Jeff Sullivan FanGraphs Chat — 1/6/15

January 6, 2015

9:01	Jeff Sullivan: Hello friends

9:01	Jeff Sullivan: Welcome to live baseball chat

9:02	Jeff Sullivan: Today we hear about the Hall of Fame, which is something I’m told I’m supposed to have an interest in. You are free to ask Hall of Fame questions, but I can’t promise a passionate response

9:02	Comment From Eminor3rd You should do a weekly podcast even when Dave comes back.

9:02	Jeff Sullivan: All up to Carson but I’m open to it. Maybe biweekly. I feel anxious when we publish a podcast that doesnt’ talk about baseball at all because I feel like we’re letting people down?

9:03	Comment From George is Curious Hi Jeff. Happy New Year to you and yours! As of January 6, who do you see as the biggest name out there that will switch teams before the season starts?

9:04	Jeff Sullivan: If we’re counting Max Scherzer, I feel like he’s the right answer. If not, I feel like Ben Zobrist is the best player, and Jordan Zimmermann is the biggest name

9:04	Jeff Sullivan: Zimmermann, of course, is no lock to be traded, but I gotta play the probabilities

9:05	Comment From Vslyke We all know the Braves are going to be bad in 2015. Will they be good by 2017?

9:05	Jeff Sullivan: Good good? Probably not. But that many years off, I’d be uneasy predicting that any team wouldn’t be at least WC-caliber

9:05	Comment From Eminor3rd Do you like baseball anymore?

9:06	Jeff Sullivan: I like baseball in a very different way from how I used to. Doesn’t feel like a sport to me anymore; feels more like a scientific pursuit, or something. Hockey’s the sport where I still feel like an idiot fan

9:06	Comment From John Farrell Who do you predict will be the top 3 offensive players for the Red Sox in 2015?

9:07	Jeff Sullivan: Hanley Ramirez, David Ortiz, Dustin Pedroia. Including baserunning. But Rusney Castillo and Mookie Betts are close, to me, and then there’s Mike Napoli, and man this team is good

9:08	Comment From Snid Any update info on Prince Fielder?

9:09	Jeff Sullivan: He’s been swinging and he’s set to be healthy for spring training. He’ll be in position to play the full year, but there’s real concern the injury will have some long-lasting or permanent effects on his power

9:09	Comment From Eminor3rd Of all the teams with controversial projections, which do you FEEL will most likely prove their fans wrong?

9:10	Jeff Sullivan: I think the Rays are better than the collective fan estimates

9:11	Jeff Sullivan: I’m also higher on the Cubs than the community seems to be overall

9:11	Comment From bdhudson I wish we could all just admit that Barry Bonds was the best real-life video game we’ll ever see and put him in the hall. Nobody else is as amusing

9:12

Jeff Sullivan: If I had to have a Hall of Fame opinion, it would be that the Hall ought to reflect the way that baseball looked in every era. Barry Bonds was one of the most important and recognizable players of a generation. He’s a huge part of recent baseball history. Who could possibly deny that?

9:13	Comment From mtsw Phillies cover all of Howard’s salary and trade him to Orioles for Mike Yazstremski, a fringe prospect but famous name so allows RAJ to save some face. Who says no?

9:13	Jeff Sullivan: Not sure either side says no, but Amaro has indicated he doesn’t want to pay all the contract, so. Howard isn’t actually worth anything, so that deal is basically agreeable

9:14	Comment From CecilFieldersButtPlug the lack of new articles on here is driving me nuts at work

9:14	Jeff Sullivan: There are lots of new articles. Previously, it was two weeks of holidays, family, and traveling.

9:15	Comment From Texas Dolly Thoughts on Derek Holland?

9:16	Jeff Sullivan: Good. Better than he was. Real quality pitcher signed to a sweet deal

9:17	Jeff Sullivan: Holland would be a year from free agency. However, he’s controlled through 2018, with a pair of club options. $10m in 2016, $11m in 2017, $11.5m in 2018

9:18	Comment From AL Pitching Coach What do you expect from Kevin Gausman in 2015? Does he ever live up to his ace-like potential?

9:21

Jeff Sullivan: As a general rule I pretty much always bet against a player achieving his ace-like potential. I think as a starting pitcher, Gausman still has issues to work out against lefties in particular, and a big part of his game is trying to get guys to go fishing. If he takes a step forward with his split, he can look like a No. 2, but right now he’s a 3/4 until he proves otherwise. Big obvious upside, but upside is often left unreached

9:22	Comment From Matt Is the Mariners bench an overlooked weakness for them? Right now it looks like it’s going to be along the lines of Sucre/WFB/Ruggiano/Montero

9:22	Jeff Sullivan: Yeah, that’s not real good. They might still add someone better than Montero. But it’ll help to have one of Taylor or Miller available in Triple-A. If Taylor proves himself a big-league shortstop, then Miller can be around to plug a hole virtually anywhere

9:22	Comment From klof do you work from home? coffee shops? bars? is it awesome?

9:23	Jeff Sullivan: Home, almost exclusively. Don’t work well in coffee shops — too many distractions. It is preferable to working in an office, but it’s not quite the dream I thought it would be 15 years ago, in that I miss having, say, interpersonal communication

9:24	Jeff Sullivan: I’ve gone full days before without saying a single word out loud. Have you ever tried to chat with someone face-to-face and realized that you forgot how to talk? It’s a surprising feeling.

9:24	Comment From Bret Are the Jays going to be able to find a team who will give up something of value for Dioner Navarro? Seems like the options are dwindling.

9:25	Jeff Sullivan: As things stand, Dioner Navarro might get taken by someone, but not for anything of real note

9:25	Comment From Dave woah, the chat is upside down

9:25	Jeff Sullivan: I keep waiting for someone to tell me how to fix this. I thought I did but it remains an issue 🙁

9:25	Comment From Hall of Shame Who deserves to be inducted more, Pete Rose or Barry Bonds?

9:25	Jeff Sullivan: Barry Bonds

9:27	Comment From CecilFieldersButtPlug how much would you give Max Scherzer this offseason and for how long? Realistically an offer that he would actually sign for. I enjoyed reading an article citing maybe someone will go short term, high AAV

9:27	Jeff Sullivan: I’d be okay with, say, $160m/6, so from there you can tweak the numbers a little bit

9:27	Comment From Eminor3rd Dave Cameron’s least favorite player is Miguel Olivo. Who is yours?

9:27	Jeff Sullivan: Francisco Rodriguez

9:28	Comment From klof are the cubs wasting a year of lester (20% of their budget!) if they don’t make another move (like zobrist) to strengthen their OF and have options for their infield?

9:28	Jeff Sullivan: No, because they’re already pretty good. Also not sure they want to pay for one year of a quality player in Zobrist since they’re thinking longer-term.

9:29	Comment From Eminor3rd Randy Johnson put up a 3.5 fWAR season in 2006 despite a 5.00 ERA!

9:29	Jeff Sullivan: Randy Johnson’s page isn’t quite on the level of Barry Bonds’ page, in terms of statistical pornography, but I might have to use today as an excuse to dive deep. So much fun.

9:30	Jeff Sullivan: Randy Johnson, 2001: 37% strikeouts second place: 29%

9:31	Comment From CecilFieldersButtPlug % chance the sox sign Shields or Scherzer

9:31	Jeff Sullivan: Better chance for Shields than Scherzer. In Shields, it’s an opportunity to get, say, Hamels lite, for no prospects. But if Shields really has $110m/5yr in hand, and it’s not from Boston, I don’t think Boston beats that

9:32	Comment From _David_ Is there good reason to believe last year’s LoMo is more more real than the two years before?

9:32	Jeff Sullivan: No

9:32	Jeff Sullivan: Best reason, I guess, is that it was last year

9:32	Comment From Matt Shot in dark at the best player moved at the 2015 trade deadline?

9:32	Jeff Sullivan: Johnny Cueto

9:33	Jeff Sullivan: Alternate fun answer: Cole Hamels!

9:33	Comment From billy Would modern HOF voters have not allowed Willie Mays in, since he was once accused of distributing liquid amphetamines?

9:33	Jeff Sullivan: Seems they draw a distinction between temporary and more permanent artificial changes to the body

9:33	Comment From Christian if Yanks sign Moncada, top 10 system?

9:34	Jeff Sullivan: Better question for Kiley! Since I’m not Kiley, I’ll guess. Yes! Moncada is super.

9:34	Comment From Curtis Will Santana play any SS for the Twins in 2015?

9:34	Jeff Sullivan: This smells like a fantasy question. The answer, though, is yes

9:34	Comment From Derek Trammell= Jeter, Jeter will be first ballot while Trammell may not get in

9:35	Jeff Sullivan: ergo Trammel does not = Jeter. If I really cared about this I would probably never stop talking about this particular comparison

9:35	Jeff Sullivan: (for the record, because that seems unclear, I am in agreement with what you are saying)

9:36	Comment From Curtis If/When Bonds/Clemens/McGwire get in to the HOF, should they be required to wear a pre-suspicion hat? Bonds-Pirates, Clemens-Red Sox, Mac- As? or will it even matter…

9:36	Jeff Sullivan: Getting in is the hurdle. Once that’s cleared, there won’t be any restrictions. If Bonds is voted in because of everything he was, and because of how he’s remembered, he should wear the hat he’s most remembered for wearing

9:36	Comment From Curtis Am I wrong to be excited about the Mariners’ RF platoon?

9:36	Jeff Sullivan: You’re not wrong, you’re just unusual

9:37	Comment From Cubdom The excitement level is high, but what are reasonable expectations for 2015?

9:37	Jeff Sullivan: Meaningful baseball played into September

9:37	Comment From Gary Bettman Which NHL team does Jeff Sullivan root for?

9:37	Jeff Sullivan: http://wpmedia.o.canada.com…

9:37	Comment From Curtis Any Jesse Hahn love over there?

9:38	Jeff Sullivan: He’s super neat. Totally unknown, also, but he’s part of a massive group of somewhat quality starting candidates for Oakland. If there’s one thing they aren’t lacking, it’s rotation depth

9:38	Comment From C Crawford (L.A.) Do you know who the first person to write the phrase “because Baseball” to end a sentence was?

9:38	Jeff Sullivan: No. Do you?

9:38	Comment From hermanthehermit Are the Mariners done where they stand now, moves-wise, or are there other obvious pieces that could fall into place?

9:39	Jeff Sullivan: Only thing left might be finding someone to challenge Jesus Montero for righty 1B/DH. Maybe — maybe — they throw something Chris Young’s way, but it seems like they’re out of space

9:39	Comment From HappyFunBall If we just renamed it the “Hall of Fear and RBIs” wouldn’t that go a long way to placating everyone’s concerens?

9:39	Jeff Sullivan: Hall of Fear. I like it! Very American.

9:39	Comment From Lsad So perceptions and all…you have a much deeper voice than I imagined.

9:39	Jeff Sullivan: And Dave has a much higher voice than I used to imagine

9:39	Comment From slightlyawkward Personal prediction of the mets season?

9:40	Jeff Sullivan: Second place in the division. Just miss the playoffs, but, the fan morale will rise. Plenty there to like

9:41	Comment From Gila Monster Is Jim Thome a HoFer eventually? He seems like a borderline guy, but he is also worshiped by the media and is one of the few “big bats” that was never connected to PEDs.

9:42	Jeff Sullivan: Such an awesome peak. I think he eventually sneaks in should the logjam ever clear

9:43	Jeff Sullivan: He’ll get a lot of the Edgar Martinez support, and he also played more games, and more games in the field

9:43	Comment From ThePuck If you had a HOF ballot, who would be on it?

9:43	Jeff Sullivan: Ten players, and I’d want more

9:44	Comment From mtsw Which is more likely: Shields gets 7/150 or Shields gets 3/55?

9:44	Jeff Sullivan: I guess the first one but they’re both essentially impossible

9:45	Comment From Curtis Could Susac be the starting C in SF by 2017 or will he be elsewhere?

9:45	Jeff Sullivan: They don’t need to move him if they don’t want to. He’s still in line to start in SF eventually.

9:45	Comment From Guest When does Gabby Guerrero make his debut seems like weve heard about him for a while now?

9:45	Jeff Sullivan: He’s still just 21 and hasn’t played above High-A, and last year he was unremarkable in High Desert. He probably never sees the majors

9:46	Comment From Phillies113 Which team do you think is most likely to surprise a lot of people in 2015, either by being really bad when they’re supposed to be good or vice versa?

9:46	Jeff Sullivan: If the Yankees actually have rotation health, I think they’d be damn good, but that’s a heck of a caveat

9:47	Jeff Sullivan: I think people expect the A’s to be worse than they actually are

9:47	Jeff Sullivan: The Braves could be a real nightmare

9:47	Comment From John Red Sox Talking about the Red Sox, what do you think about the Sandoval’s sign?

9:48	Jeff Sullivan: Steep but fine. They have to worry about money less than almost anyone, there’s a lot of cheap young talent on the way, and I like that Sandoval’s just 28. Usually when we complain about FA signings, it’s because the guy is already in his 30s.

9:49	Comment From Warren Who is an example of someone who has better game power than raw power? Is this even possible?

9:49	Jeff Sullivan: Not sure that’s possible, but I picture a guy like Kyle Seager, who doesn’t have power power, but who does have the ability to hit identical home runs when he gets ahead of a pitch over the plate

9:49	Comment From THE Average Sports Fan You like Rasmus on a 1 year deal?

9:49	Jeff Sullivan: Yep

9:50	Comment From TKDC ESPN is crazy to say that Howard’s list of 9 AL teams is an effort to avoid being traded, right?

9:50	Jeff Sullivan: Howard probably wants to be traded. He wants an opportunity to play.

9:50

Comment From Stan Papi
I agree with your earlier comment that the Red Sox offense looks good, but I’m not sure about their pitching, especially the bullpen. Do you think the pitching is good enough to make them a top contender (i.e. possible division winner and real threat to advance in the playoffs)?

9:51	Jeff Sullivan: The pitching is good enough right now, given the position players, but they should want to upgrade, at least in terms of depth. I think another guy arrives, and I think he’ll be pretty good

9:51	Comment From Matt What happened to Yunel Escobar in 2014? He had never put up a negative UZR in his career, and somehow had a negative 17 UZR or -24 DRS in 2014. Did something happen or is it typically case of the issue with defensive metrics?

9:52

Jeff Sullivan: I was trying to figure this out a week or two ago. Came up over the course of the season in TB newspapers, and Joe Maddon suggested that all the tools and ability are still there, but maybe Escobar was having a little more trouble covering the hole up the middle. He was unusually mistake-prone. He’s better than his 2014 defensive numbers, almost for sure

9:53	Comment From Mildly Numb As Fan Chances of A’s overtaking the M’s and the Angels for the AL West? Chances of a mere Wild Card?

9:53	Jeff Sullivan: Divisional chances probably 10 – 15%. Wild card probably 10 – 20%.

9:53	Comment From JJ Hey Jeff – What are your short and long term thoughts on the Twins?

9:54	Jeff Sullivan: Long-term, there’s real excitement on the way, and I still love Buxton. Short-term, I try not to think about the Twins at all.

9:54	Comment From Ricky Heyman voted for Mattingly over Edgar.

9:54	Jeff Sullivan: One day we’ll all be dead

9:56	Comment From Curtis Do you know if there is ANY memorabilia in the HOF from the “steroid” guys?

9:56	Jeff Sullivan: http://articles.latimes.com…

9:56

Jeff Sullivan: “News that the ball that Bonds hit to break Hank Aaron’s all-time home run record would be sent to the Hall of Fame branded with an asterisk to denote his alleged use of steroids didn’t spoil the night for the crowd, which resumed chanting his name toward the end of a postgame tribute to him on the video scoreboard.”

9:57	Comment From klof what should we look for when david ortiz is done? higher K rate? less power? fewer walks? singles where doubles used to be? which would we see first?

9:58	Jeff Sullivan: Perhaps a greater fly-ball pull rate?

9:58	Jeff Sullivan: Sort of the Raul Ibanez approach

9:58	Jeff Sullivan: Selling out for the last bits of power

9:59	Comment From mtsw Any evidence that playing with teammates with bad plate discipline causes young players to demonstrate worse plate discipline? There’s a persistent idea among O’s fans that Jonathan Schoop’s discipline is negatively effected by being Adam Jones’s teammate.

9:59	Jeff Sullivan: I dont’ think a player’s discipline is ever affected by a teammate’s discipline. Plate appearances are basically independent. However, there could obviously be an effect if the coaching staff is pro-aggressiveness or pro-patience

9:59	Comment From JJ What kind of plan do the Yankees have for Eovaldi?

9:59	Jeff Sullivan: Start him