Jeff Sullivan FanGraphs Chat — 10/22/13
| 9:00 |
: All right, what do we have today?
|
| 9:00 |
: A baseball chat!
|
| 9:01 |
: With no baseball scheduled!
|
| 9:01 |
: To answer questions left in the comments for some reason:
|
| 9:02 |
: Zduriencik hires the next manager, mostly
|
| 9:02 |
: No Carson
|
| 9:02 |
: Red Sox
|
| 9:02 |
Who wins? |
| 9:02 |
: See above
|
| 9:03 |
why is joe kelly in the rotation |
| 9:03 |
: They’re low on options and they seem pretty much ultra convinced that Miller is out of gas
|
| 9:03 |
: Also, Kelly had that low season ERA
|
| 9:03 |
: And it’s not like he’s been *dreadful* in the playoffs, he’s just been himself. Get Kozma behind him
|
| 9:04 |
: Oh boy, I notice we have a new Tim Lincecum post/thread on the FG front page
|
| 9:04 |
: these always go super well
|
| 9:04 |
Any advice on what to be doing tomorrow at 2007 hours? I don’t think there’s a game on. |
| 9:04 |
: Why, you’re incorrect! There IS a game on!
|
| 9:04 |
: For four hours!
|
| 9:06 |
Brandon Phillips for Mark Buehrle… who hangs up? |
| 9:07 |
: So we’ve got $50 million/4 years against $37 million/2 years
|
| 9:07 |
: on that basis alone I figure the Jays don’t go for it, but it’s closer than it seems
|
| 9:08 |
Should the Pirates trade Liriano? Will any team make an offer for him? |
| 9:08 |
: He’s too important to that team’s hopes for 2014, and his perceived value in the market is probably still below where Pittsburgh would put it
|
| 9:08 |
: Contending teams generally don’t trade potential aces on affordable salaries
|
| 9:09 |
Woo ERA! He needs to do better in staring matches to have a chance against the Sox. |
| 9:09 |
: Joe Kelly is a perfectly adequate starting pitcher who should not be left out there for very long
|
| 9:10 |
: Going to help that he and Lynn should start under NL rules instead of AL rules
|
| 9:11 |
: Not going to help that Kelly is probably lined up for a Game 7 start
|
| 9:11 |
Where does Leyland landing? |
| 9:11 |
: “Leyland said he will accept another position with the organization. That role is yet to be determined.”
|
| 9:14 |
Nats will be paying approx more than $20 million for 3 relievers next year: Soriano ($11 MM), Clippard ($4+ MM), and Storen ($2.5+ MM). Do you think it is an issue? How would you address it? |
| 9:16 |
: I don’t think it’s an issue — it’s really just overpaying Soriano, and there’s not a lot that can be done with that. No one’s going to want to take him at his salary without giving up a similar bad salary
|
| 9:16 |
: The bigger concern is Soriano’s vesting 2015 option for $14 million
|
| 9:16 |
: he’d have to finish 62 games this season. Thankfully for the Nationals, that seems pretty unlikely
|
| 9:17 |
Jhonny Peralta is not in the Top 47 FA list. |
| 9:17 |
: Nor is Joaquin Benoit
|
| 9:17 |
Is Allen Craig going to play? How do the injury experts think his injury will affect him if he does? |
| 9:18 |
: It would appear that Craig is going to be available to DH and come off the bench. Observers have said that he looks more or less like himself in the box, so the biggest issues will be with parts of his game he won’t be playing over the next week and a half
|
| 9:18 |
: He ought to be pretty helpful for a Cardinals team that doesn’t hit lefties
|
| 9:19 |
Timmie to Colorado or Seattle.. where his off field recreative efforts will be legal.. Does this make sense? |
| 9:19 |
: Still not allowed by MLB so, no, of course not
|
| 9:19 |
: But Seattle does make sense as a destination for reasons other than pot
|
| 9:20 |
Fair to say Kelly is a solid #5 starter, just not a playoff starter? |
| 9:20 |
: Might even be a #4. As things work out, #5 pitchers tend to suck
|
| 9:20 |
: But he’s the worst starter left
|
| 9:21 |
Homer Bailey a Red next year? |
| 9:21 |
: Right now I lean slightly to yes, but it’s only slight, and he’s going to be all over the trade rumors for a month or two
|
| 9:24 |
Planning a vacation this winter, where/who would you recommend seeing play some Winterball? |
| 9:24 |
: Why not hop around the Caribbean and see winter ball in multiple spots!
|
| 9:24 |
: Nowhere better to be in winter than the Caribbean!
|
| 9:24 |
: Then submit a community blog post about the environment and your experiences
|
| 9:24 |
: with baseball
|
| 9:25 |
What is Cardinals rotation next season? Wacha is definitely in, right? |
| 9:25 |
: Wacha, absolutely, no argument otherwise
|
| 9:26 |
: Wainwright/Wacha/Miller/Garcia/battle with guys like Kelly and Lynn and a few other contenders
|
| 9:27 |
: Sorry for proceeding a little slowly but I’m also trying to eat right now and apparently I just suck at multitasking
|
| 9:27 |
I’m not incorrect, I just refuse to acknowledge the existence of clubs not called the Royals in Missouri or Massachusetts. |
| 9:27 |
: Like they don’t even exist at all?
|
| 9:27 |
: Who…won?
|
| 9:27 |
I think watching Buchholz pitch and Boston batters step out and readjust everything imaginable after every pitch is the most painful baseball activity. I really wish someone would start enforcing the timing rules. It’s unbearable. |
| 9:28 |
: I don’t know how many times this has to be brought up as a topic before someone actually starts doing something about the timing rules. Granted, they’re poorly understood by the general public, and the Red Sox aren’t the only offenders, but they’re playing almost unwatchable baseball a lot of the time on a national stage and people notice.
|
| 9:29 |
: It doesn’t help that FOX has extended commercial breaks and the Red Sox batters are good. Good batters make everything longer too. Can’t help that.
|
| 9:29 |
I liked your parting “best of the worst”.. but no playoff edition? |
| 9:29 |
: It’s possible; I left that door open
|
| 9:29 |
: Also, wildest swings will be coming later today
|
| 9:29 |
: Too much work to do them both yesterday
|
| 9:29 |
Do you appreciate the oddity that you wrote about Jake Peavy in the playoffs, bases loaded, 3-0 count, and that Jake Peavy is the only pitcher to allow a grand slam on 3-0 in the playoffs? |
| 9:30 |
: I thought you refused to acknowledge the existence of Peavy’s team
|
| 9:30 |
: That is a pretty neat stat!
|
| 9:30 |
Was there anything in the Free Agent crowdsourcing results that really surprised you? Anything where you think the collective wisdom may be way off? |
| 9:31 |
: To be honest I haven’t read through the whole thing yet. I scrolled through my phone when I woke up but I’m on the west coast and I don’t get a lot of reading done before these chats
|
| 9:31 |
What did you think of FanGraphs audio today? Relatedly, what are your favorite baseball podcasts or tv shows? |
| 9:31 |
: Man, people think I’m all about FanGraphs before nine in the morning
|
| 9:31 |
: I don’t listen to baseball podcasts
|
| 9:31 |
: I don’t listen to podcasts, actually. Maybe should, but don’t
|
| 9:32 |
: Don’t even conduct them anymore, turns out!
|
| 9:32 |
do you guys go to the MIT sports analytics conference? |
| 9:32 |
: Some people do. Dave does
|
| 9:32 |
Seattle for Portland, who hangs up first, Washington or Oregon? |
| 9:32 |
: Both of them simultaneously
|
| 9:32 |
Any thoughts on Kershaw reportedly turning down a 300MM extension? |
| 9:32 |
: There are a lot of considerations and Kershaw understandably didn’t want to make that commitment during the season
|
| 9:33 |
: They’ll revisit and he’ll get paid impossible dollars in the next few months
|
| 9:33 |
does Josh Johnson return to the Jays.. or does he revitalize his career in: San Diego, Seattle or some other pitchers park? |
| 9:33 |
: I think he goes elsewhere for a year, even though the Jays have the most complete medical information
|
| 9:33 |
Better chance at starting for the M’s in 2014: Danny Hultzen or Justin Masterson? |
| 9:33 |
: Hultzen, on account of he is a Mariner already
|
| 9:33 |
Is Kelly a good third pitcher, or are we realistically looking at probably a four or five starter? |
| 9:34 |
: four/five
|
| 9:34 |
I’m more pessimistic about the Pirates chances than most in 2014, if any other team highly values Burnett/Wandy/Liriano, they should trade them and tool up for a run from 2015 onward. |
| 9:34 |
: Burnett’s done and maybe retiring
|
| 9:35 |
: Not that this should be the main consideration but I don’t think the Pirates ought to try to sell another reloading season right after finally making the playoffs
|
| 9:35 |
: They’re close enough for 2014 to be worth a shot and people will appreciate it. Liriano could be of greater value than what he could bring back in a move
|
| 9:35 |
How much of the Cardinals pitching success is the pitchers and how much is Molina? |
| 9:36 |
: That’s the hard thing, right? It’s impossible to know the answer. Obviously it’s not like all the pitchers are terrible — and they’re the ones responsible for throwing the pitches — so you figure it’s something like 80/20 or 90/10 or whatever. But we can’t know, which makes it so fascinating
|
| 9:36 |
Wouldnt it make more sense for the M’s to sign 3 guys to fill needs instead of overpay for Ellsbury? |
| 9:37 |
: Kind of depends on the guys, right? And at some point the Mariners need actual good players instead of positional adequacy
|
| 9:37 |
Have any studies been done on how pitchers fare with short rest, or is there too little data? |
| 9:37 |
: What we have a pretty good understanding of is that pitchers on short rest are less effective. What we don’t understand so well are carryover effects, or which guys will and will not be affected
|
| 9:38 |
: For example, Brandon McCarthy has argued the real hazard is in the starts *after* the short rest. Don’t think that’s been properly examined
|
| 9:38 |
Why did Leyland leave the Tigers? |
| 9:38 |
: Over it, and sensed the Tigers needed a change
|
| 9:39 |
: Currently watching the neighbor across the way wash his cat in a sink
|
| 9:39 |
: And I think he just noticed me watching him
|
| 9:39 |
Smart front offices hire dumb tactical managers. Do tactics not matter that much? Is the other stuff managers do more important? Do FOs try to hire smart managers, but fail (because it’s hard, for some reason)? |
| 9:40 |
: The significance of strategy is exaggerated by fans because they want things to feel important and strategy is the only area where we can actually evaluate a guy in charge. The rest of the stuff — the leader-of-men stuff — is of far greater importance, and that’s where we can’t have a clue.
|
| 9:40 |
: There’s also the reality that there aren’t going to be a lot of brilliant managerial candidates yet, because most of them are older former players and, yeah
|
| 9:41 |
: In time, we’ll see shifts. Front offices will be on more similar wavelengths with guys in the dugout
|
| 9:41 |
What do you think of the Alex Guerrero signing? |
| 9:42 |
: He is probably going to be okay and people will not be very excited after the first month and a half or so
|
| 9:42 |
: Then he’ll be just another guy
|
| 9:42 |
Do you think the Mariners go in big for Lincecum? |
| 9:42 |
: You are submitting an awful lot of questions
|
| 9:42 |
: The Mariners are going to make a significant play. Can’t predict what the rest of the market will do, but Seattle has a good shot here
|
| 9:42 |
In what shape are the Orioles really in financially? Do they have the money to be big market and are cheap, or are they really a mid-market team? |
| 9:43 |
: Probably healthiest to think of them as a mid-market team
|
| 9:43 |
: even if they shouldn’t be that — even if they should be more than that — they’re not going to be more than that, so then it becomes a matter of preserving your own sanity
|
| 9:44 |
: swear to god every other question/comment in the queue is Danny Knobgobbler
|
| 9:45 |
: good heavens dude
|
| 9:45 |
I hate all of the talk of Ellsbury going elsewhere while he’s still playing, but is there any chance he stays in Boston? |
| 9:45 |
: Well, only two fan bases really still care about this season. Everyone else is thinking about what’s going to happen next
|
| 9:45 |
: And free agency/player movement is exciting!
|
| 9:46 |
: Very slim chance Ellsbury returns. There’s going to be an opportunity for him to make a hell of a lot of money, and the Sox figure they have the depth to survive
|
| 9:46 |
Question about the qualifying offer and the CBA: If a club extends the QO in good faith, and the player accepts it in good faith, can the club then trade the player without surrendering a draft pick? |
| 9:46 |
: That is…I’m going to need a minute.
|
| 9:51 |
: Well that was fruitless
|
| 9:51 |
: and probably really annoying for you guys!
|
| 9:51 |
: I wasn’t able to find anything in the CBA but I also didn’t read through the entire CBA so I easily could’ve missed something. Crowdsource for a link!
|
| 9:51 |
Are the Mariners sticking with Smoak at 1B, or are they looking for an upgrade? Would they have interest in the Padres’ Alonso? He has under-performed to date, but has shown a solid glove, and is only two years removed from being a top 50 prospect. Plus, he is still cheap. |
| 9:52 |
: The Mariners are presumably sticking with Smoak, and even if they weren’t, Alonso wouldn’t do anything for them. He ends up, overall, being a similar sort of player
|
| 9:53 |
: Former top prospect who just isn’t actually valuable. First-base prospects are the worst.
|
| 9:53 |
are you at all nervous as to what a desperate GM in Jack Z might do to the future of the organization this winter? |
| 9:53 |
: I wouldn’t say I’m nervous, but that’s mostly because I’ve emotionally uninvolved myself. It could be an explosive offseason.
|
| 9:53 |
As a Phillies fan, how long am I going to have to wait for another playoff appearance? |
| 9:53 |
: …4…years?
|
| 9:53 |
Do the Reds still have the pieces to be a playoff team, or is the Hamilton-for-Choo swap in the lineup enough to derail the whole thing? |
| 9:54 |
: Pretty much no player-for-player swap could cripple a team on its own and while the Reds will be getting worse, the same ought to go for the Pirates. Plenty of stuff left for the Reds to put together a run in 2014
|
| 9:55 |
: The window is probably closing, but one can still feel a draft
|
| 9:55 |
Are there any volcano’s in the Caribbean? |
| 9:55 |
: Are there ever!
|
| 9:55 |
: Whole mess of them!
|
| 9:56 |
Does Lynn or Kelly get the boot? Maybe both for Carlos Martinez? |
| 9:56 |
: I figure it’ll be a big ol spring-training competition, with Martinez representing the future, if not the immediate present
|
| 9:56 |
I will miss the worst pitches and worst swings. 🙁 |
| 9:56 |
: I will not miss the amount of work they require!
|
| 9:57 |
: I’ll need to make some adjustments for 2014 so it’s not all just repeats of the same stuff
|
| 9:57 |
Cardinals vs. Red Sox better lineup, starting pitcher and bullpen |
| 9:57 |
: Red Sox, Red Sox, push
|
| 9:57 |
The Tigers can’t trade Scherzer, right? I mean I get the argument, but they’re too close to winning it all… right? |
| 9:58 |
: Who’s to say they don’t get good talent back? Who’s to say Smyly isn’t ready to jump back into the rotation and succeed?
|
| 9:58 |
Red Sox games take forever, will MLB step in eventually and try to quicken up the pace? |
| 9:58 |
: They’ll just talk about it instead but no reason to believe they’ll make changes now after this has been an issue for years
|
| 9:58 |
Bigger play…Jose Iglesias error or Stepehn Drew divind stop on Miggy’s ball up the middle? |
| 9:59 |
: I’m going to go with Iglesias, just because at that point the Tigers needed to create maximum outs. They already had the lead
|
| 9:59 |
cardinals fans seem surprised by the amount of cardinals hate out there. should they embrace it like they yankees? |
| 9:59 |
: They shouldn’t give a hoot about it. Who cares what other baseball fans think, honestly?
|
| 10:00 |
: Whether or not your neighbor is rooting for your team doesn’t have any effect on your own championship-viewing experience
|
| 10:00 |
which player named Young would you rather have next year: Michael or Delmon? |
| 10:00 |
: Delmon
|
| 10:01 |
: I’m saddened to learn he doesn’t have an official Baseball-Reference nickname
|
| 10:01 |
Any chances Lincecum resigns? |
| 10:01 |
: slim
|
| 10:01 |
What are the odds that Carson Cistulli is still writing here next year? |
| 10:01 |
: Very high!
|
| 10:01 |
Offseason post idea: The wildest pitches of the pitch fx era… |
| 10:02 |
: Unfortunately the MLB.tv archives don’t extend back to 2008
|
| 10:02 |
300mm is a crazy number though |
| 10:02 |
: I think the idea was that Kershaw was basically being offered a lifetime contract
|
| 10:03 |
What did you think of the White Sox signing of Jose Abreu? |
| 10:03 |
How good is Verlander? Could he be better than Kershaw next year? |
| 10:03 |
: Very! Yes but he won’t be!
|
| 10:04 |
What is the most interesting thing that the public doesn’t know about Carson Cistulli? |
| 10:04 |
: Does the public know about the French stalker?
|
| 10:04 |
Would a lifetime contract ala Kershaw make sense from Angels standpoint for Trout? |
| 10:04 |
: it would make more sense than it would for Kershaw
|
| 10:05 |
Kendry Morales won’t actually get offered the qualifying offer will he? He’s terrible. |
| 10:05 |
: Yes he will and no he’s not
|
| 10:05 |
I’ve read rumors on this here internet that the Mariners plan to extend to Mr. Morales a qualifying offer and that he plans to refuse the offer. I’m curious, if the readership were polled as to which party is making the more foolhardy move, what the results might be. |
| 10:06 |
If you had a special assignment to cover one season of winterball in the Caribbean, but you had to pick one island, which one would it be? |
| 10:07 |
: Probably the DR, but I haven’t been anywhere in the Caribbean yet so I can’t really answer that with a lot of substance. I’ll be going in a month, though
|
| 10:07 |
: Don’t know if there’s going to be baseball in Belize or Guatemala
|
| 10:07 |
Who will be live blogging the World Series? |
| 10:07 |
: Dave and I will handle a lot of it; other people will handle the two weekend games
|
| 10:07 |
: Dave and I will co-blog Game 1
|
| 10:07 |
By “Burnett is done” do you mean he can’t pitch anymore, or more just that he doesn’t seem to have much desire to continue? Because he’s been quite good since leaving Yankee Stadium and the AL East. |
| 10:08 |
: I meant that his contract is up with the Pirates, so he couldn’t be traded
|
| 10:08 |
What baseball blogs or image boards do you frequent? Ever visit /sp/? |
| 10:08 |
: What is an image board?
|
| 10:08 |
Uehara– fleetingly good or potentially actually good? |
| 10:08 |
: He’s awesome. Been awesome for a while
|
| 10:09 |
: He’s probably at his performance peak right now, and he’s 38, but what he’s doing isn’t altogether dissimilar to what he’s done
|
| 10:09 |
: As a reliever, over four years: 284 strikeouts, 23 unintentional walks, 219.1 innings
|
| 10:09 |
Who wins game one and why? |
| 10:10 |
: Red Sox; better
|
| 10:10 |
How important are Dave Cameron and Carson Cistulli to the sabermetric movement? |
| 10:10 |
: I like to think of Dave as a science writer, not so much performing analysis as explaining analysis to a bigger community. Carson is cute
|
| 10:11 |
Carson Cistulli calls himself “one of America’s hottest young writers”. Do you agree? |
| 10:11 |
: He’s not young and he’s not in America
|
| 10:12 |
What was your biggest surprise these playoffs? |
| 10:12 |
: Tigers putting up the fight they did with a badly injured Cabrera and a terrible Fielder
|
| 10:12 |
Doesn’t Geoff Baker still have to go on your podcast? I suppose he’ll have to write a guest article on USSM to make up for it. |
| 10:12 |
: oh crap you’re right
|
| 10:13 |
What is the future of sabermetrics? |
| 10:13 |
: Defense and pitch-sequencing?
|
| 10:13 |
: Drilling down into details, perhaps. Way fewer attempted sweeping conclusions.
|
| 10:13 |
Can the Blue Jays compete for a playoff spot next year? |
| 10:13 |
: Sure can!
|
| 10:14 |
: And I think they’ll try. They’ll reload this winter, not rebuild
|
| 10:14 |
Koji Uehara signing – great or very great? |
| 10:14 |
: Hopefully this allows people to look back more favorably on his previous track record. He’s so underrated
|
| 10:14 |
Stephen Drew stop up the middle against Miggy the biggest play from Game 6 that no one talked much about? |
| 10:15 |
: Depends. Does Drew still get to the ball, but knock it down and not get the out? Does Iglesias stay at third on that?
|
| 10:16 |
: There are so many options. The role of the Monster. Fielder’s godawful, unforgivable baserunning. Veras throwing a curveball when apparently every last person in the ballpark knew a curveball was coming
|
| 10:16 |
: If everyone — and I mean everyone — anticipated the curve, how do you call for the curve? How do you not at least waste a fastball somewhere?
|
| 10:16 |
Who’s a better keeper for my final slot, Alex Cobb or Carlos Santana? |
| 10:16 |
: Santana given catcher eligibility?
|
| 10:16 |
is it just me or is Choo a better buy than Ellsbury anyway? |
| 10:17 |
: Might work out that way contract-wise, but in terms of on-field value, I think I’d sooner have Ellsbury. A year younger and he can actually field on the field
|
| 10:17 |
Hi Jeff, today’s my birthday, and I’m a Dodger fan. Can you say something mean about the Giants for me? |
| 10:18 |
: Buster Posey put up a .643 OPS in the second half
|
| 10:19 |
Best player on either team still playing? Pitcher? |
| 10:19 |
: Yadi and Wainwright
|
| 10:20 |
Who plays SS for the Cardinals next year? |
| 10:20 |
: Someone not currently in the organization. Drew?
|
| 10:22 |
If the Cubs’negotiations with Shark stall and they look to move him, what type of return could they expect? With 2 yrs of cost control left, I think he’d be pretty appealing to a wide range of clubs. |
| 10:22 |
: Off the top of my head, I could see one top-five prospect and one 6-10 prospect
|
| 10:23 |
Should the Sox Consider starting Doubront over Peavy in this series, based on how the Cards have handled Lefties all year |
| 10:23 |
: Nah — Doubront’s hardly pitched lately, and Peavy’s a lot better
|
| 10:24 |
: It’s close, but I think you need better than a Felix Doubront to go away from a Jake Peavy in the World Series
|
| 10:24 |
Is Bronson Arroyo (Saturn Balls) one of those pitchers that is better than their fWAR suggests? |
| 10:25 |
: five seasons in a row now he’s been at least 1.2 wins better by RA9 than by FIP
|
| 10:25 |
: Reason enough for me to figure he has something going on. Looks like a bit of BABIP suppression, maybe the result of his deception/arm-angle variety
|
| 10:25 |
You should do a chat where you answer every question with a song. |
| 10:26 |
: I am more open to the idea than I imagine the participants would be
|
| 10:26 |
How good will Shelby Miller be next year? |
| 10:26 |
: Very similarly good
|
| 10:26 |
Does Kazmir resign? |
| 10:27 |
: I think he ends up elsewhere for two years and about $18-20 million
|
| 10:28 |
Do the playoff odds calculations include handedness splits? |
| 10:28 |
: Don’t believe so, no
|
| 10:28 |
Which Cardinal pitcher do you think is least well-suited to pitch in Fenway? |
| 10:28 |
: Kelly, because he’d be facing a DH and then he could be overexposed
|
| 10:28 |
People are forgetting/ignoring that the reports of 300M include some huge donation to Kershaw’s charity. Not sure the legality of everything but you’d have to think there is a huge tax writeoff from that. |
| 10:29 |
: I’ll leave that detail to people who better understand those details
|
| 10:29 |
What do you think about Keith Laws analysis? Is he the best baseball writer going? |
| 10:29 |
What do you think of Jonah Keri’s writing at Grantland? |
| 10:29 |
Is Dave Cameron this generation’s Rob Neyer? |
| 10:29 |
Who is more invaluable to FanGraphs: Dave Cameron or Carson Cistulli? |
| 10:29 |
Will Keith Law ever write for FanGraphs? |
| 10:29 |
Would Juan Uribe be worth the QA? |
| 10:29 |
: no
|
| 10:29 |
Have you done or seen any work on the umps in the WS and what idiosyncracies they have? |
| 10:30 |
: I believe Jeff Zimmerman will be writing something about the WS umpire strike zones
|
| 10:30 |
: Don’t know how to even begin approaching the rest of their strengths and weaknesses, if they exist
|
| 10:30 |
Any ‘get away from society and the internet’ trips planned in the near future? |
| 10:30 |
: week and a half in November, returning on Thanksgiving, getting away before the offseason really picks up. Seems like the ideal time for baseball writer travel
|
| 10:30 |
Am I crazy or could Phil Hughes actually be a good buy low candidate? |
| 10:31 |
: Not crazy! His problem is dingers and New York is awful for that!
|
| 10:31 |
Do you think James Loney is worth the QA? |
| 10:31 |
: no
|
| 10:31 |
Are the M’s going all in on Tanaka? |
| 10:31 |
: no
|
| 10:31 |
on a 1 to 10 scale how awful is the Fielder contract looking? |
| 10:32 |
: 8? Could be convinced about 9.
|
| 10:32 |
How do you stay in touch with other writers at FanGraphs? |
| 10:32 |
: Email and weekly conference calls that go too long for pretty much no reason
|
| 10:32 |
: and I’ll text with Dave
|
| 10:33 |
What was your vote for the poll q? |
| 10:33 |
: turn down`
|
| 10:33 |
Have you ever noticed that Grant Balfour’s last name sounds like ‘ball four’? It’s funny because he is a pitcher, you see. |
| 10:33 |
: And he’s set up by a Doolittle
|
| 10:33 |
What inspires you to write about baseball? |
| 10:34 |
: The constant search for new things to say and observe about a game that’s existed for more than 100 years
|
| 10:34 |
: The game is hardly changing. What we know about the game changes by the day. It’s practically a science, so this allows me to sate my scientific curiosities without going to grad school.
|
| 10:35 |
Do you think when the sabermetric movement has passed that FanGraphs legacy will rival that of BP or The Book? |
| 10:35 |
: I think at that point I’m not going to worry too much about the legacies because I’m going to be primarily worried about getting a job
|
| 10:35 |
Uehara has always been this good. The biggest difference for him this year was health. |
| 10:35 |
: and avoiding some dingers
|
| 10:35 |
Did you get a whiff of Jim Bowden’s piece on the WS today? Could you guys please systematically tear it apart like mechanically separated chicken? There are too many errors to list here… |
| 10:36 |
: Why would I read anything that Jim Bowden writes?
|
| 10:36 |
: Dave and I have talked about this before privately but FG doesn’t exist to tear down other peoples’ ideas. So while sometimes it would be fun, we’re supposed to remain above that.
|
| 10:36 |
Will Prince Fielder be worth his contract next year? |
| 10:36 |
: no
|
| 10:36 |
Does Brandon McCarthy have a career in sabermetrics after his playing days? |
| 10:37 |
: Not sabermetrics, but possibly writing/broadcasting if he wants
|
| 10:37 |
: Could be a studio analyst if that doesn’t feel beneath him
|
| 10:37 |
If you were given an offer to write for Grantland/ESPN for more money (but watered down pieces) would you take it? |
| 10:37 |
: Obviously it kind of depends on the specific amount of money, but, no
|
| 10:38 |
Xander Bogaerts’s name had been kicked around the internet as a possible centerpiece to a Stanton trade. Is Bogaerts’s perceived value now too high for that to make sense (if it ever did make sense)? |
| 10:38 |
: I just can’t see him getting moved. He’s going to be crazy good, real soon.
|
| 10:38 |
Would Farrell ever bring, say, Napoli in to pinch hit for Ortiz against a LH pitcher in a late-inning high-leverage situation? |
| 10:38 |
: Nope
|
| 10:38 |
I feel like everyone is applauding the Sox Uehara signing for the wrong reasons. Yeah, he’s awesome, but it was a nice pickup for depth reasons — not the ‘diamond-in-the-rough’ reasons. The Sox signed Hanrahan, too…and gave Tazawa and Bailey the shot before Uehara. |
| 10:39 |
: Doesn’t mean we can’t see it as an incredible value now in retrospect
|
| 10:39 |
: and at least they identified the right depth to acquire
|
| 10:39 |
I kind of like the idea of signing Paul Maholm. Am I nuts? |
| 10:40 |
: Not nuts, just peculiar
|
| 10:40 |
Is this a great offseason to get a high upside pitcher for cheap? One or more of Halladay, Johnson, Lincecum, Haren, Jiminez could end up being an elite pitcher that doesn’t cost much? |
| 10:40 |
: But the state of the market could drive up their prices. If most of what’s available are risky high-upside types…
|
| 10:41 |
: Also I don’t think there’s a single elite pitcher in there these days
|
| 10:41 |
Are the Angels terrible again next year? |
| 10:41 |
: They weren’t terrible this year
|
| 10:41 |
: Next year they should contend for a wild-card spot
|
| 10:42 |
One of the few things John Kruk has said that I agree with was something like “hell, if someone wants to pay me $100 million dollars, I don’t care what time of year it is, I have my agent work out the deal and sign my name.” |
| 10:42 |
: well John Kruk never made more than $2.5 million in a single season
|
| 10:42 |
How much have writers like MGL or Tango Tiger influenced you? |
| 10:43 |
: Probably quite a bit subconsciously and, additionally, indirectly
|
| 10:43 |
Do you find what Carson Cistulli, Navin Vaswani & co. do at NotGraphs interesting or just silly? |
| 10:43 |
: sometimes worthwhile, sometimes skippable, everything is up to the opinion of the beholder
|
| 10:43 |
Is Corey Hart a realistic target for Indians? Decent bat, can play OF, 1B, DH |
| 10:43 |
: yeah, he’s on their list
|
| 10:43 |
Could you do a chat where you answer every question with a question? |
| 10:44 |
: probably?
|
| 10:44 |
MLB needs a shot clock for at bats. Like a real freaking timer. This is not a question. |
| 10:44 |
: I do want to point one thing out about the rules:
|
| 10:45 |
: “When the bases are unoccupied, the pitcher shall deliver the ball to the batter within 12 seconds after he receives the ball. Each time the pitcher delays the game by violating this rule, the umpire shall call ?Ball.? The 12-second timing starts when the pitcher is in possession of the ball and the batter is in the box, alert to the pitcher. The timing stops when the pitcher releases the ball.”
|
| 10:45 |
: People forget about the bases-unoccupied part, and they forget about the batter-in-the-box part
|
| 10:45 |
: Now, obviously, there should be some new rules or some amended rules. But as things stand, there are fewer violations than people think
|
| 10:45 |
wait, how was it that everyone was anticipating the curve vs Victorino? why would a curve ball necessarily follow two curve balls? |
| 10:46 |
: Afraid to throw a two-seamer with Victorino standing so close, Veras has a good curve and it’s a putaway pitch. But from everything I”ve read, the Red Sox knew it was coming. Victorino even went into the cage to work on hitting curveballs immediately before the PA
|
| 10:46 |
: It was, apparently, super predictable
|
| 10:48 |
Mujika looked good this year, how does he show up as a 0 WAR? |
| 10:48 |
: second-half slump, suppressed BABIP, high bar for relief pitchers
|
| 10:48 |
Bartolo Colon has been a great pitcher for a couple of years now. Why isn’t he talked about as one? |
| 10:48 |
: At the end of the day people can’t look past his body. Same reason he’s going to be underpaid again this winter
|
| 10:48 |
: He also allows a lot of contact and had that whole PED suspension
|
| 10:49 |
Do you think Ortiz should be starting in NL-rules games? |
| 10:50 |
: In games against righties, yeah, I take the defensive downgrade to get his bat in for Napoli’s
|
| 10:50 |
I really am curious about your thoughts on other baseball writers. Please do consider giving me your thoughts on Keith Law, Jonah Keri, etc. Thanks. |
| 10:51 |
: They are all very good in their own ways. We’re talking about the cream of the crop. I don’t know what kind of insight you want me to provide, and I don’t have strong opinions about any good writers on the internet. Good writers are good writers, and I’ll disagree sometimes, and I’d so much rather read something from one of these guys than something from Bowden or the CBS crew
|
| 10:53 |
: It isn’t even about the writing, per se — it’s about the thought processes. I like people who really think about baseball, in all the detail necessary. Or at least in as much detail as they can. Law and I are very different, but I admire the way, say, Sam Miller gets his brain going. Ben Lindbergh. Grant Brisbee in a different way. I’m a big fan of thinkers.
|
| 10:53 |
What is the nicest thing you can say about AJ Pierzynski? |
| 10:53 |
: He’s never done anything unpleasant to me or a loved one
|
| 10:53 |
Do you respect BP? |
| 10:53 |
: For the most part, yeah, why wouldn’t I?
|
| 10:54 |
best player-turned-broadcaster in the near future? -coach? |
| 10:54 |
: Pedro Martinez right now
|
| 10:54 |
You wrote “Why would I read anything that Jim Bowden writes?” but he was a real GM, isn’t it interested at least from that angle? |
| 10:54 |
: Not really; times have changed and he sucked
|
| 10:54 |
Is there anyone in your normal life who makes you think to yourself, hey, you should be a writer? |
| 10:55 |
: Yes, but not people you know 🙁
|
| 10:55 |
Do you think you’d ever want to do radio and TV like Dave Cameron or Rob Neyer occasionally do? |
| 10:55 |
: I’ve done a bunch of radio for years. It’s a nice break from the routine
|
| 10:55 |
: I’d be interested in going back on TV just for funsies
|
| 10:55 |
Any chance Derek Zumsteg joins FanGraphs one day? |
| 10:55 |
: no, he’s out of the baseball game
|
| 10:56 |
Could Halladay rebound? |
| 10:56 |
: Yes, but he’ll never be Roy Halladay again
|
| 10:56 |
What do you think of Joe Posnanski? Which baseball writers do you consider ‘must read’? |
| 10:57 |
: Posnanski is an eloquent thinker, and nobody is a “must-read”. Not across the board. Nothing is even of sufficient importance to be a must-read. If you miss a good baseball article, you’ll survive. I hate that term. I click on pretty much everything by Sam, but it’s up to what I’m doing and how I’m feeling
|
| 10:57 |
Chapman starting next year? |
| 10:57 |
: no
|
| 10:57 |
Best pizza in America: Pepe’s in New Haven. Thoughts? http://www.cbsnews.com/8301-201_162-57608606/best-pizzas-in-america-named/ |
| 10:57 |
: Never been and I hate picking favorites
|
| 10:57 |
: especially with food. the lists are all such bullshit
|
| 10:57 |
Any chance Ellsbury turns down more money to return to the Sox? |
| 10:57 |
: Not a good one
|
| 10:58 |
do the Cubs improve a little bit next year |
| 10:58 |
: sure do!
|
| 10:58 |
Between Guest and Danny has anyone else asked a question? |
| 10:58 |
: this has been a weird week for this chat
|
| 10:58 |
What non-baseball writers do you follow regularly? |
| 10:58 |
Do you think that MGL will be friendlier now that he has to provide the content of his own blog rather than just comment on others? |
| 10:58 |
: nope
|
| 10:59 |
Why was each of the “Fake” contracts so low? |
| 10:59 |
: People are naturally risk-averse
|
| 10:59 |
: And they figure, probably rightly, that the FA market isn’t, at least when it comes to the winners
|
| 11:00 |
Do you think Dave Cameron will still be writing for FanGraphs in five years? |
| 11:00 |
: I think so, but it’s hard to say if anyone will still be working on the internet in five years. What will the internet be in five years? What will we be doing in five years? It’s terrifying to actually think about this.
|
| 11:00 |
: for me
|
| 11:00 |
Is Eno Sarris the most underrated of the full-timers at FG? |
| 11:00 |
: Appelman makes everything work
|
| 11:00 |
Do we properly understand player development? |
| 11:00 |
: not at all
|
| 11:00 |
Could a win be worth seven million on the open market? |
| 11:00 |
: unlikely, but, soon
|
| 11:01 |
Do you like Steven Goldman’s work? |
| 11:01 |
: seldom see it
|
| 11:01 |
Why don’t you listen to podcasts or imageboards? I thought internet writers were more intune with these things. |
| 11:01 |
: On average they are
|
| 11:01 |
: but I’d rather listen to music and I’d rather not be on a computer than be on a computer browsing whatever imageboards are
|
| 11:01 |
How good would a reliever have to be for you to offer him a QA? Basically Rivera? |
| 11:02 |
: Yeah, I think that sets the level
|
| 11:02 |
CBS has a crew? |
| 11:02 |
: They all constantly retweet each other
|
| 11:02 |
Dayn Perry says hello from CBS |
| 11:02 |
So, what you’re saying is, you don’t want to read anything by Dayn Perry? |
| 11:02 |
: referring more to the Heyman/Knobler/Miller/Doyel bunch
|
| 11:02 |
Is Dustin Pedroia still one of the top AL players? For example, could he threaten to win another MVP? |
| 11:02 |
: Yeah, I think he’s very good and ought to bounce back with a healthy hand
|
| 11:02 |
Nike just donated 200k to the LGBT sports coalition, isn’t this sort of unprecedented? |
| 11:03 |
: I’ll have to read more about this. Kudos!
|
| 11:03 |
What do you think of Adrien Gonzalez going forward? |
| 11:03 |
: Pretty good for now, overpaid and overrated
|
| 11:03 |
Was this year just fluky or could Hanley Ramirez be going through a career resurgence? |
| 11:03 |
: I think I’m on board with resurgence!
|
| 11:03 |
: Which makes one really curious about the effects of playing with a team like the Marlins.
|
| 11:03 |
Do I ever make the Home run Derby? |
| 11:03 |
: heavens no
|
| 11:03 |
Who are the best managers in baseball? How could a fan tell? |
| 11:04 |
: I honestly don’t know the answer to this question. I honestly don’t know where to begin. I want to start with Joe Maddon, but is that just my own bias coming out? It’s such a challenge. Just, no idea.
|
| 11:04 |
What do you look for when you watch a baseball game? Do you think you are starting to watch more through the scout’s or fan’s eye as you progress into national baseball writing? |
| 11:05 |
: It kind of depends on the storylines and on what I’ve written lately. The Uehara thing, for example, just jumped out when Farrell said something in an otherwise useless post-game interview. I like to focus on events, and I like to write about things either unusual or greatly significant, which would have to be approached in a different way from the norm
|
| 11:06 |
: There’s also a lot of time I spend just zoning out. A couple weeks ago Clay Buchholz literally put me to sleep
|
| 11:06 |
Astros, A’s, or Texas in five years? |
| 11:06 |
: Texas
|
| 11:06 |
What’s the best kind of pie? |
| 11:06 |
: chicken pot
|
| 11:07 |
Are volcanoes more interesting to you than baseball? |
| 11:07 |
: sometimes
|
| 11:08 |
Who should have been the AL MVP this year? |
| 11:08 |
: Probably Trout
|
| 11:08 |
How can I work for FG? |
| 11:08 |
: Submit articles to the community blog and have them be good
|
| 11:08 |
: Or, be a super awesome coder and get in touch with David Appelman
|
| 11:08 |
What country has the best access to a balance of volcanoes and baseball? |
| 11:09 |
: the grand ol U-S-of-A!
|
| 11:09 |
Is their an argument that Joey Votto was the NL MVP this year? Or was McCutchen that much better than the field? |
| 11:09 |
: Not a real good, compelling argument for Votto that I can dream up
|
| 11:09 |
Why isn’t Iwakuma more respected in the Cy Young race? Isn’t he easily a top 5 AL pitcher? |
| 11:09 |
: Not easily — you have to put a lot of stock in ERA. But, there’s an argument for ERA when you’re looking backwards, so, he should get more consideration than he probably will
|
| 11:09 |
How much better are the Red Sox than the Cardinals? Like, say, if the Red Sox are a 10, the Cardinals are a ___ |
| 11:10 |
: If the Red Sox and the Cardinals played 162 games against just one another, the Red Sox might finish…88-74? 90-72?
|
| 11:10 |
When you watch baseball with friends or in a bar how do you balance being a fan and an analyst? I always find myself assuming that everyone else reads BP and FG and then trying to explain my ‘odd’ takes! |
| 11:11 |
: Depends on the audience, but most of the time I just dumb down. What’s the harm? Have fun with it
|
| 11:11 |
: Dumbing down is also just about unavoidable after beers
|
| 11:11 |
What is the worst part of writing about baseball? |
| 11:11 |
: February
|
| 11:12 |
: But a more honest answer would probably be the around-the-clock nature of the sport. First thing I have to do every morning is see what I missed
|
| 11:12 |
A good chicken pot pie…is heavenly! |
| 11:12 |
“Submit articles to the community blog and have them be good” I have one coming tonight. I hope it will be acceptable. |
| 11:12 |
: I’ll let you know!
|
| 11:12 |
You mention that the Red Sox are better than the Cardinals, but how much better? Like if the Red Sox are a 10, the Cardinals are a ____? |
| 11:12 |
: Whoops, answered this already
|
| 11:13 |
Next year, Gerrit Cole or Teheran? |
| 11:13 |
: Cole
|
| 11:13 |
I can’t believe you are still on here…2hrs plus…a life? |
| 11:13 |
: I can’t believe I am either! I still need to research and write about the year’s wildest swings!
|
| 11:13 |
I think I have at least a decent question about the Cubs and you put up something about the balance of volcanoes and baseball. ???????????? |
| 11:13 |
: I’m really into volcanoes
|
| 11:14 |
: The Cubs are going to be active in the FA market this offseason, but they might be too responsible an organization to end up the winners of a real FA-star sweepstakes
|
| 11:14 |
: But they’re getting ready to begin the transition from youth to developing contender
|
| 11:14 |
Over/under 160 innings for Justin Masterson next year? |
| 11:14 |
: Over
|
| 11:14 |
Rest of career…Cole or Teheran? |
| 11:14 |
: Cole
|
| 11:14 |
Do you like the random nature of sports? Or do you wish the ‘best team’ won more often? |
| 11:14 |
: I prefer it this way. More difficult to see things coming. If we saw things coming, that would be the end of sports.
|
| 11:15 |
What is Justin Smoak’s potential as a first baseman? Would you rather go get someone kind of horrible like Victor Martinez mostly because you just don’t think Smoak is it? Or does DJ Peterson eventually come to play 1B? |
| 11:15 |
: Eventually Peterson. Smoak’s ceiling at this point is like 2-3 wins, and he’s not at his ceiling. He’s a pretty mediocre asset.
|
| 11:15 |
Red Sox being 88-74 against a team that got 97 wins this year seems absurd. Can you give any analysis to support your claim? |
| 11:16 |
: Well, for one thing, the Red Sox as a team accumulated 18 more WAR
|
| 11:17 |
: They also had a tougher schedule, and the Cardinals don’t have Shelby Miller doing anything anymore
|
| 11:17 |
: Then there’s the matter of the Sox adding Peavy
|
| 11:17 |
Tell me about southern california volcanoes, Jeff. What south of Shasta and Lassen and north of Mexico should I look out for? |
| 11:18 |
Do you hate doing favorites lists b/c you feel they are elitest, and not fair to the objects they rate? |
| 11:19 |
: I think they’re not fair, and I think for food in particular, it’s all just based on small-sample observations where people don’t adequately appreciate how many things affect their dining experience aside from just the food served to them
|
| 11:19 |
: Who the hell can honestly, objectively identify a best pizza in a state or a country?
|
| 11:19 |
So the Cardinals ARE clutch? Or, were clutch in 2013? Or, were “clutch” in 2013? |
| 11:19 |
: were timely in 2013
|
| 11:20 |
When was the last time a baseball article changed the way you approached the sport? |
| 11:20 |
: first thing that jumps out is Mike Fast’s stuff on framing
|
| 11:20 |
: there might have been something since that, though. that’s just been the big one
|
| 11:20 |
Have you had a good sour beer lately? What do you recommend? |
| 11:21 |
: I was just at Cascade on Friday night for my birthday. I recommend sour beers from Cascade!
|
| 11:21 |
: Good god, I need to get going. Stuff to do, stuff to do
|
| 11:21 |
: Thank you everybody for coming by and hanging out, and sorry for what I didn’t or couldn’t get to. We’ll do it again next Tuesday, and in the meantime, World Series! Or, offseason daydreaming! Be well and have great days
|
Jeff made Lookout Landing a thing, but he does not still write there about the Mariners. He does write here, sometimes about the Mariners, but usually not.
Does Jack Z hire the next Mariner manager, or is it Lincoln and Armstrong who do the choosing? Just looking for your educated opinion…