Jeff Sullivan FanGraphs Chat — 5/25/18

Jeff Sullivan: Hello friends

Jeff Sullivan: Welcome to Friday baseball chat

Jeff Sullivan: Sorry about that delay — very much podcasting this morning and afternoon for some reason

Put me in coach: Worse contract at this point – Heyward or Pujols

Jeff Sullivan: Pujols. Heyward, despite everything, still isn’t an overall negative

Jeff Sullivan: It is too bad though — earlier this season, it seemed like Heyward was showing some real signs of life. They’ve all but disappeared, although in fairness he has experienced a concussion

Jack: So who should pick up Hanley Ramirez for league minimum after he’s released? The Rays could use another right-handed 1B/DH type who isn’t Rob Refsnyder to spell Miller against lefties. Do you think Ramirez has anything left?

Jeff Sullivan: I don’t know what the point of Ramirez would be for anyone anymore

Jeff Sullivan: He doesn’t field, he doesn’t run, and he’s no longer much of a hitter. I know that he can still generate some impressive peak exit velocities, but in terms of value, this isn’t a desirable or unusual skillset

Jeff Sullivan: Refsnyder probably isn’t worse than Ramirez these days, especially given that he can somewhat play the field

Sean: What kind of impact do you see from Alex Reyes this year? Also will he have an innings limit?

Jeff Sullivan: I remember reading that the Cardinals had something around 100 innings in mind. That was a few months ago but I doubt much has changed

Jeff Sullivan: The Cardinals, per usual, have assembled an impressive amount of depth. And that’s going to be useful over the coming months as they try to balance innings among their young starters, from Reyes to Weaver to Flaherty

Jeff Sullivan: Reyes should find his way close to that innings target. And he’s a big reason why the Cardinals are a very legitimate contender in the division

Put on your tinfoil hats: MLB released a statement that the balls aren’t juiced, but something is up with the aerodynamic properties. Some have suggested that every team should have a humidor. The official report mentioned that they have “…not yet succeeded in definitively explaining the cause of the decreased drag coefficient…”. Is this just a ploy by Big Humidor to boost sales?

Jeff Sullivan: Follow the money. It all goes back to Halliburton

Jeff Sullivan: Realistically it’s kind of surprising there isn’t already a league-wide humidor policy

Jeff Sullivan: I know in a certain sense baseball thrives on everyone having a unique playing environment, but there’s no reason not to ensure greater baseball consistency ball to ball and park to park

Parts + Gleyber: Does this spell the end of Hanley’s 30-30 comeback tour? Where does he end up?

Jeff Sullivan: I’m sure he’ll end up with some kind of job but his regular playing days are over

Jeff Sullivan: Baseball doesn’t give that many extra chances to declining veterans these days

Jeff Sullivan: Why pick up Hanley Ramirez if you could try to deal for Jabari Blash or something?

Jeff Sullivan: I really like Jabari Blash

The Tone: Jeff! Just an announcement: based on the completely cherry-picked threshold of 100 min. PAs, Brandon Nimmo is third in MLB in wRC+. Also Ohtani is seventh, which is whacko.

Jeff Sullivan: Brandon Nimmo is good!

Jeff Sullivan: Not .393 BABIP good, but he’s a good player. And if you look closely, you can see a lot more fly balls all of a sudden

Jeff Sullivan: Granted, that’s come with an unsettling increase in his pop-ups, but that could settle down

HappyFunBall: Good morning Jeff! Do you suppose that the Mets will have enough patience to wait out the waiver process before picking up Hanley? Or will their washed up slugger fetish compel them to eat the contract as well?

Jeff Sullivan: Thank goodness for them that Wilmer Flores has a three-digit wRC+

James: How much have analytics affected baserunning tactics? I feel like teams should still be more aggressive, especially with 2 outs.

Jeff Sullivan: Let’s try to take a look!

Jeff Sullivan: I’ll compare 2018 to, I don’t know…1998?

Jeff Sullivan: 1998 feels pre-analytics

Jeff Sullivan: In 1998, the average runner moved up an extra base 42% of the time

Jeff Sullivan: In 2018, the average runner has moved up an extra base…42% of the time

Jeff Sullivan: Stolen base success rate has gone up four percentage points

Jeff Sullivan: I don’t have an easy way of breaking this down by outs

Jeff Sullivan: I think that analytics has had a definite effect on steals, but I don’t know about the rest of baserunning. Feels like that’s still steeped in old-school mentality, because we haven’t come up with much of anything better

Stuart: Should Padres fan have any hope for Margot offensively? Slump or is this just who he is offensively?

Jeff Sullivan: Well, he’s definitely not *this* — his true talent isn’t a 47 wRC+

Jeff Sullivan: His career mark, though, is 81. And that feels realistic to me, because he doesn’t have a standout skill. He’s not that powerful, so it’s going to be hard for him to draw walks. It’s a good thing he’s strong in the field

Jeff Sullivan: But ultimately that Padres outfield picture isn’t as crowded as it seems. There are players who could stand to lose some playing time

Ross: So, since starting 12-5 the Blue Jays have gone 11-22, just wrapping up a 1-6 home stand against the A’s and Angels. Lot of ugly, blowout losses, too. Do you still see them as a strong Wild Card contender?

Jeff Sullivan: I do see them as a contender, because I don’t think they’re actually worse than the Mariners are. But I’ve been counting on Sanchez and Stroman and they just haven’t stepped up. Stroman, of course, is sidelined, and Sanchez has improved his changeup while making everything else a lot worse

Jeff Sullivan: Guerrero should provide a jolt pretty soon. And some of this has just been a function of the schedule. Early on, the Jays got to beat up on the Rangers, Orioles, Royals, and White Sox

Henry: What do you think is the Red Sox plan now that they DFA’s Hanley?

Jeff Sullivan: I’m not sure there’s much here to overthink

Jeff Sullivan: Ramirez was not good, and he’s gone now that Pedroia is back

Jeff Sullivan: So now, instead of Pedroia stealing a bunch of playing time from Nunez, Nunez will get to play a little more

Jeff Sullivan: Maybe Moreland gets a slightly longer leash against lefties, too. With Ramirez’s lack of flexibility, this makes enough sense

Gleyb Ruth: What will/should the Yankees do when Bird comes back?  Austin has been playing well and Walker is hot lately.

Jeff Sullivan: Because Austin can be optioned to the minors, it seems like the easiest thing to do is just send him to Triple-A for a little while

Jeff Sullivan: He does still have a sub-.300 OBP after all

Jeff Sullivan: Neil Walker has had a really strong May after a godawful April, so I don’t think the Yankees would designate him for assignment just yet

Jeff Sullivan: I’ll say 75% Austin goes to Triple-A, 20% Walker leaves, 5% mystery move

Jeff Sullivan: I’ve considered that Walker might make a little sense for the Mariners but I doubt they want to just throw Gordon back into the outfield again and he’s not out long-term

Josh Donaldson: What the hell’s going on with me?

Jeff Sullivan: Kind of looks like Goldschmidt disease

Jeff Sullivan: Might just be a timing thing after missing some weeks, but when you have a shoulder issue that causes throws to look like they have, it wouldn’t be hard to see that impacting the swing as well

Derek Jeetz: Most valuable trade asset: Ohtani?  Trout? Albies?

Jeff Sullivan: As much as I love Trout, he’s only got another 2.6 years of (expensive) team control

Jeff Sullivan: Ohtani would fetch the most at this point. Albies is rising, but he’s also overachieving

Bob Sacamano: Ok, the White Sox need to send Lucas Giolito to High A level or something like that. Giving him this exposure cannot be helping him, right?

Jeff Sullivan: Yeah, Giolito needs to be out of the majors, pronto

Jeff Sullivan: Zero signs of sustainable improvement. Every time there’s one step forward it’s followed by three steps back

Jeff Sullivan: Unfortunately the White Sox have very little rotation depth. But for their own sake they should suck it up and find a Giolito replacement anyway. He needs to be trying to work out kinks against inferior competition

WhiSoxFn: Is Blake Rutherford’s development legit, or Winston-Salem aided?

Jeff Sullivan: Doesn’t look all that different to me. A little better contact quality, but nothing that’ll knock you over

marichal: Alen Hanson was hitting very well for SF before he strained his hamstring. He’s do back shortly. If he keeps hitting will he continue to get significant at bats, or will Joe Panik send him to the bench in a few weeks?

Jeff Sullivan: Hanson isn’t going to replace a healthy Panik or anything, but he might ultimately displace Sandoval

Mason: Guillermo Heredia now up to 17.2 BB% in almost 100 PA. Is it time to believe? Can he be a 3-4 WAR player for the m’s?

Jeff Sullivan: I don’t think Heredia quite has the power to keep up an awesome batting line, but one silver lining of everything that’s happened is that Heredia will get to play more often, so he can try to shed the platoon label he’s got

Jeff Sullivan: On his side is the fact that he can play center, he can get the bat on the ball, and he can manage the strike zone

Jeff Sullivan: Perhaps, at the end of it, the Mariners come to realize that Heredia is a better player than Gamel is

Vyse: What time of haul would it take for a team (Brewers?) to get Realmuto?

Jeff Sullivan: Big one. Two years of arbitration after this season

Jeff Sullivan: Think about what Lucroy got with one less year of control

Jeff Sullivan: Cost will be steep, but Realmuto is good enough

Alfredo: What are your thoughts on Hanley DFA? Realistic spots where he could go to?

Jeff Sullivan: Chat is loaded with these questions! I can’t help but feel like I find Hanley Ramirez to be less interesting than most everyone else

Jeff Sullivan: I mean, his career overall has been deeply interesting. He was once a top-five major-league player

Jeff Sullivan: But now? He’s kind of going the way of Andruw Jones or Griffey or something

David: So how about Austin Meadows? He’s not striking out, not whiffing much, showing power, making solid contact overall. No doubt the pitchers will adjust but so far it doesn’t completely look like it’s just a simple fluke, no?

Jeff Sullivan: If, as a hitter, you’re going to debut, you want to debut with six games against the Padres and the Reds

Jeff Sullivan: The Pirates are certainly thrilled that Meadows has already gone deep three times. But they also recognize he went deep all of once in Triple-A

Jeff Sullivan: I feel like this is going to be a short stint

JT: How do you think Moreland will do with a full time gig now that Hanley is out?

Jeff Sullivan: Worse

Parts + Gleyber: Byron Buxton solved his soft contact problems: just strike out!

Jeff Sullivan: For everything that’s ever been written about Buxton, his year-to-year strikeout rates have spanned from 29% to 36%

Jeff Sullivan: Which is to say, they’ve spanned from high to very high

Jeff Sullivan: Maybe — just maybe — Byron Buxton isn’t going to be a good major-league hitter

Tim: So did everyone jump the gun a bit on saying Didi Gregorius was the second coming?

Jeff Sullivan: He’s still good, and he’s still more than doubled his walk rate

Jeff Sullivan: But the real guy to watch here is Andrelton Simmons, who got a little lost in the shuffle

Jeff Sullivan: Like Gregorius, Simmons got off to a hot start. Unlike Gregorius, Simmons has continued to hit

Jeff Sullivan: He’s struck out two times in May!

Jeff Sullivan: In 95 plate appearances!

Jeff Sullivan: Andrelton Simmons!

Kristen: Joey Gallo: O-swing% way up, walk rate way down.  Too early to get alarmed as this will basically be just his 2nd full-season in the bigs?

Jeff Sullivan: Some of this, I think, is just natural give and take. Gallo is still a fearsome hitter, who destroys almost every fly ball that he hits. But something about Gallo this season has convinced pitchers they can get away with more stuff in the zone. That’s led to the lower walk rate — pitchers are being more aggressive

Jeff Sullivan: Could be connected to Gallo trying to do more to hit the ball up the middle or to the opposite field. He might be making himself worse by trying to make himself better

Jeff Sullivan: But I wouldn’t give up on him yet. His contact rate is up a few points. Give him another few months. The Rangers can afford to be patient

Pitch_Out: Jeff – hiking Mt St. Helens in late June – what do I need to be prepared? What should I know from your vast volcano / PNW hiking knowledge repository?

Jeff Sullivan: You’ll encounter snow, but by that point probably not very much. Expect the sun to beat down on you. Expect to breathe ashy air. I’ve done St Helens four years in a row but always in winter, when I get to climb on snow and ice. If I were in your position, I’d try for an alpine start — 2 or 3 in the morning — so as to not be up there in the hottest part of the day

Jeff Sullivan: Comes with the pleasant side effect of avoiding the big crowd

Jeff Sullivan: Also, you’d be above timberline for sunrise! It’s a great sunrise

Jeff Sullivan: I assume you’re doing this from the climbers bivouac, and not Marble Mountain Sno-Park

Andrew: So Brandon Nimmo. Is he still a 45 FV prospect? It seems like that’s selling him a bit short. Have his tools just improved (50 bat seems low given his OBP) or is he hitting his 1% percentile?

Jeff Sullivan: Fun fact! Yesterday, Nimmo hit a ball 110.9 miles per hour, which is the highest EV of his big-league career

Jeff Sullivan: He also hit a ball 108.3 miles per hour, which ranks fourth

Jeff Sullivan: Seems like Nimmo’s discipline has simply been underrated. It can be a hard trait to identify when you’re just seeing a guy for a few live games a year

Jeff Sullivan: Nimmo’s not a premium defender and he’s not yet much of a threat against lefties, but he’s better than his reputation has been

David: And what would you do with Pirates outfield now while Meadows bat is hot? 4 man OF? Send down Meadows for super 2 reasons?

Jeff Sullivan: I could see the argument for a four-man rotation, but since the three starters should play almost every game, I think at least for the short-term Meadows returns to Triple-A

TooDamnTall: Do pitchers with elite breaking balls benefit from consistent and similar elite movement on the pitch, or from giving batters different looks on the same pitch, even if it’s inferior movement?

Jeff Sullivan: Depends on the pitcher. Guys like McCullers and Hill talk about how they add and subtract from their curveballs, which effectively turns one pitch into multiple

Jeff Sullivan: Kluber, on the other hand, might be more concerned with always trying to throw his breaking ball the same way

Jeff Sullivan: But honestly, the former is kind of a pre-req for the latter. You have to have elite control of a pitch before you can feel comfortable adding and subtracting

Hahn: Is keeping Lucas Giolito in the Bigs a mistake?

Jeff Sullivan: Yep

Jeremy: What’s your favorite show to watch right now?

Jeff Sullivan: Not head-over-heels in love with anything, but happily going through Crashing and Atlanta

Teoscar the Grouch: Altuve and Hoskins were supposed to be the cornerstone of my fantasy team. They have 8 HR’s combined and Hoskins has almost 20 more K’s than hits. What’s up with them?

Jeff Sullivan: Altuve is one of the last players I’d worry about. He’s probably going to go on a homer flurry at some point

Jeff Sullivan: As for Hoskins, he’s sitting on a 124 wRC+. All things considered, that’s terrific

Jeff Sullivan: It’s true that May hasn’t been pretty, but Hoskins was also kind of overdue for his first real big-league adjustment. He wasn’t up long enough last season to get figured out

Jeff Sullivan: This month, Hoskins has seen far more changeups and far fewer fastballs

Jeff Sullivan: Worth noting that, in April, Hoskins saw first-pitch strikes less than half the time(!). In May, that’s normalized

Jeff Sullivan: Contact quality is still there, and the contact rate hasn’t plummeted to some horrible depth. I think Hoskins gets out of this, but something like this was coming

Hendrik: Is there even one legitimate reason for the Red Sox to not even try Swihart at Catcher? He can’t be any worse than what Vazquez and Leon are doing and I doubt his bat will be worth much at 1B, not to mention that it’s a huge waste of his athleticism.

Jeff Sullivan: Probably comes down to the fact that Swihart himself hasn’t hit well in a very long time

Jeff Sullivan: And it’s not like, compared to Vazquez or Leon, he offers any meaningful defensive advantage

Jeff Sullivan: Hard situation to disrupt on the fly when you’re playing for first place in your division

Ozzie Ozzie Albies Free: How would you recommend using xWOBA to predict future outcomes?

Jeff Sullivan: Carefully

Jeff Sullivan: It’s just one component to me, and I’d rather look at launch angles, exit velocities, and discipline rates

Jeff Sullivan: I like xwOBA as it’s constructed because it’s an easy way to say “hey this guy has been good/bad” but xwOBA is probably going to mirror BABIP and we know that BABIP bounces around all the time

Jeff Sullivan: If a guy hits a bunch of weak bloopers, then xwOBA will consider that good! Even though nothing about a blooper is sustainable

Harristotle: Lots of questions have been asked about the Astros pitchers spin rate absurd increases. Have there been answers?

Jeff Sullivan: Verlander has always had a high-spin fastball

Jeff Sullivan: Mostly this is about Cole

Jeff Sullivan: Cole had some games last year where his four-seamer was exceeding 2200 RPM. Now it’s just exceeding 2300 RPM

Jeff Sullivan: It’s also getting a little more rise and a little more cut

Jeff Sullivan: Wouldn’t be surprised if Cole were just releasing the ball slightly differently

Jeff Sullivan: I am not a conspiracy theorist

Palardelphia: On May 13th, the Phillies played the Mets. Bottom of the 5th inning, Aaron Nola delivered an 85.4 MPH changeup, which Jorge Alfaro received and then threw out a runner with a 91.3 MPH fastball. That difference has to be some sort of record.

Jeff Sullivan: Probably not! Because Alfaro has probably made another strong throw after an Aaron Nola curveball

Jake: What should the Cardinals do with Dexter Fowler?  Signed to be CF and leadoff, now bottom of the order platoon RF.   Does he get the Mike Leake sendoff?

Jeff Sullivan: In Triple-A, this very season, Tyler O’Neill had three walks and 28 strikeouts

Jeff Sullivan: Meanwhile, Dexter Fowler is sitting on a BABIP of literally .164

Jeff Sullivan: Fowler’s launch angle isn’t meaningfully different and I don’t think he completely forgot how to hit overnight

Jeff Sullivan: He hasn’t had a below-average batting line since 2010

Jeff Sullivan: Last year, through to this point, Curtis Granderson had a 47 wRC+, and a .191 BABIP

Jeff Sullivan: The rest of the way, his wRC+ was 132

Jeff Sullivan: Fowler deserves some patience

Mac Gwire: Who is this year’s Jason Vargas: overperforming veteran you have no desire to write about?

Jeff Sullivan: Let me check!

Jeff Sullivan: Oh right, Nick Markakis

Jeff Sullivan: It’s Nick Markakis

Jim: What went wrong with the Johnny Cueto trade for the Reds, just the way it goes sometimes?

Jeff Sullivan: I liked all three pitchers they got, and they did well to get that much talent for a three-month rental. And yet out of every team in baseball, I don’t think there’s a team I trust to develop pitching less than I trust the Reds

Jeff Sullivan: Granted, it’s probably not the Reds’ fault that Finnegan hasn’t been healthy

Jeff Sullivan: Reed’s control has gone backwards as he’s climbed the ladder

Jeff Sullivan: Funny thing about Lamb is that he’s kind of back on the radar, in Triple-A for the Angels

Jeff Sullivan: 42 strikeouts in 38 innings for Salt Lake. It’s something!

Jeff Sullivan: But he has yet to throw even 70 pitches in a start. Take-home message: when you trade for young pitching, you have no idea what you’re getting in return

Ray: Jeff. Hey Jeff. Kids born in 2000 are getting drafted in two weeks.

Jeff Sullivan: Already felt like a useless old fraud. Only have to hold out another 35 years!

TRANE: What would you think the Orioles would ask for teams interested in Machado?

Jeff Sullivan: More than those teams are going to give

Jeff Sullivan: Machado is better than J.D. Martinez, but at last year’s deadline, Martinez got hardly anything. The haul the Orioles eventually get in exchange for their best player is not likely to be all that significant. They’ll get a good prospect or two, but nothing incredible

Brendan: With several $100+ million contracts and some elite young players breaking records in arbitration, do the Cubs actually have the money to sign Machado or Harper in the offseason?

Jeff Sullivan: Yes

Jeff Sullivan: The Cubs more or less print money these days. Granted, something like this might require a trade to make room, but, trades are extremely feasible

mmddyyyy: What kind of player would have market price around Pujols’ contract?

Jeff Sullivan: So, about $106 million through 2021

Jeff Sullivan: A very extremely good player

Jeff Sullivan: Even Lorenzo Cain only got $80 million through *2022*

Jeff Sullivan: Imagine a younger version of present Lorenzo Cain

FailSon: Given the strides that Phillies are making this season, if they can sign Machado do you think that puts them as NL East Frontrunners for several years?

Jeff Sullivan: Obviously depends on what the Braves do, since they’re also close, but we are about ripe for a Phillies/Braves NL East showdown with the Nationals appearing closer and closer to the end of their cycle

Jeff Sullivan: That being said, if Soto and Robles are what the Nationals think they could be, then, well, nevermind

Smith: Could you see the Yankees try trading for one of Kevin Gausman or Dylan Bundy?

Jeff Sullivan: The Orioles strike me as one of those teams that wouldn’t want to trade good long-term talent within the division

mmddyyyy: What percent of contracts are negative value?

Jeff Sullivan: Far far fewer than those which are positive value

Jack: Jeff, I like to hike. In the summer, bugs scare me. I feel greater stress. Is it just time that will help me get used to them or have any tips?

Jeff Sullivan: Few things can spoil a great hike or climb quite like a swarm of mosquitoes

Jeff Sullivan: Personally I have no experience with ticks

Jeff Sullivan: But as mosquitoes go, just do your best to work around them. Obviously, you’ll want some spray, but also just try not to spend too much time around water. Certainly don’t *camp* really close to water during mosquito season

Jeff Sullivan: And maybe try to schedule your hikes for windy days!

pch: If you couldn’t write about baseball for a living, what would you be doing? Open up a trampoline gym?

Jeff Sullivan: No idea. Something not on the internet

mmddyyyy: Any chance expansion could come one team at a time?

Jeff Sullivan: Some chance, yes, but I don’t think it’s a high chance

mmddyyyy: Tips for camping in the rain?

Jeff Sullivan: Try not to do it

Jeff Sullivan: But if you find you will have to do it, steel yourself ahead of time. Work on your morale! Bring many changes of socks, and keep everything in your pack inside a garbage back or two so that your gear doesn’t get soaked

Bebop: will Yu be back to himself before the end of the year you think?

Jeff Sullivan: Yes

A cat: How does one go from batting second to a DFA the next morning?

Jeff Sullivan: It’s the DFA that makes sense. The lineup positioning is the weird part

mmddyyyy: Are your work nightmares about baseball?

Jeff Sullivan: About writing about baseball, definitely

Jeff Sullivan: The other week I had a dream where I was in my office like normal, blogging about baseball

Jeff Sullivan: Then I woke up and came into my office to blog about baseball

Jeff Sullivan: It was very stupid

Bub: Is the bubbling close to the majors/just debuted prospect crop this year (Acuna, Soto, Guerrero Jr., etc.) better than usual?  It feel better than usual.

Jeff Sullivan: Better than usual, probably, but in, say, 2015, there was Correa, Lindor, Sano, Osuna, Bryant, Syndergaard…

Jeff Sullivan: All right, I need to get rolling

Jeff Sullivan: So thank you everybody for hanging out, and I’m sorry for what I didn’t or couldn’t address. We’ll do it again next week at the same time, and until then, be well and have great days