Jeff Sullivan FanGraphs Chat — 11/20/15

November 20, 2015

9:06	Jeff Sullivan: Baseball chat

9:06	Jeff Sullivan: With you!

9:07	Comment From MSW mmmmmmm content

9:07	Jeff Sullivan: Later than scheduled but earlier than normal!

9:07	Comment From Archie After basically trashing they guy, what can the Marlins realistically expect for Ozuna? Any teams in particular make sense?

9:08	Jeff Sullivan: It’s funny — that leaked recording turned out to be a hoax, right? But it’s not like it didn’t still capture how the Marlins apparently feel about the guy

9:09	Jeff Sullivan: But realistically, the market isn’t determined by how the Marlins feel — it’s determined by how everybody else feels, and Ozuna’s a powerful 25-year-old with a bunch of team control left and a big age-23 season

9:10	Jeff Sullivan: Most teams in baseball would make sense here. Affordable, long-term piece with projection left? No one wouldn’t be interested, save for teams with full outfields. The Marlins should be able to pry a big-league-ready player or two

9:11	Comment From I am the Walrus Rumor has S.Castro for Gardner deal being discussed. Wouldn’t it make more sense for the Cubs for go Castro for Hicks + something and save the money for FA starter or bullpen help?

9:11	Jeff Sullivan: The Yankees aren’t looking to take money on in the form of Starlin Castro if they don’t need to

9:12	Comment From Ryan Does the Castro/Gardner rumor make sense for both sides? Don’t see the fit for the Cubs if Gardner can’t play CF anymore.

9:13

Jeff Sullivan: Very early in the offseason, and Gardner could probably handle at least one more year of CF if he had to. But I think this is just one of those things that gets discussed without getting deeper than that. Honestly I think the Yankees might be happy to keep what they have for 2B since they’ve loved Ackley for years

9:13	Comment From The Dude Does it make baseball sense for the Royals to resign Gordon, given the variety of needs they have this offseason?

9:14

Jeff Sullivan: It always makes baseball sense to add or keep a really good player provided the cost is acceptable. So, as usual, that’ll be the key, but if the Royals end up re-signing Gordon or Zobrist, that would be perfectly fine. They’re built to win now, obviously, and those are win-now players

9:15	Comment From Mike Massaroli Jeff – what do you think are realistic targets for the Mets this offseason?

9:16	Jeff Sullivan: If they’re serious about keeping all the pitchers, then that Parra rumor makes sense to share time with Lagares. And some kind of shortstop — if not Desmond, I could see them thinking about Castro or even taking a shot on Goins

9:16	Jeff Sullivan: Alternatively, Chris Taylor doesn’t have a job, although he’s also looked like crap

9:18	Comment From I am the Walrus What is Plouffe’s trade value? Would 2 prospects 7-12 range on a average MLB farm system be too much?

9:18	Jeff Sullivan: Seems like a slightly above-average player, a couple more years of control that should cost around $18-20 million. So he’s clearly not worth any elite prospects, but yeah, I think your range is about right

9:19	Jeff Sullivan: Maybe even a couple lower-top-100 pitchers

9:20	Comment From Derek Carr Could the A’s be in on Ozuna?

9:20	Jeff Sullivan: Absolutely

9:21	Jeff Sullivan: Ozuna’s sort of an ideal player to target if you’re caught in between contention and rebuilding and you don’t have a lot of money

9:23	Comment From Striker Marcell Ozuna for Erik Johnson, who hangs up?

9:23	Jeff Sullivan: I suspect the Marlins could do better than that

9:23	Comment From @outfieldgrass24 From one Jeff to another, do love or loathe the offseason?

9:24	Jeff Sullivan: It gets dreary, but it’s fun to see players shuffle around, and the offseason is when hockey is

9:25

Comment From Q-Ball
Help me understand the Yankees and Andrew Miller. He is one-year into a 3-year FA deal. He had nearly an identical year to before he signed, other than 36 saves. Yet, the Yankees are shopping him like he has surplus value. How does he have surplus value? Increase in reliever prices? Yankees were just smart when they signed him? He’s worth more now because he is a “closer”? Yankees paid the draft pick, you don’t have to?

9:26	Jeff Sullivan: Miller before was coming off one year of insane performance. Now he’s doubled down, showing it wasn’t a fluke, and reliever prices are also seemingly on the rise. Nothing wrong with examining the market, especially given what Kimbrel just fetched

9:27	Jeff Sullivan: I don’t think the Yankees are looking to trade Miller — he’s a huge part of that ballclub.

9:27	Comment From Derek Carr If the Marlins want a young starter, how about building on a Hahn/Ozuna deal? Hahn’s good, but the injury risk might change his value.

9:27	Jeff Sullivan: Given what the Marlins just experienced, they probably wouldn’t want to add a talented pitcher with a huge injury question mark. Not that you can ever avoid injury risk in a young pitcher, but they wouldn’t want to be so…I don’t know, injury-forward?

9:27	Comment From Chris Will the Cardinals sign a top free agent pitcher this offseason?

9:28	Jeff Sullivan: Not a top one, I don’t think

9:30

Comment From Derek
You’re late for the chat, but you’re on time in our hearts. No one at FG has answered this yet, will you be the first? If the Rangers dangled Profar, what should they reasonably expect to get in return? Also, on the flip side, what should teams reasonably offer to obtain said Profar?

9:31

Jeff Sullivan: The problem is pretty evident — he hasn’t played in the majors (or much of anywhere) in two years, and when he was in the majors, he wasn’t good. Every team wants to know about the shoulder, and about his timing, and everything, and it just doesn’t seem like now would be the time for the Rangers to move him, given the upside of letting him establish himself in 2016 somehow

9:32

Jeff Sullivan: It helps that Profar has played recently and hit pretty well — that answers some questions — but I think the Rangers have a lot more to gain by letting Profar get regular playing time, and little to lose if he struggles. Right now he couldn’t be the centerpiece of a blockbuster unless another team is feeling awful aggressive

9:33	Comment From Anonymous Coward Miller + Bethancourt + Sanchez for Puig, who says no?

9:33	Jeff Sullivan: Dodgers

9:33	Comment From @outfieldgrass24 If you ran the Mariners, what are five realistic moves you’d make this winter?

9:33	Jeff Sullivan: Well they’ve already made a few, adding Martin and re-signing Gutierrez

9:33	Jeff Sullivan: I’d re-sign Iwakuma, soon

9:34	Jeff Sullivan: I’d add some kind of second-tier or third-tier catcher, like Iannetta

9:34	Jeff Sullivan: and then I’d go RF hunting so I could add depth and keep Cruz mostly at DH

9:35	Jeff Sullivan: Like others, I’m intrigued by the idea of Gerardo Parra

9:35	Comment From Ryan Who wins the Jose Fernandez sweepstakes?

9:35	Jeff Sullivan: Jose Fernandez

9:36	Jeff Sullivan: if moved, I’ll guess Red Sox or Astros?

9:36	Comment From Lars I’ve just been assuming that Marte is the SS next year. Might Dipoto think differently and target someone whose defense he is higher on, or is that a safe bet?

9:36	Jeff Sullivan: I think it’s Marte unless someone falls in Dipoto’s lap

9:37	Comment From Paul The A’s were after K-Rod. Any chance they make a move for someone like Melancon, Koji, or Giles?

9:38	Jeff Sullivan: Don’t think Koji gets traded, and the A’s don’t want to pay the premium price for Giles. Melancon is a maybe, but perhaps still too expensive. What helps with Rodriguez is he also has a fairly inexpensive 2017 team option

9:38	Comment From The Dude Is there a more Jeff Loria move than trading a quality, team controlled CF because he doesn’t like him?

9:38	Jeff Sullivan: In fairness, Ozuna has also underachieved

9:39	Jeff Sullivan: so he’s not totally blameless. A lot of people would be frustrated by a player going from 4 WAR to 1

9:39	Comment From Aron Who would win: a team of six Trouts (including pitcher and catcher), or a team of nine Bumgarners?

9:39	Jeff Sullivan: Nine Bumgarners

9:40	Comment From Kim Aoki a potential fit for the Mariners in RF?

9:40	Jeff Sullivan: it’s possible, but they probably prefer better defense, and a little more health certainty

9:41	Comment From MSW Who are some CF options that can platoon with Lagares and fit in to the Mets’ umm… budget?

9:42	Jeff Sullivan: Parra, Venable, maybe a trade for Blackmon, a buy-low on Fuld

9:45

Comment From Ben
When a trade involves a PTBNL, do the teams know specifically which player? Or is it just decided at a later date? Seems risky to execute a trade when pay off the return hasn’t been decided yet. What recourse would a team have if the trading team refused to give them the player they wanted later?

9:46	Jeff Sullivan: Used to be sometimes the teams would know, but the rules would prohibit a player specifically being traded for a year after he was drafted

9:46	Jeff Sullivan: The rules there were changed on account of the weird Trea Turner stuff last year

9:47	Jeff Sullivan: But also sometimes a PTBNL hasn’t been figured out, specifically, and teams just agree to a pool of available players to be settled down the road. Allows for extra scouting, or for teams to see how a player returns from injury

9:47	Jeff Sullivan: Every so often you get a conditional PTBNL — player depends on how a player traded in the other direction performs

9:47	Comment From Dicke Hupen Kartoffelsalat Why is everyone at Fangraphs a Mariners fan?

9:48	Jeff Sullivan: Dave and I came on board as Mariners fans. The other regulars aren’t Mariners fans. And I’m not even sure Dave and I are Mariners fans anymore

9:48	Comment From Beep boop beep Zunino? Is he ruined? Could STL be a place to revive his career?

9:48	Jeff Sullivan: They’re working on him in instructional ball. So we’ll see if he can do anything as a Mariner in a new player development system. They have done him few favors to this point

9:49	Comment From Zonk Your pick for NL Cy Young? Would all of the top 3 have won the Cy Young in the AL?

9:50

Jeff Sullivan: Can’t pick. It’s impossible. They were all equally good. It’s stupid to have just one award. I mean, it’s not stupid to have just one award, but in a case like this it creates an artificial tier. There is no tier. They were all the same. This sounds like a cop-out answer but I just don’t see the point in claiming one guy was better than the other two. I’d be lying

9:50	Jeff Sullivan: I think Kershaw is the best pitcher in the league, if that helps

9:50	Comment From Hermano I’m writing from Ecuador. There are a lot of volcanoes here. I’m looking at one right now.

9:50	Jeff Sullivan: Be careful, and don’t hang out in river valleys

9:51	Comment From Zonk What baseball player that you have met stands out to you as a particularly cool/humble guy?

9:51	Jeff Sullivan: Michael Saunders

9:52	Comment From Joanne Is there any way to trade Kemp to an AL team without including Ross? Indians, Orioles or Rangers?

9:54	Jeff Sullivan: Have to be prepared to take bad money back. You’re looking at 4/$72 million, taking into account the Dodgers payments, and Kemp is 31 with bad hips and 0.4 WAR a year ago

9:55	Jeff Sullivan: Kemp isn’t much more desirable than Hanley Ramirez. A little less baggage, but also a bigger remaining guarantee

9:56

Comment From Bill
This is a bit of a nitpick, but why are zone things and heat maps always shown from the catcher’s perspective? Considering that the way almost everyone watches baseball is on television, from the pitcher’s perspective, I find it much more intuitive to have them displayed the opposite way. I have to perform all these mental rotations every time there’s an article involving the strike zone. Any thoughts on this? Has anybody else mentioned this?

9:57

Jeff Sullivan: See, that’s interesting, because I’m the opposite — I always expect the catcher’s perspective. It’s how PITCHf/x charts have long been shown, and it’s how Gameday works, so I think it’s just trying to be consistent. But FWIW, I believe our FanGraphs plots give you the option to look from the catcher’s or pitcher’s perspective

9:58	Comment From Nik What kind of return should the Phils expect for Ken Giles? It should be pretty massive, right?

9:58	Jeff Sullivan: Five years of an affordable young closer? He’s not quite as good as Kimbrel, but the upside is there, so you’d be looking at a haul. I think the Red Sox overpaid, but I imagine the Phillies could get something in the next neighborhood

9:59	Comment From Barnard Jerry DiPoto has made his desire for acquiring athletic OF’s rather clear. Do you think it is possible to use available data to quantify athleticism, or is this just code speak for fast guys who are good at defense?

9:59	Jeff Sullivan: He wants fast guys who are good at defense. But more the latter than the former, and we have some numbers that might indicate strong defensive players who don’t possess blazing footspeed.