Jay Jaffe FanGraphs Chat – 9/5/23

Jay Jaffe: Good afternoon folks, and welcome to my first chat of this sweltering (in Brooklyn where it’s 92 degrees) September!

Jay Jaffe: Hope you all had nice long weekends. Just before the weekend I did this about Tony Gonsolin’s Tommy John surgery, a now-outdated snapshot of the Dodgers’ rotation (ugh) and a look at TJS trends in general https://blogs.fangraphs.com/tony-gonsolin-and-recent-tommy-john-surger…
I’m working on something on Royce Lewis for tomorrow.

KC Pain: Better Star Wars name, Cal Quantrill or Akil Baddoo?

Jay Jaffe: Baddoo is a name that seems seems straight out of Phantom Menace, though I’d also believe that Quantrill flew alongside Luke Skywalker in A New Hope and/or Empire Strikes Back.

v2micca: Even three years in, I really dislike the extra innings ghost-runner rule.  Which is more likely, the rule is eventually applied to post season play, or the rule is removed from regular season play.  (Yes, I know there is a third option but I want to know which you think is more likely of the first two)

Jay Jaffe: I’d say more likely to be applied to postseason play BUT I very, very much doubt that will happen. The move to do so in regular season just makes life simpler for teams (and players), and they tend to like it because it gets them home earlier, but I don’t see anybody hungering to have a playoff game decided that way.

Clara: How do teams decide if small sample later career breakouts like DJ Stewart’s have any possibility of being real going forward?

Jay Jaffe: The underlying metrics are part of it — does this guy’s batted ball stats and other peripherals support the top-line numbers? Understanding why a player is getting those kind of results is important, too, and it’s likely the piece of information the public doesn’t have. What changed for him? Was it a new approach, a mechanical adjustment, better health? Those factors are all ones that a team wants to know when considering how much to trust a smaller sample.

Clara: I’d like to know how in the world Cole Ragans has been so good since being traded, and if we should expect him to stay this good going forward

Jay Jaffe: Three chats in a row, somebody has asked when we’d cover Cole Ragans, and today, folks, that day is here https://blogs.fangraphs.com/the-cole-train-has-taken-kansas-city-by-st…

Jay Jaffe: That’s Esteban Rivera writing that one. Also, old friend Eno Sarris wrote about him last week. Short version seems to be new pitch mix (including the addition of a slider) and better conditioning and flexibility https://theathletic.com/4822997/2023/09/01/royals-cole-ragans-101-mph-…

Gold Star for Robot Boy: Last week, I asked you about what the Dodgers do for a rotation in 2024. Welp, in the light of breaking news, what does the team do for a postseason rotation in 2023?

Jay Jaffe: Man, who the hell knows? I think in all likelihood Urías has thrown his last pitch as a Dodger — the administrative leave alone might prevent him from taking the field again this season, and if he’s found to have violated the policy, as a second-time offender I suspect he will be in for a bigger penalty. It probably depends upon whom they face but I’d expect Kershaw, Lynn and Miller to start, with either Pepiot or Yarbrough (or possibly both) taking the bulk of a fourth game, possibly with an opener.

Jay Jaffe: What an utterly disappointing turn of events regarding a promising pitcher. I hope Urías wife and family are okay.

mac: jasson dominguez is on pace for 769 home runs in the first 5000 PAs of his career. does he go into the hall first-ballot

Jay Jaffe: LOL. He’s certainly off to a promising start. I’ll check in on the remade Yankees at some point in the next couple of weeks, but will note for now that I did find myself watching their Houston series where I had basically ignored the team for weeks because they no longer figure in a playoff hunt.

Wes: Who (outside of Mookie Betts) did the best job of solidifying his Hall of Fame case?  Who, if anyone, hurt his chances this year?

Jay Jaffe: Ohtani reaching 10 bWAR is big. Marcus Semien, Freddie Freeman, and Francisco Lindor have also made substantial gains.

Jay Jaffe: Of the guys who hurt their chances, Josh Donaldson was already in grave danger of missing out and his Hall chances are now effectively DOA despite a 41.7 WAR peak score. Carlos Correa’s down season doesn’t bode well.

Farhandrew Zaidman: Was perusing B-Ref’s year-by-year league averages. Runs/game up to 4.62 (roughly mid to late 2000s), SB/game at 0.71 (roughly mid-late 90s), SO/game 8.59 (still nearly an all time high, but lower than 2019 levels). All this to say – are you as a fan happy with the current run environment?

Jay Jaffe: The scoring level is about right – 4.5 runs per team per game is about what I like. I could stand to see fewer strikeouts though

Adley Rutschman: Do you think the O’s eventually pay any of Gunnar, Grayson, or me at some point? Or are we all destined for new teams when we’re FA’s?

Jay Jaffe: Based on what John Angelos has said in recent weeks, I’m skeptical, but at the same time what he said was so nonsensical i’m not sure anyone should pay attention to that idiotic failson.

bringbackpologrounds: I enjoyed reading Michael Baumann’s article on batting average last week. I found that only 6 active hitters have a career average above .300 (Arraez, Altuve, Cabrera, Freeman, Bichette, and Trout). This may be more of a Dan question, but how many active players will finish their career over .300? There have been lots of dropouts in recent years (Pujols, Votto, LeMahieu, Betts, McNeil, and Blackmon).

Jay Jaffe: The magic career total ZiPS sheet I got from Dan this past winter has exactly one (1) active player projected to finish at 300 or above and it’s the guy who shouldn’t be playing at all and who’s four weeks from the finish line: Miguel Cabrera (.307). Now, that’s hardly the whole story, and you’d need Dan to tell you that, say, Arraez or [pick any player] has a 43% chance of finishing his career at .300 or above, and that the expected yield from today’s active players is 3.8 or something

Nate: Could Cody Bellinger still make a HOF run?  Or has his awful 2020-2022 run doomed his chances?

Jay Jaffe: I wouldn’t count him out entirely because he’s checked a few important boxes — MVP season, WAR lead, Gold Glove, championship — but 2019 is his only season worth 5.0 WAR or more out of seven. He’s demonstrated the skills to reach that level before but can he maintain or restore them? Odds are against.

Adley Is Daddy: Why do rebuilding teams always seem to get going and become playoff-caliber earlier than expected (see Cubs, Astros, Orioles this year)? And what would you say is the Orioles’ prime 2-year World Series window, knowing their roster and hoarding of AAA Top 100 prospects?

Jay Jaffe: It’s important to remember that rebuilds are tough to predict, and that not every one of them pans out (hello, Tigers). Hell, if it’s so hard to foresee a collection of talent like the 2023 Padres turn into a sub-.500 disappointment, how can we be expected to know how well half a dozen key prospects will line up in terms of progress? I think it’s important to remember that a lot of the issue has to do with things beyond a team’s control — what’s the competition doing? In the Orioles’ case, that means the Yankees stumbling into a worst-in-a-long-time season, and the Red Sox, um, doing whatever the hell it is they’re doing; both of those things have helped Baltimore’s cause. If they’re going to be a World Series contender with this core, I’d imagine it’s the next couple of years where that happens, before Angelos decides to Not Pay Rutschman or whatever.

Casey: Mets fan here.  (Sigh.)  What are your projections for the Mets-related candidates on this year’s ballot?  I’m betting Wagner goes in and Beltran makes a big jump forward after so many writers seemed inclined to give him a one-year punishment.  Other than that, I see Wright cracking double digits, Bartolo living to fight another day, and Reyes being a one-and-done.

Jay Jaffe: I think Wagner has a real shot but with Beltré and Mauer hitting the ballot and with Helton closer to the finish line I don’t know that there’s room for four honorees. I do expect Beltrán to improve but he won’t get in this year. Wright won’t reach double digits and may go one-and-done. I would expect Bartolo will as well.

YorDaddy: Who will be the next non-Shohei HOFer out of Asia?

Jay Jaffe: Ichiro will go in first-ballot in 2025. Beyond him and Ohtani, there’s nobody who’s likely at all. Darvish won’t get there, alas.

Justin: Jay, I’m wondering if you can point me to one of your articles that goes into detail re: HOFers by decade of MLB debut. I think you’ve talked about it a lot, but I have been having trouble finding one of those articles. Thanks!

Jay Jaffe: I don’t recall specifically addressing year of debut, but I do track year (or at least decade) of birth and player-team-season concentrations. See here (https://blogs.fangraphs.com/cooperstown-notebook-some-insights-from-th…) and here (https://blogs.fangraphs.com/cooperstown-notebook-insights-from-the-spr…) for starters

Tim: Is there a reason Fangraphs has adopted OAA for defense but still uses UBR rather than the baseball savant baserunning metric? UBR leaves out a lot of relevant information that is factored into Runner Runs.

Jay Jaffe: OAA is only part of the fielding calculation; we use it for the range component of UZR in calculating WAR. See https://blogs.fangraphs.com/a-fangraphs-war-fielding-update/

As for UBR, it only covers non-stolen base baserunning, and we use weighted Stolen Base (wSB) and weighted Ground into Double Play (wGDP) as well as UBR in cacluating Baserunning Runs (BRR), which is what gets used in WAR https://library.fangraphs.com/war/war-position-players/

Jay Jaffe: At some point I imagine we’ll consider swapping components out for Statcast versions, but it’s not a discussion I’ve been part of thus far.

Izzy: Is Justin Steele an ace? I’m not talking record and ERA… is he an actual ace or do the Cubs still need to find one? I definitely think they need at least another #2 type.

Jay Jaffe: I don’t consider Steele dominant enough to be a true ace — he doesn’t strike out enough hitters, and he’s got A LOT of unearned runs that aren’t included in that ERA  – but he’s a fine pitcher who’s right in the thick of the NL Cy Young race. IMO, the Cubs definitely need another frontliner if they’re going to be real contenders.

Retired WFT Fan: Do you have any recommendations for someone looking to dip their feet into baseball writing? How much R or Python does a Jay Jaffe or Ben Clemens need to know?

Jay Jaffe: I don’t know any R or Python at all, but my skill set and career should hardly serve as a roadmap for somebody who aspires to write about baseball. You’re much better off learning that stuff as well as taking writing courses focused upon helping you write better (something I have done).

v2micca: Speculation is that Ohtani wants to stay on the West Coast, but he also wants to play for a contender.  If we accept this as fact, how much has Seattle increased their odds to land him with their recent play?

Jay Jaffe: I think they have a reasonable shot at signing him and that the West Coast factor is very real. Certainly doesn’t hurt their cause that they’re gunning for a playoff spot again.

Yoshida’s Island: Walker Buehler is being stretched out to start in the minors

Jay Jaffe: Saw that, and should have mentioned it above in my Dodgers answer but… boy, I do not like this.

To be clear, I love what Buehler brings to the mound but I don’t like how quickly he’s returning from his second TJ — it’s an interval that’s not far off the short end of returns from a first TJ. The industry has generally gone 16-18ish months for 2nd TJs and he’s coming back in 13.

Nate: How much do awards (or top 3 / 5/ etc. finishes) factor into your HOF decision making process?  It’s easy to see some bad voting in hindsight, but does how the player was perceived at the time matter much to you?  (As an aside, I was looking at Larry Walker’s BR page and saw that he went .350/.449/.662 with 7.8 WAR in 2001 and got only one 10th place vote).

Jay Jaffe: It’s certainly something to note, both in terms of understanding the way a player was regarded in his time and the way he might be considered now that we have so much more information. Knowing that in a more WAR-centric age Chase Utley might have fared better in the MVP votes that teammates Jimmy Rollins and Ryan Howard won, that’s something I’ll be bringing up in his profile, for example.

Dan the Man McGRAWWWW: Are the Red Sox happy with their investment in Yoshida?

Jay Jaffe: You’d have to ask them, but I see Yoshida’s offense (119 wRC+) as satisfactory while noting that his overall value is being undercut by his defense, which admittedly is sometimes hard to get a read on when we’re talking about one year in front of the Green Monster. The metrics don’t like what he’s doing but it’s tough to evaluate.

Kevin: Greinke isn’t going to get to 3000 this year…does he try to come back in 2024, and would the Royals (or anyone else) sign him?

Jay Jaffe: I suspect that he comes back and probably to KC to get those final strikeouts (he’s at 2,962) but it wouldn’t surprise me if they’re his only suitor, or if he walks away just shy of 3,000. Zack Gonna Zack.

CorbinBurnesTruther: What on earth is wrong with Corbin Burnes? Is he no longer a superstar?

Jay Jaffe: he’s not throwing quite as hard as before; his average cutter velocity is down about one mile per hour from 2021 and is getting less cut. Some of his other pitches are down 1.5 mph. Whether it’s injury/wear or self-preservation, I don’t know, but he’s merely a good pitcher and not a great one these days.

Wireless Joe Jackson: Royce Lewis has been possessed by the spirit of 1998 Shane Spencer.  How many more grand slams will he hit this week?

Jay Jaffe: 2.7

Wireless Joe Jackson: I don’t necessarily hate position players pitching, but Cleveland put one in in the sixth inning and I can now say I hate that.  Should there be some guardrails here?

Jay Jaffe: The guardrail is the score margin, and it was just adjusted this year to where a team can only use a position player when down eight or more, or up 10 or more. Both were changed from  being up or down at least six runs, a rule that was only enforced last year after being waived in 2020 and ’21.

Idiotic Failsons: Thanks for the new band name.

Jay Jaffe: you’re welcome.

Came up with a doozy this weekend in describing my daughter and my wife’s bestie’s two kids, one older and one younger. We went to a beach and the three of them spent a lot of time killing the spotted lantern flies that are infesting the area. Spotted Lantern Fly Death Squad’s new EP drops next month.

PhilsPhan: Jay- I have doubts about Joey Votto and Z Grienke being definite hall of famers. The WAR is close to enough, but the career drop offs for both is pretty atrocious and in the case of Grienke I’m not sure peak was enough … am I wrong ?

Jay Jaffe: You’re wrong.

Jay Jaffe: The career dropoffs are hardly atypical — this isn’t Andruw Jones fading at 30.

Jay Jaffe: Greinke had a Cy Young-winning season and a second that could easily have been one. It’s easy to forget that he also added a bit of extra value with his offense, since no pitchers will get to do so going forward. His peak score is a little top-heavy but his 200+ wins, 3000-ish strikeouts, 121 ERA+, etc make him a lock.

John Olerud’s Helmet: Hello Mr Jay!! Do we ever see the day a middle reliever gets inducted into the HOF? I’m thinking along the lines of a David Robertson type, someone who wasn’t always a traditional closer but was a dominant arm out of the pen

Jay Jaffe: I doubt it. It’s hard enough getting elite closers into the Hall, and when you remove the saves, All-Star appearances, and occasional dent in awards voting, there’s just not much to go by for a non-closer.

Wrote about Robertson here, not that I went into a ton of detail https://blogs.fangraphs.com/cooperstown-notebook-the-2023-progress-rep…

Smiling Politely: hypothetically, if Corey Seager plays another 700 games in 7 yrs in his career (maybe the last 100 at DH), but finishes his career 290/355/500, is he a HoFer? I can’t think of another batter who’s as good as he is when healthy but rarely is (Josh Hamilton, sorta, albeit for diff reasons). He

Jay Jaffe: No, because he really needs to get to 2,000 hits to have a real shot, and he’s six shy of 1,000

Jay Jaffe: Seager is on my docket as a player to write about soon.

Awards voter #12: Who do I vote for NL Cy Young and NL MVP? NL Cy Young could go different ways depending on what you value and NL MVP just seems really close.

Jay Jaffe: This is one I want to take a closer look at because with four weeks to go there’s no clear-cut favorite, and I think somebody needs to step up in September. Strider, Steele, Snell, Gallen, even Wheeler (leads all pitchers in fWAR) — seems like every metric gives a different pecking order and it’s tough to sift through them all.

Bo Bichette: How am I not on the Star Wars name list?  Still bounty hunting in the off season.

Jay Jaffe: Boba Chette, nephew of Boba Fett

Farhandrew Zaidman: For the record on Buehler, the explicit goal is to stretch him to 3-4 innings, not as a traditional starter.

Jay Jaffe: I know, and i’m just as worried about him dialing it up to 97-98 as i am regarding his pitch counts.

Andrew: Hi Jay, thanks for the chat. Have you ever looked at enshrined HOFers to see when, on aggregate, their peak 7 years occurred? Wondering what that distribution looks like (do most peak 7 seasons occur before a player is 28 years old? 30 years old? etc.).

Jay Jaffe: Ooh, that’s a good question. Remember, it’s not seven consecutive years but best seven at large. I would need some help with this one but it’s something to look into.

Boba: What do you think of the HOF’s revamped Era Committees?  Are you a fan?  Which executives do you think will be on this year’s ballot, and who do you think will make it?

Jay Jaffe: Glad that Negro Leagues and pre-Negro Leagues Black baseball candidates are being considered more than once every 10 years and that managers/umps/execs have a separate track in the post-1980 era but..

I don’t like the reduction in the number of committees, the number of candidates, or the ossification of the Historical Overview Committee that makes the ballots (generally full of BBWAA elders who bypassed those players the first time around).

KC Pain: Has there been a better career that limped to the HOF more than Miguel Cabrera?  The loss of power sure, but the BA, just all around seems sad. It feels like forever ago he was a stud and yet his overall numbers still are shiny.

Jay Jaffe: Very similar to Pujols, actually

Looking for Medical Advice: Shohei’s agent claims that the original TJ operation is still intact and that the tear is somewhere else on the elbow. As a (baseball) medical professional does this actually matter? Will teams treat this as a 2nd risky TJ or something “slightly” less career threatening?

Jay Jaffe: It’s tough to know how to read what the agent was saying except that it seems the possibility of a UCL InternalBrace is in play. I still don’t think they’ll know enough until they open up the elbow, however.

Jay Jaffe: OK folks, I have to take my kid to the dentist. Again. Thanks for stopping by, and hopefully we’ll do another one of these in seven days!