Jeff Sullivan FanGraphs Chat — 1/7/14

January 7, 2014

9:04	Jeff Sullivan: Let’s do this thing. Less late than last week!

9:04	Jeff Sullivan: This looks like it might be my last chat with CiL classic 🙁 I’m afraid of sweeping change

9:04	Jeff Sullivan: Or even minor, barely-noticeable change. To be honest I haven’t bothered to investigate

9:05	Comment From Swing and a Miss Puiggy ruh roh….what changes are in store w/ CiL?

9:05	Jeff Sullivan: I don’t know. The screencaps make it look like big ones. Could be little ones but I like the current model! The classic model! Keep CiL Classic!

9:05	Comment From Froglegs Jackson Do you know when ZIPS projections will start appearing on player pages?

9:06	Jeff Sullivan: I believe when all the team ZiPS projections are rolled out

9:06	Jeff Sullivan: That’s also when we’ll have ZiPS input for the projected team WAR and standings and everything

9:06	Comment From Gareth After making a comment last week about Fangraphs writers complaing about attending the winter meetings in Florida, I ended up booking a Disneyworld Trip. Thanks for the inspiration Jeff! Also – It’s the Ice Age in Ohio right now.

9:07	Jeff Sullivan: Be wary of frost quakes! http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cryoseism

9:07	Comment From Gareth Changes of any member of next years Free Agent class accepting the qualifying offer?

9:07	Jeff Sullivan: Honestly too early to say but let’s wait to find out what happens in the end with Cruz, Morales, Drew, etc

9:08	Jeff Sullivan: Don’t buy that the offer is much of a deterrent for the Mets, since the slot value of the pick they’d give up to sign him is less than $700k

9:09	Comment From FS What does an Ian Desmond extension look like?

9:11	Jeff Sullivan: Well, you figure he’ll get about $7 million this coming year, and then something like $10-11 million in his last year of arbitration

9:12	Jeff Sullivan: Then it becomes a matter of the length of the deal. If you go six years, I could see a dollar amount around $85-90 million

9:12	Jeff Sullivan: then add or subtract, say, $16-17 million for each additional or fewer season

9:13	Comment From Guest If Albert Belle had the reputation of being a boy scout, like Greg Maddux, would Belle have had a real chance at the HOF?

9:13	Jeff Sullivan: Nope. Awesome, awesome player, but wasn’t awesome for long enough.

9:14	Jeff Sullivan: Basically played a decade, didn’t hit any of the usual HoF benchmarks outside of his rate stats

9:14	Comment From Gareth Which player made the biggest mistake by not accepting the QO – Drew, Morales or Cruz?

9:15	Jeff Sullivan: Probably Morales, given that his market was automatically half the size of the others

9:15	Comment From Swing and a Miss Puiggy did you see this: http://hardballtalk.nbcsports.com/2014/01/07/greg-maddux-will-not-be-a-unanimous-hall-of-famer/ SAD FACE….

9:15	Jeff Sullivan: I don’t care about HoF voting, but if I did care about HoF voting, I’d be really super aggravated by that kind of unjustifiable behavior

9:15	Comment From Conrad Surprise CY candidate for each league next season? Someone who wasn’t top 10 this season….

9:16	Jeff Sullivan: Just realized Matt Moore tied for ninth. Crap

9:16	Jeff Sullivan: Give me a second here

9:19	Jeff Sullivan: Aw the hell with it. Corey Kluber and Tim Hudson

9:19	Jeff Sullivan: Kluber because of being awesome, Hudson because he’ll be fine in a park that suppresses run scoring more than any other

9:20	Comment From Gareth Is 3B the weakest position in MLB right now?

9:21	Jeff Sullivan: Let me just load my trusty leaderboards…

9:22	Jeff Sullivan: By an arbitrary cutoff, it’d be shortstop, where Steamer has just seven players projected for at least 3 WAR

9:23	Jeff Sullivan: But then that doesn’t include guys like Bogaerts, Peralta, Lowrie, Cabrera, Hardy…

9:23	Jeff Sullivan: Third base is in pretty good position though, especially with the coming switch by Matt Carpenter

9:24	Comment From Gareth Loved your article about Stephew Drew. The thing that intruiged me was the MLB improvement at SS. Have shortstops really improved THAT dramatically the past 2 years? I remember a recent time when the position was a barren wasteland of talent.

9:26

Jeff Sullivan: Most teams have what at least looks like the possibility of an answer at the position. It’s still pretty weak, relatively speaking, since there are still starting Florimons and Hechavarrias and Escobars, but right now Derek Jeter is projected to be one of the worst starting shortstops in MLB

9:26	Jeff Sullivan: Still few elite talents, but lots of young talent is in the process of emerging and trying to establish itself

9:26	Comment From Gareth What do you think about Scott Boras’s ideas on changing the QO format (such as banning to QO to Free Agents over 30?)

9:27	Jeff Sullivan: I’d go two steps further and just get rid of compensation

9:27	Comment From Prich Things likely to quickly pick back up in MLB, now that the Holiday Season is over?

9:27	Jeff Sullivan: Plenty should happen quick right around the Tanaka signing deadline

9:27	Jeff Sullivan: And then from there it’s just a short few weeks until the start of spring training, which some people get really excited about

9:27	Comment From GSon The Tanaka Sweepstakes..anything more definitive going on.. or all speculation, still?

9:28	Jeff Sullivan: Not going to be much in the way of meaningful movement until the deadline approaches in earnest. No real reason for Tanaka to sign before then

9:28	Comment From Collin What do you think of Tyson Ross and Josh Johnson for 2014. I am skeptical of Johnson as a pitcher but like him being a Padre.

9:28	Jeff Sullivan: I think they could both reasonably end up anywhere between 0-5 WAR. I like that kind of player volatility on a Padres team that needs some breaks to contend

9:29	Jeff Sullivan: If I’m wrong to be enchanted by risky high-upside pitchers, then slap me in fuzzy handcuffs

9:29	Comment From PK Subban I made Team Canada!!!

9:29	Jeff Sullivan: go to hell

9:29	Comment From Oren What should the Jays offer Stephen Drew?

9:30	Jeff Sullivan: Well realistically nothing until/unless they hear that he’d be willing to play second base

9:30	Jeff Sullivan: But then start at 3/$30 million and see what that does. Be willing to increase by a few million

9:30	Comment From Highway61 What other projection systems will be in the player pages this year? Thanks

9:31	Jeff Sullivan: Steamer, Oliver, Marcel, ZiPS…Fans?

9:31	Comment From Tedley Is Ken Gurnick more brave or dumb for publishing his HoF ballot?

9:31	Jeff Sullivan: Probably neither. It’s professional to publish one’s ballot but Gurnick also obviously doesn’t care about his feedback

9:32	Jeff Sullivan: If anything he wants that outrage. Which would be the opposite of bravery

9:32	Comment From A. Lane When discussing how a different batted ball profile would benefit a hitter, more fly balls for a slugger, is not the null hypothesis that GB% and FB% rates are very stable? If this is true what would be considered a significant change in GB% /FB% rates?

9:33	Jeff Sullivan: Obviously that depends on the sample sizes but as a rule of thumb a change starts getting my attention when it’s around 5 percentage points or so. 10 and it’s really something

9:34

Jeff Sullivan: But remember that a batted-ball profile is the result in large part of the characteristics of a batter’s swing, and it’s not easy for them to just be like “welp I guess I better put more balls in the air.” Change like that isn’t simple and sometimes players just have to maximize what they have

9:34	Comment From Erich With the rash of players (Morales, Cruz, etc.) seemingly overestimating their markets and rejecting their initial teams’ QOs, how do you think the calculus changes with regards to players accepting QOs in the future?

9:35	Jeff Sullivan: Again, I think we should wait to see where these guys actually end up before we look for conclusions, but clearly players and their agents are going to need to have longer, more realistic conversations

9:35	Jeff Sullivan: I’d say it’s more likely a player accepts now than it was a few months ago

9:36	Comment From Eastern NC PEDs aside, are Sosa and McGwire HOF players?

9:36	Jeff Sullivan: Right on the border, so it’s all about how big of a hall you prefer to have

9:37	Jeff Sullivan: My own mental cutoff is right around 60 career WAR, and that’s more or less where Sosa and McGwire find themselves

9:37	Comment From LarryA Have you ever been to Cooperstown?

9:37	Jeff Sullivan: nope

9:38	Comment From RotoLando What can we expect from Year 2 of the Oswaldo Arcia Experience?

9:38	Jeff Sullivan: Actual positive value

9:38	Jeff Sullivan: but not very much of it

9:38	Jeff Sullivan: sorry 🙁

9:38	Comment From Bradley Have the M’s front office said anything about Tanaka or is it all just talk from outside sources right now?

9:38	Jeff Sullivan: The M’s front office doesn’t talk

9:39	Jeff Sullivan: Like literally, even when they’re directly engaged face to face

9:39	Jeff Sullivan: they just stare until you feel like you’re the one being weird

9:39	Jeff Sullivan: It’s abundantly obvious that the Mariners will be heavily involved on Tanaka. They don’t need to say anything

9:39	Comment From tehzachatak As a former SBNation writer – any comment on Viva El Birdos happenings?

9:40

Jeff Sullivan: I only saw Dan’s post and haven’t looked for any sort of follow-up, but Dan is an excellent baseball writer and SBNation will be just fine as a baseball business and brand without him because traffic is the internet’s only currency at the moment and so far we’ve been unable to do better than that

9:41	Jeff Sullivan: VEB will be worse; SBN won’t notice

9:41	Comment From Conrad is it possible Stephen Drew doesn’t get signed at all? Your article points out the dinky market…after all, no one is obligated to sign him. Talk about little/no leverage…

9:41	Jeff Sullivan: Thought the same about Kyle Lohse before he got 3/$33m

9:42	Jeff Sullivan: Drew has some value to EVERYONE. Just a matter of compromises. He’ll get some millions

9:42	Comment From Eastern NC Should the Orioles sign Morales? Nelson Cruz? Is a guy like Morales worth a first round pick?

9:43	Jeff Sullivan: They should sign whichever one would settle for like 2/$20m

9:43	Jeff Sullivan: It’s basically between them and the Mariners for both, and the Mariners have less room for Morales than they do for Cruz

9:44	Jeff Sullivan: You don’t want to give up a first-rounder for either, but then a pick is nothing but a few million dollars, really. So you just account for that in the size of your FA bid

9:44	Comment From Eastern NC Starlin Castro: the next Jose Lopez? Great start, poor finish to a career?

9:44	Jeff Sullivan: Increasingly looking like that

9:45	Jeff Sullivan: still waiting on the weird season with 25 dingers though

9:45	Comment From Guest Whats all this about a supervolcano?

9:45	Jeff Sullivan: too much

9:45	Comment From Swing and a Miss Puiggy what are your thoughts on Garin Cecchini?

9:45	Jeff Sullivan: Legitimate major-league prospect, easily confused with Gavin Cecchini

9:46	Comment From Ohio The community blog has had some interesting stuff of late. Do you enjoy reading those articles? Have a favorite article in the last few weeks or so?

9:47

Jeff Sullivan: I’m glad the blog has become so active over the past few months, after a series of starts and non-starts. As the editor of said blog, I read everything! Even the posts that don’t make it. I enjoy reading them a *little* less just because of the editing required, but not everyone requires much help and there’s creativity out there

9:47	Jeff Sullivan: Remember folks! Submitting to the community blog is the best way to get noticed by FG and maybe end up on the front page

9:47	Comment From LarryA Is is impossible for the Mets to catch up to the Yankees in revenue in 10 years? 50 years? What would it take aside from 25 World Series?

9:48	Jeff Sullivan: I don’t know anything about the nature of finance, really, but the Mets aren’t catching the Yankees. The Yankees will forever be a baseball empire.

9:48	Jeff Sullivan: How’s that for authority

9:48	Comment From Someguy Chacin was once a heralded pitching prospect, but he hasn’t looked very studly? What kind of a floor/ceiling sitch are we looking at with him?

9:49	Jeff Sullivan: Man, he’s been weird

9:49	Jeff Sullivan: K% from 14% to 24%. GB% from 38% to 56%

9:50	Jeff Sullivan: Realistically he’s probably a #2 trying to get out but it’s so impossibly difficult to evaluate these Colorado guys in a vacuum

9:51	Jeff Sullivan: Actually I guess a vacuum is the whole problem

9:51	Jeff Sullivan: I’d like Chacin’s chances of looking amazing better somewhere else

9:53	Comment From Wilbur Care to suggest an outfielder the Mariners should target? trade more viable than the FA leftovers? (Please, no Cruz!)

9:53	Jeff Sullivan: The Mariners like Cruz the most, and could well end up with him, but my preferences would be, say, Jon Jay, or one of the Padres guys

9:54	Jeff Sullivan: People have floated the idea of Rasmus but I don’t know how well the teams match up. Wouldn’t want to trade Nick Franklin for one year of that guy

9:54	Comment From Eastern NC Shouldn’t the Orioles be in on Tanaka? Shouldn’t they be behaving more like a major market team?

9:54	Jeff Sullivan: As always, yes

9:54	Comment From Guest and what would a Sale sale garner?

9:54	Jeff Sullivan: Everything

9:54	Comment From LarryA Any indications of what type of a manager Brad Ausmus will be?

9:55	Jeff Sullivan: Simultaneously intelligent and respected

9:55	Comment From Steven Thoughts on Ken Gurnick’s ballot?

9:56	Jeff Sullivan: The sun is shining somewhere, and we’re all just trying to find it. Don’t get tripped up along the way in your pursuit of eternal warmth.

9:56	Comment From Grack Zeinke have to think all Drew negotiations have to be about a 3rd yr. Makes sense that the Sox would still want him back for 1 or even 2 yrs. Boras has got to be holding out for 3. Mets prob would go 3 but only with price drop.

9:56	Jeff Sullivan: Absolutely no reason for either team to cave. This is why Boras might need the Blue Jays

9:57	Comment From zack Should Dodgers fans be legitimately concerned about the lack of a Kershaw extension?

9:57	Jeff Sullivan: Getting there. They’re still the Dodgers, and he’s still Clayton Kershaw, but this has advanced far beyond what I ever expected.

9:57	Comment From Grack Zeinke Still so many arms available! Should make for a fun month. Wheeee!

9:57	Jeff Sullivan: More like a fun four or five days. They’ll all topple in a hurry. Maybe even David Price

9:57	Comment From Nick How should the White Sox handle their second base situation; continue with Gordon Beckham or explore a new option like Marcus Semein or Carlos Sanchez?

9:58	Jeff Sullivan: Thankfully they have the luxury of being not good right now, with low expectations

9:59	Jeff Sullivan: They should weave Semein in some more

9:59	Jeff Sullivan: Don’t think much of anything of Sanchez or Leury Garcia