Jeff Sullivan FanGraphs Chat — 5/25/18

May 25, 2018

9:06	Jeff Sullivan: Hello friends

9:06	Jeff Sullivan: Welcome to Friday baseball chat

9:06	Jeff Sullivan: Sorry about that delay — very much podcasting this morning and afternoon for some reason

9:06	Put me in coach: Worse contract at this point – Heyward or Pujols

9:06	Jeff Sullivan: Pujols. Heyward, despite everything, still isn’t an overall negative

9:07	Jeff Sullivan: It is too bad though — earlier this season, it seemed like Heyward was showing some real signs of life. They’ve all but disappeared, although in fairness he has experienced a concussion

9:08	Jack: So who should pick up Hanley Ramirez for league minimum after he’s released? The Rays could use another right-handed 1B/DH type who isn’t Rob Refsnyder to spell Miller against lefties. Do you think Ramirez has anything left?

9:09	Jeff Sullivan: I don’t know what the point of Ramirez would be for anyone anymore

9:10	Jeff Sullivan: He doesn’t field, he doesn’t run, and he’s no longer much of a hitter. I know that he can still generate some impressive peak exit velocities, but in terms of value, this isn’t a desirable or unusual skillset

9:11	Jeff Sullivan: Refsnyder probably isn’t worse than Ramirez these days, especially given that he can somewhat play the field

9:12	Sean: What kind of impact do you see from Alex Reyes this year? Also will he have an innings limit?

9:12	Jeff Sullivan: I remember reading that the Cardinals had something around 100 innings in mind. That was a few months ago but I doubt much has changed

9:14	Jeff Sullivan: The Cardinals, per usual, have assembled an impressive amount of depth. And that’s going to be useful over the coming months as they try to balance innings among their young starters, from Reyes to Weaver to Flaherty

9:15	Jeff Sullivan: Reyes should find his way close to that innings target. And he’s a big reason why the Cardinals are a very legitimate contender in the division

9:16

Put on your tinfoil hats: MLB released a statement that the balls aren’t juiced, but something is up with the aerodynamic properties. Some have suggested that every team should have a humidor. The official report mentioned that they have “…not yet succeeded in definitively explaining the cause of the decreased drag coefficient…”. Is this just a ploy by Big Humidor to boost sales?

9:16	Jeff Sullivan: Follow the money. It all goes back to Halliburton

9:17	Jeff Sullivan: Realistically it’s kind of surprising there isn’t already a league-wide humidor policy

9:17	Jeff Sullivan: I know in a certain sense baseball thrives on everyone having a unique playing environment, but there’s no reason not to ensure greater baseball consistency ball to ball and park to park

9:17	Parts + Gleyber: Does this spell the end of Hanley’s 30-30 comeback tour? Where does he end up?

9:17	Jeff Sullivan: I’m sure he’ll end up with some kind of job but his regular playing days are over

9:18	Jeff Sullivan: Baseball doesn’t give that many extra chances to declining veterans these days

9:18	Jeff Sullivan: Why pick up Hanley Ramirez if you could try to deal for Jabari Blash or something?

9:18	Jeff Sullivan: I really like Jabari Blash

9:19	The Tone: Jeff! Just an announcement: based on the completely cherry-picked threshold of 100 min. PAs, Brandon Nimmo is third in MLB in wRC+. Also Ohtani is seventh, which is whacko.

9:19	Jeff Sullivan: Brandon Nimmo is good!

9:19	Jeff Sullivan: Not .393 BABIP good, but he’s a good player. And if you look closely, you can see a lot more fly balls all of a sudden

9:19	Jeff Sullivan: Granted, that’s come with an unsettling increase in his pop-ups, but that could settle down

9:20	HappyFunBall: Good morning Jeff! Do you suppose that the Mets will have enough patience to wait out the waiver process before picking up Hanley? Or will their washed up slugger fetish compel them to eat the contract as well?

9:20	Jeff Sullivan: Thank goodness for them that Wilmer Flores has a three-digit wRC+

9:21	James: How much have analytics affected baserunning tactics? I feel like teams should still be more aggressive, especially with 2 outs.

9:21	Jeff Sullivan: Let’s try to take a look!

9:21	Jeff Sullivan: I’ll compare 2018 to, I don’t know…1998?

9:21	Jeff Sullivan: 1998 feels pre-analytics

9:22	Jeff Sullivan: In 1998, the average runner moved up an extra base 42% of the time

9:22	Jeff Sullivan: In 2018, the average runner has moved up an extra base…42% of the time

9:23	Jeff Sullivan: Stolen base success rate has gone up four percentage points

9:23	Jeff Sullivan: I don’t have an easy way of breaking this down by outs

9:23	Jeff Sullivan: I think that analytics has had a definite effect on steals, but I don’t know about the rest of baserunning. Feels like that’s still steeped in old-school mentality, because we haven’t come up with much of anything better

9:24	Stuart: Should Padres fan have any hope for Margot offensively? Slump or is this just who he is offensively?

9:26	Jeff Sullivan: Well, he’s definitely not this — his true talent isn’t a 47 wRC+

9:27	Jeff Sullivan: His career mark, though, is 81. And that feels realistic to me, because he doesn’t have a standout skill. He’s not that powerful, so it’s going to be hard for him to draw walks. It’s a good thing he’s strong in the field

9:27	Jeff Sullivan: But ultimately that Padres outfield picture isn’t as crowded as it seems. There are players who could stand to lose some playing time

9:28	Ross: So, since starting 12-5 the Blue Jays have gone 11-22, just wrapping up a 1-6 home stand against the A’s and Angels. Lot of ugly, blowout losses, too. Do you still see them as a strong Wild Card contender?

9:28

Jeff Sullivan: I do see them as a contender, because I don’t think they’re actually worse than the Mariners are. But I’ve been counting on Sanchez and Stroman and they just haven’t stepped up. Stroman, of course, is sidelined, and Sanchez has improved his changeup while making everything else a lot worse

9:30	Jeff Sullivan: Guerrero should provide a jolt pretty soon. And some of this has just been a function of the schedule. Early on, the Jays got to beat up on the Rangers, Orioles, Royals, and White Sox

9:31	Henry: What do you think is the Red Sox plan now that they DFA’s Hanley?

9:33	Jeff Sullivan: I’m not sure there’s much here to overthink

9:33	Jeff Sullivan: Ramirez was not good, and he’s gone now that Pedroia is back

9:33	Jeff Sullivan: So now, instead of Pedroia stealing a bunch of playing time from Nunez, Nunez will get to play a little more

9:34	Jeff Sullivan: Maybe Moreland gets a slightly longer leash against lefties, too. With Ramirez’s lack of flexibility, this makes enough sense

9:36	Gleyb Ruth: What will/should the Yankees do when Bird comes back? Austin has been playing well and Walker is hot lately.

9:37	Jeff Sullivan: Because Austin can be optioned to the minors, it seems like the easiest thing to do is just send him to Triple-A for a little while

9:37	Jeff Sullivan: He does still have a sub-.300 OBP after all

9:38	Jeff Sullivan: Neil Walker has had a really strong May after a godawful April, so I don’t think the Yankees would designate him for assignment just yet

9:39	Jeff Sullivan: I’ll say 75% Austin goes to Triple-A, 20% Walker leaves, 5% mystery move

9:40	Jeff Sullivan: I’ve considered that Walker might make a little sense for the Mariners but I doubt they want to just throw Gordon back into the outfield again and he’s not out long-term

9:42	Josh Donaldson: What the hell’s going on with me?

9:42	Jeff Sullivan: Kind of looks like Goldschmidt disease

9:43	Jeff Sullivan: Might just be a timing thing after missing some weeks, but when you have a shoulder issue that causes throws to look like they have, it wouldn’t be hard to see that impacting the swing as well

9:45	Derek Jeetz: Most valuable trade asset: Ohtani? Trout? Albies?

9:45	Jeff Sullivan: As much as I love Trout, he’s only got another 2.6 years of (expensive) team control

9:46	Jeff Sullivan: Ohtani would fetch the most at this point. Albies is rising, but he’s also overachieving

9:46	Bob Sacamano: Ok, the White Sox need to send Lucas Giolito to High A level or something like that. Giving him this exposure cannot be helping him, right?

9:46	Jeff Sullivan: Yeah, Giolito needs to be out of the majors, pronto

9:46	Jeff Sullivan: Zero signs of sustainable improvement. Every time there’s one step forward it’s followed by three steps back

9:47	Jeff Sullivan: Unfortunately the White Sox have very little rotation depth. But for their own sake they should suck it up and find a Giolito replacement anyway. He needs to be trying to work out kinks against inferior competition

9:48	WhiSoxFn: Is Blake Rutherford’s development legit, or Winston-Salem aided?

9:48	Jeff Sullivan: Doesn’t look all that different to me. A little better contact quality, but nothing that’ll knock you over

9:49	marichal: Alen Hanson was hitting very well for SF before he strained his hamstring. He’s do back shortly. If he keeps hitting will he continue to get significant at bats, or will Joe Panik send him to the bench in a few weeks?

9:50	Jeff Sullivan: Hanson isn’t going to replace a healthy Panik or anything, but he might ultimately displace Sandoval

9:50	Mason: Guillermo Heredia now up to 17.2 BB% in almost 100 PA. Is it time to believe? Can he be a 3-4 WAR player for the m’s?

9:52	Jeff Sullivan: I don’t think Heredia quite has the power to keep up an awesome batting line, but one silver lining of everything that’s happened is that Heredia will get to play more often, so he can try to shed the platoon label he’s got

9:53	Jeff Sullivan: On his side is the fact that he can play center, he can get the bat on the ball, and he can manage the strike zone

9:53	Jeff Sullivan: Perhaps, at the end of it, the Mariners come to realize that Heredia is a better player than Gamel is

9:54	Vyse: What time of haul would it take for a team (Brewers?) to get Realmuto?

9:54	Jeff Sullivan: Big one. Two years of arbitration after this season

9:55	Jeff Sullivan: Think about what Lucroy got with one less year of control

9:55	Jeff Sullivan: Cost will be steep, but Realmuto is good enough

9:56	Alfredo: What are your thoughts on Hanley DFA? Realistic spots where he could go to?

9:56	Jeff Sullivan: Chat is loaded with these questions! I can’t help but feel like I find Hanley Ramirez to be less interesting than most everyone else

9:57	Jeff Sullivan: I mean, his career overall has been deeply interesting. He was once a top-five major-league player

9:57	Jeff Sullivan: But now? He’s kind of going the way of Andruw Jones or Griffey or something

9:57	David: So how about Austin Meadows? He’s not striking out, not whiffing much, showing power, making solid contact overall. No doubt the pitchers will adjust but so far it doesn’t completely look like it’s just a simple fluke, no?

9:58	Jeff Sullivan: If, as a hitter, you’re going to debut, you want to debut with six games against the Padres and the Reds

9:58	Jeff Sullivan: The Pirates are certainly thrilled that Meadows has already gone deep three times. But they also recognize he went deep all of once in Triple-A

9:59	Jeff Sullivan: I feel like this is going to be a short stint

9:59	JT: How do you think Moreland will do with a full time gig now that Hanley is out?

9:59	Jeff Sullivan: Worse

9:59	Parts + Gleyber: Byron Buxton solved his soft contact problems: just strike out!

9:59	Jeff Sullivan: For everything that’s ever been written about Buxton, his year-to-year strikeout rates have spanned from 29% to 36%