Jeff Sullivan FanGraphs Chat — 5/4/18

May 4, 2018

9:05	Jeff Sullivan: Hello friends

9:05	Jeff Sullivan: Welcome to Friday baseball chat

9:05	john: Hello, Jeff. Thank you for chatting.

9:06	Jeff Sullivan: Hello john. Thank you for chatting, because without any of you, this would be pathetic

9:06	Put me in coach: You have to tell me what is going on with Nick Markakis. He has the third highest WAR in the NL.

9:06	Jeff Sullivan: You can never really dig too deep on these things in a live-chat format, but Markakis has such a fun profile right now

9:07	Jeff Sullivan: Strikeouts? He’s halved them! Grounders? He doesn’t hit them! Walks? He’s got more of them!

9:08	Jeff Sullivan: I’m not sure there’s been a true approach change — his discipline numbers look similar to how they always have. But the Braves overall have an easy lead in the majors in team wRC+. They’re eight points above the Yankees, while having to bat a pitcher

9:09	Jeff Sullivan: The Braves have become something fierce. All that attention people paid to the organization’s young pitchers, and it’s the lineup that’s driving this early success

9:10	Ben: What would be a realistic Machado trade that would leave both the Dodgers and O’s equally pleased? Or in the very least, equally miserable?

9:10	Jeff Sullivan: So the first thing I’ll say is that a Machado trade is almost too obvious. The Dodgers don’t really do the obvious things

9:11	Jeff Sullivan: And if they’re content with Taylor at shortstop, that opens up other options. Maybe they don’t need to make a move at all. Maybe they prefer to add an outfielder

9:12	Jeff Sullivan: It wouldn’t surprise me if we got to midseason and the Dodgers decided they’d rather have a new starting pitcher, after making more use of guys like Verdugo and Toles

9:12	Jeff Sullivan: But this isn’t directly addressing your question. And just last year, the Dodgers paid for a quality rental in Yu Darvish. That cost them Willie Calhoun and change

9:15	Jeff Sullivan: Mitchell White just re-joined an affiliate from extended spring training. He’s a name to watch

9:15	Jeff Sullivan: Same with Yadier Alvarez, who is potentially kind of stuck

9:16	Jeff Sullivan: Keibert Ruiz could be of real interest, although the Orioles are also folding in Chance Sisco more and more

9:16	Jeff Sullivan: If I were the Orioles I’d think about demanding Breyvic Valera. Deserves more of a chance than he’s likely to get in LA

9:17	Jack: Which team has your opinion/expectations of changed the most since the start of the season?

9:18	Jeff Sullivan: Even after gaining two games in two days, I have more concern than I expected to have about the Dodgers. Obviously, there’s the Seager news, but I’m also still a little troubled by Kenley Jansen

9:19	Jeff Sullivan: And of course I didn’t think the Braves would look this good. That’s a team with real staying power

9:19	stever20: are we going to look back at these last 2 days as when the Dodgers turned the corner for this season?

9:19	Jeff Sullivan: It’s probably going to have more to do with whenever Justin Turner returns

9:20	john: Hello, Jeff. Thank you for chatting with us. Should the Mets DFA Harvey? At this point, is there anything to gain or hope for by having him on the roster?

9:21	Jeff Sullivan: It’s very hard, because the Mets of all teams know that they shouldn’t deplete their starting pitching depth

9:21	Jeff Sullivan: And since Harvey is in his contract year it’s not like he’s a guy you can trade to some other team that wants to try to rebuild him

9:22	Jeff Sullivan: I think you’re looking at another five months of this roller coaster ride

9:23	Guest: What happens to Profar when Andrus and Odor come back? What should happen?

9:23	Jeff Sullivan: He plays less frequently until the Rangers trade Adrian Beltre to a contender in July

9:24	Jeff Sullivan: I’m really encouraged by what I’ve seen from Profar. He’s back on my radar

9:24	Matt: (Pre-typed question – did I get first?!?) What are your thoughts on Newcomb? He’s up above a K per inning – he going to stay that way? I’m debating a relatively drastic fantasy move that doesn’t really require him to provide anything but Ks…

9:25	Jeff Sullivan: Never been a question about his ability to miss bats. It’s always been a matter of his control. If you only care about strikeouts, then, good news!

9:26	Jeff Sullivan: In the majors, Newcomb has maintained a roughly average strike rate. Not sure he’ll ever get much better in that regard, but even this is playable

9:26	Matt: Lunch: Mediterranean or Cuban?

9:26	Jeff Sullivan: Who do you trust to make this decision: yourself, or someone who doesn’t know you?

9:27	Jeff Sullivan: Have some self-confidence

9:27	Jeff Sullivan: Unless you’re Matt from El Cajon who I know from middle school

9:27	Jeff Sullivan: In which case you want Cuban

9:28

Ross: So what should the Dodgers do now? Trust their outfield depth enough to just move Taylor back to short for the rest of the season, or look to trade for a shortstop? Obviously, Machado is the name that comes to everyone’s mind. If they find the price for a Machado rental too steep, the Rays were always going to trade Hechavarria and call up Adames at some point this season. Of course, Taylor also hasn’t looked much like his 2017 self so far this year

9:29	Jeff Sullivan: In a sense it’s “easy” for the Dodgers right now, because you almost never see any trades of real consequence in April or May. There was like Mark Trumbo to the Mariners early that one June

9:29	Jeff Sullivan: As a rule of thumb, you don’t see all that much meaningful trade activity until after the draft. It’s not just up to the Dodgers — the Orioles, say, would want to drum up as big a market as possible

9:31

Jeff Sullivan: So I don’t think the Dodgers have to make any decisions for the rest of the season, but for now, they’re going to stay internal. And you can see how that might work out, especially if Toles is almost all better. And if Verdugo has moved forward in his personal development. A few weeks from now, it’ll be time to reevaluate

9:31	Jeff Sullivan: If Taylor isn’t cutting it, Hechavarria would be very easy

9:32	brood550: Is Kyle Tucker up immediately after the All-Star break if things keep going the way they are going?

9:32	Jeff Sullivan: Tucker isn’t exactly killing it in Triple-A, but if things keep up like this in the majors I doubt it takes even that long

9:33	Jeff Sullivan: Fisher hasn’t been good. Marisnick hasn’t been good. Gonzalez hasn’t been good. Tucker could be good

9:33	John Oleruds Helmet: Hello Mr. Jeff! Am I crazy for thinking Mookie Betts is the 2nd best player in baseball right now behind Trout??

9:34	Jeff Sullivan: Updated rest-of-season projections:

9:34	Jeff Sullivan: Trout: 6.8 WAR Kluber: 5.2 Betts: 5.1

9:34	Jeff Sullivan: If the projections basically agree with you, then, no, you’re not crazy

9:34	Jeff Sullivan: And just on a skillset level, Betts does some of everything. He is fantastically good

9:35	Guest: Did the Rays miss an opportunity to deal Colome? Is this lesson trade a reliever whenever you can?

9:35	Jeff Sullivan: Over the last few weeks, Colome has actually been quite good, recovering from a godawful start

9:36	Jeff Sullivan: And in the offseason, the Rays were trying to negotiate trades involving a reliever who’d just lost 11 points off of his strikeout rate

9:37	Jeff Sullivan: I suspect that the winter market didn’t value Colome very highly. So the Rays figured he might gain value in 2018. Didn’t look that way at first, but perhaps now he’s figured something out

9:37	Luke: Hey Jeff are you tired of us obnoxious Braves fans yet?

9:37	Jeff Sullivan: No

9:38	Jeff Sullivan: Nobody I interact with in real life is a Braves fan, and I get to personally curate my internet experience

9:38	Ya Boi : Are you worried about Clayton Kershaw? His 3.76 FIP is way higher than usual and it seems he’s giving up a lot more homers than usual (19.4% FB/HR compared to 15.9% FB/HR last year)

9:39	Jeff Sullivan: I’m not worried that Clayton Kershaw is bad now, but I am aware of the likely fact that Kershaw is a pitcher in decline

9:39	Jeff Sullivan: His velocity is down a tick and a half, his contact rate is up, and he’s not getting as many chases

9:40	Jeff Sullivan: To me, the probability is that Kershaw’s body just isn’t letting him throw at 100% as often as it used to. Peak Kershaw is still there in some extended glimpses, but there are two, three, four pitches per start he’s not executing, that he used to execute

9:41	Tim: The Rays are 12-5 without Kevin Kiermaier in the lineup this season and 1-11 with him. I don’t know what to do with this information, so here, you have it

9:42	Jeff Sullivan: Last year the Rays were 47-48 in Kiermaier starts and 33-34 without him in the lineup

9:42	Jeff Sullivan: Weird!

9:44	Vegan Man!: Price hasn’t looked good since the short Yankees start. You concerned? Thanks!

9:44	Jeff Sullivan: He’s not right

9:46	Jeff Sullivan: Maybe I’m stubborn because I’ve been thinking this for months but I’ve been skeptical about Price since he was injured last season

9:46	Jeff Sullivan: I just don’t think his arm is held together the way it used to be

9:47	Kiermaier’s Piercing Green Eyes: Has Jose Alvarado shown enough control to be a legitimate late inning guy?

9:47	Jeff Sullivan: By leverage stats, he’s certainly been used that way

9:47	Jeff Sullivan: And his big-league FIP- is 56

9:48	Jeff Sullivan: He’s not exactly the most polished sort, but he’s more good than not good

9:49	Brood550: Is Dozier toast or has he just become a second half guy?

9:49	Jeff Sullivan: I don’t see anything too alarming here

9:50	Jeff Sullivan: Almost everything looks normal. He’s just missing a handful of hard hits. He’ll find them

9:50	Teddy Perkins: Mookie Betts has a .325 BABIP. This isn’t a question.

9:51	Jeff Sullivan: Kyle Freeland has a 9% walk rate

9:51	Jeff Sullivan: Are we just saying normal-looking statistics?

9:51	John: What’s the concern level for Alex Colome?

9:51	Jeff Sullivan: Far lower than a few weeks ago

9:53	Put me in coach: The Braves offense has 2.4 more WAR than the second most team in baseball. Please put into context.

9:53	Jeff Sullivan: You already did

9:54	Jeff Sullivan: Now, the Braves are also No. 1 in BABIP, so, you know, of course they’re somewhat overachieving. Weird to see them 26th in hard-hit rate

9:55	Jeff Sullivan: By expected wOBA, the Braves rank 15th

9:55	Jeff Sullivan: That’s actually big! I didn’t expect to find them so low

9:56	Jeff Sullivan: The Braves have baseball’s greatest difference between wOBA and expected wOBA. the Rays are next, and they also have a high BABIP

9:56	Dylan: Jason Vargas……..woof

9:56	Jeff Sullivan: Wilmer Font territory!

9:58	Michael Conforto: What do you make of Conforto’s slow start? Is he still hurt? Not as good as we thought based on last year? Or just having a lot of bad luck?