Jeff Sullivan FanGraphs Chat — 12/31/13

9:08	Jeff Sullivan: I KNOW

9:08	Jeff Sullivan: I know I know I know

9:09	Jeff Sullivan: So let’s just move on and talk baseball and pretend this never happened

9:09	Comment From big boy brandon geluso late brah ya heard?

9:09	Jeff Sullivan: At some point down the road we’ll all look back and this will be a delightful character trait

9:11	Jeff Sullivan: See this is why I always chat for like two hours

9:11	Jeff Sullivan: Anyway, getting into it

9:11	Comment From Guest What do the Indians do to improve their starting pitching?

9:12	Jeff Sullivan: Wait to see if Ubaldo falls back to them. Lean on internal options. Marcum could be a fun little buy-low who doesn’t suck over 150-170 innings

9:12	Jeff Sullivan: It helps to have a Danny Salazar

9:13	Comment From Satan What is your greatest fear

9:13	Jeff Sullivan: Mental degradation

9:13	Comment From Guest Thanks for all the fish, Jeff. How would you sum up your 2013 for someone who isn’t stalking you?

9:14	Jeff Sullivan: Less Mariners-y, more rock-climb-y

9:14	Comment From Jay Who is the Mets starting shortstop on Opending Day? If they have the lead in the 9th, who closes?

9:15	Jeff Sullivan: I’m actually going to go with Stephen Drew because I like the idea of that fit. And I’ll go with the uninteresting selection of Bobby Parnell as closer, at least most of the time

9:15	Comment From SMC Of the big three FA pitchers (Garza/Jimenez/Santana), who’s the most realistic fallback to Tanaka? Any predictions on who gets each of the 4?

9:16	Jeff Sullivan: The sense I’m getting is that Santana is the most realistic/preferable fallback but the gap between those three and Tanaka, on the market, is enormous

9:16	Jeff Sullivan: In that the teams that want Tanaka really don’t want to not get Tanaka

9:17	Jeff Sullivan: In my head I’m giving Tanaka to the Yankees. Absolutely no read on the others — those markets haven’t developed. There are teams with obvious rotation holes, but none of those three pitchers is a great bet

9:18	Jeff Sullivan: Fairly meaningful difference that Matt Garza wouldn’t cost a team a draft pick

9:18	Comment From DLowe So, how much longer does Kendrys have to wait? Where do you see him ending up, and how much do you see him playing? Why wouldn’t he fit in great as the DH in Texas, with Cruz gone (or split 1B / DH with Fielder, as each has their defensive shortcomings…)

9:21

Jeff Sullivan: I keep thinking that the Orioles will eventually just give him a couple years, but I do think the Rangers are a dark horse worth considering if he ends up within their limited price range. Morales would be an upgrade over Mitch Moreland, and he’s not going to cost very much outside of that pick, and the Rangers are in that position where another win or two could mean an awful lot

9:21	Jeff Sullivan: Morales is very much still capable of playing very often, provided he isn’t in the field too much

9:21	Comment From Harry Truman Did you see those recently discovered “before” photos of Mt. St. Helens by a photographer who died in the blast? Amazing.

9:21	Jeff Sullivan: Hell yeah

9:22	Comment From Cochise Where do you see Cruz and Morlaes signing?

9:22	Jeff Sullivan: Cruz to the Mariners, Morales to the O’s. Don’t know how the former will happen, but I think it’ll happen more than any other option

9:22	Comment From tylersnotes jeff sullivan chats are like volcanoes or jonathan papelbon pitches, you know they’ll happen eventually and when they do they’ll certainly be interesting, but you may die before you actually see it

9:22	Jeff Sullivan: I take a while to get into a groove 🙁

9:22	Jeff Sullivan: plus this time I’m weary from traveling!

9:23	Comment From Greg S. How do you think the Chris McGuiness signing will impact the Ike Davis Market? Will the Pirates still be involved?

9:23	Jeff Sullivan: Yeah, that’s not really changing anything

9:23	Jeff Sullivan: How many people out there know one thing about Chris McGuiness?

9:24	Comment From Guest If you could be drinking ANYTHING you wanted at midnight tonight, what may that be?

9:24	Jeff Sullivan: Isabelle Proximus

9:24	Comment From Suburbanite Better year this year, Nolan Arenado or Christian Yelich?

9:24	Jeff Sullivan: Arenado

9:24	Comment From Zelig Should baseball play in a football stadium in January to try to get 105,000 people to watch it

9:24	Jeff Sullivan: Yes

9:25	Jeff Sullivan: And it has to be two teams I don’t like

9:25	Jeff Sullivan: And the game counts

9:25	Comment From Guest What is your greatest beer?

9:25	Jeff Sullivan: On hand? Probably Speeway Stout or a 2008 Abyss

9:25	Jeff Sullivan: Oh wait no I still have two more Westvleteren 12 so that

9:26	Comment From SMC Your new year’s resolution?

9:26	Jeff Sullivan: Sustain my personal gains from last year

9:27	Comment From SMC What should Dave’s new year’s resolution be?

9:27	Jeff Sullivan: Visit Portland

9:27	Comment From Harry Truman Can the Royals really win 90 games with a rotation of Vargas, Guthrie, Duffy, and Ventura following Shields?

9:29	Jeff Sullivan: Can they? I mean, Duffy and Ventura have obvious big-time upside, so surely there’s the potential for a good rotation in there given luck

9:30	Jeff Sullivan: But more realistically they’re a team a few games over .500, kind of similar to last year. 90’s going to be a real reach

9:30	Comment From Compton For pitchers with large enough career workloads, why not use individual HR/FB rates instead of league average for xFIP calculation? Is league-average really better to regress to than the players’ career rates?

9:31	Jeff Sullivan: There’s a lot of noise in career rates, and HR/FB is so volatile that you usually end up having to regress very heavily to the mean even over what you might feel is a significant sample size

9:32	Jeff Sullivan: Of course the right answer would be to incorporate both league average and career rates but xFIP is more elegant for its relative simplicity and the overwhelming majority of the time pitchers are basically average at this

9:32	Comment From Guest Is there any reason for Padres

9:32	Jeff Sullivan:

9:32	Comment From Cochise Do you think the M’s upgrade their OF thru trade?

9:32	Jeff Sullivan: Nope

9:32	Comment From Compton Does SIERA have any value given that it is the most predictive of future ERA?

9:32	Jeff Sullivan: It probably has value but I’d say it’s also unnecessary

9:32	Comment From Harry Truman Best San Diego area family tourist attraction: Zoo, Safari Park, Sea World, Birch Aquarium, LEGOLAND, Tijuana?

9:33	Jeff Sullivan: Probably the zoo, depending on how you feel about zoos. Or, Balboa Park. San Diego is where I just was for eight or nine days

9:33	Comment From steve is it out of the question that tanaka gets something like 7/200? seems like the combination of open bidding/prime years could lead to an insane market

9:33	Jeff Sullivan: It isn’t completely out of the question that Tanaka gets $200 million, but I think there would be more than seven years

9:34	Comment From Seff Jullivan Over/under on Tanaka being a 4 win pitcher in 2014?

9:34	Jeff Sullivan: In my head I see him around 3.5 – 4

9:34	Comment From Tim Raines Would you bot Edgar in the hall

9:34	Jeff Sullivan: Edgar belongs in the Hall

9:34	Jeff Sullivan: This is pretty much my only Hall of Fame opinion

9:34	Comment From John J Your gut feel on who ends up with Tanaka ? Could we see a feeding frenzy that drives out an 8 year deal ?

9:34	Jeff Sullivan: I could see the Cubs with the high bid and the Yankees with the winning bid

9:35	Jeff Sullivan: An eight-year deal is absolutely possible. Probably more so than we think as a group

9:35	Comment From bloggers without boarders Over/under of games you will attend as credentialed media member in 2014:

9:35	Jeff Sullivan: There’s no reason for me to do that

9:35	Comment From Urooj Will we really have to wait until the Tanaka situation resolves itself before anything happens with Garza, Santana, Jimenez and Burnett? It feels like we’ve had two offseason, one pre-Tanaka and one post-Tanaka.

9:36

Jeff Sullivan: Those other markets will move forward as the Tanaka market develops, and as teams get an idea of whether or not they’re actually in it. There was talk like two weeks ago that Garza could sign within 48 hours and while that obviously didn’t happen, a big bid would be a big bid and those pitchers will sign if the opportunity is there.

9:36	Jeff Sullivan: This is irritating, though. At least there’s material of interest into the new year

9:36	Comment From Gregg Did the Tigers get better or worse this offseason?

9:37	Jeff Sullivan: Better in the big picture, worse in the 2014 picture

9:37	Jeff Sullivan: I liked their idea although I didn’t like the Fister trade

9:38	Comment From Derek Zumsteg Fan Club Kendrys Morales is going to regret not taking the qualifying offer, right?

9:38	Jeff Sullivan: Not if he really hates Seattle

9:38	Comment From Tom Which current players belong in the HOF?

9:39	Jeff Sullivan: Halladay, maybe Sabathia, A-Rod, Pujols, Jeter, Thome if he counts, probably Beltre

9:39	Jeff Sullivan: Bogaerts

9:40	Comment From SMC Is there not more risk in Tanaka than there is in, say, Garza? Tanaka is still somewhat of an unknown, so couldn’t a team rationally say it makes more sense to spend less money on Garza and know (at least a little more) what you’re getting?

9:41

Jeff Sullivan: Absolutely, a team could justifiably determine that Tanaka is too much of a question mark coming from a different league. But this is why there are professional scouts — the scouts are the ones teams will be leaning on to determine whether or not Tanaka can succeed over here. If the pitches are there, the pitches are there, and it doesn’t matter where you’re throwing them

9:41	Jeff Sullivan: Last I heard there are teams concerned about Garza because of the crap in his elbow

9:41	Jeff Sullivan: But I understand you just used him as an example

9:42	Comment From Evergreen guy Do you think the Yanks are spending money assuming that Arod will stay suspended, or they stopped caring about tax?

9:42	Jeff Sullivan: I think they’ve just lightened up about the tax. It’s weird, obviously, and it cost them Russell Martin and other players/wins, but I suppose teams are allowed to change their minds

9:42	Comment From Evergreen guy With the Cubs and Mets payrolls being so low, what could a spending spree look like when these teams start spending?

9:42	Jeff Sullivan: Watch the Cubs on Tanaka. That could be a little attempted spending spree

9:43	Comment From Monroe Shouldn’t there be some performance standards for a player being allowed to pick his own theme song? Isn’t it kind of like picking your own nickname?

9:43	Jeff Sullivan: The performance standard is that the player made it to the major leagues

9:44	Comment From Evergreen guy How much do you love the story of Rakuten trying to get money out of Tanaka? You know, since they got screwed in this whole deal!

9:44	Jeff Sullivan: Could hardly blame them. Good luck if they’re going for it. I don’t really care what they do, myself, and it would make life more interesting during the work hours

9:46	Comment From Guest What do you believe is Nick Franklin’s value?

9:46	Jeff Sullivan: Weird question to try to answer but I think he’s a legitimate big-leaguer who’s affordable for six years

9:47	Jeff Sullivan: Fringe second baseman, obvious blemishes, but he can walk and hit for some power and he doesn’t cost anything. He’s probably worth a pretty good regular under control another few years, in a trade

9:47	Jeff Sullivan: He probably could be the centerpiece of a trade for a good starting pitcher, provided he’s involved in a package with other talent of intrigue

9:47	Comment From Internets only Padres fan What major improvement or change would you make to Petco Park?

9:48	Jeff Sullivan: In my dream world, it would have an atmosphere

9:48	Jeff Sullivan: In my dream world, it wouldn’t get so cold in the right-center bleachers come sundown

9:48	Jeff Sullivan: In my dream world, it would be easier to get to although I’ll give San Diego credit for the half-decent trolley access

9:49	Jeff Sullivan: I like Petco a lot. Kind of biased in its favor, having lived there a while. Glad they moved in the fences. I just want the team to be good.

9:49	Comment From Kris Would you vote for Barry Bonds to be in the HOF if you had a vote? If so, would he fall behind Biggio, Glavine, and Mussina (9th overall) as he does on Dave’s?

9:50	Jeff Sullivan: I don’t think about the Hall of Fame very much, but I would vote for Bonds, and I wouldn’t question it. I would not want to be a voting member of a body that doesn’t recognize Barry Bonds as one of the greatest baseball players ever

9:51	Comment From Internets only Padres fan How excited should the other three Padres fans be over Josh Johnson?

9:51	Jeff Sullivan: Not quite Chargers-excited, but fairly excited. 7 excited

9:51	Comment From Cochise Roughly how many games do you attend a seas?

9:51	Jeff Sullivan: Very few, but mostly because I’m closest to the Mariners and the Mariners have been miserable to watch in person. If they do better, I’ll go to plenty more

9:52	Comment From Marcus A. Best division in baseball this coming year? Worst?

9:53	Jeff Sullivan: I’ll say…AL West best, NL East worst, but maybe NL Central worst. but probably not

9:54	Comment From Kris So, the Yankees pres calls ARod ‘Chip’ and suggests that Cano needs steroids ‘fast’…

9:54	Jeff Sullivan: maybe he had an autoimmune disease

9:55	Comment From albert lea Given each team’s respective needs, what about a trade of six years of switch-hitting Seattle infielder Nick Franklin for six years of switch-hitting Minnesota outfielder Aaron Hicks? Oliver projects a five-year WAR of 14.7 for Franklin and 14.8 for Hicks.

9:56	Jeff Sullivan: Franklin has more value right now, I think, but you could have the core of something right here

9:57	Comment From Guest Where does Nick Franklin play next year?

9:58	Jeff Sullivan: Somewhere outside of Washington state. I’ve heard about a few somewhat surprising suitors. Not many teams out there who wouldn’t take a chance on him if the Mariners are willing to sell him low

9:58	Comment From Monroe Will the Astros go to the playoffs before the Mariners?

9:58	Jeff Sullivan: no

9:58	Jeff Sullivan: welllllll

9:58	Jeff Sullivan: no, still

9:58	Comment From Mark For how much and how many years do you think Stephen Drew will sign for?

9:58	Jeff Sullivan: 2/22?

9:59	Comment From Jay Why are people so high on the Nats again? 18th in projected WAR on the Depth Charts and behind ATL.

9:59	Jeff Sullivan: Big-time visible talent, winnable division, carryover hype from a year ago

9:59	Comment From Foghorn Dogbrawler What is the most Portland thing you saw this year