Jeff Sullivan FanGraphs Chat — 2/24/15

9:04	Jeff Sullivan: Hello friends

9:05	Jeff Sullivan: Welcome to Tuesday live FanGraphs baseball chat

9:05	Jeff Sullivan: I’ll be your host, apparently

9:05	Comment From Guest ON TIME!?

9:05	Jeff Sullivan: Foolish guest

9:06	Comment From Brian Which CLE pitcher do you see most exceeding expectations?

9:06	Jeff Sullivan: Well, what are the expectations? I like Carrasco, but lots of people like Carrasco. I like Salazar, but lots of people like Salazar. I’m interested in Tomlin, but I don’t think he’s going to start very much

9:07	Comment From Brian Other than Stroman and Carasco who is you best pitching sleeper for 2015?

9:07	Jeff Sullivan: I don’t really think in terms of sleepers. And are Stroman and Carrasco really “sleepers” in any sense? Last year they were really good

9:07	Jeff Sullivan: But, hell, let me give this a whirl

9:07	Jeff Sullivan: Eovaldi? I like him working with McCann and Rothschild

9:08	Jeff Sullivan: People will probably be scared by his transition to a little ballpark

9:08	Comment From Harry Porter and the Voldemalts Who is your favorite comp on the player projections? I am always enamored by them…

9:08	Jeff Sullivan: Burt Reynolds/Tom Skerritt

9:08	Comment From Brian Felix or Kershaw next 3 years?

9:08	Jeff Sullivan: Oh, what the hell, I’m doing it. Felix!

9:08	Comment From Guest How in demand is Ron Washington? You see him back at the A’s in some capacity?

9:09	Jeff Sullivan: Apparently he is not in demand. I can see him getting another baseball job down the line, but not a prominent one

9:09	Comment From Brian A rod or Beltre in 3 years?

9:09	Jeff Sullivan: Is this Beltre vs. A-Rod, or Beltre vs. a rod?

9:09	Jeff Sullivan: Beltre in both

9:09	Comment From Walt The Reds will make the playoffs if…?

9:10	Jeff Sullivan: Votto’s really good, Bruce is really good, Hamilton is better, Cueto stays healthy, Bailey stays healthy, Chapman stays healthy, DeSclafani holds his own…

9:10	Comment From Oscar As resident framing expert, do you have a sense for where most of the pitches that turn into strikes are? Is it more likely high, low, what?

9:10	Jeff Sullivan: Low, and frequently low and away

9:11	Jeff Sullivan: Some catchers are better up than down, but the majority of the good framers excel around the knees

9:12	Jeff Sullivan: 1 minute please!

9:12	Comment From mtsw What things, if any, are worth paying attention to when reading about your favorite team’s spring training?

9:13	Jeff Sullivan: Well, most generally, read about whatever brings you pleasure. If you are a person who likes the spring-training fluff, consume all the spring-training fluff. It’s nice to have the routine of baseball back

9:13	Jeff Sullivan: But if you’re looking for meaningful indicators, it’s all about the new pitches and the mechanical tweaks. Sometimes you can see stuff in the occasional PITCHf/x. For hitters, maybe a focus on bunting, or a new-found ability to hit the other way

9:14	Jeff Sullivan: Example I go back to is Michael Saunders a few years ago — all of a sudden, in ST, he was showing some power to left-center field that he didn’t previously have. That was promising!

9:14	Comment From John i can never remember, but you are not in nc you are in washington?

9:14	Jeff Sullivan: Portland, OR

9:14	Comment From Kris Surprised Moncada went for so little? (Compared to what most were expecting)

9:15	Jeff Sullivan: I think he was within the range of expectations. Obviously undershot the $40m guess, but I don’t think people were giving enough consideration to the fact that this money had to be paid almost immediately. That’s just…a huge amount of money for a teenager.

9:15	Comment From Maxamuz My roommate sucks.

9:15	Jeff Sullivan: I hope you’re not married

9:16	Comment From Eyebrows Your thoughts on the 2015 seasons of some young AL East pitchers: Gausman and Hutchison

9:16	Jeff Sullivan: I think Hutchison has a better year, and Gausman has a better career.

9:16	Comment From Kris you just answered a fantasy question, how do you feel

9:16	Jeff Sullivan: I have fun

9:17	Comment From lol If Barry Zito somehow, somehow, somehow, starts throwing 90 MPH FB again, is he still a useful pitcher for the A’s? Have his other pitches degraded?

9:17	Jeff Sullivan: Barry Zito at 90 is a major-league pitcher. That would be almost literally turning back the clock a full decade. Funny thing about his last few years in Oakland — he wasn’t actually that good. He was fine. He could be fine again, assuming the miracle premise

9:18	Comment From Brian Best Cuban not named Abreu or Puig?

9:18	Jeff Sullivan: Chapman’s pretty amazing, don’t you think?

9:19	Comment From What are your expectations for Danny Duffy this year? What are your expectations for Danny Duffy this year?

9:19	Jeff Sullivan: Ehhh. He’ll be okay. Defense will be big for the ERA.

9:20	Comment From Marco Polo Who gets the M’s last rotation spot? are you higher on Elias than Walker?

9:20	Jeff Sullivan: I think Elias gets it, but it’s more like 65/35 than 90/10. Erasmo Ramirez has some opportunity just because he’s out of options. If the M’s were to sign Chris Young this week, he’d get enough time in camp to win that spot instead.

9:21	Jeff Sullivan: Not that I think Young is on the radar, but as long as he’s out there, the M’s know what he is

9:21	Comment From Guest Do you ever see Jason Kipnis returning to his production in the 2012-13 seasons, or is he damaged goods?

9:21	Jeff Sullivan: No reason he can’t do 2012 again. 2013 could likely stand as a career year

9:23	Comment From Kris is bryce harper injury prone in the same vein that troy tulowitzki is injury prone?

9:23	Jeff Sullivan: I’m really careful with the injury-prone label, and with Harper, a lot of the issues have been more fluky than chronic. I know you could say they’re side effects of his style of play, but I think he’s more durable than his reputation would suggest.

9:24	Comment From mtsw Other than some outliers on each end (Cubs, Phillies) is most of ESPN’s “analytics rankings” list just a ranking of how willing various front offices are to reveal details of their analytics department to the press? More generally, what did you think of these rankings?

9:25	Jeff Sullivan: I only skimmed them, and I don’t know shit about what goes on in other sports. Don’t particularly care for rankings that try to rank the essentially unknowable, and you can be only so thorough when you’re arranging something like 122 different teams.

9:26

Jeff Sullivan: Every single baseball team makes some use of analytics. But, then, what does that even mean? Lines get blurry. One should be more concerned about front offices that are more or less open-minded. There are better front offices than others, and I think we have pretty good ideas of which those are

9:27	Jeff Sullivan: Did anything about the rankings really surprise you? I think they fit the perceptions. That’s not necessarily a good thing, either.

9:27	Comment From Brian Which team is most likely to win a WS in the next 10 years?

9:27	Jeff Sullivan: The Dodgers. They’ve got everything.

9:27	Comment From Marco Polo Why is Arod showing up early in Tampa a big deal, sis it just because its the Yankees and Ny media?

9:27	Jeff Sullivan: It’s not a big deal

9:28	Comment From Nate Who do you like more moving forward? Chris Davis? or Adrian Gonzalez?

9:28	Jeff Sullivan: Gonzalez. Good luck to your fantasy team!

9:28	Comment From Charkip Most surprising player this year to have a 5+ WAR?

9:29	Jeff Sullivan: Justin Verlander?

9:29	Jeff Sullivan: Would that be a surprise?

9:31	Comment From Jeff 2.0 What are your expectations on Jose Iglesias production this year?

9:31	Jeff Sullivan: It’s probably best not to expect much of anything

9:31	Jeff Sullivan: Offensively, I mean.

9:32	Jeff Sullivan: Hope for 550 plate appearances. If he does that, he’s done enough

9:32	Comment From Ben Ben Cherington basically said this morning that Castillo is going to start the year at the major league level. Any harm in Betts starting in AAA this year?

9:32	Jeff Sullivan: The harm would be that the big-league team would be worse. I know the situation is crowded, but there’s room for four regular outfielders here.

9:32	Comment From JL Opening Day 2018, what position is Moncada playing for the Red Sox?

9:32	Jeff Sullivan: Third

9:33	Comment From Shawn Mayweather or Pacquiao?

9:33	Jeff Sullivan: Whichever one is a nicer person

9:33	Comment From Vslyke Is there any precedent for a player collapsing as bad as Melvin Upton Jr. and then regaining his form later? I’m still holding out some hope for a significant rebound and am wondering how insane that is.

9:34	Jeff Sullivan: It’s not the same thing, exactly, but after Jeff Cirillo bottomed out, he came back and hit decently over a couple years with the Brewers

9:35	Comment From Guest any chance Montero gets any time behind the dish this seas?

9:35	Jeff Sullivan: You mean Jesus Montero?

9:35	Jeff Sullivan: Literally Jesus Montero?

9:36	Jeff Sullivan: Montero lost weight, he didn’t become a completely different person

9:37	Comment From neal why is it that people see moncada’s signing bonus and their first reaction is “we need to stop kids from getting paid that much” rather than “american kids who sign deserve to be getting paid more”

9:37	Jeff Sullivan: There are people who see it both ways, but there are more people who just think it’s silly that sports players get paid tens of millions of dollars to play a game

9:37	Comment From RK Any of the team over/unders stand out to you?

9:37	Jeff Sullivan: If anything I’d say bet the under on the Phillies because it will be a season of shedding

9:38	Jeff Sullivan: I don’t know where they put the line, but it’s too high

9:38	Comment From Brian Who is the best all around player in the modern ( post integration game)?

9:38	Jeff Sullivan: Mike Trout, because he’s the best player now, and players are always improving decade over decade

9:38	Comment From Charkip Does the Moncada signing make Pedoria or Betts trade targets in the next year or two?

9:38	Jeff Sullivan: No

9:39	Comment From Brian What one thing do you wish you had never ever written?

9:40	Jeff Sullivan: A letter to a girl I liked in high school

9:40	Comment From Jeet Why do people hate ARod so much over someone like Manny or Petite? Their transgressions are similar….is it the hot models?

9:41	Jeff Sullivan: Probably the uncanny-valley thing. Alex Rodriguez is almost a recognizable person, and that creeps people the hell out.

9:42	Comment From Matt OldePunks Does lucroy replicate last year and cement himself as the best hittinig catcher in baseball or does that knee wreck him before he started?

9:42	Jeff Sullivan: How did Twitter not alert me to Buster Posey’s retirement

9:42	Comment From Matt How can baseball better deal with the problem of low income kids getting into baseball despite it being cost prohibitive?

9:43	Jeff Sullivan: Too big a question for a chat. Make it less cost-prohibitive.

9:43	Comment From David Is it possible to calculate projected K% and BB% from ZiPS or Steamer?

9:43	Jeff Sullivan: Yes?

9:43	Comment From Jeet Don’t know if you are a fantasy guy but if you were punting something (because 260$ does not cover everything) which category would you punt from R,HR,RBI,SB,OBP,K,SV,QS,ERA and WHIP

9:43	Jeff Sullivan: I punt all the categories and watch regular baseball

9:44	Comment From Darth Stout What is Tanner Roark’s role in 2015?

9:44	Jeff Sullivan: Long reliever and sixth starter. Chances are, they’ll need him to start

9:44	Comment From El Chorizo If Hultzen is healthy do you speed him to the majors? It seems likely that there are only so many pitches in that shoulder.

9:44	Jeff Sullivan: What does that even mean?

9:45	Jeff Sullivan: Hultzen threw a total of zero innings last season. 36 the season before. You take your damn time. For 2015 he ought to be a non-factor.

9:46	Comment From Matt Who do you think gets edged out among the O’s outfielders? Seems like they have one too many with Jones, Pearce, Snider, De Aza, Lough, and Delmon Young (who they still consider an outfielder).

9:46	Jeff Sullivan: If it’s anyone, it’s probably Lough

9:46	Jeff Sullivan: I do not think they consider Delmon Young an outfielder

9:47	Comment From Ringtone Composer Is it correct to say that, as a general matter, having a good changeup makes pitchers more effective against opposite-handed batters? (And sliders increase effectiveness against same-handed batters?)

9:47	Jeff Sullivan: Yeah, that’s the general rule. Changeups reduce platoon splits. Sinker/slider guys have mostly big platoon splits.

9:47	Comment From Shawn Do you like Matt Cain to bounceback this year?

9:47	Jeff Sullivan: He’ll be good

9:48	Comment From Tom If Michael Wacha is healthy and regains the feel of his changeup, would that put the Cardinals on the level of the Dodgers and Nationals?

9:48	Jeff Sullivan: Not quite

9:48	Comment From Taveras Ghost Who’s starting in the STL outfield other than Heymaker

9:48	Jeff Sullivan: Jay and Holliday, with Bourjos roving

9:49	Comment From When Ivan Nova gets healthy, where will he fit into the Yankees rotation? When Ivan Nova gets healthy, where will he fit into the Yankees rotation?

9:49	Jeff Sullivan: Their current fifth starter is Chris Capuano

9:49	Comment From Charkip Why is no one talking about Brandon McCarthy? In my opinion, he can make the Dodgers’ season.

9:49	Jeff Sullivan: There are a lot of players to talk about and the Dodgers have several more interesting starting pitchers. I think McCarthy receives proportional attention

9:50	Comment From STiVo On a recent TV program, Brian Kenny kept referring to pitch framing as “revealing strikes,” i.e., not getting balls to be called strikes. This is only part of framing, right? Don’t the good framers get pitches out of the strike zone to be called strikes?

9:50	Jeff Sullivan: Good framers get strikes, period. More strikes in the zone, more strikes out of the zone. There’s no one who’s good at one and bad at the other, because that wouldn’t make sense — it’s the same mechanism

9:50	Comment From Catoblepas Have you ever been scooped by a Community blog post? As in, you’re writing a piece, and someone submits a very similar piece.

9:51	Jeff Sullivan: Hasn’t happened, because I write my pieces in one sitting and I leave the Community editing for the end of the day.

9:51	Comment From Dan Who are your favorite baseball writers to read?

9:51	Jeff Sullivan: Leaving aside FG, it’s Miller, Lindbergh, and Brisbee. Original, I know

9:52	Comment From Jed Do you think the Mariners could trade for Hamels with a Walker/Peterson/other minor prospects package? I don’t think it would happen, but it’s better to think about that than paying attention to Spring Training.

9:52	Jeff Sullivan: Yes, the Phillies would do that, but no, the Mariners probably would not do that. Nor do the Mariners have the payroll flexibility

9:53	Comment From Guest Given the talent level and the fact that they were both playing in the same league in Cuba at high levels, Is it surprising that Moncada got less than Tomas?

9:53	Jeff Sullivan: The actual cost to the teams is very similar, and Tomas can help right away

9:53	Comment From Matt What do you say to fans who think fielding independent stats are not important and don’t mean anything?

9:54

Jeff Sullivan: I don’t encounter those fans very often, but I don’t go around trying to change peoples’ minds about how they enjoy following baseball. If baseball brings you pleasure, good, that’s all that matters. Now, in an argument, I’ll have a lesser tolerance for bad analysis, but I don’t get into baseball arguments

9:55	Comment From Catoblepas The plan for the Dodgers has to be to sign newly-awesome Cuban pitcher Alvarez, and a bunch of other guys this next July 2 period, right? They weren’t letting themselves get outbid for Moncada (at only $63m) unless they had a plan, presumably?

9:55	Jeff Sullivan: Yeah, now they’ll have less competition for a couple years. But there will still be competition, including (but not limited to) the Phillies, so it’s not like the Dodgers will get exactly what they want

9:56	Comment From Guest Given the NHL’s new emphasis on public advanced stats, do think baseball will ever endorse them or does it realize they are safe in a strong public baseball community? Will this help force their hand with Statcast?

9:56	Jeff Sullivan: I don’t think MLB cares what the NHL does. They’ll do with Statcast whatever they’ve intended to do with Statcast. Teams don’t even know what MLB intends to do with Statcast

9:57	Comment From Catoblepas Who’s the first free agent pitcher signed when someone’s elbow falls off in March? Chris Young just seems so reasonable to me, it’s hard to see why no one signed him for pocket change

9:57	Jeff Sullivan: There’s basically no one left. It’s Chris Young and Kevin Correia and minor-league guys. Trades are likely, as are waiver pickups

9:57	Comment From JL Why did the Sox trade Lackey? If it was an option, wouldn’t they undo that deal today in a heartbeat?

9:58	Jeff Sullivan: They like Kelly, and they think Craig is resolvable

9:58	Jeff Sullivan: There was also some uncertainty about Lackey actually playing for the minimum this season

9:58	Comment From JL Are you going to Sloan? Have you ever been?

9:58	Jeff Sullivan: No, and I’ve never been, but FG will be well-represented

9:58	Comment From Brian Who on the Fangraphs staff is the worst driver?

9:59	Jeff Sullivan: I haven’t driven with everyone but I’m just going to guess it’s Eno

9:59	Comment From mtsw Orioles 2015 strategy seems to be “bring in 10 new, replacement-level guys, hope 3 randomly turn out to be much better than expected (a la 2014 Steve Pearce) and can fill the 3-4 roster holes we have.” Do you see this working out for them?