Jeff Sullivan FanGraphs Chat — 10/13/17

October 13, 2017

9:04	Jeff Sullivan: Hello friends

9:05	Jeff Sullivan: Welcome to Friday baseball chat

9:05	Jeff Sullivan: Technically my second Friday baseball chat of this Friday, for you east coasters

9:05	Bork: Hello, friend!

9:05	Jeff Sullivan: Hello friend

9:06

Ray Liotta as Shoeless Joe: Jeff, thanks for chatting last night and being back again now. It was a really tough loss for Washington, but, as in every elimination game, it isn’t one play that ends a season. That said, I think there are multiple issues surrounding instant replay that the league will have to address after last night’s game. Is baseball still a game of inches? Or, with instant replay, is it now a game of millimeters?

9:07	Jeff Sullivan: There’s never going to be any way to remove all doubt or questionability from a difficult loss. That being said, it benefits no one for briefly-off-the-bag slide attempts to be reviewable as they are. Something needs to change, this winter

9:08	Kiermaier’s Piercing Green Eyes: Will the Rays be confident enough that Alex Cobb won’t accept a qualifying offer to extend him one?

9:09	Jeff Sullivan: Pretty hard for me to see the Rays wanting to risk that much money for that kind of pitcher. But given how Cobb finished, and given that the QO tag shouldn’t hurt these free agents in the way that it used to, this could actually happen

9:10	Jeff Sullivan: Still remains to be seen exactly what the consequences are for free agents of this level, but Cobb ought to be able to find multiple years if he wants them

9:11	Ray Liotta as Shoeless Joe:

9:12	Jeff Sullivan: It’s actually the set-position part that might be most unenforced

9:12	Jeff Sullivan: I see time outs granted right as the pitcher is starting his motion, and I figure those are just accidental — you can’t know exactly when the pitcher will begin, and there’s a lag in between wanting a time out and getting it — but now this is something I’m going to have to watch for

9:12	Jeff Sullivan: Boy do I hate senseless delays

9:13	doodus: Hitting into the double play when Wade Davis couldnt throw a strike was the biggest screw up

9:14	Jeff Sullivan: In Adam Lind’s defense, Wade Davis threw a first-pitch curveball right down the pipe

9:14	Jeff Sullivan: Now, I don’t know exactly why Lind swung at a first-pitch curveball, but in general, there’s nothing wrong with going after a grooved pitch, no matter what preceded them. The alternative was falling behind 0-and-1. Lind might not have seen such a hittable pitch again in the at-bat

9:14	Jeff Sullivan: Looks bad in hindsight but I think it was just a poor result

9:15

Ray Liotta as Shoeless Joe: Matt Wieters, who is bad, seemed to be the only person on the field who knew the dropped third strike contact rule. Would it behoove teams to have a physical copy of the rulebook with a low-paid intern to fact check umpires during games? Based on how quickly Twitter reacted to the play, I would think a number of fans with encyclopedic knowledge would happily sit silently in the corner of a dugout until called upon.

9:16	Jeff Sullivan: I doubt that would improve things at all

9:16	Jeff Sullivan: And I’m still not 100% convinced things didn’t go as they should’ve, anyway

9:17	Jeff Sullivan: Even calling that a dead-ball out would’ve been an unsatisfying technicality, because Baez’s contact with Wieters in no way meaningfully interfered with his effort to retrieve the baseball

9:17	Jeff Sullivan: Now, the fact that Baez was free to run in the first place is the dumbest rule in baseball, but it’s at least a well understood rule

9:17	Jeff Sullivan: God last night was bizarre

9:17	Sharp: Do you enjoy detailed, reasoned, analytical questions or questions which provoke hot takes and zinger lines more?

9:18	Jeff Sullivan: Detailed, reasoned, analytical questions don’t work very well in a live-chat format

9:18	Jeff Sullivan: If I see something that long in the queue I’ll just skip over it

9:18	Jeff Sullivan: At the same time, this isn’t really a good destination for hot takes

9:19	Jeff Sullivan: My hottest take at the moment is that people don’t actually dislike puns

9:20	Zach: At what point do the Yankees move Judge down in the lineup?

9:20	Jeff Sullivan: When he’s 36 years old and declining

9:21	Jeff Sullivan: Aaron Judge is the best hitter on the team. He will also strike out sometimes

9:21	Eric: Thoughts on the Yankees rotation? Do you like bumping Gray all the way to game 4?

9:21	Jeff Sullivan: I’ve got no issues with it. Gray might be the least likely Yankees starter to succeed against this lineup, and, again, it’s going to come down to the bullpen, anyway

9:22	Ray Liotta as Shoeless Joe: How long is the New York-Houston matchup this evening? How many innings will you watch?

9:22	Jeff Sullivan: The game will last 238 minutes. I want to watch, but, after last night, I might just need the day off

9:23	Jeff Sullivan: Haven’t decided. Just watching a game is an awful lot easier than watching and live-chatting a game

9:23	TJ: Dusty Baker and the Red Sox – make it happen!

9:23	Jeff Sullivan: Something tells me Dusty Baker would hate that

9:24	doodus: How bad do the Dodgers look if they don’t advance to the WS, narrative wise? Worse than the Nationals this postseason?

9:24	Jeff Sullivan: It’s never that bad a look to fail to advance past the defending champions, but the Dodger narrative, of course, will stretch beyond involving only this season

9:24	Zach: Of the four possible WS matchups, what is your personal ranking of what you would want to see?

9:25	Jeff Sullivan: I’d like to see the Dodgers move forward just so we can be done with the underachieving label

9:25	Jeff Sullivan: I don’t want too much time to pass by without Clayton Kershaw pitching in a World Series

9:26	Jeff Sullivan: I don’t think I have a pick in the AL. Can’t know for sure until I see what my brain does when I turn on an actual game, but I see a lot to like about both clubs

9:26	MadduxGlavineSmoltz: Dave is pretty down on the braves rebuild at this point. Where do you see the franchise at, especially considering the scandal? What would you do this offseason in Atlanta?

9:26	Jeff Sullivan: This is going to be an offseason of licking their wounds

9:27	Jeff Sullivan: They’re going to be penalized pretty heavily

9:27	Jeff Sullivan: Dave and I are of a similar opinion — neither one of us is all that fond of a rebuild built around high-risk young pitchers. At least Acuna and Albies are present

9:28	Jeff Sullivan: I think the Braves are still a few years away. Might be behind the Phillies

9:28	Babe Lincoln: Do you agree with Dave? https://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/dear-mlb-please-fix-the-slide-replay/

9:28	Jeff Sullivan: Yes, strongly

9:28	Jeff Sullivan: These replay reviews are the worst thing about baseball at the moment

9:28	Jeff Sullivan: On the field, anyway

9:29	Jeff Sullivan: Even stupid, idiot-brained retaliatory fastballs at least get people energized

9:29	Jeff Sullivan: These replays are just slow death

9:29	Wes: Does Ohtani’s ankle surgery affect him coming to the MLB or any teams decision to draft him?

9:29	Jeff Sullivan: Nah. So much value here that everything will proceed as normal provided nothing goes horribly wrong

9:30	Jeff Sullivan: Plenty of players go through offseason surgery

9:30	TJ: Do you know of any instances of GMs or front offices trying to meddle on in game match ups and lineup moves in game? With the stakes this high the temptation must be sky high

9:31	Jeff Sullivan: I can’t recall an instance of mid-game intervention, but it has probably happened. It wouldn’t be common, but in playoff scenarios, everything gets mapped out in advance

9:31	Jack: What are the odds that Cleveland would get next to nothing from three superstars? Seems like there’s bad luck and then there’s what Cleveland got in the LDS.

9:31	Jeff Sullivan: Lindor will always have the grand slam

9:31	Jeff Sullivan: That was a special moment

9:31	Millie: I can’t seem to find a reliable interpretation of what should have been called in the 5th. Do you have one?

9:32	Jeff Sullivan: I 60-70% believe that, by the letter of the law, Baez should’ve been out on a dead ball. But I 99% believe I would’ve found that annoying because Wieters was in no way inhibited by the contact

9:32	Jeff Sullivan: I also 100% believe the uncaught-third-strike rule is stupid in the first place

9:34	Jeff Sullivan: So I’m fairly sure the wrong decision was made regarding a stupid rule that occurred during a stupid rule

9:34	Seff Fullivan: Are you in any way upset about last night’s outcome?

9:35	Jeff Sullivan: Modestly dissatisfied but deeply thankful I’m not a Nationals fan

9:35	Jeff Sullivan: I’m mostly just annoyed we were all robbed of actual eighth-inning closure

9:36	Zach: Will Houston not having a good lefty reliever hurt them against Bird, Didi, etc.?

9:36	Jeff Sullivan: McCullers and Devenski are death to lefties. Not quite as good as having talented actual lefties, but I think they’re positioned fairly well

9:37	AJ Preller: Will I be able to flip Hand to a similar package I received with Kimbrel? Post Season games seem to demand dominant reliever like Hand…

9:37	Jeff Sullivan: Hand will remain hotly pursued. Excellent reliever who shouldn’t play another game in San Diego

9:38	greg: At what point in time should I start to be nervous next year as a Reds fan if they still haven’t made a decision on who, or if, they’ll move either Suarez or Senzel off of 3B?

9:39	Jeff Sullivan: They’ll make a decision when they need to. They don’t need to

9:39	Sam: What single batter-pitcher matchup are you most excited for in the LCSs?

9:39	Jeff Sullivan: Judge-Keuchel

9:40	Jeff Sullivan: Keuchel doesn’t really have the stuff to attack Judge up and in with heat

9:40	Jeff Sullivan: We know he’s going to live down and away. We know Judge will know that. It’s all going to come down to Keuchel’s pinpoint command

9:41	Dan: Has there ever been this significant of a difference between two teams and “rest”? Dodgers haven’t played since Monday, Cubs essentially gonna throw someone on 2 days rest (Quintana) or Lackey…

9:41	Jeff Sullivan: Have to think the Dodgers are pretty happy right now. The Cubs will be fine by Game 2 but I imagine the odds of Game 1 were swayed at least a few percentage points

9:41	bjogc: So, how about that decision to start Trevor Bauer on short rest deliberately?

9:42	Jeff Sullivan: Amazing how quickly things start to crumble when you assume that Corey Kluber is physically compromised

9:42	Arthur: How many non-FanGraphs baseball writers are must-reads for you and yyou read everything they write?

9:42	Jeff Sullivan: I don’t read everything anyone writes. I would like to, I would really like to, but I just don’t have time to do it. There are so many talented writers and there is so little time in the day

9:43	LegallyEagle: People fine with sliding not called to the technical dot should ease off wanting strikes called to the technical dot.

9:45

Jeff Sullivan: There’s a difference. The strike zone is meant to be enforced as accurately as possible. The only reason runners are supposed to maintain contact with the base is so that they don’t make an attempt to advance to the next one. With these slide replays, there’s never any intent of advancing. It goes against the spirit of the game

9:47	Mac Gwire: Favorite moment of the playoffs so far?

9:47	Jeff Sullivan: Every pitch thrown by Stephen Strasburg

9:47	TJ: What is your confidence level on the Astros bearing the Nyy?

9:47	Jeff Sullivan: 52%

9:47	TJ: Jeff how is your arm holding up? Is someone already getting hot in the chat bullpen?

9:47	Jeff Sullivan: You can pry this chat out of my cold dead hands

9:48	Oddball Herrera: All things considered w/ their current contracts, aging players and impending free agents, should the Nationals treat 2018 as championship or bust? They seem perilously close to the end of a window.

9:49	Jeff Sullivan: They’ll still have Scherzer, Strasburg, Rendon, Eaton, Roark, Taylor, etc, and we’ll see how Robles develops

9:49	Jeff Sullivan: There’s a certain sense of urgency here but I don’t think the Nationals are about to collapse

9:49	Justin: So the Astros should be favorites, but are we going to count out the Yankees here?

9:49	Jeff Sullivan: What

9:49	Jeff Sullivan: No, of course not

9:50	Jeff Sullivan: The Yankee bullpen is a god damned obscenity

9:50	Sleepy: How big is MLB’s LCS-related ratings boner right now? Gotta be raging, right?

9:51	Jeff Sullivan: If we are to think of MLB as being in possession of male genitalia, any erection couldn’t exceed 100% normal capacity

9:51	Jeff Sullivan: That is, for any given individual or corporate monopoly, a boner is a boner

9:51	Andy: the cubs flew to LA in middle of the night and got stuck in ABQ for 3+ hours. how much money are you betting that the cubs will win game 1 now?

9:52	Jeff Sullivan: I bet on baseball once and I will never do it again

9:52	Jeff Sullivan: Never bet on baseball

9:52	Jeff Sullivan: Don’t be a moron

9:53	Mark: Why do you think the Yanks have lost faith in Gray? is it just Houston hits him well? A month ago he was being talked about as a Game 1 starter

9:53	Jeff Sullivan: Gray hasn’t been very good as a Yankee

9:53	Jeff Sullivan: He’s not Severino, and he’s probably not Tanaka

9:53	Jeff Sullivan: Him or Sabathia, I don’t know and I don’t care, but Gray’s not some kind of ace

9:54	Corey: Just asking, is there an underlying reason that Gregorius’ success needs to be rationalized?

9:54	Jeff Sullivan: I felt like he was being under-covered. I wanted to write about him after the ALDS anyway. I did not anticipate that Game 5 of the NLDS would be so insane, such that the Gregorius post would go live at a time when no one would want to read it

9:55	Mike: you know in some states making you work less than 11 hours after your last shift is not allowed

9:55	Jeff Sullivan: I imagine those same states wouldn’t think of live baseball chatting as work

9:56	Jeff Sullivan: I’m getting paid to moderate a chat room. It’s really incredible

9:57	Kevin K: Do you think pythagorean/run differential-based assessments of team strength will become less useful in the super-bullpen era? It definitely seems realistic that some teams will outperform/underperform their pythagorean based on the strength of their bullpen

9:57	Jeff Sullivan: BaseRuns just held up about as well as it normally does, in 2017

9:58	Jeff Sullivan: That is, when comparing BaseRuns record against actual record

9:58	Jeff Sullivan: We might see some increasing deviation over time, I don’t know, but I’m waiting for evidence

9:58	ssf: If Texas is as locked in to competing next year as they claim, is there a realistic path to fielding an average-ish rotation this offseason in the event they don’t acquire Ohtani?

9:59	Jeff Sullivan: Has to begin with figuring out what happened to Hamels. If Hamels is just some glorified No. 3 now, they’re in a heap of trouble

9:59	Sadman: Hi Jeff! Did you get enough sleep?

9:59	Jeff Sullivan: The west coast is wonderful

9:59	Jeff Sullivan: I am so deeply thankful that I didn’t have to write about the game last night. I would still be doing that right now