Jeff Sullivan FanGraphs Chat — 4/10/15

April 10, 2015

9:05	Jeff Sullivan: Hello friends

9:05	Jeff Sullivan: Welcome to live baseball chat. I’ll be your host, Jeff Sullivan

9:05	Jeff Sullivan: You might have noticed that, this week, there has been baseball

9:05	Comment From Pale Hose #Harveyporn

9:05	Jeff Sullivan: Nice to have it back

9:06	Jeff Sullivan: I don’t know if we sufficiently appreciated what he did in 2013. Go back and look at that again!

9:06	Comment From Harry Porter and the Voldemalts I love the constitution as much as the next person, but I’m never too fond of people who think a document less than 10 pages long, written solely by white men in a time when people still thought vampires existed, should be the sole basis for our country.

9:06	Jeff Sullivan: I’ve never had a good grasp on politics, and this is one of the reasons that I continue to keep my distance. I don’t think I’ll ever understand it, because all of it is silly.

9:07	Comment From Bill Do think Castro will stick as the Jays closer?

9:07	Jeff Sullivan: no

9:07	Comment From Jaack How long could Mat Latos maintain a 94.50 era before teams stop calling?

9:07	Jeff Sullivan: two more starts of this and I think he gets obligatory season-ending surgery on something

9:07	Comment From Brian Rank: Hutchison, Odorizzi, Greene, McCallister, Bauer, Pomeranz

9:07	Jeff Sullivan: Today’s reminder that I don’t do fantasy questions, nor should you want me to

9:07	Comment From Graham What do you think is going on with Brian Dozier? Think he’ll be alright or was last season an aberation?

9:08	Jeff Sullivan: You can probably guess the answer, but, I think he’ll be all right. In that, I think he’ll be a mostly helpful player, but he does have a very specific batting approach that might be pretty easy for good pitchers to exploit. The Tigers just threw three pretty good pitchers

9:09	Jeff Sullivan: Might not be a worse opposite-field hitter than Brian Dozier. Pitch him away and I don’t really know what he can do about it

9:09	Comment From Vslyke Maybin is the better option for the Braves in CF, right?

9:09	Jeff Sullivan: I don’t even know their other options, but, yes

9:09	Comment From Guest With out trying to pry too much but roughly how much did your trip cost?

9:10	Jeff Sullivan: A lot less than you’d think. Obviously there’s not much you can do about having to take a bunch of flights and buses, but it’s surprisingly affordable to travel when you stay in hostels and tents and just backpack around everywhere

9:10	Comment From Brian Expectations for Snider ROS?

9:10	Jeff Sullivan: You wouldn’t even believe how unremarkable I think he’s going to continue to be

9:10	Jeff Sullivan: Boy, you talk about your unremarkable players. Travis Snider is up there

9:11	Comment From Brian Are Melky and Matt Adams must own in a league where 216-240 players are owned?

9:11	Jeff Sullivan: This is one reason I don’t do fantasy questions. I completely, genuinely don’t know the answer to this, and it’s probably an easy question

9:11	Comment From Greenseer A’s first week has been erratic. Is Reddick’s return going to be significant?

9:12

Jeff Sullivan: They didn’t want to have to pick up Cody Ross. You don’t want to be down two outfielders on opening day, no matter how much depth you’ve acquired. Reddick will obviously help, but he’ll also obviously get hurt again at some point, and hopefully that injury doesn’t overlap with another injury to Crisp

9:12	Comment From Guest Oh my god the Mariners are 1-2 time to panic?

9:13	Jeff Sullivan: Last year in the opening series they completely obliterated the Angels on the Angels’ own turf and all the Angels did from there was win 98 games

9:13	Comment From greinkes fip does anyone know if theres baseball next week. also how about the week after that

9:13	Jeff Sullivan: let me check

9:13	Jeff Sullivan: oh wow

9:13	Jeff Sullivan: yes! it really does stretch on. you should check this out

9:13	Comment From Barry Jeff who is your favorite baseballer active today and how do you think he’ll do this year?

9:14	Jeff Sullivan: Felix Hernandez, Cy god-damned Young

9:14	Comment From mtsw April overreactions should be avoided, but we can safely conclude the Twins suck, right?

9:14	Jeff Sullivan: I think we concluded this in January

9:14	Jeff Sullivan: I don’t think they’ll like Astros-level suck, but we’ve known for a while they’d be bad. Now they’re down a decent starter for half the year, and Nolasco for all we know might be toast

9:15	Comment From Northsider Can Lester continue to be a productive SP if he doesn’t attempt a pickoff to first? I could just imagine someone like Billy Hamilton running circles (well diamonds) around him.

9:16

Jeff Sullivan: Last season, Jon Lester was one stolen-base run below average. He had a 2.46 ERA. Teams knew he didn’t throw over, and still, he was difficult to exploit. Now, it’s been another year since then, and teams are aware of his borderline yips, so it’s definitely a thing. But as a runner, you never know when, maybe, he’s figured it out. As a lefty, he’s staring right at you. That’s a very, very powerful deterrent, even if you dont’ think he’ll ever make a move

9:17	Jeff Sullivan: You just don’t know if today’s the day. This is a disadvantage for Lester, but good pitchers have been run all over before. They’ve just about all been righties. He’ll work on it, and there will be bad games, and there will be great ones

9:17	Comment From Jeff Have the Mets actually been using their most efficient lineup? They’ve gotten a lot of criticism, but it looks pretty good!

9:18	Jeff Sullivan: I don’t see anything too objectionable. I also generally don’t complain about lineup order, but as time passes you could see d’Arnaud move up. I can’t believe we’ve gotten here but I actually kind of like this year’s Mets

9:18	Comment From Eric How worried should I be about Gattis’s double Sombrero?

9:19	Jeff Sullivan: He’s always struck out, and he just faced the Cleveland Indians

9:20	Comment From Ross G Let’s say a player never once walked or put a ball into play. How many pitches per at-bat would he have to take to become a replacement level player? 15? 20? 25?

9:20	Jeff Sullivan: Well, by our numbers, he’d never become a replacement-level player, because we don’t account for P/PA

9:21

Jeff Sullivan: And it’s not clear that we should, in this era of bullpens being amazing. You don’t really want to rush to knock the starter out. But if you had a guy having 40-pitch plate appearances after which he always struck out…I mean, that would be the worst thing to watch in the world, but that would be a weapon of sorts

9:21	Comment From Guest Any player performances so far sizeably changed your expectations for 2015?

9:22	Jeff Sullivan: I don’t know about sizably, but Jered Weaver’s velocity seems like it was extremely low. And Mike Moustakas has my attention for his hitting up the middle and the other way. Mat Latos didn’t show any velocity recovery, so that looks like a problem

9:22	Comment From Yo momma Do you think Rodon gets the call in April? In May?

9:22	Jeff Sullivan: May, maybe

9:23	Comment From Dave Teams are now entirely willing to blow past the restrictions on international FAs. The restrictions for going over slot for the Rule 4 draft are remarkably similar, why hasn’t any team yet tried to go for broke once every three years?

9:23	Jeff Sullivan: It’s worse to punt a draft than it is to punt an international signing period

9:24	Comment From Matt What are your thoughts on Jake Lamb? Platoon or everyday?

9:24	Jeff Sullivan: Semi-regular on a good team

9:25	Comment From Jose I am a non-white man, in a non USA country, with a constitution written in the last century and would kill for your constitution.

9:25	Jeff Sullivan: See? It’s silliness everywhere! The whole world is silly.

9:25	Comment From Ryan Do you find it hard to do your job when Mariner “fans” are declaring the season over after one series?

9:26	Jeff Sullivan: I’m not exposed to those people during my workday, and also, my job is about baseball, and not the Mariners, so that helps.

9:27	Jeff Sullivan: I can’t tell you how beneficial it is to identify sources of negativity in your life and then reduce your exposure to them. If you have something in your life that’s just a constant drain, and it’s avoidable, you should avoid it.

9:27	Comment From Mooking for Love Is 2015 the year Moose Tacos finally figures out how to baseball?

9:27	Jeff Sullivan: I think he’s at least finally figured out that he couldn’t keep trying to do the same baseball

9:27	Comment From Guest How often will Arod get tested if he kills it this yr?

9:28	Jeff Sullivan: I’m full-blown rooting to find out. A storyline I might fall in love with: Tanaka goes down for the year, the Yankees look like a disaster, and their season is saved by a red-hot, MVP-level Alex Rodriguez

9:28	Comment From Phillies113 So you don’t do fantasy questions about players. Fair enough. Do you have fantasies ABOUT players, though?

9:29	Jeff Sullivan: Every so often I fantasize that Mike Zunino walked

9:29	Jeff Sullivan: A better answer would be that I really do wish Aroldis Chapman would throw more changeups, and Craig Kimbrel would throw any changeups

9:30	Comment From Snid How much does moving up in the batting order does it help Brandon Crawford? Is his shift to FB rather than GB real?

9:31

Jeff Sullivan: That kind of thing doesn’t happen by accident. You don’t go from 32% fly balls to 42% fly balls year-to-year without making a conscious change to your game. Crawford also introduced a bit more swing-and-miss, which is usually the trade-off. He’s growing into some power — the problem here is that he doesn’t play in a ballpark environment conducive to putting the ball in the air more. But he’s not the no-stick shortstop he looked like he might be

9:33	Jeff Sullivan: Fun fact. Crawford, career, home: 7 dingers. Crawford, career, road: 20 dingers

9:34	Comment From Bruce Do you think anything youve written has ever had an actual impact on a managers decision, or a players mechanics, pitch selection, etc.

9:34	Jeff Sullivan: One time I was specifically approached by a player for help, but the player was bad and had exhausted just about all his options. So there wasn’t really any saving him

9:35	Jeff Sullivan: I don’t think I’ve had direct influence. Maybe I’ve made some minor contribution to influence, but I don’t pretend to believe I’m the only guy who’s aware of certain stuff. It’s a big competitive industry

9:35	Comment From The Hamburglar How about them Senators. 1 point away from the playoffs.

9:36	Jeff Sullivan: I might be more nervous now than I was 24 hours ago. It’s been a miracle

9:36	Comment From Graham How do you see the Dodgers closing situation working out until Kenley returns?

9:36	Jeff Sullivan: Competently

9:37	Comment From Pork+Value How many times do the Houston Astros get no hit this year?

9:37	Jeff Sullivan: Once

9:37	Jeff Sullivan: I’ll try a poll

9:38	Comment From Jaack Is it possible to have opinions on Zach Duke as a baseball player?

9:38	Jeff Sullivan: Hell yeah it is now! He made big changes to his delivery and last year he turned himself into 90% of Andrew Miller. He became interesting, and valuable

9:39	Jeff Sullivan: I liked that pick-up even before it was clear the White Sox were going to try to contend

9:39	Comment From JLew Do you think Moore returns to Ace form for the Rays this year?

9:39	Jeff Sullivan: Returns?

9:39	Jeff Sullivan: Moore has never shown ace form in the majors

9:39	Jeff Sullivan: Now he’ll be coming back from major surgery.

9:39	Comment From The Hamburglar Also, its a strange coincidence that the coach of your favorite team and boss are both named dave cameron

9:40	Jeff Sullivan: And Dave Cameron the hockey coach sometimes likes to speak in baseball terminology

9:41	Comment From mtsw Who is the least remarkable player in MLB history?

9:41	Jeff Sullivan: Tough one. It’s unfair to choose a role player. I think it has to be someone who played regularly

9:42	Jeff Sullivan: Bill Spiers

9:42	Comment From Greenseer A’s have a lot of faith in Stephen Vogt, right? With so little catching depth, could there be some kind of move?

9:42	Jeff Sullivan: I think they also like Josh Phegley enough

9:44	Comment From SmartFood Thoughts on how Devon Travis will fare as pitchers see more and more of him?

9:45

Jeff Sullivan: I think by the end it’ll be hard for him to avoid three times as many strikeouts as walks, at least as a rookie. And while there’s power there, there’s not so much that he’ll scare pitchers out of the strike zone. But overall, I like him fine as a roughly average player, and I’m glad the Blue Jays gave him this job. He should end up enough of a contributor that no one sees him as a problem

9:45	Comment From Brian So you don’t think Snider can breakout at age 27? He was a fairly big prospect.

9:46	Jeff Sullivan: It’s not a matter of can or can’t. Sure, he can do anything. He was a big-time prospect in the winter of 2008-09. He’s coming up on 2,000 plate appearances.

9:46	Comment From Don Does Carlos Martinez stick in the rotation all year? Innings limit?

9:46	Jeff Sullivan: I’m sure they’d love to have the opportunity to let Jaime Garcia take some of his starts

9:46	Jeff Sullivan: He’s going to be monitored very carefully

9:47	Comment From Randall Stevens Do the Pirates make an effort to get Kang in the lineup sooner rather than later because of his contract? And, if so, do they attempt to move Mercer?

9:48

Jeff Sullivan: I don’t think his contract changes anything. It’s guaranteed, it’s multi-year, and it’s pretty small. The Pirates have accumulated a lot of depth and over time you’ll see playing time get distributed more evenly. Chances are, performance will ultimately dictate who does what. Lots of people have expressed some Mercer skepticism

9:48	Comment From Guest Was Pagan being a dickhead when he threw his gum at Norris glove?

9:48	Jeff Sullivan: It’s not the biggest dickhead move in the world, but non-dickheads don’t do things like that

9:49

Jeff Sullivan: It’s funny the stupid little things that lead to bigger confrontations. It’s possible that, one day, a fastball will buzz behind Matt Kemp’s head, because the Padres might throw at Angel Pagan, because Angel Pagan once flipped a piece of gum kind of toward Derek Norris, when Norris was covered in protective gear

9:49	Jeff Sullivan: Baseball is so stupid

9:50	Comment From _David _ What could be the earliest sign of Mike Zunino making even a little progress? Contact %, bb%?

9:50	Jeff Sullivan: Not having ten times as many strikeouts as walks

9:50	Jeff Sullivan: Watch the O-Swing%. Zunino should not be hovering around 40%

9:50	Comment From Art Vandelay Are all these Cleveland pitcher Ks a product of the Astros? Or is this going to be a regular occurrence?

9:51	Jeff Sullivan: Didn’t last year’s Indians just have the highest team strikeout rate of all time? If they didn’t, they were super close. It was obviously a combination of things — the Astros strike out a lot, and the Indians strike out a lot. Their staff is excellent

9:51	Comment From Chris They’ll be back in a few weeks, but how many games would a Nats team without Span, Rendon or Werth all season win?

9:52	Jeff Sullivan: 85? Their position-player depth really sucks. They’re starting literally Dan Uggla

9:52	Comment From Andrew So how long until we can put the Rickie Weeks lead-off DH era behind us?

9:52	Jeff Sullivan: Check out what happened last year: http://www.baseball-referen…

9:53	Jeff Sullivan: Weeks is a god-damn blessing compared to that

9:53	Comment From JLew What happened to Gallardo? I thought Texas stole him at first … but I’m not so sure now

9:53	Jeff Sullivan: He’s been changing for a while. He’s not the strikeout guy he used to be.

9:53	Comment From Al Anything in particular bother you about fantasy baseball? For me it’s the reactions to injured players. I enjoy fantasy baseball a lot but I appreciate forums (like this chat) that keep it about real-actual- baseball. So thanks

9:54	Jeff Sullivan: Nothing bothers me about it, although the injury thing is legitimate — I just don’t play it anymore, and I figure the majority of people in a chat don’t care to read about other people’s very team-specific fantasy questions

9:54	Comment From Dave The Mets taking 2 of 3 from the Nats – more important for the Mets or more ominous for the Nats?

9:54	Jeff Sullivan: More important for the Mets. Nats aren’t at full strength. Mets gained a game and got to see Harvey go nuts

9:54	Comment From Bret Which surprising early season performance are you most comfortable blowing out of proportion?

9:54	Jeff Sullivan: The Twins will lose 120 games!

9:55	Comment From _David _ If we were to design a version of Brad Miller where all skills are maximized and completely translate to performance, what would be the biggest limitation…what is he least good at and probably won’t be able to improve much?

9:55	Jeff Sullivan: hitting lefties, probably

9:56	Comment From Jose Is Neil Walker + OF defense and speed the reasonable expectation for Mookie?

9:57	Jeff Sullivan: I’m not convinced Betts ever hits 23 homers. His discipline numbers, meanwhile, should be better

9:57	Comment From Pork+Value Even if he goes 20/20, there’s no way Jason Heyward gets $200 million, is there?

9:57	Jeff Sullivan: Sure there is. Lots of ways

9:57	Jeff Sullivan: This is an era where Rick Porcello is a $20m/year player, and Jason Heyward doesn’t turn 26 until August

9:58	Comment From Bill Travis Snider caddied for Bill Gates while in High School. Do you still think he’s unremarkable?

9:58	Jeff Sullivan: Got me there!

9:58	Comment From Also Dan Brandon Crawford is going to start the All Star game this year. True or False?

9:58	Jeff Sullivan: Probably won’t deserve to, but those people vote like crazy

9:58	Comment From Crazy Sox Fan Should the Red Sox consider trading Pedroia if Castillo/Betts(move to 2B/Vic/Craig are all hitting well? What would the return be like?

9:58	Jeff Sullivan: Pedroia will never go anywhere. Red Sox for life

9:59	Comment From Dave Your first place Atlanta Braves!

9:59	Jeff Sullivan: The current NL division leaders, just like we all predicted: Braves, Reds, and Rockies

9:59	Comment From Sean The narrative is the Dbacks “don’t know what they’re doing” yet, their starting lineup is Goldschmidt, Owings, Ahmed, Lamb, Peralta/Inciarte, Pollock, Trumbo. They cut the crap and are playing their talented youth. Do you think the narrative is overreacting?