Jeff Sullivan FanGraphs Chat — 1/28/14

January 28, 2014

9:04	Jeff Sullivan: Hey guys. I’m in poor health, and my internet’s in poor health, but we’re going to do the best that we can today.

9:04	Jeff Sullivan: /war cry

9:05	Comment From Stephen “Waiting for write to provide content”

9:05	Jeff Sullivan: And you can just keep on waiting

9:05	Comment From Oren Should the Jays have just folded?

9:05	Jeff Sullivan: They should probably just fold second base, but the rest of them is all right

9:05	Comment From – Walt Am I turning the Reds into a non-contender?

9:06	Jeff Sullivan: You’re not actively doing anything. Semantics! But the Reds are down on the fringes in the NL, to me. And it’s not an easy team to upgrade. As demonstrated yesterday, their SP depth is pretty woeful, and that’s not the biggest concern.

9:06	Jeff Sullivan: Get a damned outfielder

9:07	Comment From – big fat old guy Should we give up on Justin Upton ever becoming a top 5 outfielder?

9:08	Jeff Sullivan: You shouldn’t give up on it, because it’s not like hoping costs you many vital resources, but it isn’t something you should expect. Still, go nuts with your daydreaming. What’s the harm?

9:08	Comment From TM Which of Santana, Jimenez, and Garza would you like to have pitching on your team for next year only, regardless of price?

9:08	Jeff Sullivan: Jimenez, then Garza, then Santana. Santana troubles me. Jimenez is coming off an incredible statistical season

9:08	Comment From A Busy Man I haven’t done a live chat with you in nearly a year. Am I a terrible person?

9:09	Jeff Sullivan: That more importantly depends on what else you’ve been doing

9:09	Comment From Kris I’m sure this is somewhere and you’ve answered it many times, but theoretically, how many wins would a team with 0 WAR have in 162 games??

9:09	Jeff Sullivan: 47-48

9:10	Jeff Sullivan: Think of it this way. There are, each season, 2430 wins in MLB, and there’s 1000 WAR. So you’re left with 1430 other wins, split up among 30 teams

9:12	Comment From _David _ Who is the Richard Sherman of baseball?

9:12	Jeff Sullivan: Ruben Amaro went to Stanford

9:12	Jeff Sullivan: I don’t think there is an equivalent. People expected some similarities of Bryce Harper, but it turns out he’s just a guy with skills

9:13	Comment From Ackley and Franklin What is the likelihood that we are both Seattle Mariners in April?

9:14

Jeff Sullivan: Low, because Nick Franklin is increasingly likely to end up a Tacoma Rainier. But to actually answer your question, it’s still reasonably low but going up with every day that Franklin doesn’t get dealt. I wouldn’t be surprised to see him moved for a starting pitcher, but we’re running out of time

9:15	Comment From Brad Feel better. Do you think Julio Teheran and Homer bailey can make the next jump to being an ace.

9:17	Jeff Sullivan: One could argue Bailey’s already there. Depends how strict you want to be. I’d like Teheran to find some more consistency against lefties before I start throwing around lofty labels

9:17	Comment From gig harbor Any chance that the Seattle Mariners can convert Nick Franklin into an outfielder?

9:17	Jeff Sullivan: Probably not real quickly but I have to imagine that’s a conversation the organization has had with itself

9:18	Comment From David The major FA pitchers and trade candidates were waiting on Tanaka, do you think there’s a similar event that the FA hitters are waiting for that will spark the market?

9:20	Jeff Sullivan: No, that’s just a battle of wills. And it’s not like there’s much left. It’s Drew, Cruz, and Morales. They’re all holding out for bigger markets that don’t exist.

9:20	Jeff Sullivan: Maybe Cruz and Morales will be linked since they have such tiny pools of suitors, but Drew isn’t waiting on anything in particular

9:21	Comment From j6takish Who is playing 3rd base for the Tigers on August 1st?

9:21	Jeff Sullivan: Castellanos! I’m boring!

9:21	Comment From _David _ So is this the year that gets Jack Z fired?

9:21	Jeff Sullivan: Maybe if they give up way too much for David Price. Otherwise I’m not seeing it

9:21	Comment From 3s and Puppies I feel like this is a good time to gloat about not having class today due to cold weather – it’s -13 in Ann Arbor right now! Have fun at work, SUCKERS

9:22	Jeff Sullivan: Personally this is my work!

9:22	Comment From Guest Keith Law said the Mets have the 6th best farm system. Now I tend not to listen to anything he says, but did this just make him totally uncredible to everyone else?

9:22	Jeff Sullivan: You are coming from a position of certain bias, seems like.

9:23	Jeff Sullivan: Think of it less in terms of the ranking, and more in terms of the meaning. He thinks the Mets have a strong, top-third farm system. He’s super qualified to be making these declarations. Other people are going to disagree with him but all input from quality observers has value.

9:24	Jeff Sullivan: Wisdom of crowds, etc etc etc

9:24	Comment From guest Loved the column today – and I do think I am a bit more balanced in how I look at things – mix of strengths and weaknesses. So at the end of the seasons the best outfield in the majors will be

9:24	Jeff Sullivan: Mike Trout, followed by Pirates

9:25	Comment From guest Take it you are not a big Ryan Ludwick fan?

9:25	Jeff Sullivan: I liked him in 2008

9:25	Comment From _David _ What year will be the Mariners next winning season?

9:25	Jeff Sullivan: Like just above .500? 2015

9:26	Comment From Kate What should the Rangers do if Rougned Odor continues to develop as expected and there’s another middle-infield question, what with Elvis, Profar, and Roogie?

9:26	Jeff Sullivan: First thing: Odor has 30 games above Single-A. It could be a while.

9:27	Jeff Sullivan: But then it sure seems like you bump someone to third after Beltre’s contract is up

9:27	Jeff Sullivan: Beltre’s contract will eventually be up 🙁

9:28	Comment From j6takish Which near contender is the hardest to upgrade? Has to be the Royals…right?

9:28	Jeff Sullivan: I was going to say the A’s, but they’re a legit contender, not a near contender .

9:29	Jeff Sullivan: So yeah, I think definitely Royals. I mean, on paper you could upgrade the starting rotation, but it’s not easy with all their limitations. They have a whole lot of adequacy and little in terms of impact talent

9:30	Comment From Guest Will BJ Upton ever be a top 30 outfielder again?

9:31	Jeff Sullivan: Last year, 30th-ranked OF posted 3.1 WAR. Year before, 3.1. Year before, 2.9. Upton was worth 10.7 between 2010-2012. I’d give him a…30% chance of making it back one more time

9:31	Comment From Gila Monster If Burnett doesn’t return, is Chris Capuano a perfect signing for the Pirates?

9:32	Jeff Sullivan: Sure seems like a good idea

9:33	Comment From gresham Would the Seattle offseason be a success if the Mariners could sign Bronson Arroyo, Chris Capuano and Oliver Perez? What would be reasonable contracts for each?

9:35	Jeff Sullivan: Well it wouldn’t be a failure. Not sure they need two veteran starters but I could understand it. Off the top of my head, in order, 2/$14, 2/$12, 1/$4

9:36	Comment From Northsider What is your favorite volcano-themed motion picture?

9:36	Jeff Sullivan: I think Dante’s Peak is the most watchable. There are not many good volcano-themed motion pictures.

9:37	Jeff Sullivan: The informational video at the Johnston Ridge Observatory.

9:38	Comment From chuckb What’s going to happen with Price? It makes too much sense for the D-backs to make a run at him for it not to happen, doesn’t it?

9:39	Jeff Sullivan: I think Arizona makes another run, Seattle makes another run, and ultimately Tampa Bay elects to take their chances and keep Price for 2014. But all it takes is Kevin Towers having one sleepness night and one desperate morning

9:39	Comment From Rated Rookie Is WAR a little like bitcoin?

9:39	Jeff Sullivan: To me, no, because I know what WAR is

9:39	Comment From Grack Zeinke I do feel like Nelson Cruz in Great American Ballpark is a match made in heaven. It would mean making room for him in the Reds OF. Think there is anything to that?

9:40	Jeff Sullivan: I doubt the Reds are interested in making that kind of splash. Not that I know what Cruz is going to cost at this point, but it seems like it’ll still be too high for Cincinnati’s comfort level.

9:41	Comment From Guest Will Trumbo hit 40 homers in 2014?

9:41	Jeff Sullivan: No!

9:41	Jeff Sullivan: but almost

9:41	Comment From Grack Zeinke Dark horse teams for Stephen Drew? A’s, Marlins or Twins?

9:41	Jeff Sullivan: I can’t stop coming back to the Blue Jays

9:42	Jeff Sullivan: The Marlins seem oddly smitten with their own shortstop

9:42	Comment From Sean I recently got a new job and haven’t attended one of your chats since probably early November. What did I miss?

9:42	Jeff Sullivan: Weekly late arrivals

9:42	Comment From Jake Most likely to hit the DL with chonic existential angst?

9:42	Jeff Sullivan: Joey Votto

9:43	Comment From Vinnie Catricala Surprising decision, huh?

9:43	Jeff Sullivan: When you’re not into it anymore, you’re not into it anymore. Can force it for only so long. Kudos to Vinnie on already having something else lined up.

9:43	Comment From Ryan Brain O/U on Santana – 4 years/40M? Assume the Royals don’t resign him.

9:43	Jeff Sullivan: more money

9:44	Comment From Guest how many wins for the Astros? they’ve put together a much better team and won’t have the worst bullpen in MLB history, but everyone else in the division improved significantly as well

9:44	Jeff Sullivan: I could see them right around 70!

9:44	Comment From Hey Did you know there was an NHL player named Jeff Sullivan? That’s your name! You like hockey!

9:45	Jeff Sullivan: There’s also a photographer in Portland named Jeff Sullivan who likes to take pictures of volcanoes, and there’s another Jeff Sullivan who climbs at my bouldering gym, which means every time I go I have to go through an extra confirmation step

9:46	Comment From Alec How was Jamie Moyer so effective? Maddux level command? Or did he have a dominant change up or something?

9:47	Jeff Sullivan: Perfectly-disguised changeup and the know-how of what to do with it. Spent a lot of time off the edges of the zone. Didn’t make fat mistakes. There are some parallels between Moyer and Tom Glavine

9:47	Comment From babaooey How are we supposed to evaluate players “presence in the clubhouse” The indians seem to be a stat-oriented team, yet they keep bringing Jason Giambi back, citing his positive influence. Is there a way to actually know if hes worth a rosetr spot?

9:48	Jeff Sullivan: Not from where we sit. Probably from where they sit. Worth keeping in mind that, with a bench player, it’s a lot easier to justify keeping a guy around for his character. Trickier if you’re putting a mediocre statistical player on the field every day

9:49	Comment From john what’s going on with Luebke? every projected padres roster has him not on the team. Did i miss something?

9:49	Jeff Sullivan: Far as I know, he’s available. I recall there was talk of their starting him out of the bullpen at the beginning to ease him in and build up his arm strength

9:50	Comment From Jake Beyond Drew, Cruz, and Young, what position FA is most likely to perform? Anyone left on the scrap heap worth grabbing?

9:50	Jeff Sullivan: The market’s terrible. Jeff Baker? The market’s terrible.

9:51	Comment From Ryan Brain Brewers still a lost cause, or have they jumped up to fringe contender with the Garza signing in 2014?

9:51	Jeff Sullivan: Super fringey. Upper-level talent is there but there’s not a lot of help behind them

9:52	Comment From VB Mike Trout suffers a freak accident and falls into a coma. He wakes up in January 1, 2018 a free agent. How much does he sign for?

9:52	Jeff Sullivan: zero dollars

9:52	Comment From Jake Be honest, did you ever play right field as a little leaguer?

9:52	Jeff Sullivan: I only played in high school and they stopped using me as a position player when they realized I couldn’t hit thrown baseballs

9:53	Comment From Dan Duquette I’m the GM of the Orioles. I will trade you every player on my 25-man roster minus Machado for every player on the Mariners 25-man roster minus Felix. Will you accept my offer?

9:53	Jeff Sullivan: Sure feels like something I should say no to

9:53

Comment From Dustin
Has anyone ever looked at temporary replacement values, or the actual production received when re-shuffling the bench and lineup to cover for a starters DL stint? Since bench players should be more than replacement level talent, I would suspect that teams are losing even less production than we expect when covering temporary gaps.

9:54	Jeff Sullivan: I think about looking into this probably every single week. Eventually I’ll do the damned research and publish something. Hard to muster up the strength when you’re expected to publish twice a day

9:55	Jeff Sullivan: But related to that, something I stumbled upon yesterday:

9:56	Jeff Sullivan: Justin Morneau was having an amazing 2010. Didn’t play after July 7. At that point, Twins were 45-39. Finished 49-29

9:56	Comment From _David _ For you, what makes a great/good/bad/terrible stadium?

9:56	Jeff Sullivan: Atmosphere. I’m less about things and more about experiences

9:57	Comment From Harry after your jimenez/santana article this morning I was looking at the Braves SP projections and noticed that Minor and Teheran are projected to pu tup 2.5 less wins in 2014 than in 2013. Shouldnt young guys like that be getting better each yearm not worse?