Jeff Sullivan FanGraphs Chat — 4/29/14

9:07	Jeff Sullivan: Hey guys. I’m pretty badly under the weather, so I’m probably not going to be on the ball with regard to a lot of baseball questions.

9:07	Jeff Sullivan: So let’s deal with some baseball questions.

9:07	Comment From Jeff 83-79 a plausible record for the Mets?

9:08	Jeff Sullivan: Unlikely but plausible, especially if they start to get more aggressive with promotions later on

9:08	Comment From TKDC Over/Under 25 strikeouts in Braves/Marlins game tonight?

9:08	Jeff Sullivan: I’m going to be a lil bitch and say under

9:08	Jeff Sullivan: If they go over again, it’s going to be harder and harder to justify my post in retrospect

9:09	Comment From juan pierres mustache bryce harper brings out the hot take in all of us

9:09	Jeff Sullivan: It’s more of a positive trait than a negative trait. But it could easily lead to some Harper fatigue down the road

9:09	Jeff Sullivan: In this instance, it’s partially Matt Williams’ fault

9:10	Comment From Awake in Seattle Hi Jeff. Thanks for doing the chat today! I asked Dan this question yesterday and was hoping for your take as well. Fast forward a month from now, do you think Abraham Almonte and Brad Miller will be playing in the majors or AAA?

9:10	Jeff Sullivan: I’d say the most likely thing is that one of them will be in Triple-A. But they’ve been Triple-A players for a month now, and not even good ones

9:10	Comment From Pietraynee Is the Pirates’ incredibly low BABIP indicative of better things to come for them?

9:11	Jeff Sullivan: Yeah, that’s going to pick up, probably quite a bit

9:11	Jeff Sullivan: Especially when Polanco joins the roster!

9:12	Jeff Sullivan: I’ll say this much:

9:13	Jeff Sullivan: Last year, the four worst April BABIPs belonged to the Blue Jays, White Sox, Cubs, and Marlins. They all finished the year in the bottom eight. But they also all improved, and of course April had some influence in that final ranking

9:13	Jeff Sullivan: Fair to conclude the Pirates are a below-average BABIP team; fair to assume they’re not close to this far below average

9:13	Comment From toot toot will Fernandez/Wood II live up to the greatness of the first game, or will it disappoint like so many sequels do?

9:13	Jeff Sullivan: All extreme performances, good and bad, regress

9:14	Comment From Guest Why aren’t K and BB park factors broken out by handedness on FG?

9:14	Jeff Sullivan: Guessing Appelman figured there wouldn’t be big effects. They are broken out by handedness on StatCorner http://statcorner.com/team2…

9:14	Comment From Just Haranging Around Chances the Indians are a playoff team this season?

9:14	Jeff Sullivan: http://www.fangraphs.com/co…

9:15	Jeff Sullivan: !

9:15	Jeff Sullivan: That’s not meant to be snarky — the math is just smarter than I am

9:16	Comment From Tampa Tommy Should we be concerned about Grant Balfour yet? Who would be most likely to replace him as Tampa’s closer if the situation arose?

9:16	Jeff Sullivan: Something isn’t quite right. Odd to see his slider rate so high.

9:18	Jeff Sullivan: Zone rate has been dropping for a few years. Might just be approaching the end of the line. Next guy would probably be…McGee?

9:18	Comment From Just Haranging Around Over under 7 Ks for the COrey Kluber Society today?

9:18	Jeff Sullivan: 6 or 7, exactly

9:19	Comment From Billy Beanpole What do we need to see from Sonny Gray before he enters the conversation as one of the game’s top hurlers?

9:19	Jeff Sullivan: Another 20-25 starts. But on ability, there are zero questions

9:19	Comment From Brew Be honest: If Carlos Gomez hugged you, would you cry? If so, would they be tears of joy, sadness or something else entirely?

9:19	Jeff Sullivan: Depends entirely on the circumstances of the hug

9:20	Jeff Sullivan: Am I in desperate need of consolation? Did I win an expensive bet? Was Gomez hiding in the shadows as I walked home in the dark alone?

9:20	Comment From Ephus We’re all watching Ventura vs. Buehrle Thursday right? Fastest avg FA vs. second slowest (Buehrle is only behind Dickey).

9:20	Jeff Sullivan: Probably not everybody, no

9:21	Comment From Rick When are the Reds going to send Billy Hamilton down? Only value is in leading off and he’s only walked twice. He doesn’t even lead the league in SB. Terrible. Think he sticks all year and if so, what do you think his line looks like?

9:22	Jeff Sullivan: I’ll say this for him: last 47 plate appearances, he’s got a .326 OBP. So maybe he’s not as utterly hopeless as his sad overall line

9:22	Jeff Sullivan: Or maybe he is. I’m sure the Reds have already given him some thought, and if he doesn’t improve, they’ll start having that discussion in earnest in the middle of May or so

9:23	Comment From zmiko Over/under 5 war for Charlie Blackmon

9:23	Jeff Sullivan: Barely under, but he only has 3 WAR left to get in five months

9:24	Comment From TJ I know it’s early & a very small sample size, but George Springer looks just awful. Projections made it seem like he was a lock for a 20/20 season with a .240-.260 avg…I’m not buying. What do you think?

9:24	Jeff Sullivan: Nobody with such an extremely low minor-league contact rate is a lock for that kind of performance

9:25

Jeff Sullivan: But we know, without doubt, the talent is there, and Springer’s discipline hasn’t been a problem — he just hasn’t shown the power yet. He’ll start to show the power, and he doesn’t have to connect with all that many swings to drive the overall numbers up. He should end slugging somewhere around .400, and then next year he’ll be significantly better than that

9:26	Comment From Bret Massive news out of Jays-land yesterday! Ryan Goins demoted to AAA and new stud second baseman Chris Getz to be promoted. Should the other AL East teams just quit now?

9:26	Jeff Sullivan: Today I learned Ryan Goins hit a home run

9:26	Jeff Sullivan: Who says the Jays aren’t doing anything to address their problem at second?

9:27	Comment From Rated Rookie Vin Scully is the truth. The solo broadcaster format needs to be copied more widely. *Hawk Harreslon notwithstanding.

9:27	Jeff Sullivan: The problem is that most broadcasters aren’t capable of that

9:27	Comment From Mike who should be working If you truly disliked someone you worked with in corporate America and knew something that could get them fired. Would you call HR anonymously?

9:27	Jeff Sullivan: Probably not

9:28	Comment From GSon Major changes in roster make up, starting rotation, batting order.. are being contemplated by several teams.. Without naming the teams, is it too early to start making wholesale changes?.. Who should make drastic changes?

9:28	Jeff Sullivan: Not too early for, say, the Diamondbacks, whose start has been utterly disastrous

9:28	Jeff Sullivan: But for most teams, April’s basically just a warm-up. The overwhelming majority of the time, you don’t want to encourage any major shakeups so soon

9:28	Comment From Jays fan Goins down, Getz up…what would you do about the black hole that is the Blue Jays second base options.

9:29	Jeff Sullivan: Make a deal two months ago

9:29	Comment From Harry Porter Should I jump off the Brad Miller boat yet?

9:29	Jeff Sullivan: Only if you can swim

9:30	Comment From rockpile (oops, sorry) – Hey Jeff, what could Alexei Ramirez return in a trade in season.

9:30	Jeff Sullivan: Not very much, assuming he hasn’t actually doubled his true-talent ISO

9:31	Jeff Sullivan: A package headlined by something like a second-tier prospect.

9:31

Comment From Jonathan
The Brewers are winning a few games over what their Pythag would suggest is reasonable. However, they are doing it how you might expect: with a top-ranked (by SIERA) bullpen to help with close games. Do you think that Pythag is actually indicative this early in the season or does it need to wait a few months to be useful?

9:32	Jeff Sullivan: I like when Dave does wOBA differentials. Pythag still involves a luck element, with regard to actually scoring and preventing runs, and you can strip that stuff away and get a more overall feel

9:33	Jeff Sullivan: The Brewers have been average offensively, above-average defensively, and above-average on the mound. Given that their hot start can’t be taken away, they do look like a legitimate contender now

9:34	Comment From Tom This is probably a dumb question, but last I checked 6 NL teams had a >50% chance to go to the playoffs, per Fangraphs. There are only 5 spots so how is this possible?

9:34	Jeff Sullivan: Difference between >50% and 100%, right?

9:35	Jeff Sullivan: Things that individually have encouraging odds won’t and can’t all happen. If you have two teams at 50%, then only 1 out of 4 times will both end up in the playoffs

9:35	Comment From juan pierres mustache under the weather is a weird phrase. i’m gonna start saying i’m under the weather when i’m outside and it’s raining

9:35	Jeff Sullivan: In that case I think you’re within the weather

9:36	Comment From Just Haranging Around What is the league average HR/FB%? Brandon Belt is above 26%. He’s walking less, striking out more than he ever has. Are we seeing a Longoria-esque, sacrifice of BA for Power or is this simply a product of SSS?

9:36	Jeff Sullivan: 10.1% for non-pitchers

9:38	Jeff Sullivan: It seems like Belt has been selling out a little bit for power in the early going, but that doesn’t mean it’s going to continue. His contact rate should go up, his homer rate should go down, and his doubles rate should go up

9:38	Jeff Sullivan: Last year, 43 of 60 extra-base hits were doubles or triples. This year he’s at two out of nine

9:39	Comment From Prich USS Mariner is down… 🙁

9:39	Jeff Sullivan: It’ll be back. Derek is just somehow still in charge of the account that pays for the domain

9:40	Comment From Jays fan Is Marcus Stroman an upgrade on Dustin McGowan? Happ isn’t but I bet they try him first…

9:41	Jeff Sullivan: Yeah, he presumably is, given McGowan’s lack of endurance. And didn’t they just line Stroman and McGowan up to pitch on the same day?

9:41	Jeff Sullivan: Seems like Stroman could be as little as a week or two off

9:42	Comment From Stanatee the Manatee What are the odds the Cards sending Wong down is something other than a panic move made in desperation?

9:42	Jeff Sullivan: Very high. Since when do we expect the Cardinals of all organizations to make desperate panic moves?

9:43	Jeff Sullivan: The upside of having Mark Ellis around is you have a known veteran entity in case the young guys needs some more work

9:43	Comment From GB Do you think the Indians can hit the WildCard ?

9:43	Jeff Sullivan: Of course

9:43	Comment From Anahigh Frieri…when does he get his job back? Sold high and traded Roark to stash him on my bench.

9:43	Jeff Sullivan: Within a couple weeks

9:44	Comment From CF Bobby O Does it look like the Marlins knew what they were doing by bringing up Ozuna too early last year?

9:44	Jeff Sullivan: I think it wasn’t a terrible idea, but he’s still not a particularly good player and it’s not like there were quality Marlins standing in his way in 2013

9:45	Comment From Joey Beans Is Tanaka just destined to be homer prone? Will it keep him from the upper tier of pitchers?

9:45	Jeff Sullivan: Well, even with the homers, he has a barely-2 ERA and a sub-3 FIP

9:45	Jeff Sullivan: And fly balls won’t keep leaving the yard at this rate

9:46	Jeff Sullivan: I think he has a somewhat flat fastball and a tendency to leave the occasional splitter up, and the conseq

9:47

Jeff Sullivan: …and the consequences can be longballs. I’m not surprised to see that Tanaka has given up his share of dingers, but when a guy has eight strikeouts for every walk, I’m not going to be too concerned about the balls in play (or out of play, as it were). Tanaka doesn’t allow that many opportunity for a home run in the first place

9:47	Comment From Walt Do you see the Mariners pulling a Griffey’s-Last-Year kind of thing with Ichiro?

9:47	Jeff Sullivan: No, that ought to be done with

9:48	Comment From benj So last year Jesus Montero Completely Fell Apart. In 2012 Ackley Completely Fell Apart. This yeah Brad Miller has Completely Fallen Apart. Any early guesses on who will collapse for the Mariners next year?

9:48	Jeff Sullivan: Chris Taylor?

9:48	Comment From Jays fan Who is the best team in the AL East?

9:49	Jeff Sullivan: I still want to say the Red Sox, but it’s by a very narrow margin

9:50	Comment From Daniel I want to see what defensive value a player brings to the table. What stats should I look at?

9:50	Jeff Sullivan: UZR/150 to evaluate within a position, Def to evaluate over all positions

9:51	Comment From James Will there be an NL pitcher who finishes the season with more home runs than one of the everyday players for the Royals?

9:51	Jeff Sullivan: Travis Wood probably has the best chance to out-homer Escobar or Aoki

9:52	Comment From zack who posts a higher WAR this year: Prince Fielder or BJ Upton?

9:52	Jeff Sullivan: oh my good god

9:52	Jeff Sullivan: Fielder by a hair?

9:52	Comment From TJ Should the people clamoring for Gregory Polanco’s call up just look to George Springer to realize that AAA numbers do not translate to MLB success?

9:53	Jeff Sullivan: Polanco and Springer arrive at their numbers in very different ways. Polanco, for example, hits the baseball.

9:54	Jeff Sullivan: But in general, you’re right, that sometimes even the best prospects in baseball have a difficult adjustment period. Nothing about Polanco makes for an automatic improvement. Odds are pretty good, though

9:54	Comment From A Mariners fan who asks other questions Thoughts on Salazar’s bounce back start? Signs of things to come, or just wishful thinking?

9:55	Jeff Sullivan: well he wasn’t going to keep posting an 8 ERA

9:55	Jeff Sullivan: It’s very very good to see him do that, to see him pitch more like he pitched in 2013, and Salazar certainly isn’t a disaster. But he needs to string a few of these together

9:56	Comment From Just Haranging Around If Bryce Harper played in the NFL he’d be a “scrappy,” “all-heart,” “locker room guy” who does “all the little things” that make his “teammates love him.” He’d also end every season on IR.

9:56	Jeff Sullivan: he should be that guy in MLB