Jeff Sullivan FanGraphs Chat — 11/9/18

Jeff Sullivan: Hello friends

Jeff Sullivan: Welcome to Friday baseball chat

Jeff Sullivan: I made it on time to this one! Take that, haters

Xolo: Fangraphs has the Padres projected at 77 wins with fairly pedestrian Steamer numbers for all the big rookies. With that in mind, wouldn’t it make sense for them to go after a guy like Corbin now and see how it goes?

Jeff Sullivan: I do think the Padres are likely to target at least one interesting and talented pitcher, but I don’t think they’ll want to pay what Corbin will command

Jeff Sullivan: If you figure Corbin will get an offer from, say, the Yankees, the Padres would have to offer more on top of that. The Padres can’t compete with the Yankees’ budget. I’m looking for San Diego to target a cheaper starter, with a couple years of team control remaining

Jeff Sullivan: I’ll also point out, more generally: every year it seems like Steamer is fairly conservative with its projections. The Padres are at 77-85 right now, but that’s also third-worst in the National League

Jeff Sullivan: It’s not a good or even average team (yet)

Hae-Lo Dee: How far is Dipoto going to go down the path to rebuild?

Jeff Sullivan: I think the Zunino trade gives you a clue. Traded Zunino for a major-league player

Jeff Sullivan: Paxton is next and I hear that could happen any day now at any moment. It’s going to be a pretty big return for Seattle, but I expect it will feature major-league players as well

Jeff Sullivan: Beyond that, I don’t think it’ll get more dramatic. Haniger will presumably stay. Ditto Diaz. Might well see one of Gordon/Segura traded, but neither would be a blockbuster

A Rays fan: I’m upset about this trade with the Mariners. I don’t like that they already settled for Zunino as their catcher this early in the offseason with so many other options, lots of whom I would’ve preferred. I could almost get behind it if Zunino were a potential long-term catcher, but he’s pretty close to free agency. Even if they didn’t want to pay the price for Realmuto, I would’ve preferred trading for Gomes, and there are plenty of competent free agent catchers as well. Sure, Zunino will run into one once in a while, but Mallex seems like a high price to pay for two years of a catcher who had a .259 OBP and strikes out 99% of the time. Can you make me less upset?

Jeff Sullivan: I already wrote up the near-full extent of my thoughts. Smith got better in 2018, but he’s also a strong negative regression candidate. Zunino got worse in 2018, but he’s also a strong *positive* regression candidate. Heredia isn’t much of a hitter, but he’s a great defender, and his handedness helps out the Rays’ current roster

Jeff Sullivan: I understand that taking Zunino effectively closes the door to other guys, but Zunino was the player most available right now, and there’s some value in answering the big roster question this early in the offseason. And given Zunino’s roots in Florida, it’s by no means out of the question that he could be extended beyond the two years he has left

Jeff Sullivan: Don’t think it’s a lopsided trade in either direction, and Jake Fraley is an interesting get for Seattle. But if I’m the Rays, I’m happy

Cito’s Mustache: How concerned should we be about Syndergaard’s decline in K rate? A quick look at Brooks shows a lower whiff% on all of his pitches except the changeup in 2018 vs 2016. Why is he missing fewer bats?

Jeff Sullivan: Syndergaard, 2018: 24% K%
Syndergaard, career: 27% K%

Jeff Sullivan: Syndergaard, 2018: 13.6% whiff%
Syndergaard, career: 13.4% whiff%

Jeff Sullivan: It’s not like Syndergaard completely lost his ability to miss bats, in other words. His strikeout rate did decline this past year from where it began, but given the health issues he dealt with, I think it can be forgiven. The stuff is still present. The bat-missing ability is still present

Jeff Sullivan: When one watches Syndergaard, I think it’s easy to conclude he should strike out almost everybody. The K% will never match the *potential* dominance. But I’m in no way worried about his ability

Jeff Sullivan: Always going to be about staying on the mound, for him

Ross: So the Rays have already cleared a spot for Meadows in their outfield and gotten their catcher. What else would you like to see them do this offseason?

Jeff Sullivan: Really compelling spot for someone like Nelson Cruz or Josh Donaldson on a high-salary, short-term contract

Jeff Sullivan: And they could probably stand to add at least one high-leverage reliever. Someone to replace Sergio Romo

Bjogc: Why are you punctual today?

Jeff Sullivan: Podcast today is after the chat, instead of before

Jeff Sullivan: Good question!

Hae-Lo Dee: If the Mariners are ‘retooling’, they’re getting rid of Diaz, right? Do you place much stock in the idea that he’ll return more at the deadline?

Jeff Sullivan: I don’t think they’re trading Diaz, full stop

Jeff Sullivan: Too important to their success

Jeff Sullivan: Now, *should* they trade Diaz? I think there’s a great case to be made that the answer is yes. But I don’t expect it, not this offseason

Scotty B: if last year’s offseason is analogous to a sailboat regatta, and if this year’s offseason appears to be a submarine race, what do you anticipate next year’s offseason to look like

Jeff Sullivan: A raucous cowboy jamboree, with everyone giddily firing bullets into the night

Jack: With the Mariners apparently ready to withdraw themselves, the race for the AL’s second Wild Card next year will consist of the Athletics, Rays, and…?

Jeff Sullivan: I think the Angels will end up a dark-horse candidate, and then the Mariners and Twins will cling to distant hope

Jeff Sullivan: Depending on what the Blue Jays do, and depending on what Vlad does when he arrives in the middle of April, there’s a non-zero chance there as well

Hae-Lo Dee: What are the odds of Machado to the Yankees? It feels inevitable.

Jeff Sullivan: I have them under 50%

Jeff Sullivan: But also the highest of all teams

Chase : I’m torn on Ramos for the Angels (there’s interest there according to the LA Times). He’s had durability issues and Pujols/Ohtani are going to take on most of the DH responsibility, but Ohtani SHOULD be back to being a part-time starter and part-time DH in 2020 and I’d be surprised if Pujols was still on the roster by then, could open things up to help keep him fresh

Jeff Sullivan: The Angels need a catcher. Ramos is a catcher. Even with the Rays last season, he DH’d only five times. I wouldn’t worry about the flexibility too much. When Ramos needs a breather, he just gets the day off

El Guapo: Am I the only person who liked when team were abbreviated NYA/NYN, CHA/CHN, etc?

Jeff Sullivan: No. And it’s a source of frequent disagreement between websites

Jeff Sullivan: There’s also, say, Kansas City. Are they KC, or are they KCR? The world might never settle

Jeff Sullivan: (I prefer KCR. I like three-letter consistency)

Shameless Texas Homer: So this might be a crazy/homer take but: The Texas Rangers should sign Bryce Harper. He can transition to 1B (Guzman isn’t the long term solution there), he can be the face of the franchise now that Beltre is likely retiring, can play with buddy Gallo, no state income tax, new stadium next year, they have money. Plausible?

Jeff Sullivan: Every single team in baseball should have some amount of interest in signing Bryce Harper (or Manny Machado). The problem for the Rangers is, they’re not good, and they don’t project to be good for a little while. Harper’s going to sign a super-long contract, and nothing will be knowable by the end, but remember that Harper has never seen an LCS in his life. Why wouldn’t he want to sign with a winner?

Jeff Sullivan: The Rangers could come over the top, of course, and offer like $40 million more than the next-highest bid. But then you’re talking about a potential huge overpay, when you’re more of a mid-budget operation

Mike: Hello jeff.  Do not die.

Jeff Sullivan: In little danger at the moment!

Monsignor Martinez: What player do you think is the best 1-season wonder?  That is, a player who had one crazy good year, but had a pretty mundane career?

Jeff Sullivan: Hold on, I can do this with math!

Jeff Sullivan: Give me one minute

Jeff Sullivan: Well, probably two minutes

Jeff Sullivan: So I don’t know how far back you’d like me to go

Jeff Sullivan: And I recognize this delayed the chat

Jeff Sullivan: I also don’t know where the cutoff ought to be! But let’s look at, say, position players who had a 5+ WAR season

Jeff Sullivan: Cito Gaston was once worth 5.5 WAR. His career WAR was 0.9

Jeff Sullivan: For all I know Max Muncy might end up a great candidate here

Jeff Sullivan: Garrett Atkins had a 5.4-WAR season, and a career WAR of 6.5

Jeff Sullivan: On the pitching side, Mike Norris had a 6-WAR season, and a career WAR of 8.5

Jeff Sullivan: He’s the most interesting more recent candidate

Jeff Sullivan: I apologize for how long all of this took but I thought it was worthwhile to explore

Bill James: Joc Pederson for Dellin Betances. Who says no?

Jeff Sullivan: Yankees. Don’t think Pederson’s is that difficult a skillset to find

Jeff Sullivan: While Pederson has two years left and Betances has one, Betances is a special reliever, and Pederson is a platoon bat

Hae-Lo Dee: Who’s the starting catcher on opening day for the M’s?

Jeff Sullivan: Early guesses: Russell Martin, Welington Castillo, or Caleb Joseph

Jeff Sullivan: I wonder if they might have some way to get Kevin Plawecki. But I keep thinking about Martin, who’s coming up to the end of his contract, and who wouldn’t cost much beyond salary

Ozzie Ozzie Albies Free: World Chess Championships!! Woo!!! If people think baseball is slow paced….

Jeff Sullivan: It’s really the commercial breaks that make professional chess unwatchable

Jeff Sullivan: That’s why I always prefer to watch amateur chess

Jeff Sullivan: Not beholden to Big Corporate

Ryan: fun fact, DJ LeMahieu is 32ndin average EV but signficantly below average in barrels, hes in the same neighborhood as A/EV neighborhood as Mike Trout, Marcus Thames and others….wonder if he could be convinced of a swing change

Jeff Sullivan: Was thinking about this very thing just the other day

Jeff Sullivan: Now, LeMahieu is no youngster, and the other thing about him is that he’s a true spray hitter. If he wanted to change, he’d have to change pretty dramatically, and he’s been successful with the spray approach before

Jeff Sullivan: But you can look at LeMahieu and imagine the next Daniel Murphy. There’s something there, untapped

Hae-Lo Dee: With the M’s path, do you think they’ll finally give Vogelbach a chance to get 600 abs?

Jeff Sullivan: No. Maybe 300

Ryan: The White Sox are evidently planning to bid for Harper.  Given his youth and the length of his expected contract, he would obviously still be around and playing at a high level when the White Sox are competitive; but do you think Harper has the patience to seriously consider a team like the White Sox in the midst of a long rebuild?

Jeff Sullivan: Same answer as for the Rangers above. Makes plenty of sense for the White Sox to like the idea of Harper. Makes less sense for Harper to like the idea of the White Sox

Jeff Sullivan: It would just…require a whole series of what I consider unlikely decisions

IsIt2020Yet?: Some Pirates fans are kicking around the idea that the Archer and Kela trades mean Huntington’s prospect hording days are over and the Pirates are going to push some chips in during the Marte/Archer window. You buy that or think they’re simply trying to look like they’re trying?

Jeff Sullivan: I don’t think it’s going to be a trend

Jeff Sullivan: Besides, Archer was acquired with 3+ years left. Kela was acquired with 2+ years left. They’re affordable, cost-controlled players. Aggressive moves for the Pirates to make, and it looks like they misread their situation at the time, but the Pirates can’t afford to do many moves like that if they want to hang around for the foreseeable future

Jeff Sullivan: They’ll always have the kind of budget that requires them to have cheap reinforcements at the ready

Kristen: SD apparently looking for 3B’man while TEX needs a C.  Profar for Hedges w/other pieces thrown in?

Jeff Sullivan: Considering Profar has two years left while Hedges has four, I think the Padres would be hoping for greater upside. Plus, Profar isn’t the greatest defender

Jeff Sullivan: Hedges made some changes that appeared to pay off at the plate down the stretch. Blend intriguing offense with proven high-level defense and I’m also not sure the Padres would want to move Hedges now, with Mejia still a question mark

Jeff Sullivan: I think Hedges was more available in the middle of last season than he is today

Trent: My team is too cheap to sign Harper but needs an outfielder.  Which team should I be rooting for to sign Harper so that the trade market for OFers expands:  the Dodgers, perhaps to make Puig or Pederson available?  The Yankees, perhaps to make Hicks available?  Someone else?

Jeff Sullivan: Don’t think Hicks would become available, regardless

Jeff Sullivan: Dodgers would make some sense here, sure

Jeff Sullivan: But you could just go trade for one of the Padres’ guys

Ben: Farhan Zaidi!

Jeff Sullivan: Good hire

Mattyb: Do the Mariners move Dee Gordon now or let him try to rebuild his trade value and move him at the deadline?

Jeff Sullivan: I think one of Gordon/Segura is gone

Jeff Sullivan: And Segura is two years younger

Kiermaier’s Piercing Green Eyes: Rays offseason now: sign Cruz or Donaldson and a starting pitcher, trade Cron for pennies on the dollar, consolidate talent to fix the 40 man crunch?

Jeff Sullivan: Something like that. Of course, would have to reevaluate if Cruz/Donaldson don’t want to go there

Jeff Sullivan: Keep thinking Cruz would fit well in Houston too. Tampa Bay is no given

Jeff Sullivan: But Donaldson would be fun, if he’d accept a big one-year offer, or a slightly less big two-year offer

Muesli: I don’t think a Sonny Gray bounceback is really worth all that much, especially with the bidding war that apparently’s going on, but I seem to be alone in that opinion. He looks like he peaked years ago and is an OK MOR arm at best.

Jeff Sullivan: It’s one year of control, so already, any trade price would be relatively modest

Jeff Sullivan: 94 FIP-, 97 xFIP-

Jeff Sullivan: When you look at Gray, you can say, all right, the stuff seems to still be there, and he generates interesting spin. Maybe some innovative player-development team could squeeze more out of him, like we’ve seen some teams do. But then you have to remember that the Yankees are one of the most analytically progressive organizations in either league. They couldn’t get the most out of Gray, so it’s no guarantee that, say, the Astros could

Jeff Sullivan: Long and short of it: I agree with you, Muesli

stever20: Not sure how much you can talk about it yet- but how surprised were you that Sale finished outside the top 3 for the AL Cy Young?

Jeff Sullivan: Not that surprised. Would be a lot to ask of the voting pool to select someone who didn’t throw 162 innings

Tim: I’m assuming you’ve seen the Sens Uber video? You gotta give them this, they’re not a dull team

Jeff Sullivan: I’ve gotten a kick out of like 100% of current and former NHLers all rallying to their defense, saying this kind of stuff happens constantly

Jeff Sullivan: Don’t think it was that bad, but the next day’s practice still must’ve been super awkward

Ozzie Ozzie Albies Free: So for some reason we don’t get too much Phillies talk outside of Manny/Harper hype. But can I get your thoughts on their rebuild? To be successful you have to hit on your high draft picks. So far, none of them have really excited me and our top prospects are pitchers which of course TINSTAAPP.  So even if Bryce or Manny sign, I don’t see where the auxiliary support really comes from. If that’s true, where would the Phils go from there? Love you Jeff!

Jeff Sullivan: I don’t think the Phillies are on a *bad* course — I think some other rebuilders have just lifted the expectations. I like the Phillies’ rotation. I like a lot of their bullpen, I like Hernandez, Herrera’s fun, Hoskins is obviously good

Jeff Sullivan: So much of the perception comes down to the fact that Crawford hasn’t broken through yet, and Kingery’s rookie season was a nightmare

Jeff Sullivan: The Phillies can be blamed for forcing Kingery to learn another position on the fly. They can be blamed for forcing Hoskins into the outfield. The defense is the Phillies’ fault, and it needs to be fixed. But plop one star player into the middle of that lineup and a wild-card contender comes together awful fast

Aramis Ramirez: How screwed are the Cubs?

Jeff Sullivan: Not very screwed. They’re pretty good right now, and they generate crazy revenue

Jeff Sullivan: Obviously they’re in a worse position right now than they thought they’d end up in, and they haven’t turned into a dynasty, but most teams in baseball would be envious of the Cubs, despite everything

Bradley: What kind of starter fits the Padres mold? Jose Urena? Dylan Bundy? Daniel Norris?

Jeff Sullivan: Bundy and Norris especially, I think

Lawrence: The Depth Chart WAR totals have the Angels as the 5th best team in the majors.  Do you buy them as a playoff team despite their obvious holes in the rotation and questions marks at, e.g., catcher?

Jeff Sullivan: No. I think, right now, they have too many holes, and the pitching staff is an enormous vulnerability

Jeff Sullivan: But the Angels of the moment should be somewhere in the vicinity of a .500 team. If they have the flexibility to upgrade, they can move further up

#hugwatch in tokyo: I want Marlins to trade Realmuto while he is playing as a member of MLB All-Star team in Japan.
Love to see him hugging with teammates and changing uniform during the game.
Do you think Rockies can make that happen without giving up Rodgers?

Jeff Sullivan: I do think there’s a path to the Rockies getting Realmuto without losing Rodgers, but it would involve a subtraction or two from the big-league roster

Jeff Sullivan: That’s always a little uncomfortable, because then you’re subtracting at the same time you’re adding

The Amish: Padres looking for a cheaper starter with a couple years of team control remaining? James Paxton maybe? What would the Padres offer look like for him?

Jeff Sullivan: I think Paxton would be a good fit in San Diego, but given that the Padres aren’t good quite yet, I imagine the Mariners will land a bigger haul from somebody else. The Padres are less incentivized to pay

Jeff Sullivan: Everyone talking to the Padres should be asking about Chris Paddack

Jeff Sullivan: The Mariners would want to ask about Chris Paddack

Brody Man: Suarez for Syndergaard, who says no?

Jeff Sullivan: As in Eugenio Suarez?

Jeff Sullivan: Reds aren’t doing that

James: Any buzz on a Jose Martinez trade? Would you rather have him or Nelson Cruz at DH the next couple years?

Jeff Sullivan: I think Cruz in 2019, and then maybe Martinez in 2020. Haven’t heard much Martinez buzz yet but him moving would hardly be a surprise. Someone who’s also very Rays-y

Jeff Sullivan: And Mariners-y, if they have anything to offer

Kiermaier’s Piercing Green Eyes: Surprised that Zunino was traded so quickly? There are still more teams needing catchers than there are Ramos, Grandal, and Realmuto.

Jeff Sullivan: The Mariners traded for Ryon Healy in the middle of last November

Jeff Sullivan: They made the Segura/Walker/Haniger/Marte trade the previous November

Jeff Sullivan: They made the Brad Miller/etc trade with the Rays early the *previous* November

Jeff Sullivan: Dipoto loves to move fast. It’s established pattern at this point

Russell – UK Indians Fan: What are your thoughts on having an automated strike zone?
How big an impact do you think it would be on catchers as framing wouldn’t matter anymore?

Jeff Sullivan: I think an automated strike zone is inevitable, and more good than bad, but a big part of me will still miss having human umpires make the calls. Maybe that’s just the writer in me

Jeff Sullivan: But there will be no excuse for baseball not having an auto-zone once the technology exists and is sufficiently improved. It’s the 21st century

Jeff Sullivan: Framing will still matter to the extent that catchers will need to receive well to control wild pitches and the running game, etc. It’ll make the job a little easier, but I don’t think framing is something catchers worry about in the way they worry about game-calling and hitting and so forth

Matt W: I’m trying not to be defeatist only a few weeks in to his tenure, but after GM Brodie made both his comments about payroll and his comments about Tebow, it’s just hard for me to wrap my head around how this all turns out okay.

Jeff Sullivan: Just remind yourself that he doesn’t really know what he’s doing yet

Jeff Sullivan: I mean, that’s bad!

Jeff Sullivan: But he’s not even close yet to a fully-formed baseball executive. As he evolves, so will his evaluations and opinions

Casey : Being the Orioles are in rebuild mode, do they attempt to find trade partners for Trumbo, Cashner, Cobb, etc? If so, what teams would be interested? And what could the O’s get in return?

Jeff Sullivan: Whole bunch of nothing

Jeff Sullivan: Precious little of value left on their roster outside of guys like Bundy and Givens

Jeff Sullivan: Plus they need to find someone who can actually make these decisions first

Jeff Sullivan: The GM meetings are wrapping up, and the Orioles don’t have a GM

IsIt2020Yet?: If you _do_ think the Pirates are going for it for a few years, do you think Josh Bell and Kevin Newman could net them Goldschmidt’s last season?

Jeff Sullivan: Unlikely

A Hater: Whose needle in 2019 is moved most by signing Harper or Machado?

Jeff Sullivan: Among realistic suitors, you mean?

Jeff Sullivan: Phillies might be the clear No. 1 in these terms

Jeff Sullivan: Cardinals too, if they get involved

Jeff Sullivan: There are a bunch of probable playoff teams who would get better. But teams like the Phillies and Cardinals could *become* probable playoff teams

Brian: Can the Padres afford to give up the kind of haul it would take to bring a guy like Suarez into the fold, given his cheap team friendly contract?

Jeff Sullivan: With the Padres’ farm system, they could afford just about any player in baseball

Jeff Sullivan: But that being said, I’m starting to get the sense the Reds don’t want to prolong this rebuild

Jeff Sullivan: I think they actually want to start adding, themselves

Jeff Sullivan: Saw an article yesterday linking the Reds and Wade Miley. That was kind of a bummer

Scuffy Mcgee: Is Daniel Murphy a little under appreciated right now in free agent talks? The guy can hit a baseball pretty well

Jeff Sullivan: He’s less interesting if you start to look at him as a first baseman. But he’s still good, and he’ll get an everyday role

Brian: If the Dodgers do nothing this offseason, are they still projected to win the NL West?

Jeff Sullivan: Yeah, unless the Rockies do something dramatic

Jeff Sullivan: The Dodgers already kept Kershaw, and they get to effectively replace Machado with Seager. They’re very good

Elliot: When was the last time the annual Winter Meetings were important/relevant? I feel like even just a few years back we all eagerly awaited it because there usually was a bunch of activity that would come from it. Now I think we don’t expect any major business to be transacted.

Jeff Sullivan: Just two years ago, there was the Chris Sale trade, and the Adam Eaton trade, and the Travis Shaw trade, and the Rich Hill signing, and the Mark Melancon signing, and the Wade Davis trade

Jeff Sullivan: Last year was slower, but that was more of an anomaly

Kiner’s Disembodied Hands: Think the Pirates might make a play for Sonny Gray?  It seems like he might be a good fit in Pittsburgh.

Jeff Sullivan: Probably yes

Hae-Lo Dee: How excited should M’s fans be for Mallex Smith?

Jeff Sullivan: Ought to be a very fun player, but it’s hard not to be spooked by what happened to Dee Gordon’s numbers

Jeff Sullivan: Speed is electrifying, though. And unlike Gordon, Smith can draw a walk

Scuffy Mcgee: Does free agency drag again this year if Machado and Harper don’t sign deals until late

Jeff Sullivan: Maybe a little bit, but those players are well removed from the others, out in their own tier. Lots of other, unrelated moves to be made

Jeff Sullivan: But it’s pretty obvious the trade market is ahead of the FA market right now

Poised: JD Martinez winning two silver sluggers is pretty dumb, do you agree?

Jeff Sullivan: Yes

Jeff Sullivan: But I also don’t care

Yankees: Likelier: Re-sign Happ + trade for Indians/Mariners SP or Happ + Corbin or trade + Corbin?

Jeff Sullivan: Guess I’ll go with trade + Corbin

Jaff: What do you think would be a fair return for Bumgarner?

Jeff Sullivan: Less than you want me to say. Wouldn’t be cheap by any means, but it’s one year, at $12 million, for a pitcher whose peripherals have gone in the wrong direction. Feels like a July move to me

Lark: In last year’s FA contract draft, ten out of sixteen players you and Ben named signed smaller contract than MLBTR’s prediction, and nine of them signed in February or March,
while out of six players who signed same/over the prediction, five signed in December or January.
In the latest EW episode, you guys predicted “under” for eleven of sixteen, which includes all of MLBTR’s top five free agents.
So, assuming you and Ben aren’t terribly wrong, the slow offseason again?  or expect something different?

Jeff Sullivan: I don’t think it’ll be so slow. I just think a part of the reason will be because expectations will have shifted. Last year is fresh in everyone’s memories, and when players/agents expect less, it’s easier to satisfy them

Jeff Sullivan: All right, I need to get rolling. Podcast to record

Jeff Sullivan: So thank you everybody for hanging out, and I’m sorry for what I didn’t or couldn’t address. We’ll do it again next week at the same time, and until then, be well and have great days