Jeff Sullivan FanGraphs Chat — 10/1/13

October 1, 2013

9:01	Jeff Sullivan: Hey guys, and welcome to this chat.

9:01	Jeff Sullivan: In this chat, I will attempt to express more opinions than usual!

9:01	Jeff Sullivan: Come get some!

9:02	Jeff Sullivan: First opinion: these pancakes are delicious.

9:02	Comment From Bob 1 minute off? That’s pretty impressive.

9:03	Jeff Sullivan: And only because I couldn’t open my kitchen window for a moment.

9:03	Jeff Sullivan: I don’t like that about my kitchen window!

9:03	Comment From Marty Ron Washington done?

9:03	Jeff Sullivan: I think the Rangers already expressed assurances that Washington isn’t going anywhere. And I don’t think he should — he seems to have a good handle of everything there, and it’s not him who wilts down the stretch.

9:04	Comment From Dave Gun to your head, who wins tonight?

9:04	Jeff Sullivan: Pirates, because of Liriano

9:04	Comment From Guest What’s your opinion of Derek Jeter?

9:04	Jeff Sullivan: I am glad he’s existed exactly as he’s existed in the game

9:05	Jeff Sullivan: I am glad for his personality, I am glad for his strengths, and I am glad for his most visible weaknesses

9:05	Comment From Guest Do you spend any time projecting offseason moves for the Mariners?

9:05	Jeff Sullivan: It’ll be fun to think about, but I can’t climb inside their heads. I suspect they’re going to try to allocate a lot of money to free agency, but I don’t know if players are going to buy what the Mariners are selling, on account of they suck.

9:05	Comment From Baseball Fan i like baseball

9:05	Jeff Sullivan: Rangers fans 🙁

9:06	Comment From Max Opinion: Should i wear the blue sweater or the black sweater?

9:06	Jeff Sullivan: Blue

9:06	Comment From eknpdx Well balance opinion piece at USSMariner on Wedge leaving. For a sport that is heavily invested in stats, the emotional side of fans and players of time.

9:06	Jeff Sullivan: Something about Wedge and being a lame duck:

9:06	Jeff Sullivan: Ned Yost just re-signed with the Royals. His contract was up. He was a lame duck, and that didn’t seem to bother anybody

9:06	Comment From CC Do you think Washington could use another shutdown pitcher?

9:07	Jeff Sullivan: Well, everybody could. They’re no different. Haven’t loved their rotation depth lately

9:08	Comment From Dewey Most overrated player of 2013 in your opinion?

9:09	Jeff Sullivan: Oof, this is so hard

9:10	Jeff Sullivan: I’ll have to go with Prince Fielder

9:10	Jeff Sullivan: Not wedded to it, but I dont’ know how to measure overratedness

9:10

Comment From Andrew
I have read the Pirates sub-group starting pitchers by different traits, beyond handedness, for match up purposes. Does anyone in the public do anything similar? I do not know if this would be more helpful than lefty/righty splits? It sounds laborious and would the payoff be significant?

9:11

Jeff Sullivan: It makes sense to sub-group pitchers by factors that matter, even if they might be of different handednesses. I don’t know of anyone who publicly does this to any meaningful research extent. Payoffs would probably be small, but if nothing else I bet you could learn some things. Is a certain matchup because a guy is left-handed, or is it because of his weapons and/or his delivery?

9:11

Comment From Bret
If you were to look at JP Arencibia’s FanGraphs page or watched him play at all this season, you would likely say something like, “By golly, that man is having one lousy year.” But then yesterday JP Arencibia got engaged to a pretty lady from the Band Perry who probably has a ton of money too. So maybe he didn’t have that bad of a year after all?

9:12	Jeff Sullivan: And he got better at framing

9:12	Jeff Sullivan: Also, holy crap, forgot about The Band Perry, and it’s only been like one or two years since I recall them being a thing

9:12	Comment From Sirras One Pirates or A’s as the “everybody loves an underdog/historically disadvantaged team”?

9:13	Jeff Sullivan: Pirates are more sympathetic

9:13	Comment From Coodle Breaking Bad. Opinion?

9:13	Jeff Sullivan: I imagine I’ll never feel that way about TV again

9:13	Comment From Dave “Pirates win playoff game because of Liriano” I’ll take Hilarious Statements in 2012 for $500, Alex.

9:13	Jeff Sullivan: And this doesn’t even touch on potential Scott Kazmir stuff

9:14	Jeff Sullivan: FanGraphs is a website of baseball analysis experts!

9:14	Comment From Greg What team is Girardi managing next season?

9:14	Jeff Sullivan: Yankees

9:14	Comment From LarryA In case no one noticed, Cliff Lee had a 54/1 K/BB in 37 innings in his last 5 starts. Will he start and finish the year in Philly?

9:14	Jeff Sullivan: I think so, but mostly I wanted to enter this question because of the numbers that many people might have missed down the stretch

9:14	Jeff Sullivan: LOOK AT THE NUMBERS

9:15	Jeff Sullivan: ARE YOU LOOKING

9:15	Comment From JB If you had to provide tips to an aspiring baseball writer (more blogger/columnist not beat writer) what would you suggest?

9:16	Jeff Sullivan: Write something every day, and write with the goal of introducing something new in every piece. Basically, add value beyond what people already know and will be talking about

9:17	Comment From furLOLgh Who do you like tonight, the Pirates or House Republicans?

9:17	Jeff Sullivan: You could try to make an argument that they’re both pirates

9:17	Jeff Sullivan: Fun thing about barely following anybody on twitter, and limiting it to sports: I published a quick thing about obstruction last night, and somebody asked if it was baseball or politics, and I didn’t know what was going on

9:17	Comment From Bill Heads up: earthquake swarm in northern Iceland, being interpreted as possibly a “significant” magma intrusion. Got your plane tickets yet? More prosaically, how would you set up the St. Louis pitching rotation for the NLDS? They have interesting choices to make past Wainwright.

9:19	Jeff Sullivan: I’m thinking Wainwright/Wacha/Lynn/Miller

9:19	Jeff Sullivan: Don’t have to worry so much about opponent identity given that they’re all right-handed

9:20	Jeff Sullivan: this is a weird pose, btw http://stlouis.cardinals.mlb.com/images/masthead/y2013/clubs/bg/stl_body_bg.jpg

9:20	Comment From Ian Is it wrong that I can’t justify the Pence deal? Just doesn’t seem smart to give him what he got, given his coming years. Why hasn’t baseball learned from historical contracts at similar ages?

9:21

Jeff Sullivan: Pence loves the Giants, the Giants love Pence, and they think they have unique insight about Pence’s chances of maintaining his level of play. And maybe they do, and maybe he’ll be fine after all for a long time. It’s clearly an overpay, but I wonder if people end up exaggerating the impact of those things

9:21	Comment From Guest Would you rather have Francisco Lindor or Xander Bogaerts going forward?

9:21	Jeff Sullivan: Bogaerts

9:22	Jeff Sullivan: He’s done more at a higher level and I’m a sucker for increased safety/certainty

9:22	Comment From Andrew I was surprised at how many ESPN writers picked Oakland over Detroit.

9:22	Jeff Sullivan: I wonder if they thought beyond Miguel Cabrera playing through pain

9:23	Jeff Sullivan: “Well Cabrera isn’t himself so therefore the Tigers don’t stand a good chance”

9:23	Comment From Guest Is Ellsbury necesarily a bad buy for the M’s at his “market value”

9:23	Jeff Sullivan: No

9:23	Comment From LarryA Just thinking while watching the last Indians game: Do you think players love getting to first against the Tribe because they get to bro it up with Swisher for a few minutes? He seems like the most talkative 1B

9:23	Jeff Sullivan: I imagine he is somewhat polarizing among his peer group

9:23	Comment From raul ibañez Its hard because you dont want to hurt my feelings?

9:24	Jeff Sullivan: Nobody outside of Seattle really paid any attention to you

9:24	Comment From Person Odds that failing the playoffs on the FINAL DAY on in back to back years is going to result in the Texas front office doing something … drastic?

9:24	Jeff Sullivan: They’re going to make some bold maneuvers, I think, but I don’t think it’ll be because of these recent one-game failures. They’ll just be getting better

9:24	Comment From Bret What would make you feel more optimistic heading into a season: A team with 4 or 5 proven, high quality starting pitchers but little to no reasonable depth behind them, or a team with an average 1-5 at best but another, say, 3 or 4 useful starters waiting in the wings?

9:25	Jeff Sullivan: The first one. You can trade for decent depth if need be. The second one is destined to be unremarkable

9:26	Jeff Sullivan: Depth is underrated, but high-end talent is huge

9:26	Comment From Tom Someone the other day said that Morneau and McCutchen are the new M&M boys. This might be true if we consider Morneau to be the perpetually crappy pretzel M&Ms.

9:26	Jeff Sullivan: Why are there pretzel M&Ms?

9:26	Jeff Sullivan: They have never not been the worst.

9:26	Comment From Guest Assuming Billy Hamilton is an everyday starter next year and has an average OBP, how many steals could he get? 100?

9:27	Jeff Sullivan: Somehow, yeah, that sounds reasonable

9:27	Comment From Travis Bold prediction: Jason Heyward plays all next season like he played in the lead-off spot this season, has 8+ WAR, and wins MVP.

9:27	Jeff Sullivan: I don’t know if Heyward is the MVP sort. Too much value from defense

9:28	Comment From Smokes Do you think a manager can be “bad enough” strategically or whatever to cost their team in the playoffs, even given such a small number of games?

9:28	Jeff Sullivan: Yeah, it’s doable. A manager won’t be the whole reason a team gets eliminated, but a manager can certainly screw up at the wrong times with bunts or pitching changes or non-pitching changes

9:29	Comment From rusty bench depth / value from part-time players seems like a major factor in team success (e.g. As, Cardinals)… but those players would seem to have more volatile performance from year to year. How do you build a team to not have sucky role-players?

9:29	Jeff Sullivan: Accumulate a lot of them and stash some in the high minors

9:29	Jeff Sullivan: Treat it like a bullpen and in time you’ll find the mix that works

9:30	Comment From Prich Ever been up to Salvador Molly’s in PDX? I thought it was the best food in town…

9:30	Jeff Sullivan: Jotting a note right now

9:30	Comment From Greg How soon can the Cubs be good again? Is it unreasonable to expect them to push for a wild card next season?

9:31	Jeff Sullivan: They’re about to reach the next phase of their organizational development, where they start bringing in more established major-league talent. Next season would be a stretch, but 2015 is promising

9:31	Comment From Jay Does Brian Roberts get a starting gig handed to him next year?

9:31	Jeff Sullivan: nope

9:32	Comment From Guest Hey Jeff, I enjoyed your recent piece on Joey Votto but thought you were a little unfair to Dusty Baker. There has been a lot of criticism of Votto’s approach this season, but I can’t really remember Baker having any problems (publicly).

9:32	Jeff Sullivan: I swear I’m not trying to sound like a hotshot, but yeah, this goes beyond Baker’s public stuff

9:32	Jeff Sullivan: There is a real sense that Votto isn’t what he ought to be and people get frustrated

9:33

Comment From Billy
We strive for context neutral stats in determining value. However, there’s value in being able to control context. Pinch hitters, pinch runners, and relievers are generally used when they are used because the situation dictates it. What is the value in being able to focus your resources to those higher leverage moments?

9:33	Jeff Sullivan: There’s probably not a lot to gain from pinch-hitters and pinch-runners, but if you can optimize your bullpen usage with the best talent at the most important situations, you’re going to win a few more games

9:33	Comment From Nick O Would you try to “fix” the playoffs by making it easier for the best teams to win? Or should we just enjoy the ride?

9:34	Jeff Sullivan: Enjoy the ride. No reasonable postseason tournament is going to conclusively identify the league’s best team. The regular season tells you more. The playoffs are madness and that’s why they’re awesome

9:34	Jeff Sullivan: Whole seasons coming down to single games? I mean, what??

9:35	Comment From zack How awesome would it be if Delmon was the back to back ALCS MVP?

9:35	Jeff Sullivan: I still can’t tell what we’re supposed to make of Tampa Bay bringing him back. Want to give them the benefit of the doubt, but…

9:35	Comment From Marty How should I feel about Rob Manfred? Do we know if he is as photogenic as Selig?

9:35	Jeff Sullivan: I don’t know enough about him as an ear-cupper

9:35	Comment From Guest What kind of deal will Beltran get next year?

9:35	Jeff Sullivan: Short and similar to the last

9:37	Comment From LarryA RE: Pence. Is it still true that power/speed players tend to age better than average?

9:38

Jeff Sullivan: I think it is, but the differences are going to be slight. It’s not like there are groups of players who last forever, and others who fall off the face of the earth. Aging curves look similar, and also, aging curves are general rules, while Pence is one player in particular. And maybe he has more particular characteristics that would put him in a different group anyway

9:38	Jeff Sullivan: For example, he is not a human being

9:38	Comment From fats josh johnson had elbow surgery

9:38	Jeff Sullivan: Bone spurs. ehhh

9:39	Comment From Tom Do you think Wacha/Lynn/Miller have showed enough for the Cardinals to use Wainwright on normal rest in the playoffs rather than short rest, in an attempt to give him more starts?

9:39	Jeff Sullivan: I think it’s very rarely the right idea to use guys on short rest so I think the Cardinals should stay normal

9:40	Comment From Jordan Logistical question: If Josh Johnson is a FA, who paid for the (minor) elbow surgery he underwent this morning? Does the union pick up the tab or is it out of his pocket?

9:40	Jeff Sullivan: I think it’s still the Blue Jays?

9:40	Jeff Sullivan: That’s a good question, though.

9:41	Jeff Sullivan: I don’t know how to look this up

9:41	Comment From Prich How much/What kind of prospect can the Dodgers get for Ethier if they A) Eat a significant portion of his contract, B) Eat none of it?

9:41	Jeff Sullivan: Decent prospect/indecent prospect

9:42	Jeff Sullivan: well indecent probably isn’t the right word

9:43	Comment From Blue Myself Theo Epstein says the Cubs have free agent money for one significant player. Care to guess who it might be?

9:43	Jeff Sullivan: http://www.choochoo.com/content_images/MediaCenter/ChooChooTrain.jpg

9:43	Comment From Bret I’ve seen Dave Cameron predict a one-year, $8M deal or so for Carlos Ruiz, and today MLBTR predicted a two-year, $14M deal for Chooch. Thing is… isn’t Ruiz really good? I’d love to see the Blue Jays add him, but worry the cost would be much higher than either of those predictions.

9:44	Jeff Sullivan: His numbers just fell apart post-suspension and he turns 35 years old in January

9:44	Comment From ralph Another number that people may or may not have noticed: Cleveland finished 1 game behind the Tigers in the AL Central.

9:44	Jeff Sullivan: Yeah, that one floored me

9:44	Comment From Guest The Pirates just swept the Reds and finished the season 4 games ahead of them. Now they have to beat them again to the Wild Card.

9:45	Jeff Sullivan: Every playoff matchup has a better team and a worse team

9:46	Jeff Sullivan: The Cardinals finished well ahead of both the Pirates and the Reds. Soon they’ll have to beat one of them to get to the NLCS

9:47	Comment From Marty What does the future hold for Dan Haren? A series of 1-yr deals for the next three years?

9:47	Jeff Sullivan: Seems the likelihood, yeah

9:47	Comment From Jontler Pretzel M&Ms are awesome and your comments undermine your overall analytical abilities.

9:48	Jeff Sullivan: In my defense I haven’t actually had a pretzel M&M in years. But I have terrible memories

9:48	Comment From Guest How happy are you that the Obstruction/Smart defense poll results are very close to 50/50?

9:48	Jeff Sullivan: I love it. Even I can’t really tell, but it probably ought to be obstruction if it isn’t by the rules

9:48	Comment From Dustin Terry Ryan doesn’t think the rotation was a big problem, going so far as to crow about Pelfrey and Correia. He then talked about the good old days of having Baker, Pavano and BLackburn anchoring the rotation. Is the Pirates bandwagon full yet?

9:49	Jeff Sullivan: Strikeout rates should always be what they were in the days of Terry Ryan’s youth, according to Terry Ryan

9:49	Jeff Sullivan: If it is full you could always just start a second bandwagon

9:50	Comment From Guest Does a pitcher’s effectiveness correlate to the amount of work on his last outing? (ie. Does David Price going the distance affect his effectiveness in the ALDS? Game 3 would be essentially normal rest.)

9:50	Jeff Sullivan: In a situation like this it shouldn’t be anything to worry about

9:50	Jeff Sullivan: If a guy really throws way too many pitches, it might have a carryover effect, but Price was normal

9:50	Comment From Jontler How soon can the Twins be good again? Is it unreasonable to expect them to push for a wild c [breaks down sobbing]

9:51	Jeff Sullivan: Couple years if they do things well, so, more than a couple years

9:51	Comment From Irate Royals Fan Dayton Moore just now: “In a way I feel as if we won the World Series.”

9:52	Jeff Sullivan: In his defense he probably doesn’t remember what the actual playoffs look or feel like

9:53	Comment From Reddickulous Your choice playoff rotation for the A’s?

9:53	Jeff Sullivan: Colon/Parker/Gray/Griffin

9:54	Comment From Greg Would Hamilton be worth more as a pinch runner who could be used strategically than as a regular player?

9:54	Jeff Sullivan: Right now, yeah, probably

9:55	Jeff Sullivan: In the long run, doubt it

9:55	Comment From Mike Happy new NHL season Day Jeff! Did you see this story on your favorite new Senator Bobby Ryan? http://www.sportsnet.ca/magazine/searching-for-bobby-ryan/

9:55	Jeff Sullivan: I did see that. Only real bad thing about the MLB playoffs is that it gets in the way of watching new hockey

9:55	Comment From Jeff Juan Uribe — What’s up with that? Not only did he have a great season, but he’s also always been regarded as a plus fielder? This blew my mind.

9:56	Jeff Sullivan: Not completely unprecedented http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=454&position=SS#value

9:57	Jeff Sullivan: There’s probably a lot of noise in that signal, but I love trying to reconcile the image of Juan Uribe with the reality of Juan Uribe

9:57	Comment From Billy “There’s probably not a lot to gain from pinch-hitters and pinch-runners”… Billy Hamilton (or anyone who watched the Reds since he came up) would like a word.

9:58	Jeff Sullivan: pinch-runners, plural. find me another one!

9:58	Comment From Kyle Line for Salazar tomorrow?

9:58	Jeff Sullivan: 5 innings, 3 runs

9:58	Comment From George Given how well the Dodgers played without Kemp (not saying his absence was a reason), can you see LA being willing to trade him?

9:59	Jeff Sullivan: That one’s not happening

9:59	Comment From Guest Worse move, firing Sveum or extending Yost?

9:59	Jeff Sullivan: I don’t think I’ll ever have an actual strong opinion about any manager. We just…it’s…ehhhhh. They’re managers. So uninteresting to me.

9:59	Comment From Brendan Ryans Normal Without being entirely flip, but in 15 words or less, what is the best thing that could possibly happen to the Mariners this offseason?