Jeff Sullivan FanGraphs Chat — 5/14/13

May 14, 2013

9:05	Jeff Sullivan: It’s always something, isn’t it? This time my router wasn’t working. All right, full steam ahead!

9:06	Jeff Sullivan: Is this working? Is this working yet?

9:07	Jeff Sullivan: Okay, weird CiL hiccup. Uhhhh this has not been a very promising start

9:07	Jeff Sullivan: Let’s turn to the audience for questions!

9:07	Comment From Aaron So the Braves and their strikeouts became a big deal over the weekend as many Braves fans and radio hosts freaked out over a 3 game losing streak to a good team on the road. I know you’ve written on it, but any new thoughts?

9:09	Jeff Sullivan: No new thoughts. The Braves are going to strike out a little more than most teams do, but that’s only one of their characteristics. Why would the strikeouts matter more now, as opposed to when the Braves were 12-1? Why was it fine then, and problematic in May?

9:09	Jeff Sullivan: A fun fact that I just tweeted out: the Braves, for all their strikeouts, actually have an above-average rate of making productive outs.

9:09	Jeff Sullivan: Not that I give a hoot about productive outs, but if the Braves are having trouble playing smallball, well, there’s evidence to the contrary.

9:10	Jeff Sullivan: The Braves are fine and not as good as they looked. People are overreacting to their own initial overreactions, which, that’s people for you.

9:10	Comment From jesse 9 am pst??? what is that, it noon here, is that metric or something? Im confused

9:10	Jeff Sullivan: Like I ever start one of these things on time

9:10	Comment From Pete Who do you think the best and worst managers in MLB are?

9:10	Jeff Sullivan: Based on nothing but my own personal feelings, Joe Maddon and Eric Wedge. In both cases I am biased and I’m wide open to disagreement

9:10	Comment From Langdon Alger Jeff, do you like memes? If so, which is your favorite?

9:10	Jeff Sullivan: Most of the time I hate the internet

9:11	Comment From Tom I think the Colin Wyers piece on Heyman and WAR is really good and makes some good points. Do you agree?

9:11	Jeff Sullivan: Haven’t read it but I’m sure there are good points and most importantly, look at where we are — a national baseball writer is citing WAR and not dismissing it right away

9:11	Jeff Sullivan: Heyman wants to understand what WAR is and how it works. That’s amazing!

9:12	Comment From Queries from the Clown, bro Aaron Hicks: do you applaud the Twins for sticking by him through his rough MLB start or would you have let him start the year at AAA?

9:13	Jeff Sullivan: I would’ve started him in the minors, but once the Twins decided to keep him with the big club, it would’ve been a shot to his confidence to get demoted within a month. So I think the Twins have done the right thing after doing the wrong thing

9:13	Comment From Queries from the Clown, bro Is the resurgence of Scott Kazmir your favorite 2013 baseball story so far?

9:13	Jeff Sullivan: It’s one of them, but I’m also enjoying the struggles of the Angels and the Dodgers and the success of the Yankees because go to hell, attempted pre-season narratives

9:13	Comment From Kyle chances josh willingham gets traded to a contender this summer?

9:13	Jeff Sullivan: decent

9:13	Jeff Sullivan: half-decent

9:15	Comment From _David_ World Series game 7, the team you’re managing up by one, 9th inning, two outs. Your decent closer is in. Up next are ’04 Barry Bonds, ’04 Barry Bonds, and ’04 Barry Bonds, and ’13 Brendan Ryan. Do you walk the bases loaded? (Assume the catcher doesn’t suck.)

9:15	Jeff Sullivan: this is the hardest question I have ever received in a chat or any form of communication

9:16	Jeff Sullivan: I pitch to the first Bonds. His chances of hitting a home run are pretty low, all things considered. From there, if Bonds doesn’t get out, I reconsider and I think about getting to Ryan, depending on the initial outcome.

9:17	Comment From Monty Cleveland Indians! Are they really this good?

9:18	Jeff Sullivan: They’re on a 92-win pace, and they’re probably a little worse than that, but they aren’t way worse than that so they could be able to make a lot of noise for several months. While they’re not Tigers-good, they’re fringe-WC good in my estimation

9:18	Jeff Sullivan: This seems like a good time to consult the FG standings page!

9:18	Jeff Sullivan: http://www.fangraphs.com/depthcharts.aspx?position=Standings

9:19	Jeff Sullivan: Indians projected to finish 82-80. Maybe you want to bump that up a few wins. They’re fine, overall

9:19	Comment From The old professor Do older players, statistically start slower and ” warm up” as the weather improves, more so than younger players? I’m thinking of Pujols specifically.

9:20	Jeff Sullivan: Can’t think of a study off the top of my head, so I don’t know. Intuitively it might make some sense, but from the other perspective maybe they start stronger and wear down faster. There are arguments you could make either way

9:20	Comment From Queries from the Clown, bro There’s a joke itching to be made comparing the pace of this chat to Yu’s slow curve but I am not that mean 🙂 Thanks for all you do Jeff.

9:20	Jeff Sullivan: I swear that this time I was all prepared. I was right here, ready to chat! And then my internet went down, and then the chat window wouldn’t work. It’s fate. These will forever be tardy.

9:20	Comment From Bill Over/under 3.5 WAR for Iwakuma this year?

9:21	Jeff Sullivan: Over. He’s already at 1.4 by one measure and 2.1 by another. By FIP WAR, it’s going to be close, but I think he’s got what it takes

9:21	Comment From lemonverbena Was your ethernet card lacking a dongle?

9:22	Jeff Sullivan: yeah probably

9:22	Comment From Guest Andino and Ryan are hitting something like .160 combined. How long until the Mariners do something, and can Franklin/Triunfel actually play the position?

9:23

Jeff Sullivan: The Mariners aren’t going to rush a prospect because of what’s going on on the big-league club. So they’ll bring up Franklin or Triunfel when they feel like they’re ready for the challenge. They’d give either one of those guys an opportunity to play short, but realistically they’re not long-term shortstops and a year or two down the road the M’s will probably be playing Brad Miller

9:23	Jeff Sullivan: There would be a greater sense of urgency if the Mariners were contending

9:23	Comment From Naveed Considering contract status, how many pitchers in baseball have more trade value than Madison Bumgarner?

9:23	Jeff Sullivan: Very few of them

9:24	Comment From Bernard Fun facts to know and share: the Mets drafted 766 pitchers between Gooden and Harvey

9:24	Jeff Sullivan: Here’s looking at you, Bobby Keppel

9:24	Comment From Queries from the Clown, bro Jean Segura is pretty freaking good

9:25	Jeff Sullivan: 26 career minor-league home runs. Surprise!

9:25	Jeff Sullivan: One is reminded now of the state of the Angels’ minor-league system

9:25

Comment From CecilFielder
How much faith do you have in the ZIPS & Steamer ROS projections? For example, Rizzo’s ROS counting stats would place him as the number 1 or 2 first baseman at season’s end. I like Rizzo, but do you actually expect him to outperform Encarnacion, Pujols, Goldschmidt ROS like the ZIPS & Steamer projections do? How would you rank those 4 ROS?

9:27	Jeff Sullivan: I have as much faith in them as I have in any decent projection system, which is to say, overall I trust them and in individual cases I disagree. They basically project Goldschmidt and Rizzo to be very similar the rest of the way, which seems reasonable to me.

9:28	Jeff Sullivan: I’d definitely rank Rizzo ahead of Pujols because Pujols is old and fragile and actively breaking apart. Pujols terrifies me, for a guy who’s still a reasonably productive hitter

9:29	Comment From Wobatus Catcher who is 3rd in sw% among all with 100 PA or more, on a 4 WAR per 500 AB pace, who isn’t named A.J. Ellis. name him:

9:29	Jeff Sullivan: I’ll let you tell me

9:29	Jeff Sullivan: if I find your response in the queue!

9:29	Comment From Bernard If you’re Joe Girardi, how do you sort out the OF playing time situation with Granderson’s return?

9:30	Jeff Sullivan: I start taking time away from Ichiro, because he hasn’t earned it and Wells has done more. Gardner, I stick with as a regular. So basically you have Gardner, Granderson, and one of Wells/Ichiro depending on the day

9:30	Comment From _David_ It might not be Wedge’s fault at all, but if, say, Ackley’s agent thought the team’s undervaluing walks was hurting his client’s career and massively reducing future pay -is player development/coaching something agents ever complain to the team about?

9:31	Jeff Sullivan: Very very seldom, and in this case it’s up to Ackley to figure things out. He’s not broken because the Mariners have told him to be more aggressive. He’s broken because his approach and swing are messed up

9:32	Jeff Sullivan: Even in the event of coaching staff incompetence, they know more about baseball than baseball agents do

9:32	Comment From Three Fingers Stump As a Sens fan, did you take any joy in watching the Leafs choke?

9:32	Jeff Sullivan: heavens yes, and I can’t stand the Bruins

9:32	Comment From Anon21 T/F: Watching a preternaturally gifted athlete like Andrelton Simmons make a spectacular play is greatest aesthetic experience that baseball provides.

9:33	Jeff Sullivan: Torn between this and watching Clayton Kershaw’s curveball

9:33	Comment From Marty This chat is like a Phil Humber first inning

9:33	Jeff Sullivan: One of these days I’ll pitch a chat perfect game

9:34	Comment From Wobatus Was signing Rick Ankiel a really dumb move by Mets?

9:34	Jeff Sullivan: Not really dumb. Curious, but their outfield sucks and Ankiel is interesting in both good and bad ways. Of course, I’d prefer they look younger, but things being what they are…

9:34	Comment From Sweet Lou Rafael Montero is destroying AA. Why isn’t there any helium surrounding him?

9:34	Jeff Sullivan: because we’re on the planet Earth

9:34	Comment From Danny Espinosa Can I stick in the league with my K rate? Is my defense really good enough to keep me around? (maybe with a trade to a team that needs a shortstop?)

9:36	Jeff Sullivan: Good news! Your K% is down from 29% to 23% so far between 2012 and 2013. You’re a little BABIP away from being productive enough. You can make it — you’re just seldom going to be consistent

9:36	Jeff Sullivan: To put it another way, Espinosa had consecutive 3+ WAR full seasons with a bunch of strikeouts. I think that counts as proof of concept

9:37	Comment From Bernard I have tickets to CC vs Felix tonight. How excited should I be scaled to VORV (Value Over Replacement Volcano)?

9:37	Jeff Sullivan: relative to a volcano you should be 0 excited

9:37	Jeff Sullivan: relative to a stupid pathetic regular mountain you should be 8 excited

9:37	Comment From Wobatus Paul Konerko done?

9:38	Jeff Sullivan: Highly doubt it

9:38	Comment From Queries from the Clown, bro was anybody writing articles begging Ken Griffey Jr. not to play so hard/run into walls at the time?

9:38	Jeff Sullivan: There probably would’ve been some stuff along those lines in 1995, when he busted his wrist

9:38	Jeff Sullivan: But there used to be a lot less publicly available baseball writing

9:38	Comment From Jeff So if the New-Baldo is at least a little like Old-Baldo, and new Kazmir is at least effective, the Indians have a chance to be a playoff contender, yes?

9:38	Jeff Sullivan: You bet!

9:39	Comment From Sweet Lou Which disappointment would you bet on to return to above average – Haren, Dickey, Dunn, Lawrie?

9:40	Jeff Sullivan: I’ll go with Lawrie, with Dickey not far behind

9:41	Comment From JackMorris Do you still think David Price is a top 10-15 starter this season? What about Gio? Concerned about either yet?

9:42	Jeff Sullivan: Not really worried about either. I think Gio probably hit his peak in 2012, since he’s never going to have much in the way of precise command, but I like them both as very good starting pitchers in their respective leagues

9:42	Comment From The Humber Games Think Grandal starts in the minors or gets plugged right in once his suspension is up?

9:42	Jeff Sullivan: I don’t have inside info, but I suspect the minors, given the way Hundley has been hitting in his stead

9:43	Comment From Queries from the Clown, bro Is Bartolo Colon ageless?

9:43	Jeff Sullivan: No, he has an age

9:43	Comment From Too Many Joes I realize you have many awesome things you already do, but Worst Pitches (result) was maybe my favorite baseball column ever. If you get a chance to bring it back on a limited basis (monthly? Bimonthly? Yearly?) I would probably wet myself with excitement.

9:43	Jeff Sullivan: I don’t think this is something I’d be doing regularly, but I could see myself doing it once a month or so, so, thanks for the idea!

9:43	Comment From lemonverbena Your USSM post outlines how Ackley isn’t walking and is getting progressively worse as a hitter. If you had to guess, are Ackley’s problems mental? Is he simply “pressing”, or is this the real Dustin Ackley?

9:45

Jeff Sullivan: I don’t think he’s pressing, in that I don’t think he’s mentally overwhelmed, but I don’t think he’s made the right adjustments and it’s possible that pitchers are exploiting some hole that Ackley has yet to patch. The walks and strikeouts make little sense given Ackley’s patience and contact numbers, but now they’re sustaining. I don’t know who the real Dustin Ackley is, at this point. I don’t think he does, either, and that’s part of the problem.

9:45	Comment From Kate Upton: Fantasy MVP The Angels are now 10 games back from the Rangers. What percentage of alternate universes exist where the Angels manage to win the AL West? 1%? 5%?

9:46	Jeff Sullivan: Maybe 2%? 3%? Baseball Prospectus says 5.3%, but that strikes me as a little high, for no reason in particular. Maybe I’m biased by how bad the Angels have been for a month and a half

9:46	Comment From LarryA What does it mean when you baseball writer types say “first-division player”? Is Chris Nelson a first division player?

9:47	Jeff Sullivan: It means the writer is overcomplicating a simple concept, the way scouts do. I think the idea is that a first-division player can play in the toughest division in the league. It’s not something I’d ever think about, myself.

9:48	Comment From David Honestly, the only two fan bases who really should be panicing are those in TOR and LAA

9:48	Jeff Sullivan: I think Yankees fans could rightfully panic about the possible presence of witchcraft

9:48	Comment From patriot Does Boston lefthander Felix Doubront’s FIP of 2.83 and BABIP of .420 belie his 6.40 ERA in 32.1 innings this season?

9:50

Jeff Sullivan: When a guy has a bad ERA and good peripherals, sometimes it’s the guy’s fault, but more often, things are bound to regress in a positive direction. Now, Doubront has a .331 BABIP for his career. But that career doesn’t yet span 230 innings, so it also needs to be heavily regressed. The likelihood is that Doubront is okay

9:50	Comment From Zack Is it Wheeler time yet?

9:50	Jeff Sullivan: Give it a month

9:51	Jeff Sullivan: http://espn.go.com/blog/new-york/mets/post/_/id/66712/will-arbitration-influence-wheeler-arrival?

9:51	Comment From zack Better rest of season: Josh Hamilton or Vernon Wells? Seriously, I’m not sure.

9:51	Jeff Sullivan: Hamilton, by not nearly enough of a margin

9:51	Comment From jesse it became an issue because there was an instance where the braves had a man on 3rd with one out and followed with 2 Ks. Anecdotal evidence is what talk radio is about

9:53	Jeff Sullivan: This year, when there’s a runner on third and fewer than two out, the league average is 50% scoring. The Braves come in at 54%, fifth-best in MLB. How about that

9:53	Jeff Sullivan: The Marlins have the second-worst conversion rate and they seldom strike out

9:53	Comment From Anon21 That Bryce Harper wall collision was hard to watch, and I don’t even like the guy. How does a person who’s been playing professional baseball all his life just run full tilt into the fence like that?

9:54	Jeff Sullivan: Because he’s been conditioned to care only about getting the baseball, and because he’s still relatively new to the outfield, all things considered. There aren’t a lot of opportunities to practice balls in play like this one.

9:54	Comment From Dave M Rangers and Bruins, who wins in how many games?

9:54	Jeff Sullivan: Bruins in 6

9:55	Comment From Ivan I have a keeper AL league is it time to give up on blanton

9:55	Jeff Sullivan: um yes

9:55	Comment From Josh Dowd Any options to shoring up the Mariners back end of their rotation?

9:55	Jeff Sullivan: The guys they have should do better, and Hultzen/Paxton approach. Beavan’s around but he’s Beavan. It’s a real shame Erasmo Ramirez is probably lost for al ong time

9:55

Comment From Conflicted in Birdland
Jeff, I’m having a serious existential quandary here. I couldn’t sleep last night. I’m in second place in my keeper league and my team looks awesome for this season. However, I’m an Orioles fan, and I love owning Adam Jones and Chris Davis. I want to complete the fantasy/real-life symmetry by acquiring Machado, but so far I’ve been rebuffed, including my offer of Wright, Price, and Kimbrel, and I’m thinking about taking it even further. Here’s my question: would you rather pay a heavy price to own your favorite players, and hurt your chances this year, or stay at the top, and watch Machado blow up on another guy’s team? Would you rather finish last and own your favorite player or finish first and not own him? Thanks.

9:57

Jeff Sullivan: I’d rather finish first and not own him, because how much you like a player should be independent of whether or not you own him on your fantasy team, and there’s satisfaction to be gained from finishing first in a league. Say Machado’s good. In one situation, you’re happy about your team and about Machado. In another situation, you’re less happy about your team and happy about Machado. Which wins?

9:57	Jeff Sullivan: I am not good at fantasy baseball

9:58	Jeff Sullivan: If anything I’d rather have a team of my least favorite players, so that way I’m covered no matter what happens

9:59	Comment From Derp Vernon Wells has as many HR as Pujols and Hamilton combined

9:59	Jeff Sullivan: and 2.1 more WAR

9:59	Comment From Bubba Is James Jones getting interesting? How long until Nick Franklin? Gotta at least take a look, right?

9:59	Jeff Sullivan: Jones is getting re-interesting and Franklin might be a month or so off depending on his sustainability

9:59	Comment From zack Will Carlos Beltran’s postseason performances be enough to get him into the hall of fame?