Jeff Sullivan FanGraphs Chat — 12/2/14
| 9:04 |
: All right, let’s do this |
| 9:04 |
: Made the mistake of starting a twitter conversation right before the scheduled chat time. I’m the worst 🙁 |
| 9:07 |
If a chat goes on fangraphs and there is no Jeff Sullivan around, does it make a sound? |
| 9:07 |
: Pretty sure we can now observe that the answer is no |
| 9:07 |
Bottom to Top is terrible. |
| 9:07 |
: I tried to look for somewhere to change it but I don’t know where to change it 🙁
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|
| 9:07 |
More likely to disappoint in 2015: Nelson Cruz or new CoveritLive interface? |
| 9:07 |
: Cover It Live has always been wonky and it’s not coming off of a career year |
| 9:07 |
Jeff, you seem to really value pitch framing but it seems like teams don’t care as much as you, is this disappointing? |
| 9:08 |
: It’s not disappointing. I’m not invested at all in pitch-framing; it’s not like it’s my principle or discovery or research. It’s actually more interesting that there *isn’t* a market for it, to me, because that causes one to examine potential reasons why. Are we observing a real-time inefficiency? Or are we observing a situation where the numbers show one thing, but we’re being completely misled? |
| 9:08 |
: It’s a fascinating conversation and it’s taking place every day |
| 9:09 |
Who has the better rotation, A’s or Braves |
| 9:09 |
: A’s for now. Would be different with Beachy/Medlen |
| 9:09 |
The dBacks finish………………………….? |
| 9:10 |
: Fourth. Perhaps fifth if the Padres oddly make some win-now moves in a non-competitive year |
| 9:10 |
Is Luis Valbuena enough to land Grandal? |
| 9:10 |
: Not Yasmani Grandal. Maybe a different Grandal |
| 9:10 |
What kind of return could the Jays get for Navarro? |
| 9:11 |
: The kind of return that has us write an InstaGraphs post instead of a FanGraphs post |
| 9:11 |
How much better can Rendon get? |
| 9:12 |
: Realistically, he’ll probably never have another 7-win season. His 2014 was extraordinary. But I can see him settling in around a perennial All-Star. A nice run of 5-win seasons could well be in the cards, given health |
| 9:13 |
So how bad did sandy a read the market? since they dont care about outfield defense, wouldnt you rather have tomas on that deal than a 12 year older cuddyer on his? |
| 9:13 |
: Yeah, but I like risks like Tomas. If anything you could say that maybe Sandy *didn’t* badly misread the market given what Butler signed for, and what Cruz signed for |
| 9:13 |
Is it just me or does it really seem like Nelson Cruz could have some godawful .250/.300/.450 slas line for his money in safeco next year? |
| 9:13 |
: No, it’s not just you |
| 9:15 |
I feel like the Indians should have been able to easily beat the Donaldson trade without even having to give up Lindor. Could they or should they have? |
| 9:16 |
: Not convinced they have an easy Lawrie equivalent. Seems like the A’s pretty highly value that big-league level potential. Lawrie can help right away and according to projections he might not even be that much worse than Donaldson going forward. Indians could deal pitchers or prospects, but the A’s apparently wanted an immediate regular |
| 9:16 |
What’s worse – bottom to top or signing Nelson Cruz for 57 million? |
| 9:16 |
: Nelson Cruz has upside |
| 9:17 |
Chris Denorfia is a month younger than Cruz and projects for half a win less…so…4/48 then? |
| 9:17 |
: Chris Denorfia has fewer career home runs than Cruz hit in 2014. Not saying that’s an entire argument, but that’s a big part of one |
| 9:17 |
With a full OF, will Nava get non-tendered? |
| 9:17 |
: Not necessarily, if they go on to move Napoli |
| 9:19 |
Zunino’s splits are odd. Even when adjusting for ABs, his power numbers seem better against rightys. That just a case of a smaller sample size against lefties? |
| 9:19 |
: Could be he has a different swing, of sorts, against righties; career so far, 50% fly balls against righties, 39% against lefties. Probably, though, it’s noise. Over time, I expect that Zunino’s splits will look more or less normal |
| 9:20 |
With a seemingly important need for veteran leadership in the clubhouse, if the O’s allow Markakis to hit free agency, do the Cubs kick the tires? Is the deal he is looking for too long for the Cubs’ liking? |
| 9:20 |
: Too long, and the Cubs’ roster is basically full. If Markakis wants an expensive three years or a slightly less expensive four, he won’t find them in Chicago |
| 9:20 |
: or at least not in that particular part of Chicago |
| 9:20 |
Do the Braves actually manage to get a bigger haul for Justin Upton than Heyward? |
| 9:20 |
: It’ll be close, and it’ll depend on your evaluation of Shelby Miller, but there’s going to be a difference between what they’re asking for and what they get |
| 9:21 |
Which is the outlier: Travis Wood’s 2013 season or his 2014 season? |
| 9:21 |
: Well, in one of them he had a 4.50 xFIP, and in the other one he had a 4.51 xFIP |
| 9:22 |
: His ERAs have just bounced around where they ought to be. He’s not good, and while he’s not bad, he’d be a sensible non-tender |
| 9:23 |
The Mariners are dumping Michael Saunders for no good reason. The Padres are dumping Yasmani Grandal for no good reason. We know the Padres want some hitters, and the Mariners went after Russell Martin. Dumped-for-no-good-reason challenge trade? (With a secondary piece going to SD?) |
| 9:24 |
: Padres want and deserve a bigger return. Grandal’s a catcher under contract four more years and Saunders is only a little better than the Padres’ current OF blend. If/when they trade Grandal, they’re going to be looking for more of an impact player, I feel like |
| 9:25 |
Do players get paid monthly over a 12 month period? |
| 9:25 |
: I believe they’re paid twice a month, during the season only |
| 9:26 |
: Coaches and trainers, meanwhile, I think are paid year-round |
| 9:26 |
: Players get playoff bonuses, as you know, in part to split the revenue, and in part because it’s “extra work” |
| 9:27 |
Seems like Lester offers are BOS CHI and SFO. What’s your guess and any idea why Gammons got tricked into reporting Lester was going to be visiting STL this week? |
| 9:27 |
: The Cardinals make some sense in theory so it wouldn’t be a leap to hear that they’d arrange a meeting. My guess has Boston slightly in front of Chicago |
| 9:27 |
Is there anything exciting happening in the realm of pitch sequencing analysis? |
| 9:27 |
| 9:28 |
: That would be one example. In a lot of ways it’s the next frontier, but oh my holy crap is it ever difficult to parse |
| 9:28 |
Is CIL tanking to get a better draft pick? I mean, enter doesn’t send comments any more! I actually have to click! This is worse Yuni. |
| 9:28 |
: As I suggest every week: if you can write up better software, please do, and please let us know! We’ll pay for it! |
| 9:28 |
Lester doesn’t sign for below $150 million right? |
| 9:28 |
: If he does, it’s not by much. $150m might be the magic number |
| 9:29 |
what happens in the dbacks outfield now? pollock looked good, they have nowehre else to play trumbo… |
| 9:29 |
: I think they give Trumbo a shot to re-establish value so they can move him in a trade |
| 9:29 |
: Two years left, righty, powerful. Could move in July for a decent return |
| 9:29 |
You and Dave have I think stated that you wouldn’t want to work for a team because of the hours and pay…Is it a market inefficiency that teams maintain employment conditions that deter potential talent, or is the allure still sufficiently strong? |
| 9:30 |
: Allure’s still strong. Teams aren’t hurting for quality candidates. Neither Dave nor I would be great candidates anyhow. In a way the teams are selective for particularly motivated individuals willing to throw a lot away for the opportunity. If you’re motivated by things that aren’t life balance and seeing the outdoors, baseball could be for you |
| 9:31 |
What’s next for the M’s? Rios, Hunter, Gomes? doesn’t seem like they want to trade anyone. |
| 9:31 |
: They’ll land some second- or third-tier righty corner OF and they’ll presumably trade Michael Saunders for some reason |
| 9:31 |
Would you consider Grandal an upgrade over Tyler Flowers? |
| 9:31 |
: I would |
| 9:31 |
How do you value the first-round pick the Mariners lost to get Cruz? |
| 9:32 |
: I’d put it somewhere in the vicinity of $10 million. Obviously that’s not $10 million right away; that would be $10 million in the future, but it’s $10 million of eventual value lost |
| 9:32 |
It sounds like the Braves are looking at Nick Markakis now. I know they have to have someone in right field, but does it make a ton of sense to pick up a 31-year-old for 3-4 years while they’re trying to do the rebuild thing? |
| 9:33 |
: It would never make sense for a team to give four years to Nick Markakis. I get that he’s a contact hitter and he’s the opposite of the kind of player the Braves have had and are actively trying to get rid of, but Markakis, if anything, should go to a team that intends to win in 2015 |
| 9:33 |
How hard is it to build an effective to good bullpen? It seems, given the depth of arms, that an analytically approach could easily develop one. |
| 9:34 |
: I think in theory it seems really simple, but in reality it’s difficult because some guys have trouble adjusting to relief work and it’s just an unpredictable job. Performances fluctuate, and players get hurt throwing at 100% all the time with a lot of breaking balls. It’s key to have probably 10-12 big-league caliber relievers at any one moment |
| 9:34 |
Who makes the most sense for the Jays LF. Cabrera, Markakis, other (trade for Saunders maybe)? |
| 9:34 |
: For many teams, it’s going to be trade for Saunders |
| 9:35 |
Is there still hope for Austin Romine to become a real, decent catcher? Or is meh backup really all we can hope for, a younger Chris Stewart? |
| 9:36 |
: Chris Stewart path. Romine’s bat hasn’t developed and now he’s 26. |
| 9:37 |
Do you think the Jays add any more impact players via FA or Trade? If so, who do you see landing in TO?? Having a heck of time guessing this. |
| 9:39 |
: I think they make one more notable move. Maybe it’s an outfielder, maybe it’s a reliever, maybe it’s a second baseman. Outfielder might be the easiest, and second base could go to Devon Travis. Bullpen might already have enough talent in it and they could well opt away from giving Andrew Miller four guaranteed years |
| 9:39 |
How many years do you think the Twins have until they are in contention? 2018? 2019? Earlier? |
| 9:39 |
: Let’s say 2018. I don’t like projecting that far into the future but they don’t appear close at all to me |
| 9:41 |
what would a hypothetical daniel murphy to the jays get? |
| 9:42 |
: Low- to mid-level prospect or two. Not saying it’s completely correct but Devon Travis is projected by Steamer to hit just as well as Murphy, and Murphy has one year of control remaining and it isn’t particularly cheap |
| 9:42 |
Can the Jays compete with a Dirks/Mayberry platoon in left and Pompey and/or Pillar in center? |
| 9:42 |
: They can, but it would be easier by not doing that |
| 9:43 |
Who would be a good comp for Gattis?….Chris Carter? |
| 9:43 |
: Carter strikes out too much. Gattis is a lot like pre-2014 Mark Trumbo. Gattis technically has additional catching skills, but teams don’t really buy him as a catcher, so that’s mostly something to throw out the window |
| 9:44 |
Sorry if this is explained somewhere I can’t find, but why do NL teams have 300 PA for DH’s on the depth charts? |
| 9:44 |
: I believe that also counts as pinch-hitters for them, or something |
| 9:46 |
Does the potential greivance between Harper and the Nats affect their long-term relationship? Or is it just “part of the business side of the game”? |
| 9:47 |
: People were worried about a damaged relationship when the Angels renewed Mike Trout’s contract that one year near the league minimum. Then he signed one of the best contracts in baseball (for the team). It’s part of the business side, and it’s pretty important for both of them because millions of dollars hang in the balance. However it’s decided, down the road Harper is almost certainly ticketed for free agency |
| 9:47 |
It seems very unlikely the White Sox would include Tim Anderson in a Jeff Samardizja trade. What would be reasonable for one year of Samardizja? |
| 9:48 |
: I don’t know why the White Sox want one year of Samardzija in the first place. They have too many holes |
| 9:49 |
What do you expect from Josh Hamilton’s baseball season in 2015? |
| 9:49 |
: I think he will be a very interesting sort of league-average |
| 9:49 |
.450 SLG for Nelson Cruz seems like it might be high for 2015, right? |
| 9:49 |
: Nah, it’s at least an average projection, and in reality he should do better than that in the next season |
| 9:50 |
Worse signing- Cruz or Hanley? All things taken into account- contract, need, value… |
| 9:50 |
: Hanley projects to be more than twice as good and Boston has more money than Seattle does |
| 9:51 |
Intrigued by your Twitter comments about “not my money” this morning. Seemed like that was your early rationale for being OK with the deal. Did something change, or did I misinterpret your original comments? |
| 9:52 |
: I think it’s a bad deal, but if I were to try to rationalize it, I think it’s okay for the first two years or so, and the Mariners are in a good place at the moment. I think it’s almost $30 million of wasted money in 2017 and 2018, but if you can anticipate that going into it, I think you can to some extent plan around it. The money’s going to hurt, but since it’s already on the books, maybe it makes the M’s that much more likely to try to plug other holes down the road with cheap cost-controlled players |
| 9:53 |
: In short: bad news for 2018. Who the hell knows what 2018 is going to look like? We suck at evaluating future problems, so I’m going to embrace that very human shortcoming, from a fan perspective |
| 9:53 |
Is Dan Duquette actually interested in idiotic stuff like trading for Kemp or signing Torii Hunter or is this all disinfo to try and scare Markakis into giving them a team option for Year 4? |
| 9:53 |
: I think if you’re even considering giving four years to Nick Markakis, it follows that you’d also be interested in a guy like Torii Hunter or another guy like Matt Kemp. I don’t blame Duquette for checking in on Kemp — might as well see how much money the Dodgers might be willing to include |
| 9:55 |
Why do you think Chris Tillman outperformed his peripherals last 3 years? Obviously very good at holding runners, but his height and overhead arm slot seem counter-intuitive to his FB rates. |
| 9:56 |
: He’s a fly-ball pitcher, which leads to a lower BABIP. He doesn’t get stolen against, which leads to a higher strand rate. And the Orioles have played really good defense behind him. The last two years, the Orioles have a team 96 ERA- and 104 FIP- |
| 9:57 |
: Only the Reds and A’s have bigger ERA/FIP gaps in the same direction |
| 9:58 |
Do you think the Mariners trade a pitcher and Saunders for another righty bat, then sign maybe Masterson or Mccarthy? |
| 9:58 |
: More likely I think they sign a righty bat and try to trade Saunders for a pitcher. I don’t think they move Walker/Paxton |
| 9:58 |
Which would be a better fit for the White Sox, Nick Markakis or Melky Cabrera? Neither will cost a draft pick, and both can be signed outright. |
| 9:58 |
: They should be more interested in Cabrera, because he is more good |
| 10:00 |
Jeff- with the Rockies caught yet again in their annual “We’re contending if healthy,” what might be a realistic move to make to get them there? |
| 10:00 |
: If they really wanted to go that way, maybe they should throw money at experimental sorts of arms. Give guarantees to Anderson, Masterson, and Johnson, enough to buy them away from other interested teams, and then see what happens! |
| 10:01 |
Chances that the Cardinals manage to extend Heyward before his contract expires? If they do, and it doesn’t cost half the franchise to do it, that trade starts to look pretty sweet. If they don’t… well, not so sweet, right? |
| 10:01 |
: That kind of depends. If the Cardinals were to sign Heyward for his market value, then the trade will have just given them some sort of exclusivity window. They could in theory have signed Heyward after the year. That would be some value, but not a ton of it. Right now I have trouble seeing the Cardinals making that kind of guarantee, but I’d put the odds around…20-25%? |
| 10:03 |
Is this the year the Yankees just say “screw it” and try to get close to freedom, and pay the Cuban 19 year old wonderkid who found out marrying Guatemalans the new market inefficiency 80m? Better use of resources to be relevant again? |
| 10:04 |
: Depends when Moncada is cleared and elects to sign. As of July 2, the Yankees are out of it, so while they’re highly interested, maybe they’ll run up against the deadline. They are of course the team most able to throw money at Moncada without really feeling it, so right now I’d say they’re my favorites |
| 10:04 |
What’s a realistic trade for Chris Sale? Is the rumored Betts and Owens a good starting point? |
| 10:04 |
: It would be a starting point ,but more realistically, there is no trade for Chris Sale. He’s basically unavailable. The White Sox are trying to build around him. |
| 10:06 |
How about a trade of six years of middle infielder Chris Taylor and three years of reliever Tom Wilhelmsen from Seattle to Washington for six years of outfielder Steven Souza and one year of lefthander Ross Detwiler? Taylor and Souza address long-term needs, Wilhelmsen replaces Rafael Soriano and Detwiler provides rotation depth or a replacement for lefty Joe Beimel in the bullpen. Projected 2015 salaries are $2.1 million for Wilhelmsen and $3.3 million for Detwiler. |
| 10:06 |
: You’re in the ballpark, but the Nationals aren’t really looking to move Souza. He looks to be part of the plan in 2015 and a bigger part of the plan in 2016, so if you move Souza to plug another hole, then you just have a Souza-sized hole elsewhere. They want to turn short-term value into long-term value, not long-term value into different long-term value |
| 10:06 |
Rule 5 draft, any player worth looking at? |
| 10:07 |
: I’m not an expert on this year, but, no |
| 10:07 |
do you think teams forecast stats like WAR (simplistic) to plan for their “win now curve” and try to act accordingly? or they do wait until they begin to see those wins pile up and make bigger moves in a smaller time frame, such as significant offseason or trade deadline moves |
| 10:08 |
: I think teams have a good sense of when they’re going to be competitive, in part powered by their own internal forecasts. They don’t wait to see wins pile up — pieces are more expensive to add in the middle of the year — but no team, also, is sitting here thinking “we’re going to be good in 2018”. Just can’t see that far ahead |
| 10:09 |
regarding the blue jays – lots of good moves to add wins, but given the redsox already project to have a higher WAR and still have the money to add at least 1 if not 2 starters, and given what the jays need (a rotation, bullpen, 2b) how smart is what they are doing? |
| 10:09 |
: The Yankees, right now, are kind of down. The O’s are out some pieces, and the Rays can’t really add, and the Jays already had a core in place. They don’t need to win the division to make the playoffs, *and* the Red Sox just folded in on themselves one year ago. The Jays are trying to end a super-long playoff drought and I think there’s value in that. People are impatient and I don’t think they’ve done anything really irresponsible |
| 10:10 |
With the addition of Adam LaRoche, do the White Sox non-tender Viciedo? He’s not an outfielder, and 1B/DH are locked up with Abreu and LaRoche. |
| 10:10 |
: He has trade value because of his tools |
| 10:10 |
Who do you think will produce more value for his respective team in 2015: Rusney Castillo or Yasmany Tomas? |
| 10:10 |
: Castillo in 2015 by a small amount |
| 10:10 |
Jeff, how do you write so many articles? It seems like every other article I read on here is by you. I appreciate the hard work. |
| 10:11 |
: I’m supposed to write two things a day, per my contract. That’s a lot, but I try to make sure only some of them suck |
| 10:11 |
Does Dayan Viciedo have any trade value? Right handed power seems to be a premium, and Viciedo at age 26 is a potential twenty plus home run threat. |
| 10:12 |
: The value is low, but it’s there. Just last summer the Mariners were reportedly sniffing around. At a projected $4.4 million, though, you’re not moving Viciedo for a plus return package. Either he gets sold for little or the White Sox give him another chance to try to build on his skills |
| 10:13 |
Am I crazy or do players not really sign 6 year deals. I can think of a lot of 5 year deals and a lot of 7 year deals but not 6 year deals. Why is that? |
| 10:13 |
: Jose Abreu signed for six. Yasmany Tomas signed for six (kind of). Zack Greinke signed for six (kind of). |
| 10:15 |
: Couple years ago, Greinke’s was the longest FA contract, at six years, with an opt out. Last year, there were some sevens, but Tanaka is young, and he also has an opt out. Ellsbury went to the Yankees, who, whatever. Cano is and was one of the best players in baseball and the Mariners needed to pay a lot to convince him to shift. Choo looked and looks bad. |
| 10:15 |
: Most free agents hit the market around 30-31 so teams don’t want to go too crazy with the long-term commitments unless you’re talking about someone elite. Mentally there’s a significant gap between 5 and 6 years and I think you see players asking for 6 and teams offering 4, so they compromise |
| 10:15 |
Is it disappointing when you hear players say they don’t like baseball and just do it to earn a (very good) living or do you think thats fairly normal |
| 10:17 |
: It’s a job. It’s a very demanding job! It’s a job they liked enough to pursue in the first place. It’s constantly stressful. I certainly don’t blame players for not watching a lot of baseball at the end of the day — they spend enough time wrapped up in the game during the day and during the 9+ innings. Who wants to watch more baseball highlights before bed? |
| 10:17 |
Is it tougher to be a GM in a pitcher’s park than a hitter’s park? In Safeco, almost every hitter signing will look disappointing to the public since they’ll have less conventional stat production. |
| 10:17 |
: And then it would work the same with pitchers in a hitter’s park. I’d say they’re mostly equivalent |
| 10:17 |
How do you turn the volume off this chat? |
| 10:17 |
: The mute button on your computer |
| 10:18 |
Think it’s safe to assume that the Mariners continue to target Kemp/Upton/Cespedes even after acquiring Cruz? He doesn’t solve their (supposed) outfield problem. |
| 10:18 |
: Maybe Cespedes, probably not Upton or Kemp. They don’t have the players Atlanta would want for Upton — not that they’ll give up — and Kemp would be too long of a commitment |
| 10:18 |
JUp for Paxton and Saunders…who says no? |
| 10:18 |
: The Mariners, because they’re not stupid |
| 10:19 |
I tried ordering 3 customized Ryan Flaherty jerseys as a gag gift for a few O’s friends of mine and the mlb.com store wouldn’t let me put more than one of them in an order. Their system assumed anyone ordering more than one Flaherty jersey must be an error. I don’t have a question I just thought this was funny. |
| 10:20 |
Oakland is reportedly interested in Brock Holt, and I think he makes a lot of sense for them. Is Brock Holt alone enough to get the Shark? If not, how much more would Boston need to add? |
| 10:20 |
: Yeah, no, you’re not getting Jeff Samardzija for Brock Holt. |
| 10:20 |
: You’d be looking at something like Holt, Marrero, and another semi-minor piece |
| 10:21 |
Do you know a lot of these stats that you use off the top of your head or do you specifically look up each player page before answering a question? |
| 10:21 |
: Depends on the player but I have a lot of numbers accidentally memorized |
| 10:22 |
Has anyone done research over whether non English speaking players benefit from having a teammate who speaks their language? |
| 10:23 |
: Not a lot of baseball research in there. I mean you’ll see a guy like Jeremy Guthrie who functions as a part-time translator, and that’s helpful, but *mostly* you’ve got English speakers and Spanish speakers and no clubhouse is short on either. |
| 10:24 |
Is Kemp really so bad a contract to take on? I recognize his massive defensive liability and negative value, but the O’s managed last year with Cruz and even Young spending extensive amounts of time in the field. If the Dodgers had to only give a couple million, couldn’t the O’s get him for little in return (or even a swap for Jiminez as a back-end guy for LA)? Is $18MM AAV or so for him really that much worse than $12MM for Markakis or even the likely $15MM for Cruz they were thinking about for three years? It’s his 30-34 seasons we are talking about, so there is real offensive value there, and surely at some point he will recognize the need to move to DH? |
| 10:25 |
: His contract is worth almost twice as much as Cruz’s, and it’s only one year longer. You’ve got $107 million and five years for a guy coming off a 1.8-win season, projected for a 2.1-win season. I know it seems like Kemp’s shoulder is healthy again, and I know he has real offensive upside. He’s actually projected to be a better hitter than Cruz. But that’s a massive guarantee. It’s like Cole Hamels money, and Cole Hamels has been an ace, and we’ve written here about how Hamels doesn’t actually have a ton of trade value |
| 10:25 |
: With Kemp, the Dodgers need to eat money. If they want to get a good player back, they need to eat even more money |
| 10:26 |
Feels like Saunders could end up the RFer in ATL in a deal that nets one of Gattis or JUp. If that falls thru, Markakis in ATL seems like a fit too. |
| 10:26 |
: Problem with Saunders for Upton is, what’s the secondary piece? The Braves could probably do better in getting an impact-player type |
| 10:27 |
Lindor for Syndergaard. Who says no? |
| 10:27 |
: Indians |
| 10:27 |
Amusing note for whoever asked the .250/.300/.450 question about Cruz: last year in Safeco, .250/.300/.450 would’ve been a 117 wRC+. Looks even better if you consider the uneven handedness park factors, or if you use Blengino’s. That’s probably a better performance than Steamer pegs him for. |
| 10:28 |
: It’s funny how extreme ballparks and a diminished offensive environment warp our perspective of numbers. A .450 SLG in Safeco is, yeah, pretty darn good |
| 10:29 |
Are contract lengths/amounts subject to irrational biases? Do you think front offices herd their bids around rumored/reported numbers? |
| 10:29 |
: Wouldn’t it go the other way around? Wouldn’t the reporters be reporting numbers that have been offered, mostly? I think you see contract herding because teams have similar evaluations of identical players |
| 10:30 |
Roughly 25% of all major league pitchers have had Tommy John surgery. If the surgery did not exist, those pitchers would be replaced by pitchers currently in the minor leagues (or pitching with greatly reduced effectiveness). Doesn’t this have to have at least some effect on the balance between pitching and hitting in the major leagues? |
| 10:31 |
: On the one hand, it’s good for pitchers, because they can come back from something that would’ve ended their careers some decades ago. On the other hand, this isn’t exactly a new thing anymore, and it seems like more and more pitchers are getting hurt and missing time, as they throw longer and harder. |
| 10:31 |
Are the Cardinals the current frontrunners in the NL? |
| 10:31 |
: Nationals |
| 10:31 |
Moncada likley to sign this winter? Any word on that? And please tell me that it won’t be the Angels, Yankees, Cubs, or Sox that sign him. Thanks! |
| 10:31 |
: Kiley’s your man, but Moncada needs to be cleared first, and then July 2 becomes an important date. Before that and after that, there’s a different pool of potential suitors |
| 10:32 |
| 10:32 |
Do player get paid cash, direct deposit or script? |
| 10:32 |
: I believe most opt for direct deposit |
| 10:32 |
Do we know how OOZ plays are measured for RZR? I see some disagreement between players making a large number of OOZ plays and UZR numbers. Seems counterintuitive. |
| 10:32 |
: I recommend just looking at UZR and DRS. Pretty much never make use of the other stuff |
| 10:33 |
Putting on your GM hat/fedora, would you care about trading within the division? If so, at what talent level and years remaining would it not be a concern |
| 10:33 |
: Wouldn’t really be a factor to me. Seems irrational |
| 10:33 |
I want the Braves to pick up Aoki for a 2 year $20 million deal as a place holder/decent player. This Markakis news scares me. |
| 10:33 |
: Yes, that would be perfectly sensible |
| 10:33 |
whats the next move for the sox? As specific as possible. |
| 10:34 |
: I think it’s pretty clear Cespedes is gone for a pitcher. There’s some chance they also move Napoli, in the same move or in a separate one. The longer Jon Lester waits, the more likely it is Cespedes gets dealt first. |
| 10:34 |
Pitcher defense: overrated, underrated or properly rated? |
| 10:35 |
: Properly rated. Seldom do they get meaningfully difficult opportunities. Many bunts are fielded by other guys. The best thing a pitcher can do on the mound, that isn’t pitching, is controlling the running game |
| 10:35 |
It seems like competition for the best FA often ends with a team going in for an extra year. Could Lester end up getting something like 7/$160M? |
| 10:35 |
: I think he’ll max out around 6/140 – 6/150, and then he’ll just have to pick which city he likes more |
| 10:36 |
Do you believe the Mariners want to move Saunders? I mean, we assume that most FO know their assets and know what marginal gains are all about. There is no way Saunders is a cancer in the clubhouse. He’s a great dude. So why the rampant speculation that he’s gone? It just argues that Seattle are idiots. /pregnant pause |
| 10:36 |
: Seems like they want a more dependable player. From what I’ve heard Saunders isn’t a McClendon favorite. Doesn’t mean Saunders gets dumped for nothing; other teams will place value on him, and the Mariners know that |
| 10:36 |
Why is there such a lack of quality catchers? Why aren’t systems developing more talent or, at worst, turning solid upside guys into catchers? |
| 10:37 |
: Seems like there are good catchers. But it’s maybe the most difficult job in baseball. |
| 10:37 |
True or False. The Reds should shop Chapman. |
| 10:37 |
: In a market where Andrew Miller and David Robertson might be getting four years, it would make sense to see what teams have to offer |
| 10:37 |
Could you see the yankees signing both Miller and Robertson? If so, how awesome (on paper) would their BP be with Betances, Warren, Kelley and Co. |
| 10:37 |
: I don’t think any team would give eight guaranteed years to two FA relievers |
| 10:38 |
Why are we not hearing anything about the yankees search for a SS? Slow developping market, or they are doing a good job of hiding it? |
| 10:38 |
: the SS market in general has been quiet |
| 10:38 |
: It’ll pick up in a week or so |
| 10:38 |
Do you trust Andrew Miller? |
| 10:38 |
: Some, but I think I’ll end up preferring the Zach Duke contract |
| 10:40 |
Dave Cameron Called Brad Miller a better player than Starlin Castro. Your thoughts on this?.. Thats putting a HELL of a lot of weight in a 70 game audition in 2013. |
| 10:41 |
: To me they’re roughly equivalent. They’re also basically the same age. I would be happy to be starting either |
| 10:41 |
Any chance the Nats could build a deal around Clippard and a prospect for Chapman? |
| 10:41 |
: The Reds should be looking for more control, not less |
| 10:41 |
In your estimation, is the Mariner belief that they are a true talent 85-90 win team false? |
| 10:41 |
: No, they’re good |
| 10:41 |
Are either Betts or Boegart moed prior the opening day? |
| 10:41 |
: Doubt it |
| 10:42 |
4th outfielder quest: do you prefer A) scott van slyke, B) chris denorfia, C) torii hunter or D) other? |
| 10:42 |
: Van Slyke is super neat |
| 10:42 |
Would we still be able to tell which league is better if interleague play was abolished? Or would it just be sort of unknowable/speculative? |
| 10:42 |
: More speculative, but we’d evaluate the performances of players who changed leagues |
| 10:43 |
Did not know you were an outsdoorsman, what do you like to do? |
| 10:43 |
: Hike, climb, backpack, camp, the usual stuff. Get away from screens, basically. Best feeling in the world is a successful new campfire |
| 10:44 |
Would the yankees be comfortable going into 2015 with this as their rotation? Tanaka, CC, Pineda, McCarthy, Greene, (Nova in may), and David Phelps.. Should they be? |
| 10:44 |
: Yes and yes |
| 10:45 |
Another sign that teams generally don’t believe in pitch framing: Gattis is actually a plus pitch framer but no one seems to be interested in letting him catch. |
| 10:45 |
: He’s not a great blocker or thrower, he only seems like a slightly above-average framer, and he’s an awful big guy. Teams don’t like to see big guys crouching that often because it seems like it’s not good for their longevity |
| 10:45 |
best guess on a Chris Young contract? |
| 10:45 |
: 1 year, $6 million-ish |
| 10:46 |
Which are we more likely to see in the next 50 years: left handed-throwing shortstop or switch pitcher? |
| 10:46 |
: Switch pitcher |
| 10:46 |
Help me out here: Do the Red Sox trade Victorino? It doesn’t seem like they could get much in return at all. But it seems awful to bench Vicotorino,who put up 5.6 WAR in 2013. And you have to imagine Betts and Castillo have everyday jobs. I’m tired of hearing people say wait for an injury. You don’t have players of that caliber on the bench just in case. |
| 10:46 |
: No need to trade him. You can absolutely find time for four guys for three spots with Victorino/Castillo/Betts/Ramirez. There will be days off, and injuries, and perhaps some under-performance |
| 10:47 |
: Let’s say three outfield positions get 2,100 plate appearances over a year. In theory you could give 525 PA to four different guys. |
| 10:47 |
What is with the giant yet beautiful mountain picture? |
| 10:47 |
: so beautiful |
| 10:47 |
: and CiL basically now mandates a huge image up top. I don’t know how to get rid of it |
| 10:47 |
Is Nick Markakis really that much better than Gregor Blanco? |
| 10:47 |
: No |
| 10:48 |
: FanGraphs mission for the offseason: criticize Nick Markakis |
| 10:48 |
Which player are you most excited to watch in 2015? |
| 10:48 |
: The answer will be Felix Hernandez until he’s retired or broken |
| 10:48 |
It seems to me that if the money was similar I’d much rather have Kemp than Markakis. |
| 10:48 |
: Unfortunately the money is not similar! |
| 10:49 |
What does Lawrie’s value mean for Mookie Betts? Betts generated more value last year than Lawrie has since 2012, has more defensive value, and several more years of team control. in Lawrie can land Donaldson, could Betts hypothetically land any pitcher in baseball? Could he land McCutchen? |
| 10:50 |
: Well, Lawrie alone didn’t land Donaldson. But if you’re looking for one website that absolutely places Mookie Betts up on a trade-value pedestal, you’ve come to the right place |
| 10:50 |
How would you find the $$ figure of a prospect in regards to their possible 6 year value? Something like OFP with an average WAR over the 6 years then an average $/WAR? |
| 10:50 |
: The usual two links: |
| 10:50 |
| 10:50 |
| 10:52 |
Cleveland seems like they’re at a point (considering success cycle, their projected quality, and their divisional competition) where a small move (an add of a couple WAR) could make a fairly big difference in their playoff potential. Any moves you see that make sense for them, or any thoughts on why they’re so quiet? |
| 10:53 |
: They don’t really have many glaring weaknesses, they’re not a big-budget team, and they have a lot of money tied up in guys like Swisher and Bourn. The rotation is packed, for cheap. The infield is *mostly* packed. As with many teams, I recommend one Michael Saunders. I think they look for a second-tier or third-tier outfielder |
| 10:53 |
When you say. “he projects….” what do you really mean? That takes you off the hook to a great extent. I’d prefer to know what you think about a particular player than merely ceding to a projection program. |
| 10:53 |
: That’s fine, and in certain cases I will disagree with a projection, but in many cases, the projection will be smarter than I am. If someone makes a habit of saying things that differ from the projections, then on balance that person will be mostly wrong |
| 10:54 |
What pitcher could you see the Pirates going after in the trade market? I think a deal for Ian Kennedy makes a decent amount of sense, not sure what they’d need to give up though. |
| 10:54 |
: For some reason now I have this idea in my head of the Pirates trading something for Blake Treinen |
| 10:55 |
How much of the Kemp money would the Dodgers have to pick up for it to make sense for any team? |
| 10:55 |
: Off the top of my head, at least like $30-35 million |
| 10:55 |
: Obviously, it’s steep |
| 10:55 |
Do you think Boston is planning on Ortiz falling apart in 2015? Many have speculated on who would take his spot further down the road (there are many options), but do you think the Red Sox would consider benching him sooner and not exercising their team option in 2016? |
| 10:56 |
: Ortiz is part of their immediate contention plan. I don’t think they’re banking on anything other than an ordinary David Ortiz performance |
| 10:56 |
What’s your best guess at free agency $/WAR by 2015 season start? It’s started off pretty high with Butler/Cuddyer/Cruz all looking like 10MM per win. |
| 10:56 |
: $7 million or so. Maybe $7.5 million. You’re seeing guys sign early because they’re getting deals good enough to convince them not to wait around for something better. Later on, players will be forced to settle |
| 10:57 |
Are you and Dave afraid to write with conviction? Having read your Cruz and Donaldson pieces, it seems like you are afraid to say “The Mariners are wrong” or “Knowing what we know, you can’t make sense of the Donaldson trade”. You seem to fall into a trap you end up defending moves by making weak and VERY hypothetical arguements on crazy ways that they could make sense. Despite nearly everyone including people within the game think they are bad moves. Aren’t you just abandoning Occam’s razor by doing that? |
| 10:58 |
: For one thing, Dave is very much *not* afraid to write with conviction |
| 10:59 |
: For another thing, it takes maybe one sentence or one paragraph to offer an opinion. It was declared, here, that Cruz was an overpay. It was declared, here, that the A’s made a perplexing trade in isolation. That’s not what’s interesting. The interesting bit — the bit worth writing about — is what the explanation might be. *Why* was a transaction made? What is the team thinking? Where might things be right, and where might things be wrong? How can we make sense of a guy like Billy Beane trading a guy like Josh Donaldson, given that it’s not what we’d expect? |
| 11:00 |
: FanGraphs isn’t a report-card website. That wouldn’t be a fun website to write for. Analysis doesn’t stop with “good move” or “bad move” |
| 11:00 |
So the White Sox’s plan is to build around a pitcher who basically has a stick of dynamite strapped to his elbow? |
| 11:00 |
: Does anyone actually know if Sale comes with a higher risk than any other pitcher? He throws weird. So what? |
| 11:01 |
Of all the Cuban signees in the past 3-4 years, who’s going to be the best 3-4 years from now? |
| 11:01 |
: Puig |
| 11:01 |
What did you think about what Henry Schulman was saying about the site on twitter yesterday? |
| 11:01 |
: Didn’t see it |
| 11:01 |
Is Ubaldo salvageable? Would a bad contract swap for him sense for Theo/Jed if they strike out on Lester. It appears as if Ubaldo’s health remains intact. |
| 11:01 |
: Yeah, teams have called on him. The ability is still there, he’s just kind of screwed up. If the O’s eat some money, or accept a different bad contract, Ubaldo can be dealt |
| 11:02 |
Byrd to the Mariners seems like a decent fit, no? He plays good defense (+6 DRS and 3.8 UZR last year). The question will be about his bat (Steamer seemed to project 2015 pretty heavily off of his bad September where he saw very irregular playing time – based on the Phillies trying to see what they had for 2015). But wouldn’t he be a good compliment to bat 5th or 6th in that lineup? |
| 11:02 |
: Yep, I like Byrd as a short-term something |
| 11:02 |
So Jeff – basically, would you rather Miller or Robertson? |
| 11:02 |
: Miller, I think |
| 11:03 |
I know opt out clauses are usually heavily in favor of the player. But all else being equal, is there really a downside in throwing one in for Lester or Scherzer after four years? It seems like if Lester would opt out of $25 million per for his 35-36 year old seasons, his next team would gladly take it. |
| 11:03 |
: The opt-out basically allows a player to decide which way he’ll make more money. If a guy projects to make more money than he’s guaranteed over the remainder of his contract, the team shouldn’t want for him to opt out, even if he poses an age-related risk. The opt-out is pure value for the player and it’s worth several million dollars |
| 11:04 |
Didn’t the Twins have a story about how none of the coaching staff could speak Spanish? |
| 11:04 |
: Is that true? That’s stupid if true. |
| 11:04 |
Yesterday, Dan posed the idea that Hamels has more value to a contender than surplus analysis gives him credit for (not *crazy* value, but elevated from the typical analysis). The idea being that if a team is in real contention now (i.e. Red Sox) instead of 2 years from now (i.e. Cubs), they probably should have a higher value on him. If you had to guess, how much do you think that “contention surplus” adds to his trade value? $5-10 M? |
| 11:05 |
: That seems reasonable. You get a short-term inflated $/WAR, but you also consider that there are always available alternatives. |
| 11:05 |
Under what scenario do you see the M’s moving Paxton or Walker, if any? |
| 11:05 |
: More than a one-year player coming back. The M’s don’t have any pitching depth. |
| 11:06 |
Can you name a single West African (or non-South African) player? I’d love to see a pie/proportion graph depicting country of origin for MLB players. |
| 11:06 |
| 11:06 |
: Kabul, Afghanistan! http://www.baseball-referen… |
| 11:07 |
Thoughts on umpire Dale Scott coming out as homosexual? Cant think of an openly gay baseball player. Good for him. |
| 11:07 |
: Didn’t have a chance to read that article before the chat started, but obviously, yeah, it’s a good story and another step on the path toward total acceptance. |
| 11:08 |
Re Kemp: Isn’t that the exact reason why the Dodgers probably won’t trade him. He’s worth more to them than any other team and now without Hanley, he’s probably their 2nd or 3rd best offensive player. If you’re gonna eat money, might as well eat Ethier’s contract |
| 11:08 |
: Dodgers are probably going to end up agreeing |
| 11:08 |
I want the Jays to sign Nori Aoki to a two-year, $20.5M deal. Sensible? |
| 11:08 |
: Yep |
| 11:08 |
How horrible would the A’s have to be and for how long for Beane to get fired? Is there a person in baseball with as much job security as him? |
| 11:09 |
: He’s there until he doesn’t want to be, basically. |
| 11:09 |
: Which means he’s there until he loses enough interest in the game |
| 11:09 |
Franklin Gutierrez. If he can avoid rupturing his spleen on the way to the bathroom, you’d think he’d be a valuable 4th outfielder for a good team like Yanks or Giants, yes? |
| 11:09 |
: Not worth a fourth-outfielder commitment. All he is is a spring-training NRI. Absolutely no depending on him. |
| 11:10 |
My Sportiva Solutions are a bit tight, and shoe recommendations? |
| 11:10 |
: How long have you had them? They’ll stretch out some. Maybe go a half-size higher, but, I love my Sportivas |
| 11:11 |
Or so the story goes. But isn’t that a really dumb negotiating tactic? Couldn’t you get a good deal from Seattle without Walker and Paxton – perhaps inflated specifically BECAUSE everyone else is asking for Walker and Paxton? Why would teams always hold out for other teams’ best players? |
| 11:12 |
: Presumably this is a reference to like Upton and Gattis and Kemp. Issue with the Mariners is, beyond Walker and Paxton, they don’t really have particularly appealing young pitching to move. So there’s a big gap between them and the next-best guy. So you can see why teams would be stubborn. There’s Maurer, but he doesn’t really look like a starter anymore. |
| 11:13 |
: From the M’s perspective, this is only really true so long as they’re determined to land a big-time power righty. The Royals kind of just demonstrated that you don’t need that to be good, so maybe the Mariners should’ve been more creative, but here we are and they did what they did |
| 11:13 |
In the aftermath of the Lester sweepstakes what will Shields deal look like? |
| 11:13 |
: 4/70 or something |
| 11:14 |
Baez + Alcantara + C.J. Edwards for Cole Hamels. Who hangs up first? |
| 11:14 |
: The Cubs would talk to their provider to try to get the Phillies’ number blocked |
| 11:14 |
Is McCarthy going back to the Yankees or do you think he moves out to a pitchers park with some heavy marine air to enhance his stat line and do the Lord’s work, etc? |
| 11:14 |
: I think he ends up staying |
| 11:14 |
: All right, I need to get going. More to do, more to write |
| 11:15 |
: So thank you everybody for hanging out, and I’m sorry for what I didn’t or couldn’t address. We’ll do it again next week at the same time — from the winter meetings! — and until then, be well and have great days |
Jeff made Lookout Landing a thing, but he does not still write there about the Mariners. He does write here, sometimes about the Mariners, but usually not.
With a seemingly important need for veteran leadership in the clubhouse, if the O’s allow Markakis to hit free agency, do the Cubs kick the tires? Is the deal he is looking for too long for the Cubs’ liking?
Where would the Cubs put him? They already have Soler in right, seem to want to keep left potentially open for Bryant, and Markakis didn’t even have the range for center during a rookie year cameo.
Why do they need veteran leadership?
He already is a free agent.