Jeff Sullivan FanGraphs Chat — 5/20/14

May 20, 2014

9:07	Jeff Sullivan: Reaaaalllly can’t stand Cover It Live

9:07	Jeff Sullivan: Hey guys! Problems all solved now! Let’s talk about Dallas Keuchel!

9:08	Jeff Sullivan: And remember that I don’t answer fantasy questions because I haven’t played fantasy baseball in a decade and I can’t give you any worthwhile advice. Also, the questions annoy literally everyone but the asker

9:08	Jeff Sullivan: So if you’re going to ask a fantasy baseball question, at least try to disguise it as a real baseball question because I can handle some of those

9:09	Comment From American League Hustle Anything you can tell me about Chase Whitley? I’m intrigued by the 10.9 K/9 rate he posted in the minors this season before getting called up…

9:10	Jeff Sullivan: Not really a starter, not really a reliever, throws a lot of a changeup

9:11	Jeff Sullivan: He’s always thrown strikes and he’s always run some pretty good contact rates. Not a groundball guy but not a fly ball guy.

9:11	Jeff Sullivan: He hasn’t shown really that he has the durability to be a regular starter, but he’s a reasonably interesting swing man because he’s already got the built-in offspeed pitch that’s given younger hitters fits

9:11	Comment From RK Think there’s any chance Morrison skips rehab to replace C. Hart?

9:12	Jeff Sullivan: And then the Mariners just have a different bad player

9:12	Jeff Sullivan: Hart’s ok. He’s just in a rough spot

9:12	Comment From Bruce Where does the term “tools of ignorance” come from?

9:12	Jeff Sullivan: http://www.baseball-referen…

9:12	Comment From Tony G. As of June 1, 2014, who will be closing in Baltimore?

9:13	Jeff Sullivan: I assume it’s going to be Hunter, because no one in there is meaningfully better than him

9:14	Comment From Chief Wahoo My boys knocked off the big bad Tigers last night. Is this the start of another magic season for the Beleiveland Windians from Brohio?

9:14	Jeff Sullivan: Almost everything about this query is obnoxious!

9:14	Comment From Zac Corey Kluber is pretty damn good.

9:14	Jeff Sullivan: Old news, 2014 is Keuchel territory

9:15	Comment From Angels in the Outfield Predictions on who will get sent down today for David Freese, and later on this week when Calhoun is ready?

9:17	Jeff Sullivan: Cron and Jimenez? Navarro is also an option, and I can’t tell the extent to which the Angels will want to preserve some OF flexibility. But while it seems like this is going to be somewhat difficult, there are guys on the roster they aren’t going to miss in the short-term

9:18	Comment From Xolo What are the odds that Seth Smith gets Drew’d/Morales’d this winter?

9:18	Jeff Sullivan: Success be damned, right now I think it might be 25% he gets a qualifying offer

9:18	Jeff Sullivan: At the end of the day, it’s Seth Smith, with less than 10 career WAR

9:19	Comment From Jay What kind of effect does Nolan Arenado’s range have on Tulowitzki’s UZR? And has there ever been a stronger left side of the infield?

9:20	Jeff Sullivan: I suspect there is not much of an effect — there isn’t really that much overlap between short and third, realistically speaking. Even the challenging balls that Tulo gets to to his right, they’re basically out of Arenado’s reach

9:21	Jeff Sullivan: In short, I don’t think they’re positioned that differently on account of one another

9:21	Jeff Sullivan: As for the second question, Ozzie Smith and anybody

9:22	Comment From Graham Why do some teams (the Reds and Twins are both bad about this) wait so long to put players on the DL? I understand they’re waiting to see if the player can avoid a DL stint, but 6-8 games with a short bench is a pain.

9:22	Jeff Sullivan: Balancing against the loss of a player for potentially longer than is necessary

9:23	Jeff Sullivan: Also could have an element of players not owning up to the realities of their aches and pains. But it’s a somewhat complicated question and of course we need some actual proof that the Reds and Twins are truly worse about this than the average

9:23	Jeff Sullivan: Depending on the player, it also usually isn’t that bad to be short a position player for a handful of days

9:24	Comment From Conrad ESPN Baseball game last night listed the average pitcher age for Tommy John surgery this season at 27….seems high? or are there lower profile older pitchers who have undergone the surgery? Is there an age where you might feel relatively safe?

9:25	Jeff Sullivan: https://docs.google.com/spr…

9:26	Jeff Sullivan: I’m not sure there’s a safe age, although you’re probably safer as you get older and you don’t throw as hard since I presume velocity is the biggest issue

9:27	Jeff Sullivan: Without having seen the graphic, I assume ESPN was not counting Tommy John cases in the minor leagues

9:27	Comment From J6takish Is the queue still filled with nick franklin questions or have we all moved on to taveras/polanco? Are we really that fickle?

9:27	Jeff Sullivan: Let’s try to trace this

9:27	Jeff Sullivan: For a while it was all Nick Franklin questions

9:27	Jeff Sullivan: then all Polanco questions. then all Brad Miller questions. now we’re probably getting back to Polanco again

9:28	Comment From Troy What’s Hosmer worth on the pitching exchange?

9:28	Jeff Sullivan: a decent and frustrating pitcher

9:28	Comment From Bryce Harpers Soulmate The news is good on Cashner, right? Think he can still be ace-like this season?

9:29

Jeff Sullivan: Good in that he isn’t out for 12-18 months, but he’s still out for an uncertain period of time. And when the inflammation subsides it could always reveal something problematic. I think he could definitely still be real good down the stretch and I’m happy to see him avoid TJ, but he’s still a pitcher with arm discomfort and that’s too bad

9:30	Comment From Chris With out trying to pry too much are Fg writers on salary or is it per piece?

9:30	Jeff Sullivan: Full-timers are on salary

9:30	Comment From King Jaymes YES, whats your thoughts on Keuchal for the rest of the year?

9:32

Jeff Sullivan: Not much not to like. As mentioned earlier, he can be this year’s Corey Kluber, kind of. Can’t really fool your way to that kind of low xFIP, and while neither his strikeout rate nor his walk rate are *outstanding*, he’s such a heavy groundball guy and he’s been so good at pitching around the edges and staying out of the bad spots

9:33	Jeff Sullivan: It’s fun when a guy like Garrett Richards figures it out. It’s more fun when it’s a guy like Dallas Keuchel, who just a few years ago basically sucked

9:34	Comment From Kevin Is the current level of performance what we can expect from the Red Sox offense going forward? they seem to have as many negative regression candidates as positive.

9:34	Jeff Sullivan: Projected here for the fourth-best runs/game the rest of the way http://www.fangraphs.com/de…

9:35	Jeff Sullivan: They have a .314 wOBA. The depth charts project them for a .329 wOBA the rest of the season. There’s room for some optimism

9:35	Comment From King Jaymes why is keuchal good all of a sudden? is it for real?

9:36

Jeff Sullivan: I havent’ done the full investigation, but I assume he’s pitching to better spots and taking advantage of a good receiver behind the plate. He’s pitching to whatever strengths it is that he has. And I don’t think it’s a mirage. I mean, being literally one of the best pitchers in baseball is probably a mirage, but I don’t know why I shouldn’t believe he’s good now

9:38	Comment From Keuchel Is it Kook-el or Kooch-el?

9:38	Jeff Sullivan: I don’t even want to type this

9:39	Jeff Sullivan: Kyk-el

9:40	Comment From Dave Reading alot that the Jays should gave after Shark. What would it take to get him, im guessing starting point is Sanchez + . Should they?

9:41	Jeff Sullivan: That is going to be roughly the price tag. He’s going to get a good prospect or two in the middle of this season, and if I’m the Jays, I’m okay with dealing Sanchez if I’m still very much in the hunt

9:41	Jeff Sullivan: Usually I’m against dealing really good prospects for guys on shorter terms, but pitching prospects aren’t hitting prospects and Sanchez is more of a high-risk pitching prospect

9:43	Comment From ashtray Ian Desmond. What’s his deal?

9:44	Jeff Sullivan: Contact rate has been slipping for a few years and he’s tied a lot up in higher-than-average BABIPs

9:44	Jeff Sullivan: But, in May, he has a 114 wRC+

9:44	Jeff Sullivan: Last year was 116. He could be just fine and he’s coming out of his early slump

9:46	Comment From Lion of Duda You probably don’t know these off the top of your head, but maybe good topics for pieces… When was the last time a non-catcher appeared at catcher? When was the last time a pitcher appeared in the field? How did they do?

9:46	Jeff Sullivan: Guessing Jorge Posada doesn’t count http://www.nytimes.com/2011…

9:47	Jeff Sullivan: Here’s a thing! http://www.gaslampball.com/…

9:47	Jeff Sullivan: The samples are always too small. When pitchers play the field, they tend not to get any action because they’re hidden in the areas least likely to get any action

9:47	Jeff Sullivan: When Mariano Rivera tried to shag fly balls he destroyed himself

9:48	Jeff Sullivan: Safe assumption: the emergency guys performed quite a bit worse. But it probably never really mattered

9:48	Comment From Peter Will there be a link to the live stream of Bob Ryan v. Dave Cameron ultimate cage match?

9:49	Jeff Sullivan: Cameron was the most respectful of everyone who thought to respond to Ryan’s article

9:49	Comment From Guest How bad does the Fielder trade look so far?

9:49	Jeff Sullivan: Bad, but it always looked bad, and Fielder’s done better in May than he did in April

9:50	Comment From Graham Is Solarte an everyday player for the Yankees ROS?

9:51

Jeff Sullivan: I’ve tried to write about this but I haven’t found the right nuggets yet. Solarte is kind of a 2014 miracle. The rest of the way he’s projected for more than 1 WAR by both ZiPS and Steamer and his numbers are solid — same walks as strikeouts, some power, high contact. Because he came from nothing, there’s the temptation to say he’s just a different version of last year’s early Vernon Wells, but Solarte is pulling things off in what could be a sustainable way

9:51	Comment From Brian Do the Blue Jays have the best offense in the AL East?

9:52	Jeff Sullivan: Yeah, probably, but the Orioles are close if you give them Matt Wieters

9:52	Comment From Breezy Corey Kluber – baseball thrower, master of cutter, slider, curveball mix.

9:52	Jeff Sullivan: And now his strikeouts are up from 22% to 26%

9:52	Comment From Chris206 Broken Brad Miller makes me sad =(

9:53	Jeff Sullivan: If it makes you feel better, he had 2 BB and 26 K in April and he’s at 8/14 in May

9:53	Jeff Sullivan: that comes with almost literally no hits, but it’s something

9:53	Comment From Dewey Your USSMariner podcast had something about Zunino improving his swing rate(I think that was it) and that’s not something you see very often. Could you explain a bit more about that topic?

9:54

Jeff Sullivan: I’ll have a post about it sometime soon ,but last I checked, Zunino’s swing rate was down like 10 or 11 percentage points in May, compared to April. Usually a swing rate is just part of a guy’s identity, and you don’t see it change dramatically. But Zunino’s cut down which is something that he realistically needed to do

9:54	Comment From Xolo Cashner’s on the DL with elbow soreness but no structural damage. Over/under that he ends up getting TJ by September?

9:54	Jeff Sullivan: You’re cruel

9:54	Comment From Gregory Polanco Will I actually be able to save the Pirates’ season by the time they call me up?

9:54	Jeff Sullivan: Can you make them pitch better?

9:55	Comment From john Mets talking about sending wheeler down to work on stuff when Gee comes off next week. Thoughts?

9:56	Jeff Sullivan: I don’t think it’s necessary, but I don’t see anything wrong, really, with a stint of a few weeks to get him to work on whatever. He has real question marks, including his secondary stuff and command, and his strike rate hasn’t gotten any better

9:57	Comment From Pitchers Who is more likely the better pitcher ROS: Simon, Hutchison, or Hughes?

9:57	Jeff Sullivan: Hutchison

9:57	Comment From Bob What are your thoughts on Danny Duffy? What’s his ceiling, has he put it together this year, blah, blah, blah?