Jeff Sullivan FanGraphs Chat — 11/12/13

November 12, 2013

9:00	Jeff Sullivan: Hey guys, this is a baseball chat

9:00	Jeff Sullivan: In this chat we will talk about baseball, for what usually ends up being something like 110 minutes even though that is too long

9:01	Jeff Sullivan: Maybe today I’ll shoot for 90!

9:02	Jeff Sullivan: Hold on one second, having trouble with the CiL classic window…

9:03	Jeff Sullivan: ugh okay finally, geez

9:03	Comment From Guest Do you believe in the “Coors Field Hangover”? And do you think it may be incorporated into statistics in the future?

9:04	Jeff Sullivan: I’m pretty convinced — when I saw the evidence some years ago, it was fairly damning. Would like to see it repeated to see if the same conclusions are reached. I don’t think this is the sort of thing that’ll end up in the statistics — I think it’ll be a separate consideration

9:05	Jeff Sullivan: PITCHf/x might one day allow us to improve our Coors Field pitching park factors if we can narrow down effects on trajectories/spin

9:05	Comment From Steve Hi Jeff! Is there a difference between RA9 and ERA? Seems like all the stats guys talk RA9… they sound the same to me..

9:05	Jeff Sullivan: RA9 is all runs, ERA is earned runs

9:05	Comment From Eno Montoya Do agents have stat guys? Will they have access to Fieldf/x?

9:05	Jeff Sullivan: Some agents do but FIELDf/x doesn’t really exist

9:06	Jeff Sullivan: It’s been attempted, but at this point it’s a lot more theory than reality

9:06	Comment From Marty Jeff, considering all the content you’ve put out recently, care to comment on the rumors that you are indeed a machine, or at least a cyborg?

9:06	Jeff Sullivan: Cyborgs aren’t habitually late for everything

9:07	Comment From Los Should the Tigers trade Max Scherzer or Rick Porcello? (Feel free to plug your article…free advertisement)

9:07	Jeff Sullivan: I’ll do exactly that! http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/to-trade-an-ace-or-to-trade-rick-porcello/

9:08

Jeff Sullivan: If there does exist out there a Scherzer blockbuster package, then the Tigers should highly consider it. Porcello isn’t THAT much worse. But I don’t think a team is going to pay out the ass for one year of a good starter, and the Tigers are a win-now team, the sort of team that wants a guy like Scherzer in the first place

9:08	Comment From Seymour Byrd is now Philthy!

9:08	Jeff Sullivan: 2/$16 million. I still don’t quite know what to make of Marlon Byrd, but I’m just pleased the Phillies said no to $50+ million for Nelson Cruz

9:08	Jeff Sullivan: that was always going to be the nightmare outcome

9:10	Comment From NoBattingGloves Teveras for Profar striaght up… who says no?

9:10	Jeff Sullivan: My sense is that the Rangers do. Profar’s younger and had a more complete 2013

9:10	Comment From Jake Where do you stand on what the Cardinals should do at SS? Sell a big chunk of the farm for Tulo or go for one of the cheaper options? (Kozma is not an option)

9:11	Jeff Sullivan: I don’t think I like what they’d have to pay to land Tulowitzki. I’m intrigued by the idea of their going hard after Andrus. I think they could do just fine settling for a Drew or Ramirez

9:11	Jeff Sullivan: There are spots right now for al ot of their young players, so shedding some of them for a shortstop makes the team worse while making the team better

9:12	Comment From pau Happ, Arencibia, Gose, Osuna for Jason Castro?

9:12	Jeff Sullivan: That feels light

9:13	Comment From EGL Who gets your vote for the unluckiest franchise of the last decade ?

9:13	Jeff Sullivan: Oof. A’s have been unluckiest in the playoffs, Rangers have been unlucky to lose some World Series…

9:13	Jeff Sullivan: …Jays/O’s/Rays have been unlucky to be trapped with the Sox and Yankees…

9:14	Jeff Sullivan: Indians have had smarts and some unfortunate execution

9:14	Jeff Sullivan: Indians? That’s a tough one.

9:14	Comment From Marty Considering Corbin’s one awesome pitch, and other fringe pitches, do you think he’s destined to the bullpen long-term?

9:15	Jeff Sullivan: Joe Saunders has made 221 career starts and he doesn’t have anything as dominant as Corbin’s slider. Corbin’s a starter for a long time

9:15	Comment From Evan Will Adams, Miller, and Maness plus a kicker like Mike O’Neill be enough for STL to get Tulo?

9:16	Jeff Sullivan: It should be, but I don’t know that it would be, given what Tulo means to his current franchise

9:16	Jeff Sullivan: I think they could very well put too high a price tag on him to move him

9:16	Comment From DNA What’s your guess on the Marlon Byrd deal Dollars?

9:16	Jeff Sullivan: Don’t have to guess! $16 million, 2 years

9:16	Comment From George I think I saw that Denard Span was available. Could you comment on whether you think a Reds-Nationals trade involving Brandon Phillips and Span could work. My thought was that Billy Hamilton could play second (I’ve seen reports that the Reds brass likes him there).

9:18	Jeff Sullivan: Reds need to sweeten the package — Span’s better and cheaper, and Phillips has money coming for a while

9:18	Jeff Sullivan: As a core of a deal, it makes some sense, but it’s far from complete

9:19

Comment From person hscer
Suppose you’re on a game show, and you’re given the choice of three doors: Behind one door is a car; behind the others, goats. You pick a door, say No. 1, and the host, who knows what’s behind the doors, opens another door, say No. 3, which has a goat. He then says to you, “Do you want to pick door No. 2?” Is it to your advantage to switch your choice?

9:20	Jeff Sullivan: The correct answer to this one is yes, right?

9:20	Jeff Sullivan: Used to know it and understand it. That was years ago. I’ve since forgotten how the probability works out but I think I remember the punchline

9:22	Comment From rayn been having a debate with a friend…who has more value over next 5-7 years(accounting for ceiling and floor) between freddie freeman and Wil Meyers? How close is the decision, and what is deciding factor?

9:22	Jeff Sullivan: I think it’ll be Myers by a little bit, because I think he’s going to hit for a bunch more power

9:23	Jeff Sullivan: I usually don’t bet on first basemen

9:23	Comment From person hscer If there’s a question more popular than the single best pitching stat, it’s fieldfx. Every week you and Dave have to tell people it doesn’t exactly exist

9:24	Jeff Sullivan: It was very disappointing to me when I learned about that, considering what’s going on these days in the NBA. FIELDf/x is a mess. But at least HITf/x is real. HITf/x is pretty neat. But FIELDf/x means we’re going to be using a lot more UZR for a long long time

9:25	Comment From Steve If you were the Angels, which 2-3 SP would you pursue??

9:25	Jeff Sullivan: Didn’t they just sign Chris Volstad? Problems addressed!

9:27

Jeff Sullivan: As with all teams, I think they should be in pretty hard on Tanaka if they can afford it. Rick Porcello wouldn’t cost them a bunch, and he could be a better investment than Jason Vargas. It might be possible to pry away Felix Doubront. They could probably turn Bourjos into a damn talented young #2/#3

9:27	Comment From RotoLando Thanks for the chat, Jeff. Do you keep tabs on international prospects at all? I’m trying to find info on Alfredo Desplaigne since the WBC.

9:28	Jeff Sullivan: Good luck. Even if you try to stay close to the Cuban guys, you’re not going to learn very much. I believe he’s outstanding, but I haven’t heard anything about his suddenly becoming available

9:28	Comment From Nico Jed Lowrie probably wouldn’t cost too much for the Cardinals. Is he worth a look and what might the A’s want?

9:28	Jeff Sullivan: They can get someone good for cheaper. Don’t think Oakland’s in a hurry there

9:29	Comment From person hscer is someone going to say yes to $50+ million for Nelson Cruz?

9:29	Jeff Sullivan: The most likely team just signed Marlon Byrd instead. I think it’s possible, but only if the market ends up being super inflated. Teams aren’t dumb anymore, and Cruz was also just suspended

9:29	Comment From Guest Case to be made that 2/$16 is a reasonable deal for the Phillies but would have been an awful deal for the Pirates? I think so — Polanco + smaller market + 2016 widest window.

9:30	Jeff Sullivan: The Pirates say they don’t have a whole lot of money, so I don’t think it would’ve been right for them to give eight figures to a mysterious Marlon Byrd. Save the money for where it can make a real substantial impact

9:31	Comment From Guest Hey, how come FG and BR disagree on how many career PA Kenny Lofton had?

9:31	Jeff Sullivan: Time to play detective!

9:31	Jeff Sullivan: At issue is 1999. FG says 560, BR says 561

9:33	Jeff Sullivan: I am going through the game logs right now, by the way

9:33	Jeff Sullivan: one minute

9:35	Jeff Sullivan: Well this is really annoying

9:38	Jeff Sullivan: And the answer is:

9:38	Jeff Sullivan: They don’t disagree.

9:39	Jeff Sullivan: Add up the PA in Lofton’s 1999 FG game long, and you get 561, agreeing with BR.

9:39	Jeff Sullivan: Lofton’s player page shows 560, and that just isn’t correct.

9:40	Jeff Sullivan: So the issue is in between the game log and the player page itself. What a worthwhile use of my time, and your time 🙁

9:40	Jeff Sullivan: so sorry you guys

9:40	Comment From semperty Do you see a way that we can take the intangibles catchers provide (i.e. controlling a staff) and make them tangible someday?

9:41

Jeff Sullivan: I think eventually we might be able to do something with game-calling. Maybe end up with a much better, more complex, more accurate sort of catcher ERA. You do, though, get into kind of the same problem you get into with trying to evaluate managers. There’ll be a future in seeing how new pitchers adjust to a catcher, as opposed to incumbent pitchers

9:42	Jeff Sullivan: Let’s say Catcher A makes the average pitcher 5% better. Let’s say Catcher A caught Pitcher X, but didn’t catch Pitcher Y, who was signed as a free agent. Pitcher X will already have Catcher A influence in his numbers, so Pitcher Y would be the one to watch.

9:42	Jeff Sullivan: But players will affect different players in different ways so, ultimately, good luck, researchers.

9:44	Comment From Daniel Carroll What does HITf/x provide? Bat speed and ball trajectory off the bat? What else?

9:44	Jeff Sullivan: http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/the-start-of-hit-fx/

9:44

Jeff Sullivan: Cory also explained that we can expect the roll out of Hit-f/x, a system similar to Pitch-f/x that would use the technology already in place to track the initial batted ball data. Trajectory, angle, velocity, etc. measurements would all be recorded but the technology would be limited to just the initial batted ball data. The Hit-f/x system would not be able to track the entire trajectory of batted balls

9:44	Jeff Sullivan: That was some years ago. There might have been improvements since

9:46	Jeff Sullivan: Here’s some research by Mike Fast: http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=15532 http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=15562

9:46	Jeff Sullivan: Interesting to see Carlos Gomez look so bad, in 2008

9:48	Comment From John If you’re Dan O’Dowd what is the minimum package you would accept from the Cardinals for Tulowitzki?

9:50	Jeff Sullivan: Probably something similar to the Adams/Miller/2 others proposal somewhere above

9:50	Jeff Sullivan: But I don’t think the Rockies would actually go for that. I think they’ll be too hung up over Tulowitzki’s name and ability and they’ll be looking for a giant blockbuster

9:50	Comment From Bret Should signing Byrd, who is baseball old, effect the age of targets the Phillies seek for the rest of their vacancies (a catcher and starter)? Would, say, Ruiz and Arroyo – two names linked to them – be less appealing today than they were yesterday?

9:51	Jeff Sullivan: No, I don’t think there’s any relationship

9:51

Comment From Dan Calleja
(Tigers fan here) If I could find a way not to trade either of them I would do it. I just don’t think that we’d get enough back for what we’d be giving away in both cases. Scherzer is good for a win-now team and theres no bigger win-now team than Detroit, and Porcello is finally turning the corner and learning how to constantly pound the strikezone, but because of his past inconsistencies heis value will get lowballed to death and it just doesn’t justify it IMO. The Tigers appear to be approaching a deal with Joe Nathan to close, and if we can sign one more FA bullpen arm I would be comfortable with the situation. Having Castellanos train with Cabrera during the offseason and pack on muscle and then sending him an invite to Spring Training with a change to win a platoon spot in LF with Dirks is the route I think the Tigers should take.

9:52	Jeff Sullivan: For one thing, teams aren’t dumb — they’re not going to lowball on Porcello because they think he isn’t good. They know how he improved and they know what he’s capable of

9:53	Jeff Sullivan: Issue is, while Porcello has made himself better, he’s also not going to be cheap the next two years, which erases a lot of his surplus value. So with Smyly available as a cheap starter, the Tigers might be able to use that money better

9:53	Jeff Sullivan: I don’t know how the Porcello market looks, but it makes a lot of sense to send him packing for some kind of help at 2B or LF

9:53

Comment From Gila Monster
Do we often under estimate the mental side of playing professional sports? Dealing with defeat,sometimes not being good enough,traveling all the time,dealing with criticism…etc. Are you surprised we don’t have more Khalil Greenes or Dontrelle Willis guys? Or do you believe they get weeded out at a earlier level?

9:54

Jeff Sullivan: I think the big leagues are selective for guys who have demonstrated a sustained ability to be able to handle the mental strains of the game. It’s not perfect, obviously, and within the big-league population there will be best guys and worst guys, but it selects against “weakness”. If you can’t take it, you probably won’t survive the minors and thrive in them too

9:55	Comment From Guest Camden Chat suggested a trade of Porcello for Jim Johnson – fair?

9:55	Jeff Sullivan: Tigers can do better

9:55	Comment From RA Rowe Do you have any insight into whether Matt Williams is a disciple of Kirk Gibson, or if he has a more modern mentality?

9:56	Jeff Sullivan: http://www.washingtonpost.com/sports/nationals/nationals-manager-matt-williams-is-a-hire-who-values-defense-and-finding-advantages/2013/11/01/1e71bedc-4343-11e3-8b74-d89d714ca4dd_story.html

9:57	Jeff Sullivan: “Oh, and he’s hired a seventh coach who’ll be in charge of radical defensive positioning, advance scouting and aligning pitching theory with defensive patterns. Williams mentioned that two Diamondbacks just won Gold Gloves this week. (No Nats did.) Did somebody say defense? ”

9:57	Comment From semperty What do you think the Cardinals would have to give up for Andrus?

9:58	Jeff Sullivan: I wonder if Miller might do it

9:58	Comment From Aceathon I want the Rangers to trade an extra middle infielder just so I don’t have to hear any more ridiculously stupid homer trade ideas. Is this a normal feeling?

9:58	Jeff Sullivan: Resignation! Yes

9:58	Comment From Los What direction do you think the Pirates will go this offseason? Any chance they go after Tulo or Stanton? I feel like they have some overrated pieces in the minors.