The 2023 Replacement-Level Killers: Second Base

Today, we turn our attention to the second base Killers. While still focusing on teams that meet the loose definition of contenders (a .500 record or Playoff Odds of at least 10%), and that have gotten about 0.6 WAR or less out of a position thus far — which prorates to 1.0 WAR over a full season — this year I have incorporated our Depth Charts’ rest-of-season WAR projections into the equation for an additional perspective. Sometimes that may suggest that the team will clear the bar by a significant margin, but even so, I’ve included them here because the team’s performance at that spot is worth a look.

As noted previously, some of these situations are more dire than others, particularly when taken in the context of the rest of a team’s roster. I don’t expect every team to go out and track down an upgrade before the August 1 deadline, and I’m less concerned with the solutions – many of which have more moving parts involved than a single trade — than the problems. Unless otherwise indicated, all statistics are through Sunday.

Red Sox

Though he missed a month due to a right hamstring strain, Christian Arroyo has gotten the bulk of the playing time at second base for Boston. Unfortunately, he’s hit a meager .247/.277/.382 (77 wRC+), and even with solid defense, he’s in the red, WAR-wise (-0.1). Enmanuel Valdez, a 45 FV prospect with some pop, did most of the fill-in work in Arroyo’s absence but hit just .234/.280/.404 (81 wRC+). Since being sent down to Triple-A Worcester, he’s struggled with injuries; he’s currently out due to a left hamstring strain after previously missing time with left thumb inflammation. Both Enrique Hernández and Justin Turner have recently spotted at the keystone as well; after spending just one inning at the position the previous seven seasons, the latter has played 27 innings there this year.

With Trevor Story moving his rehab from Tommy John surgery to Worcester, the Red Sox will soon get an upgrade at shortstop. That would make Hernández, who’s started 54 games there compared to 14 at second, available for more time at the latter position, but he’s hit for just a 60 wRC+ (.222/.279/.320) this season, after putting up a 75 wRC+ last year. Valdez could get another look, but this spot may need outside help. The top option on the trade market is probably the Reds’ Jonathan India, who will be eligible for arbitration for the first time this winter but has been crowded out by the new wave of Reds infielders. The Red Sox probably don’t have the young, controllable pitching the Reds seek — they’re not parting with Brayan Bello, and they’ve got pitching needs of their own. If they do make a move here, a change-of-scenery candidate such as the A’s Tony Kemp could be more realistic.

[Update: Hernández was traded to the Dodgers hours after this was published.]

Mariners

Kolten Wong entered the year having hit for a 109 wRC+ in three of the past four seasons, including a 117 mark last year. Acquired from the Brewers in exchange for Abraham Toro and Jesse Winker, the 32-year-old two-time Gold Glove winner has completely collapsed on the offensive side. Even including Monday night’s pinch-homer, he’s batting .162/.244/.229 for a 39 wRC+, the majors’ fifth-lowest mark among players with at least 150 PA. He’s averaging just 85.2 mph on his batted balls and has barreled just two (!) all year while producing a 27% hard-hit rate and a .283 xSLG.

The Mariners have been platooning the lefty-swinging Wong with righty-swinging José Caballero, a 26-year-old rookie who was graded as a 40 FV prospect on the recent Mariners Top Prospects list but who has hit .228/.354/.333 (103 wRC+). His 83.3 mph average exit velo and 24.3% hard-hit rate are worse than Wong’s, but his 3.3% barrel rate is more than double. He’s also walking in 11.6% of his plate appearances and driving pitchers nuts with his tactics regarding the pitch clock. Via Eric Longenhagen on the prospects list:

Caballero is perhaps the best in baseball at leveraging the pitch clock and timing his entry into the batter’s box in such a way as to make the opposing pitcher vulnerable to a violation, or to cause the pitcher to come set before Caballero has visually addressed the mound. It sometimes puts the opposing pitcher on tilt, and I can’t decide if it’s bush league or brilliant, but like the Patrick Beverlys and Tie Domis of the world, Caballero is the kind of player you love when he’s on your team and hate when he’s not.

Beyond that, Caballero is playing pretty good defense based on the metrics. Expanding his role to include right-handed pitching might cost him some productivity, but it’s tough to imagine he’d be as bad as Wong. A trade for India would be a more impactful move, and it’s worth noting that general managers Jerry Dipoto and Nick Krall have already pulled off two big deals within the last year and a half (the swap that brought Winker and Eugenio Suárez to Seattle in exchange for a four-player package headlined by Brandon Williamson and the Luis Castillo 2022 deadline blockbuster), though the Mariners’ farm system has thinned considerably, in part because of those trades.

Mets

A year ago, Jeff McNeil was a second-time All-Star, a down-ballot MVP vote recipient, the NL batting champion thanks to a .326/.382/.454 line, and a top-10 NL player in terms of both his 143 wRC+ and 5.8 WAR. This year, he entered Monday batting a meager .248/.322/.321 (87 wRC+) and… well, he’s here. Quite simply, the hits haven’t been falling in, as his BABIP has dropped from .353 to .277. His 2023 exit velo (86.8 mph) and hard-hit rate (30.4%) are within an eyelash of last year, but his already-piddling 2.7% barrel rate has dropped to 1.6%. Instead of spraying doubles down the lines, he’s making more weak contact, and he’s already hit 18 popups compared to 11 last year. A drop in production like this is always a risk for such a batting-average-dependent hitter, and backup Luis Guillorme and the since-traded Eduardo Escobar haven’t helped.

Given the difficulties of trading either Max Scherzer or Justin Verlander (or both) due to their salaries and no-trade clauses, McNeil is a player to keep an eye on if the Mets do decide to dismantle. He’s just over half a season into a four-year, $50 million extension, and that cost certainty, affordability, and track record — he bounced back from a similarly mediocre 2021 season last year, and owns a 123 wRC+ for his career — could make him a useful trade piece. As to how the Mets replace him, prospect Ronny Mauricio has been playing more second base than shortstop at Triple-A, where he’s hit a robust .297/.345/.511. Turning the page offers the Mets some chance at a younger, cheaper, and more productive player while also having the means to fill other needs. For a club that entered Tuesday seven games under .500 and seven out of the third Wild Card spot, that’s not nothing.

Brewers

Moving on from Wong has proven to be a bigger challenge than the Brewers expected. Brice Turang, a 23-year-old rookie who placed 65th on our Top 100 Prospects list this spring, made most of the starts through May, but even since returning from a three-week stint at Triple-A Nashville, his meager offense (.203/.272/.313, 59 wRC+) has offset above-average defense.

Owen Miller and Andruw Monasterio filled in when Turang went down. Both have hit better than Turang but both are now playing regularly at other positions due to injuries. Miller is currently the regular first baseman in Rowdy Tellez’s absence, where his 88 wRC+ is an even bigger liability; the team already made that Killers list. Monasterio, a 26-year-old rookie utilityman who has hit .276/.357/.368 (103 wRC+), is filling in for third baseman Brian Anderson, who’s out with a back strain. Luis Urías, who hit for a 110 wRC+ and accrued 2.2 WAR last year while splitting time between second, short, and third, has been stashed at Nashville after hitting .145/.299/.236 in just 68 PA. While he’s started to heat up down on the farm, this team probably needs help from outside.

Orioles

Here’s an interesting situation. Adam Frazier hasn’t been bad with the bat (.238/.303/.416, 98 wRC+), but his defensive work has been dreadful according to both RAA (-9) and DRS (-6), if not UZR (0.4). Ramón Urías (Luis’ brother) is a better defender who has spotted at the position while seeing time at the other infield spots as well; overall, he’s hit .251/.321/.388 (99 wRC+). Rookie Jordan Westburg, a 2020 first-round pick who placed ninth on the team’s prospect list in February, has fared respectably (.266/.319/.438, 108 wRC+) while starting nine games at second base and seven at third. He’s a below-average defender with contact issues, but his presence and the Orioles’ infield depth could allow them to trade Frazier. That would still leave the team with Westburg, Urías, Jorge Mateo and Gunnar Henderson to cover three spots, with prospect Joey Ortiz (sixth on the team’s list) available for further depth needs.

Also: It’s only thanks to Whit Merrifield’s four-hit night on Monday against the Dodgers that the Blue Jays avoided this list, as they pushed their WAR to 0.7. Merrifield has been productive at the spot and overall (.299/.351/.403, 112 wRC+), but when he’s played the outfield, Santiago Espinal and Cavan Biggio have struggled; both have netted zero WAR, the former by batting .215/.295/.389 (91 wRC+), the latter .231/.309/.306 (76 wRC+). It wouldn’t be a surprise if the situation receives a shake-up soon.