Jeff Sullivan FanGraphs Chat — 10/15/13

October 15, 2013

9:00	Jeff Sullivan: Let’s see, am I on time?

9:00	Jeff Sullivan: Nailed it!

9:01	Jeff Sullivan: Hey everybody and welcome to baseball chat

9:01	Comment From Sirras One Congrats on being on time Jeff!

9:01	Jeff Sullivan: This is a big day for me

9:02	Comment From Roy Hibbert if you were the dodgers who would u pitch for games 4/5/6/7

9:03	Comment From Guest Roy Hibbert: the answer is always Jeff Suppan

9:03	Jeff Sullivan: I think they have the right idea. Ricky Nolasco is a pretty good pitcher, no matter what happened in September, and we shouldn’t overstate the degree to which he’s a weak link. Don’t want to push everyone else up just because you believe Nolasco is exploitable

9:04	Jeff Sullivan: I mean, the Cardinals can’t be thrilled to be going with Lynn, but that’s what they’ve got today

9:04	Comment From Sirras One Carlos Beltran: Great postseason baseball player, or greatest postseason baseball player?

9:04	Jeff Sullivan: Greatest to date. He should just quit now

9:04	Comment From Alan Jon Jay. Just ugh. Last year he looked like he could be a decent centerfielder. What happened?

9:05	Jeff Sullivan: valid question http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=5227&position=OF#fieldingadvanced

9:05	Jeff Sullivan: Going to be interesting to see what the Cardinals decide to do with Taveras going forward since it’s looking like CF is a problem area

9:05	Jeff Sullivan: I mean, they could always go splurge on Ellsbury but that doesn’t seem like their sort of thing

9:05	Comment From Mike Matheny Why the hell did I play Jon Jay over the right handed, better fielding Shane Robinson last night?

9:06	Jeff Sullivan: I couldn’t tell you ,but I bet you don’t do that again

9:06	Comment From Prich Fantasy Question: Kate Upton or Blake Lively?

9:06	Jeff Sullivan: probably too complicated to be with someone famous

9:06	Jeff Sullivan: just ask Dave’s wife

9:06	Comment From Guest Would you rather have 162 games of Troy Tulowitzki, or 162 games of Mike Trout?

9:07	Jeff Sullivan: Trout, but that’s as close as it gets

9:07	Jeff Sullivan: Ideally I’d have 162 games of Clayton Kershaw

9:07	Comment From Guest Shelby Miller no good?

9:07	Jeff Sullivan: They think he’s gassed and I’ve no choice but to defer to their observation

9:07	Comment From Guest Are the Cardinals boned if they don’t win today?

9:07	Jeff Sullivan: Why would they be? Didn’t they already win two games against Greinke and Kershaw?

9:07

Comment From Bren
I often see people make comments like, “Beltran’s defense won’t hurt the Mets as much because they have a much better CF in Lagares than the Cards do in Jay,” or some-such example. Even though some of this is probably true, isn’t it dangerous to believe Lagares would be able to make up for Beltran’s shortcomings without altering the approach that makes him so great?

9:08

Jeff Sullivan: Yeah, you’d probably see a good center fielder shift over, exposing other areas on the other side. The way to think of it is: there’s some overlap between defenders, but there’s not very much, and Beltran would still have a big giant space to himself. A space in which he’d be a below-average defensive player. The real reason Beltran’s defense wouldn’t hurt the Mets as much is because the Mets won’t be very good

9:08	Comment From Josh So Dodgers lose Kershaw and Greinke starts and Cards lose Wainwright’s. Just how we assumed it would go right? Baseball!!

9:09	Jeff Sullivan: Favorite part of the series so far

9:09	Jeff Sullivan: and none of them have been bad, either

9:09	Comment From Bret Do you see the Tigers moving Rick Porcello this offseason to move Drew Smyly into the rotation? How would Porcello be valued, given that his profile seems to be changing and he continues to underperform his FIP.

9:11

Jeff Sullivan: I wouldn’t at all be surprised to see Porcello get moved given Smyly’s availability and the fact that Porcello is getting more expensive, with two years to go. If there’s anything to the Scherzer talk, they’d do that instead, but Porcello has been the subject of rumors forever and it’s about time for him to pitch in front of a real defense

9:11	Jeff Sullivan: I don’t think he would bring back a big haul, but young starting pitching is young starting pitching and the Tigers would get value on top of losing the salary. Think most teams would understand that he’s had Cabrera and Fielder behind him the last two years

9:12	Comment From Roy Hibbert are you against the idea of a closer?

9:12	Jeff Sullivan: The way they’re used now, yeah

9:12	Jeff Sullivan: I am in favor of the idea of a preferred shutdown reliever

9:12	Comment From Erik Is Detroit’s starting pitching that good or were the first 15 IP of 1 hit ball just one of those weird things that happen in baseball?

9:13	Jeff Sullivan: Well they’re not 1-hit-in-15-innings good. But yeah, Detroit has one of the best starting rotations ever, and they strike everybody out out of habit

9:13	Comment From Paul “Fuhrer” Beeston If you were sitting in the Jays GM seat, which vet’ would you move this off season?

9:13	Jeff Sullivan: No one seems like a good vet to move. I’d try to reload and give it another go in 2014

9:14	Comment From Greg 162 games of Lucas Duda or 162 games of Lucas Duda?

9:14	Jeff Sullivan: In one of those I pretend that Lucas Duda is the name of a board game, and I’ll go with 162 games of that

9:14	Comment From Prich More annoying: Duck fans, or Angels fans?

9:14	Jeff Sullivan: Can’t tell if you mean Oregon Ducks or Anaheim Ducks. But that reminds me of a story

9:15	Jeff Sullivan: I’m a big fan of the Ottawa Senators. In 2007, Ottawa lost the Stanley Cup to Anaheim in five games. They got manhandled. Anyway:

9:16

Jeff Sullivan: A couple years later, some friends and I were in downtown San Diego watching an Ottawa matinee on TV in a hockey bar. It was a glorious, I don’t know, Saturday or Sunday, and we were all wearing Ottawa jerseys. They lost to Montreal, and then I figured I’d show my friends Petco Park by walking a few blocks south

9:18

Jeff Sullivan: Brilliant day. As we approached the fence around the outfield, I heard a voice behind us, 25 or 30 yards. I turned around to see a homeless man in a Ducks jersey, grinning and holding up the logo on the front of his sweater. “Let’s go Ducks,” he said, then he walked away, and I was left to contemplate the reality of what I’d just experienced.

9:19	Jeff Sullivan: I was made fun of by a homeless man for wearing an Ottawa jersey in southern California

9:19	Comment From Sirras One If you had to piece together a season of Tulo, Reyes, and modern-day Jeter, what proportion of the season would you want each to be healthy for?

9:20	Jeff Sullivan: 100% Tulowitzki

9:20	Comment From Andrew Sorry if this is painful, but can you tap into your knowledge as a Mariners fan, when can you tell that a front office has gone wrong, what are the warning signs, is there an identifiable pattern of behavior?

9:20	Jeff Sullivan: When they trade value for Michael Morse and boost him as the savior of a struggling lineup

9:21	Jeff Sullivan: No front office is ever going to be completely up front about what it’s doing or what its philosophies are, but you can usually connect the dots on the sort of players the executives value

9:21	Comment From Sirras One Make a pitcher with one pitcher’s arm, one fastball, one curve, one slider, one change, and one haircut

9:23	Jeff Sullivan: I think the answer I gave last week was Harvey fastball, Wainwright curve, Corbin slider, Strasburg change. Chapman arm, any haircut but Clay Buchholz’s

9:23	Comment From Matt Lots of handwringing in Chicago over next Cubs manager. Makes more sense to focus on how to bridge talent gap til fruits of farm are ready, no? Any big moves this offseason?

9:24	Jeff Sullivan: I’d expect them to be in pretty hard on Ellsbury/Choo and they’ll take a deep long look at Price

9:24	Comment From Ace How much will the Mariners overpay Kendrys Morales?

9:24	Jeff Sullivan: I wouldn’t be surprised to see something like $33 million/3yr

9:24	Comment From Greg Is the idea that a player “is due” prevalent among managers and players? Is there any way to eliminate this egregious logical error?

9:25	Jeff Sullivan: I don’t think it’s actually that prevalent among managers — I think it’s just a thing they say to the media. With players, it seems like it has some psychological value so they don’t get too down on themselves even when they’re slumping

9:25	Comment From TKDC Prince’s homers fell again this year to 25. Last year, they dropped from 38 to 30, but the average distance was about the same. This year, average distance is down more than 10 feet. Would this make you worry more about the chances of a bounce back?

9:26	Jeff Sullivan: I don’t know enough about the significance of dinger distance to be able to confidently interpret that data. What makes me worry about the chances of a bounce back is the 35-point wRC+ drop in two years

9:26	Comment From Guest Won’t Shelby Miller be less gassed after the million days of rest he has gotten? He hasn’t pitched in 2 weeks.

9:27	Jeff Sullivan: If he’s actually that fatigued, that’s not the sort of thing you recover from in a couple weeks. But I do wonder why he’s on the roster if the Cardinals aren’t jazzed about the prospect of using him

9:27	Comment From Paul George Trading for Porcello would be such a Cubs move.

9:27	Jeff Sullivan: Someone could come away from that really pleased

9:27	Comment From Guest The Cardinals entire lineup has hit like pitchers and they’re still up a game

9:28	Jeff Sullivan: because the Dodgers’ entire lineup has hit like pitchers

9:28	Jeff Sullivan: Well, all right, that’s an exaggeration. .573 OPS for the Dodgers, .366 OPS for the Cardinals. But a lot of that Dodgers OPS was bad defense yesterday

9:29	Jeff Sullivan: The Cardinals look like they’re really going to struggle against lefties without Craig

9:29	Comment From TKDC And a similar question, does Trout leading the majors in average distance give you room for optimism that he could turn into a legit regular 40 homer type player? And if so, f#%k (in a good way).

9:30	Jeff Sullivan: I think it’s pretty apparent Trout has even more power potential than he’s shown. He’s going to beat the crap out of so many baseballs as he fills out

9:30	Jeff Sullivan: he’ll also get a lot worse in the field, but they’ll take the trade-off

9:30	Comment From juan pierres mustache Right before Ortiz hit that grand slam, I pictured him homering. At first I thought I was clairvoyant and then I realized I basically always picture batters homering before their at-bats and then mentally congratulate myself for calling it when it does happen

9:30	Jeff Sullivan: I was thinking so hard about Seth Smith homering 🙁

9:31

Comment From Kimball
Going to dup a question I posed to Dave, hoping for a more concrete answer: a year ago, Nick Franklin was ahead of Brad Miller on all the prospect lists; now Miller’s on (most) every list of Mariner bright spots and Franklin’s (mostly) written off. Understandable why preferences would switch, but what are some concrete reasons for giving up on Franklin? Yeah, he didn’t make adjustments so well after his great start, but he did rebound a bit, and he’s so young! It’s not like his ugly K% and replacement level D are news . . .

9:33

Jeff Sullivan: Nobody’s *giving up* on Franklin, but the reality is that he’s a weak defensive player who strikes out too much and who hits for unreliable power given his body. He’s going to have to maximize what he can do to make up for what he can’t really do, and the upside is very limited. Miller, meanwhile, looks like a potentially legitimate shortstop who can hit a bit

9:33	Comment From Steve What if we redefined “clutch” to mean ‘A player who plays to his natural abilities during high pressure/close & late situations’? I don’t believe in clutch, but I believe that the ability to be unaffected by those situations isn’t universal.

9:33	Jeff Sullivan: I think the working theory is that if you can’t really handle the pressure, you’ll get weeded out somewhere before you reach the major leagues

9:34	Jeff Sullivan: What you’ll find is that, over a big enough sample, most everyone reaches their career averages or so in pressure situations

9:34	Comment From Sirras One Would you rather have a ground ball pitcher in front of an infield of Dan Ugglas or a fly ball pitcher in front of an outfield of Lucas Dudas?

9:35	Jeff Sullivan: The first one, then after the game I’d march into my general manager’s office and turn in my letter of resignation

9:35	Comment From Kimball Isn’t it kind of effed up that the ALCS is on broadcast, but the NLCS is only on pay cable?

9:35	Jeff Sullivan: Not to me, because I see them both

9:36	Jeff Sullivan: I have to imagine most people who want to see the NLCS are able to see the NLCS and this is a long-term contract they have with TBS

9:36	Comment From gSon responding to Erik’s question.. the Tigers starting pitching is especially good when they’re facing a better team.. When will the Boston Rabbits at the top of their order put a bunt down?

9:36	Jeff Sullivan: I think it’s still the case there’s only been one bunt attempt at Cabrera, and it was popped up

9:36	Comment From Ace Using the 20 – 80 scale, what would you give Jon Jay’s range?

9:36	Jeff Sullivan: 45 and I’m not a scout and I’ve never used the 20-80 scale

9:37	Comment From dalkowski Which team is closest to its ceiling?

9:37	Jeff Sullivan: I don’t know what this question means but the Pirates were pretty maxed out in 2013

9:38	Comment From tenebrous The Rockies seem to have a solid core. Are they only a good pitcher and some good luck away from contending?

9:39	Jeff Sullivan: Good pitcher, good position player, healthy Tulowitzki

9:39	Comment From CF Logic If a centerfielder is not particularly fast, but still plays center field, then he is a good fielder. It’s science.

9:40	Jeff Sullivan: He probably is, but he looks bad in center relative to our expectations of center fielders

9:40	Comment From Sirras One Wainwright’s curve over Kershaw’s?

9:40	Jeff Sullivan: Wainwright uses his curve a lot more, and it’s highly successful

9:40

Comment From Kimball
Cabrera seems to be sitting pretty solidly in the gulf between the McCarver-types continuing to proclaim him to be the most dangerous player in baseball and the skeptics who say that a great hitter can knock a shot every now and then even when he’s broken. What’s the middle ground? Beane’s “sandbagging” claim?

9:43

Jeff Sullivan: Here’s what we know: Miguel Cabrera is not at 100%. At 100%, Cabrera is one of baseball’s most feared hitters, and even when he doesn’t have his body on his side, he still has all the other talents that you need to be amazing. Same mind, same wrists, same eye. A hurt Cabrera will still be a better hitter than a lot of other hitters, and a hurt Cabrera is by no means incapable of going deep, since even Munenori Kawasaki went deep. Cabrera should be feared right now, but he should be less feared than usual. He’s get-outtable

9:43	Comment From Winston Do you think the Tigers have the character to bounce back after the tough loss?

9:43	Jeff Sullivan: I assume this is tongue in cheek

9:45	Comment From Winston Who do you think has the better bullpen: Cards or Dodgers?

9:45	Jeff Sullivan: I think the Cardinals have a little more depth, but there’s not a huge difference between the two. Rosenthal and Jansen are both so good

9:45	Comment From Gila Monster With a healthy Morrow,Dickey, and Burhle, do the Jays resign J.J. or do they look elsewhere for a FA pitcher?

9:46	Jeff Sullivan: Johnson will probably get a better opportunity somewhere else

9:46	Comment From Guest Bigger mistake: Mariners taking Clement over Tulo, or Rockies taking Reynolds over Longoria?

9:47	Jeff Sullivan: Were they mistakes, or were they just unfortunate rolls of the dice?

9:47	Jeff Sullivan: WE CAN NEVER KNOW THE ANSWER

9:47	Jeff Sullivan: and the answer is Rockies

9:47	Comment From That One Guy FWIW, Prince Fielder is going through a divorce this year. I think that as fans and analytical people, we can overlook the importance of off-field factors. No big leaguer is a robot, not even Mike Trout.

9:49

Jeff Sullivan: I think most people know about the divorce, and everybody understands that players aren’t robots, but it’s not like there isn’t legitimate reason to be concerned with Fielder’s future based on other factors. Just as we can’t say it’s all unrelated to the divorce, we can’t say it’s all closely related to the divorce

9:50	Comment From Gila Monster Are you suprised umps don’t use stop watches to demean pitchers for pitching too slow? I mean we all know umps loves to make it the ump show too.

9:50	Jeff Sullivan: Umpires can count

9:50	Comment From Kimball Could Puig have hit an IPHR last night if he hadn’t celebrated? It took him longer to get to first than from first to third.

9:50	Jeff Sullivan: No, I don’t think so, the showboating didn’t cost him 3-4 seconds

9:50	Jeff Sullivan: I did think about it, though. He got into third mighty easily

9:50	Comment From Andrew Is there any data on how batted ball distance ages?

9:51	Jeff Sullivan: Not data that’s good enough

9:51	Comment From Larry Bird Is Joe Kelly a mid-rotation starter or a decent relief pitcher for the future Cardinals? What is his ceiling?

9:51	Jeff Sullivan: Right now he’s a fringe #5, and he could be a 4 with a little more secondary-pitch development. Already has the parts to be a good long reliever

9:51	Comment From RSquared Farrell will sit Nava again because of Gomes’ intangibles. Ross over Salty though DET has no running game. What’s up with that? Sit two better hitters when offense has struggled?

9:52	Jeff Sullivan: Well, I like David Ross a lot just because of his pitch-framing ability, so he has a ton of defensive value

9:52	Jeff Sullivan: I don’t quite understand the Nava/Gomes thing, but let’s not make too much of the difference in one game between Daniel Nava and Jonny Gomes

9:53	Comment From dalkowski Who ends up with highest peak wrc+ of harper/trout/puig? If you have any desire for ridiculous prognostications…

9:53	Jeff Sullivan: Trout, around 190-200

9:54	Comment From TKDC With Beltran’s comments about Puig, can we get over the false narrative that this is purely an American/Latino thing?

9:54	Jeff Sullivan: I haven’t seen Beltran’s comments yet, but I imagine Puig irritates everybody that he plays against, not just white Americans

9:55	Jeff Sullivan: And that’s silly because Puig is awesome

9:55	Comment From EG Jeff, for what it’s worth, I just declare that Seth Smith did homer, and the A’s went on and won the world series. It’s remarkably effective, emotionally.

9:55	Jeff Sullivan: Joaquin Benoit’s mistake before Joaquin Benoit’s mistake

9:55	Comment From Forsyth David Ortiz and “clutch hitting” – My theory is that he’s very good at staying even keeled, and feasts on mistakes that pitchers make due to folding under the pressure. I very much believe in choking, but not in some kind of added talent. Thoughts on the theory?

9:56	Jeff Sullivan: According to our splits, David Ortiz has a career 138 wRC+, and a career 128 wRC+ in high-leverage situations, in the regular season

9:57

Jeff Sullivan: I do think there’s an impression of Ortiz in pitchers’ heads now, I think people see him as this incredible clutch monster in the playoffs, but I doubt that has an actual effect, aside from maybe trying to pitch around him a little more. Pitchers are very confident individuals, as they ought to be

9:58	Comment From J6takish Look at Jeters career post season line vs his career regular season. It’s almost a mirror image. Everybody remembers the Mr November homerun, nobody remembers him batting 200 that whole postseason

9:58	Jeff Sullivan: Almost identical numbers, against much tougher average competition

9:58

Comment From Catoblepas
Bunting is hard — I think a lot of people are like “ugh why don’t they just bunt at Cabrera” but it definitely takes some practice beforehand. That being said, he’s been gimpy for a while, so they’ve had time to practice, but it’s not something you can totally just decide to do the night before.

9:58	Jeff Sullivan: Right. I think teams should absolutely prepare by practicing bunting a lot

9:59	Jeff Sullivan: I mean, it’s right there for the taking

9:59	Comment From Larry Bird What do you think of all these mid-inning manager interviews?

9:59	Jeff Sullivan: I miss Joe Maddon