Jeff Sullivan FanGraphs Chat — 5/13/14

May 13, 2014

9:01	Jeff Sullivan: Hey guys

9:01	Jeff Sullivan: This is going to be a baseball chat just as soon as there are people in it

9:02	Jeff Sullivan: And now there are people in it!

9:02	Comment From toot toot hey you’re on time

9:02	Jeff Sullivan: From a separate location because I don’t have internet in my new apartment.

9:02

Jeff Sullivan: I *did* have internet in my new apartment, and then a construction worker literally cut the cable! The physical cable!

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9:03	Comment From Tony G. Hi Jeff. Hope all is well. The Twins seem to be giving Eduardo Nunez and Danny Santana increased playing time of late. Do either of the two players have much upside, and which one is likelier to play more ROS? Thanks!

9:04	Jeff Sullivan: Eduardo Nunez is a known entity, with more offensive upside than defensive upside. He’s not young and he’s not good. Danny Santana has a career minor-league OPS of .711. You’re gonna want to stay away from this.

9:04	Jeff Sullivan: Danny Santana is a fun name to say, but I suspect he’s less fun a player to watch.

9:05	Comment From Awake in Seattle Reports out this morning saying that Seattle will sign Xavier Nady. Right, because if there’s one thing the Mariners really need, it’s another sub-par OF!

9:05	Comment From Chris Do you think the mariners trade for an OF anytime soon?

9:07

Jeff Sullivan: I don’t really see the point of Xavier Nady in that, while he’s right-handed, he’s not really superior to, say, Cole Gillespie, and I don’t know anything about Cole Gillespie. I just happen to know enough about Xavier Nady. I don’t think the Mariners trade for a meaningful OF anytime soon when they might just see about Nick Franklin

9:07	Jeff Sullivan: Really, just don’t expect moves league-wide for about another month, at least

9:08	Comment From Guest After this year BJ Upton will be owed 3/46 and Jayson Werth will be owed 3/63. Whom do you prefer?

9:08	Jeff Sullivan: Werth, because he isn’t bad

9:08	Comment From clint h with the injury to fernandez limiting the marlins hopes for 2014 and 2015 and tight races in the Easts and Wests, are they now much more likely to trade stanton at the All Star break this year?

9:09

Jeff Sullivan: The Marlins still think they can re-sign him and they very well might be able to. It’s not like they really had their sights set on winning in 2014 anyway. They might make a run at signing him and then put him on the market this coming offseason, but I really don’t see a way Stanton ends up part of a midseason blockbuster. They can do better months later than that

9:09	Comment From Jose Fernandez Why me, Lord?

9:09	Jeff Sullivan: It’s not just you

9:10	Comment From juan pierres mustache /cuts off own elbow as sacrifice to the baseball gods

9:11

Jeff Sullivan: One of the things that first turned me off about football, before all the concussion stuff, was how it seemed like players got hurt all the time and lineups would constantly have to adjust to injury absences. Baseball is developing a problem where you want to love the pitchers but you just can’t rely on them and really put your faith in them. It’s tough on them and it’s tough on the fan psychology because pitchers are so easy to embrace, yet they so frequently come apart

9:12	Jeff Sullivan: It’s not a crisis — there are still a lot more healthy pitchers than injured pitchers — but it’s going to be a problem, down the road, if pitchers do end up getting hurt more. People want to fall in love with players, and you don’t fall in love with a player on the training table.

9:12	Comment From Brian Dozier Jeff, where were you able to find all of Hosmer’s baserunning gaffes this year? Similarly, is there a way to track down all of the times a player has done something like gone first to third or scored from second on a single?

9:13	Jeff Sullivan: The slow way is going through the Baseball-Reference Play Index for a team and just searching for the text you want. So, I searched through all the Royals’ plate appearances for “Hosmer out at”, or something like that

9:13	Comment From chris Have we already seen the best of Shelby Miller?

9:13	Jeff Sullivan: I suspect down the road he’ll have a handful of seasons worth more than 2 WAR

9:13	Jeff Sullivan: Probably not this one though

9:14	Comment From Mark Hey Jeff, what we expect to see from Rafael Montero this season?

9:17	Jeff Sullivan: Pretty good success against righties, more inconsistent success against lefties, some dependency on Juan Lagares, and a bit of a higher contact rate than you might like to see from a top-level pitching prospect

9:17	Jeff Sullivan: The challenge is trying to translate numbers out of a place like Las Vegas, but fortunately a few starts into his major-league career, we’ll be able to stop paying attention to his triple-A performance

9:19	Comment From Mariners fan Hey Jeff! thoughts on Matt Wieters? should i drop him or is he going to avoid surgery?

9:20

Jeff Sullivan: If he were a pitcher, he’d probably be screwed. But that’s my frame of reference and I know less about how position players are when it comes to dealing with tears like this. Given that I am not Matt Wieters or his doctor, I can’t actually give you an answer, but it sure seems like it’s entirely up to your own comfort level and amount of roster depth?

9:20	Comment From fidel projected line for jose abreau?

9:20	Jeff Sullivan: ZiPS says he slugs .520. Steamer says he slugs .540. Expect a line similar to his line now, with a SLG that starts with a 5 instead of a 6

9:22	Comment From Daniel B What do you think of Arenado ROS? He’s weirdly overshadowed I feel like by everything else going on out there. I know defense is legit, but how big is his off regression going to be?

9:23	Jeff Sullivan: Well, he’s newly 23, and his peripherals are all similar with more power than he hit for a season ago. Wouldn’t surprise me at all to see him end up with a triple-digit wRC+, and in fact ZiPS and Steamer project him to be almost exactly league-average the rest of the way

9:24	Jeff Sullivan: Interestingly, all of his dingers this year have been at home. But he’s also doubled nine times on the road so it’s not like he’s completley without a power stroke elsewhere

9:25	Comment From Peter S. Alcides going to keep up his production? Or is his .OBP going to plummet? Thinking about using him to replace Miller.

9:25	Jeff Sullivan: “plummet” is too strong

9:25	Comment From Matt Why don’t hitters have LOB% numbers? I understand there’s a difference between hitting first and hitting sixth, but couldn’t you still build a formula that says a player is getting left on base too often?

9:26	Jeff Sullivan: I think we just don’t care about a hitter’s number of runs scored

9:26	Comment From DreadedRearAdmiral Brewers gonna slide Reynolds to 3B when aramis is out? i think the crew will be outta 1st by june 1st; their poor depth is getting exposed

9:26	Jeff Sullivan: June 1 is two and a half weeks away and they have a 5.5-game lead on a sub-.500 Cardinals team

9:27	Jeff Sullivan: They’re not a deep team and they’re not a great team but nobody else in that division has shown up and it’s not like the Brewers haven’t put themselves in a good position

9:28	Comment From Rick Matt Kemp stole two bases last night…so would assume his injury issues are, for the most part, in the rearview mirror…why isn’t he playing like vintage Kemp?

9:28	Jeff Sullivan: He has a 134 wRC+, against a career 126 wRC+

9:29	Jeff Sullivan: He’s also been absolutely terrible in the outfield, probably because the injury issues are, for the most part, not in the rear-view mirror

9:29	Comment From Huey Can G.RIchards maintain this production all year?

9:30	Jeff Sullivan: People have been waiting for something like this. He’s not ERA-in-the-2s good, but he’s ERA-in-the-low-3s good

9:30	Comment From BigBounceyBlueBalls Do the Jays extend Rasmus, or go with Gose in 2015 and beyond? I don’t think Gose hits enough to be a major league player.

9:31	Jeff Sullivan: Yeah, the major problem with Gose is that he is bad

9:32	Jeff Sullivan: At the same time, Rasmus is like some weird similar version of Josh Hamilton. I wouldn’t be surprised if the Jays want to move on, and it’s entirely possible their 2015 CF isn’t currently in the organization

9:33	Comment From Paul How long ’til Familia takes over in Queens?

9:33	Jeff Sullivan: Few weeks? There’s nothing actually blocking him for real

9:34	Comment From Dave Worried about J. Zimmermann? Giving up nearly 3 hits more per 9. SSS or legitimate concern?

9:34	Jeff Sullivan: Strikeouts also up from 19% to 23%

9:34	Jeff Sullivan: No change in walks or anything else

9:34	Jeff Sullivan: What’s the word for the opposite of worried?

9:35	Comment From The Ghost of Jose Fernandezs UCL We all know Lindor’s glove will play at MLB level, but is his bat any better than Cabrera’s?

9:36	Jeff Sullivan: Right now, today, no, probably not. But Lindor is 20 years old and Cabrera has a career wRC+ of 105. Lindor’s going to compare wel

9:37	Comment From kevinthecomic When did MLB start the DL? I recall Yogi Berra, or some other old timey baseball player, saying something like ‘if there was a DL when I played, I wasn’t aware of it”

9:37	Jeff Sullivan: We can all learn something!

9:37	Jeff Sullivan: http://www.baseballprospect…

9:37	Jeff Sullivan: “In response, the National League created the first official disabled list on July 12, 1915; it allowed players to be removed from the roster for a ten-day recuperation period. Even though they were not allowed to play, injured players could remain with the team as a “coacher.”

9:38	Comment From Fish Speaking of players that are fun to watch: Jose Fernandez. Damn.

9:38

Jeff Sullivan: It gets overused, but baseball really is a far better sport with Jose Fernandez in it. Fernandez has achieved popular stardom despite playing for the Marlins. Imagine if he played for a bigger market. He’d be everything. Everywhere. He’d be one of the five most popular players in baseball.

9:40

Comment From _David_
Yesterday Lloyd McClendon used a challenge on a top of the wall double that never had any chance of being a HR. On at least two other occasions he’s neglected to challenge obvious overturns that were both high leverage enough (and one ended up costing 3 runs and nearly the game). Is this just part of the learning curve, or evidence of incompetence?

9:40	Jeff Sullivan: Wasn’t a challenge — just asked for a review. I guess there’s a difference

9:40	Comment From Rated Rookie How (well) are you guarding/indulging in your optimism for young Taijuan?

9:40	Jeff Sullivan: For one thing, I actually like Paxton more

9:41	Jeff Sullivan: But while I’m monitoring their recoveries, and while I’m encouraged by what I’ve heard about their recoveries, I’m not assuming a single thing. If they make it back, they make it back, and then that’ll be neat for as long as they’re around

9:41	Comment From Guest Are these the real versions of Ackley and Smoak?

9:42	Jeff Sullivan: Smoak is basically the same as last year. Ackley is bad + three consecutive home runs, but since you can’t just throw those out, yeah, I can buy Ackley as a league-average hitter now

9:42	Comment From Anon21 Is batter-pitcher history important, not because it reveals the “true” state of the matchup but because batters and pitchers know about it, and it affects their approaches?

9:43

Jeff Sullivan: I think there’s definitely something to be said for the perception of ownership or evenness. What’s important isn’t what the numbers say — what’s important is what the players themselves actually think, and they think about that kind of data. Still doesn’t mean there’s a lot to it, though, aside from “maybe he’ll pitch this guy differently today”

9:43	Comment From Joe Has Samardzija turned from a thrower into a pitcher, or has he just had a good month?

9:44	Jeff Sullivan: I think he’s learning something about efficiency

9:44	Comment From toot toot is jon lester elite

9:45	Jeff Sullivan: Looks to be back at that level. You might call him a second-tier No. 1, pending the rest of his season, but yeah, he’s real good

9:45	Jeff Sullivan: I believe he also finished last season strongly

9:47	Comment From _David_ James Jones?

9:47	Jeff Sullivan: Almonte relief

9:47	Comment From Alex what do you think of dave’s rhetorical alternative baseball?

9:48

Jeff Sullivan: One of those things where it’s just absolutely impossible to objectively evaluate the idea. We’re all biased by the sport we grew up with and it’s impossible to open your mind to such a completely radical idea. I sense that it would be fun and it could absolutely work. I also sense that baseball as it currently is is fixable if they would just hurry the god damned thing up

9:49	Jeff Sullivan: Last week the Rays and Indians played a nine-inning game that ended 6-3 and it took 250 minutes

9:49	Jeff Sullivan: That’s not baseball, that’s prison

9:49	Comment From Guest any idea on what the drop off in average is between pitches in the zone and and pitches out of the zone (hr included)?

9:49	Jeff Sullivan: Give me one minute:

9:51	Jeff Sullivan: Well, a couple minutes

9:53	Jeff Sullivan: According to Baseball Savant, on contact, there’s a .337 average on pitches in the zone and a .282 average on pitches out of the zone

9:53	Jeff Sullivan: But, pitches out of the zone get hit for less power, and this also ignores strikes, which mostly happen out of the zone. Beyond that, there’s out of the zone and there’s REALLY out of the zone

9:54	Comment From TJ Are the Braves working Alex Wood out of the pen to manage his innings or do they think Floyd & Harang are better options at SP? …and why do teams hate 6 man rotations so much? Never understood that.

9:54	Jeff Sullivan: https://twitter.com/mlbbowm…

9:55	Jeff Sullivan: It’s a manage-innings thing. He probably ought to have a more defined role but for now Wood will get some starts and some relief appearances and eventually there will be an opening for him to return to the rotation more full-time.

9:55	Jeff Sullivan: I suspect teams hate 6-man rotations because pitchers hate 6-man rotations. It isn’t familiar and they’re all creatures of their own routines

9:56	Comment From Murray Hello, and thank you, for answering my question. Do you think Allen Craig and Carlos Santana are going to come around and start hitting? Have you seen anything that makes you think positively about their chances of turning it around?

9:56	Jeff Sullivan: Craig’s hit .304/.361/.554 over his last 61 plate appearances

9:58

Jeff Sullivan: Santana has also been better lately and he seems like totally a BABIP thing. You wonder if Santana could be a little messed up on account of what’s going on with him defensively, but there’s no reason for me to believe that Santana just can’t hit anymore. It’s all in there and he’s a hot streak away from being just fine

9:59	Comment From Tim What should the Royals do at 3B to maximize their chances of winning this season?

9:59	Jeff Sullivan: Petition to have the position removed from the field of play