeptical about a 40-year-old guy who’s sat out 2/3 of a season. I’d bet you’re looking at a 20-25% chance of him being good enough for that role given the layoff.

ransofast: Has the hall of fame ever done ‘road shows’? they have so much cool history in storage, I feel like pop-ups in MLB cities (maybe as we get into spring training or opening day) where they can highlight all the cool stuff this game has produced would be super fun. It would also make Cooperstown more approachable for those that cant make it to New York.

Jay Jaffe: Circa 2004, there was a Baseball As America exhibit of Hall artifacts that toured the country; meanwhile, the museum was being remodeled. I caught the show at the American Museum of Natural History in NYC, and again at the Smithsonian in DC with Christina Kahrl and a few baseball blogger pals — we all went down to stay at her place for the weekend. I think it was right at the tail end of the 2004 regular season, with Steve Finley’s walk-off homer clinching a playoff spot for the Dodgers, and the Cubs’ grisly collapse hitting some of us harder than others.

Justin: No real question just wanted to state how much more fun baseball is when Acuña is healthy and hitting

Jay Jaffe: Agreed, and let me add that it was hot garbage the other night when the YES Network’s Michael Kay and Joe Girardi complained he wasn’t running hard on the most routine groundballs. Y’all know I have little patience for that bullshit.

Re: DBacks Counterpoint: Lol Baumann is worth every penny FanGraphs pays just for the headlines alone (also a great writer, too, just wanted to give that shout out)

Jay Jaffe: He’s great, and the headline cracked me up. I could have snuck in a dig at him in my piece (it would have been questionable to reciprocate a pending piece in the headline) but I was happy enough playing the straight man this time around.

Dude better sleep with one eye open though.

Smokin’ Jim Leyland: This might be a bit premature still…but apparently Tarik Skubal was the same age as former Tiger Max Scherzer when reaching his 50th career win. What are the chances that Skubal has a similar trajectory from here and ends up in Cooperstown?

Jay Jaffe: I have little question that Skubal has the stuff to do it. The Several Hundred Million Dollar question comes down to whether he can stay healthy.

Sam: Assuming a player with perfect consistency (same WAR every year), what’s the minimum number of WAR/season they would need to average for you to believe they warranted an HOF plaque?

Jay Jaffe: 10 seasons at 5.0 WAR would almost certainly get my vote, even with a low-ish peak of 35.0.

Cody S: Do you think Minnesota will trade a player as significant as Joe Ryan or Jhoan Durán? Or will it be mostly the rentals like Castro, Bader, and Coulombe?

Jay Jaffe: See above regarding Ryan, but I’d bet Durán gets traded. Relievers can go south so quickly that you might as well cash them in when they’re hot and you’re out of it.

E: Of the shortstops in this generation it feels like Lindor has pulled away and seems likely to have had the best career. Who would you rank as second best?

Jay Jaffe: I’d still put Correa second — he’s second active in JAWS but the gap is widening by the year, and  Declining defense and health issues are putting Bogaerts, Seager, and Turner further behind; they’re each separated by a few points. I wouldn’t expect much rapid movement on this front for awhile.

Lindor Ramirez: They’ve both had rather similar careers and seem slated for the Hall. Which do you think will have the best overall career in the end?

Jay Jaffe: Very tough call, but barring a trade, I think only Lindor — who’s already had the better postseason career of the two, with some signature moments — has the chance to win a World Series. So I’ll go with him.

Joey Caltrain: Who gets pushed out of the Phillies’ playoff rotation? Luzardo has pitched so well. Is it him anyway? Suarez? Nola?

Jay Jaffe: Don’t count your rotation chickens before October, because the odds are high this will resolve itself by somebody hitting the injured list.

Endy Chavez: Is Brett Baty good? Do the Mets still need another bat?

Jay Jaffe: I’d call Baty a useful player with some major flaws (OBP and vs. LHP being the big ones). I think the Mets have the bodies to cobble together 3B; their big lineup need is a center fielder.

Joey Caltrain: It worked out great the last time the Nationals traded an ace for a Dodgers catching prospect

Jay Jaffe: Yeah, and that was just a rental. Scherzer was great if something of a pain in the ass complaining about not being allowed to pitch deeper — a complaint that has been followed by him showing his age and spending a lot of time on the IL as he battles Father Time.

LA/Sacramento Trade: Bobby Miller, Edgardo Henriquez, Andy Pages, and lotto ticket type prospect for Mason Miller. Who says no

Jay Jaffe: The Dodgers, who really need Pages these days amid so many struggling or injured position players

Sanford: Pretty incredible that Acuña hasn’t torpedoed his HOF track despite tearing both ACLs. With ~30 WAR through his age-27 season, would you put his odds over/under 50%?

Jay Jaffe: Still very much under. He has 28.4 career WAR, with two seasons of 4.0 or better, the only ones where he’s played at least 120 games. Dude has got to stay on the field.

Your Name: You are harsh. I’d vote for Mr. 2 WAR even if he only had 40 2 win seasons.

Jay Jaffe: hey, somebody has to be picky about who gets into the Hall.

Jay Jaffe: Ok i saw a question or two to answer before goign

Opifijikl: What is the earliest into a career that you would be willing to predict that the player is a Hall of Famer? I’m thinking about someone like Soto. Are there any other players, former or current, who gave off early hall of famer signs?

Jay Jaffe: This Q made me think of Shohei Ohtani. In March 2023, when he had just five seasons and one MVP award under his belt, Dan and I mulled his case on a podcast and concluded he was likely https://blogs.fangraphs.com/fangraphs-audio-jay-jaffe-and-dan-szymbors…

NYY: What do you make of Spencer Jones? Is there hope he’s figured something sustainable out? Is this just a ridiculous hot streak?

Jay Jaffe: I think the talent evaluators who are concerned about Jones’ contact rate are probably correct. He’ll have a Joey Gallo-like impact with some spectacular power and maybe a couple big seasons but that swing and miss is going to overwhelm his profile and the perception of him if he’s anything less than star-level.

Jay Jaffe: OK now it’s time to go. Thanks so much for stopping by!