Jeff Sullivan FanGraphs Chat — 4/15/14

9:04	Jeff Sullivan: Today we talk about baseball?

9:04	Comment From Royo Waiting for the writer to provide content…

9:04	Jeff Sullivan: Wait no longer!

9:04	Comment From Awake in Seattle Do you expect Almonte to remain a full-time starter all season?

9:05	Jeff Sullivan: I expect him to play an awful lot, and I don’t expect him to bat leadoff all season long. I also expect him to be adequate as opposed to a guy with a .286 OBP

9:05	Comment From Boston Buck How worried are you about Koji Uehara? Safe to say he ends up on the DL at some point this season?

9:06	Jeff Sullivan: Considerably less worried than I was a few days ago before imaging tests came back all right

9:07	Jeff Sullivan: Granted, shoulder MRI exams can miss details that are only revealed upon surgical intervention, but I think Uehara will be okay, and he’ll just end up getting some semi-frequent rest

9:08	Jeff Sullivan: Uehara says he pitched through something like this with Texas, so he’ll be smarter for having gone through that experience

9:08	Comment From tommy Is Dee Gordon good now?

9:08	Jeff Sullivan: I really really hope so

9:08	Jeff Sullivan: And, no, almost certainly not

9:09	Comment From Mark Before/after on Andrelton Simmons’ first strikeout of the year: April 25.

9:09	Jeff Sullivan: Before

9:09	Jeff Sullivan: But, kudos to Simmons, who is the only qualified player in baseball with a K% of 0

9:09	Jeff Sullivan: also his ISO is .268

9:10	Jeff Sullivan: Giancarlo Stanton’s at .271. no biggie

9:10	Comment From john So Juan Lagares is probably headed to the DL. This makes me sad

9:11	Jeff Sullivan: Think of this like getting a cold. It sucks to have a cold for a little while, but when the cold is gone, holy hell do you ever appreciate being healthy

9:11	Comment From Sean What’s up with Homer Bailey? Should we expect a return to last year results? Seems like super bad luck but is that all?

9:11	Jeff Sullivan: I’m just going to be simplistic about this and show you three numbers

9:12	Jeff Sullivan: 2013 xFIP: 3.34. 2014 xFIP: 2.80. 2014 HR/FB: 60%

9:12	Jeff Sullivan: Ten fly balls, six home runs.

9:12	Jeff Sullivan: The other indicators are okay. Bailey should be okay. I’m sure he’s thrown some really bad pitches at some really bad times so far this month, but I’m not the least bit nervous

9:12	Comment From Guest Did you watch any of the surrealist comedy that was the Braves vs Phillies game last night?

9:13	Jeff Sullivan: Almost makes me miss writing extended game recaps

9:13	Jeff Sullivan: That would’ve been fun to write up, from the Phillies’ side, because the best writing comes out of a 50/50 mix of anger and resignation

9:14	Jeff Sullivan: BJ Rosenberg becomes the first guy ever to allow homers to all 3 guys he faces and that’s not even the dominant story the morning after. it’s nuts

9:15	Comment From Rocko Think Brandon Belt takes another mini-leap?

9:15	Jeff Sullivan: So far it’s almost like he’s sold out for more power. I could see a SLG increase and an OBP decrease, but I don’t think he’s going to achieve a new and meaningfully higher level of performance

9:16

Comment From jocephus
“I know sabermatricians don’t like it, but this game comes down to wins and losses. That’s what we’re preaching in here,” Matheny said. “And a guy who finds a way to win, to me, needs to be given a lot of credit because that’s the ultimate goal for us. Whether you’re getting a lot of support or throwing a shutout, one way or another, you’re finding a way to get it done, and Lance has done that.”

9:16	Jeff Sullivan: I’m perfectly okay with giving guys credit for battling after the fact. And it probably says something good about their fortitude. But if a guy is constantly battling, that doesn’t necessarily bode so well for the future

9:16	Comment From Shawn Jesse Chavez…yay/nay?

9:16	Comment From Catoblepas Jesse Chavez! discuss.

9:18	Jeff Sullivan: It was weird to me how Eric Stults suddenly became a thing at 32

9:18	Jeff Sullivan: Now Chavez is suddenly becoming a thing at 30, with very little velocity drop since shifting out of the bullpen

9:20

Jeff Sullivan: He’s a strike-thrower with a reasonably broad repertoire. Probably not literally one of the best starting pitchers in baseball, but at this point the A’s have to feel pretty good about the piece they just about created. Sucks to be without Jarrod Parker, but if you have a guy like Chavez hanging around looking for an opportunity…

9:20	Comment From David Remember this time last week when Bryce Harper was hitting .138 and people were freaking out? Now hitting .348/.412/.522 and lashing XBH everywhere. The difference of one week early in the season.

9:20	Comment From Gareth Has there ever been a time when the closer position in mlb has been as shaky as it is right now? Its pretty rediculous.

9:20	Jeff Sullivan: When there’s less and less emphasis on the importance of “proven” closers, there’s less of a barrier to a positional shakeup

9:21	Comment From Anonymous Tanaka’s starting today. Who do you think his best comp is?

9:21	Jeff Sullivan: postponed 🙁

9:21	Jeff Sullivan: but: http://www.fangraphs.com/bl…

9:21	Jeff Sullivan: You’ve got your Kuroda, Iwakuma, Haren, and Anibal Sanchez comps, and Dave also suggested to me via email that he’s a little bit like Felix

9:22	Comment From Los Thoughts on the transfer rule?

9:23	Jeff Sullivan: I’m sure it can’t possibly be as stupid as it feels, but it feels really stupid. I liked the old way. I don’t remember the old way ever being a problem. This way leads to way more questions than answers. When does a catch become a catch? How did we end up making this complicated?

9:24	Comment From Josh Does the Matt Moore and Alex Cobb injuries move the Red Sox definitively ahead of the Rays at this point?

9:25	Jeff Sullivan: It’s still close — Moore isn’t that good and Cobb’s only out a fraction of the season — but obviously this is bad for the Rays and good for everyone else in the division. Gives the Sox a little bit of a playoff-odds boost

9:26	Comment From American League Hustle What happens to Marcus Semien once Beckham is activated from the DL?

9:26	Jeff Sullivan: He plays in the majors a lot less

9:26	Jeff Sullivan: at least for a while

9:26	Comment From Gabe Bartolo Colon: one bad start, or reason to worry that Father Time is catching up with him?

9:27	Jeff Sullivan: The start before he threw seven shutout innings

9:27	Comment From Kris Did you read the article on Puig? Why is it so difficult for people to realize of course he’s going to act differently than most players…

9:27	Jeff Sullivan: Yeah, I took the time to read that Sunday night

9:28

Jeff Sullivan: People aren’t used to considering the depth of other people. With performers, there’s a tendency against giving the benefit of the doubt. The expectation is that, if you’re in the major leagues, you have to be a certain way, because the majority of players are a certain way, but the majority of players haven’t gone through what Puig has gone through

9:29	Jeff Sullivan: I don’t know that I’ll ever understand the appeal of judgment. At least, critical, negative judgment. How does that make someone feel better?

9:30	Comment From Michael should i be concerned about Will Myers

9:30	Jeff Sullivan: not really

9:30	Comment From Michael Who will be the first high profile prospect to be called up? Bradley, Polanco, Taveres, Springer

9:30	Jeff Sullivan: starting to think Bradley

9:31	Comment From Travis Is this the year Aaron Harang finally puts it all together and wins that elusive Cy Young?

9:31	Jeff Sullivan: he was so close 🙁 http://www.baseball-referen…

9:31	Comment From Ceej If he stays healthy, how many innings will the Mariners let Walker throw this year?

9:31	Jeff Sullivan: 150?

9:31	Comment From Vliet Is Paxton this years Cueto?

9:32	Jeff Sullivan: You mean good pitcher? Yeah, Paxton’s a good pitcher

9:32	Comment From David Robbie Ross as a starter. So far so good. A reason for some optimism in TEX?

9:32	Jeff Sullivan: Ross is interesting and the injury situation has been absurd. A reason to be optimistic is that players are going to be coming back healthy starting soon

9:33	Comment From Mark How long before B.J Upton is a utility outfielder in Atlanta? Is there any kind of market for him?

9:33	Jeff Sullivan: Market?

9:33	Jeff Sullivan: lol

9:34	Jeff Sullivan: The Braves are going to have to try almost everything. So Upton’s going to have a pretty long leash. Let’s re-visit in a month and a half

9:35	Comment From Gareth Whats up with khris Davis not playing?

9:35	Jeff Sullivan: Morton and Lynn are basically righty specialists. Bad matchups

9:35	Comment From stonepie i picked up lincecum for tonight’s start vs the dodgers. 1-10 how crazy am i?

9:35	Jeff Sullivan: not enough information

9:36	Comment From Justin Dee Gordon! I’m the official cold-water-thrower amongst my fellow Dodger fans, but the increased contact rate and higher groundball-to-flyball ratio is encouraging, right?

9:36	Jeff Sullivan: Well he has a career 45 wRC+ on grounders, so what you’re really looking for more of is line drives

9:37	Jeff Sullivan: And contact rate is only very barely tied to productivity

9:37	Jeff Sullivan: But ultimately Gordon needed to change and right now there are some signs of his having changed so in that sense he’s done more good than bad

9:37	Comment From SMC The Marlins have lost 8 in a row. Discuss.

9:37	Jeff Sullivan: They suck

9:38	Comment From Gareth Can we call Billy Hamilton a bust yet?

9:38	Jeff Sullivan: In Mike Trout’s first year he batted .220

9:38	Comment From Guest How do pitcher’s groundball rates translate from the minors to MLB?

9:39	Jeff Sullivan: Usually well. What generates grounders in one place usually generates grounders anywhere

9:39	Comment From Michael Will Matt Latos pitch this year?

9:39	Jeff Sullivan: Yeah, but probably not for a while

9:39	Jeff Sullivan: And you know the Reds’ biggest weakness coming into the season? Rotation depth

9:40	Comment From toot toot do you think the rays might end up dumping salary this year, with the devastation to their pitching staff?

9:40	Jeff Sullivan: They can get through this and they’re still a pretty good team. Price gets moved next offseason unless the Rays fall flat on their faces over the coming 2-3 months

9:41	Comment From yojiveself yes, I know “its early”, but 0 homeruns from Khris Davis and his k% is pretty high. Should we temper expectations to less than 20 hr’s?

9:41	Jeff Sullivan: 20 sounds about right

9:42	Comment From Allen Craig Whats wrong with me? Will I figure it out or am I broken like Shelby?

9:42	Jeff Sullivan: Stop hitting so many groundballs

9:42	Jeff Sullivan: You shouldn’t be running one of the highest groundball rates in baseball

9:44	Comment From Dewey What is wrong with the Angels? Is the bullpen completely responsible?

9:44	Jeff Sullivan: Fun fact: Angels lead baseball in position-player WAR

9:45	Jeff Sullivan: But the bullpen also leads baseball in home runs allowed

9:45	Jeff Sullivan: and Jered Weaver’s allowed too many dingers. The dingers need to figure themselves out

9:45	Comment From Hawaii Good chance the A’s run away with it?

9:45	Jeff Sullivan: Run away with it? No, they’re not good enough and the others aren’t bad enough

9:46	Comment From Snid Gregory Polanco . How soon?

9:46	Jeff Sullivan: Travis Snider needs to stop hitting first

9:48	Comment From Ivanna Know What to do about Ivan Nova?

9:48	Jeff Sullivan: Wasn’t he just good against the Red Sox?

9:48	Jeff Sullivan: He’s presumably fine

9:48	Comment From gregory Billy Hamilton – overmatched or is it still too early to say?

9:48	Jeff Sullivan: He has been overmatched, but that doesn’t mean he will be overmatched

9:49	Comment From Royo Blah blah blah April, but Cashner is still fun to watch right now. A homerun will be given up at some point, I suppose.

9:49	Jeff Sullivan: And weirdly he’s still allowing a contact rate higher than the league average. Also higher than the same rate in 2013

9:49	Comment From Guest Tell me something positive about Shelby Miller. Like really, just give me something…

9:49	Jeff Sullivan: He has his youth

9:50	Comment From Tom Do you think there is still some doubt on Dominican listed birthdays? I thought that could possibly explain why Starling Marte got less money than Gyorko even though he is better.

9:51	Jeff Sullivan: Gyorko is an over-powered middle infielder, Marte is an under-powered corner outfielder. There’s a difference in how these player types get compensated

9:51	Jeff Sullivan: Not that I have any particular insight into the negotiations but I’m pretty sure that was a factor, even if it shouldn’t be

9:51

Comment From Henry
Is there any metric that states how likely a pitcher is to give up any runs in one inning. Knowing runs per 9 (ERA, xFIP) is great, but that doesn’t tell us the likelihood of, let’s say, Ernesto Frieri blowing a one-run lead in one inning of work. It seems like that stat would be more useful for evaluating 8th and 9th inning guys than many others.

9:52	Jeff Sullivan: It would just be some function of regular ERA or RA. Some guys might be more likely to give up one run while other guys might be more likely to give up runs in bunches but I bet the differences would be small and would take forever to reveal themselves significantly

9:53	Comment From GSon Ubaldo has been a dud in Baltimore..like last year, he started slowly and came on strong. When do the Orioles press the panic button on their $ 48 MM dud?

9:53	Jeff Sullivan: July?

9:53	Comment From Chris Once Walker and Kuma are back will Erasmo get sent back down to to work his s@%t out?

9:53	Jeff Sullivan: Looking that way

9:54	Comment From Mackie If the A’s do move to Hillsboro, would you leave the M’s?

9:55	Jeff Sullivan: Definitely not. It would appear that I’m stuck to the Mariners forever

9:55	Comment From Jeff When are you bringing back ‘The Worst of the Best’ series? That always made my week!

9:55	Jeff Sullivan: It’ll be back, but not on a weekly basis. Too much work every week and not enough diversity in results

9:56	Comment From Guest what are your thoughts on Edison volques ROS

9:56	Jeff Sullivan: career-best walk rate

9:56	Comment From Donnie Would you rather watch a game featuring the A’s or the Astros?

9:56	Jeff Sullivan: the A’s because they are good and the Astros are bad

9:57	Comment From Guest do you think Dr James Andrews is right about what’s behind increase in TJ surgeries? (is the premise even correct?)

9:57	Jeff Sullivan: I’m not exactly in position here to question the wisdom and conclusions of Dr. James Andrews

9:57	Comment From Gorman Thomas Are the Brewers for real?

9:57	Jeff Sullivan: Didn’t I just write about this yesterday?

9:58	Comment From Gareth Chavez – theres gotta be regression there sooner or later, right?

9:58	Jeff Sullivan: Yeah, but the question is, to what? Seems to me he can be at least something like a No. 3 starter

9:59	Comment From GSon Jose Abreu… with a slugging % north of .500 and a good approach, does the low BA concern the CWSox?

9:59	Jeff Sullivan: They spent $56 million on Adam Dunn