Jeff Sullivan FanGraphs Chat — 4/1/14

9:11	Jeff Sullivan: Hey guys!

9:11	Jeff Sullivan: Shut up!

9:12	Jeff Sullivan: I chatted three and a half damn hours yesterday. You take what you get and you like it.

9:12	Jeff Sullivan: Let’s talk about the baseballs!

9:12	Comment From Guest Going to be a long season for Toronto?

9:13	Jeff Sullivan: Going to be a long season everywhere! 162 games is a whole lot of games and they usually don’t play more than one in a day

9:13	Comment From jocephus Bobby Parnell has been diagnosed with a partial tear of the medial collateral ligament in his right elbow.

9:13	Jeff Sullivan: All of a sudden Jose Valverde is relevant again. How does this keep happening

9:14	Jeff Sullivan: Explains why Parnell was throwing like 92-94

9:14	Jeff Sullivan: Maybe now people will talk a little less about the 3-2 pitch d’Arnaud didn’t frame right

9:14	Comment From Jake The Yankees seem to have been ahead of the curve on pitch framing with Martin, Cervelli, JR Murphy, Stewart and company. Is that part of why they seem to consistently over perform their WAR and, to a lesser extent, pythag expected wins? In 2013: 10.4 War, 79 Pythag Wins, 85 wins.

9:15	Jeff Sullivan: Framing wouldn’t be a “hidden” skill like that

9:15	Jeff Sullivan: Framing would contribute directly to walks, strikeouts, and home runs, so it would show up in the regular statistics

9:15	Comment From Kimball Hi! Apologies in advance, going to give into my urge to post way too many Mariners-related questions today. Only game I saw yesterday.

9:15	Jeff Sullivan: We’ll see if I also post way too many Mariners-related answers!

9:16	Comment From vliet Jeff – I’m getting pitcher + pitcher /position offers for Cano. What type of players should I expect in return? Thks!

9:16	Jeff Sullivan: Real good ones

9:16	Comment From JJ Does Drew sign before the draft?

9:16	Jeff Sullivan: I think he does. Could see something soon as a team gets desperate and tries to stave off falling out of the race too quickly

9:17	Jeff Sullivan: But I’ve obviously been wrong about this the whole time so far given that he’s still out there sitting at home doing nothing and it’s the first day of April

9:17	Comment From juan pierres mustache it’s Valverde time! so excited except for the part where bobby parnell got hurt and he seems like a decent dude most likely

9:18	Jeff Sullivan: Worst thing about being a closer is if you’re ineffective people start to look at you as a bad person on top of being a bad pitcher. They just look for reasons to hate you

9:18	Comment From gregory Which pitcher impressed you most on opening day?

9:18	Comment From Guest You were right, always pick Felix

9:19	Comment From KJ Does the MLB want me to actually get work done every tuesday afternoon? Why are there never day games?

9:19	Jeff Sullivan: The dearth of more consistent day games is one of the great modern travesties. Wonderful for the economy, but, travesty

9:20	Comment From GSon Tommy Hunter.. straight hard fastball.. Do you see him lasting as the O’s closer?

9:20	Jeff Sullivan: I do, but I don’t see him going along without taking some lumps

9:20	Jeff Sullivan: Probably a good-sized handful of lumps

9:21	Comment From Kimball Most negative sign from the Mariners’ game: Zunino looking mostly clueless hitting or the various coaching decisions (lineup construction, baserunning)?

9:21	Jeff Sullivan: Dustin Ackley’s disgusting awful beard

9:21	Comment From Joe Might the Blue Jays sign Drew now that Reyes is on the DL?

9:21	Jeff Sullivan: I guarantee you they’re at least talking about it internally today

9:22	Comment From Alex If you were a vulcanologist (sic), do you think you’d need therapy?

9:22	Jeff Sullivan: Not to any greater extent than I do now

9:22	Comment From Eddie Cubs going to be the lowest scoring team in MLB this season?

9:23	Jeff Sullivan: we have them projected third-lowest, so, very possibly http://www.fangraphs.com/de…

9:23

Comment From atoms
In light of all the closer shuffling over the past couple of days, it occurred to me just how dumb it is that we desperately comb the waiver wire for guys like Valverde on the off chance they might pick up some saves. Can’t the fantasy community come up with a better stat for reliever value? I’d rather find the best, most high performing relievers than have to pretend to care about which guys some manager thinks should get the “closer” tag. Saves are a dumb stat anyway.

9:23	Jeff Sullivan: I too would like for fantasy baseball to behave more like real baseball because then maybe people would be more inclined to just ask about real-baseball questions!

9:23	Comment From Guest Who would you rather have playing a corner OF spot Carp or Ackley?

9:24	Jeff Sullivan: Ackley

9:24	Comment From Will Evan Reed was the hardest throwing reliever from yesterday, throwing even harder than Trevor Rosenthal. Who is this guy and is he good?

9:24	Jeff Sullivan: 28-year-old ~rookie and sadly no not really

9:25	Jeff Sullivan: Has only half-decent reliever numbers in triple-A. Unlikely to improve against big-league competition

9:25	Comment From Matt What do you think will happen to Starlin Castro when Baez is eventually called up? Who will play SS for the Cubs?

9:25	Jeff Sullivan: Castro

9:26	Comment From The Dude So who’s infield is better in the Yanks-Stros tonight?

9:26	Jeff Sullivan: 🙁

9:26	Jeff Sullivan: I’m picking the Yankees but not because I like what they have

9:27	Comment From dds If you were the Red Sox would you re-sign Lester for 5/120, or trade for Cliff Lee for the next 2.5 years at the cost of $60M and prospects?

9:27	Jeff Sullivan: The first one

9:28	Comment From Paul Thoughts on the De Aza/Viciedo “platoon”

9:28	Jeff Sullivan: It’ll be decent enough until one of them is traded or someone gets hurt

9:28	Comment From M. Trout O/U 112 WAR for my career?

9:28	Jeff Sullivan: Under by a lot

9:28	Comment From ST3 Fernandez: Most exciting pitcher in the MLB?

9:28	Jeff Sullivan: He’s my pick! Invaluable contribution made by his personality

9:29	Comment From Jake On the balance, how was your opening day?

9:29	Jeff Sullivan: Probably 97% of perfect

9:30	Comment From The Dude Why was everyone complaining about the strike three call on JBJ yesterday? Looked good to me.

9:31	Jeff Sullivan: Because it was a borderline pitch at just about the most high-leverage of circumstances. It wasn’t obviously a strike nor was it obviously a ball and so in high-leverage times of interpretation, a lot of people are going to complain regardless

9:31	Comment From Kris How long does Gattis last for ATL? His approach is just awful

9:31	Jeff Sullivan: Hopefully for some time because the alternatives are Gerald Laird and Ryan Doumit and they can’t do anything

9:32	Comment From Jared T. Did you get to see any of the defensive tomfoolery from the Giants/Diamondbacks game? What a weird opening day.

9:32	Jeff Sullivan: I was watching everything until 7, and then it was 100% Mariners from that point forward

9:32	Comment From Jake Marcell Ozuna leads the league in wRC+, with 610. Think he’s due for regression?

9:33	Jeff Sullivan: In early June last year he had an .869 OPS!

9:33	Jeff Sullivan: Then he had a .544 OPS 🙁

9:33	Comment From jocephus billy hamilton didn’t look too hot

9:33	Jeff Sullivan: 😮

9:33	Comment From Gabes Over/Under on games for Jose Reyes this year?

9:33	Jeff Sullivan: 120

9:34	Comment From wong To the hating parnell comment, it’s exactly the same sentiment in the NFL with kickers who miss field goals and extra points

9:34	Comment From Guest According to Pitch F/X Jose Fernandez threw his curveball 876 times last year and opposing hitters had a 4 wRC+ against it. Discuss.

9:34	Jeff Sullivan: On the one hand I hate numbers like that, because you can’t just look at line statistics against pitch types removed from context, but I do think that basically captures the essence of the pitch in question

9:35	Jeff Sullivan: From the Rockies recap:

9:36	Jeff Sullivan: The Rockies twice had two on against Fernandez. But Tulowizki struck out on a slider, and Justin Morneau grounded out to end the first. “He’s different with that pitch,” Tulowitkzi said of the slider. “I think that sets him apart from guys. It covers a lot of ground, I guess.”

9:36	Comment From Jake Say a team is projected by FG for 81 wins, and they start the season with a 6 game winning streak. What would FG project their final W-L record at? Just, 84-78? Whatever’s left in the season*projected true talent win percentage?

9:36	Jeff Sullivan: Basically

9:36	Comment From bhudson Moral outrage at Milwaukee fans applauding Braun was amusing, no?

9:36	Jeff Sullivan: I’m thankful that I didn’t end up exposed to people acting like that

9:36	Jeff Sullivan: Like I’m sure it was all over the place on twitter and the blogosphere, but I didn’t see it, which is a big success for this guy

9:37	Comment From Sauceman11 Did you watch Mr. Jose Fernandez last night??? Tell me how he does not reach the following by year end; 200 IP, 2.25ERA, 230 K, and 1.05 WHIP, anyone?

9:37	Jeff Sullivan: Well he could get hurt or really depressed

9:37	Comment From MSW As a Mets fan, I just want to say that baseball is the worst. That is all.

9:37	Jeff Sullivan: THAT’S WHAT YOU GET FOR LOOKING FORWARD TO THINGS

9:37	Comment From gregory Are you buying the idea that Starlin Castro will have a bounce-back season?

9:37	Jeff Sullivan: To being roughly average, sure

9:38	Comment From AK Marcell Ozuna was extremely entertaining yesterday. What can you tell me about Marcell Ozuna?

9:38	Jeff Sullivan: He sure is powerful!

9:38	Jeff Sullivan: That sure is just about it!

9:38	Comment From RK Will Franklin be playing SS in Tacoma? How long do you think he’s there before trade/callup?

9:39	Jeff Sullivan: Lots of SS playing time in Triple-A. Right now he’s injury depth and a midseason trade asset

9:39	Comment From Erik No, volcanologists don’t need therapy. Really, honestly. We’re all perfectly sane. Back off. BACK OFF.

9:39	Jeff Sullivan: /Yellowstone sensationalism

9:39	Comment From Guest Any clue about where Kendrys Morales might sign at this point?

9:39	Jeff Sullivan: Absolutely none. Total mystery to me these days. Someone has to get hurt.

9:40

Comment From Julian
Has anyone ever done a comparison of aging curves for players offered/signed to extensions versus players that a team just let get to free agency? Do you think teams could be seeing something about players that’s causing them not to lock them up long term, or is it just economics/player valuation?

9:40	Jeff Sullivan: Relatedly, Matt Swartz has found and shown that players teams keep tend to age better than players that sign big contracts with a new organization

9:41	Jeff Sullivan: Suggests that, yeah, teams have a pretty good idea of what’s going on with their own players, and they make informed decisions henceforth

9:41	Comment From Jase If Grady Sizemore goes 130 G, .275/.355/.500, 20 HR, 15 SB this year, do you think the Red Sox give him a qualifying-offer? What kind of contract would someone give him?

9:41	Jeff Sullivan: I don’t think he’d get a QO, but I think he could re-sign for a couple years

9:42	Comment From The Dude If Shark can’t strike anyone out, how much does this kill the Cubs chances of moving him?

9:42	Jeff Sullivan: A lot but thankfully you won’t have to worry about that because he’s one of the better strikeout pitchers in baseball!

9:42	Comment From Rated Rookie Francisco Liriano humiliated Anthony Rizzo. Is there anything to learn about either player? Or about same-handed pitching-hitting encounters?

9:42	Jeff Sullivan: Francisco Liriano is completely and utterly unfair against lefties

9:43	Jeff Sullivan: He pitches to lefties like he’s a bullpen specialist, only he’s a starting pitcher

9:43	Comment From CJ If Ramos is out a while…you like Gomes, Martin, M.Montero or Ruiz more?

9:43	Jeff Sullivan: Those players are all on different teams

9:43	Comment From The Dude Reed’s velocity was probably largely adrenaline driven.

9:44	Jeff Sullivan: He was up about 2 ticks from a season ago

9:44	Comment From Robert Trout vs Felix lived up to expectations, yes?

9:44	Jeff Sullivan: That was perfect. We got to see Trout be Trout and we got to see Felix be Felix and everybody won in the end. Except for the Angels and their fans

9:45	Comment From SMC From a purely strategic perspective, shouldn’t a manager (if he hasn’t used it already) challenge the last play of the game every time? Even if he loses, the very small chance of winning the challenge trumps the certainty of losing the game.

9:45	Jeff Sullivan: Isn’t it up to the umpires by that point?

9:46	Jeff Sullivan: I think managers can only challenge in the first six innings

9:46	Comment From AK Should I check my voicemail

9:46	Jeff Sullivan: No, never check voicemail

9:46	Comment From gregory Extend Samardzija or trade him at the deadline?

9:46	Jeff Sullivan: Virtually certain trade

9:47	Comment From Guest Semien or Matt Davidson: Which one is the better hitting prospect? Do either or both have a full-time position by ASB?

9:48	Jeff Sullivan: I think Semien is more likely to be okay and I think Davidson is more likely to be good. They’ll get more and more playing time as the season wears on and as places open up

9:48	Comment From Jered Weaver Can I throw harder than Barry Zito?

9:48	Jeff Sullivan: Yes, although you might not need to to succeed

9:48	Comment From Guest How bad to you expect Weaver to be this year? He looks like he gets gassed pretty early for a guy who doesn’t even throw hard.

9:48	Jeff Sullivan: I expect him to be one of the better starters in the American League

9:49	Comment From bdhudson Jose Fernandez has a delightful smile

9:49	Jeff Sullivan: Every player should be that excited about baseball

9:49	Comment From Maxamuz Pound sand Jeff, that call was a ball on JBJ and you know it.

9:49	Jeff Sullivan: Obviously I do not know it

9:50	Comment From Cory LOL I just looked at the probable pitchers for tomorrow and the Royals #2 is Jason Vargas. People are seriously picking this team to make the playoffs?

9:50	Jeff Sullivan: Yeah, this is the big issue people have with that team, although it’s worth noting Yordano Ventura could shake up the rotation order in a damn hurry

9:50	Comment From juan pierres mustache not sure if you saw much of Sonny Gray yesterday since he was pitching at the same time as the Mariners were playing, but his defensive highlights were some of the coolest things I saw yesterday

9:50	Jeff Sullivan: I”ll make a point of looking at that in a short while! Thanks

9:50	Comment From dw Would a Nick Frankliin for Joc Pederson trade make sense for both clubs? If not, who would have to throw something in and what would that look like?

9:51	Jeff Sullivan: Mariners would probably have to add a little to the package

9:51	Comment From Nimmo Would you be shocked if Jeter hit .300 this season?

9:51	Jeff Sullivan: No, because the last time he was a regular he hit .316 and he was already old then

9:51	Comment From Washington Irving Any candidates to pull a Chris Davis this year?

9:51	Jeff Sullivan: Lots of candidates, but no one’s gonna do it

9:51	Comment From Guest Looks like Mike Trout plans to go for 10 WAR again

9:52	Jeff Sullivan: And he took out a good reliever, too. So if he stays the same, and he injures the opposition…

9:52	Comment From ST3 I submitted this one to Carson last night but you’re probably the expert… Which is more likely: A) Justin Smoak lives up to his prospect hype or B) A bug flies into his constantly open mouth.

9:52	Jeff Sullivan: A bug? One bug? Definitely the bug

9:52	Jeff Sullivan: Probably up to 50 or 60 bugs before I change my answer

9:52	Comment From Nimmo Thank god for the Raptors, if not for them Toronto would be in full out panic mode! (Leafs losing 8 straight in a tight playoff race, Jays and RA getting destroyed by Rays, and Reyes on the sidelines).

9:53	Jeff Sullivan: The Leafs happen to be salvaging my NHL season experience! Thank you, Leafs!

9:54	Comment From JimO Why is outfield arm so much more important for RF than LF? is this just because RF throws to 3B more often than LF throws to 1B?

9:54	Jeff Sullivan: Two long throws to make, to 3B and home.

9:55	Comment From Blue Coller Red Neck What kind of line would Barry Bonds put up if he started working out now and joined a team at the AS break? 200/350/350?

9:55	Jeff Sullivan: You don’t know how many times I think about this every week

9:55	Jeff Sullivan: I think even better than that!

9:55	Comment From AK But for real can I hear some things about Ozuna?

9:56	Jeff Sullivan: Young, talented, powerful, athletic, can run, will be limited by his approach. Nobody knows about him, and he could help the Marlins for a while, but I doubt he blossoms into a core asset

9:56	Comment From Guest Do you think Kershaws delayed start is going to affect the likelihood of him winning the Cy Young?

9:57	Jeff Sullivan: Yeah, it’s already working against him. The voters really like innings totals

9:57	Comment From duder How long until we can start actually taking away anything from games/performances? A month? 2? When does SSS turn into OKSS?

9:57	Jeff Sullivan: Depends on what you’re looking at. Pitches/stuff/approach, you can learn about earlier. Raw overall performance, that’s going to take a while

9:57	Comment From inquiring mind Can Matt Davidson be a good OBP guy in addition to the power?

9:57	Jeff Sullivan: Decent OBP guy

9:58	Comment From Josh Did you feel like Felix threw too many in the dirt last night? Zunino did a lot of work behind the plate blocking stuff left and right. Lots of ks, but also a lot of risk involved with guys on base. Don’t you think?

9:58	Jeff Sullivan: Pitches down there keep there from being too many guys on base

9:58	Comment From Paul Jeff! What the heck is up with Ramos? leaves the game? Broken bone? Oh wait, Xrays negative? What are they smoking at Citi Field? How bad do you think this injury is?

9:59	Jeff Sullivan: They say he first tweaked his hand something like a week ago? Right now he’s being examined further but last I saw there was speculation this could be a hamate thing

9:59	Comment From Max Prediction for Jose Abreu?

9:59	Jeff Sullivan: Best position player on the team by a lot