Jeff Sullivan FanGraphs Chat — 4/24/15

April 24, 2015

9:09	Jeff Sullivan: Hello friends

9:09	Jeff Sullivan: Welcome to hot sexy live baseball chat

9:09	Jeff Sullivan: I’ll be your host, and I live in a time zone that is ten minutes slower than whatever your time zone is

9:09	Comment From Guest Good morning, Jeff, glad you could join us.

9:09	Jeff Sullivan: Me too!

9:10	Jeff Sullivan: I’ll start the chat with this: per usual, I encourage you to not bother asking fantasy questions. I don’t play so I can’t give good advice, and also most people don’t care to read about your fantasy teams

9:10	Jeff Sullivan: If you ask a fantasy question that is dressed up as just a real baseball question, though, I can handle real baseball questions

9:10	Comment From Carl S How serious do you think Adam Eaton’s allergies are?

9:10	Jeff Sullivan: Pretty serious, to explain his terrible hitting to this point

9:11	Jeff Sullivan: He’ll be fine, of course, but he must be low on Zyrtec

9:11	Comment From Guest Royals seem awfully chippy this young season, are they still sore about the Ws last yr?

9:12

Jeff Sullivan: Whenever a team makes a surprise run to a championship, they feel like the next year, everyone is out to get them. It’s a little self-important, but everyone who plays professional sports is kind of full of himself, because you have to be. The Royals probably feel like it’s them against the world; everyone else probably feels like it’s them against the Royals

9:13	Jeff Sullivan: Somebody somewhere probably encouraged Ventura to try to pitch with some attitude. Classic, old-school hardball. It will take years for Ventura to figure out how to actually do that without being a dumbass

9:13	Comment From MM The Nats bullpen is terrible

9:14	Jeff Sullivan: Not that I encourage this line of thinking, but they have a collective sub-3 ERA

9:15	Jeff Sullivan: and they’re right in the middle in K-BB%. “terrible” is strong. I like Treinen a lot

9:16	Comment From Ira How much does cold weather truly affect a pitcher’s command?

9:17

Jeff Sullivan: You have to start with the caveat that every game and every pitcher is different, but I think I recall reading that runs go up with both very high temperatures and very low temperatures. And when it’s cold, batted balls won’t do as much damage, so there you’re looking at command issues, for sure. And it makes total intuitive sense; throwing anything when it’s cold out is miserable

9:17	Jeff Sullivan: So is hitting, but at least if you’re hitting and a pitch is bad, you don’t have to swing at it

9:18	Comment From Guest Dave thinks the M’s will trade for Trumbo, would he be an upgrade over Lomo and Kivlehan?

9:18	Jeff Sullivan: I assure you Dave was not thinking that Trumbo would be an upgrade; he was thinking that the Mariners would be thinking that Trumbo is an upgrade

9:19	Jeff Sullivan: He wouldn’t really make the team much better, no

9:19	Comment From Josh G Are you concerned at all about Ottavino? Any chance it’s more serious than the Rockies are letting on?

9:20	Jeff Sullivan: I am a fear-mongering coward with any sort of pitcher arm discomfort. That doesn’t really answer your question

9:20	Comment From pot 4 stats (that you should check) that might be indicative of a “high scoring game”?

9:21	Jeff Sullivan: I can use half that many stats! runs by one team, runs by the other team

9:21	Jeff Sullivan: I might have misinterpreted your question

9:22	Comment From BoSoxFan Clay Buchoulz has a K/9 over 11, BB/9 under 3, and GB% of 55 could we be looking at a good/great year from him

9:22	Jeff Sullivan: I wouldn’t go with great quite yet, but obviously everything’s in place and the grounders are encouraging

9:23	Jeff Sullivan: He’s throwing more two-seamers to off-set a drop in four-seamers, which explains that

9:24	Jeff Sullivan: And he’s throwing everything lower. His pitches are more down in the zone, which is a different look for him, and he works half the time in a ballpark where fly balls get a run-value boost. Encouraging early marks

9:24	Comment From joecull Do you think that Devon Travis has a higher ceiling than believed before the season, or is he just maximizing his tools?

9:26	Jeff Sullivan: This is a bit of tools maximization, but it depended who you asked about Travis before the year — we liked his minor-league performance, and lobbied for him to start at second base, while some observers/scouts didn’t like his assortment.

9:27	Jeff Sullivan: I, personally, didn’t expect him to look this strong. He’s hit two out to dead center in Toronto, and he’s really hit three of his four homers. So for me, Travis’ power ceiling is higher than where I put it, and that’s a good thing for the Jays

9:28	Comment From Vslyke Any guesses on how many managers get fired during and after this year? Seems like the Marlins, the Reds, the Braves, and the Brewers could all can theirs at least.

9:28	Jeff Sullivan: Brewers could be coming any day now

9:28	Jeff Sullivan: Marlins are more of a wild card; mixed messages getting sent. I’ll go with a total of three replaced managers by Christmas

9:29	Comment From Bret What do you expect to see more of from the Blue Jays: Negative regression from their offense or positive regression from their pitching?

9:30

Jeff Sullivan: The offense is good. The pitching shouldn’t be this terrible, and it won’t continue to be this terrible after the rotation arrangement is changed. Right now, as a starter, Sanchez sucks. I still like Norris, but maybe he’ll take his time. They won’t let the pitching stay this bad without personnel changes

9:31	Comment From Reef Is kendry morales’ start for real?

9:31	Jeff Sullivan: I think he’s back to being a real hitter

9:31	Comment From Jeff in T.O. Go Sens????

9:31	Jeff Sullivan: we’re gonna win the Cup!

9:32	Comment From Overreactor Trevor Bauer owns infield fly-ball rate of 40% with bunch of stikeouts. It’s still just 19 IP, but IFFB% and K% stabilize pretty quickly. Interesting, isn’t it?

9:33	Jeff Sullivan: Astros, White Sox, White Sox. Interesting numbers are always interesting, and the whiffs and fly balls follow from the elevated fastballs that Bauer lives on, but we’re talking about three starts and six pop-ups. His command still isn’t good. Look again in a month

9:33	Comment From Jheff Should the Jays still be looking for a 2B or can Devon Travis be decent enough to hold it down?

9:33	Jeff Sullivan: Travis is solid and relatively low-risk

9:33	Jeff Sullivan: I once said the same thing about Maicer Izturis!

9:34	Comment From Phillies113 Every good season needs a villain; that’s why I’m not so bothered that the Royals have decided to adopt this persona. Thoughts?

9:35	Jeff Sullivan: From a fan standpoint, it’s great. It’s objectively stupid and immature, but from here, the Royals have been making things exciting. You watch them flip out and you get an emotional response, which you don’t really usually get in an average baseball game

9:36	Jeff Sullivan: It’s a little like hockey fighting: it shouldn’t exist, and it’s dangerous, but there’s no denying that fights have a lot of fan appeal. Crowds are almost never louder than they are during a fight. The Royals are kind of doing that, with way fewer concussions

9:36	Jeff Sullivan: I hope they stay crazy. I hope they’re the team everybody else hates playing against. It’s stupid and simultaneously good for the entertainment level of the sport

9:36	Comment From D Is it time yet to strike the “right now” from the phrase “Devon Travis is pretty good right now?”

9:37	Jeff Sullivan: No, that much is true, but Devon Travis can be both pretty good right now, and, pretty good

9:37	Comment From Bruce After how many innings is it better to switch to FIP over xFIP when evaluating pitchers

9:37	Jeff Sullivan: More than a full season’s worth

9:38	Comment From Ben Rangers have Darvish, Holland, Harrison, Martin Perez, and Nick Tepesch on the DL. How many current MLB rotations is this better than?

9:38	Jeff Sullivan: More than half?

9:38	Jeff Sullivan: And that doesn’t even include expecting anything much from Harrison

9:39	Jeff Sullivan: It’s so easy to look at where the Rangers have gone wrong with, say, the Choo and Fielder deals, and then you want to say they deserved this. No. Nobody deserves this.

9:40	Comment From Guest Would an elf be better at SS or LF?

9:40	Jeff Sullivan: Altuve was never given the opportunity to play shortstop, so based on that I’m going to guess left field

9:41	Comment From Doug Where did you live freshman year? I want to install a Birthplace of Leone for Third plaque. Go Bantams.

9:42	Jeff Sullivan: North Campus, first level, very last room, across the street from the graveyard.

9:42	Comment From J-Dog Concerned with Jordan Zimmerman? Drop in velocity and further away from Tommy John. Or just a bad first month?

9:44	Jeff Sullivan: Down about two ticks across the board, not yet any signs of game-to-game progress. This is a problem, and really bad news for his upcoming free agency

9:45	Jeff Sullivan: You wonder if this is one of the reasons Zimmermann couldn’t get traded over the winter — perhaps other teams suspected something like this could be coming

9:45	Comment From Ned Yost Thoughts on Yordano Ventura? Intense competitor or slightly crazy? Suspension coming?

9:46

Jeff Sullivan: He pitches with an edge, like most if not all pitchers in the major leagues. Difference being, unlike other guys, Ventura hasn’t quite figured out how to keep his emotions under control. In that way, he’s not different from perhaps the majority of 23-year-olds. It’ll all come with maturity, and the Royals will hope that his maturation process picks up speed

9:47

Comment From Andy
Hi Jeff, you always sign off these chats by saying “have great days.” Does that mean each of us is supposed to have multiple great days until the next chat? Or we’re all collectively supposed to have one great Friday from our own viewpoint? Because I can only have one great day at a time. Please advise.

9:47	Jeff Sullivan: I want you all to have great days, through to the next chat

9:48	Jeff Sullivan: The weekly goal should be six great days, and one kind of lousy day, that allows you to better appreciate the great ones

9:49	Comment From Houzer are the O’s going to find regular at bats for Wieters once he returns?

9:49	Jeff Sullivan: I suspect they could find room around Caleb Joseph, Ryan Lavarnway, and Jimmy Paredes

9:50	Comment From Carl S What’s your favorite quote from a baseball player?

9:50	Jeff Sullivan: “I gained a lot of weight in my country,” [Montero] admitted. “So, now, I’m on a program to lose weight. I’m working really hard to get my weight back. I wasn’t doing nothing (after finishing winter ball), just eating.”

9:50	Comment From Art Vandelay I’ve watched the replay of the “brawl” last night a handful of times, but I have no idea how that escalated so quickly.

9:51	Jeff Sullivan: Samardzija and Cain had something dating back at least to opening day of this year, when the former hit the latter. And when both teams have guys acting aggressively, you have to go out and defend them, and then you’re on edge, waiting for the first shot to be fired, so to speak

9:51	Jeff Sullivan: So then it doesn’t take much more than a few words for the whole thing to erupt

9:52	Comment From Reggie C. Do you think Arod has a shot at 25 homers with a .250 avg? His past couple homers have been old Arod’ish.

9:52	Jeff Sullivan: He looks good!

9:53	Comment From Erich I know, April and all, but with a strong start so far, a new curveball, and reports of a slight uptick in velo, do you buy Jimmy Nelson beating his projections the rest of the season?

9:54	Jeff Sullivan: Isn’t his velocity a little down?

9:54	Jeff Sullivan: But yeah, I think he can do a bit better. I don’t buy him as an ace, but I buy him as a real starter

9:55	Comment From _David_ Could you give an estimate of the percentage breakdown in first base playing time for the Mariners, ROS? LoMo, Jesus, Quentin, Kivlehan?

9:56

Jeff Sullivan: Quentin’s going to have to be a quick decision. Has an opt-out for like two weeks from now. I don’t think he ends up a regular — the team still remembers that Morrison started poorly last year. I think it’s mostly Morrison, and then second half brings some Montero/Kivlehan spice notes

9:56	Jeff Sullivan: Kivlehan could end up more a replacement for Weeks/Ruggiano

9:57	Comment From Also Dan Would Yordano Ventura be acting this way if he played in the NL and had to bat? I think this is a good argument against the DH

9:57	Jeff Sullivan: He doesn’t seem particularly rational, soooo

9:58	Comment From Chester Do you think Alex Guerrero should have a more regular role on the Dodgers team? If you don’t want to replace Juan Uribes corpse, why not replace Carl Crawfords corpse? The Dodgers problem seems to be scoring runs, which is something that Guerrero could definitely help with…

9:59	Jeff Sullivan: The Dodgers are too deep in big-league caliber players. People like to say that’s a good problem to have, and it is a good problem to have, but it’s still a problem. Someone or someones need to go. And other teams aren’t really much for trading this early in the season

9:59	Jeff Sullivan: It’ll be a credit to Mattingly if he’s able to keep this all together for the next several months