Jeff Sullivan FanGraphs Chat — 1/27/15

January 27, 2015

9:06	Jeff Sullivan: Hey guys

9:06	Jeff Sullivan: Having some operational issues but this should be resolved any moment

9:07	Jeff Sullivan: There we go. That was weird

9:07

Comment From Amoeba
ASTROS_ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ 2014 GB/FB ratio
Evan Gattis_ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ 0.87
Colby Rasmus_ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ 0.81
George Springer_ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ 1.15
Jon Singleton_ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ 0.85
Jose Altuve_ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ 1.60
Jed Lowrie_ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ 0.71
Luis Valbuena_ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ 0.66
Jason Castro or Hank Conger_ _ _ _ _ 1.26 (0.79)
Chris Carter_ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ 0.53
AVG_ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ 0.94 (0.89)MARLINS_ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ 2014 GB/FB ratio
Christian Yelich_ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ 3.42
Marcell Ozuna_ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ 1.44
Giancarlo Stanton_ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ 1.06
Michael Morse_ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ 1.37
Dee Gordon_ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ 3.13
Adeiny Hechavarria_ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ 2.26
Martin Prado_ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ 1.65
Jarrod Saltalamacchia_ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ 0.93
AVG_ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ 1.91

Is it fair to say that Astros and Marlins have opposite team construction philosophies?

9:07	Jeff Sullivan: Well that’s a hell of a way to start

9:07	Jeff Sullivan: Let me try to parse whatever this is trying to say

9:09

Jeff Sullivan: This year’s Astros are in large part all about putting the ball in the air and swatting a bunch of dingers. That’s not a mystery. And the Marlins have guys who would fit there, in Morse, and Stanton, and Ozuna, and…in some way, Yelich is sort of Miami’s Altuve. I think there are clear differences between the two lineups, but you don’t want to overstate them

9:09	Comment From Kirk If all players played in a vacuum, who do you think would survive the longest?

9:09	Jeff Sullivan: Curt Schilling seems to be filled to the brim with oxygen

9:10	Comment From George is Curious Your current best bet as to where James Shields eventually lands?

9:10	Jeff Sullivan: I’m just going to stick with Toronto. I know about the limitations, but I also know situations can change, especially when you can try to unload Dioner Navarro

9:10	Comment From Tony G. Best platoon combo in 2015: Rios/Dyson, Smith/Ruggliano, De Aza/Young or Cron/Joyce?

9:11	Jeff Sullivan: I’ll…say…Rios/Dyson?

9:11	Comment From klof Teams should be allowed to have seven simultaneous left fielders. Or seven 2Bs. Make offenses defeat the shifts!

9:11	Jeff Sullivan: Ultimately that’s the way things are going to play out

9:11	Jeff Sullivan: Shifts aren’t the problem, and I don’t think Manfred even thinks shifts are the problem. It was just an easy thing to write about

9:12	Comment From EC Do Nats keep the Super Rotation (TM)?

9:12	Jeff Sullivan: Strongly leaning yes at this point

9:12	Jeff Sullivan: They’ll have to be blown away, and no one’s done it yet even though it’s been obvious they’ve long had pitchers available

9:12	Comment From Getting Miggy With It What do you expect from Miguel Cabrera this year? Better or worse numbers than last season?

9:13	Jeff Sullivan: Better numbers when he’s healthy, but at some point he’ll probably end up playing through pain again. That’s not going to stop being an issue for him as he gets older and less flexible

9:13	Comment From STiVo What is your favorite type of rock?

9:13	Jeff Sullivan: igneous

9:13	Comment From EC Strasburg for Kris Bryant. Who says no?

9:14	Jeff Sullivan: Cubs would

9:14	Comment From Roger Dodger I feel like in the past year or so, there was no prospect discussed more on Fangraphs (especially during chats) than Mookie Betts. If you agree, why do you think that is the case?

9:14	Jeff Sullivan: It’s been the year of Mookie Betts, but right before that it was at least like the six months of Gregory Polanco

9:15

Jeff Sullivan: Betts is an unusual prospect, he’s been a very fast riser, he plays for an extremely popular team, and — maybe most importantly — he doesn’t have a totally clear route to a regular job in Boston, so you also get to think about him as a trade candidate. Not the case with most prospects

9:15	Jeff Sullivan: Now clearly, Boston has found a way to use Betts and as is he’ll bat 500-600 times with the Red Sox next year. But they have enough depth where they could stand to move him, and that makes him appealing to everybody, and not just Boston fans

9:16	Comment From Amoeba Hey Jeff

9:16	Jeff Sullivan: hey

9:16	Comment From Tommy Spring Training doesn’t mean much, but what should we look for out of Sano and Buxton coming off of major injuries?

9:18	Jeff Sullivan: Buxton, you just want to see moving around without limitations. You want to see if he can pull the ball with authority. Sano should be okay. If he’s playing in games, the Twins are no longer worried about his elbow getting reinjured

9:19	Comment From Guest How can one support the end of defensive shifts in the name of increasing offense, but not use robots for strike zones?

9:19	Jeff Sullivan: One of those doesn’t upset a whole union

9:19	Jeff Sullivan: Also, who’s to say the robots would call a hitter-friendly strike zone?

9:19	Comment From GSon Wow.. Sullivan comes sauntering in 5 to 10 minutes late.. is he trying to be Dave Cameron?

9:19	Jeff Sullivan: The hell with that, I was late first. Ask anyone

9:20	Comment From Jon Williams Ever experienced a blizzard?

9:20	Jeff Sullivan: A few times. I’m kind of jealous

9:21	Comment From RK I’m thinking Jackie Bradley (blocked as blocked can be) to the Indians (need D upgrade – Moss to DH some) would be a good fit. What would be a fair return to the Red Sox?

9:22	Jeff Sullivan: T.J. House would probably be fitting

9:22	Comment From Jays Fan II Overall thoughts on the whole Duquette debacle? Do you think the O’s should have set him free? Do you think the Jays violated any tampering laws?

9:23

Jeff Sullivan: I doubt the Jays legally tampered. I’ll tell you right now, I haven’t been following this story as closely as others because I was happy to just wait for a resolution, and I’m more interested in actual roster stuff. But I think we’ve ended up in a position where both Duquette and the Jays are disappointed, and it wouldn’t be a shock to see Duquette leave Baltimore in the not-so-distant future

9:26	Jeff Sullivan: The Orioles were never going to get extremely high compensation. That hasn’t happened before. But they should’ve worked out a deal. They could’ve asked the Jays to eat some money, or they could’ve settled for a lesser-prospect swap. This end result is a hollow victory for Angelos

9:27

Comment From Carsons Johnny
Pardon the baseball neophyte question. I watch maybe 20 or 30 baseball games a year and follow fangraphs and a few other baseball media things pretty closely. I frequently see discussions on almost all elements of baseball and in depth analysis of pitch release points, pitcher height, and many other seemingly tiny issues.

9:27

Comment From Carsons Johnny
Yet at the same time I don’t think I ever once recall a comment/discussion or analysis of where a pitcher is standing on the rubber. Are they required to stand in the middle? If they are not required to stand in the middle aren’t the couple of inches of offset available a pretty significant component of analysis that is ignored? Or is it talked about occasionally and I just don’t follow closely enough to notice it?

9:27

Jeff Sullivan: No, it does get talked about. Pitchers are by no means required to stand in the middle. Some guys prefer the first-base side, some guys prefer the third-base side, and some guys even switch in between depending on the hitter. It’s a matter of finding the right angle and the right level of comfort with the angle. Sometimes a pitcher feels like he’s better able to, say, pitch inside from one side of the rubber than the other

9:28	Jeff Sullivan: A few years ago, when Fernando Rodney got good, I think it was RJ Anderson who suggested it might’ve had something to do with a changed position on the rubber. The Red Sox changed a bunch of guys’ positions on the rubber as well. It’s something you can track on Brooks Baseball

9:29	Comment From C Crawford Any thoughts on RP Ben Rowen, the submariner Dodgers just signed to a minor league contract? FB tops out at 82mph.

9:30	Jeff Sullivan: His sinker has a PITCHf/x vertical movement of almost -9 inches

9:30	Jeff Sullivan: Brad Ziegler, for comparison: about -6 inches

9:31	Jeff Sullivan: Rowen’s sinker has a lot of the same PITCHf/x characteristics as Jarred Cosart’s curveball, to give you some perspective

9:32	Jeff Sullivan: He also throws strikes and obviously gets grounders. Maybe I’ll even write about him after this chat. He’s fascinating. There’s a reason he’s signed a minor-league contract, but these are the guys you want to see succeed

9:32	Comment From Andy Wow the chat is actually scrolling down instead of up. You have tamed the CIL beast!

9:32	Jeff Sullivan: Thank Eno for the tip!

9:32	Jeff Sullivan: Let me re-phrase that sentence

9:32	Jeff Sullivan: Thank Eno for the advice!

9:33	Comment From Willy Mo Pena Thoughts on Joe Kelly? Promising young starter or better served in the pen?

9:33	Jeff Sullivan: He can do the Justin Masterson thing. So it’s up to how you feel about the Justin Masterson thing

9:34	Comment From Jon Williams I am a fan of defensive shifting, but I think a rule mandating that there be two players on either side of the infield is a nice compromise if you’re trying to increase offense. Your thoughts?

9:34	Jeff Sullivan: Against it. Not sufficiently important. It’s all about the strike zone. It has to be all about the strike zone

9:34	Comment From STiVo According to ZiPS, the Red Sox have a very talented team. They also have lots of serviceable depth. Even starting pitching looks surprisingly decent, given Rick Porcello’s 3.5-WAR projection. What are your thoughts on the Red Sox 2015 season?

9:35	Jeff Sullivan: Right now they’re the team to beat in the AL, to me. Doesn’t mean they won’t be passed, and doesn’t mean they’re immune to disaster, but not only are they crazy strong — they obviously have the resources to address any deficiencies in June or July

9:35	Comment From Ralph Wiggum Hector Olivera makes the most sense on the A’s, no? I can’t see the Giants/Pads really going after him. Jays maybe.

9:35	Jeff Sullivan: I could totally see the Padres going hard. I had Olivera ticketed for the A’s before the Zobrist move. Still very possible given Zobrist’s versatility and short-term commitment

9:36

Comment From Doubter
What are the chances Drew Smyly is the Rays’ best starter in 2015? He’s not exciting, with a FB averaging around 90, and his ERA way outpaced his inidcators, but the peripherals are good. K-BB% is solid. He might not have the same stuff, but if he throws 200 innings, he can be as good or better than Cobb and Odorizzi, no?

9:36	Jeff Sullivan: I doubt he’s better than Cobb, this year or any year, but I do like him as a starter, and I like the adjustments the Rays had him make

9:37

Comment From _David_
While JA Happ’s upward trending fastball is interesting, I don’t think it has yet correlated with improvement and it seems likely that it will level off or decline anyway without reaching some magic number at which it would make him better…Is there any actual hope that he is a different pitcher?

9:38	Jeff Sullivan: Well, he’s a different pitcher because he throws a lot harder than he ever has

9:38	Jeff Sullivan: That means more fastballs, and that means more strikes, and that means fewer walks

9:39	Jeff Sullivan: He’s still basically JA Happ at the end of the day, but apparently lots of teams in baseball had interest in him this offseason and word is the competition likes what the Mariners have in him

9:39	Comment From Guest Do you ever read Tom Tango’s blog and initial think, “wut” and have no idea what he’s talking about.. Or do you generally understand most things he says?

9:39	Jeff Sullivan: 50% of the time, I get it. 40% of the time, it takes me a little while. 10% of the time, I feel like an idiot and have to close the browser and leave the room

9:40	Comment From Mike Ignoring the merits of the idea. If you were put in charge of banning the shift, how would you do it? Would you draw boxes on the field for every player, like the catcher’s box? What would be the punishment for a team who ignoring the rules and shifts anyway?

9:41	Jeff Sullivan: I’d probably just leave it up to the HP umpire’s judgment and regulate how many players can be on either side of the line extending from home plate to dead center. The penalty, presumably, would be a ball

9:41	Comment From Pure I challenge you to go one week without writing an article about projections or that mentions projections.

9:41	Jeff Sullivan: I have to write more than anyone else, and it’s January. That idea is stupid.

9:42	Comment From Mike, of Mike and the Mechanics Fame What do you expect Brad Miller to do on the baseball field this year?

9:42	Jeff Sullivan: Succeed more than last year

9:42	Jeff Sullivan: Overall average hitter, will probably continue to struggle against lefties

9:42	Comment From Austin Fangraphs has the Cubs winning 84 games. What is the margin of error on that prediction and which direction are you hedging?

9:43	Jeff Sullivan: I don’t know the margin of error. +/- 7 or 8 wins? I’d hedge down — there’s not a bad team in the division, to me

9:43	Comment From Josh I Gut feelings on where Hector Olivera ends up and how good he is? I’m calling A’s, and I think he’s .270/.340 with 10-15 homers. Your thoughts?

9:44	Jeff Sullivan: I feel like he’s basically impossible to project, statistically, given how little he’s played. You have to make some assumptions based on other guys who’ve come from Cuba. He’d swing more than average. Limited walks. Double-digit-dinger power. .340 OBP is probably high

9:44

Comment From L. Scott
How do you think Hellickson and Rubby de la Rosa fare in Arizona this year? Odds of them landing Shields? Also, do you like what the D-Backs have done to shake things up? Yasmany Tomas, as you said in November, can be a stud if things go well. I like the new look D-backs as a surprise team in 2015.

9:45	Jeff Sullivan: The Diamondbacks seem to be out on Shields and I think they are going to be a pretty bad team. Might even finish in the NL West basement. Tomas strikes me as very similar to Mark Trumbo. Trumbo has been a useful player, but he hasn’t been a game-changer, so to speak

9:45	Comment From Igneous Rock Enthusiast Do you have a personal interest in the winner of this year’s Super Bowl?

9:45	Jeff Sullivan: Yes

9:46	Comment From Guest If everyone is looking for a rule change to increase offense, why not change the regulations on bat size/weight?

9:46	Jeff Sullivan: Easier things to do, like changing the zone or changing the ball

9:46	Jeff Sullivan: Or — and I know this is crazy — they could just leave things be. Do we actually even need more offense?

9:46	Jeff Sullivan: (I haven’t read Dave’s article yet.)

9:47	Comment From Kirby C Zobrist’s more valuable at 2B than LF, right? Could the A’s go after a Boston outfielder instead – say, Victorino or Craig?

9:47	Jeff Sullivan: Sure, they could, although probably they will not

9:47	Comment From Jon Williams Does Tanner Roark replace Clippard in the bullpen?

9:47	Jeff Sullivan: I don’t think they’re going to have him fill that role — they’re going to want to keep him somewhat stretched out so he doesn’t forget how to start.

9:47	Comment From _David_ Please tell me Endy Chavez won’t actually play for the Mariners.

9:47	Jeff Sullivan: Probably will at some point. He always comes back

9:48	Comment From Tucker Braves win how many games combined in 15-16? 17-18?

9:48	Jeff Sullivan: 145, 155

9:50	Comment From greg I saw a potential Todd Frazier extension comp’d to Kyle Seager’s 7/100. Think that’s a reasonable expectation?

9:50	Jeff Sullivan: Decent comp, but Seager seems a bit better, and is almost two full years younger. So Frazier might want to set his sights a little lower than that

9:51

Comment From Catoblepas
Have you read about Mike Napoli’s offseason sleep apnea surgery? In brief, it was crazy, and apparently he hadn’t slept soundly for something like 8 years, and was often pulled in late innings due to dizziness and exhaustion. Is this just “best shape of his life” in a different form, or would you be comfortable bumping his projection up somewhat?

9:51	Jeff Sullivan: I couldn’t believe it when I read about his operation. I mean, I know it’s probably somewhat “common” and I just have a weak stomach for this stuff, but, jesus, the details are insane.

9:52	Jeff Sullivan: Nevertheless, he has been such a good hitter before that it’s hard for me to see that much upside, even despite his presumably improved rest. He’s still a slugger in his mid-30s. I can see greater playing time, but I don’t see much better than a 125 wRC+ overall

9:52	Comment From Mark Will you be publishing 2015 xBABIP data anytime soon?

9:52	Jeff Sullivan: Me, personally? I don’t do that

9:53	Comment From Tucker If you are the Nats, which pitcher are you looking to deal and what prospect/team do you call on first?

9:53	Jeff Sullivan: I and they would most prefer to move Zimmermann, but he’s been on the market all offseason an no one’s offered enough, by their standards.

9:53	Comment From Matt Kemp Sucks Am I right? Or am I right?

9:53	Jeff Sullivan: No he doesn’t

9:54	Comment From Kirby C Worst contract this offseason – Scherzer, V-Mart, or other?

9:54	Jeff Sullivan: Sure feels to me like it’s Nick Markakis

9:54	Jeff Sullivan: weird terms even if the Braves weren’t projected to be awful

9:55	Comment From Igneous Rock Enthusiast If a MLB team had Trout, Stanton, and McCutchen starting in the outfield this year, do you think they’d be nearly as good as the Twins, even with approximately replacement-level players everywhere else?

9:55	Jeff Sullivan: So you’re looking at something like 20 WAR combined

9:56	Jeff Sullivan: Probably still several games short of the Twins, but I’d probably take that team over the Phillies

9:56	Comment From Richard Does Marcus Stroman break out this year? Did the 2-seamer/sinker really make that big of a difference in the 2nd half?

9:56	Jeff Sullivan: In a sense he kind of already broke out last year. He was really good, and he should be really good

9:56	Comment From Art Vandelay If the Dodgers want Moncada, they still have the limitless budget to get him, yes?

9:57	Jeff Sullivan: They can dig deep, but the problem is the Red Sox and Yankees could do the exact same thing. Moncada won’t come close to eating up all the money a given team has available, so someone at some point is going to have to draw a line

9:57	Comment From Tucker Thoughts on the Braves offseason? Flashback to end of the regular season, what direction would you have taken it?

9:57	Jeff Sullivan: I’m fine with reloading, and I haven’t hated what they’ve done, but I will continue to harp on the Markakis deal for months if not years because that was bizarre

9:57	Comment From Luke Does Alcantra get 550+ plate appearances for the Cubs this year?

9:57	Jeff Sullivan: No

9:58	Comment From L. Scott Why can’t the yankees just release Rodriguez, eat the money, and start Garrett Jones/Chris Young at DH? Is this even possible? I would think losing the embarrassing headache would be worth the extra roster spot regardless of the money wasted.

9:59	Jeff Sullivan: I think releasing him is a real possibility, but they’re going to want to see what he has in him first. If he can actually contribute something this year, then ultimately that’s useful to them, and they’re pretty damn left-handed overall so he even has a role if he doesn’t suck

9:59	Comment From Rated Rookie I thought obsidian would be your favorite rock.

9:59	Jeff Sullivan: obsidian is igneous

9:59	Jeff Sullivan: and it’s beauuuuutiful

9:59	Comment From Peter For how many years will the Reds suck?

9:59	Jeff Sullivan: I don’t think the Reds suck

9:59	Jeff Sullivan: but the position they’re in sucks. I doubt they make the playoffs for the next few seasons