Jeff Sullivan FanGraphs Chat — 1/14/14

9:07	Jeff Sullivan: So, look, I’m always late. I know this about myself.

9:07	Jeff Sullivan: I was going to be a minute late today!

9:07	Jeff Sullivan: Then Cover It Live wouldn’t let me log in and I became seven minutes late.

9:08	Jeff Sullivan: So blame them for 86% of your annoyance

9:08	Jeff Sullivan: Now let’s have us a baseball chat

9:08	Comment From wait you know what they say better 7 minutes late than 1 minute late

9:08	Comment From aaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaa aaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaa

9:08	Comment From Josh Signing John Buck is a decent signing for the Mariners right? Not really Miguel Olivo 2.0 for a backup on a one year deal.

9:09

Jeff Sullivan: Not bad, in that he’s better than Humberto Quintero and probably better than Jesus Sucre and he’s able to start in the event that Zunino isn’t good. Sort of an all-or-nothing hitter who doesn’t have his old power, and he’s not a good pitch-receiver, evidently, but Buck is an adequate veteran on a deal that’s never worth more than a few hundred words.

9:10	Jeff Sullivan: Incidentally, John Buck would represent one possible Mike Zunino career path. Hardly out of the question.

9:10	Comment From Robert It’s ok, I always add 5 minutes onto the start time anyways

9:10	Jeff Sullivan: This man is smarter than most Roberts

9:10	Comment From Curtis Why the 24th for Tanaka? it’s going to be a midnight oil offer fest whether it is 3 days or 30 days from his initial announcement..

9:11	Jeff Sullivan: Well they had to establish some kind of window and 30 days was a holdover from the previous posting system. Certainly, the most activity is going to come over the final 24 hours

9:12	Jeff Sullivan: Unique situation, in that we have essentially a free agent with a signing deadline. As I’ve said before, really no reason for Tanaka to sign before he has to

9:12	Jeff Sullivan: Do we know if the deadline is actually midnight, or something more reasonable? Crowdsource!

9:12	Comment From Tim Ok most analysts and projections are bearish on the Reds. But with that pitching staff they still should reach around 90 wins right?

9:13	Jeff Sullivan: 90 wins is optimistic, as they seem more like a .500 ballclub, but here you can see a big difference between ZiPS and Steamer. Steamer thinks the Reds are well behind the Cardinals in the Central. ZiPS loves the pitching staff more, and basically calls the Reds solid contenders

9:13	Jeff Sullivan: The easy way out is to split the middle and say they’re fringe contenders who’ll be good with health/breaks

9:13	Comment From Swing and a Miss Puiggy Tony Blengino is a phenomenal addition to the FG writing team; just wanted to say that.

9:14	Jeff Sullivan: We agree, and we like that his perspective comes with legitimacy having worked inside multiple actual front offices

9:14	Jeff Sullivan: A nerd who made it!

9:14	Comment From tropicalmug Did you see how supervolcanoes are powered? Is this news at all? http://arstechnica.com/science/2014/01/earths-devastating-supervolcanoes-powered-by-density-differences/

9:15	Jeff Sullivan: It’s news and it’s neat. And I also wish we could talk a little less often about supervolcanoes, although at least now there seems to be a true difference between them and other littler sorts

9:16	Jeff Sullivan: Used to be a supervolcano was thought to be a volcano that erupted all big-like. Now it seems like there are true differences in plumbing preceding a super-eruption or whatever you want to call it

9:16	Comment From Swing and a Miss Puiggy Tony Cingrani in 2014: can he keep it up?

9:17	Jeff Sullivan: Finished with a 99 FIP- and a 93 xFIP-. I like his chances to be at least league-average

9:17	Jeff Sullivan: I’ll worry about his repertoire when I actually have reason to

9:17	Comment From Catoblepas How much of the pleasure you get from writing is due to reader response, i.e. us? My first Community piece got published and I’m thrilled every time someone comments. Has it changed since you started getting paid to write?

9:19

Jeff Sullivan: Things changed well before that — I’ve been writing online for more than a decade and at some point you just get accustomed to people leaving a lot of comments. It’s a twin process, in that pleasure comes from feedback and also from within if I’m particularly proud of an idea or the execution. I put more weight on the latter, but I’m very much aware of the feedback because like all writers I am thin-skinned and I frequently doubt myself

9:20	Jeff Sullivan: Every single writer is a delicate little tulip

9:20	Comment From Cochise Why don’t the M’s shift their attention to Raciel Iglesias or Sun Min Yoon instead of Tanaka?

9:20	Jeff Sullivan: Because Tanaka’s better. Also we can’t be entirely sure quite what they’re doing right now

9:20	Jeff Sullivan: besides signing John Buck

9:22	Jeff Sullivan: Looking for the latest Yoon update

9:23	Jeff Sullivan: So Yoon pitched last year out of the bullpen and his velocity dropped. That’s not encouraging. Most recent links have been the Twins and Red Sox

9:24	Jeff Sullivan: Iglesias was also primarily a reliever in Cuba although he’s going to get a shot to start

9:24	Comment From Robert So, Mike Trout decided to add 5% to his BB% in 2013. What does he decided to do in 2014? 35 HR? Get back to his steals level from 2012?

9:25	Jeff Sullivan: For the record it was also in large part just pitchers pitching him differently and more cautiously. It’s not like Trout squeezed more walks out of the same exact stuff

9:25	Jeff Sullivan: Also dropped his K% by three percentage points

9:25	Jeff Sullivan: Maybe this is the year he ends up with double-digit triples

9:26	Comment From Cochise How much would you like the John Buck signing for the M’s?

9:27	Jeff Sullivan: As much as I like filling out a short online survey in order to get a free coffee from the bagel place down the street

9:27	Comment From Mr. Wrestling IV Meet the new CoverIt Live, same as the old CoverItLive.

9:27	Jeff Sullivan: I’m holding out for as long as I possibly can

9:27	Jeff Sullivan: I’m sure it’s easy enough to use the new model, but since I’m always late it’s not like I give myself much time in advance to learn the system

9:28	Comment From Ian Are the Reds having the worst offseason or just a really bad one?

9:28	Jeff Sullivan: Seen the Orioles?

9:28	Jeff Sullivan: It’s been depressingly inactive, but at least it hasn’t been a catastrophe. So

9:28	Comment From Stanatee the Manatee Can we please take a moment to laugh at the Cubs awful new mascot? http://usatthebiglead.files.wordpress.com/2014/01/clarkthecub.jpg?w=640

9:29	Jeff Sullivan: Totally missed this yesterday. I can imagine exactly what that mascot’s voice would sound like. It wouldn’t sound like a mean bear.

9:30	Comment From SMC I’m an attorney, and I do arbitration appeals as part of my practice. And I think A-Rod has a better shot than some people do, particularly in light of Horowitz’s “creative” math getting to 162.

9:30	Jeff Sullivan: I cannot respond to this but I wanted to add the comment regardless!

9:31	Comment From Marvin Any chance Mariners can pry Gomez from Brewers for some prospects not named Walker? (should they?)

9:32	Jeff Sullivan: Unlikely. He’s incredible, and signed to an incredible contract. I’m sure they’ve called, but there’s zero reason for the Brewers to sell Gomez lightly

9:32	Comment From LarryA Will the Yanks really go into the season with Johnson and Brian Roberts at 2nd and 3rd? Along with Jeter, will it be disasterous for their pitchers?

9:33	Jeff Sullivan: They also signed Scott Sizemore, and Brendan Ryan is around for defense, and they’re still sniffing around the market, with a Logan Forsythe rumor coming up the other day

9:34	Jeff Sullivan: But it’s going to be…un-Yankees-like. I’m not sure the Yankees right now are a .500 ballclub

9:34	Jeff Sullivan: We have them projected right now to be basically the same as the Mariners

9:35	Jeff Sullivan: Pending, of course, the remaining addition to their starting five

9:35	Comment From Mugatu Doesn’t Jeff Baker just make too much sense for the Brewers? I feel like I’m taking crazy pills.

9:35	Jeff Sullivan: Makes more sense for a good team

9:35	Comment From Boston Phan Do framing skills deteriorate as catchers age? Having Ruiz back for a full season should be a boost for the Phils but perhaps forecasting systems are too optimistic given his age?

9:36	Jeff Sullivan: To my knowledge we don’t really have a pitch-framing aging curve. And, intuitively, it seems like the sort of thing that ought to age pretty gracefully. I mean, look at Jose Molina, who is older than most rocks

9:36	Comment From Guest Over or under 1% chance Tanaka signs with Colorado

9:36	Jeff Sullivan: Way under

9:37	Jeff Sullivan: Somehow way under 1%

9:37	Comment From Ryan Given that Mike Trout is putting up similar numbers to 22 year old A-Rod, why are we not hearing more speculation about him juicing, especially with the body type that he has, ie. fast and powerful.

9:37	Jeff Sullivan: Because people want to believe this is a new era and because people aren’t completely insufferable pricks

9:38	Comment From SMC If the Yanks oir Dodgers offered Tanaka 8/180, he’d have to take it, no?

9:38	Jeff Sullivan: That’s my assumption, unless things are even crazier than I think

9:39	Jeff Sullivan: but that should be well more than enough

9:39	Comment From Nick If Rick Hahn magically signs Tanaka, does that make the White Sox contenders in 2014? A rotation with Sale-Tanaka-Quintana looks very strong.

9:39	Jeff Sullivan: No, the White Sox are bad. Arguably the most bad. Bad + 3 or 4 wins = only a little less bad

9:40	Jeff Sullivan: At this point, the White Sox are projected worse than the Astros

9:40	Comment From Kyle in Illinois What happens to the Mariners’ compensatory pick if (theoretically) Morales doesn’t sign with a team until after the June draft? Do they lose it altogether or get something else later?

9:40	Jeff Sullivan: I believe they just don’t get compensation

9:40	Comment From tropicalmug 5 pm EST deadline for Tanaka

9:41	Jeff Sullivan: Re: earlier. Good to know, thank you

9:41	Comment From Gson Homer Bailey…gets trade where?..

9:41	Jeff Sullivan: Don’t think he does

9:41	Comment From Guest Do you think the Mariners make a rash decision and trade the farm for Price if they fail to land Tanaka?

9:42	Jeff Sullivan: I think they throw too much money at Ervin Santana in that evenet

9:42	Comment From LarryA What would Miggy Cabreras line look like if he played in AAA all year?

9:44	Jeff Sullivan: Best line in affiliated ball last year was .390/.456/.676, belonging to Lonnie Chisenhall over a small sample

9:45	Jeff Sullivan: I’ll put Cabrera around .375/.500/.650, given sufficient health and day-to-day motivation

9:45	Jeff Sullivan: maybe a higher OBP on account of all the intentional walks

9:45	Comment From Joe Does Franklin start the year on the bench if he doesn’t get traded before ?

9:45	Jeff Sullivan: minors

9:45	Comment From Vin Why Brewers prospects suck why?

9:45	Jeff Sullivan:

9:45	Comment From Cochise Do you watch the frozen 4?

9:46	Jeff Sullivan: I will if I’m around. I used to care about college hockey lots more

9:47	Comment From Eastern NC Name five sure fire hall of famers that are currently playing if they retired today.

9:47	Jeff Sullivan: http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/which-active-players-are-going-to-cooperstown-2/

9:48	Comment From Gson the cardinals are projected to be a 105 win team.. in that division?.. it’s just not going to happen..

9:48	Jeff Sullivan: Nobody is projected to be a 105-win team

9:48	Jeff Sullivan: Nobody should ever be projected to be a 105-win team

9:48	Comment From Eastern NC Do the 1995 Indians have the most near-HOF players in history? Manny, Thome, Orel, Lofton, Belle? If they had won it all, would they be more inclined to get in?

9:49	Jeff Sullivan: Interesting question. I don’t have a good response off the top of my head, but maybe this’ll inspire a Community blog post, as some prompts do. A championship presumably would have helped everyone’s causes

9:50	Comment From Steve What are your thoughts on Zack Wheeler? Will he take a step forward next year and lower his WHIP?

9:52	Jeff Sullivan: I get nervous about guys who don’t throw enough strikes. I think he’ll be better than his debut-season 112 xFIP-, but not by a whole lot — he’s got real kinks to work through and I’m uncomfortable assuming big improvement

9:52	Comment From LarryA Why are so few of the Community article Fantasy focused?

9:52	Jeff Sullivan: People are less interested in writing fantasy content

9:52	Jeff Sullivan: Also a lot of the submitted would-be fantasy content has been pretty bad

9:53	Comment From EdgarHOF Just curious, do you have any idea what’s the difference (in wins the next season) for teams which change their logo/mascot/primary uniform? Never seems to be good from my acedotal point of view.

9:53	Jeff Sullivan: Well this isn’t the question I was expecting

9:54

Jeff Sullivan: Obviously, I don’t have a good, well-researched answer. Off the top of my head, I’ll guess teams are more likely to make changes when they’re coming off disappointing seasons and need a bit of a PR lift. So if that’s the case I”d bet on improvement due simply to regression up to the mean

9:55	Comment From Jobu Is there a young pitcher you could see taking a Teheran-like leap forward this year?

9:55	Jeff Sullivan: I keep thinking it’s time for Matt Moore to get better

9:55	Comment From Eastern NC If a former player were to turn into a volcano, it would have to be Albert Belle, right? I think Brett Lawrie would also make a good volcano. Ty Cobb too, he punched out a fan!

9:55	Jeff Sullivan: Milton Bradley would be one of those volcanoes that’s constantly threatening surrounding farming communities

9:55	Jeff Sullivan: In retrospect probably shouldn’t have settled on the flanks of Mt. Bradley

9:56	Comment From Mike Jeff – you have helped make volcanos interesting for me, thanks. But what do you make of this? http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XI7AoBFxpAY

9:58	Jeff Sullivan: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ol_Doinyo_Lengai

9:58	Jeff Sullivan: sorry that took a few minutes

9:58	Comment From Guest Do the jays have a chance at landing Nick Franklin? Would Drabek and a bullpen arm be enough?

9:58	Jeff Sullivan: Jays have an obvious need but the teams don’t match up particularly well. Drabek doesn’t have enough value

9:59	Comment From Jobu Does ZIPS take into account home park factors?

9:59	Jeff Sullivan: I assume that it does

9:59	Comment From Bobby Will Rays trade Joyce, Lobaton or Price by Friday, seeing as that allows trading team time to negotiate salary before arbitration offers must be turned in?

9:59	Jeff Sullivan: Price isn’t getting moved until after the Tanaka situation is settled

9:59	Jeff Sullivan: if then. I assume there’ll be another run on his services after the big fish has committed somewhere