Jeff Sullivan FanGraphs Chat — 11/5/13

November 5, 2013

8:59	Jeff Sullivan: Hey guys

8:59	Jeff Sullivan: A world champion was decided last week. Now that feels like forever ago!

9:01	Comment From Marty Where do you see Ellsbury landing? Is Seattle the favorite based on what you’ve heard?

9:01	Jeff Sullivan: Let me put it like this:

9:01	Jeff Sullivan: I don’t think the Mariners are going to sign Ellsbury, but I think the Mariners are the most likely individual team to sign Ellsbury.

9:01	Jeff Sullivan: Need’s there, money’s there, willingness to overpay is probably there

9:01	Comment From Sadwick Hiya Jeff.

9:01	Jeff Sullivan: hey hi!

9:02	Comment From David Thoughts on this “defensive coordinator” position that Matt Williams is bringing to DC?

9:02

Jeff Sullivan: Fascinating. Probably worth a post here. There’s still not ultra-convincing evidence that shifting works the way it’s supposed to, so we need more data, but I didn’t expect Williams to be such a forward-thinking former player. Just based on that alone, the Nats seem like they’re in good hands

9:03	Comment From Mark Shocked Josh Johnson didn’t get a QO, or do the Jays know more about his health than the rest of us?

9:04

Jeff Sullivan: Johnson threw half a season and posted an ERA in the 6s. Sabermetrically, it would’ve been justified to give him a QO, but I think it absolutely makes sense to draw the line below $14.1 million. I’d be willing to pay him that much in 2014, but really only if he hit some incentives instead of guaranteeing it up front

9:05	Comment From T. Ferguson Three best FA fits for a Mariner Makeover? Is Ellsbury one?

9:05	Jeff Sullivan: I haven’t read this yet, but talk about timing! http://www.ussmariner.com/2013/11/05/daves-2014-off-season-plan/

9:05	Comment From Eminor3rd Hey Jeff, you were early, and you deserve recognition for that

9:05	Comment From William How many 1st place votes can Trout manage? We know Posnanski is voting for ALMVP so that’s 1.

9:06	Jeff Sullivan: Last year, he got 6/28. This year you could conceivably see a challenger in Josh Donaldson. I’ll call it 4/28

9:07	Comment From Stuart It’s probably just obsolescence, but why isn’t Bill James’ “Secondary average” used anymore? I always found that useful, and I still use it today.

9:08	Jeff Sullivan: We’ve just moved on to better offensive stats, and at some point you need only so many. But you can keep using it — it’s not going to give you the wrong ideas very often

9:08	Comment From semperty If you’re St. Louis, who do you go after as a SS (on the open market or by trade), and what are you willing to pay for that individual?

9:09	Jeff Sullivan: Seems like it might be time to make something happen with Andrus or Profar

9:09	Jeff Sullivan: Drew would be a backup, but there’s so much talent to be traded there in St. Louis

9:09	Comment From Jon Jays Mom You’ve mentioned that Franklin Gutierrez could be quite a get on the free agent market. Odds the Cardinals take a chance on him?

9:10	Jeff Sullivan: Slim — they’ve already got something of a complicated outfield, and I think he goes somewhere that could promise a little more playing time

9:10	Jeff Sullivan: But he would be an interesting gamble to take over al ot of time in CF if Taveras isn’t deemed ready and the team wants to explore non-Jay possibilities

9:11	Comment From Marty If you were a GM, would you hire a manager who has yet to manage a professional team?

9:11	Jeff Sullivan: I think so, yeah. And I actually intend to write about this very topic somehow this week. Haven’t started researching yet but this appears to be a trend

9:11	Comment From Malone Thoughts on Brad Ausmus hire?

9:11	Jeff Sullivan: From what I’ve heard, he’s something of a baseball genius, so that’s encouraging

9:11	Comment From Kyle Reading the opening to Dave’s off-season plan and wondering, when was the last time the Mariners were this sad and uninspiring?

9:11	Jeff Sullivan: 2008 was absolutely dreadful

9:13	Comment From Curtis Can Ethan Martin start in Philly or is a destined for the pen…

9:13	Jeff Sullivan: I think bullpen’s the likelihood, if he has a long-term future in the majors at all

9:13	Comment From person hscer Can you write about 30 teams for an extended period of time and remain a fan of one team?

9:14	Jeff Sullivan: I think you can, if that team doesn’t suck

9:14	Jeff Sullivan: It’ll be different, but the feelings will still be in there to deal with when full-time work time is over

9:14	Comment From semperty Is Johnson a good Francisco Liriano type project (obviously not same price)?

9:14	Jeff Sullivan: Seems exactly the type!

9:15	Comment From Curtis Which is more vital to the success of a club…ability to target draft-day talent and value? or is it more important to have a quality player development system in place? it seems obvious that few teams have both…

9:15	Jeff Sullivan: I’m going with player development. I’d rather have decent scouting and awesome development than awesome scouting and decent development, because lots of players can be good if you maximize them

9:16	Comment From Catoblepas Hi Jeff! I really liked your article on Wainwright shifting his approach to Ortiz, varying his timing and rubber location. Is there something about Ortiz that makes him particularly vulnerable to a surprise approach? And if not, why doesn’t Wainwright do it all the time?

9:17

Jeff Sullivan: Wainwright says he does it somewhat frequently, although I haven’t checked with regard to the timing variation. I don’t think it was something particular about Ortiz — I think it was Wainwright just trying to do something to slow Ortiz down, and if he did it against all the other Red Sox hitters Ortiz might’ve seen it coming. I think he’s comfortable enough with the variation that he could stand to do it more, but good luck finding anything and proving that it has a big effect

9:19	Comment From Guest Middlebrooks, Carp, Owens, Webster, Ranuado for Stanton? Is that enough? Would the Sox do it?

9:19	Jeff Sullivan: Nope, that’s not getting it done

9:19	Comment From Shark Mapiro I just realized that John Farrell and Mike Matheny will be managing next year’s All Star Game.

9:20	Jeff Sullivan: Can’t wait for Matheny’s slow hook in July

9:21	Comment From Andrew Hey Jeff, what would the best way to convince someone of the importance of sabermetrics?

9:21	Jeff Sullivan: Good/tough question, but off the top of my head, I’d say Tampa Bay and Oakland

9:21	Comment From Warren I want the Twins to sign Phil Hughes, who would be their clear number one by a mile. How sad is that? Any chance?

9:22	Jeff Sullivan: That’s pretty sad, and yeah, there’s a fine chance. He fits the mold, he should be affordable, and there’s real upside there after he gets out of the NYY park

9:22	Comment From Douglas The Angels seem to have two capable starting catchers, with Iannetta seemingly the more likely to be dealt. What kind of return could he bring the Angels? A B-prospect? A back-end starter? A high-end reliever?

9:23	Jeff Sullivan: Probably a package highlighted by a B-level prospect. Iannetta doesn’t have the strongest defensive rep, nor is he an outstanding hitter so much as he’s a fine hitter

9:23	Comment From MFG Baseball is officially in the Platoon Age, correct?

9:23	Jeff Sullivan: I don’t think so!

9:24	Jeff Sullivan: Platoon Age implies there are platoons everywhere, which there are not. They’re limited mostly to a handful of teams. If anything we’re in the Middle Reliever Age

9:25	Comment From person hscer Why are singles worthless in SecA?

9:25	Jeff Sullivan: it’s like ISO + walks and net steals

9:25	Comment From Ian How should someone with Jacoby Ellsbury’s skill set be expected to age?

9:26	Jeff Sullivan: Fairly normally, probably a little slower than average. He’s got a lot of skills and athleticism so there’s no one thing on which he entirely depends. I think people tend to exaggerate the significance of profile-specific aging curves

9:27	Comment From Ted Thoughts on Salty in Boston? I’m thinking they go after AJ Pierzynski as a stop gap until Vazquez and Swihart are ready, am I off base?

9:27	Jeff Sullivan: I could see them as Texas’ main competitor for Brian McCann

9:27	Comment From Chess How much money do you see Brian Wilson getting?

9:28	Jeff Sullivan: Enough to buy an island and disappear forever

9:28	Comment From Matt Do you think the Twins front office is smart enough to target the kind of pitchers they clearly need? Who could you see them actually signing?

9:28	Jeff Sullivan: I think they’re smart enough to identify decent pitchers who aren’t going to cost everything they have in the bank. So you’re looking at acquisition candidates in the second and third tiers

9:29	Jeff Sullivan: Guys like Scott Feldman!

9:29	Comment From Yadier Molina How many 1st place votes will I get in the MVP?

9:29	Jeff Sullivan: One or two

9:29	Comment From A Tribe Called Kipnis Kendrys Morales has to be the worst qualifying offer, right? He either accepts or Boras leverages the offer to sign a multi-year deal near the same average annual value.

9:30	Jeff Sullivan: The Mariners want him back for multiple years, so I think the QO was mostly about killing his market. Now they’ll try to get him for like 3/$36 or something

9:30	Comment From Pale Hose Are personal catchers for a pitcher a sign of wanting the better game caller/framer or of fickleness?

9:31

Jeff Sullivan: Pitchers feel more comfortable working with certain guys, guys with whom pitching is easy, guys with whom they’re always on the same page. There will be a correlation with game-calling and pitch-framing, but it won’t be perfect because it’ll be about feel more than it’ll be about numbers

9:31	Comment From Guest If the Dodgers somehow land Tanaka and Price, how close would that be to the best rotation ever?

9:32	Jeff Sullivan: Not entirely convinced it would be better than 2013 Detroit, especially since we don’t know what Tanaka is, but when I saw that rumor I laughed for three minutes

9:32	Jeff Sullivan: So Dodgers

9:33

Comment From Guest
Something that has always confused me about the way people talk about defensive metrics: Lots of FG writers say they don’t understand why people can accept players having down offensive years but not down defensive years. I realize there a TON of factors that could affect defensive performance, but isn’t that a terrible analogy? Hitters can’t adjust to attack defenders in nearly the same way that pitchers and defenses can adjust to hitters. It’s not like scouting reports circulated that said “hey, Trout struggles going back on line drives to his right. Let’s hit more of those.”

9:35

Jeff Sullivan: It’s just that you’re limited by samples that might not be sufficient to reveal true talent. Just a few random defensive mistakes can cost a guy a handful of runs, and they might’ve been due to any number of things. If you think about defensive chances, and then if you think only about defensive chances that are non-routine, you’re left with a fairly little number, and then there’s chaos

9:35	Jeff Sullivan: Incidentally, this year Carlos Gomez robbed, what, five home runs? Those go directly into his DRS even though that’s not going to happen again, and not because Gomez isn’t that talented

9:37	Comment From Alex Kidd Which players (if any) do you see taking the QO?

9:37	Jeff Sullivan: Maybe Granderson

9:37	Jeff Sullivan: Argument for Morales, but I don’t think he will

9:38	Comment From Daniel Carroll Should the Mariners even bother picking up an FA pitcher, or just throw all of the young arms out there and see what happens?

9:38	Jeff Sullivan: They should get a guy, and I think they will

9:38	Comment From Ian Are there differences in aging curves for guys whose value is more related to their legs (Ellsbury with speed and defense) than guys who are mostly bat?

9:39	Jeff Sullivan: There are differences, but they’re pretty slight and they shouldn’t determine a team’s course of action within free agency. It’s always a case-by-case basis and knowing a player will tell you more than knowing an aging curve

9:40	Comment From Matt Was it crazy for the Twins not to move on from Gardenhire this year?

9:40	Jeff Sullivan: Not crazy. Who would be better? Was Gardenhire even the problem? A new manager is so not the Twins’ biggest need

9:40	Jeff Sullivan: or even their tenth-biggest need

9:40	Comment From Will which employees of fangraphs are currently on the hot seat?

9:40	Jeff Sullivan: my seat is warm, from sitting on it

9:41	Comment From Steve 1 Did D.A. change the Fangraphs color scheme to be lighther?

9:41	Jeff Sullivan: It was intentional! But I haven’t found out any more about it so I don’t know if it’s permanent

9:42	Comment From Tristan What was the last prospect you thought was surely a “Can’t Miss” and missed? I was thinking about Ruben Mateo the other day….

9:42	Jeff Sullivan: Ooh, let me get into some archives!

9:44	Jeff Sullivan: All right, unoriginal, but probably Andy Marte

9:44	Jeff Sullivan: For a more current answer, Jesus Montero would be a popular one, although I never considered him can’t-miss. But plenty did and boy does it look like he’s going to miss

9:44	Jeff Sullivan: and then some!

9:44	Comment From Steve 1 I find myself becoming less of a fan of a particular team just by getting older and also more knowledgeable. ‘Fans’ are often just so unreasonable it makes experiencing any kind of fandom kind of painful

9:45	Jeff Sullivan: I remember I used to think the world of die-hard fans. Used to envy their loyalty and commitment. Now I think a lot of them are awful and kind of sad

9:46	Jeff Sullivan: It’s weird to wrap validation up in the accomplishments of strangers. Obviously I still love sports and I still have favorite teams, but I think there are shifts in perspective that come with mental maturity

9:46	Jeff Sullivan: In times of difficulty, sports simultaneously become both more and less important, so maybe you’ll really lean on your favorite team when you’re grieving? Not that I — well this got dark

9:47	Comment From Ed What would it take for you to give up on the Mariners and start rooting for another team. I am seriously depressed after reading Dave’s summary on USSM today.

9:48

Jeff Sullivan: Personally I could never root for another team more than the Mariners. They’re just in there and they’re never going away. But my interest in the Mariners has most certainly waned on account of how awful they’ve been, and I don’t watch them very much. I think at this point I’m just less forgiving of bad baseball and I’m less willing to put up with it. I’ve got shit to do, you know?

9:48	Comment From WWMRD During the season, do you watch Mariners games every day, the most interesting matchup going on that day, or no game at all?

9:49	Jeff Sullivan: Blend of all three, depending, plus the occasional day spent jumping from one game to the next. Then there’s all the baseball watching I do through MLB.tv archives

9:49	Comment From Marty Does Stanton start the season with the Marlins?

9:49	Jeff Sullivan: I still think no, but at some point maybe I should start listening to what the Marlins are actually saying. They claim they’re going to build around him, soooo…

9:50	Jeff Sullivan: My belief is he’ll be the hot topic during the winter meetings. Maybe after he’s rejected whatever contract proposal the Marlins take in his direction

9:51	Comment From Tristan thoughts on Arenado winning Gold Glove? aside from dismissing the award that is….

9:51	Jeff Sullivan: Who was better?

9:51	Comment From Prich Does STL putting a package together for Andrus just make too much sense for both sides to actually come true? The Cards have $$$ and surplus in Tex areas of need, and the Rangers would be able to dump salary and pick up pieces they need… What’s to miss!?

9:51	Jeff Sullivan: I don’t know. They’ve been beating around this bush for what feels like years. It’s time

9:51	Comment From Pirates Hurdles Bucs need a LH 1B compliment to Gaby. Free agent like Loney or Hart or trade?

9:52	Jeff Sullivan: I don’t know which route they’ll go, but they’ll end up with a second- or third-tier 1B. And he’ll be just fine, at what he was brought in to do. It’ll be a quiet acquisition

9:52	Comment From semperty What about the argument that SABR can’t win championships? Is there a good, clearly SABR team that’s won a title?

9:53	Jeff Sullivan: That’s a dumb argument. You can’t really do anything to convince dumb people of something that isn’t dumb.

9:53	Jeff Sullivan: But, if you’re resigned to trying:

9:53	Jeff Sullivan: 1st argument: lay out how the playoffs are a random crapshoot 2nd argument: lay out the saber teams who’ve made the playoffs presto

9:54	Jeff Sullivan: the 2004 Red Sox started Mark Bellhorn

9:54	Comment From Pirates Hurdles Whoa, Dave’s big move is McCann with the organization tied so heavily to Zunino, odd to say the least.

9:55	Jeff Sullivan: Not hard to see Zunino as being a little too much like JP Arencibia. Also not hard to see him as not being quite ready

9:56	Comment From John Peak/prime Mike Trout or peak/prime Alex Rodriguez? Who’s better?

9:56	Jeff Sullivan: Well, quickly, by our metrics, A-Rod has never quite had a 10-win season. Trout’s already had two

9:56	Jeff Sullivan: But I think when you examine their actual peaks, in retrospect, they’ll be almost identical. Mike Trout is the peak Alex Rodriguez of outfielders

9:57	Comment From Guest Why doesn’t fangraphs have a Runs allower- instead of ERA-?

9:57	Jeff Sullivan: I don’t know. Feels like it should be there

9:57	Comment From Ben Should the Angels go after David Price?

9:57	Jeff Sullivan: They don’t have the pieces to get him

9:58	Comment From NatsFan I’ve seen some posts predicting Ellsbury to that Nats. That’s silly, right?

9:58	Jeff Sullivan: what the hell?

9:58	Comment From Derek Kolten Wong +/- 400 PAs in 2014 with Cardinals (or anywhere in MLB for that matter)

9:58	Jeff Sullivan: I think under

9:59	Comment From Derek Ellsbury decline similar to Damon?

9:59	Jeff Sullivan: You mean virtually not at all?