Jeff Sullivan FanGraphs Chat — 12/24/13

December 24, 2013

9:01	Comment From Dave Do you hate your boss for making your work today? Do you wish he’d tell you to just bag it and go do something else instead?

9:01	Jeff Sullivan: He didn’t make me work today! I’m doing this of my own volition, but I figure I’ll only chat for an hour or so before doing something else with or near the family

9:02	Jeff Sullivan: But that depends on the audience. If everybody’s otherwise occupied, I’ll get rid of this and no one will ever know it attempted to happen!

9:03	Comment From Evan Where does Balfour go now? Crain?

9:03	Comment From Sam Do you think the Rays are favorites to land Balfour at this point?

9:04	Jeff Sullivan: Balfour’s going to be an interesting one — the Rays will be in there provided his price is lower than it was, but if the Mariners get somewhat bold or miss out on other targets they’ve been asking about a veteran closer type and Balfour could now cost a lot less than Rodney

9:04	Comment From Guest If no other team steps up, any chance the Mets swoop in and sign Drew about a month from now?

9:05	Comment From Guest Where do you think Stephen Drew ends up? And for what?

9:06

Jeff Sullivan: This one is so tricky. I’ve been meaning to write about Drew for some time but he’s not the only guy on the market who’s playing the part of the new Kyle Lohse. I just keep thinking Mets and off the top of my head I’d say something like $20m/2yr but his market is only a little more open than Kendrys Morales’ and Morales’ market is depressing

9:06	Comment From Bruce Whats this? A present for us Jews?

9:06	Jeff Sullivan: A present for all people, some of whom are Jewish

9:07

Comment From Tap Rat
I’ve noticed that in your writing, you’ve seemingly become less and less willing to reach absolute conclusions. You are willing to see most plays, and most transactions from both sides. I’ve noticed you give the benefit of the doubt to front offices, who you sometimes note are probably at least as informed and intelligent as the lot of us. You make wonderful observations from unique perspectives, but you are very careful in parsing those observations. You seem to be getting further and further into the grey. I love your writing, for what that’s worth, but I wonder: are you have an existential crisis in your relationship with baseball?

9:09

Jeff Sullivan: I’d say it comes and goes, and sometimes it’s just about writing with a little nuance given how many sides there are to literally everything. But I am afraid we’ll reach a point of borderline irrelevance, where the teams are so much better informed that we won’t be able to say much of anything meaningful. How quickly will our analysis develop, relative to that of the teams making the decisions? It’s an easy sport to write about until it becomes a difficult sport to write about, and then once it’s difficult, it’s almost always difficult

9:09	Jeff Sullivan: But it’s not difficult if some team signs Nelson Cruz for $75m/5yr. That would just be moronic

9:09	Comment From Desperate Mariner Are Corey Hart and Nelson Cruz really incapable of playing a full season of outfield? Does that offensive combo make up for the defense?

9:11	Jeff Sullivan: No, they can handle it, they’d just be comfortably below-average. Hart’s coming off double knee surgery and Cruz looks to the eye like a complete disaster. And no, they don’t hit well enough to justify that kind of defensive sacrifice

9:12	Comment From Cano Gimme the NL playoff teams in 2014

9:12	Jeff Sullivan: Cardinals!

9:12	Jeff Sullivan: Dodgers!

9:12	Jeff Sullivan: Nationals!

9:12	Jeff Sullivan: Braves!

9:12	Jeff Sullivan: Pirates!

9:14	Comment From Sean what was your favorite Christmas gift of all time?

9:15	Jeff Sullivan: When I was a kid in San Diego I got a chance to fly to Arizona and see Randy Johnson face the Cardinals in his first home start of 2001. Randy Johnson was and is my favorite pitcher ever so that was pretty special, even if it might not be my actual favorite ever

9:16	Jeff Sullivan: Randy got destroyed and he lost to Rick Ankiel

9:16	Jeff Sullivan: In that game I was introduced to the existence of one Albert Pujols

9:17	Comment From Terry Is Arenando really a top 3 Defensive 3B in NL going forward?

9:17	Jeff Sullivan: Maybe top 1! If Juan Uribe doesn’t go crazy again

9:17	Comment From Rob G Where does Tanaka land? NYY? Texas? Seattle?

9:17	Jeff Sullivan: Yankees, if anywhere

9:17	Comment From LarryA Dont most teams, like the rays have better in-house options than grant Balfour?

9:18	Jeff Sullivan: Probably not better — Balfour’s good — and it’s not like every team only needs one relief pitcher in the bullpen

9:18	Comment From David What pitching stat do you look at the most? Is SIERA something you use?

9:18	Jeff Sullivan: FIP-/xFIP-. never used SIERA once, don’t know the point of it

9:18	Comment From Bruce Has there been studies that look into whether “less-desireable” teams have to pay more for free agents than other teams?

9:19	Jeff Sullivan: I don’t know of a bigger study but I feel pretty confident in asserting that it’s usually just money that makes the difference. If you go by WAR/$ you probably won’t find much of an inequality. Obviously, there are always exceptions, since free agency is a case-by-case basis

9:20	Comment From Greyson Which legitimately in contention team has has the worst offseason? I’d love to say the Tigers, but the Orioles could claim it too.

9:20	Jeff Sullivan: The Orioles’ offseason is seriously bumming me out

9:20	Comment From Todd Which team has improved the most so far this off-season?

9:21	Jeff Sullivan: Honestly probably the Mariners just because of the Cano signing. But there’s a lot of offseason left

9:21	Comment From Cowboy Roy How much do you enjoy hypothetical scenario baseball questions?

9:21	Jeff Sullivan: Depends how rushed I’m feeling but I’m usually game

9:22	Comment From Slug What do you think of the Braves’ offseason?

9:22	Jeff Sullivan: I must’ve missed it. When did that happen?

9:22	Comment From Mark Will the Royals add a starter to slot in between Shields and Guthrie?

9:22	Jeff Sullivan: I think they’re out of money, more or less. Going to be counting on some youth to fill in the gaps

9:22	Comment From Uncle Tio Do the Rangers need to find a solid DH now (such as Morales) to solidify the lineup or do they roll with a Moreland plus a RH platoon partner?

9:23	Jeff Sullivan: They already traded Ian Kinsler for a DH, they’re just going to use him as a first baseman. I suspect they’ll go forward with Moreland and they’ll cycle a few other guys through when Moreland’s off or playing another position

9:24	Jeff Sullivan: They’ll get some kind of bench guy in the next month or two

9:25	Comment From Jon Daniels How soon will I regret having Choo/Fielder on my payroll?

9:25	Jeff Sullivan: Offseason after next

9:25	Comment From Conrad One last move for the Mariners?

9:25	Jeff Sullivan: They’ll make more than one move, but they want a starting pitcher and right now that market is stuck in traffic

9:25	Comment From Desperate Mariner Is there any chance that one of the Domestic Three sign for 2 or 3 years as opposed to 4 or 5?

9:26	Jeff Sullivan: I could see Jimenez settling for three, given his own unreliability. Realistically Santana should probably get three as well but someone will give him more than that

9:27	Comment From LarryA How exactly did Edwin Encarnacion “put it all together” a few years ago?

9:27	Jeff Sullivan: It’s just better selectivity, really, but Encarnacion is so easy to forget when you’re talking about the best hitters in baseball

9:28	Jeff Sullivan: You look at him and you’d never think “that guy walks more than he strikes out”

9:28	Jeff Sullivan: He’s amazing! Nobody cares!

9:28	Comment From Cowboy Roy Have the Rangers done enough so far this off season to reclaim the AL West from the A’s?

9:30	Jeff Sullivan: I think they have a very slight advantage, although the A’s have incredible depth. Off the top of my head I’d say Rangers 32%, A’s 28%, Angels 25%, Mariners 15%, Astros participation award

9:30	Comment From Guest If Tanaka is posted what kind of contract do you see him signing for being that Darvish signed for 6/$56?

9:30	Jeff Sullivan: 6/$110

9:31	Comment From James You mention Morales. Any chance he doesn’t sign till after the draft? Ok there is a chance but is it a plausible chance?

9:31	Jeff Sullivan: I think ultimately the Orioles cave and sign Morales just to do something

9:31

Comment From AJ
Thanks for your article about Shin-Soo Choo’s splits. Clearly the splits are less exploitable than previously thought — but were you surprised by how little it was? Do you think a smart team could do a better job exploiting it? Also, I wonder how changes in bullpen/pitcher usage has affected it, or will affect it going forward

9:32

Jeff Sullivan: I was surprised — communicating with Dave during the process, we both figured it would be more exploitable, but for whatever reasons it just isn’t. I think right-handed closers are a big factor, and teams just aren’t going to pull their closers because a lefty is at the plate. Not during this lifetime. It all basically comes down to “Choo might have troubles batting in the eighth”

9:33	Comment From Paddy OSullivan and the Portlandians Do you ever read LL, or would that be like stalking the Facebook page of an ex you broke up with

9:33	Jeff Sullivan: I don’t really have a reason to read Mariners blogs

9:33

Comment From chris
How do you like the Mets chances to trade Ike? I’ve wondered if they will just sit on him if they can’t get Segura from the Brewers.. honestly think its right move when you look at his career compared to Chris Davis/Jose Bautista etc.. what do you think can he break out in his late 20’s?

9:33	Jeff Sullivan: Segura??

9:34	Jeff Sullivan: I think a problem is that the Mets simultaneously see a talented player and a player they don’t want anymore

9:34	Jeff Sullivan: And they’re having trouble finding a match with the Brewers, and there isn’t a big 1B market out there anymore

9:35	Jeff Sullivan: Forced to guess I’d say the Mets eventually relent and trade Davis to the Brewers for less than they’ve wanted

9:36	Comment From Brandon How big of a disadvantage do you think teams having hitf/x data puts us at?

9:36	Jeff Sullivan: Slight, but (A) I don’t think it changes everything, and (B) there are teams that hardly even put it to use. Many of the conclusions, we probably already know, or could guess

9:36	Jeff Sullivan: Man, though, I want to know which pitchers allow harder and less hard contact

9:36

Comment From SMC
Isn’t it an assumption that teams are more informed? Assuming (yes, an assumption) arguendo that the Geoff Baker story is true, for example, is it not at least arguable that teams are not more informed, or at least sabermetrics is advancing at a faster rate than front office knowledge and so will, at some point, catch up?

9:37	Jeff Sullivan: Well, for one thing, the Mariners are a lot more informed than we are in other ways. Baseball’s got a lot more going on than just sabermetrics

9:38	Jeff Sullivan: And, over time, every team will trend toward being as smart as it can be, and they’re just going to get data packages that won’t be available for the public consumption. PITCHf/x is great and free. The rest of it isn’t and won’t be

9:39	Comment From SMC No love for the 2014 Reds?

9:39	Comment From Walt J. Jeff, I’m very concerned about my Reds. What can I do? Any trades out there?

9:39	Jeff Sullivan: This is why no love. The general manager is asking me for tips the day before Christmas

9:40	Jeff Sullivan: I think that’s a fine team, and a team that isn’t quite good enough as it stands. It’s also not an easy team to tweak, given restrictions

9:40	Comment From NIck Is Arroyo enough of an upgrade for the Nationals’ 5th spot that they should take a look at signing him?

9:41	Jeff Sullivan: Sure, take a look, why not. I can’t get a read on his market and he might end up cheap

9:42	Comment From LarryA Does Kurt Suzuki travel from team to team with the sole purpose of blocking young catching prospects?

9:42	Jeff Sullivan: Yeah, he’s kind of an ass

9:43	Comment From Andrew How about the AL?

9:43	Jeff Sullivan: This is about AL playoff teams, so:

9:43	Jeff Sullivan: Rangers!

9:43	Jeff Sullivan: Tigers!

9:43	Jeff Sullivan: Red Sox!

9:43	Jeff Sullivan: Rays!

9:43	Jeff Sullivan: A’s!

9:43	Jeff Sullivan: Exchange Yankees for Rays in event of Tanaka

9:43	Comment From Prich Making you work today: Dave never told us his parents were Scrooge and The Wicked Witch of the West…

9:44	Jeff Sullivan: Dave was basically like “do what you want” and I’m a creature of habit and I had an hour or so to kill before I can watch Breaking Bad episodes with my stepdad who’s watching for the first time

9:44	Comment From Nick Is .260/.350/.460 realistic for a full season of Matt Davidson?

9:44	Jeff Sullivan: Let’s call it, say, an 80-percentile PECOTA

9:45	Comment From Rays 7th Infielder Why do the Rays’ and A’s approaches work so well during the regular season, but almost always flame out come playoff time? Is the postseason more or less a toss-up because all of the participants are so easily matched?

9:45	Jeff Sullivan: Honest answer is the obvious, cliche answer: there’s so much noise in the playoffs we can’t arrive at truly meaningful conclusions

9:46	Jeff Sullivan: It’s hard to overlook the A’s recent history but unless someone presents a viable theory as to why they lose in October I’m just comfortable assuming there’s nothing to it but unhappy chance

9:46	Jeff Sullivan: The odds are always far greater that you’re going to lose in the postseason than advance

9:46	Comment From Matt Are you surprised that someone hasn’t snapped up Jason Hammel yet? What are your thoughts on him, going forward?

9:47	Jeff Sullivan: He’s coming off a bad year with an injury and the last I saw he was looking for 3 or 4 years

9:47	Jeff Sullivan: Like the rest of the pitchers, he’s going to have to wait for Tanaka to get resolved

9:47	Comment From Aidan Are the Royals actual contenders or just the lukewarm spoilers they were last year? By extension, how close is the Central/WC?

9:48	Jeff Sullivan: They might be like the 7th-best team in the AL or so, which puts them close enough to the race. They’ll play meaningful baseball again for a while. The WC is very close, as it will always be, and the Central is probably still Tigers by a handful of games

9:48	Comment From Baseball is the worlds sport Do you think Tanaka will be posted by Christmas?

9:48	Jeff Sullivan: Decision’s supposed to be today or tomorrow, right?

9:48	Comment From Tim What do you think about Billy Hamilton starting next year?

9:49	Jeff Sullivan: I think it’s not a good position for a contending team to be in

9:49	Comment From Guest what do you suggest a jewish person does on christmas?

9:49	Jeff Sullivan: go for a hike

9:49	Comment From LarryA Do things like the Mariners signing Robbie Canos useless minor-leaguer cousin happen all the time, and we just dont hear about it?

9:49	Jeff Sullivan: They don’t happen all the time but they can be neat perks. The Mariners have also had Felix’s lousy older brother for some time now

9:50	Comment From T On your last article, how did you set 1,500 PAs total, with 750 against lefties and 750 against righties?

9:50	Jeff Sullivan: It was all manual. I pulled the split minimums, then I went to overall leaderboards, then I messed around with VLOOKUPs

9:50	Comment From Ms sympo What offer you will make to Tanaka as Seattle GM if available?

9:50	Jeff Sullivan: $120m/6yr. What the hell, why not

9:50	Comment From SMC Does anyone really believe Juan Uribe will repeat 2013?

9:51	Jeff Sullivan: No, but he’s not being paid to do that

9:51	Comment From Brian Hennessy Over/Under Xander Bogaerts WAR at 3.5 for next year?

9:51	Jeff Sullivan: Under

9:51	Comment From Spencer So you think that if Tanaka is posted the Yankees scrap plan 189?

9:51	Jeff Sullivan: They’re already so close at this point. I don’t know quite what they’re doing but I think they’d go over for Tanaka

9:51	Comment From Guest whats wrong with siera?

9:52	Jeff Sullivan: I don’t know, I don’t know anything about it. I just don’t see the point in another estimator when we already have what we have

9:52	Comment From Ryno If you are M’s GM, who do you add to the 25 man roster?

9:52	Jeff Sullivan: An outfielder, a starter, and a catcher, and I subtract a first baseman

9:52	Comment From Brandon re: SIERA–It’s good when you have small sample sizes (about 50 IP).

9:52	Jeff Sullivan: Nothing’s good when you have small sample sizes

9:53	Comment From Mission Jetty Looking back, what do you now think of the Cashner-Rizzo trade?

9:53	Jeff Sullivan: Still good for the Cubs. Young position player for older pitcher?

9:53	Comment From Harponeiratera if you could watch any of the following ABs, which one would it be?: Walter Johnson vs Babe; Feller vs DiMaggio; Koufax vs Mays; or Unit vs Bonds?

9:54	Jeff Sullivan: oh sweet baby jesus christ

9:54	Jeff Sullivan: Gut tells me Johnson/Babe, recency bias tells me Unit/Bonds. I’d at least be able to put the latter in some kind of context

9:54	Jeff Sullivan: But I want the former in HD, and I want it to go 15 pitches

9:55

Comment From Juicy-Bones Phil
I know long term deals rarely work out. I am also well versed in the aging curve argument. It seems to me like every move a front office makes that isn’t the Beane-esque platoon player trade or mid-range starter signing is bashed by yourself and Dave Cameron. Is there ever going to be a point where we understand that a bunch of money and years are going to be given to ageing free agents and move towards critiquing the player that money/years goes to instead of what a bad deal it was? For example, the Rangers aquiring of Prince Fielder and Shin-Soo Choo has been wholeheartedly bashed by you guys, but they seem to be the type of players that analytically minded guys like yourself and Dave Cameron promote, they now are being paid for it. Why criticize the deal when the deal when to the players that deserve it?

9:56	Jeff Sullivan: I don’t think Prince Fielder is a FanGraphs kind of player

9:57

Jeff Sullivan: We’re down on super long-term contracts because super long-term contracts are almost always a bad idea. Smart teams seldom even get involved, except for particular cases. Look at what the Cardinals did this offseason. It’s almost perfect. Guys who get big contracts are good players, but good players are fleeting and there are almost always preferable alternatives requiring lesser commitments

9:58	Jeff Sullivan: On the other hand, I’m liking the long-term Tulowitzki extension

9:58	Comment From Marcus A. Who is Nick Franklin going to be traded for? He’s still going to get traded eventually, right?

9:58	Jeff Sullivan: Sense I’m getting is he’ll be traded for a starter pitcher who isn’t good enough to justify the exchange

9:58	Comment From GentleJ Over/under 101 games that Alex Rodriguez is suspended?

9:58	Jeff Sullivan: Under and I completely forgot that’s even happening

9:58	Comment From Nick Are the White Sox realistic playoff contenders in 2015?

9:58	Jeff Sullivan: No

9:59	Comment From John In your opinion, which player looks the most like Santa?

9:59	Jeff Sullivan: Johan Santa

9:59	Comment From Mission Jetty Most powerful team in baseball right now? still the yankees?

9:59	Jeff Sullivan: What does powerful mean?

9:59	Comment From Tom Your thoughts, if any, on Harry Pavlidis’ recently published pitch framing numbers?

9:59	Jeff Sullivan: Haven’t seen them yet

9:59	Comment From Andrew What’s your go-to offensive stat?

9:59	Jeff Sullivan: wRC+

9:59	Comment From Danny Salazar My 2013 was remarkably similar to Matt Harvey’s 2012. Big things from me next year?

9:59	Jeff Sullivan: Pretty damn big things

9:59	Comment From eatmoresalmon Does a Nick Franklin for Colby Rasmus deal make sense? I just can’t see Ackley in CF.