Jeff Sullivan FanGraphs Chat — 10/28/16

October 28, 2016

9:03	Jeff Sullivan: Hello friends

9:03	Jeff Sullivan: Let’s Friday baseball chat!

9:03	Bork: Hello, friend!

9:03	Jeff Sullivan: Hello friend

9:03	Q-Ball: Weather forecast tonight is for 30-40 mph gusts blowing out to left. Which team does that favor more, and why?

9:04	Jeff Sullivan: So, yeah, this is expected to be a huge variable going in. Crazy wind blowing out, for two somewhat contact-oriented pitchers

9:05

Jeff Sullivan: My hunch — this is unstudied — is it slightly favors Cleveland? Tomlin, already, is homer-prone. Hendricks’ whole game is reducing quality contact. But if you’re allowed to succeed with worse contact against Hendricks tonight, then that could even things out. Even ordinary fly balls begin to look threatening

9:06	Jeff Sullivan: Now, on the other hand, Hendricks gets a few more strikeouts, and a few more grounders. But then, I think Francona is already prepared to remove Tomlin earlier

9:06	Maikel: Does a Matz/Wheeler for Ender Inciarte trade make sense for both teams?

9:06	Jeff Sullivan: Do you mean both pitchers? Don’t think the Mets would give up both pitchers

9:07	Oneear: So Cleveland hits breaking balls. You think Hendricks limits how many he throws?

9:07	Jeff Sullivan: Hendricks is already hardly a breaking-ball pitcher. You’re going to see a lot of his changeup, and that four-seamer in on lefties under the hands

9:08	CamdenWarehouse: Did you see the number of comments Dave’s article about the watchability of Game 2?

9:09	Jeff Sullivan: There’s probably a little lesson in here. Dave was writing from the perspective of someone without a rooting interest. No fan of a team involved would pretty much ever be bored by a championship game. But for the more removed observers, that was pretty dull

9:09	Jeff Sullivan: Think of how Devils fans felt about their quality hockey in the 90s, vs. how other people felt about the Devils

9:10	Q-Ball: Given Tomlin’s reverse splits and the projected wind out to LF, should the Cubs start Soler in RF instead of Heyward? What would you do?

9:10	Jeff Sullivan: I still like Heyward enough. I trust his defense more with an unpredictable wind environment, and in theory you could get some of his suboptimal contact to turn into productive results

9:10	Jeff Sullivan: Interestingly, I just looked it up and Soler himself has no platoon split. Odd!

9:11	Five tool: Who are some recent pitchers that have had 80(or pretty close to) grade command? Cliff Lee is a guy who comes to mind,IMO.

9:11	Jeff Sullivan: Cliff Lee, absolutely

9:11	Jeff Sullivan: Obviously Greg Maddux if you want to count him

9:11	Jeff Sullivan: Hendricks might be a 70 who flashes 80 at his best

9:12	Jeff Sullivan: Look for anyone who’s successful without clearly dominant weapons. It’s going to be because of command. Like, even Mark Buehrle probably had outstanding location, relative to his peers

9:12	Tim: Will the Twins be the AL Central team in the World Series next year?

9:12	Jeff Sullivan: A big part of me hopes so, but, no, absolutely not, never under any circumstances

9:13

JT: Jeff, what do you think of the trend of the past few years of teams regressing sabremetrically in regards to thinking the outfield isnt hard to play. Lots of teams, even smart ones, seemingly think its a good idea to arbitrarily stick guys in the outfield….or sign them to 9 figure contracts to play outfield

9:14

Jeff Sullivan: I think everyone understands defense is hard, but I think we’re starting to see some positional barriers break down. With defenders already shifting around so much, specific positions are losing their unique “identities” and players are becoming more familiar with fielding in a number of areas. I believe we’re entering an age of increased player versatility

9:14	Jeff Sullivan: The Cubs would be out on the forefront of that

9:15	Reginald: Pirate fan here. What do you think of offering the Mets Andrew McCutchen for Familia, Gsellman and a low level prospect? Is that too much? not Enough?

9:15	Jeff Sullivan: Not nearly enough

9:15	Jeff Sullivan: Are you sure you’re a Pirates fan?

9:15	Jeff Sullivan: Last year be damned, we currently have McCutchen projected to be worth 3.5 – 4 wins again

9:16	Zonk: Is there another park in baseball with such extreme weather effects as Wrigley? When it’s cold and the wind is blowing in, it’s an extreme pitcher’s park. On nights like tonight, it might play like Coors East. Thoughts?

9:16	Jeff Sullivan: I can’t think of a comparable ballpark. Every park, of course, can play differently, but Wrigley is so extreme. Incidentally, Progressive Field can play mighty hitter-friendly when it has its own strong wind patterns

9:17	Jeff Sullivan: There have also been some crazy wind-aided dingers in Detroit that I recall

9:17	Tim: Is game 3 a must win for the Cubs?

9:17	Jeff Sullivan: No, not at all

9:17	Jeff Sullivan: There’s no such thing as a must-win in a non-elimination game, and even if the Cubs were to lose, they’d still be the favorites over the remaining four games combined

9:18	Ian: Could you see the Braves making a big move or two? Eno and others seem to think Coppy is really gonna push.

9:18	Jeff Sullivan: Would something like signing Matt Wieters count?

9:18	Jeff Sullivan: I think they’re definitely going to work to try to solidify the 2017 roster. I’m not expecting, like, Chris Sale or anything

9:19	Matt: Jeff, how likely is this opening day lineup for the Cubs next year: C – Contreras, IB – Rizzo, 2B – Baez, SS – Russell, 3B – Bryant, RF – Zobrist, CF – Heyward, LF – Schwarber?

9:19	Jeff Sullivan: Very likely?

9:19	Tim: Who is the best player in the World Series?

9:19	Jeff Sullivan: Bryant, then Lindor

9:21	Q-Ball: Are you tired of the Hendricks-Maddux comparisons? I am a Cub fan, and Kyle is good, but he ain’t no Maddux. Is there a better comp we can force everyone to use?

9:21	Jeff Sullivan: I don’t know. Brad Radke?

9:22	Jeff Sullivan: Maddux, obviously, is as lofty as it gets. And his whole thing is that he did it for like 15 or 20 years.

9:22	Jeff Sullivan: And a younger Maddux had a good fastball, relative to the league average. Hendricks, not so much

9:23	Jeff Sullivan: Radke was very good, with a lower margin of error that I think is better-suited for Hendricks. And Radke had a 40-WAR career!

9:23	CamdenWarehouse: What is the chat lineup for the weekend?

9:23	Jeff Sullivan: Give me a second to check…

9:25	Jeff Sullivan: Eno and Ryan tonight, Neil and (unannounced) tomorrow, Carson and Eric on Sunday

9:25	Jeff Sullivan: Dave and Eno would handle a potential Game 6, and it looks like I’d be up for a Game 7

9:25	YankeeFan1: It’s clear we love Folty from Atlanta and asked for him in return for McCann, but even I know that is crazy. What else would we have to add to acquire Folty? 20 mil cash, Clint Frazier and another low level prospect?

9:26	Jeff Sullivan: To be honest, I just don’t know why Foltynewicz would be available this offseason. The Braves think they’re better than they are and he’s one of the only half-decently reliable starters on the roster. Just seemingly not a great roster match

9:26	Rexdale: Is cold windy weather more advantageous to a groundball or flyball pitcher?

9:27	Jeff Sullivan: Fly balls would be more susceptible to environmental effects. Wind would do obvious things, depending on how it’s blowing. And baseballs don’t go as far when it’s chilly

9:27	weezy: What got you into writing? And what got you into writing about baseball?

9:28

Jeff Sullivan: I have no idea what got me into writing, but those turn-of-the-millennium Baseball Prospectus annuals got me really fascinated by baseball. I wasn’t a huge fan of the game growing up and I didn’t play Little League, but the analysis strongly appealed to me, and those player captions allowed me to realize there was also space to try to inject some humor

9:29	Jeff Sullivan: I think what got me into writing was when I was a college freshman I didn’t have much of anything better to do

9:29	Guest: Which position player on each team would be the best pitcher?

9:30	Jeff Sullivan: I’m going to guess Baez and Lindor, but I’m a little surprised Michael Martinez hasn’t already pitched somewhere in some blowout

9:30	Jeff Sullivan: He just seems like the type to have already made three or four appearances

9:31	weezy: Is this the busiest time of the year for these chats?

9:31	Jeff Sullivan: Nah. The busiest periods are around the winter meetings and the trade deadline

9:31	Jeff Sullivan: Right now, you’ve got fans of two teams who are really super excited about baseball. Everyone else is in offseason mode but the rumors haven’t kicked up yet. People love love love to think about transactions

9:32	Jeff Sullivan: The playoffs are always a little funny. Site traffic doesn’t actually spike because so many baseball fans have essentially moved on. And yet we still have to work longer hours just because, duh, it’s the playoffs. There’s a separation between resource utilization and reward

9:33	Matt: Should Soler or Heyward get the start tonight? Soler tempting against a HR prone strike thrower

9:33	Jeff Sullivan: I remain a Heyward fan and something of a Soler skeptic but the win-expectancy difference here would be on the scale of like a percentage point or two

9:34	chris: Is Santana in left field destined to blow up on Francona?

9:34	Jeff Sullivan: Probably not — he might get just two or three baseballs hit his way, and the bulk of fieldable baseballs are either routine outs or guaranteed hits. Obviously, there’s real downside, but I think Francona is hoping for early offense that allows him to then replace Santana with a glove

9:34	Jeff Sullivan: Not with a literal glove, although even that might be better in left

9:35	Pretty Tony: JD Martinez for Inciarte sound like the start of a deal?

9:35	Jeff Sullivan: No reason for the Braves to look for a one-year player

9:35	Tim: Why do they have a 2-3-2 format in baseball?

9:35	Jeff Sullivan: I don’t know, but I like it better than 2-2-1-1-1

9:36	Jeff Sullivan: All those off days were stupid

9:36	Robin: What are your thoughts on Paxton and Walker? Should they keep both, trade both, or trade one? What should the M’s target as a return?

9:36	Jeff Sullivan: Do not trade. I love Paxton and I think a healthy version is destined for big things. Walker, I do not love, but you have to at least let him try to rebound from what injuries did to his second half

9:36	Jeff Sullivan: The organization has very little present rotation depth anyway

9:37	Zonk: Eric’s first prospect list on the D-Backs was really strong. Obviously, the D-Backs system is really weak. How much of the blame for that should we put on Dave Stewart?

9:38

Jeff Sullivan: There’s no overlooking what he did with just the Miller trade alone, subtracting from the very top of the system, but the system has recently graduated a handful of big-league players, and you also have to fault the actual player-development people if you see a weakness. Stewart would ultimately be responsible for the rest of the organization but it’s been about a lot more than one dude who made a few bad trades

9:38	Leone for Third: Does Vogelbach take over the M’s 1B job (at least against RHP)?Is his bat/defense good enough for that role?

9:38	Jeff Sullivan: They’re going to look for someone better but he will be a platoon option

9:38	Dan: Carlos Santana in 2014 (his only non-C/1B defensive innings) was the worst 3B by UZR / 150

9:38	Jeff Sullivan: And I don’t think anyone was surprised

9:39	Hank: What would my Cardinals have to surrender to acquire Ender Inciarte? Carlos Martinez and a prospect? Ender does have 4 years of control left.

9:39	Jeff Sullivan: I wouldn’t be shocked if you could get him for Martinez alone

9:40	Jeff Sullivan: Question is, would the Cardinals want to do that? But the Braves would love to add that sort of arm and Inciarte has probably peaked

9:40	Tim: Should Chapman start using his slider/changeup more or is his fastball that good that he doesn’t need another pitch?

9:41	Jeff Sullivan: He’s not exactly hurting for success, but overall in the playoffs he’s at 89% fastballs. I’ll guess he’s “optimal” around 75-80%

9:41	Jeff Sullivan: But of course it depends on whether he has any sort of feel for those other pitches. The colder it is, the less likely that is

9:41	Jeff Sullivan: His fastball, though, is the best pitch in the world

9:42

v2micca: Why does everyone assume the Braves need to trade Inciarte? He’s young, cheap, under team control for another 3 years, and its not like the Braves have a lineup of Outfield prospects knocking on the door to take his place. Unless someone is offering crazy trade deals, I say ride out his 3 fWAR per season production.

9:43	Jeff Sullivan: They don’t need to trade him, but they could trade him, and he’d have market value, and they’ve got Mallex Smith around in the pipeline.

9:43	Scott: T/F: Indians win each game started by Klubot and Cubs win each game started by human pitchers for the Tribe

9:43	Jeff Sullivan: F

9:44	Kevin: What would you ask for in return for Ender if your Coppy? We could cash in on his high value and insert Mallex Smith in CF?

9:44	Jeff Sullivan: Cost-controlled big-league starting pitcher

9:44	Jeff Sullivan: Of course, if I were in charge, I’d love Inciarte, but I recognize he’s probably at his best when the Braves are not. I doubt he’s going to improve

9:45	Mick D: If Texas uses Choo as their DH, will that be enough for him to play 140 games? Or is he a hbp injury or pulled calf muscle waiting to happen?

9:45	Jeff Sullivan: He played a full season as recently as 2015

9:45	Tanner: Hey Jeff, thanks for the chat. Crazy question, but what, if anything, could MLB and baseball do to close the gap/overtake football in popularity?

9:46

Jeff Sullivan: Well football has already been doing plenty to damage itself. But it’s starting from such an advantageous position that it would take a long time for the sports to narrow the gap. Baseball does need to find ways to better market its young superstars. I saw yesterday that Ken Griffey Jr. is on the cover of MLB: The Show 2017. I know that’s the game’s own decision, but, like, what the hell?

9:47	Jeff Sullivan: I want Mike Trout’s face to be plastered everywhere. Everybody needs to know that Mike Trout is the very best.

9:47	buh: What do you expect out of Carter Capps post Tommy John?

9:47	Jeff Sullivan: Strikeouts, walks, and eventually another injury

9:47	weezy: I am hearing lots of complaints from friends that are fans of both teams about how the announcers “sound like the [opposing team]’s broadcast.” Is this inevitable?

9:47	Jeff Sullivan: Yes

9:48	Dustin: True or False: Every fan base in America is convinced Joe Buck hates its team.

9:48	Jeff Sullivan: Some fan bases have never had a game covered by Joe Buck? Like, I bet Rockies fans don’t really mind him.

9:49	Mike: Sale and Abreu for Benintendi, Moncada, Swihart, Kopech… who says no?

9:49	Jeff Sullivan: Don’t see the Red Sox doing that

9:49	Eli: Apparently NYM have some money to spend this offseason, but probably not for Cespedes assuming he gets 5yrs in the 30/yr range. How else do you see them spending it? JBats make sense?

9:49	Jeff Sullivan: Bautista would be a huge defensive liability

9:51	Jeff Sullivan: I wonder if they’d be interested in making a big run at Justin Turner

9:51	v2micca: So, I’m looking at Joey Votto’s season splits and it is just absurd. Was he nursing an injury the first three months?

9:51	Jeff Sullivan: No, he wasn’t hurt

9:51	Jeff Sullivan: He was just in a bit of a mechanical rut there. He clearly worked himself out of it

9:52	Guest: Thoughts on Carlos Santana in LF?

9:53	Jeff Sullivan: The way I’m currently thinking about it: Tomlin is more of a fly-ball pitcher than line-drive pitcher. Like, the damaging hits are homers, not doubles, and Santana’s not bringing any homers back. So I’ve talked myself into this, for five or six innings. At that point you re-evaluate

9:53	Dock Ellis: Rick Ankiel had -80 command right?

9:53	Jeff Sullivan: 🙁

9:53	Jaack: Fun Fact: Since 1947, three of the top five career triples hitters are named Willie.

9:53	Jeff Sullivan: Willie is a good triples name

9:54	Dubslow: Where can we find playoff stats? The usual leaderboards here just show regular season

9:54	Jeff Sullivan: Unfortunately we don’t have a playoff leaderboard. We do have playoff stats on player pages, if you look closely. There’s a little gray “postseason” button http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=4940&position=OF

9:54	Jeff Sullivan: For playoff statistical leaderboards, you can get a lot of the basic stuff on MLB.com pretty quick

9:55

True story: Last night I had a vivid dream. A dream in which you, Jeff Sullivan, and your girlfriend (known only to me in concept through reading your chats), were guests in my home. I was excited for the chance to tell you face to face how I love not only your writing, but the way you expose your thought process, which I find calming and meditative and reflective of my own method of analysis. We talked at length about being INTPs. I’m a happily married woman, don’t worry, Jeff. But all except the circumstance is true even to my waking self.

9:56	Jeff Sullivan: I appreciate the sentiment behind this message and I only wish I could know what we looked like

9:56	Jeff Sullivan: I am eight and a half feet tall and one of my arms is a leg

9:56	Jose: If the bases are loaded and u ground out into the double play but the runner on third and second score do u get a RBI for the guy at second?

9:56	Jeff Sullivan: I…don’t know. Give me one second!

9:57	Jeff Sullivan: I have to assume no. The rules seem pretty explicit

9:58	v2micca: Jason Heyward has posted a 200+ ISO in only one season of his career. Given the elite power he flashed as a rookie, what is the most likely explanation for his power never developing?

9:59	Jeff Sullivan: His swing has always been complicated, and I have a hunch that it’s simply too level. He’s never been much of an air-ball hitter, even though he clearly has the strength to succeed as such

9:59	Jeff Sullivan: I definitely do not think we’ve seen the last of Jason Heyward as an above-average bat