Jeff Sullivan FanGraphs Chat — 2/1/19

Jeff Sullivan: Hello friends

Jeff Sullivan: Welcome to Friday baseball chat

San Diegan: Are the Padres signing Harper or Machado OR BOTH???

Jeff Sullivan: Not both!

Jeff Sullivan: Probably not one of them, either!

Jeff Sullivan: But their interest is legitimate. I assume they’re going to end up priced out, but Machado is such an obvious fit that they might as well remain involved

HappyFunBall: Are the Reds trying to build the most averagest team ever?

Jeff Sullivan: If you can be a mostly average team, then you only need a small number of above-average performers to stay in contention

Jeff Sullivan: And with guys like Votto, Suarez, Puig, and Castillo, the top of their roster looks pretty interesting

AJ: I read a news article about a man being murdered with what  the article (I’m assuming) incorrectly said was a 10-pound Louisville Slugger. Could anyone actually make decent contact on a regular basis swinging a 10 pound stick?

Jeff Sullivan: Contact with a victim, yes

Jeff Sullivan: Contact with a pitched baseball, no

Jeff Sullivan: The average baseball bat is ~2 pounds

Jeff Sullivan: I don’t think a bat could really be constructed to be all that much more dense

Jeff Sullivan: So you’re talking about a bat with five times the volume(!!!). I guess you could be a good bunter!

stever20: do you think we’re going to see the DL moved back to 15 days like there’s talk of?

Jeff Sullivan: Depends how many teams have been annoyed by the Dodgers the last few years

Jeff Sullivan: I don’t have a very clear sense of momentum on this issue. But it’s also a minor issue, relatively speaking. In this day and age teams are probably more opposed than supportive

Johnny : Several weeks ago you mentioned Dave Cameron is enjoying his work with the Padres, though it’s a bit different than was expected. Can you elaborate, at least in general terms, how it’s different than expected?

Jeff Sullivan: So, obviously, I’m not at liberty to go into great detail here. But!

Jeff Sullivan: When you have a hire like Dave, I think you present a job description, but it’s a job description with pretty huge error bars, so to speak. The point isn’t so much to get Dave to fill a specific role — the point is to get Dave, and then develop a role over time

Jeff Sullivan: Based on his strengths, he’s in different communication from what he thought. He has different responsibilities. One could say more responsibilities. He is…very busy

Tim: At this point, do you think Edwin Encarnacion starts the season as a Mariner? Doesn’t seem to be much of a market for him

Jeff Sullivan: I don’t know where he would go

Jeff Sullivan: He’s an AL player with diminishing skills. He’s mostly a DH. The competitive AL landscape is mostly set

Jeff Sullivan: Of course, one injury in spring training changes the picture. That might be how the next door opens

wolfs: What is Yasiel Puig this season? I find the ZiPS projection notably low (and the Richard Hidalgo player comp made me chuckle). Am I off base here?

Jeff Sullivan: Puig has a 120 wRC+ over his last thousand or so plate appearances. I don’t think he’ll ever be the model of consistency and there’s a chance he’ll be forced into playing CF, which he shouldn’t, but he ought to be an above-average regular outfielder for the Reds

Pessimistic Brewers Fan: Will Wade Miley start spinning 3,000 RPM curveballs next year now that he’s with the Astros and why would the Brewers or some other interested party not take a flyer for that cheap?

Jeff Sullivan: Miley in 2017: 128 ERA-, 106 xFIP-
Miley in 2018: 63 ERA-, 106 xFIP-

Jeff Sullivan: I know that he folded in a new cutter, and I know that he generated weak contact. But let’s say some other team signed Miley instead. Let’s say it was the Orioles or the Royals. Then we’d all shrug and say, welp, he’s gonna regress pretty hard

Jeff Sullivan: It’s interesting whenever you observe that kind of exceptional performance. I think the Astros might figure there could be something to throwing a bunch of cutters these days. Certainly worked for Anibal Sanchez. Astros might figure Miley has what it takes to serve as a cheap Keuchel replacement. But Miley has thrown a below-average rate of strikes for consecutive years. There’s actual risk here he’s going to be bad

Mark: Is the Indians current OF of Luplow, Martin, and Naquin the worst in baseball or just the worst of teams expected to finish over .500?

Jeff Sullivan: According to Steamer, the average outfield right now is projected for 7.3 WAR

Jeff Sullivan: The Indians are at 3.5

Jeff Sullivan: The bottom five teams:

Giants, 1.7
Royals, 3.5
Indians, 3.5
Orioles, 4.0
Marlins, 4.0

Jeff Sullivan: So: almost yes, and, yes!

Ross: Does Whit Merrifield’s contract with the Royals really eliminate him as a trade candidate? It didn’t really give them any more control, just locked in his salaries. Of course, he’ll at least start the season in KC, because signing someone to a contract like that and then trading them before they’ve played a game wouldn’t be a good look, but doesn’t this feel a bit like the contract the Padres signed Brad Hand to last year? No one really thought it meant he was staying in San Diego long term

Jeff Sullivan: The contract itself doesn’t change Merrifield’s trade status, but it does reflect the present reality of Merrifield’s trade status — that is, the Royals want to keep him around on account of his experience and leadership, to say nothing of his value

Jeff Sullivan: Ask the Royals right now, and they’d tell you they don’t want to let Merrifield go. That’s true at the moment. But circumstances are always changing. How the Royals feel about Merrifield today isn’t necessarily going to be how they feel about him in five months

Conner from AZ: According to Nick Groke at The Athletic the Rockies are planning to move Blackmon to LF and Desmond to CF. Any optimism for Ian not being a completely sunken cost now that he’s moving back to a premium defensive position?

Jeff Sullivan: Not really

Jeff Sullivan: I mean, Desmond is a fine athlete, and he might be the Rockies’ best current solution in CF, but Billy Hamilton got non-tendered in this same offseason. Desmond is a little better as a hitter, but he’s the far worse runner and the far worse defender. I don’t see a whole lot of promise, especially now that he’s 33

Walker: Brewers still need a second baseman and the farm system is looking pretty weak due to trades/graduations. Do you think there’s a chance they’d trade Hiura to a team that needs to consolidate prospects like the Rays for a big league 2B like Wendle/Lowe/Robertson and some prospects to restock the system, or is that just too out there/not in line with what they’re trying to do?

Jeff Sullivan: If anything at this point, I think the Brewers need to hang on to guys like Hiura, because they’re still a low-budget operation and they’re going to need long-term, cost-controlled talent. More likely, I think, is that they just search for some capable stopgap and then reevaluate midseason. There are always infielders available midseason, and they’re available for affordable prices

John: We’re less than two weeks away from pitchers and catchers reporting. J.T. Realmuto will be reporting as a…?

Jeff Sullivan: I’m going to stick my neck out for the Dodgers

Jeff Sullivan: I think they make the most sense overall

Shaun: Are people sleeping on Miguel Cabrera this season?

Jeff Sullivan: Could you blame them?

Jake: Whenever you or any of the other writers at FanGraphs has an article idea, do you always check with the others to make sure no one else is writing the same thing?

Jeff Sullivan: We have a Slack where we claim topics if we think there’s a chance someone might want to be doing the same thing

Jeff Sullivan: Other times, you just know there’s no way anyone else shares your same idea

Steve: Will there be a Kikuchi page up before Spring Training, like Ohtani last year?

Jeff Sullivan: Yeah, it should be there any day now. I don’t know why it’s taking so long

caesarsolid: let’s say Harper just says fine I’ll do this again next year and says publicly he will go for the highest one year base salary contract he is offered,  how high would it realistically get?

Jeff Sullivan: The Phillies are something like $54 million short of the CBT threshold

Jeff Sullivan: The threshold isn’t a hard cap, but if we just treat it as if it were something of a limit, I could see Harper going to Philly for about $45 million

raysfan: Beltre and Colon were the last pitcher and position player left that played in the 90s. Who will be the last ones left from the 00s?

Jeff Sullivan: This is harder than you might’ve expected

Jeff Sullivan: I’m just going to say Clayton Kershaw on the pitching side

Jeff Sullivan: And then…god, I mean, maybe Elvis Andrus?

Jeff Sullivan: Dude was only 20 in 2009, so he’s only 30 today. He’s still a capable everyday player and people love to be around him

Jeff Sullivan: These are not guesses made with confidence

caesarsolid: What will be the most competitive division in 2019?

Jeff Sullivan: NL Central

Kiermaier’s Piercing Green Eyes: In the event of a strike, what happens to MiLB? What about players in the minors who are in the MLBPA?

Jeff Sullivan: The 1993 PCL had 710 games

Jeff Sullivan: The 1994 PCL had 710 games

Jeff Sullivan: The 1995 PCL had 716 games

Jeff Sullivan: So at least based on that example, the minor-league schedule plays out as it otherwise would, since those players aren’t part of the union and wouldn’t be participating in a work stoppage

Jeff Sullivan: Of some note: http://www.espn.com/mlb/story/_/id/12581513/the-20-year-anniversary-st…

Jeff Sullivan: Cubs broadcaster Ron Coomer, who was in the Dodgers organization at the time, said Los Angeles put a lot of pressure on minor leaguers to cross the line and play (which he did not). It was an especially difficult situation for minor leaguers who weren’t on the 40-man roster but occasionally were asked to play in the replacement games. They weren’t in the union, but they didn’t want to go against the union either. Yet they also didn’t want to upset the team employing them and dictating their careers.

“It put them in a terrible position,” Coomer said. “It was really unfortunate for some of those young guys. … It was just a terrible situation for everybody. I think ownership handled it poorly. I think the players’ union handled it poorly, because everyone was put in a tough spot and some of those young players ended up getting the brunt of all the issues that happened.”

Jeff Sullivan: I don’t think this completely answers your questions

Jeff Sullivan: I can’t completely answer your questions. I would need to do more research and I’ve already slowed down this live chat enough

mmddyyyy: Which tools age most gracefully into the extremes? (Like old-timers-game age?)

Jeff Sullivan: I think you’re looking for command, and the ability to make the baseball move, at least as a pitcher

Jeff Sullivan: On the hitting side, I’d guess that your eye ages fairly well, at least relative to the other skills, but vision gets worse for each and every one of us, and so does reaction time

Jeff Sullivan: Given that, then maybe just raw power?

Jack: I know you don’t care about the Hall of Fame — and really, I don’t care that much either — but do you think Ben Zobrist will deserve any consideration one day? Sure, he was a late bloomer and most of his traditional numbers don’t scream Hall of Famer, but I don’t think the Hall of Fame should just be about who had the best numbers (and obviously it isn’t, or Bonds and Clemens would be in). He kind of revolutionized the game to an extent and had every team looking for the next Ben Zobrist, played a big role in helping two different teams win the World Series, including driving home the championship-winning run that ended the Cubs’ curse. He’s an important figure of the last decade of baseball

Jeff Sullivan: The snarky response is that if Harold Baines can make it, Ben Zobrist can make it

Jeff Sullivan: The less snarky response is no

Jeff Sullivan: Zobrist has had a great career, and it’s still not even over, but I don’t think there’s going to be enough openness to his argument

Jeff Sullivan: It’s not as if utility players didn’t exist before he did. He’s just been a utility player who could hit and play almost every day

Jeff Sullivan: Don’t think he falls off after the first ballot, but if Lance Berkman couldn’t get anyone going, Zobrist probably won’t, either

mmddyyyy: How much better is a hit than a walk?

Jeff Sullivan: https://www.fangraphs.com/guts.aspx?type=cn

Jeff Sullivan: A single is 28% better than a walk

Jeff Sullivan: A double is 81% better than a walk

Jeff Sullivan: (And so on and so forth)

Phan: any thoughts on Jorge Alfaro for the upcoming season? Looked league avg in his rookie year.

Jeff Sullivan: He hits like a less-patient Mike Zunino, so I don’t believe in the bat yet that much. But over the course of last season, Alfaro made meaningful progress behind the plate defensively, so I buy him as a legitimate option to start 100 games

Jeff Sullivan: Alfaro is one of those guys where his tolerability depends entirely on whether he hits two homers in a week, or zero

LPFan: Do you think players will be more likely to sign pre-FA extensions now?

Jeff Sullivan: Yes

mmddyyyy: Does chase% account for batter propensity to chase?

Jeff Sullivan: That is what it is

Jeff Sullivan: Chase rate is basically just a different term for out-of-zone swing rate, because out-of-zone swing rate is too long

Syndergaardians of the Galaxy : I’m going to celebrate when we finally have a chat wherein Harper & Machado are both not mentioned.

Jeff Sullivan: Well, they’re two premium players, so if they don’t show up in a chat, that might well mean something has gone terribly wrong

Friend: If the Nats sign Harper, which of the other outfielders gets traded? Eaton? Robles? Taylor? What type of return could you get for each of them?

Jeff Sullivan: Eaton

Jeff Sullivan: The return would be a modest two-prospect package, with one of them being major-league ready as a reliever

tommytoms: if a baseball team offered you, $175 million, would you turn it down?

Jeff Sullivan: No?

Jeff Sullivan: I’d take it, I’d suck, and then I’d be released, $175 million richer

Jeff Sullivan: Or I guess like $90 million richer after taxes. That’s probably still good enough

Moltar: So, for one, I think people on the pro-player side should stop using the term “luxury tax” in favor of the more accurate term “soft cap”. Secondly, in the next CBA, they should push for an underpayment tax, sort of a reverse luxury tax, where an offending team that spends $X under the floor has to pay a tax on that amount directly to the players association.

Jeff Sullivan: https://theathletic.com/790747/2019/01/29/rosenthal-inside-the-frayed-…

Jeff Sullivan: “Since 2007, players have received between 53 and 57 percent of revenue annually, including 54.8 percent in 2018. Those figures, which include amateur signing bonuses and minor-league salaries, are audited and given to the union. They are not in dispute.”

Jeff Sullivan: Spending doesn’t actually seem to be the problem. It’s just that the salaries need to be redistributed to players when they’re younger and better. And baseball could certainly stand to do more to incentivize short-term winning

Dylan: Jed Lowrie’s wRC+ over the last 2 seasons is 121. Manny Machado’s is 122.

Jeff Sullivan: I can do you one better. 2017-2018 WAR:

Jeff Sullivan: Manny Machado, 8.8
Jed Lowrie, 8.5
Justin Upton, 8.4
Bryce Harper, 8.3

Jeff Sullivan: But Lowrie is 34. Machado is 26. That’s like 75% of the argument

Padsfan: I don’t understand the need for Reamoulto for the Padres. Mejia could be as good in a few years and Hedges is great defensively. Why not try a yeae?

Jeff Sullivan: It remains unclear whether Mejia can actually stick as a catcher. Realmuto is the best catcher in the game

Ray Liotta as Shoeless Joe: Hypothetical: If you had no viable starting pitching depth, but a great player under control like Jose Ramirez or Mike Trout, would you rather trade your Ramirez our Trout and replenish your depth, or sign a bunch of free agents to take advantage of having an insanely good controlled talent?

Jeff Sullivan: I’d invest very heavily in tech and player development, so as to try to create our own starting pitching depth. Pitchers can be so pliable, and I have a deep belief that good pitching can pop up out of almost nowhere, given the right instruction and guidance

Michael: Hi Jeff, how would you go about optimizing Carlos Rodon? Is going full-Corbin and greatly increasing his slider usage the easiest starting point? Would love to hear your thoughts and if you’ve heard any chatter about what the Sox have in mind with him.

Jeff Sullivan: I can only offer so much in an on-the-fly chat format, but if I were Rodon, I’d definitely throw more sliders, and perhaps more importantly, I’d throw a lot more sinkers at the expense of my four-seamer. Not only does a sinker pair better with a slider, but I think Rodon’s sinker in particular pairs well with his mediocre changeup. That’s where I’d start

Jeff Sullivan: Last year, Rodon threw 49% four-seamers, 11% sinkers, 26% sliders, and 14% changeups. I’d try something like…10%, 40%, 40%, 10%

Carl: Let’s say all offers were equal. Among the reported suitors, where would you sign if you were Bryce? Manny?

Jeff Sullivan: Harper to the Phillies, Machado to the Padres. But I don’t know how much Machado might want to play in the spotlight. He obviously wouldn’t get the same attention in San Diego

Jeff Sullivan: Could be a good thing

mmddyyyy: At what point in spring training will you start watching games?

Jeff Sullivan: Full games? No point

Jeff Sullivan: Video clips? Immediately

Jim Leyland Palmer: Obviously we have yet to see the contacts Harper and Machado will wind up settling on. But, do you think Scot Boras has lost a little cachet from this offseason?

Jeff Sullivan: Also last offseason

Jeff Sullivan: His methods don’t work so well when owners are increasingly comfortable relying on their front offices to negotiate

greg: We’ve seen the Realmuto trade talks in “advanced stages” for a while now.  Do you think this is the Marlins trying to drum up a bidding war among the handful of teams who have made their offers and are just waiting them out?

Jeff Sullivan: If the talks *weren’t* in advanced stages by now, then the Marlins would have to have been criminally incompetent

Jeff Sullivan: Also:

Jeff Sullivan:

 

Joe Frisaro

@JoeFrisaro

 

As @CraigMish reported @Marlins and #Brewers have talked regarding Christian Yelich. I’m hearing many teams in mix…. twitter.com/i/web/status/9…

23 Jan 2018

Jeff Sullivan: “As @CraigMish reported @Marlins and #Brewers have talked regarding Christian Yelich. I’m hearing many teams in mix. Nothing is in advanced stages. Lewis Brinson is a target for Miami.”

Jeff Sullivan: A day and a half later, Yelich went to Milwaukee

Jeff Sullivan: These things move fast, eventually. Everyone in the Realmuto sweepstakes is trying to out-game everyone else

Sharp: If Harper stays in DC, can’t they convert Soto (a fairly mediocre fielder) to 1st?

Jeff Sullivan: They could, but they wouldn’t have to. Pretty early to pigeonhole a 20-year-old

Marc: It’s probably for the millionth time, but could you explain how the Yankees could be projected for about one WAR above the Red Sox but also be projected to win 95 while the Red Sox win 96?

Jeff Sullivan: I don’t have a specific answer for you. All I can say is that projected WAR and projected standings follow different calculations, such that there’s not an exact 1-to-1 relationship. David Appelman might know more of the details. And ultimately the differences between the two are virtually negligible

Theo : How is my Hamels decision looking today?

Jeff Sullivan: One year, $20 million

Jeff Sullivan: JA Happ got two years, $34 million

Jeff Sullivan: Charlie Morton got two years, $30 million

Jeff Sullivan: You could say that Hamels signed for twice as much as guys like Harvey, Cahill, and Sabathia, but Hamels is also more reliable than they are

Jeff Sullivan: Not great, not bad. It’s not only Hamels’ fault the Cubs are basically out of wiggle room

Ginny: It feels like over the course of this winter I’ve gone from the 20/80 “chances of a strike are overblown” crowd to 80/20 “I don’t know what winter those people are watching.” Agree, disagree?

Jeff Sullivan: I do agree that that’s been your course!

Jeff Sullivan: But at least on the internet, the union side is winning the messaging battle. I personally remain a work-stoppage skeptic, given the amount of money there is in the game today. I think everyone understands the way that players are compensated needs to change. I don’t think baseball will allow for the game to go dark at a time when it might be harder to win fans back afterward than ever

Jeff Sullivan: Baseball is already dealing with attendance and attention issues. There are more forms of entertainment vying for eyes and money than ever before in the history of the globe. Not a great time for MLB to temporarily self-destruct

Charlie: Hey, I noticed that Seth Lugo isn’t projected on the depth charts to make any starts this season. I find that hard to believe.

Jeff Sullivan: From Lugo’s Rotoworld page: “Mets manager Mickey Callaway is on record as saying he plans to keep Lugo in the bullpen next year rather than move him back into the rotation.”

Thanks for the Chat!: With the recent luxury tax rules, is the amount of “dead money” moving between teams increasing among top teams as a way to circumvent exceeding limits? Or another way to look at it, is actual payroll starting to far exceed luxury tax payroll? (teams like Dodgers seem adept at this)

Jeff Sullivan: If I’m thinking about this right, for every team paying more than its calculated CBT payroll, there’ll be another team paying less

Jeff Sullivan: But just generally speaking, money is definitely more of a factor in trade talks than ever, because payroll is being treated as more important than ever. With limitations in place, and with those limitations being taken seriously as soft caps, it makes sense that trades will become about more than just player talent

Verde: A’s can still afford both Edwin Jackson and Matt Wieters, yes?

Jeff Sullivan: Sure

mmddyyyy: If Ohtani asked for a trade, what would the Angels do?

Jeff Sullivan: Keep him

joey steel: Tetsuto Yamada has been dominating the NPB for years and is referred to as the “Japanese Mike Trout”. Know anything about why he isn’t coming stateside?

Jeff Sullivan: I imagine he will eventually, but I think he might be waiting until he’s eligible for international free agency. Yakult might not think it’s worth posting him if MLB teams are less intrigued by Japanese hitters than pitchers

GSon: Do the Reds’ roster look more than a little above average if they replace Castillo ( and Winker) with Kluber  while only additionally giving up Trammell? ..and would Dick Williams make that deal, if offered?

Jeff Sullivan: That’s a huge deal that I wouldn’t want any part of

Jeff Sullivan: You’re adding by subtracting, with a non-elite roster. I’d rather just hope for Castillo and Winker to continue their development

Um…: Let’s say Machado goes to PHI and Harper back to WAS. Why would HOU/BOS/LAD/CLE have decided to just not be better this offseason (WAS, PHI, NYY, NYM seem to have clearly improved)?

Jeff Sullivan: We’re still waiting on a Realmuto trade

Jeff Sullivan: The Astros and Dodgers are real possibilities

Jeff Sullivan: And also, those teams are just all…really good. There’s not actually that much incentive to try to get better than already really good in the offseason. The teams are good and deep and in some cases not threatened by another team in the same division. If there are needs, they can be addressed in June or July

thor: Does the Wade Miley Houston signing take them out of the running for Keuchel? Seems like they got a below average Keuchel for around 70M and 4 years less with Miley’s ability to generate GB last year.

Jeff Sullivan: I don’t think it takes them out of the market, but I do think someone else will pursue Keuchel with greater urgency. The Astros don’t need him

Ryan: Hi Jeff, thanks for chatting, and congrats on the SABR nomination. How many ABs do you think Willians Astudillo gets this year?

Jeff Sullivan: Not even close to enough, Ryan

Jeff Sullivan: All right, I need to get rolling

Jeff Sullivan: So thank you everybody for hanging out, and I’m sorry for what I didn’t or couldn’t address. We’ll do it again next week at the same time, and until then, be well and have great days