Jeff Sullivan FanGraphs Chat — 5/4/18

9:05

Jeff Sullivan: Hello friends

9:05

Jeff Sullivan: Welcome to Friday baseball chat

9:05

john: Hello, Jeff. Thank you for chatting.

9:06

Jeff Sullivan: Hello john. Thank you for chatting, because without any of you, this would be pathetic

9:06

Put me in coach: You have to tell me what is going on with Nick Markakis. He has the third highest WAR in the NL.

9:06

Jeff Sullivan: You can never really dig too deep on these things in a live-chat format, but Markakis has such a fun profile right now

9:07

Jeff Sullivan: Strikeouts? He’s halved them! Grounders? He doesn’t hit them! Walks? He’s got more of them!

9:08

Jeff Sullivan: I’m not sure there’s been a true approach change — his discipline numbers look similar to how they always have. But the Braves overall have an easy lead in the majors in team wRC+. They’re eight points above the Yankees, while having to bat a pitcher

9:09

Jeff Sullivan: The Braves have become something fierce. All that attention people paid to the organization’s young pitchers, and it’s the lineup that’s driving this early success

9:10

Ben: What would be a realistic Machado trade that would leave both the Dodgers and O’s equally pleased? Or in the very least, equally miserable?

9:10

Jeff Sullivan: So the first thing I’ll say is that a Machado trade is almost *too* obvious. The Dodgers don’t really do the obvious things

9:11

Jeff Sullivan: And if they’re content with Taylor at shortstop, that opens up other options. Maybe they don’t need to make a move at all. Maybe they prefer to add an outfielder

9:12

Jeff Sullivan: It wouldn’t surprise me if we got to midseason and the Dodgers decided they’d rather have a new starting pitcher, after making more use of guys like Verdugo and Toles

9:12

Jeff Sullivan: But this isn’t directly addressing your question. And just last year, the Dodgers paid for a quality rental in Yu Darvish. That cost them Willie Calhoun and change

9:15

Jeff Sullivan: Mitchell White just re-joined an affiliate from extended spring training. He’s a name to watch

9:15

Jeff Sullivan: Same with Yadier Alvarez, who is potentially kind of stuck

9:16

Jeff Sullivan: Keibert Ruiz could be of real interest, although the Orioles are also folding in Chance Sisco more and more

9:16

Jeff Sullivan: If I were the Orioles I’d think about demanding Breyvic Valera. Deserves more of a chance than he’s likely to get in LA

9:17

Jack: Which team has your opinion/expectations of changed the most since the start of the season?

9:18

Jeff Sullivan: Even after gaining two games in two days, I have more concern than I expected to have about the Dodgers. Obviously, there’s the Seager news, but I’m also still a little troubled by Kenley Jansen

9:19

Jeff Sullivan: And of course I didn’t think the Braves would look this good. That’s a team with real staying power

9:19

stever20: are we going to look back at these last 2 days as when the Dodgers turned the corner for this season?

9:19

Jeff Sullivan: It’s probably going to have more to do with whenever Justin Turner returns

9:20

john: Hello, Jeff.  Thank you for chatting with us.  Should the Mets DFA Harvey?  At this point, is there anything to gain or hope for by having him on the roster?

9:21

Jeff Sullivan: It’s very hard, because the Mets of all teams know that they shouldn’t deplete their starting pitching depth

9:21

Jeff Sullivan: And since Harvey is in his contract year it’s not like he’s a guy you can trade to some other team that wants to try to rebuild him

9:22

Jeff Sullivan: I think you’re looking at another five months of this roller coaster ride

9:23

Guest: What happens to Profar when Andrus and Odor come back?  What should happen?

9:23

Jeff Sullivan: He plays less frequently until the Rangers trade Adrian Beltre to a contender in July

9:24

Jeff Sullivan: I’m really encouraged by what I’ve seen from Profar. He’s back on my radar

9:24

Matt: (Pre-typed question – did I get first?!?) What are your thoughts on Newcomb? He’s up above a K per inning – he going to stay that way? I’m debating a relatively drastic fantasy move that doesn’t really require him to provide anything but Ks…

9:25

Jeff Sullivan: Never been a question about his ability to miss bats. It’s always been a matter of his control. If you only care about strikeouts, then, good news!

9:26

Jeff Sullivan: In the majors, Newcomb has maintained a roughly average strike rate. Not sure he’ll ever get much better in that regard, but even this is playable

9:26

Matt: Lunch: Mediterranean or Cuban?

9:26

Jeff Sullivan: Who do you trust to make this decision: yourself, or someone who doesn’t know you?

9:27

Jeff Sullivan: Have some self-confidence

9:27

Jeff Sullivan: Unless you’re Matt from El Cajon who I know from middle school

9:27

Jeff Sullivan: In which case you want Cuban

9:28

Ross: So what should the Dodgers do now? Trust their outfield depth enough to just move Taylor back to short for the rest of the season, or look to trade for a shortstop? Obviously, Machado is the name that comes to everyone’s mind. If they find the price for a Machado rental too steep, the Rays were always going to trade Hechavarria and call up Adames at some point this season. Of course, Taylor also hasn’t looked much like his 2017 self so far this year

9:29

Jeff Sullivan: In a sense it’s “easy” for the Dodgers right now, because you almost never see any trades of real consequence in April or May. There was like Mark Trumbo to the Mariners early that one June

9:29

Jeff Sullivan: As a rule of thumb, you don’t see all that much meaningful trade activity until after the draft. It’s not just up to the Dodgers — the Orioles, say, would want to drum up as big a market as possible

9:31

Jeff Sullivan: So I don’t think the Dodgers have to make any decisions for the rest of the season, but for now, they’re going to stay internal. And you can see how that might work out, especially if Toles is almost all better. And if Verdugo has moved forward in his personal development. A few weeks from now, it’ll be time to reevaluate

9:31

Jeff Sullivan: If Taylor isn’t cutting it, Hechavarria would be very easy

9:32

brood550: Is Kyle Tucker up immediately after the All-Star break if things keep going the way they are going?

9:32

Jeff Sullivan: Tucker isn’t exactly killing it in Triple-A, but if things keep up like this in the majors I doubt it takes even that long

9:33

Jeff Sullivan: Fisher hasn’t been good. Marisnick hasn’t been good. Gonzalez hasn’t been good. Tucker could be good

9:33

John Oleruds Helmet: Hello Mr. Jeff! Am I crazy for thinking Mookie Betts is the 2nd best player in baseball right now behind Trout??

9:34

Jeff Sullivan: Updated rest-of-season projections:

9:34

Jeff Sullivan: Trout: 6.8 WAR
Kluber: 5.2
Betts: 5.1

9:34

Jeff Sullivan: If the projections basically agree with you, then, no, you’re not crazy

9:34

Jeff Sullivan: And just on a skillset level, Betts does some of everything. He is fantastically good

9:35

Guest: Did the Rays miss an opportunity to deal Colome?  Is this lesson trade a reliever whenever you can?

9:35

Jeff Sullivan: Over the last few weeks, Colome has actually been quite good, recovering from a godawful start

9:36

Jeff Sullivan: And in the offseason, the Rays were trying to negotiate trades involving a reliever who’d just lost 11 points off of his strikeout rate

9:37

Jeff Sullivan: I suspect that the winter market didn’t value Colome very highly. So the Rays figured he might gain value in 2018. Didn’t look that way at first, but perhaps now he’s figured something out

9:37

Luke: Hey Jeff are you tired of us obnoxious Braves fans yet?

9:37

Jeff Sullivan: No

9:38

Jeff Sullivan: Nobody I interact with in real life is a Braves fan, and I get to personally curate my internet experience

9:38

Ya Boi : Are you worried about Clayton Kershaw? His 3.76 FIP is way higher than usual and it seems he’s giving up a lot more homers than usual (19.4% FB/HR compared to 15.9% FB/HR last year)

9:39

Jeff Sullivan: I’m not worried that Clayton Kershaw is bad now, but I am aware of the likely fact that Kershaw is a pitcher in decline

9:39

Jeff Sullivan: His velocity is down a tick and a half, his contact rate is up, and he’s not getting as many chases

9:40

Jeff Sullivan: To me, the probability is that Kershaw’s body just isn’t letting him throw at 100% as often as it used to. Peak Kershaw is still there in some extended glimpses, but there are two, three, four pitches per start he’s not executing, that he used to execute

9:41

Tim: The Rays are 12-5 without Kevin Kiermaier in the lineup this season and 1-11 with him. I don’t know what to do with this information, so here, you have it

9:42

Jeff Sullivan: Last year the Rays were 47-48 in Kiermaier starts and 33-34 without him in the lineup

9:42

Jeff Sullivan: Weird!

9:44

Vegan Man!: Price hasn’t looked good since the short Yankees start. You concerned? Thanks!

9:44

Jeff Sullivan: He’s not right

9:46

Jeff Sullivan: Maybe I’m stubborn because I’ve been thinking this for months but I’ve been skeptical about Price since he was injured last season

9:46

Jeff Sullivan: I just don’t think his arm is held together the way it used to be

9:47

Kiermaier’s Piercing Green Eyes: Has Jose Alvarado shown enough control to be a legitimate late inning guy?

9:47

Jeff Sullivan: By leverage stats, he’s certainly been used that way

9:47

Jeff Sullivan: And his big-league FIP- is 56

9:48

Jeff Sullivan: He’s not exactly the most polished sort, but he’s more good than not good

9:49

Brood550: Is Dozier toast or has he just become a second half guy?

9:49

Jeff Sullivan: I don’t see anything too alarming here

9:50

Jeff Sullivan: Almost everything looks normal. He’s just missing a handful of hard hits. He’ll find them

9:50

Teddy Perkins: Mookie Betts has a .325 BABIP. This isn’t a question.

9:51

Jeff Sullivan: Kyle Freeland has a 9% walk rate

9:51

Jeff Sullivan: Are we just saying normal-looking statistics?

9:51

John: What’s the concern level for Alex Colome?

9:51

Jeff Sullivan: Far lower than a few weeks ago

9:53

Put me in coach: The Braves offense has 2.4 more WAR than the second most team in baseball. Please put into context.

9:53

Jeff Sullivan: You already did

9:54

Jeff Sullivan: Now, the Braves are also No. 1 in BABIP, so, you know, of course they’re *somewhat* overachieving. Weird to see them 26th in hard-hit rate

9:55

Jeff Sullivan: By expected wOBA, the Braves rank 15th

9:55

Jeff Sullivan: That’s actually big! I didn’t expect to find them so low

9:56

Jeff Sullivan: The Braves have baseball’s greatest difference between wOBA and expected wOBA. the Rays are next, and they also have a high BABIP

9:56

Dylan: Jason Vargas……..woof

9:56

Jeff Sullivan: Wilmer Font territory!

9:58

Michael Conforto: What do you make of Conforto’s slow start? Is he still hurt? Not as good as we thought based on last year? Or just having a lot of bad luck?

9:59

Jeff Sullivan: I don’t think this needs to be overthought. Conforto went through a major procedure. He’s probably still getting used to how his shoulder feels. He hasn’t fully recovered last year’s peak power, and from the looks of things his timing is probably off, which is not uncommon for someone fresh out of the rehab path

10:00

Jeff Sullivan: Likely to be a year of fits and starts, but Conforto is too talented to stay down for long

10:01

Rock Kickass: Any idea what the next big adjustment will be for pitchers and hitters?

10:01

Jeff Sullivan: It might not be *next*, but since everything is cyclical, you’re going to see more guys trying to hit for lower launch angles. Players who find they can get exposed against pitches up will adjust to try to hit those pitches, re-opening the lower half, etc

10:02

Sonny: If the first 6 weeks are illustrative of the whole season I’m very excited to watch the Red Sox and Yankees win 85% of their games for a stretch then cool off to 50% and watch the other shoot by over and over

10:02

Jeff Sullivan: I feel so bad for the other teams in that division

10:03

Jeff Sullivan: Like, it’s no wonder why the Rays started off so poorly

10:03

cuee: Is having a 200 wRC+ and a 0 wRC+ hitter in your lineup the same as having two 100 wRC+ hitters, assuming equivalent playing time? If not what level hitters would it be comparable to?

10:04

Jeff Sullivan: I think it would put you at a slight disadvantage, because the great hitter could be worked around, and the terrible hitter could be exploited in high-leverage situations

10:04

Jeff Sullivan: But in the long run it would be less damaging than you might think

10:04

Jake: I’m always a bit confused whenever a position player needs Tommy John. How does that happen? These guys aren’t throwing breaking balls. Can you really blow out your elbow just by throwing the ball from shortstop to first base?

10:04

Jeff Sullivan: I think we know the answer to that

10:06

Jeff Sullivan: Some infielders and outfielders put a lot of gas on their throws. They don’t always get to use consistent mechanics, situation to situation, and of course they build up reps over time, even if not at the same pace as pitchers

10:07

Jeff Sullivan: Wear and tear doesn’t develop at the same rate, but a ligament will bust if it’s pushed past its max. It can happen to anyone

10:09

cuee: What are your thoughts on Scott Kingery?

10:09

Jeff Sullivan: Good player. Going to improve. I think I’d like to see him be more aggressive earlier in counts

10:10

Jeff Sullivan: He has a very low swing rate with zero strikes. That’s not terrible by itself, because so does, say, Mike Trout, but I’m worried Kingery might be too passive for his own good

10:10

Jeff Sullivan: He’ll figure it out. He’s very talented

10:11

Bork: Hello, friend!

10:11

Jeff Sullivan: Hello friend

10:12

Vegan Man!: Solarte is off to a great start, but his exit velo and avg FB distance don’t jive with his current power numbers. Is he a 30 HR guy now, or is some power regression coming? Thanks!

10:13

Jeff Sullivan: I’ll say this for Solarte: easily his two highest exit velocities on record came this April

10:13

Jeff Sullivan: He might very well have gotten stronger. He’s not *this* good a hitter but I can buy that he’s improved

10:14

Jeff Sullivan: He also just plain looks bigger. I don’t know if that means anything

10:16

Vegan Man!: Brett Gardner is really struggling with the bat, should the Yankees be concerned, or still too early? Thanks!

10:17

Jeff Sullivan: I don’t think he’s too far off. I know the strikeouts are up, but his contact rate is actually somewhat *improved*

10:17

Jeff Sullivan: He’s probably due for one of those weeks where he hits like four home runs

10:17

Pie Eaton Contest: Vlad Jr, MiLB Level and wRC+
Rookie ball, 122
Low A, 151
High A, 179
AA, 199
Seems only reasonable that he’ll be around a 220 wRC+ at AAA and a 240 wRC+ upon arrival to the majors, right?

10:18

Jeff Sullivan: We call that pulling an Acuna

10:19

Ben: Last year we wondered if Albies possibly had 15hr power. Now it’s like….damn….is he gonna hit 30+??

10:19

Jeff Sullivan: In this day and age, you probably shouldn’t sleep on the power potential for anyone who’s demonstrated pretty solid bat control

10:20

Jeff Sullivan: As a 20-year-old in the major leagues, Albies made an above-average rate of contact. Should’ve known there could be more power in there

10:21

Matt: What’s the deal with Josh Bell? Not to split the all-too-young-season into smaller bits, but started HOT and is now quite cold over the last 2-3 weeks. Not even getting on base.

10:21

Jeff Sullivan: It’s not just him. The Pirates overall got off to a better start and have since cooled down

10:22

Jeff Sullivan: A big part of that is just a consequence of recently facing better pitching

10:22

Jeff Sullivan: Someone like Bell isn’t good enough to avoid this cycle of streaks and slumps. He’ll probably forever fluctuate around a wRC+ of like 110

10:22

Colin: Has your perception of Ketel Marte changed since the start of the season?

10:23

Jeff Sullivan: Take that article I wrote about Marte and replace every usage of his name with Nick Ahmed

10:23

Jeff Sullivan: There. I’m a genius!

10:24

Jeff Sullivan: Marte has a very weird profile right now. Hitting far more grounders, but also hitting for far more contact. His contact rate is 92%! He’s doing what 2017 Jonathan Lucroy did (which was bad)

10:25

Jeff Sullivan: I can’t imagine Marte keeps this up much longer. It’s not working

10:26

Southern Bleacher Bum: What is wrong with Carlos Carrasco and will he turn it around this season?

10:26

Jeff Sullivan: I don’t think anything is wrong

10:26

Jeff Sullivan: Sometimes a guy just has a bad game or two

10:26

Doctor Parrot: Re: the Paxton article. Can some changes really be that simple?

10:26

Jeff Sullivan: Some. Not many

10:28

Jeff Sullivan: Pitchers will often tell you that throwing good high fastballs isn’t as simple as just aiming the fastballs higher. No reason not to believe them. But Paxton makes pitching look so…easy, so smooth. His adjustment to a lower arm slot was simple, and that made so much of the difference a few years back

10:29

Vegan Man!: Luis Castillo looked better the other day (kept the walks down), optimistic about him going forward? Thank you!

10:29

Jeff Sullivan: Yeah, he’ll get there. I think he’s just had a few minor mechanical kinks

10:31

Turgid: What is going on with Goldschmidt? He’s striking out far worse than ever in his career. Can’t hit righties at all. Contact is slightly down. First pitch strike percentage is way up. The humidor is having some weird effects

10:32

Jeff Sullivan: Last year, Goldschmidt struck out looking 28 times. This year, he’s already up to 15

10:33

Jeff Sullivan: As you mentioned, his contact rate isn’t down by very much. And his overall batting line remains quite comfortably better than average. Guessing this is just going to look like a minor strikeout slump that evens out in time

10:34

Sean: Is there  a formula for xBABIP using not only batted-ball profile but speed/sprint score as an input?

10:34

Jeff Sullivan: Not a public one to my knowledge

10:34

Jeff Sullivan: At least not using Statcast data

10:34

Jeff Sullivan: But it probably wouldn’t be too hard to put a decent one together

10:36

Vegan Man!: Stroman reintroduced his cutter the other day and had his best outing of the year. Sign of better days to come? Thanks!

10:37

Jeff Sullivan: It’s a good step, especially since his slider hadn’t really been working that well for him in the early going. One of the hardest things to do when you have a broad repertoire is to know what to use when. Stroman’s too good not to eventually settle on the right mix

10:37

Jeff Sullivan: Assuming Stroman isn’t in some way injured, he’s too good to be bad, if that makes any sense

10:38

Southern Bleacher Bum: Which player is the better long term asset for the Rays? Daniel Robertson or Jose Alvarado?

10:38

Jeff Sullivan: You should pretty much always take the position player over the relief pitcher

10:38

Kawasaki Home Run: With Munenori Kawasaki retiring a couple of months ago, and Ichiro pseudo-retiring this week, what does this mean for us and humanity

10:38

Jeff Sullivan: We fade and we die

10:39

Jeff Sullivan: And if we accomplish enough before we retreat from public view, someone will honor us with a 25-second viral video

10:41

Concerned: What’s up with Matt Carpenter? He supposedly fixed his swing to be less power oriented because he didn’t want to hit .240 again, but here we are in May and he’s hitting below .200 with a ton of whiffs. What’s the deal?

10:41

Jeff Sullivan: Lately he’s made a lot more quality contact and the results just haven’t reflected his performance. He’s still putting almost everything in the air, which, welp. But I think we have Matt Carpenter again, even if he’s just the guy with the .240 average

10:43

Zip-a-dee-doo-da: Good afternoon Jeff!  Please rank breakouts from most to least sustainable: Haniger, Teoscar, and Soler.

10:43

Jeff Sullivan: Ehhhhhhh Haniger, Hernandez, Soler

10:43

Jeff Sullivan: But I think they’re all above-average hitters

10:43

Brian: I’m bummed that the Ichiro era is over.

10:43

Jeff Sullivan: I’m also bummed that the Ichiro era is over, but I would’ve been more bummed to see Ichiro try to keep playing for another five months

10:44

Jeff Sullivan: It’s probably better for everyone that they’ve arrived at this graceful transition

10:45

A big dumb idiot: Where would Vlad Jr be on your personal trade value ranking?

10:46

Jeff Sullivan: Probably a little outside the top ten

10:46

Jeff Sullivan: I place a high value on proven performance at the actual major-league level, but that’s the only remaining obstacle here

10:46

Charlie: So now that Kurt Suzuki has become Mike Piazza, do you see the Braves shipping Tyler Flowers, who had a pretty decent 2017, off to a team in desperate need of catching help?

10:46

Jeff Sullivan: Better for teams to have two quality catchers instead of one. Part of the reason why the Dodgers didn’t trade Yasmani Grandal just because they also have Austin Barnes

10:47

John Oleruds Helmet: Mr Jeff, do you think the Yankees make another big move to add a starting pitcher before the deadline?

10:48

Jeff Sullivan: I think that’ll depend on whether Gray gets this straightened out. He was supposed to be a multi-year impact addition

10:48

Normal Al: Is Jed Lowrie the most underrated player in baseball?

10:49

Jeff Sullivan: No, but he is underrated

10:49

Mike: Is Matt Davidson suddenly hitterish? He has tripled his walk rate, but still. This is weird.

10:49

Jeff Sullivan: I think he really is better. Almost wrote about him the other day. Probably still will. He’s another guy who might’ve taken a step forward by focusing on lower launch angles

10:49

Jeff Sullivan: Davidson has dropped his chase rate by 12 points. 12 points!

10:50

Justin: Cleveland bullpen without Miller is v bad, and Kluber not pitching this weekend (and Sale not pitching during series next week). This Yankees-run-through-every-good-team-in-the-AL-with-nary-a-day-off thing might not yet end for a bit. They’re pretty good.

10:50

Jeff Sullivan: Very good baseball team. They will obliterate pitchers

10:50

Brian CashGod: Red Sox get off to a historically good start, and yet we’re barely into May and they’re now only 1 game ahead of the Yankees. Meanwhile the Blue Jays look solid and the Rays aren’t as bad as many people thought – is the AL East going to be the most exciting division for the next 5 months?

10:51

Jeff Sullivan: Well, I doubt the Jays will keep up with the Sox and Yankees, and the Rays are basically playing for .500. But the division is good, even despite Chris Tillman being in it

10:51

Jeff Sullivan: AL East, AL West, and NL West all looking pretty interesting

10:52

Brandon Nimmo’s Smile: I deserve to be in the lineup at least. What do Mickey and Sandy know that we don’t? Or is it possible that the fans are smarter than them?

10:53

Jeff Sullivan: It’s just not easy to tell someone like Adrian Gonzalez “hey, you’re going to sit down now”

10:53

Jeff Sullivan: Especially when the likely replacement is an outfielder

10:53

Jeff Sullivan: But Bruce will end up getting reps at first, and that will create more of an opening

10:53

connor: ROS:  Shelby Miller or Jimmy Nelson?

10:53

Jeff Sullivan: pass

10:54

Lou: Can the Dodgers get Machado without Bueller and/or Walker?  Or if they want the O’s to absorb Kemp will they have to throw one in?

10:54

Jeff Sullivan: No way Buehler would be included for a half-season of Manny Machado

10:54

Jeff Sullivan: Buehler is too important to them right now

10:55

Vegan Man!: I know speed ages quicker than power, but is that true for the real burners (i.e. Dee Gordon)? Thanks!

10:55

Jeff Sullivan: Rajai Davis has a top-ten sprint speed, and he’s 37

10:57

Jeff Sullivan: Now, almost literally everyone else near the top of the list is far, far younger. And there’s more to good running than sprint speed. But Dee Gordon is 30 and fast. That strongly suggests that next year he’ll be 31 and fast

10:57

Jeff Sullivan: Put another way, in 2015 Gordon’s sprint speed was 29.2. This year it’s 29.5

10:59

Chuncey WIggins: So, do the Braves have one of the best outfields in baseball right now?

10:59

Jeff Sullivan: Probably not, but I’m increasingly open to the idea

11:00

Jeff Sullivan: Going to take a while before I believe that Nick Markakis is suddenly an All Star

11:00

Bryce: What do the Mariners do with their rotation with Erasmo out? Miranda or Leblanc? Or a prospect like Povse/Whalen?

11:00

Jeff Sullivan: Yes

11:01

Sean: Seems like we’re witnessing a lot of young talent breaking out and playing at a high level and also a lot of swing-change breakouts–yet offense is down, no?

11:01

Jeff Sullivan: Last year through May 3, the league had a .312 wOBA. This year, it’s .315

11:02

Matt: What’s with the changes in pitch info listed on FG? I just went to see if Chapman had a 2-seamer in his prior years, and looks like all 4- and 2-seamers are lumped together.

11:03

Jeff Sullivan: According to Pitch Info, Aroldis Chapman has basically only ever thrown four-seam fastballs

11:03

Oden: How riveted are you by Kilauea right now?   How focused on this should we non-vulcanologists be?

11:03

Jeff Sullivan: This is very very cool, with the unfortunate downside of likely property damage

11:03

Jeff Sullivan: But in a sense, that’s what you get for building on or near a volcano

11:04

Jeff Sullivan: This general area of the volcano erupted in the 50s. It was always going to happen again

11:04

Tyler: What kind of short term value does Tim Locastro (LAD OF) have.

11:04

Jeff Sullivan: Minimal

11:04

Southern Bleacher Bum: Worried about Addison Russell. Will the OPS ever get to a productive level?

11:04

Jeff Sullivan: With his defense, a wRC+ around 85 *is* a productive level

11:05

Jeff Sullivan: He’s making more contact without making more good contact. He’s probably always going to frustrate

11:05

Billy Beane: Hey Jeff, let’s assume BRett Anderson and Trevor Cahill are both moderately healthy. The A’s kinda look wildcardish, right? A great offense, and a decent rotation?

11:05

Jeff Sullivan: I’ve liked them for a while as a WC dark horse, but then they lost both Cotton and Puk to Tommy John surgery

11:06

Jeff Sullivan: Anderson and Cahill might turn out to be capable replacements but I have pretty obvious concerns about the both of them

11:06

I hate Keon Broxton: Is Franchy Cordero good, or is he just Keon Broxton 2.0?

11:07

Jeff Sullivan: Franchy Cordero is 23. When Keon Broxton was 23, he was slugging .359 in Double-A for the Diamondbacks

11:07

Derek: What kind of StatCast data is available to teams that isn’t available to the general public?

11:07

Jeff Sullivan: Everything

11:07

Jeff Sullivan: The teams get everything

11:08

Turgid: Is lil’ Marco Gonzales a good pitcher now?

11:08

Jeff Sullivan: I think he’s a fine pitcher. Good is still too strong

11:08

Jeff Sullivan: All right, I need to get rolling

11:08

Jeff Sullivan: So thank you everybody for hanging out, and I’m sorry for what I didn’t or couldn’t address. We’ll do it again next week at the same time, and until then, be well and have great days

We hoped you liked reading Jeff Sullivan FanGraphs Chat — 5/4/18 by Jeff Sullivan!

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Jeff made Lookout Landing a thing, but he does not still write there about the Mariners. He does write here, sometimes about the Mariners, but usually not.

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RE: a public xBABIP equation… Mike Podhorzer on the Rotographs side steps through his own one here: https://www.fangraphs.com/fantasy/gettin-shifty-with-it-introducing-the-new-xbabip/

You can also find xBABIP (using Statcast data) for every player on xStats.org (just click on the button for “xStats v2.9 Batters”). Basically the Batter and Pitcher sheets at xStats answer the question that Jeff always gets, “Is [player X] real?”