Jay Jaffe FanGraphs Chat – 8/29/23

Jay Jaffe: Good afternoon folks, and welcome to the last August edition of my chat for 2023!

Jay Jaffe: I’m a bit giddy because as of 20 minutes ago, we have accepted offers on our current and future homes in Brooklyn

Jay Jaffe: it’s been a journey, folks

Jay Jaffe: anyway, yesterday I ran a piece on Félix Bautista’s UCL injury https://blogs.fangraphs.com/a-great-summer-ends-with-a-bummer-as-the-o…. Still no word on the severity of it, but I wouldn’t really read into that as good news. The Orioles aren’t the most transparent bunch when it comes to injuries or… other matters

Jay Jaffe: I’ve got a piece on Bryce Harper’s resurgence that’s about to go live

Jay Jaffe: Anyway, let’s get to this one…

HOF Harper?: With Bryce approaching 300 HRs and his career being.. interesting(?) thus far with a couple amazing seasons, a couple underwhelming seasons, and quite a few certainly good not necessarily great seasons.. What is the view on him through your HOF lenses?

Jay Jaffe: I wrote about Harper’s case here https://blogs.fangraphs.com/cooperstown-notebook-the-2023-progress-rep…

Jay Jaffe: The short version is that he’s lost some time due to injuries, the pandemic, and whatnot, but he’s banked two MVP awards nonetheless, finally reached a World Series (no small matter) and appears to be on the other side of a serious injury now

Jay Jaffe: his career/peak/JAWS (45.0/36.2/40.6) is rather top-heavy thanks to his 9.7-WAR 2015, and he actually has just three five-win seasons, but that’s left him a lot of low-hanging fruit within that peak score. With last night’s homer, he’s now at 2.5 WAR, matching last year for h is seventh-best season, so whatever he does through the rest of the year will raise that score, and he very well could reach 40.0 peak next year

Jay Jaffe: which as I’ve noted, generally means a future HOFer

TKDC: Ha-Seong Kim is a free agent after next year, is he going to sign for $250 million and casual sports fans are going to say “who the hell is that guy?”

Jay Jaffe: No, I don’t think he’s going to get that kind of money, because so much of his value is tied up in defense, and because he doesn’t hit the ball that hard.

Jay Jaffe: Wouldn’t surprise me if he breaks nine figures IF his 2024 looks like his 2023, but if he regresses to 2022 form, that will put a damper on things

Fletcher: Do you think all-star appearances from the double all-star game years should be counted as 1 per year or is Stan Musial and Willie Mays having more all-star appearances than seasons too much fun?

Jay Jaffe: It’s funny that there were only four years in which two All-Star Games were played (1959-62), but it was such a golden age that a lot of inner-circle types were affected. In the Cooperstown Casebook I only single-counted All-Star years; most of the time, the rosters were pretty similar for both games.

paulie Eff: This time of year ROS projections amount to one week, if you’re fighting for a playoff spot.  Is it appropriate to cut a struggling future HoF catcher like Sal Perez on a morbid Royals club for a guy on a hot streak with a equally hot team around him, like Cal Raleigh?

Jay Jaffe: you absolutely lost me by putting “future HOF catcher” and “Sal Perez” in the same sentence.

Jay Jaffe: and not to go all pedantic but I think you mean moribund rather than morbid, though i guess that could describe the Royals too

Jay Jaffe: I don’t really deal with fantasy questions much but I’d say punt on Perez and go with Raleigh. how bad can it be?

Phil: Is the title a Kinks reference? If so, favourite album?

Jay Jaffe: Yes, thank you for noticing! I’m not sure whether I’d call Village Green Preservation Society my favorite Kinks album but it’s on the short list along with Something Else and Face to Face, with Muswell Hillbillies just outside that frame

JC: Sad last couple of weeks for baseball but a ton of cool articles have come out on FG recently to help me from getting too down about the season.

Jay Jaffe: Glad you’re enjoying it! I am consistently impressed by the quality of the work coming from my colleagues. It pushes me to work harder, for sure.

Sean: If Julio keeps this up, can he get into the MVP conversation?

Jay Jaffe: It’s great to see what Julio is doing but the AL MVP award is almost certainly going to Ohtani, quite probably unanimously

Byron Denniston: What are your thoughts on The Future of TJ surgery?

Jay Jaffe: so long as velocity drives the equation in scouting — a situation only exacerbated by the contraction of the minor leagues, since it means fewer pitchers have room to develop — the future will be full of TJs. I’m hopeful that surgeons are getting better at TJ revisions since we seem to be getting a lot more high-profile pitchers receiving more of them, and that at least some of the situations wind up being able to use the UCL internal brace procedure, kind of a TJ lite with less time to recover.

Gold Star for Robot Boy: With Gonsolin and Dustin May out for 2024, Kershaw at even odds to either return, retire, or sign with the Rangers, and Ohtani’s future as a pitcher in doubt, what do the Dodgers do for a rotation next season?

Jay Jaffe: /me heads to bullpen

Jay Jaffe: I think they pick up Lance Lynn’s option, issue a qualifying offer to Urías and hope that he accepts (plenty of incentive to do so, esp since he won’t be able to get a 2nd one), pray that they can coax Kershaw back and get maybe 120 good innings out of Buehler. Miller and Pepiot both playing big roles, with Stone and/or Grove on the outskirts (a trade of one of those wouldn’t surprise me)

Mike M: Hey Jay, I am still in mourning over the Shohei TJ news.  I’m very VERY afraid that he will just never be peak Shohei again.  No question here. Just wanted a shoulder to cry on.

Jay Jaffe: I hear you. It’s a bummer! The good news is that Ohtani is still an elite hitter, and given time to recover should resume being one. As for the pitching, we’re all going to have to hold our breaths for the next year and hope it all unfolds well. The important thing with a 2nd TJ — if indeed that’s what he needs — is not to rush back, and he’s pretty well positioned for that assuming he doesn’t try to work up to game speed in 2024

Eric: Any thoughts on how Wilmer Flores is having a career year at age 31?

Jay Jaffe: No, not really. he’s not hitting the ball very hard at all, but is 91 points ahead of his .447 xSLG. Deserves a closer look

Sodo Mojo: Given that high school catchers are rarely successful transitioning to the major leagues and the limited shelf life of elite catchers due to the rigors of the position do you see hall of fame catchers becoming increasingly rare as we move forward?

Jay Jaffe: I think a lot is going to depend on the timeline and form of the coming robot umps. Right now it looks far less likely we’ll get a full automatic ball and strike system, which would have turned framing into a thing of the past, and more likely we’ll get a challenge system. It remains to be seen how the rule changes regarding increased stolen base rates impact the talent pool, as in if we see more strong throwing arms tracked there. But I’m not terribly worried about the future of the position

Guest: Jay, with free agency and the higher frequency of blockbuster trades do you see more players going into the hall without a logo on their caps. Verlander, Betts, Arenado, Freeman, and Goldschmidt being some possibilities of the top of my head.

Jay Jaffe: it would not at all surprise me if more players go that route. in recent years we’ve seen Maddux, Mussina, Halladay, McGriff and LaRussa go in logo-free, whereas I think Catfish Hunter was the only modern player before that (players from the earlier days and Negro Leagues don’t often have them)

Jay Jaffe: But Betts will wear an LA, mark my words

Guest: Vlad Jr. will probably be at $20-22 million in arbitration next year. Disregarding age, what would his skillset get on a one-year deal in free agency? I’m thinking David Ortiz, who was getting $15 million on short-term contracts near the end, but that was a few years ago and may not be a very good comparable!

Jay Jaffe: That’s a good question. Given his offensive and defensive woes,  his value is falling; that 6.3-WAR 2021 season feels like it was half a decade ago. Something in the $25 million range wouldn’t surprise on a one-off, but unless he starts trending upwards I don’t see him getting much higher than that or getting a long-term deal at a higher AAV

sandwiches4ever: Every PA given to Josh Donaldson — if he returns — is a wasted opportunity for the Yankees. Would they have to DFA him if he were cleared to play and didn’t want to reinstate him to the roster?

Jay Jaffe: I honestly think a DFA is where this is headed. I’m not certain if no allowing him to go through the normal rehab assignment process would be grounds for a grievance, but at best it’s probably going to be a mini-showcase for him to audition for another team. I think even the Yankees realize it’s time to move on [Update: the Yankees actually moved on while this chat was in session]

Keith C: Who in 23’ surprised you regarding expected rebounds that turned into sustained declines, and vice versa, guys who pulled out of tailspins that seemed permanent?

Jay Jaffe: Vlad Jr’s failure to turn things around is a puzzler, especially when it seemed some positive regression was in store when I looked at him right after the Derby https://blogs.fangraphs.com/vlad-jr-makes-history-with-derby-win-but-h…

Jay Jaffe: I’m also surprised that Javier Báez hasn’t turned things around and has instead dug a deeper hole

NL MVP: Mookie or Acuna? Who ya got at this precise moment in time?
For a more nuanced view, how do you, personally, define “valuable” in terms of the NL 2023 edition of this award? Both teams are juggernauts running away with their divisions (for now, at least)

Jay Jaffe: Over the past couple of weeks i’ve started to lean Betts. I love Acuña and there’s no doubt he’s putting up a season for the ages with his HR/SB combo, and it’s not like he’s cooled off at the plate after his hot start. His April and August wRC+ are within a few points of each other and likewise his 1st/2nd half

Jay Jaffe: But

Jay Jaffe: What Betts has done, moving back to the middle infield and playing shortstop like he’s Lindor’s little brother has been remarkable. The flexibility he’s afforded the Dodgers has done a lot to stretch a roster that’s thinner than usual, and he’s taken over the WAR lead and NL wRC+ lead along the way. Given how all of that helped turn the Dodgers from a team that was uncharacteristically chasing first place into one that  increasingly has the division salted away, I think that breaks what is more or less a tie for me on the value question

Pumpsie: As an organization, do you predict the Orioles will act more like the Rays or the Astros? Like the Rays, their youth is a bit of an illusion as they slow-played some guys in the minors; like the Astros, they tanked up on high draft picks. The Astros spent money out of those dark years; the Rays just keep on Ray-ing. Are recent O’s ownership comments a smokescreen?

Jay Jaffe: I think they’re more like the Rays in terms of their belief of how far they can stretch a dollar and how little they’re willing to spend, but John Angelos is more full of shit than either of the other two teams’ owners — which is saying something

Aaron: I’ve been thinking about which HoF player had the most notable injury history that they had to overcome in the context of thinking about Ohtani’s now two elbow injuries. Does anyone come to mind?

Jay Jaffe: I don’t have an easy offhand answer but one that strikes me is Jim Palmer missing most of his age-21 and all of his age-22 season (1967-68) with arm problems in the days before Tommy John or rotator cuff surgery were real options

Iron man: What do you consider the minimum number of games to say a player played a “full season”? In 2022 there were qualified batters with <120 games. I feel like 120 games is not a “full season”, but I’m not sure where I draw the line. Maybe 130 games, which is 80% of the season? Even that seems low, a player could miss a full month and still play 130 games.

Jay Jaffe: it’s a semantics thing that I don’t have terribly strong feelings about but I’d say 130ish games is pretty full

Jay Jaffe: it allows for an injury absence or maybe some aches and pains but a team doesn’t have to go crazy covering for that long

Guest: When does the SP HOF correction finally come? Today, there are 4 active, obvious, traditional selections for HOF SPs (Verlander, Kershaw, Scherzer, Greinke). Compare that to 1980, there were at least a dozen guys still active who had undeniably earned HOF induction. I think guys like Tim Hudson (very good for a long time) or Sale/Degrom (otherworldly for a brief time) should be considered HOF-worthy given the change in pitcher usage over the past 30 years or so

Jay Jaffe: if it’s going to happen i think it starts retrospectively with some of the guys I’ve highlighted in the past such as Hershiser, Cone,  Stieb and Santana. The problem with that is that it depends on the bottlnecks that the Hall has imposed upon the Era Committee process to subside, and I just don’t think that’s in the cards anytime soon

Re: BROOKLYN: Congrats on accepting/closing!!

Jay Jaffe: Oh, we’re not even close to closing. Just said yes to an offer on our place and had someone say yes to the offer we made. Closing would happen during the playoffs — good thing I won’t have to worry about covering the Yankees or Mets in person then LOL

Guest: Any thoughts on Marcus Semien as an outside chance to get to HOF ?

Jay Jaffe: Wrote about him here (https://blogs.fangraphs.com/cooperstown-notebook-the-2023-progress-rep…) and he’s already surpassed his end-of-season projection. He’s sneaking into the picture.

Matt VW: Bill Simmons started his latest podcast by calling the Mookie Betts deal “the worst Boston sports trade of [his] lifetime.” I get it could look even worse with the passing of time, but for now it’s still got to be Bagwell for Andersen, no?

Jay Jaffe: I think that’s still a fair position but there was no emotion tied up in losing Bagwell, who was a complete unknown at the time except maybe to prospect heads, and Larry Andersen didn’t linger around Boston to remind people of their folly. Betts was beloved in Boston and Verdugo is a promising player but also a headache and a half, so I understand Simmons’ position

Zombocom: And I’m giddy because the mariners are in first place. This year’s team is definitely better than last year’s, but there’s enough time left in the season to be anxious about whether or not they can keep this up. As an impartial and experienced observer of baseball, do you think they look like a contender?

Jay Jaffe: yes, albeit one with some holes. But I really do like their rotation more than most other contenders’ and they’re a lot of fun to watch these days

Jaffe rhymes with Taffy: Hi Jay – it’s August 29 and all thirty managers that started the year are still managing their team.  Is this notable?

Jay Jaffe: Not particularly. You only have to go back to 2021 to find a season where all 30 managers made it through the season, and 2017 before that. We’re about to hit the point where we see a could see a few early dismissals

Teoscar Hernández: Do you think he gets a QO from the Mariners after this season?

Jay Jaffe: No. trending downward from that 2020-21 high, solid player but I don’t see the Mariners going there

mac: it would be insane for the yankees to jettison gleyber torres to open up a spot for oswald peraza unless they’re planning a total teardown, no?

Jay Jaffe: Torres is a year away from free agency and could still probably fetch a decent return in trade, so I don’t think it’s insane but I also don’t think it’s a move the Yankees are likely to do.

Scott: Ohtani to M’s this off-season makes a lot more sense now, right?  Deep enough in pitching he can hit while rehabbing the arm and gets to play with Julio.

Jay Jaffe: Honesty there’s only a few teams that make sense to me as suitors for him, namely the Dodgers, Giants, and Mariners. Sure the Angels will try, but the wreckage of his run with them will loom large, and I don’t see either the Mets or Yankees being real players for him given the state of their rosters. The Cubs, if they decide to commit to spending a lot, might be the X factor, but I’m not sure they can convince Ohtani to leave the west coast.

v2micca: Tangential to Bryce Harper, I’ve noticed that among active players currently on a hall of fame trajectory, very few of them were top 10 picks.  It feels like, in spite of the advances of sabre metrics, front offices still really struggle to consistently identify the best future players in the draft when compared to other sports leagues.

Jay Jaffe: Cole (1st), Correa (1st), Verlander (2nd), Machado (3rd), Greinke (6th), Kershaw (7th), and Lindor (8th) stand out as top-10 picks who appear to be on the way, but as we know, drafting is something of a crapshoot and always has been; it took 23 years for a team to choose a future Hall of Famer at #1 (Griffey)

Jay Jaffe: i think part of the problem is teams drafting high up are often scared of the bonus demands and so players fall out of the top 10. if the top 10 picks were judged solely by long-term future ability, the draft would look different

Jesse: Where is the new place, Jay?

Jay Jaffe: more or less the divide between Windsor Terrace and Kensington, between Prospect Park and the baseball-famous Greenwood Cemetary

Jay Jaffe: Further out than I ever thought I’d go but I was pleasantly surprised at the property we found

Brotz13: I know that the Orioles were projected to be sub-.500 this year because they’d already jumped from 52-110 (2021) to 83-79 (2022), and teams typically regress after such a leap. They just won #82 last night, with 31 left to play. Is this an unprecedented run of improvement?

Jay Jaffe: That’s a better question for Dan

glt4dc: Why is Schwarber this year considered to be barely a positive WAR-producing player (0.5) compared to last season (2.7)?  His defensive metrics are a little worse(r), his AVG is 30 points lower and his SLG has also dropped.  But he’s on track for a similar # of HRs and R with last year?

Jay Jaffe: HR and Run totals don’t matter. What does is his park-adjusted production, and he’s dropped from a 129 wRC+ to 111, with worse fielding metrics and worse baserunning too. Total disaster of a season

Tiger Fan: Would it be possible for Shohei Ohtani to be considered the best baseball player ever without putting up the counting statistics of past baseball inner sanctum HOF players (Babe Ruth, Hank Aaron, Willie Mays, etc)?

Jay Jaffe: it depends on what we’re talking about when we use the word “best.” He’s an unprecedented combination of pitching and hitting skill deployed contemporaneously, and he’s doing it to far superior competition than Ruth (segregated) or the offense-only guys (Aaron, Mays, and even Bonds). But if one values longevity, that’s not unreasonable, and he’s not there yet

RAGBRAI: Are SBs way up or about what’s was expect? Do you see this trend continue next year? Will these changes and SB numbers be looked at like the “juiced” ball era HRs?

Jay Jaffe: I don’t know that there was a universal expectation for where SB would head but SB per game is up 39%, which is a pretty big jump, and I don’t see anything with imminent rule changes that makes it likely to cease. it’s tough to guess how this period will be perceived one year into what may very well be an open-ended period that last years

Jay Jaffe: OK folks, time go to tell the 7-year-old kiddo she’s getting a yard. Thanks so much for stopping by today!

Jay Jaffe: Whoops, this is a really good question I’m just gonna leave here with a very brief answer:

El Tim: Since your last chat Mookie has passed Shoeless Joe and Frank Robinson in RF peak value. He should get by Mel Ott for 5th in the next few days and his ROS projection puts him ahead of Clemente. Those are sure some names. He’s also now the betting favorite for MVP. He’s never quite received the “we’re lucky to be alive to witness this” reverence of Trout or Ohtani, but my word. Assuming he hits those milestones, how much would this season affect your perspective on his place in baseball history?

Jay Jaffe: Whether or not he wins MVP, I think we’re starting to see Mookie’s legacy come into focus. He’s been a superstar in two places, playing MVP-caliber ball and driving his team in the direction of championships, and if he’s not at Trout/Ohtani levels, he’s really working towards becoming one of those slam-dunk first ballot guys

Jay Jaffe: OK, signing off for real now