Jeff Sullivan FanGraphs Chat — 2/21/18

9:05	Jeff Sullivan: Hello friends

9:05	Jeff Sullivan: Welcome to one-time Wednesday baseball chat

9:06	Jeff Sullivan: Kiley is out of the country and could only chat on Friday this week, so we pulled off a temporary swap. Sorry for you disappointed Kiley fans!

9:07	Ryan H: Thoughts on Forrest Whitley?

9:08

Jeff Sullivan: Haven’t seen specifically what he’s being suspended for. All I know is he’s being suspended. These things are typically about weed, and while no minor-league player should be smoking weed while it’s a suspension-worthy activity, it’s absurd that they can be suspended for this and big-leaguers can’t

9:09	Jeff Sullivan: Speaking just in generalities, I doubt this reflects a huge behavior problem on Whitley’s part, and I expect that he’ll still reach the majors by the end of the summer

9:09	Jim: Colby Rasmus to the Orioles. Can he pitch?

9:09	Jeff Sullivan: Can Chris Tillman?

9:09	Ryan H: When will Cameron Maybin be traded?

9:09	Jeff Sullivan: Fingers crossed that he eventually gets dealt for Miguel Cabrera

9:10	Chip Johnson: The Diamondbacks front office seems to be pretty excellent.

9:10	Jeff Sullivan: I’m a big fan of whichever team goes out and gets Jarrod Dyson. Easy way to earn my support

9:10	Jeff Sullivan: Now, I like Anthony Banda, but Souza’s the real deal. Way better than them trying to pay for J.D. Martinez

9:13	X: Were the Orioles wrong to move Machado off of short? At the time, they had an above-average shortstop in Hardy and an average third baseman in Reynolds. Wasn’t Hardy/Machado better than Reynolds/Machado?

9:14

Jeff Sullivan: Back then, Hardy was still pretty special, so it would’ve been hard to convince him to move. And Reynolds was something of a defensive disaster, so instead of Hardy at SS and Reynolds at 3B, the Orioles wound up with Reynolds at 1B, Hardy at SS, and Machado at 3B. Made the defense a million times better

9:15	Jeff Sullivan: Then after Machado got injured, I imagine that informed the decision to keep him away from short for a while. Now, in retrospect, he probably could’ve handled it, but I don’t think the Orioles suffered as a consequence

9:15	Jack: The Rays say it’s extremely unlikely that they subtract further and that they’re probably gonna look to add now. They currently have three outfielders, all of whom hit left-handed. Who do you see them signing? Gomez? Bautista? Ideally neither Span or Smith would have to play against lefties

9:17	Jeff Sullivan: I think Gomez would work well as a cheap add, as he’s fairly similar to Souza. The only issue there is that Gomez is a Boras client, so who knows how cheap he might actually be

9:18	Jeff Sullivan: Bautista has been connected for a while but that would strictly be to DH; can’t imagine the Rays of all teams would want to watch Jose Bautista in the outfield every day

9:18	Jeff Sullivan: I do take the Rays at their word that they aren’t tanking. They certainly haven’t made themselves better, but my personal belief is that the public has overreacted to what’s happening. It’s tough from a fan perspective, absolutely, but the club isn’t bad

9:18	Sterling Malory Chris Archer: What should I tell my boss now that I’ll be here for the next two hours for a surprise Sullivan chat?

9:18	Jeff Sullivan: Tell your boss to log into the chat

9:19	Babe Lincoln: Has this year had more turnover at FG than usual?

9:19	Jeff Sullivan: No question, mostly because there was never much turnover before. Losing Dave to the Padres was something that long would’ve been unimaginable

9:20	Jeff Sullivan: Dave Cameron, Eno Sarris, Paul Swydan, Chris Mitchell — they were all here for a while. Now, we also have Jay Jaffe, Kiley McDaniel, Meg Rowley, and even more contributors who have or have not yet been announced

9:21	Jeff Sullivan: I know that from the audience perspective, turnover is hard to get used to. But if it makes any difference, I’m not going to go anywhere

9:21	Jeff Sullivan: Unless the Padres give me an offer I cannot refuse, too

9:23	Ryan H: How much regression should we expect from Marwin Gonzalez?

9:23	Jeff Sullivan: A lot. I think he’s more of a 110 wRC+ kind of player

9:23	Corey: Thoughts on Whitley’s PED suspension?

9:23	Jeff Sullivan: Not a PED suspension

9:23	CamdenWarehouse: I’m really confused about how Arizona is making deals. How does the America’s Cup get to Phoenix?

9:23	Jeff Sullivan: Scott Boras is simultaneously very creative and kind of stupid

9:24	Bork: wait what

9:24	Jeff Sullivan: Hello friend?

9:24	Ehhhhhrly. : Anybody buying Blash? Want to see him come to the Rays.

9:24	Jeff Sullivan: I badly, badly, BADLY want to see him get 500 major-league plate appearances. I don’t know who would actually give them to him

9:24	Jeff Sullivan: If I had my druthers, he’d go be the regular DH for the White Sox

9:25	Jeff Sullivan: He can hit the absolute shit out of the ball. Let him try to do it! The world has seen enough of Matt Davidson

9:26	Ross: Donaldson says he and the Jays aren’t really in the same ballpark in contract talks, that he’s shelved those talks for now to focus on the season, and that he expects to hit free agency after the season. Would you put Donaldson’s chances of being a Blue Jay on August 1st at over or under 50%?

9:26	Jeff Sullivan: Over. I think they’ll be too close to the wild card to sell their best player

9:27	CJL: How do you respond to the folks on Baseball Internet calling FG “anti-labor” or whatever this offseason? FG obviously is not, but interested in your personal thoughts here

9:28	Jeff Sullivan: Nobody who works for FanGraphs is pro-ownership and anti-labor. The allegation is absurd

9:29

Jeff Sullivan: I understand that we’re entering an era where everyone hates every billionaire, and of course there are owners who don’t invest as much as they ought to. But we write about how the baseball industry functions. The players’ share of revenue hasn’t significantly decreased over the past several years

9:32	Jeff Sullivan: No one on staff doesn’t want the players to get paid. At the same time, it’s true that building through free agency isn’t the smartest idea. It’s also true that baseball has limited spending capability by putting caps on amateur investments

9:33	Jeff Sullivan: The solution is to direct more money to younger players. You raise minimum salaries, and you blow up arbitration. If there’s a problem developing, that’s how you fix it

9:33	Jeff Sullivan: Also, you pay the players in the damn minor leagues

9:33	Jeff Sullivan: This has gotten a little rambly, but whatever, it’s a chat

9:34	Rick James: Who has a better chance of having a bounce back year – Price or Tanka?

9:34	Jeff Sullivan: I think Tanaka has done more to put his injury behind him. Price’s is still a little too fresh for my comfort

9:35	Sterling Malory Chris Archer: Replace Buxton with a AAAA CF, how much does this affect Jose Berrios’ stat line?

9:36	Jeff Sullivan: Let’s see. Last year, Berrios allowed 101 flies or liners to center field

9:37	Jeff Sullivan: The league-average BABIP on those was .346

9:37	Jeff Sullivan: Berrios allowed a BABIP on those of .333

9:38	Jeff Sullivan: We’re looking at a difference of basically just one hit

9:39	Jeff Sullivan: But the Twins overall had a BABIP on those batted balls of just .305. So that would be many more hits

9:39	Jeff Sullivan: Buxton is good, is the point

9:39	TKDC: With Dave gone, who should we complain to about the website? I’m picking you. The redesign, after trying to get used to it, is not good. It is too hard to miss things, and too hard to see what is out there once it goes off the main page.

9:40	Jeff Sullivan: I’m probably not the right person, but I’m a person, so, all right! I can talk to the right people to see if we can make improvements

9:40	Baseball Guy: Any ideas where the last few 1B/DH types will land? Morrison seems like a bargain-to-be, and Duda has always hit and should help someone. Lind and Reynolds can be major league impact guys too.

9:40	Jeff Sullivan: This is exactly why no one wanted to pay too much for Corey Dickerson, incidentally

9:41	Jeff Sullivan: I could’ve sworn that Morrison would end up in Kansas City, like he said he wanted. I’m shocked that didn’t happen immediately after Hosmer came off the board

9:42	Jeff Sullivan: I think someone ends up DHing for the White Sox. Not hard to see someone going to the Rockies to buy more time for McMahon. I also don’t want to rule the Rays out, now that they have a little bit of wiggle room

9:43	William: Does Moustakas fit in Minnesota? Anticipating Sano suspension and some DH at bats open regardless.

9:44	Jeff Sullivan: It’s not a perfect fit, but seemingly nowhere is. I don’t think Moustakas would want to sign to be a partial DH, if he has to take a shorter term

9:44	M: 2018 ROY Moncada or Willie Calhoun?

9:44	Jeff Sullivan: Ohtani

9:45	Mets GM: In hindsight, did I sign Bruce for too much? could have just gotten someone like Dyson or Dickerson on the cheap.

9:45	Jeff Sullivan: I think Bruce is a better hitter than Dickerson, and they probably didn’t feel too strongly about Dyson since they already have Lagares. I don’t love the Bruce investment but it’s not too bad

9:46

Tim: How many teams is it for you that it would just completely unfathomable that they could win the World Series this year? Like, you see no way they’re capable of getting a second Wild Card and then getting hot? The teams where you can’t talk your into believing there’s at least like a 0.1% chance where some scenario happens where enough breaks right for them

9:46	Jeff Sullivan: Marlins. That’s one

9:46	Jeff Sullivan: Tigers. That’s two

9:46	Jeff Sullivan: Royals. That’s three

9:46	Jeff Sullivan: White Sox. That’s four!

9:47	Don Von Handburger: Do you take Roto questions?

9:47	Jeff Sullivan: I don’t know anything about fantasy baseball, so I can only handle roto questions to the extent they mirror actual baseball questions

9:47	joe: How does Whitley positive test affect the timeline on when he will reach the majors

9:47	Jeff Sullivan: Pushes it back a couple weeks. But I don’t think he needs all that much more development, and if anything, this keeps him fresher down the stretch

9:47	Timmy: So the M’s are signing Lincecum, right?

9:47	Jeff Sullivan: They honestly should

9:48	Jason: Does Drury’s signing put a road block in place for either Andujar, G. Torres or both? If so, is one more impacted by the signing than the other?

9:48	Jeff Sullivan: It is a clear road block in that now Andujar doesn’t profile as the opening-day third baseman. But Andujar and Torres are highly valued by the team and they’ll play regularly as soon as they deserve it. Drury won’t be an insurmountable obstacle

9:49	HappyFunBall: So the hot stove is actually decently warm now. Yu Darvish was the cheese after all!

9:49	Jeff Sullivan: Gotta say, this has been way more fun than having to think about the early stages of spring training

9:49	Riley: What can we expect this year from Miles Mikolas? Is he worth using the top waiver claim in a dynasty league?

9:49	Jeff Sullivan: I like him. I don’t know anything about your dynasty league, but I wouldn’t be surprised at all if Mikolas is a legitimate No. 3

9:50

John: People have assumed LoMo was the backup plan for the Royals if they lost Hosmer, but does he really make much sense for a rebuilding team? They wanted Hosmer back because they felt he’s young enough and would be under contract long enough that he could be part of the next good Royals team, in addition to all the stuff about how he’s beloved in Kansas City, could be a leader for the young players, etc. I don’t know what good signing Logan Morrison to like a two or three-year contract does for them right now though. Just makes the bad teams they’re going to have over the next couple years slightly less bad? Why not just let Dozier run with it and see what he can do? On the other hand, if the Royals aren’t going to sign LoMo, then who is?

9:51

Jeff Sullivan: It’s all about the price and the market, right? It’s not worth it for the Royals to give Morrison like $18 million a year for four years. But just because they’ll be bad doesn’t mean there’s no value in making a bad team slightly better. Veterans have a place on rebuilding ballclubs. Palatability is important

9:53	Jeff Sullivan: Right now the Royals profile to start both Hunter Dozier and Cheslor Cuthbert. This is unnecessary

9:53	Jake: How angry were you that the Rays traded Souza immediately after you published that article about them not getting worse?

9:53	Jeff Sullivan: It wasn’t great

9:54	Jeff Sullivan: Souza is an actual blow to the roster. But I do believe they’ll offset it by adding now. This is not a tank job

9:54	Jeff Sullivan: There’s too much high-level talent in the organization to justify a tank

9:55

Zach: Chris Sale threw 71 innings in 2011. Chris Sale threw 192 innings in 2012. While he did throw 136 in his draft year including college, this spike is unbelievable, and yet he’s been as durable as they come (so far). While there are always exceptions to every rule, do you think we can point at this and say we really just don’t know all that much about innings increases compared to health?

9:55	Jeff Sullivan: Yep

9:55	Jeff Sullivan: Of course, generally speaking, pitching more is going to be worse for a pitcher’s health. But every single pitcher’s body is different

9:55	A Baseball Person: So, um, did the Rays just wait ’til late February to decide, “no, actually, we’re rebuilding”?

9:56	Jeff Sullivan: Not rebuilding! Just being very Rays. The Rays don’t really rebuild. They constantly aim for about 81 wins

9:56	Justin Turner’s Hair: Jeff, please don’t leave us as the others did!

9:56	Jeff Sullivan: No plan to do so

9:57	Jeff Sullivan: Paul, Eno, Chris — they weren’t full-time employees. Dave is the only full-time employee who has left, and that’s because the Padres simply bowled him over with a job offer unlike anything he could’ve imagined

9:57	Jeff Sullivan: Those jobs…they aren’t everywhere

9:57	Schmoo: Baseball players: on a scale of volcanoes to not volcanoes, how do they compare to volcanoes?

9:58	Jeff Sullivan: They spend a lot more time being active than the average volcano

9:58	Jeff Sullivan: They are strombolian