Theo Epstein: Free Agent Soothsayer

Earlier this week, Red Sox president Dave Dombrowski compared the current Red Sox roster to the one currently featured by the Kansas City Royals. For those readers just arriving here today in a time machine from three years ago, that might be surprising. Because for a long time, that would not have been a gesture of praise. For a long time, the Royals were bad; the Red Sox, typically better. But last year Boston missed the playoffs and Kansas City went to the World Series. This year, again, Boston missed the playoffs and Kansas City is very possibly on its way to the World Series. It’s not particularly daring to suggest that the Royals are better than the Red Sox wherein baseball is concerned.

Dombrowski’s decision to compare his roster favorably to the Royals’ make sense: there’s a natural inclination in all of us to imitate the qualities of those we perceive to be better. So of course Dombrowski would compare his last place team to the club that has now reached the ALCS (and, maybe soon, the World Series) in two consecutive seasons. Heck, who wouldn’t want to be like the Royals?

To what degree, though, will the complexion of that Kansas City club, and the means by which it was built, actually influence Dombrowski’s choices this offseason when considering how to construct his own major-league roster? And to what degree will it influence other front offices? If the Royals win the World Series and become the chosen franchise to emulate, can we expect relievers to command top dollar, maybe more than otherwise? To find teams clamoring for contact-oriented athletes? A secret trustworthy source thinks so. Okay, fine, it’s Theo Epstein. Here’s what Epstein said to reporters this past Monday.

The only thing I know for sure is whatever team wins the World Series their particular style of play will be completely in vogue and trumpeted from the rooftops by the media all offseason — and in front offices — as the way to win. If we win the World Series it’s going to be a necessity for every team to develop their own core of young, homegrown position players. If the Mets win it will be required that you have four ridiculous young starting pitchers on the same staff. If the Royals win you need to have speed and athleticism and contact up and down your lineup. If the Blue Jays win you need to fill your lineup with righthanded, epic mashers and make a huge trade at the deadline.

It’s tempting to say Epstein is overstating the case. After all, are MLB teams, ridiculously rich enterprises increasingly run by the cream of the Ivy League, really so susceptible to something as frivolous as who wins a single four-game series? Hell if I know, but even if I did know I’d take Theo Epstein’s opinion over mine. And faced with a choice between conducting a tedious study to verify the truth of his claim or just blindly accepting it blindly, well, in Theo we trust, eh?

Epstein’s characterizations of the teams are interesting — and likely insightful given the circles in which he swims within the baseball establishment — so let’s use those as a backbone to considering their potential effects on this year’s free-agent class while also making a few small additions.

Below I’ve attempted to summarize the most notable characteristics of the three clubs still active in the postseason in an effort to identify the aspects of team-building for which each organization will get credit this offseason — and which each will thus inadvertently promote should they win the World Series. For ease of use, let’s bullet these babies:

Mets:

• young pitching
• adding star power at the deadline
• youth in general
• staying the course

Royals:

• team defense
• contact
• bullpen over starting pitching
• speed
• staying the course

Blue Jays:

• right-handed power
• adding star power at the deadline
• bringing in an ace
• daring moves

Now, turning to the upcoming free agent class, let’s take a moment to run through some of the more prominent names and see who would benefit from which teams win the World Series. Perhaps most interesting are the potential free agents still playing, and maybe mostly so in this category is Yoenis Cespedes. It seems unfathomable Cespedes wouldn’t have shot his stock through the moon by now but did you know that in all the Daniel Murphy adulation, Cespedes has managed to hit .273/.273/.485 in these playoffs? Should the Mets actually win this thing they could be forced to consider signing the powerful outfielder simply through the power of social pressure (Mets fans are the guilting grandmother of baseball fans), but if not, Cespedes’ best bet seems to beter match the Blue Jays’ building strategy than the Royals’. Toronto is all about right-handed power and Cespedes has that. He’s not the same patient type of hitter that Jose Bautista, Edwin Encarnacion, and Troy Tulowitzki are, but power is power and teams need it, even if it’s not exactly the same as the guys who just won the series.

The players a Blue Jays victory might benefit the most are, oddly, Johnny Cueto and Jordan Zimmermann. Cueto’s track record is pretty strong: three of the last four seasons he’s been worth over four wins and the one where he wasn’t was because of injury not underperformance. Cueto’s time with the Royals has been uneven to say the least, but at least by popular perception the Royals aren’t a team built on the necessity for an ace anyway, so the fact that Cueto hasn’t pitched like one shouldn’t matter. The Blue Jays are, though. They picked up David Price at the trade deadline and that’s roughly when they took off and blew past the Yankees. But as the premier free agent starting pitcher on the market, Price was going to get paid anyway (though winning the World Series never hurts your marketability). Cueto and Zimmermann both possess their fair share of questions, but the Blue Jays winning highlights how bringing in an ace can turbocharge your team to victory.

Should the Royals win, you’d likely see relievers like Darren O’Day tick up a bit in value, as well as maybe a few lower down, more bargain-type free agents. You have to wonder if maybe Alex Rios’ few timely hits can create a collective amnesia as to how bad he really is, enough to grab another decent sized contract. Come on, guys, there’s some team out there that badly wants to pay Alex Rios $10 million next season! Fun!

It strikes me that Jason Heyward is a particularly Royals kind of player as well, though one that will come with a decidedly un-Royals-like kind of price tag. Still, for one of the larger payroll teams looking to create their own little #TrustTheProcess in the middle of Megaopolis, Heyward might be just their kind of player. When you’ve just seen great defense with a little pop win the Series, what’s $150 million between friends?

Perhaps the free-agent-to-be most in flux based on the likely crop of potential World Series winners is Justin Upton. Upton is lighting candles every night next to pictures of Alex Anthopolous because he’s a Blue Jays guy. His right-handed power with some patience — if maybe not quite so much in the defensive department — is the recipe for Blue Jays baseball. Should the Jays come back and win Upton will be just that much more in demand. If the Royals win, there’s almost no argument for Upton there. The Mets, with Cespedes and Michael Conforto could almost make an argument, though it’s probably weaker.

All of this is interesting, I think, but ultimately none of these teams are built too differently. Maybe the Blue Jays’s model features a bigger collection of well-compensated stars, but really only since the trade-deadline additions of Tulowitzki and Price. Otherwise, it’s all mid-to-lower priced free agents, drafting and player development, all buttressed with the occasional trade. The big fun would have been had the Yankees managed to make a run of it. That’s when the Chris Davises of the world would have thrown a kegger. See? You can win with a bunch of old sluggers ranking in $25 million a year! Right? Hello??

Nothing makes winning easier than when some portion of your competition tries to reinvent the wheel mid-race. It’s fun to win the World Series, but it’s an interesting side benefit that doing so causes a bunch of competitors to simultaneously point and whine to their mommies that, “I waaaant thhhaaaaat!” Perhaps this will be an angle worth checking up on as the off-season progresses. The Royals, Blue Jays, and Mets sure hope so. But, after 13 years on the job, Theo Epstein is probably pretty tired of this by now.