Jeff Sullivan FanGraphs Chat — 4/21/17

April 21, 2017

9:06	Jeff Sullivan: Hello friends

9:06	Jeff Sullivan: Welcome to Friday baseball chat

9:06	Bork: Hello, friend!

9:07	Jeff Sullivan: Hello friend

9:07	Sterling Mallory Chris Archer: How do you envision Marte playing when he comes back?

9:07	Jeff Sullivan: I don’t imagine much of anything is going to change

9:08	Jeff Sullivan: History suggests that when these players come back, they’re more or less the same. You can interpret that in one of two ways. Either the PEDs didn’t help performance much, or they just take a long time before the positive effects wear off

9:09	Ozzie Guillen: Your thoughts on Quintana? Walks are up, unlucky on HRs…any concerns?

9:10

Jeff Sullivan: His stuff seems to be the same, he’s throwing just as many pitches in the strike zone, and his contact rate hasn’t meaningfully budged. Given those factors, and given his track record, I think this is a minor slump that some statistics are exaggerating. I’m not concerned about anything yet, and I’m sure he’s somewhat preoccupied. I’ll be more worried if his ERA is still way up in a month

9:11	Jeff Sullivan: Also willing to give him a little bit more time to get comfortable with Narvaez behind the plate

9:12	Kiermaier’s Piercing Green Eyes: Tampa Bay is shifting something like 37% against RHH to a league average of 10%. Do they know something we don’t?

9:12	Jeff Sullivan: Righties are pull hitters too

9:12	Jeff Sullivan: No reason not to shift, if you’re predisposed to shift

9:12

Chaps: Since the Mariners and Brewers don’t play each other this season, it seems like Keon Broxton won’t have a chance to face off against James Paxton. Which do you think is most likely: 1) They face off in the all star game, 2) One of them gets traded, and they face off after that trade, or 3) They face off in the World Series?

9:13	Jeff Sullivan: The most likely would be the first one, but that damned Broxton is making me look like a fool

9:13	Jeff Sullivan: He’s just all kinds of messed up 🙁

9:14	Andrew: Anything to take away from Nola’s velocity last night? He was sitting around 89-90, instead of his previous starts at 93-94

9:14	Jeff Sullivan: Although his velocity was technically down, it was right in line with where he was all of last season http://www.brooksbaseball.net/velo.php?player=605400&b_hand=-1&gFilt=r…SI\|FC\|CU\|SL\|CS\|KN\|CH\|FS\|SB&time=game&minmax=ci&var=mph&s_type=16&startDate=03/30/2007&endDate=04/21/2017

9:16	Jeff Sullivan: He also still topped out at 93, so that’s encouraging. Given the four walks and given last year’s injury, I get the heightened concern, but maybe yesterday he simply didn’t have it

9:17	Steven Souza Jr.: Not bad, huh? Sure, my BABIP might come down a bit, but is my start intriguing you at all now that I’m making a reasonable amount of contact?

9:18	Jeff Sullivan: Here’s the weird thing about Souza: his strikeout rate is down like 10 percentage points, but his contact rate is up just two percentage points. It’s right in line with his career mark. So I don’t think there’s been a forward leap

9:18

Jeff Sullivan: But Souza has been more selective, and he’s hit more balls in the air. Given that Statcast has shown he’s a pretty good defensive outfielder, any offensive progress would be big. We know he can hit the ball hard. A few years ago lots of baseball people suggested they’d take Souza over Wil Myers. There’s a foundation to build on

9:19	Billy Boy: The Phillies have been 6-9 the past two seasons on 4/20. Just spreading the word.

9:19	Jeff Sullivan: That’s not nice

9:19	Jeff Sullivan: That’s bad

9:20	2-D: Is there a way to find out how many times an intentional walk to make the bases loaded backfires? It feels like the pitchers’ walk rate goes up in these situations.

9:20	Jeff Sullivan: There is not, unfortunately, an easy way. But there is a way. It would probably require a lot of Play Indexing

9:20	Jeff Sullivan: Or, failing that, going nuts with Retrosheet queries

9:20	Frank: Do you see Dansby Swanson getting on track soon, or could he end up a failed top prospect similar to Gordan Beckham?

9:21	Jeff Sullivan: Let’s calm down before we go too far with our Gordon Beckham comparisons

9:22	Jeff Sullivan: Swanson does not actually have that much professional experience. This slump isn’t a good thing, but he has plenty of time. There was bound to be a dip after last summer’s strong debut

9:22	lakes: You buying Addison Russell’s changes? Looks to be swinging less at outside pitches, fewer strikeouts. Could be .260, 25 HR batter?

9:22	Jeff Sullivan: He changes all the time

9:22	Jeff Sullivan: So far none of the changes have actually unlocked him

9:24	Jeff Sullivan: The improved discipline so far has been greatly encouraging, and Russell remains potentially exciting, but I want to see him face more good pitchers

9:25	Jeff Sullivan: He’s had these low O-Swing% spurts before, and I want to see him do this for at least another month

9:26	Josh R: An overlooked part of the Dodgers failure to hit lefty pitching is that their Righty bats can’t get the job done. In 2016 .224/.313/.354 and so far even a little worse this year. .210/.309/.364. This doesn’t even seem possible. Should they worry about it and what can they do ?

9:27	Jeff Sullivan: Forsythe will help. Gutierrez will help when he’s able to play. Their lineup shouldn’t struggle against lefties like this, and I don’t think it’s going to keep up

9:28	Jeff Sullivan: The team’s wRC+ against lefties so far is nearly average. This is a narrative I have trouble buying into

9:29

Jack: If a foul pop-up is coming down right where the on-deck hitter is standing, does he have to get out of the fielder’s way? I assume he’s not allowed to go out of his way to interfere with the catch on a play near him, but in a situation where it’s coming down right at him, is he allowed to continue to stand there and make things more difficult for the fielder? Could Aaron Judge just take the ball off the top of his helmet so Jose Ramirez wouldn’t be able to reach over him to catch it?

9:29	Jeff Sullivan: Reddit to the rescue!

9:29	Jeff Sullivan: https://www.reddit.com/r/baseball/comments/3oihoy/what_happens_if_a_ba…

9:30

Jeff Sullivan: Rule 6.01(b) Fielder Right of Way The players, coaches or any member of a team at bat shall vacate any space (including both dugouts or bullpens) needed by a fielder who is attempting to field a batted or thrown ball. If a member of the team at bat (other than a runner) hinders a fielder’s attempt to catch or field a batted ball, the ball is dead, the batter is declared out and all runners return to the bases occupied at the time of the pitch. If a member of the team at bat (other than a runner) hinders a fielder’s attempt to field a thrown ball, the ball is dead, the runner on whom the play is being made shall be declared out and all runners return to the last legally occupied base at the time of the interference.

9:30	5 Run Homer: I haven’t watched much baseball because my favourite hockey team is in the playoffs and the Jays are awful. Im

9:30	5 Run Homer: I WASNT DONE TYPING THAT

9:31	Jeff Sullivan: I know the feeling. My own baseball consumption is being limited right now on account of the Senators. Which, hey, that’s great! But baseball season for me won’t truly begin until the Sens are eliminated

9:31	Jeff Sullivan: This usually isn’t a problem. 😐

9:31	Angry FG Reader: I invested heavily in Keon Broxton because of you and your ilk. Please give me hope that everything will be OK.

9:31	Jeff Sullivan: I don’t know man

9:32	Jeff Sullivan: I mean, he started last year like this, and then he had that crazy second half. But this is messy

9:33	Jeff Sullivan: The only optimism I have is that his contact rate hasn’t changed that much. He strikes out looking so often.

9:34	Robin: At what sample size can we feel confident that Haniger won’t go all Ackley on us? What type of modifier should our expectations for him be due to him not being forced to develop within the M’s organization?

9:35	Jeff Sullivan: Rookie Ackley had a 117 wRC+ over 376 plate appearances

9:36	Jeff Sullivan: So, bad news!

9:36	Jeff Sullivan: Dustin Ackley and Jeremy Reed ruin everything

9:36	Jeff Sullivan: But Haniger really does seem like the real deal. Contact’s good. Discipline’s good. Doesn’t swing and miss too much. He’ll slump, but I love the overall skillset

9:38	Big Tuna: What is up with Carlos Martinez?

9:39	Jeff Sullivan: I don’t think anything is really up with Carlos Martinez, in terms of something being horribly wrong

9:40	Jeff Sullivan: He continues to struggle to avoid walks against lefties, and I don’t know how much longer that’s going to hound him

9:40	Jeff Sullivan: He’s made himself even more difficult to hit, just getting the bat on the ball, but that results in deeper counts, and Martinez doesn’t have pinpoint command. Deep counts mean more strikeouts and more walks

9:41	Jeff Sullivan: With a few more first-pitch strikes, Martinez will be on track. I’m not too worried

9:41	Big Tuna: What do you make of Votto’s slow start? I know he experiments a lot.

9:41	Jeff Sullivan: And here I thought everyone loved what Votto was doing!

9:41	Jeff Sullivan: He has a 123 wRC+, and that goes with a .170 BABIP

9:42	Jeff Sullivan: The man hates striking out. He might be sacrificing some contact quality to keep the strikeouts down. But just as with Clayton Kershaw a week ago — my answer is that I worry about Votto less than I worry about literally any other hitter

9:43	Jeff Sullivan: Literally literally. I have more confidence in Votto than anyone

9:43	Jeff Sullivan: And, by the way, his O-Swing% is back to normal. It’s his Z-Swing% that remains up by 10 points

9:43	Rain: Jon Lester someone who can survive with diminished velo given his control, pitch tunneling, pitch pairs?

9:44	Jeff Sullivan: I don’t think we know enough about tunneling or pairs or anything to be declarative. Just, Lester throws a bunch of pitches within a narrow velo range, and his command is super good. When you can locate, your margin of error is large

9:45	Greg: If the Braves crash and burn could you see them flipping Freeman for a monster package?

9:45	Jeff Sullivan: It would have to be a total, utter catastrophe

9:45	Jeff Sullivan: Otherwise they just can’t do it

9:45	Jeff Sullivan: And they’d have to look out for the Brewers potentially shopping Eric Thames

9:47

OC: Why don’t we see more 2-3 arbitration extensions with elite relievers? Relievers can be volatile, but it seems both parties should be mutually interested, especially as more teams prevent their best young relievers from closing due to increasing arbitration costs. These extensions would give teams would get a cost-controlled closer, while the player would get the chance to earn the “proven closer” label, valuable for free agency.

9:48	Jeff Sullivan: It doesn’t not happen. Doolittle, Kimbrel, Herrera, Jones, Ottavino, Harris, and Strop have signed deals while still in the team-control years

9:49	CaptainPeanutbutter: Dansby Swanson and Byron Buxton are tied for worst position player’s at this point with -0.6. How surprising is this? Which surprised you more? And which do you think will end the season higher?

9:50	Jeff Sullivan: Swanson is definitely the bigger surprise. We’ve seen Buxton do this before. Because of that, I think Swanson has the better chance of finishing higher. Buxton just seems lost. Swanson seems like he’s struggling for the first time

9:50	Relsh: Thanks for all the great articles, Jeff. Love sharing them as the writing makes the topics super accessible to the more casual fans

9:50	Jeff Sullivan: Thank you for reading them, because I can’t believe this is an actual job

9:51	Mark Shapiro: What can I get for Josh Donaldson?

9:51	Jeff Sullivan: Right now probably ibuprofen and a heating pad

9:52	Brandon: What’s up with Paul Goldschmidt? Is this a temporary power dip or a longer term downward continuation trend that started last year? Have we seen peak Goldschmidt already? He seems too young for that.

9:53	Jeff Sullivan: Recent Padres games aside, I’ll give Goldschmidt a break because he’s faced a bunch of tough pitching. His contact rate is down, which isn’t great, but his batted-ball quality is basically fine. This feels like a minor blip, not a longer-term concern

9:53	Jeff Sullivan: Still very dangerous

9:54	2-D: Should Jose Berrios be in the Twins’ rotation right now?

9:55	Jeff Sullivan: That depends entirely on their internal evaluation — they have their reasons for his being in Triple-A, and they have things they’re looking for. If and when they’re satisfied, it shouldn’t be hard for him to step in for Mejia

9:55	Lord of the Infield Flies: Do you think Maikel Franco ever settles in as an above-average 3B? The tools are there, but the results are frustrating.

9:56	Jeff Sullivan: I think with his above-average power and above-average contact, it’ll be hard for him to be too terrible for too long. He does chase often enough that he limits his own ceiling, and his defense isn’t extraordinary, but he should end up with triple-digit wRC+ marks

9:58	Big Tuna: With Mancini having a start at lead off this week, is he actually somebody we should take seriously?

9:59	Jeff Sullivan: According to Statcast, since 2015, just 29 players have hit a ball in the air at least 115 miles per hour. Mancini is one of them, on a home run from a week and a half ago

9:59	Jeff Sullivan: Now, this is a list of players that goes from Giancarlo Stanton to Will Venable, so it’s no guarantee of success, but that hints at Mancini’s peak power. Maybe he’s Mark Trumbo!