Jeff Sullivan FanGraphs Chat — 10/23/15
| 9:05 |
: Hello friends
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| 9:05 |
: Welcome to Friday baseball chat
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| 9:05 |
: Where based on early indications we’re going to talk a lot about managers? My excitement is through the damn roof
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| 9:05 |
Odds that Gabe Kapler will be Dodgers manager in 2016? I loved him in “Welcome Back Kotter.” |
| 9:06 |
: I kind of thought he’d be named the manager when the Dodgers first hired him a while back, but it makes sense they had to give him a little seasoning. Now? Now he’s the odds-on favorite.
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| 9:07 |
: Smart guy, playing experience, a real uniter. Super motivating. If the Dodgers believe a manager’s No. 1 duty takes place in the clubhouse, Kapler appears to be a wonderful option there who won’t give anything back on the strategic side of things
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| 9:07 |
Scott Servais … thoughts? |
| 9:08 |
: Predictable that he was going to end up with the Mariners in some capacity. Really close to Dipoto. Can’t evaluate a manager who’s never managed, but Servais did some good things in his role in Anaheim and based on the early stuff I’m a fan of the Mariners’ new direction
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| 9:09 |
Jeff, was pondering your article about Volquez’s perfect pitch. What do you think- in theory- about the merits of a computerized strike zone? Not saying I would support such a thing, but is the goal of umpires to be right, or to keep a human element in the game? What if there was some magic objective guarantee that the computerized strike zone would never be wrong? Should umpires still be present in the game under those conditions? |
| 9:10 |
: I would fully support a system that was guaranteed to be right 100% of the time. Unlike replay review, it wouldn’t cause the game any delays, and why not enforce a perfectly consistent strike zone? It’s what everyone wants. As we stand, our systems aren’t close to perfect. And even with an automated strike zone, there would still be a need for on-field umpires for other responsibilities
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| 9:11 |
: At the end of the day I actually like the human element — in a weird way I like that there are mistakes and disagreements. But I know some of that is just inertia and I could get used to the future
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| 9:11 |
Is David Price going to be David Price tonight? |
| 9:11 |
: He’s not going to be R.A. Dickey
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| 9:12 |
: If you think about it, earlier, he was David Price for six innings and some other guy for one. I like him tonight
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| 9:12 |
Hi Jeff! |
| 9:12 |
: hey
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| 9:13 |
Mike Scioscia’s famous gripe with Jerry DiPoto was that he was infringing on the territory of the clubhouse and dugout, places the Front Office traditionally stays out of. Now, given the chance, Jerry DiPoto has literally installed his Front Office into the clubhouse and dugout. How progressive is this, and why wont it blow up in his face? |
| 9:14 |
: This isn’t unusual. Scioscia is one of the last remaining managers with outsized power. In the past, managers were among the most powerful people in an organization, and Scioscia is a link back to that. It’s not so much like that these days, as front offices are trying to exert more control over clubhouse and dugout stuff by emphasizing the “GM-manager relationship.”
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| 9:15 |
: In a lot of ways, the contemporary manager is just an extension of the inner front office. Managers will still have their own particular duties, so they aren’t just puppets, but this is a league-wide trend
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| 9:17 |
Would it make sense for the White Sox to trade J Quintana for Puig? And, would that be enough to get him? |
| 9:19 |
: I think you’re looking at roughly equivalent trade assets. I haven’t run the numbers but that seems fairly even. You can see why the Dodgers would do it. The White Sox? That’s harder — Puig has the high ceiling, of course, but it’s sort of a lateral move that doesn’t make the 2016 White Sox better. It moves a hole from the position-player side to the rotation
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| 9:20 |
At what number would you start to mostly consider the under on Mike Trout’s career WAR? |
| 9:21 |
: You’re in the vicinity of 100. Something crazy like that
|
| 9:21 |
Mets Narrative : Young power pitching and Daniel Murphy |
| 9:21 |
: Narrative, or thing that has happened?
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| 9:22 |
If the Mariners hire Scott Servais as manager, they should consider going the next step and hiring him to be player-manager. He, even at 48, might hit better than Seattle’s current set of catchers. |
| 9:22 |
: Better career hitter than Mike Zunino!
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| 9:22 |
Has John Gibbons managed poorly in the playoffs? |
| 9:23 |
: Strategy-wise, it’s hard to look past the David Price stuff, but you also realize he’s been up against it without Cecil and occasionally without Loup. I don’t think he’s insane; I think he just has a weird David Price blind spot
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| 9:24 |
If you were signing Estrada to your team next season, would you also try to sign Navarro (his personal catcher) too? |
| 9:24 |
: I wouldn’t dedicate two roster spots just so I can try to maximally please a No. 4 starter
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| 9:26 |
Would baseball be improved if umpires switched jobs with soccer referees? Punishments would also transfer over; a player arguing balls and strikes would get a yellow, throwing at heads is a straight red, etc. Also, a red card means that player has to sit out the next game. |
| 9:26 |
: That’s sort of how it works now, just without the cards. But if you throw at a head on purpose, you’re likely to be ejected and suspended
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| 9:28 |
What kind of contract (yrs/$) will Mike Leake get? |
| 9:28 |
: I’ll guess something like 3/$40m or 4/$45m
|
| 9:29 |
: Maybe 4/$50m. He’s a mid-rotation starter and he doesn’t have Ervin Santana’s strikeout upside
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| 9:30 |
Why talk about Managers when you could talk about GM’s? There’s doubt starting to creep in that AA is going to return to Toronto. Media fluff or do you think there’s legit concern with Beeston out and Shapiro in? |
| 9:31 |
: Just speculation on my part but there are presumably questions about how AA and Shapiro will get along professionally, and they haven’t had much opportunity to hash that out with the Blue Jays still involved in things. My assumption is that the front office will remain in place
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| 9:34 |
What would a realistic trade return for Mark Melancon look like? Most pirates fans I talk to seem to think he could get a top 100 prospect if they traded him. I think they’re way overvaluing him. What say you? |
| 9:34 |
: I just spent a minute reviewing last winter’s trades
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| 9:35 |
: Not a great comp there — I mean, Tyler Clippard got Yunel Escobar
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| 9:35 |
: But you’re talking about a good reliever with one year left, who won’t be *too* expensive. There’s real trade value there, but you might get two lower-100 prospects. Maybe one and a throw-in. You’re not getting anything premium
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| 9:36 |
As a Jays fan, I should be elated in having ~1/4 odds to make the world series, no? |
| 9:36 |
: Yes?
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| 9:36 |
: Especially since the odds were about half that just the other day
|
| 9:36 |
: And today you have one of the two AL Cy Young candidates on the mound
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| 9:36 |
: Tomorrow you get a guy who might be as good as the Cy Young candidate
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| 9:36 |
What is your take on all the rookies managers hired? Many with little to no coaching experience. This is a trend, isn’t it? |
| 9:36 |
: Unquestionably
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| 9:37 |
: Even Dan Jennings was eventually welcomed after the initial weirdness. The Marlins came to like him in a dugout/clubhouse role
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| 9:37 |
: You can teach managing. You want to find people who are leadership-capable. And the less experienced a manager, the more influence a front office can have, as well
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| 9:38 |
Do Cubs trade Soler + Baez or Castro for a cost controlled pitcher (Ross, Carrasco?) and also try to sign a free agent pitcher? |
| 9:38 |
: I don’t think Soler gets moved
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| 9:38 |
These guys get traded or stay? Puig, Marcel Ozuna, Jose Quintana, Todd Frazier |
| 9:38 |
: trade, trade, stay, right now don’t know. The Reds *should* probably move Frazier, and there’s been more talk about that, but I don’t know if the front office will ultimately be convinced to tear down
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| 9:39 |
Although the Royals are up 3-2, why do I feel most of the people believe the Jays are advancing? What do you think? |
| 9:40 |
: I mean, the Royals are the obvious favorites, just because they have to win half as many games. But the Jays have their two pitchers going, and because they won the last game people think they have “momentum”. I’m personally just glad the series didn’t end in five
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| 9:40 |
: I mean, if it had, I’d have more of a free weekend…but I like good baseball as an activity!
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| 9:40 |
jeff, I have determined that I want to get into hiking/camping but have no idea how. Where do I go? What do I do? I live in SE Michigan and its about to be winter so I guess I have a few months to figure this out |
| 9:40 |
: One problem is I don’t know anything about SE Michigan at all. So I can’t give you specific place recommendations
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| 9:41 |
: But what I find personally is that I get pulled to the outdoors. It doesn’t even really matter where — I just feel most centered when I’m outside and isolated. If you can find that feeling within yourself, that’s the biggest thing, because then you’ll always have a drive to go out and explore
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| 9:43 |
: It helps to have a partner or three, but it’s by no means necessary, especially if you just want to go on a hike. Start small, hike a few miles, and get some experience. You might find you want to keep pushing it, so the next hike, go longer. Then go longer again. Eventually, camp overnight. Then camp over two nights. Then backpack for three or four days.
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| 9:43 |
: It’s a process, but if the wilderness sings to you, you’ll enjoy every part of it.
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| 9:43 |
im a mets fan, who am i rooting for tonight? |
| 9:44 |
: I maintain that the Blue Jays are better, so I’d say the Royals
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| 9:45 |
: But it’s nothing lopsided, and it might depend on whether you think the Mets rotation matches up better with the Jays’ power or the Royals’ contact.
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| 9:45 |
: Maybe root for the Jays tonight, just so Cueto and Stroman get used tomorrow.
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| 9:47 |
I understand why saber guys like the dodgers front office but do you agree with the way they are running a big market team? They have a 300mm payroll with a stupid amount of money tied up into bad contracts they took on to get better prospects and buy low guys that didn’t rebound. isn’t part of the appeal of having a ridiculous payroll is that you don’t have to dumpster dive, you can just overpay for known quantities? |
| 9:48 |
: It’s a process for them. So far, a lot of that money has been used to essentially buy prospects from other teams. So that’ll supplement something of a young core. But it’s not how they’re going to act forever. Dead money eventually gets cleared
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| 9:49 |
: And it’s not like they can’t act in different ways at the same time. For example, they’re likely to re-sign Zack Greinke. It would be hard to do that if it weren’t for all the money that they have. Greinke’s a pretty well known quantity
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| 9:49 |
While talking managers: Will Ryne Sandberg ever get another MLB gig? Seems like he was too old-school for this day and age. |
| 9:50 |
: I do think it’s unlikely. He could have a different sort of coaching role, and he was hurt by having to manage under awful circumstances, but he doesn’t seem to fit the new breed
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| 9:51 |
How much money can Price earn/lost today? What’s the difference between a great start and a terrible start? I say 10 million. |
| 9:51 |
: Off the top of my head, that sounds about right. If he really and truly sucks, like Cueto just did, that’ll be a problem, but it’ll still pale in comparison to the regular season
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| 9:53 |
Am I wrong to wish we could get the local broadcasters to do the home games for the WS? Meaning, for instance, the AL team’s crew would have 1,2,6, and 7, the Mets would have 3-5. I know it can’t happen because of licensing, but is it such a crazy dream? |
| 9:53 |
: Remember when the White Sox won the World Series?
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| 9:53 |
: I don’t think it’s crazy. I’d be okay with it
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| 9:53 |
Is there anything you can say about the finalists for the GM position in Philadelphia? Seems like it’s Klentak and Bloom at least. |
| 9:54 |
: No matter who they hire, the organization is going to travel through time to the present
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| 9:54 |
Theo Epstein said yesterday the Cubs need to improve the OF defense. What steps do you see them taking to accomplish this? Does that mean Dexter Fowler is gone, to be replaced by a rangier CF to-be-determined? |
| 9:54 |
: I imagine they’ll be closely monitoring the Jason Heyward situation in St Louis
|
| 9:55 |
: Makes you wonder about Schwarber, but I don’t want to speculate based on something I haven’t thought much about yet
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| 9:56 |
What starters should the Blue Jays target this off season? AA has apparently tried to acquire Samardzija, Brett Anderson before. Good fits? |
| 9:56 |
: Might end up a situation where he’s having to look for trades, since a lot of free agents prefer not to sign in Canada
|
| 9:57 |
: Then you start thinking about all that Carlos Carrasco talk. I assume that’ll be re-visited
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| 9:57 |
: Would be an interesting time to try to take Kevin Gausman from the Orioles
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| 9:58 |
Chris Young the pitcher vs. R.A. Dickey – essay writing contest. Who wins? |
| 9:58 |
: My sense is Dickey is a better or at least more experienced writer. Young is just generally smart
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| 9:59 |
: Dickey wins the writing contest, Young wins a debate
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| 9:59 |
Keeping the human element in the game is the dumbest pile of crap I’ve ever heard. If you want randomness, fine, but there are better ways of accomplishing that then relying on umpires sometimes being wrong. |
| 9:59 |
: It ends up on a spectrum of how seriously you want to take sports
|
| 10:01 |
I watched a college football game at a friend’s insistence last weekend. The two teams would send a bunch of folks out onto the field slowly. They would stand and chat for a while. They would go get in place. They would begin playing football. 5-6 seconds later they play would end and they would stop playing football. The referees would huddle. They would discuss the play. They would review it on tape. The coaches would discuss with the referees. They players would stand there and discuss what should happen when they play football again. Between each play, minutes would pass. My friend told me baseball is boring because nothing happens. |
| 10:03 |
: More people are involved in a given football play than in a given baseball play. And the average football play involves more moments of interest than an average baseball play. There’s no denying that the physical nature of football taps into something primal. But also, football is just victory in marketing. It’s marketed as a more intense game than it really is
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| 10:03 |
: I personally find football to be really boring. Constant interruptions. It just depends on where you’re coming from. If you’re already a football fan, you’ll prefer it over baseball, and vice versa
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| 10:04 |
: And they’re both less entertaining in the moment than hockey
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| 10:04 |
What realistic improvements can be made to Cubs team D, while balancing optimal offensive group? AJax a reasonable placeholder for CF? |
| 10:04 |
: No, Austin Jackson is a fourth outfielder
|
| 10:04 |
: Denard Span could be of interest as a buy-low
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| 10:05 |
What first got you into baseball? Into baseball writing? |
| 10:05 |
: You know, I don’t actually know. I didn’t grow up surrounded by sports in my early years and I didn’t play organized baseball until high school
|
| 10:06 |
: But I know I liked throwing things and I know I was too much of a coward to play football
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| 10:06 |
: I think a lot of it really started on the ESPN message boards. I had a casual interest in baseball, then I started chatting about it every day, and then I got introduced to the turn-of-the-millennium Baseball Prospectus books, which were fun reads at that time
|
| 10:07 |
: Made me more interested in thinking about baseball, and playing it, and writing about it
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| 10:07 |
If you’re Epstoyer , do you just buy arms or a bit of FA + leveraging of some “surplus” young talent? |
| 10:07 |
: Probably trade for a starter or two. Wouldn’t want to get involved in the big FA starter sweepstakes
|
| 10:08 |
Would 3/45 be a realistic offer for Estrada or do you see his recent performance driving up the term of his next contract? |
| 10:09 |
: You have to *really* believe in Estrada’s contact management, which he hasn’t shown before this year. 7.8 career RA9-WAR, 7.4 career FIP-WAR. 3/45 might be the cap
|
| 10:10 |
: a few months ago, he was a swing guy with a home-run problem. This year helps, but not that much
|
| 10:10 |
Jeff, teams that have swept the LCS are apparently 1-6 or 1-7 in the World Series. Small sample size or something to worry about if you’re the Mets? |
| 10:11 |
: Sample size. I’m sure there’s something to the idea that teams can get rusty when they sit around for too long, but if I were a Mets fan I’d focus on the extra rest going to the starters
|
| 10:12 |
If you are David Price, are you comfortable with the Royals trying to push all hits the other way like the tough IP last time out? Should he be pitching inside tonight to avoid the BABIP war he may lose? |
| 10:13 |
: Last game, the Royals hit .231 against Price, with one double, no walks, and eight strikeouts. One of the six hits was the un-caught blooper. Price overall threw a good game and if he could get the same line again, he and the Jays would be thrilled
|
| 10:14 |
: As I look back on it, Price didn’t not throw inside. Probably could’ve gone in another time or two against lefties, but I’ll trust what David Price wants to try to do in a start
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| 10:15 |
Let’s say that Price pitches 3 innings tonight and then the game gets significantly delayed due to rain (to the point where they can’t put Price back in). When the game resumes, what would be the best course of action for the Jays? Should they throw Stroman (gm7 starter) for the rest of the game and then have Price ready to go out of the pen in game 7? |
| 10:15 |
: Go to the bullpen. Their bullpen doesn’t suck
|
| 10:20 |
 According to Brooks, Price has been grooving too many pitches. Velo and movement look fine, just needs to fine tune command maybe.
|
| 10:21 |
| 10:22 |
: Price has become a pound-the-zone type of pitcher. He’s always throwing strikes, and a good number of those have long wound up in the center. I don’t think he’d deny to you that he could stand to have better command, but he normally gets a lot of the plate. Again, I don’t think he was actually bad last time out
|
| 10:22 |
Thoughts on the Passan article? |
| 10:22 |
: He wanted to write about the way Price has been used or almost used. He succeeded in doing that
|
| 10:23 |
If the cost of a win in free agency is about $9 million. Wouldn’t it be reasonable to think Bryce Harper could get $60 million per season we he becomes a free agent in 3 years? |
| 10:24 |
: In theory, Harper could be worth that much money, but Kershaw signed away some free-agent years for $33 million. Trout, $33.25 million. You’re not going to see a leap from that to $60 million. Instead, you’d see figures like $40 million a year, for a really really long time
|
| 10:24 |
How much extra cash does an NLCS appearance bring in to a club? Just wondering how the Cubs budget picture really changes from the playoffs. |
| 10:25 |
: Totally off the top of my head but their playoff run might’ve been worth like, $25 million. They were already super popular so it’s not like they got exposed to some hidden new audience
|
| 10:25 |
What top starting pitcher do you think is the most likely to be traded this offseason? |
| 10:25 |
: Carrasco?
|
| 10:27 |
For those asking about an automated strikezone, we already see the effects of “robot umpires” with instant replay. Players that were safe for the last 100 years are now being called out by replay because they lost contact with the base for a split second. These calls are technically correct, which means that the same calls 30 years ago were incorrect. Are there rules that need to change, or is this just baseball now? |
| 10:28 |
: And also, in this case, there’s no ball/strike equivalent of the same sliding replay review. In a theoretical system with perfect measuring devices and a perfect agreed-upon strike zone, a pitch either touched the zone or it didn’t. End of story
|
| 10:29 |
Considering how much of Billy Hamilton’s value is derived from a set of skills that age quite poorly, should the Reds look into trading him before he gets too far into arbitration? |
| 10:30 |
: Better off seeing if he ever learns to hit. Trade value wouldn’t be that high
|
| 10:30 |
When does the trading season officially start? |
| 10:31 |
: Last year’s World Series wrapped up on October 29. Lind got traded for Estrada on November 1. Conger got traded November 5; the Heyward blockbuster happened November 17
|
| 10:31 |
: the offseason comes quickly
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| 10:32 |
The NL Central is brutal, our payroll is pretty maxed, we have money tied up in Homer Bailey, Votto, etc. Would you say our near-term outlook is dim, dark, bleak, or are we talking black hole? |
| 10:32 |
: Not black hole because that would successfully also destroy the Cardinals, Cubs, and Pirates
|
| 10:32 |
: The Reds might be in the worst position in baseball right now
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| 10:32 |
Do you buy in to the idea that the Mets can “go cold” sitting around for five days reading about how good they are? And by the same token, should the Mets be worried about a “resurgent” Blue Jays team or a a Royals team that “overcame” if that series goes 7 games? Or is this all BS narrative stuff we should ignore? |
| 10:33 |
: Something needs to pass the time.
|
| 10:33 |
: Assume that, in the end, the World Series will happen and the teams will look like normal. Even if the Mets *were* flat for some reason in Game 1, you’d think that would get better by the next day
|
| 10:33 |
You are a GM, and the Cubs are calling you to get a starting pitcher. What players are you realistically asking for in return? |
| 10:33 |
: Baez seems the most available
|
| 10:34 |
Speaking of Zunino, can plate discipline be taught? Or, once a hacker, always a hacker? Thinking of Javy Baez too….. |
| 10:35 |
: I don’t think Zunino’s problem is actually his discipline. I think his swing has been such that he hasn’t been in good position to lay off of the right pitches. I think there’s a decent eye in there and it’s begging the rest of him to swing in such a way that it can be put to use
|
| 10:35 |
Do you think John Gibbons made David Price throw a simulated game yesterday? |
| 10:35 |
: Probably just poisoned him
|
| 10:36 |
Attempting as one message this time: Mets = Murphy and power youth pitchers. Jays = sluggers and Price, KC = speed/defense and bullpen. Which of these do you think lease represents the actual reason for the team’s success? |
| 10:37 |
: I guess KC; the offense isn’t bad and in the playoffs it’s been tremendous
|
| 10:37 |
Hey Jeff. I mean no disrespect, but you seem like a very intelligent being. Have you ever considered applying such high-functioning brain matter to something more impactful? (ie save planet) Please don’t, you’re the best |
| 10:38 |
: That’s the eternal struggle. I have this conversation probably once a month with different people whose careers interest me. I assume I won’t be writing about baseball for the next 30 or 40 years of my life, so there’ll be an opportunity to do something else down the line
|
| 10:38 |
: like volcano preservation
|
| 10:38 |
What affect, if any, did Joe Maddon constantly shaking his head at the strike zone have on the rest of the Cubs? Maybe if he motivated his team instead of crying “woe is me”, the Cubs might have had a chance. |
| 10:38 |
: you really nailed em
|
| 10:39 |
What is your prediction for strike zone size into next year? At its present rate of expansion, by 2040 all ABs will result in either a hit, strikeout, or HBP…. |
| 10:39 |
: The strike zone stayed pretty consistent the last two years, and this year offense went up, especially down the stretch, so I think for the time being, MLB is content
|
| 10:39 |
Is it surprising how well Terry Collins has managed throughout the playoffs? His managing of the starters and bullpen (especially Familia) has been better than I’ve ever seen from him. |
| 10:39 |
: It helps when the starters keep being good
|
| 10:40 |
: Perfect example of how a thin bullpen doesn’t necessarily have to be a problem in the playoffs, when you can just keep the ball away from the weak links
|
| 10:42 |
Mike Matheny has now managed four seasons. Each regular season he managed a dominant regular season team. Each postseason, his team lost three straight games to be eliminated at various levels. Is he a good regular season/bad postseason manager? Or just lucky/unlucky? |
| 10:43 |
: I don’t think he’s a great manager by any means, but he’s basically .500 in the playoffs (21-22) and this year in particular he didn’t have Carlos Martinez, or a normal Michael Wacha. Yadier Molina was hurt, etc. Below-average strategist, but there’s not enough to say he’s a horrible October liability
|
| 10:43 |
prediction for today and, if necessary, tomorrow? |
| 10:44 |
: Gut says Jays win tonight and Royals rally to win tomorrow. Gut isn’t worth anything, but neither is an actual prediction that I think about
|
| 10:45 |
Do teams value postseason performance? Not as a repeatable skill, but as an accumulation of value? We talk about Murphy’s value improving, so it would seem so. If that’s the case, shouldn’t postseason games factor into WAR? Separate from regular season stats, but it is still a player accumulating value in games that actually happen in typically higher leverage games. |
| 10:46 |
: It’s definitely not ignored. If you think about Murphy’s whole 2015, he slugged .449 in the regular season, but if you fold in the playoffs that’s up to .490. Teams recognize that. However, in all cases, the playoff sample size is overwhelmed by the season sample size. And also, this Murphy run is an anomaly. Most players aren’t anywhere close to this, so it’s a very small factor in the end
|
| 10:46 |
If you were Dipoto would you try to sell high on Cruz and try to re-stock the farm a bit? Or would you prefer to not be crucified by the fanbase? |
| 10:47 |
: Honestly I think I’d try to win in 2016, and that involves Cruz. On the farm, I’d hope for better results with a better player-development system. The problem might not be the young talent itself
|
| 10:48 |
Stat line for Darvish in 2016? |
| 10:48 |
: something like 28 starts, FIP- around 80 – 85
|
| 10:48 |
What happened to playoff game chats? Or have I just missed it every time? |
| 10:49 |
: No, you haven’t missed it — we haven’t had a chat for I think two weeks. I haven’t had a direction conversation about it so I don’t know why they haven’t happened, but I assume it’s because they are a good amount of work and they make it more difficult to pay good attention to the game. Plus, there are only so many volunteers, and you don’t want to keep giving the chats to the same people
|
| 10:49 |
: My guess is we’ll have World Series chats
|
| 10:50 |
The Mariners and Hisashi Iwakuma seem to have a mutual interest in returning. What does that new contract look like? And how much of a discount is he giving them compared to other offers he’ll likely receive? |
| 10:51 |
: The discount is that he’ll re-sign in the first place. Expect something like 2/$30m or 3/$40m
|
| 10:52 |
Alex Gordon seems like a perfect fit for the Astros. 1. Do you expect him to walk? and 2. Does he get $100MM? |
| 10:53 |
: yep, yep
|
| 10:54 |
How come the Mariners constantly disappoint year after year even when having high expectations |
| 10:54 |
: Two years ago they were a game from the playoffs
|
| 10:54 |
Which player do you always think is better than they really are? Do you ever look at someones player page and realize they aren’t as good as you thought |
| 10:55 |
: It’s not the best example but I keep thinking that Kelvin Herrera has a better strikeout rate than he does
|
| 10:56 |
: Over the last two years, Herrera has the same strikeout rate as Chad Qualls
|
| 10:56 |
What do the Mariners do with Brad Miller? He seems a capable starter, but they seem not to have room for him. Is he a utility player for them next year or trade bait? |
| 10:57 |
: Could be trade bait, could be shortstop, could be center fielder. I don’t know how Dipoto feels about him but his versatility is a good thing
|
| 10:57 |
Having a thin bullpen and really good starters is playing with fire, no? |
| 10:57 |
: Every model has risk. At least you can hide the mediocre relievers. If you’re the Royals, for example, you need to have a starting pitcher in every game before you even get to the bullpen
|
| 10:59 |
Only problem with your argument re: Mets and weak bullpen – Clippard keeps getting the ball, and Clippard looks like he is going to implode any minute |
| 10:59 |
: The average leverage when Clippard has come in during the playoffs is 0.59. So his appearances by and large haven’t been critical. It’s not that the mediocre arms have been avoided; it’s that they’ve mostly been avoided in the big spots
|
| 11:00 |
Which team is more likely to have a bounce-back season: A’s or Nats? |
| 11:00 |
: They’ll both bounce back, but the Nats have a better shot at the playoffs
|
| 11:00 |
Dave said that the Padres are now one of the least analytical offices out there with little hope for improvement in the near term. Do you agree? If so what are the conclusions based upon? One offseason of moves as judged from the outside looking in or are you guys privy to some inside info? Thanks! |
| 11:00 |
: Dave has actual baseball sources so I’d listen to him before I’d listen to me
|
| 11:01 |
Who’s the biggest name to get traded this offseason? |
| 11:01 |
: Sure seems like Puig
|
| 11:02 |
And FWIW, Clippard is not a mediocre arm. The guy has a career 2.88 ERA. Sure, the FIP is ugly but he’s been doing it that way for years. |
| 11:02 |
: 2015 has been a step back. Fewer strikeouts than usual, more walks than usual. I agree that he always beats his peripherals, but his peripherals this year slid, so Clippard himself has also slid
|
| 11:02 |
Warmer weather tonight in KC has to be a good thing for Toronto (assuming it doesn’t rain). Agree / disagree? |
| 11:02 |
: I suppose agree, but very small effect
|
| 11:03 |
CBS Sports’ Jon Heyman reports that the Nationals “are expected to try to trade” Drew Storen. |
| 11:03 |
: This was inevitable from the day of the Papelbon move
|
| 11:03 |
Do you think Kris Bryant is due for some regression in his batting average and OBP next year? His BABIP was crazy high this year and his strike out rate has been so high… |
| 11:04 |
: He’s not posting that BABIP again, but I think he’ll also improve in the walks and strikeouts, and he’ll hit for a little more power. So at the end of the day I bet his wRC+ will look similar
|
| 11:04 |
More game power.. Sano or Gallo? |
| 11:04 |
: Sano
|
| 11:05 |
Pretty much everyone that I know who’s a big football fan drinks a *lot* of beer during games. I don’t think that’s coincidence. You ever watch a football game dead sober? It is *death*. |
| 11:05 |
: It really is quite unpleasant, but then if I’m at a baseball game I’m probably two or three beers in, myself
|
| 11:07 |
Help solve a dispute for me. If you can sign David Price for a 5 year, $200mm deal or a 10 year, $200mm deal, which do you choose and why? |
| 11:07 |
: The second one will produce more value, and the total cost has less present-day monetary value than the first
|
| 11:08 |
JBJ to the Cubs? Theo certainly knows what he’d get. |
| 11:08 |
: Not a bad idea
|
| 11:08 |
We saw some really fun, young pitchers breakout this year. Keuchel, Archer. Who are we looking forward to taking a big step in 2016? |
| 11:08 |
: The consensus answer always seems to be Gausman
|
| 11:09 |
: But this is probably something that should be answered analytically, and not off the top of my head in a chat. So I’ll make it an offseason project!
|
| 11:09 |
Should they change the bereavement leave rule for the playoffs? |
| 11:09 |
: Sure seems like it
|
| 11:09 |
Jeff, if I’m mistaken you have to write two articles a day. How do you find inspiration and topics two seems like a lot. |
| 11:10 |
: Two is a lot but this is why every so often you’ll see me write about something that’s also been written about elsewhere. If I’m researching something, and then I see a tweet for an article about the same thing, I’m probably not going to give it up, because getting a new idea on the fly is hard
|
| 11:10 |
: It’s not so bad in the playoffs because *everything* seems important
|
| 11:10 |
: January is death
|
| 11:10 |
Will you ever write a meaningful article in your life? |
| 11:11 |
: I write about baseball. So, no
|
| 11:11 |
Should I get the White or Blue FG shirt? |
| 11:12 |
: Probably blue. I don’t like white shirts
|
| 11:13 |
If you were a baseball, who would you want to pitch you? |
| 11:13 |
: Clayton Kershaw or Chris Sale or something. Least chance of getting hit by a stick
|
| 11:13 |
: Well actually I guess that means Chapman
|
| 11:14 |
Mike Franscesa now says that Daniel Murphy has transcended his true value as a player and his new legacy as a the catalyst of this Mets World Series team necessitates Sandy Alderson re-signing him. |
| 11:14 |
: Can’t imagine being less interested in an opinion
|
| 11:14 |
Why would the Indians trade Carrasco? Seems like the perfect type of player to hold on to. |
| 11:14 |
: I don’t know, but all those midseason rumors weren’t coming from nothing
|
| 11:14 |
Do you think the strike zone may be bigger in October? Umps fooled by better pitchers or just some old school ideology creeping in. It seems that the way balls and strikes are called in October consistently benefits teams that emphasize contact over walks and home runs |
| 11:15 |
: I think there are better pitchers in October, so the pitchers have better command, and better command is rewarded with bigger zones
|
| 11:15 |
: So the zone is probably bigger, but I don’t think it’s really the umpiring’s fault
|
| 11:16 |
How does recency have such an effect with front offices as smart as they are? Crazy to me to think Cueto’s value is taking a serious hit based on a few performances, or that 30-yo Cespedes has taken a big leap based on career-high numbers that have a ton of red flags. |
| 11:16 |
: Well, don’t criticize front offices for things that haven’t happened yet. We’ll see what the prices end up being. But with Cueto, he hasn’t really been good for a full two months or so. That’s a problem. Cespedes won’t get paid all that much more than Upton
|
| 11:17 |
Do you think pitch calling is underrated? Obviously Dioner Navarro is not a great defensive catcher, but in the last couple years he’s been praised by both Buehrle and Estrada that he allows them to not shake off at all. And those are two guys that I’d argue that pitch selection is super important for |
| 11:17 |
: Pitch-calling is definitely underrated, in that pitchers say it’s a skill some catchers have, and we don’t know how to measure it
|
| 11:18 |
: The general pitcher/catcher relationship is probably underrated. Like, to what extent does it matter that Cueto can’t seem to get on the same page as Salvador Perez?
|
| 11:18 |
: All right, I need to get going. Been a while and this window is starting to give me browser trouble
|
| 11:19 |
: So thank you everybody for hanging out, and I’m sorry for what I didn’t or couldn’t address. We’ll do it again next week at the same time, and until then, be well and have great days. And enjoy the baseball tonight! I’m rooting for the same team as you are
|
Jeff made Lookout Landing a thing, but he does not still write there about the Mariners. He does write here, sometimes about the Mariners, but usually not.
Mike Leake’s contract will crush that prediction! He’s entering his age 28 season. There is a reason why he just cracked MLBTR’s top 10 list.