Jeff Sullivan FanGraphs Chat — 11/20/15

9:06
Jeff Sullivan: Baseball chat

9:06
Jeff Sullivan: With you!

9:07
Comment From MSW
mmmmmmm content

9:07
Jeff Sullivan: Later than scheduled but earlier than normal!

9:07
Comment From Archie
After basically trashing they guy, what can the Marlins realistically expect for Ozuna? Any teams in particular make sense?

9:08
Jeff Sullivan: It’s funny — that leaked recording turned out to be a hoax, right? But it’s not like it didn’t still capture how the Marlins apparently feel about the guy

9:09
Jeff Sullivan: But realistically, the market isn’t determined by how the Marlins feel — it’s determined by how everybody else feels, and Ozuna’s a powerful 25-year-old with a bunch of team control left and a big age-23 season

9:10
Jeff Sullivan: *Most* teams in baseball would make sense here. Affordable, long-term piece with projection left? No one wouldn’t be interested, save for teams with full outfields. The Marlins should be able to pry a big-league-ready player or two

9:11
Comment From I am the Walrus
Rumor has S.Castro for Gardner deal being discussed. Wouldn’t it make more sense for the Cubs for go Castro for Hicks + something and save the money for FA starter or bullpen help?

9:11
Jeff Sullivan: The Yankees aren’t looking to take money on in the form of Starlin Castro if they don’t need to

9:12
Comment From Ryan
Does the Castro/Gardner rumor make sense for both sides? Don’t see the fit for the Cubs if Gardner can’t play CF anymore.

9:13
Jeff Sullivan: Very early in the offseason, and Gardner could probably handle at least one more year of CF if he had to. But I think this is just one of those things that gets discussed without getting deeper than that. Honestly I think the Yankees might be happy to keep what they have for 2B since they’ve loved Ackley for years

9:13
Comment From The Dude
Does it make baseball sense for the Royals to resign Gordon, given the variety of needs they have this offseason?

9:14
Jeff Sullivan: It always makes baseball sense to add or keep a really good player provided the cost is acceptable. So, as usual, that’ll be the key, but if the Royals end up re-signing Gordon or Zobrist, that would be perfectly fine. They’re built to win now, obviously, and those are win-now players

9:15
Comment From Mike Massaroli
Jeff – what do you think are realistic targets for the Mets this offseason?

9:16
Jeff Sullivan: If they’re serious about keeping all the pitchers, then that Parra rumor makes sense to share time with Lagares. And some kind of shortstop — if not Desmond, I could see them thinking about Castro or even taking a shot on Goins

9:16
Jeff Sullivan: Alternatively, Chris Taylor doesn’t have a job, although he’s also looked like crap

9:18
Comment From I am the Walrus
What is Plouffe’s trade value? Would 2 prospects 7-12 range on a average MLB farm system be too much?

9:18
Jeff Sullivan: Seems like a slightly above-average player, a couple more years of control that should cost around $18-20 million. So he’s clearly not worth any elite prospects, but yeah, I think your range is about right

9:19
Jeff Sullivan: Maybe even a couple lower-top-100 pitchers

9:20
Comment From Derek Carr
Could the A’s be in on Ozuna?

9:20
Jeff Sullivan: Absolutely

9:21
Jeff Sullivan: Ozuna’s sort of an ideal player to target if you’re caught in between contention and rebuilding and you don’t have a lot of money

9:23
Comment From Striker
Marcell Ozuna for Erik Johnson, who hangs up?

9:23
Jeff Sullivan: I suspect the Marlins could do better than that

9:23
Comment From @outfieldgrass24
From one Jeff to another, do love or loathe the offseason?

9:24
Jeff Sullivan: It gets dreary, but it’s fun to see players shuffle around, and the offseason is when hockey is

9:25
Comment From Q-Ball
Help me understand the Yankees and Andrew Miller. He is one-year into a 3-year FA deal. He had nearly an identical year to before he signed, other than 36 saves. Yet, the Yankees are shopping him like he has surplus value. How does he have surplus value? Increase in reliever prices? Yankees were just smart when they signed him? He’s worth more now because he is a “closer”? Yankees paid the draft pick, you don’t have to?

9:26
Jeff Sullivan: Miller before was coming off one year of insane performance. Now he’s doubled down, showing it wasn’t a fluke, and reliever prices are also seemingly on the rise. Nothing wrong with examining the market, especially given what Kimbrel just fetched

9:27
Jeff Sullivan: I don’t think the Yankees are *looking* to trade Miller — he’s a huge part of that ballclub.

9:27
Comment From Derek Carr
If the Marlins want a young starter, how about building on a Hahn/Ozuna deal? Hahn’s good, but the injury risk might change his value.

9:27
Jeff Sullivan: Given what the Marlins just experienced, they probably wouldn’t want to add a talented pitcher with a huge injury question mark. Not that you can ever avoid injury risk in a young pitcher, but they wouldn’t want to be so…I don’t know, injury-forward?

9:27
Comment From Chris
Will the Cardinals sign a top free agent pitcher this offseason?

9:28
Jeff Sullivan: Not a top one, I don’t think

9:30
Comment From Derek
You’re late for the chat, but you’re on time in our hearts. No one at FG has answered this yet, will you be the first? If the Rangers dangled Profar, what should they reasonably expect to get in return? Also, on the flip side, what should teams reasonably offer to obtain said Profar?

9:31
Jeff Sullivan: The problem is pretty evident — he hasn’t played in the majors (or much of anywhere) in two years, and when he was in the majors, he wasn’t good. Every team wants to know about the shoulder, and about his timing, and everything, and it just doesn’t seem like now would be the time for the Rangers to move him, given the upside of letting him establish himself in 2016 somehow

9:32
Jeff Sullivan: It helps that Profar has played recently and hit pretty well — that answers some questions — but I think the Rangers have a lot more to gain by letting Profar get regular playing time, and little to lose if he struggles. Right now he couldn’t be the centerpiece of a blockbuster unless another team is feeling awful aggressive

9:33
Comment From Anonymous Coward
Miller + Bethancourt + Sanchez for Puig, who says no?

9:33
Jeff Sullivan: Dodgers

9:33
Comment From @outfieldgrass24
If you ran the Mariners, what are five realistic moves you’d make this winter?

9:33
Jeff Sullivan: Well they’ve already made a few, adding Martin and re-signing Gutierrez

9:33
Jeff Sullivan: I’d re-sign Iwakuma, soon

9:34
Jeff Sullivan: I’d add some kind of second-tier or third-tier catcher, like Iannetta

9:34
Jeff Sullivan: and then I’d go RF hunting so I could add depth and keep Cruz mostly at DH

9:35
Jeff Sullivan: Like others, I’m intrigued by the idea of Gerardo Parra

9:35
Comment From Ryan
Who wins the Jose Fernandez sweepstakes?

9:35
Jeff Sullivan: Jose Fernandez

9:36
Jeff Sullivan: if moved, I’ll guess Red Sox or Astros?

9:36
Comment From Lars
I’ve just been assuming that Marte is the SS next year. Might Dipoto think differently and target someone whose defense he is higher on, or is that a safe bet?

9:36
Jeff Sullivan: I think it’s Marte unless someone falls in Dipoto’s lap

9:37
Comment From Paul
The A’s were after K-Rod. Any chance they make a move for someone like Melancon, Koji, or Giles?

9:38
Jeff Sullivan: Don’t think Koji gets traded, and the A’s don’t want to pay the premium price for Giles. Melancon is a maybe, but perhaps still too expensive. What helps with Rodriguez is he also has a fairly inexpensive 2017 team option

9:38
Comment From The Dude
Is there a more Jeff Loria move than trading a quality, team controlled CF because he doesn’t like him?

9:38
Jeff Sullivan: In fairness, Ozuna has also underachieved

9:39
Jeff Sullivan: so he’s not totally blameless. A lot of people would be frustrated by a player going from 4 WAR to 1

9:39
Comment From Aron
Who would win: a team of six Trouts (including pitcher and catcher), or a team of nine Bumgarners?

9:39
Jeff Sullivan: Nine Bumgarners

9:40
Comment From Kim
Aoki a potential fit for the Mariners in RF?

9:40
Jeff Sullivan: it’s possible, but they probably prefer better defense, and a little more health certainty

9:41
Comment From MSW
Who are some CF options that can platoon with Lagares and fit in to the Mets’ umm… budget?

9:42
Jeff Sullivan: Parra, Venable, maybe a trade for Blackmon, a buy-low on Fuld

9:45
Comment From Ben
When a trade involves a PTBNL, do the teams know specifically which player? Or is it just decided at a later date? Seems risky to execute a trade when pay off the return hasn’t been decided yet. What recourse would a team have if the trading team refused to give them the player they wanted later?

9:46
Jeff Sullivan: Used to be sometimes the teams would know, but the rules would prohibit a player specifically being traded for a year after he was drafted

9:46
Jeff Sullivan: The rules there were changed on account of the weird Trea Turner stuff last year

9:47
Jeff Sullivan: But also sometimes a PTBNL *hasn’t* been figured out, specifically, and teams just agree to a pool of available players to be settled down the road. Allows for extra scouting, or for teams to see how a player returns from injury

9:47
Jeff Sullivan: Every so often you get a conditional PTBNL — player depends on how a player traded in the other direction performs

9:47
Comment From Dicke Hupen Kartoffelsalat
Why is everyone at Fangraphs a Mariners fan?

9:48
Jeff Sullivan: Dave and I came on board as Mariners fans. The other regulars aren’t Mariners fans. And I’m not even sure Dave and I are Mariners fans anymore

9:48
Comment From Beep boop beep
Zunino? Is he ruined? Could STL be a place to revive his career?

9:48
Jeff Sullivan: They’re working on him in instructional ball. So we’ll see if he can do anything as a Mariner in a new player development system. They have done him few favors to this point

9:49
Comment From Zonk
Your pick for NL Cy Young? Would all of the top 3 have won the Cy Young in the AL?

9:50
Jeff Sullivan: Can’t pick. It’s impossible. They were all equally good. It’s stupid to have just one award. I mean, it’s not stupid to have just one award, but in a case like this it creates an artificial tier. There is no tier. They were all the same. This sounds like a cop-out answer but I just don’t see the point in claiming one guy was better than the other two. I’d be lying

9:50
Jeff Sullivan: I think Kershaw is the best pitcher in the league, if that helps

9:50
Comment From Hermano
I’m writing from Ecuador. There are a lot of volcanoes here. I’m looking at one right now.

9:50
Jeff Sullivan: Be careful, and don’t hang out in river valleys

9:51
Comment From Zonk
What baseball player that you have met stands out to you as a particularly cool/humble guy?

9:51
Jeff Sullivan: Michael Saunders

9:52
Comment From Joanne
Is there any way to trade Kemp to an AL team without including Ross? Indians, Orioles or Rangers?

9:54
Jeff Sullivan: Have to be prepared to take bad money back. You’re looking at 4/$72 million, taking into account the Dodgers payments, and Kemp is 31 with bad hips and 0.4 WAR a year ago

9:55
Jeff Sullivan: Kemp isn’t much more desirable than Hanley Ramirez. A little less baggage, but also a bigger remaining guarantee

9:56
Comment From Bill
This is a bit of a nitpick, but why are zone things and heat maps always shown from the catcher’s perspective? Considering that the way almost everyone watches baseball is on television, from the pitcher’s perspective, I find it much more intuitive to have them displayed the opposite way. I have to perform all these mental rotations every time there’s an article involving the strike zone. Any thoughts on this? Has anybody else mentioned this?

9:57
Jeff Sullivan: See, that’s interesting, because I’m the opposite — I always expect the catcher’s perspective. It’s how PITCHf/x charts have long been shown, and it’s how Gameday works, so I think it’s just trying to be consistent. But FWIW, I believe our FanGraphs plots give you the option to look from the catcher’s or pitcher’s perspective

9:58
Comment From Nik
What kind of return should the Phils expect for Ken Giles? It should be pretty massive, right?

9:58
Jeff Sullivan: Five years of an affordable young closer? He’s not quite as good as Kimbrel, but the upside is there, so you’d be looking at a haul. I think the Red Sox overpaid, but I imagine the Phillies could get something in the next neighborhood

9:59
Comment From Barnard
Jerry DiPoto has made his desire for acquiring athletic OF’s rather clear. Do you think it is possible to use available data to quantify athleticism, or is this just code speak for fast guys who are good at defense?

9:59
Jeff Sullivan: He wants fast guys who are good at defense. But more the latter than the former, and we have some numbers that might indicate strong defensive players who don’t possess blazing footspeed.

10:00
Comment From uruguayan
Will Jose Fernandez have a better career than Felix Hernandez?

10:00
Jeff Sullivan: Fernandez has 8 WAR and a Tommy John surgery. Felix has 50 WAR and no major injuries.

10:01
Jeff Sullivan: Felix is the ideal. Odds are Fernandez comes up short

10:01
Comment From I am the Walrus
If you were the Cubs where to you look for a CF? Free Agents – Fowler too expensive, Span too injury, Rasmus – gone. Austin Jackson?? JBJ??

10:01
Jeff Sullivan: I like the idea of Span, and I also like the idea of trying to get JBJ

10:03
Comment From Joanne
Padres are rumored to have shown interest in Andrus. Would a salary exchange of Shields or Upton make sense for Andrus? Does Andrus even make sense for them if you view Guerra as a potential starter in ’18?

10:04
Jeff Sullivan: You can’t really let the course of your moves be decided by prospects who are at least two years away. So I don’t think Guerra should have any impact here

10:05
Jeff Sullivan: Maybe you have a conversation if you float Shields. Could be the core of something there, although the Rangers also intend to compete and they need some sort of shortstop. Don’t know how much faith they have in Profar at the moment

10:07
Comment From 2-D
Which player do you think has the most fascinating trade history?

10:08
Jeff Sullivan: Difficult to answer. First name that comes to mind is Edwin Jackson, but I don’t know. Octavio Dotel is fascinating. He’s been involved in trades with Mike Hampton, Carlos Beltran, Colby Rasmus, and…Edwin Jackson

10:08
Jeff Sullivan: These are insufficient answers.

10:11
Jeff Sullivan: I’m a sucker for the guys who get traded as top prospects, and then later get traded as busts. Always fun to monitor that career decline indirectly

10:12
Jeff Sullivan: Like, Cameron Maybin was once traded for Miguel Cabrera, and he was also traded as a contract throw-in to even out bad money

10:13
Comment From marc
In order for the Pirates to overtake the Cards/Cubs in the central, they need to do what this off season?

10:13
Jeff Sullivan: Remain healthy. Maybe find a decent 1B. But they’re already right there in the mix — none of those three teams are meaningfully better than the other two

10:14
Comment From I am the Walrus
If Mets like Castro and want to keep their pitching, what on earth would they have to offer the Cubs?

10:15
Jeff Sullivan: Castro doesn’t have all that much value. Start with Nimmo and go from there

10:15
Comment From marc
What type of return would Neil Walker net the Pirates?

10:16
Jeff Sullivan: Pretty light. One more year, at an eight-figure salary. Decent pitching prospect, maybe a couple of them.

10:18
Comment From Bork
How do you feel about the Jays strategy of ‘waiting for the market to come to them’ in regards to the reliever market? Is it wise to bargain hunt here?

10:19
Jeff Sullivan: Will still have Cecil, will still have Hendriks, will still have Sanchez, who should remain in the bullpen. Will also still have Loup. I don’t think there has to be a sense of urgency — they’re in decent shape, and they could always acquire the next Lowe or Hawkins midseason if they wanted

10:20
Jeff Sullivan: Just saw the Mariners and Brewers swapped Ramon Flores and Luis Sardinas. Doesn’t mean very much, although Flores should be close to ready, and adding Sardinas further buries Chris Taylor. Shortstop available, right there

10:21
Comment From Charlie Bucket
Jeff – With the Gardner rumors, Yankees fans are dreaming of Heyward. Do you see any scenario where they could move Beltran to a team in need of a RF/DH to clear a spot? More money comes off the books next year, but this may be their best opportunity for young talent in years.

10:21
Jeff Sullivan: I could see them moving Gardner or Beltran and making a play for Upton

10:22
Jeff Sullivan: I don’t know why Upton feels more “them” than Heyward. Call it a gut thing

10:22
Comment From David
Is Bauer and a C+ prospect enough to get Ozuna?

10:22
Jeff Sullivan: Bauer’s probably too frustrating. He should go to the Pirates

10:22
Comment From Guesto
I love the wear Mallex Smith wears his ballcap: http://www.milb.com/images/…

10:23
Comment From The Dude
When Yankees make off season trades, they seem to come out of nowhere (i.e. Hicks, Gregorius, Eovaldi, etc). Is it fair to say that Cashman & co. simply does not leak stuff to the media?

10:23
Jeff Sullivan: Montero for Pineda, too!

10:23
Jeff Sullivan: I’d say Cashman has pretty good control over his front office

10:24
Comment From Jimmy Knuckles
What are a few examples of “young pitchers” the Marlins could fetch by trading Marcell Ozuna?

10:24
Jeff Sullivan: Wonder if they might try to build something around Salazar. Probably not a 1-for-1, but there’s the core of something there

10:25
Comment From Aaron
If you had to compose a team made of 25 clones of one player, who would you pick? MadBum, right?

10:26
Jeff Sullivan: Manny Machado

10:26
Comment From jtt
How weird do you think it is to win a world series as a rental player? Well that was fun, seeya later guys. Do guys think back on their careers “remember when I was a royal for 2 months? Good times”

10:27
Jeff Sullivan: Those chapters are probably easier to forget when you *don’t* win the World Series. Take the Zobrist case. He’ll never forget what just happened. There’s an awful lot of bonding that takes place down the stretch and into the playoffs, and in the end a rental player is just part of the club, provided he’s important enough

10:28
Jeff Sullivan: I want to know what it was like to be Mat Latos. Left the Reds in December, left the Marlins in July, left the Dodgers in September, joined the Angels for like a couple of days

10:28
Comment From Colin
Hi Jeff- Are you still writing at USS Mariner or have you completely transitioned off of that blog now?

10:29
Jeff Sullivan: I do all my writing here. And in my email, but that’s private

10:29
Comment From The Dude
It is possible for a team to put together such an incredible package that the Angels would consider trading Trout?

10:30
Jeff Sullivan: Mookie Betts, Eduardo Rodriguez, Blake Swihart, Yoan Moncada. Now you have Mike Trout! Congratulations

10:31
Jeff Sullivan: Was it worth it?

10:31
Comment From uruguayan
Which team has the oldest school FO/ownership group? The Reds? Rockies? Someone else?

10:31
Jeff Sullivan: Have to say Diamondbacks, right?

10:33
Comment From jack
why does baseball’s off-season take so long to develop? The NBA and NFL off-season lasts about 2 weeks

10:34
Jeff Sullivan: I feel like there’s a super obvious answer to this but I don’t follow the other sports close enough to know. Crowdsource!

10:35
Jeff Sullivan: So far, no answers. OK!

10:35
Comment From lunch
are we ever gonna see a “the worst of the best” post again? those were the best.

10:36
Jeff Sullivan: Maybe from time to time, but they take a crazy amount of work. Super hard to double up in a day but maybe when things are slow enough…

10:36
Comment From j6takish
baseball has no salary cap so teams can’t run out of money like they can in the NBA/NFL

10:36
Jeff Sullivan: Let’s go with that

10:37
Comment From Gabriel
Greetings from Uruguay!! Hultzen DFA’d. That was obviously coming but wow!! waht a quick fall for a #2 pick

10:38
Jeff Sullivan: Got to a situation where he was going to have to make the active roster. Obviously, that wouldn’t happen

10:38
Jeff Sullivan: Because of that same thing, he’s probably going to clear waivers, and then I’d expect him to remain in the system, off the 40-man

10:39
Jeff Sullivan: Remember, Hultzen was the “safe” pick. It was Rendon who was too risky

10:40
Comment From lunch
whatever happened to the fangraphs player of the year award? wasn’t that a thing for like 1 year?

10:40
Jeff Sullivan: Good question. I haven’t seen it discussed. Maybe it just didn’t work out well enough

10:41
Comment From lunch
cistulli’s article found that heyward is the most well-rounded position player, because of course it did. if we’re gonna make up new awards to give players, can we at least make up surprising ones? like, can you think of an award that would celebrate tuffy gosewich for being the best at something?

10:41
Jeff Sullivan: Best player out of Freeport, Illinois

10:42
Comment From Hektor
Matz + Renolds for Ozuna + Dee Gordon + Crow. Close?

10:42
Jeff Sullivan: Nah, too light for the Marlins

10:42
Comment From Ryan
In NBA, at least for the top tier guys, they just get a set max contract. There’s no real negotiation there.

10:43
Comment From Matt
What are your thoughts around a potential Cubs-Shark reunion? He and Bosio seemed to have a nice synergy.

10:43
Jeff Sullivan: I mean, it makes sense, right? Familiar spot, history of success, improves the Cubs rotation without costing them as much as another Jon Lester

10:44
Comment From Natitude Adjuster
Michael A. Taylor does not look powerful; but he appears to squeeze a lot of power out of his swing. Any idea what his secret is?

10:45
Jeff Sullivan: Swing hard. It’s not like he’s little, and he has a bunch of contact problems. Or I guess just the one contact problem. The raw skills are there, clearly the bat speed is there, but the power comes only in between the whiffs

10:45
Comment From Jake
What percent of trades do you think are relatively equal in value (with both teams filling different needs), and what percent has a “winner”?

10:46
Jeff Sullivan: I think the majority of trades are about equal. It’s not often you get something like, say, the Kimbrel trade, and even there, how confident are we that the Padres got the better side? I think we’re pretty confident, but there’s a big margin of error.

10:47
Comment From Bork
The Jays have a lot of room on their 40 man. See them picking up Hultzen then trying to sneak him off of it later on?

10:48
Jeff Sullivan: Someone might do that. Jays might not think it’s worth their while

10:48
Comment From Striker
Chris Taylor a fit for the White Sox?

10:48
Jeff Sullivan: He probably does belong in a ballpark he can hit the ball out of. Chicago fits

10:48
Comment From Art Vandelay
Tuffy Gosewich is at negative 0.5 WAR, and Homer Hillebrand is at negative 0.3 Sorry Tuffy, not even the best player from Freeport.

10:48
Comment From Kristen
With TEX adding Wilhelmsen, what could they get for Tolleson? Had a great season, cheap, under control for 3 more seasons, etc.

10:49
Jeff Sullivan: I don’t think they’re looking to subtract, actually. The way they talked about Wilhelmsen, the idea was to add depth, not exchange it

10:49
Comment From Gabriel
Any chances Hultzen one day reaches the Majors? I just feel bad for the kid

10:49
Jeff Sullivan: Well, he is left-handed

10:49
Comment From Marc
Hultzen to the Pirates for a little Ray Searage magic?

10:50
Jeff Sullivan: You want to put him on the active roster?

10:50
Comment From The Oriole Bird
If the Orioles traded Bundy, would Bundy regain “options” with the new team?

10:50
Jeff Sullivan: You don’t regain any options by getting dealt

10:50
Comment From Sean
Are the Diamondbacks actually that old-school though? The things they say might imply it, but I’m not sure that’s the reality.

10:51
Jeff Sullivan: Everything’s relative. Someone has to be the most old-school, and even if Arizona has an analytics department, every team has an analytics department. They seem the most old-school, even if they aren’t as old-school as, say, the average team 25 years ago

10:51
Comment From spclxk
if you’re not a mariners fan, which team would be the closest you are from cheering for right now.

10:52
Jeff Sullivan: It’s still the Mariners. it’s not changing loyalties; it’s just having the one loyalty weaken

10:52
Comment From Natitude Adjuster
Steamer’s 2016 projection for Bryce Harper is 6.8 WAR (647 PA). Do you think it’s more likely that he exceeds that WAR or falls short of it?

10:53
Jeff Sullivan: Steamer puts him at a 164 wRC+. Last year he finished at 197. Mentally I put him around 170 – 180

10:53
Comment From Kristen
With a potential top-5 of Tolleson, Dyson, Wilhelmsen, Kela, and Diekman, where you would rank TEX’s bullpen?

10:53
Jeff Sullivan: Still not totally sold on Diekman throwing strikes, and definitely not sold on Wilhelmsen throwing strikes, but as a group I think that’s easily top-10 and quite possibly top-5

10:54
Jeff Sullivan: Upside is big

10:54
Comment From Jeff
The Mets had the 10th best SS WAR last year. Is their SS problem actually a problem?

10:54
Jeff Sullivan: They’re below-average. It’s not a black-hole scenario, but it’s probably the most obvious place for them to try to get better.

10:54
Comment From random dude
How much value does Carlos Gonzalez have? Do you think a trade with the Indians could work?

10:55
Jeff Sullivan: I could see the Rockies looking for one of the long-term power starters. Rockies might need to add a little but Gonzalez did wonders for his value down the stretch

10:56
Jeff Sullivan: $37 million for Gonzalez over two years, ages 30-31. As a free agent, he might get $50-60 million over the same two years

10:56
Comment From RODNEY
We hear a lot about the Three True Outcomes, but what about the truest outcome of them all, DEATH?

10:56
Jeff Sullivan: That’s all Carson ever talks about

10:57
Comment From Bork
The Orioles are kind of in an awkward spot. If they are out of it by the trade deadline, do you see them blowing up the team and trading away a lot of assets?

10:58
Jeff Sullivan: yeah, I could see them taking a step back, although they probably wouldn’t go full rebuild, given the presence of Machado. The Angels are an example of how far you can get powered by almost one player by himself. When you have a player like that, you don’t need to tear it *all* down

10:58
Comment From turkey
Re: evaluating the Kimbrel trade, the confidence we should have is in how the prospects are valued right now rather than how they will turn out, no? It seems like people talk about how trades turn out down the road to determine a winner and loser but looking back with the benefit of hindsight leads to bad conclusions. Looking at it another way, if a team thinks a random prospect is valued too low by the industry they should still pay what the industry values rather than what they think he’s worth.

10:59
Jeff Sullivan: Yeah, you always want to evaluate by what’s known in the moment. Over the long-term, if you have a big enough sample, you can get information by the way things turned out, but that’s never true with an n of 1. Too much noise. Like, the Shields trade worked out for the Royals, clearly. But how many times would that same trade work out for them, given 1000 repetitions?

10:59
Comment From Waldo
How good do you feel about Stras handling the walk year pressure? Would you flip him or hold him, if you were GM?

11:00
Jeff Sullivan: Keep him, reevaluate in July. He’ll be fine

11:00
Comment From David
Salazar is worth far more than Ozuna, the Indians would need Yelich coming back too.

11:01
Jeff Sullivan: Yeah, Salazar is more valuable than Ozuna, and he has one more year of team control, but you also have to factor in the pitcher/injury risk. There’s something to be built around this

11:02
Comment From Marc
If Fangraphs had a hunger games style battle royal, whos the lone survivor?

11:02
Jeff Sullivan: I don’t have any confidence I could kill my coworkers, but I could evade them until they all died of natural causes

11:02
Jeff Sullivan: I don’t know how the Hunger Games work

11:02
Comment From Aoki
Can I expect a 2-year deal, or am I living year to year at this point?

11:02
Jeff Sullivan: Year to year. Maybe year + option

11:03
Comment From walt
a couple years ago the braves didnt look that bad. why did they decide to blow it up?

11:03
Jeff Sullivan: They felt they were headed in the wrong direction, and they wanted to have a different style of team

11:04
Comment From Prich
Can the Braves expect a top-100 guy for Teheran? Or would a package of medium upside guys from the A+ to AA ranks probably be about what they could expect?

11:05
Jeff Sullivan: Young, durable, affordable, didn’t lose any velocity. He should get one or two top-100 types

11:06
Comment From Gerardo Parra
What am I going to be going forward… average in every way (baseball-wise) over the next 2-3 years, but still under-appreciated?

11:06
Jeff Sullivan: Do you count as underappreciated when you have 0.5 WAR combined over the last two seasons?

11:06
Jeff Sullivan: Honestly I think you have nearly average offense and I assume your defense is far better than the numbers say it was in 2015. 1.5 – 2 WAR player in my book

11:07
Comment From Guest
Is the Braves interest in O’Day so they can trade him for talent at the deadline?

11:07
Jeff Sullivan: Based on what I saw last night, they’re not interested at his current asking price

11:07
Jeff Sullivan: but I don’t think you sign a reliever for 3-4 years to flip him. You do that with a 1-year guy

11:08
Comment From Bork
In regards to what you said about Machado and the Orioles, if they don’t think they can extend him, why not trade him while his value is so high and the O’s have no chance of competing?

11:09
Jeff Sullivan: I don’t think they have no chance of competing. The wild-card bar is pretty low

11:09
Comment From turkey
So back to the Kimbrel trade, how likely is it that the public perception of the prospects doesn’t match that of the industry? It just seems unlikely that Dombrowski could have gotten a lot more in return for that package but didn’t know it or chose to make a bad trade anyway.

11:10
Jeff Sullivan: Sometimes this happens. Look at the Doug Fister trades. A lot of people around the industry thought Dombrowski overpaid. Doesn’t mean everyone else is right and Dombrowski is wrong, but not all trades are made under optimal conditions, with full knowledge of everything else. Dombrowski wanted to get ahead of the market and he overpaid to do so

11:10
Comment From chilly
were you surprised to see atl asking for pollock in return for miller? not only does it seem like a huge reach but also a gear shift when compared to what theyve been getting. is shelby a huge regression candidate for you?

11:10
Jeff Sullivan: I don’t love Shelby Miller, last I saw the Pollock thing was unconfirmed, and even if that were real, it’s just the start of a potential negotiation, not the end point

11:11
Jeff Sullivan: No harm in seeing if the Diamondbacks undervalue their own CF

11:11
Comment From MSW
Wade Davis, arguably the top reliever in baseball, is a failed starter who was converted to the bullpen. Who are some other failed or stumbling starters who could reinvent themselves in the ‘pen, and would it be smarter for teams to try that out than pay big bucks on the FA market?

11:12
Jeff Sullivan: Dave came up with Bauer. The Blue Jays already came up with Sanchez. Matt Moore could be headed this direction

11:13
Comment From jack
“Bauer’s probably too frustrating. He should go to the Pirates” funny you say that.. the Marlins hired the Pirates’ pitching guru, Jim Benedict, about a month ago. Perhaps he should go to the Marlins after all…

11:13
Jeff Sullivan: Bauer for Ozuna as a central component would be interesting, I’d give it that

11:13
Comment From TommyLasordid
Is Andy Van Slyke insane? Or did his son pass along some internal Dodger clubhouse grumblings? Inquiring minds want to know.

11:14
Jeff Sullivan: Andy Van Slyke got drunk and said more than he was supposed to. Probably there are some nuggets of truth in there, but he also probably exaggerated or overstated

11:15
Comment From Tom
What is the logic behind win now teams offering 6-7 year deals when their window of contention is only couple years? is it not better to offer higher AAV at shorter term like 2-3 years? E.g. 80-90/3 for zimmerman

11:15
Jeff Sullivan: Players like long-term security, and we don’t understand windows nearly well enough to be able to predict the future in four or five years

11:15
Comment From Bork
What would you do with Roberto Osuna in Toronto? Keep him as closer or try him out as a starter?

11:15
Jeff Sullivan: I’d give him a chance to start. Sanchez, I wouldn’t

11:15
Comment From The Boat
Any thoughts on the Korean guys – Park, Son, Lee, Oh? Any you like in particular?

11:16
Jeff Sullivan: I like Park. Haven’t researched the others much.

11:16
Comment From Bork
Josh Thole looks to be primary backup catcher for the Jays in 2016. Is this the most mehhhh seen you’ve seen?

11:16
Jeff Sullivan: How many teams really have an awesome backup catcher?

11:16
Comment From I am the Walrus
I read Profar is out of options? If true how can he get AB’s at majors if he can’t play SS? Platoon at 2B and OF?

11:17
Jeff Sullivan: He could move around. There are ways to fit him in a few times every week

11:17
Comment From Brian
Mariners acquire Luis Sardinas from Brewers.

11:18
Jeff Sullivan: Mentioned this earlier. Flores is an interesting potential 2-WAR player right away, if his leg is ok. Sardinas is probably a better depth piece than O’Malley

11:18
Jeff Sullivan: All right, I need to get going now

11:19
Jeff Sullivan: So! Thank you everybody for hanging out, and I’m sorry for what I didn’t or couldn’t address. We’ll do it again…probably not next week, but then the week after that at the same time. Until then, be well and have great days

We hoped you liked reading Jeff Sullivan FanGraphs Chat — 11/20/15 by Jeff Sullivan!

Please support FanGraphs by becoming a member. We publish thousands of articles a year, host multiple podcasts, and have an ever growing database of baseball stats.

FanGraphs does not have a paywall. With your membership, we can continue to offer the content you've come to rely on and add to our unique baseball coverage.

Support FanGraphs




Jeff made Lookout Landing a thing, but he does not still write there about the Mariners. He does write here, sometimes about the Mariners, but usually not.

newest oldest most voted
Adam
Guest
Adam

Any chance the Braves attempt to sign Heyward? If they are looking to improve this season with an eye towards the future he makes a lot of sense to me.

svachon
Member
svachon

No!