Jay Jaffe FanGraphs Chat – 7/25/23

Jay Jaffe: Good afternoon, folks! Welcome to the last July edition of my FanGraphs chat

Jay Jaffe: I’m back from an exhilarating and exhausting Hall of Fame Induction Weekend in Cooperstown

Jay Jaffe:

Jay Jaffe: Had a blast there, got to do some pretty fun stuff!

Jay Jaffe: Back here on earth, the second installment of this year’s Replacement Level Killers is up, covering second basemen https://blogs.fangraphs.com/the-2023-replacement-level-killers-second-…

Jay Jaffe: The series began on Thursday https://blogs.fangraphs.com/the-2023-replacement-level-killers-introdu…

Jay Jaffe: And now, on with the show

So you’re telling me there is a chance: Hi Jay.   I’m going to the Blue Jays vs Angels game on Saturday.   Where would you put the odds of me seeing Ohtani play, with the trade deadline quickly approaching?

Jay Jaffe: I think the odds of Ohtani being traded are very low, honestly

Jay Jaffe: I think Arte is unwilling to trade him to another California team (the Dodgers and Padres come to mind) and believe they can make a strong pitch to re-sign him

Fat Elvis: Comparing Lance Berkman’s numbers to Fred McGriff, makes me wonder if Lance should be a HOFer. Fred compiled more, but Lance seems better on a rate basis (and OPS+). How do you distinguish the two?

Jay Jaffe: Both are short for me. McGriff ranks only 33rd in JAWS among 1B (52.6/36.0/44.3), nine points below the standard. Berkman is 19th among LF (52.0/39.2/45.6) about eight points below the standard. He did that in over 2000 fewer plate appearances, and is a better hitter on a rate basis 9144-134 in OPS+) but he’s not truly a high-peak guy relative to the positional standard (41.8)

Jay Jaffe: I don’t think one subpar choice justifies lowering the bar for another

Ron: Your thoughts on Julio Urias for ROS….can he right the ship and get back to somewhat consistent ace level?  Dodgers need him to be in October for sure. Thanks

Jay Jaffe: Man, I wish I knew. At his best,  he’s obviously a very good pitcher, but we’ve rarely seen his best this year, He’s been very homer-prone, and has gotten knocked around by a lot of sub-.500 teams

Jay Jaffe: The irony is that this might keep him a Dodger, if they make him a qualifying offer and he uses that to get a second chance to set his market

Adam B.: Tell us about something else you spotted in the Hall’s collection this weekend which made you glad to see it.

Jay Jaffe: Two photos and accompanying objects that are new from this spring: a photo of Ohtani striking out Trout to end the World Baseball Classic championship game, accompanied by Ohtani’s cap:

Jay Jaffe:

Jay Jaffe: And the batting helmet of Olivia Pichardo, the first woman to play for an NCAA Division I team, Brown University (my alma mater):

Jay Jaffe:

Jay Jaffe: Speaking of the latter, Pichardo homered in a wood bat summer league this weekend https://www.mlb.com/news/olivia-pichardo-first-woman-to-homer-wood-bat…

seth r: What is your favorite exhibit in Cooperstown? I was dumbstruck by the sheer amount of ‘lore’ available to the museum curators when I went for Larkin’s induction

Jay Jaffe: I love the A Whole New Ballgame exhibit, of the stuff from the 1970s onward. So vibrant and varied. Also the Shoebox Memories exhibit dedicated to baseball cards.

Jay Jaffe: https://twitter.com/jay_jaffe/status/1683150039248502785

Hayes: Hey everyone, am I the only one worried that Ohtani is going to be insanely overpaid this offseason? Obviously he’s a top 3 hitter( I believe Judge and Yordan are better) but pitching wise he’s ranked 27th and 26th in ERA and xERA. His hitting numbers suggest he should get around $350m and then his pitching stats suggest he should get around $100-$130m. Add that up and your looking at a $450m player. I’ve heard though that the market could be $600m!?. That just seems high to especially with how common pitching injuries are that you could be losing a pitcher as well as a hitter if he were to have Tommy John. Thoughts on this?

Jay Jaffe: his pitching stats have been compromised by his recent blister issues, which have inflated his ERA. Regardless, whoever signs him isn’t just doing a simple mathematical estimate based on his value — there’s a marquee value there that’s not accounted for, and whoever signs him is likely to be the one that values him the most highly beyond performance, mainly for his ability to improve attendance and ratings.

Jay Jaffe: That said, even the best players don’t tend to get paid at the dollar value their projections suggest. I think $600M is a bit extreme but I wouldn’t be surprised at $500M

Steve: Jay, i noticed that the brewers are in first place in the NL central and have a negative Pythagorean Win Expectancy (-5). How common is it for such a team to win a division? pennant? world series? Have the latter two ever been done with a PWE for the season being negative?

Jay Jaffe: It happens. The 1987 Twins are the only team to win a World Series despite being outscored but several others have won a division title or made the playoffs, including the 2007 Diamondbacks (90-72 but -20 runs) https://www.mlb.com/news/playoff-teams-with-negative-run-differential

omar: there’s no way the Orioles would trade Holliday for Ohtani, right? is Ohtani’s trade value being overstated considering he’s only a 2 month rental?

Jay Jaffe: no way the O’s do that. The thing about Ohtani’s trade value is that you’re adding BOTH a player who’s probably going to be your best hitter AND a frontline starter, albeit one who might require you juggle your rotation a little. His DH-only status creates some issues as far as resting other players, but he does save you a roster spot. Whoever trades for him will almost certainly overpay in a rational sense, but that’s what it’s going to take to separate yourself from the other offers if you really do want him

Theo be Praised: Many teams with high payrolls (NYY, SDP, NYM, etc) are doing poorly.  Many with low payrolls (TBR, CIN, BAL, ARI, etc) are having surprisingly good years.  Anything we can learn from that?

Jay Jaffe: Yes: That’s Baseball, Suyzn.

Jay Jaffe: There’s always a lot of handwringing over how much money teams spend, but at best it’s an imperfect mechanism to improve your club, it doesn’t guarantee anything.

Jay Jaffe: Which doesn’t mean you should never spend big — you’re not going to get or keep star players if you don’t, and that has a lot with the way fans and even other players perceive your team.

Dave in St Paul: What do you think Joe Mauers HOF percent will be on his time on the ballot?

Jay Jaffe: I think he falls short this winter, with something in the 60-65% range, but gets in next year.

Theo be Praised: If the Cubs trade Bellinger, do they have a legit chance to resign him?  That almost never happens, but this circumstance (1 year pillow, Boras client) seems like one where it could, no?

Jay Jaffe: It rarely happens, and unless Bellinger REALLY liked his time there I’d be skeptical he would be so inclined. That team is several moves away from being a powerhouse, and unless they make other moves to convince him that they’re building a contender, I’m not sure why he’d go there unless their offer blows the others away.

Syndergaardengnomes: Good afternoon!  Think the Mets will trade Verlander or Scherzer?  Even if they pick up a substantial amount of money, seems difficult to imagine a huge market…

Jay Jaffe: I’m skeptical, because i think the money and the no-trade clauses and their declining performances (and recent injuries) will make it very hard to line up with another team

bringbackpologrounds: Hello Jay. In your delightful Cooperstown casebook series, you note that Mookie Betts projects to a 63 bWAR at the end of the season, and his JAWS score is already first-ballot status. I think Betts has a great chance to finish with 90-100 bWAR with somewhat modest counting stats (2000 hits, 375 HRs)…how will his legacy be viewed by the old crowd/HOF voters at the time?

Jay Jaffe: Even before this stellar season, he projected for just short of 2,400 hits and 400 homers via ZiPS, which is a bit beyond what you’re suggesting. I don’t think it’s really going to matter what the “old crowd” thinks — Hall of Fame voters 10 years from now will be quite aware of how good he is and probably less attached to milestone numbers as voters of yesteryear.

Cameron Kear: Jay, What’s going on with the A’s stadium saga? Haven’t heard anything about it in a while. Could they stay in Oakland?

Jay Jaffe: I don’t really know a whole lot but things have slowed down since the legislative session in Las Vegas. For one thing, the owners have to approve the move, and some other steps have to happen in LV to issue bonds to develop the site. See https://thenevadaindependent.com/article/amid-questions-over-stadium-s…

Jay Jaffe: There’s also some question as to whether the current site can even fit a ballpark, which if it can’t will start the legislative process over.

Brad in Wellfleet: Hello from Pleasant Point on Blackfish Creek!  Justin Steele…how exactly does he get the results he does with just a 91-93 4-seemer and OK slider?

Jay Jaffe: I’m not entirely sure, either. Steele does a very good job of limiting hard contact, and while his fastball velo is unimpressive, he gets very good spin (82nd percentile) and atypical movement (see https://theathletic.com/4430884/2023/04/19/cubs-justin-steele-unique-f…). His delivery is deceptive as well, which helps.

Jason: Similar to the Berkman question, what might Carlos Delgado need to gain further consideration? He was great for 13 years, came up probably one year short of 500 homers, and his candidacy was summarily dismissed.

Jay Jaffe: I love Carlos Delgado for his outspokenness on things that matter, but he’s a bit short in the hall department, because despite the homers, he didn’t have a ton of value in other areas of the game. -26 baserunning runs, -65 fielding runs via B-Ref, and so you have a guy who barely cleared 50 WAR and ranks 38th among 1B (44.4 /34.5/39.4) with lesser numbers than McGriff. He won’t even be eligible for Era Committee consideration until after what would have been his 10-year window runs out this winter, and there just aren’t a ton of guys from the sub-5% group who make the leap to the ballot with any speed — ask Lou Whitaker.

Scott: When did Fangraphs first come about? How many years has it’s been?

Jay Jaffe: It started in 2005. Here’s an Athletic story about its early years https://theathletic.com/2229556/2020/12/04/fangraphs-baseball-writing-…

First Place Orioles: I know this can be filed under “way too early to answer” but who do you personally think is a more likely HoFer – Adley Rutschman or Gunnar Henderson?

Jay Jaffe: offhand I’d say it’s Gunnar, because he reached the majors at 21, compared to 23 for Adley.

Jason: Do you think Dan Quisenberry has any shot at the hall? Per your one subpar choice doesn’t justify another, Quisenberry doesn’t seem meaningfully worse than Bruce Sutter. I don’t necessarily think Sutter is undeserving, but I wonder if Q has a shot to get in or if the standards are a bit too high for him.

Jay Jaffe: I don’t see a chance, sorry. I loved Quisenberry, and while his numbers are a very good match for Sutter in terms of innings and WAR, and he has an advantage in ERA+ and in R-JAWS (which includes WPA), he wasn’t the pioneer that Sutter was — both in terms of popularizing the split-fingered fastball and in being used as the save-focused closer (they’re 56 saves apart in Sutter’s favor). Getting on the ballot at this point is particularly tough given the smaller ballots and recent process change, and not having big counting stats.

omg_pwnasaurus: I find it very difficult to get hyped about the HOF anymore when the best hitter and best pitcher of my generation are not in while the veteran’s committee either elects someone that they played with/for that they like and/or they elect someone just to make a point about the PED era.  Perhaps the managers whose career wins/rings were aligned with that era as well should also be penalized then?  It all seems very arbitrary and at this point has (imo) had the inverse effect of what they seem to be trying to prove where at least from my perspective, it’s become far less interesting.

Jay Jaffe: You don’t have to care. The institution and its processes have their flaws, as does the logic that’s put some of the best players on the outside while those who enabled them are in. Some of us are devoted to doing what we can to improve the situation and to appreciate what’s there, but it’s hardly mandatory for every fan to feel that way.

J: What would you do if you were the Cubs right now? Still too early to tell or is the small chance of winning the division just not worth missing out on trading Bellinger/Stroman at their peaks?

Jay Jaffe: I’d be more inclined to sell because there just aren’t that many sellers, and as you suggest, those guys are near peak value.

Guest: Lot of Arenado to the Dodgers rumors flying last few days. Do you have any idea why the Dodgers would send out prospects for him when they have Muncy, an everyday DH only, and lots of other needs? I am so confused how this became a thing.

Jay Jaffe: Muncy hasn’t been quite the same player since his elbow injury, but he does have some positional utility; he can play first, second and third. He might also be a trade candidate if the Dodgers do get Arenado, who would be an upgrade. IMO, a lot depends on how much money is changing hands here, though, as Arenado is owed over $100 million through 2027.

Matt VW: I always enjoy the replacement killers series. Do you have thoughts on how many (if any) positional killers a team can carry and still make the playoffs? Make a deep run in the playoffs?

Jay Jaffe: I don’t think there’s any set number but let’s note that last year’s NL champion Phillies made the midseason list at SS, 3B, CF, and RF, though only the two outfield spots finished with less than 1 WAR, and they did at least add Marsh in center field to give themselves a Wet Guy

v2micca: If I set the over/under at 7 for the number of additional Shohei Ohtani game used items that will be featured in the Hall of Fame from his career, would you take the over or under?

Jay Jaffe: Over, because there will be something on that order in his display case when he’s inducted.

TKDC: Were you surprised by the somewhat smaller crowd in Cooperstown this weekend? I especially thought I’d see more Phillies fans show up.

Jay Jaffe: No, not really — and the crowd was far less than the estimate of 10,000 offered by the Hall (these things are always inflated). With only two honorees compared to five or six from recent years, it was bound to be a smaller turnout. Both players spent only a handful of years with teams that were within driving distance, and let’s face it, a sizable contingent of Phillies fans will forever be at odds with Rolen for turning down the big contract extension and going on to greater success elsewhere.

Kevin: You said you got to do some pretty fun stuff in Cooperstown. Tell us more!

Jay Jaffe: The biggest highlights were going to the Friday afternoon get-together at the Hotel Otesaga in honor of BBWAA Career Excellence Award winner John Lowe and to the Hall of Fame plaque gallery cocktail party on Saturday evening. I had a chance at both to talk to a ton of writers I respect, met a few Hall of Famers (including favorites Robin Yount and Jim Thome) and spotted dozens more (pointedly did not shake the hand of one, ahem), heard some very nice things about my work, caught up with a ton of friends who are either Cooperstown-based or show up every year, including my hosts, and made a “20 Years of JAWS” presentation at the post-induction SABR meeting.

Marcus: If the Yankees miss the playoffs, is Cashman out of a job?

Jay Jaffe: No, but I’d bet Boone is.

jj: I keep thinking the same as Hayes above about Ohtani, there should be a discount built in for the risk of losing both your best hitter and #1 or #2 SP, BUT all it takes is one owner to not worry about this risk and his price is through the roof.

Jay Jaffe: if you’re sitting around waiting for a discount on Ohtani, you’re going to watch him put on another team’s uniform.

v2micca: Which team actually making a compelling effort to sign Ohtani this off-season would personally surprise you the most?

Jay Jaffe: Anybody who has a payroll in the lower half of teams save for the Mariners, plus at least the White Sox, Astros, and Cardinals from those in the upper half.

Grand Admiral Braun: Can the Cubs sell Stroman and yet still be in-it and “buyers?”

Jay Jaffe: It’s possible but they’d have to get back some quality pitching in order for that to make sense

Keith: Dejected Royals fan here Terrible MLB team and bottom five farm system.  What could possibly make them competitive in the next five years?

Jay Jaffe: a new regime.

Marcus: Favorite place to see a band in NYC, past and present?

Jay Jaffe: I tend to love smaller venues but not too small. I miss CBGB’s and Brownies. Bowery Ballroom (official capacity 575) might be my favorite, as it’s well-run, has decent beer, and so on — and I’ve been going to that one for over 20 years. Brooklyn Made, which has great beer and a wide stage, is an excellent venue but a schlep to get to, and it’s not being booked as well as it used to. I really miss Bell House, which had a lot of the same in its favor but was much closer

>this guy<: Immaculate Grid is the most fun I have all day sometimes. Thanks for sharing your results. It’s how I found out.

Jay Jaffe: I spent so much time talking about Immaculate Grid with friends — some of whom work at the Hall — this past weekend.

Skip: Wait, can I walk around the Hall of Fame with beer in hand? That changes everything!

Jay Jaffe: Alas, you can’t, unless you get invited to the plaque room party.

Kevin: Who would you at least consider voting for at this point on next year’s HOF ballot?

Jay Jaffe: Something along the lines of “everyone I’ve voted for before, plus Beltré, Mauer and Utley”

Bongo: Is Chas McCormick breaking out?

Jay Jaffe: His slash line suggests that he is (.282/.371/.531), but his statcast numbers are similar to last year, and he has only a .237 xBA and .437 xSLG. Beware regression

Immaculate Griz: Which over 30 player has the best chance to play their way into HOF contention?

Jay Jaffe: The one that was most notable to me when I did my roundup was Marcus Semien, who’s really made great strides lately.

Dan: Is rest of career projections somewhere publicly accessible or is it something you run internally in service of research or an article?

Jay Jaffe: No, it’s a Szymborski spreadsheet he shared with me, and it’s already out of date.

Bert: Nobody seems to be talking about the Pads’ run differential. Way higher than SFG and ARI. Their Pythagorean record has them much higher. It’s getting late but would a turnaround really shock you?

Jay Jaffe: Not tremendously. They have a lot of good players underperforming, and have played better than their record suggests, though they’re just 6-16 in one-run games. Fix first base, figure out what’s going on with Darvish, fortify the bullpen, I can see them having a shot at a playoff spot.

Skip: I’m heading to Cooperstown in September for the day. Anything that is on the “can’t miss” list?

Jay Jaffe: I guess it depends on how much time you can spend at the Hall. The relatively recent exhibits  — A Whole New Ballgame, Shoebox Treasures, Viva Baseball, Diamond Dreams (women in baseball), and Negro Leagues — are very much worth catching if you’ve already done the historical stuff. The Hank Aaron display on the third floor is great, and the stat-related artifacts on 3 are really fun, too.

Bert: Do the underlying stats tell you Kim is playing over his head remarkably?

Jay Jaffe: Yeah, a bit (.270 AVG vs .246 xBA, .447 SLG vs. .383 xSLG), but his glove and versatility are key parts of his value

Urban Shocker: Will Mookie’s HoF case have any cheating stink on it from the 2018 Red Sox sign stealing scheme? Still a great player but, coincidence or not, that was his best offensive season by far.

Jay Jaffe: I doubt it will have much impact. Yes, those might be his best offensive numbers — compiled in a hitter-friendly park, let us note — but the fact that he’s had other MVP-caliber seasons and has never really had a bad one to this point is what’s going to stand out to voters

Colton: I’m sure you’ve been asked this plenty of times and I’ve missed them, but do you have any strong thoughts about tweener-type CF and their HOF candidacy? I’m referring specifically to guys like Lofton, Andruw Jones and Edmonds. They all played great CF and were solid offensively but seem to not get the love from voters that they might deserve in some respects.

Jay Jaffe: Jones is trending towards election. Lofton and Edmonds landed on the ballot at a tough time and fell victim to the 5% rule. The latter doesn’t have the defensive metrics that align with his reputation, and his career counting stats are short as well, so it’s not a surprise he went one-and-done. Lofton was more of a travesty but he may have missed his best chance to get onto the Era Committee ballot with this last year https://www.latimes.com/california/story/2022-08-22/kenny-lofton-accus…

Mike S: Are you docking Mauer at all for spending roughly 40% of his career at 1st?  Is it unreasonable to like the careers of guys like Brian McCann, Yadi Molina, Buster Posey and even Russell Martin over him due to the fact that they stayed at catcher for longer and/or for a greater percentage of their careers?

Jay Jaffe: here’s the thing: a good-hitting catcher accrues value quickly, a light-hitting first baseman does not, so it’s not as though Mauer put himself at at some advantage by moving to first, which happened BECAUSE OF THE REPEATED CONCUSSIONS HE SUSTAINED AT CATCHER, let us not forget.

Mauer’s value at catcher was was more than enough to put him over the top. His peak score, based on his best seven seasons, all at catcher,  ranks fifth all-time, and he’s seventh in JAWS. We haven’t even gotten into the pitch-framing part of the discussion, and he was good there, though Posey, Martin, Molina, and McCann were even better.

Jay Jaffe: Ok folks, that’s my pitch count. Thanks so much for stopping by. Next week’s availability is TBD due to the impending trade deadline.

Jay Jaffe: But we’ll have tons of coverage at FanGraphs, of course, so tune in!