Jeff Sullivan FanGraphs Chat — 4/3/15

April 3, 2015

9:09	Jeff Sullivan: Hey guys, welcome to live baseball chat

9:09	Jeff Sullivan: Usually my late excuses are a bunch of bullshit, but this time I’m late because I had to go and jump a friend’s car battery

9:09	Jeff Sullivan: So I’m basically a hero. No criticism allowed

9:11	Comment From John are you going to chat for 6 hours like sporer?

9:11	Jeff Sullivan: Dear god that sounds like an absolute nightmare

9:11	Jeff Sullivan: Although we will chat, as a staff, for like 13 hours on Monday

9:12	Comment From Chris Jeff! Baseball! But perhaps more importantly – how was your trip to Patagonia?

9:12	Jeff Sullivan: Trip of a lifetime, stupid-lucky with the weather. Everybody should go, although not all at once

9:12	Comment From Vslyke What do you think of the Cahill deal? Seems like a good buy low deal.

9:12	Jeff Sullivan: Not much harm, and I’m interested to see how Cahill does with a different coaching staff and pitching philosophy. Odds are, though, he’s just going to stay a No. 4 or No. 5

9:13	Comment From _David_ The Angels just lost millions in mid-season upgrade budget from having to pay Hamilton, right?

9:13	Jeff Sullivan: On the other hand, they’re going to spend those millions on Josh Hamilton, who is as talented as anyone else they might be able to find

9:14	Comment From adam AL batting title?

9:14	Jeff Sullivan: I like Michael Brantley for this one

9:14	Jeff Sullivan: Well, no, that suggests I’ve thought about the AL batting title before. I don’t care. Want to make that clear. But if I had to pick, it’s Brantley

9:15	Comment From dom If any team could win 96 games in the AL East, it will be ______, because _________________ went right

9:15	Jeff Sullivan: Boston, everything

9:15	Comment From Kirk Doesn’t it suck that you’re back in the states? I like South America much better.

9:15	Jeff Sullivan: Definitely not ready to be back, but I do enjoy taking showers and being able to flush toilet paper, so there are ups and downs

9:15	Comment From dom so is Gausman going to be a good starting pitcher or what

9:16	Jeff Sullivan: I think he becomes pretty good, but I don’t think he gets consistently dominant. I’d like to see him change what he does with his fastball

9:16	Comment From Bruce A battery is about 7 inches tall. Did you Ollie it, or just jump it with your feet?

9:16	Jeff Sullivan: Stepped right over it. Weird request

9:16	Comment From Marc Hero Jeff, I need your help! How well do Buerhle, Dickey, Hutchison and Norris have to perform if I can’t shake the feeling that Sanchez will be replacement level for the season to be interesting come late in the year. 10-12 WAR between those four?

9:17	Jeff Sullivan: If Sanchez is bad, and routinely bad, he won’t last the season. They’ll go to Estrada or one of the other guys or a trade acquisition. No need to have a replacement-level starter all season long

9:17	Comment From Erix Jeff, tell us many stories from your trip!

9:17

9:17	Jeff Sullivan: Go see the world

9:18	Comment From Jim Greetings from Summit Street. Go Bantams.

9:18	Jeff Sullivan: I wonder if you have my old mailbox

9:18	Comment From GSon Car Battery.. yeah.. that doesn’t sound like BS.. Come on Jeff…admit it.. you’re emulating your hero, Dave…

9:18	Jeff Sullivan: I’m the OG of being late for live baseball chats

9:19

Comment From mtsw
Everyone thinks the Orioles are crazy if Ubaldo or Miguel Gonzalez is the 5th starter and Gausman gets sent to AAA or the ‘pen. Are they crazy? Ubaldo has looked good in Spring Training and Gausman stubbornly still only has two good pitches. Maybe they’re crazy like some sort of sly animal instead?

9:19	Jeff Sullivan: You know what the Orioles are going to need more than? Five starting pitchers. Same for everybody. The decisions made now mean a little bit, but if Gausman is good and Ubaldo is bad, things will reverse in a hurry. Depth is critical, and Gausman counts toward that end

9:20	Comment From Erik So, it’s no Kris Bryant situation, but what could be the rationale of keeping Victorino up and sending Rusney down? Are the Sox just hoping to market Shane and ditch him ASAP?

9:20

Jeff Sullivan: Injury set Rusney back a little bit, and they want him to get regular reps before bringing him up to the majors. Truncated spring training. There’s clearly some strategy going on here, but it also makes some sense, and Castillo is still getting paid. He’ll be back in a month when someone gets hurt or underperforms

9:21	Comment From Kevin Gausman Is it fair for me to start the year in AAA Norfolk or should I be in the rotation for the O’s?

9:21	Jeff Sullivan: If you have to ask, you know the answer

9:21	Comment From daneyko Souza was bad in spring. What to expect now?

9:21	Jeff Sullivan: Hitting

9:21	Jeff Sullivan: Pete Kozma’s hitting .408

9:23	Jeff Sullivan: Brett Gardner basically has Souza’s OPS. You know how this goes. There’s a little bit of signal in here but the noise overwhelms it. It’s like having a conversation at a Pantera concert. You know someone is saying something but you’ll be damned if you can make out what it is

9:23	Comment From Chris Jeff – I owned Kris Bryant in two different keeper leagues (both keep forever) and I decided to “hedge” his future by keeping him in a 12-teamer and trading him in my 14-teamer. I was able to land Urias, Moncada, and Addison Russell. What say you good sir?

9:23	Jeff Sullivan: These are decisions that you made

9:23	Jeff Sullivan: I acknowledge your decisions

9:24	Comment From daneyko Archie Bradley in rotation. Good chance to finish under 3,60 ERA?

9:24	Jeff Sullivan: Nope

9:24	Jeff Sullivan: In fact I would say bad chance

9:24	Comment From dom what is the prettiest team uniform

9:24	Jeff Sullivan: Giants off-white, if they still wear those

9:24	Comment From mtsw Just got my first set of Yankees tickets in the mail. Ticket design features Gehrig, Munson, Berra. I should read this as the Yankees admitting to their fans they won’t contend this season, right?

9:24	Jeff Sullivan: Or maybe they’re bringing back Gehrig, Munson, and Berra

9:25	Comment From GSon Which division are you most comfortable with prediction the champ?.. NL East? Which Division are you least comfortable with & why..

9:25	Jeff Sullivan: Still the NL East, despite the Nationals’ injuries.

9:25	Jeff Sullivan: I’m least comfortable with both of the centrals. Either division could be won by three or four different teams and they’re all so close in my head

9:26	Jeff Sullivan: When asked, I’ve volunteered the Indians and the Cubs. Do not mistake these picks for representing strong feelings

9:27	Comment From Gregory What is your stance on the “Do teams have a moral obligation to disclose their medical research?” question

9:28

Jeff Sullivan: Too complicated to get into in a chat, and the instinct is to say it’s a case-by-case thing, but as a general foundational principle, I think health is more important than competition in a business. I’d rather see the most people healthy possible than one team win more baseball games because it knows how to keep its pitchers from getting shredded

9:29	Comment From dave lots of talk/hype about the indians rotation these days. How do you rank them?

9:29	Jeff Sullivan: High. They’re awesome!

9:29	Comment From mtsw Does Josh Hamilton’s suspension being overturned imperil the pending handover of our legal system to benevolent sports commissioners?

9:30	Jeff Sullivan: I know I was gone for a couple weeks, but nothing was really overturned, right? It was simply determined that Hamilton didn’t violate the policy.

9:31	Comment From Padraic Obdubel Herrera. A chance to be a real player? (non-fantasy question),

9:32	Jeff Sullivan: Probably not. I wrote about Billy Burns for JABO — don’t know when that’s going up — and I give Burns a chance because he has a true 80 skill. Herrera doesn’t. He seems like a more or less average runner, so when you combine that with the absence of any real power…

9:33	Comment From John you like the mets deals for lefties last week? are they really going to keep three in the pen?

9:34	Jeff Sullivan: As a lefty, Torres is more of a righty. Blevins fits the more classic profile. The Mets didn’t give up nothing, but they are close enough to the wild card that it makes sense to focus on little upgrades like this

9:35	Comment From dom if prime Joe Mauer had billy hamilton speed could he hit .400

9:36

Jeff Sullivan: Topped out at .365. The difference, that year, between Mauer and .400 was 18 hits. Figure the speed only changes things on grounders. Mauer hit .276 on grounders. Add 18 hits, and it would’ve been .357. Billy Hamilton hit .296 on grounders. Basically, no, I don’t think it would’ve happened

9:36	Comment From Time to go home yet? Jeff pick the Indians to be your WS winner when you guys make your predictions. You’ll look brilliant in October!

9:36	Jeff Sullivan: I might’ve done that. I think I at least picked them to reach the World Series

9:36	Comment From Mike Olt Would the world tip off its axis if everyone went to patagonia at once TIA

9:37	Jeff Sullivan: It’s a big place, but, not that big a place

9:37	Comment From Robert2TheMax I recently had a fight with a roommate that I hate. Things are now very awkward around the apartment. What’s the worst living situation that you have ever heard of?

9:37	Jeff Sullivan: WWI

9:37	Comment From Ted Are the Reds going to use Cingrani in long relief or is he the 8th inning set up man?

9:37	Jeff Sullivan: He ought to be entrusted with getting more than 3 outs

9:38	Comment From Seb How did Atlanta get so bad so fast?

9:38	Jeff Sullivan: They traded Jason Heyward, Justin Upton, and Evan Gattis

9:39	Comment From Kirk Which MLB player do you think owns the most extravagant house? I recently read about how that Blue Jays pitcher lives in his van often.

9:40	Jeff Sullivan: It’s probably Alex Rodriguez. I think it was Derek Jeter, but now he’s retired

9:40	Comment From adam Best WAR: Saunders, Bogaerts, Garcia, Castellanos, Odor?

9:40	Jeff Sullivan: Bogaerts

9:40	Comment From dom true false: Bryce Harper is as likely to hit 45 home runs this year as anyone

9:40	Jeff Sullivan: False

9:40	Comment From mtsw Will American society collapse with Josh Hamilton free to roam the streets again?

9:41	Jeff Sullivan: The city of Anaheim is worse for American society than the freedom or lack thereof of Josh Hamilton

9:41

Comment From _David_
Theory about why the shift hasn’t decreased BABIP, probably already thought of and discredited: Players who are susceptible to being shifted take a more all or nothing approach, so balls not hit into the shift are hit harder and go for more hits, leading to little overall change in BABIP. Of course the increased K’s lead to less offense and make the shift work.

9:42

Jeff Sullivan: Balls not hit into the shift would frequently be balls hit the other way, and those tend to be mis-hit. It’s really hard to hit a strong groundball the other way. There’s a clear, apparent decline in BABIP for shifted players. I think you’re just seeing that shifts still make up the minority of alignments, and a lot of batted balls go right over them. What we don’t have is what the league BABIP would be with everything the same, but absent shifts.

9:43	Comment From _David_ Horrible, terrible thought, so brace yourself: Felix’s elbow MRI that led to the 8th year contract provision…That wasn’t similar to what they say in Aiken’s elbow before it blew up, was it?

9:43	Jeff Sullivan: No way to possibly know

9:44	Jeff Sullivan: Literally every single pitcher has wear and tear in his UCL. Pitching is bad for the UCL. So Felix’s UCL is certainly damaged to some extent. But it’s impossible to know if it will ever be sufficiently damaged to require intervention

9:44	Jeff Sullivan: Aiken has never demonstrated Felix’s durability

9:44	Comment From Jimmer Watching the Orioles/Pirates game on MLB Network earlier this week and the announcers said, and I quote, ‘We know that all of the Sabermetricians have put out numbers over the last few years showing how strike zones have continued to decrease in size’

9:44	Jeff Sullivan: Announcing is hard

9:45	Comment From What are the chances Mookie Betts plays 5 games at 2B this year to qualify at 2B in Yahoo leagues next year? What are the chances Mookie Betts plays 5 games at 2B this year to qualify at 2B in Yahoo leagues next year?

9:45	Jeff Sullivan: I hate this question

9:45

Comment From Erasmoooo
Were the Mariners to stash Erasmo Ramirez in the back of the pen for this first week or so of the season, do you think they could have gotten more out of that trade? Seems like it was so obvious that the Mariners had to make a deal that they they had a weak bargaining position. Or, is Mike Montgomery the reality of what Erasmo was worth?

9:46	Jeff Sullivan: More or less what he was worth. Also talented, also frustrating, worse overall but comes with an option. No one would’ve caved and given up a lot more in the middle of April

9:46	Jeff Sullivan: With that said, I do think Erasmo has a real chance to be something in Tampa Bay

9:46	Comment From Kirk What would your fantasy baseball look like? Like, if you got to design a baseball, what would it look like? I think you could come up with some cool designs.

9:47	Jeff Sullivan: I’d have several different designs — maybe, say, six or 10 of them — and then I’d use them all, and I’d track offense levels with each ball type. It would be fascinating to see what designs might somehow increase or decrease pitch visibility, and therefore hitter production

9:47	Jeff Sullivan: Would hitters do better or worse against a baseball that looks like a grapefruit than a regular baseball? Today, we don’t know the answer. But we could! It’s human testing, but in a mostly harmless way

9:48	Jeff Sullivan: I’d also have one strobe-light baseball just to fuck with guys

9:50	Comment From L. Scott Have umpires “shrunk” the strike zone in spring training games? Do you forecast a minor or major uptick in walks this season?

9:50	Jeff Sullivan: Last year, spring training 3.1 BB/9 7.4 K/9

9:50	Jeff Sullivan: This year, spring training 2.9 BB/9 7.4 K/9

9:51	Jeff Sullivan: Don’t expect anything dramatic. No policy changes have been implemented

9:51	Comment From Big Rob Is there a post anywhere explaining how to gauge a pitchers change-up and how effective it is? I’ve heard it’s velo and movement based correct?

9:52

Jeff Sullivan: Well, that’s two-thirds of what pitching is: velocity, movement, and location. The reality of things is that this is really hard to evaluate with any kinds of general rules. Most pitchers want to keep their changeups down, so, you look for that. Most pitchers want to throw their changeups with the same motions as their fastballs, so, you look for that. The best and simplest thing to do might be to just look at both pitcher success and changeup rate. If a good pitcher throws a lot of changeups, it’s probably a good changeup

9:54	Comment From mtsw What percentage (approximately) of left-handed batters advantage in not grounding into double plays is attributable to being slightly closer to first base versus more pulled grounders rolling into the outfield as the first baseman has to play closer to the bag with a runner on?

9:54	Jeff Sullivan: I have to imagine it’s almost all about the second one. The first one is so, so small a thing. But, double plays come on grounders. The overwhelming majority of grounders are pulled. Righties pull grounders to shortstops. Lefties pull grounders toward a hole in the infield

9:55	Comment From _David_ What is the margin of error in projecting teenage prospects on raw skills, i.e, what are the odds Alex Jackson turns into Bryce Harper?

9:55	Jeff Sullivan: Bryce Harper has had 80 power since he was in high school. There’s no missing that, and there’s no suddenly developing that

9:56	Comment From Ben Which orgs you think are particularly good/bad at player development?

9:56	Jeff Sullivan: The Cardinals have long been the gold standard

9:56	Jeff Sullivan: My assumption now is that Arizona is going to suck. I imagine they’re going to suck at a lot of things

9:57	Jeff Sullivan: I’ve heard concerns about how Milwaukee tries to develop hitters. Ditto the Marlins and pitchers.

9:57	Comment From adam Higher WAR: Soler, Grandal, d’Arnaud, Polanco, or Pederson

9:57	Jeff Sullivan: Grandal with framing, Soler without

9:58	Comment From Robert2TheMax I am looking for a Canadian team to bandwagon in the NHL playoffs. Which one should it be. I do not follow hockey.

9:58	Jeff Sullivan: It looks like only Vancouver and Montreal will make it 🙁

9:59	Jeff Sullivan: although Ottawa has lost just five of its last 22 games!