Jeff Sullivan FanGraphs Chat — 5/26/17

9:02	Jeff Sullivan: Hello friends

9:02	Jeff Sullivan: Welcome to Friday baseball chat

9:03	Jeff Sullivan: Miss you, Bork

9:03	Sylvio Dante: should i be selling the farm for Berrios?

9:04	Jeff Sullivan: It’s not allowed to possess another human person, but from a more distant perspective, there’s not much here not to like

9:05	Jeff Sullivan: I’ll be interested to see how Berrios fares against big-league lefties as he gets settled, since that breaking ball is so good but seemingly so much better suited to cripple righties

9:05	Jeff Sullivan: But he’s basically trying to follow the Jose Fernandez mold. Lots of repertoire similarities there. There are worse profiles

9:05	Johnny5Alive: Can we fire Terry Collins yet?

9:05	Jeff Sullivan: Do what you want, but he’s not your problem

9:06	Jeff Sullivan: When you don’t have your best position player, starter, or reliever, I don’t know how much you can expect to accomplish

9:06	Jeff Sullivan: To say nothing of whatever Harvey has become

9:06	Stuafoo: What are you thoughts on JeDi’s body of work with the Ms?

9:06	Jeff Sullivan: Generally more positive than negative; this year has already been crippled by injuries

9:07	Jeff Sullivan: It’s one thing to plan on players getting hurt. Always happens, every season. It typically doesn’t happen all at once

9:07	JTT: Jeff Sullivan, does Carson still call you and Dave by your full names when talking to you in person?

9:07	Jeff Sullivan: You are under the mistaken impression that we see each other in person more than a couple times a year

9:08	Jeff Sullivan: But he will slip it in occasionally. It’s weird

9:09	JTT: Teams sign way fewer bad contracts than they used to but do we overestimate how good teams are at predicting how guys will age? Heyward, Bourne and Crawford have all been bad while guys like Nelson Cruz and Adam Dunn stayed (relatively) good. How much are teams just guessing?

9:09	Jeff Sullivan: Over the last four years of his career, Adam Dunn was worth a combined -0.2 WAR

9:10	Jeff Sullivan: I know what you’re getting at, though, and I do think sometimes that our understanding of aging curves is too simplistic.

9:11	Jeff Sullivan: Over the long haul teams more or less get it right, but I don’t know how you’re supposed to be able to identify exceptions. No single player perfectly fits the normal curve

9:12	Proswagonist: Lance McCullers Jr. is 23 years old and has the lowest ERA in the AL since 2015 (min 250 IP). When does he enter the top 10 pitcher in baseball discussion?

9:12	Jeff Sullivan: When he shows he can make 30 starts

9:13	Jeff Sullivan: Everything for McCullers right now is there. But it’s perfectly understandable to worry about a guy who throws breaking balls as much as he throws his fastball

9:14	Jeff Sullivan: On some level Lance McCullers was born to pitch for the present-day Dodgers

9:15	Charlie: Where’s Wednesday’s Effectively Wild?

9:15	Jeff Sullivan: All the week’s episodes have been recorded but Ben is in charge of the actual details and he’s out of the country on a trip. So it’s not an ordinary week

9:16	Big Tuna: The Astros seem to be using Devenski more frequently and he’s been giving up more runs. Are they at risk of over using him?

9:17	Jeff Sullivan: This is going to be the big question with any of these relievers around the game. Always a matter of knowing how hard they can be pushed. But, for example, Mike Montgomery has now actually surpassed Devenski in 2017 innings. Is Montgomery being overused? I’m not sure

9:17	Jeff Sullivan: For Devenski, some kind of statistical drop-off was inevitable, but this is something to watch as the season rolls on. He’s still not pitching poorly but he hasn’t been what he was in April

9:17	Hank: We need to have a talk about Keon Broxton. .430 BABIP, 38% K rate, on pace for 20HR 40SB, and around league average offensive production. Is there anyone with a more interesting profile in the league than him right now?

9:18	Jeff Sullivan: At some point I owe the audience a Keon Broxton update. It’s inevitable and it’s coming. He’s a fascinating dude, and what’s crazy is that his overall numbers this year are acceptable even though so many indicators have veered off in ugly directions

9:19	Jeff Sullivan: His exit velocity is way down. His walks are way down. His O-Swing is worse and his Z-Swing is worse

9:19	Jeff Sullivan: And he’s still on pace to be an above-average player. Okay!

9:20	Jeff Sullivan: It is worth noting that Broxton’s BABIP is based on a pretty small sample of batted balls, since he strikes out so often

9:20	Big Tuna: Is David Price gonna make it through the season?

9:20	Jeff Sullivan: I am usually not optimistic about these situations

9:20	Chris: What are the chances Joey Votto gets in the hall of fame?

9:21	Jeff Sullivan: Pretty low, since he’s in his mid-30s and his career WAR still isn’t even 50. Not a big precedent for these guys making it. But I wouldn’t be surprised if it were personal priority No. 1 or 2

9:22	Jeff Sullivan: By value and career path he’s kind of similar to Chase Utley. I can see how Utley would make the sabermetric Hall of Fame, but I assume he’ll fall short of the actual one

9:22	Nelson: Does the defensive component of WAR rely on opportunities? For example, would Trouts WAR be higher if the Angels only had extreme fly ball pitchers?

9:23	Jeff Sullivan: It’s more based on the difference between converted opportunities and expected converted opportunities

9:23	Proswagonist: Astros top hitters with at least 60 PA by wRC+: 1. Marwin Gonzalez 172 2. Jake Marisnick 153 3. Jose Altuve 136

9:24	Jeff Sullivan: Raise your hand if you thought Jake Marisnick would out-hit Carlos Beltran

9:26	Jeff Sullivan: Both Gonzalez and Marisnick has super interesting player pages right now. Gonzalez has basically tripled his walk rate. And Marisnick is hitting for more power, while his contact rate has dropped by NINETEEN POINTS

9:27	Jeff Sullivan: Neither hitter is experiencing what I would call sustainable success, but they’re still doing some pretty neat things

9:27	Ben: The playoff odds page currently lists Baltimore and Toronto with a virtual tie, approx. 22.5%, in playoff odds. Which team do you think has a better change to reach the postseason?

9:27	Jeff Sullivan: Blue Jays

9:28	Jeff Sullivan: Donaldson and Tulowitzki both seemingly back today

9:29	Jeff Sullivan: And the Jays have been pretty good ever since starting 2-11

9:29	It’s Robert, not Robert: What a game 7

9:30	Jeff Sullivan: Couldn’t have asked for much more. I guess one extra goal. But I feel a weird mixture of disappointment and pride

9:30	Jeff Sullivan: Fandom is so bizarre

9:31	Pretty Tony: Jeff will Justin Upton opt-out after this season?

9:31	Jeff Sullivan: I’d be pretty surprised if he did

9:31	Jeff Sullivan: He’s guaranteed almost $90 million over the next four years. He’d have to really want out of Detroit

9:32	Mark: Thanks for the weekly chat. Do you see Duvall and Schebler both settling in at 3+ WAR players? Feels like the Reds did well in the trades for both (plus other players).

9:33	Jeff Sullivan: Because of his defense, it’s easier for me to see Duvall as a three-win player. Schebler is more in the 2-3 range. But they’re both perfectly useful and the Reds seem to have a better group of position players than they were given credit for

9:33	Connor : If the season were to end today, what would be the World Series matchup

9:34	Jeff Sullivan: Wouldn’t be one. Season ended

9:34	Big Tuna: Is Sonny Gray back?

9:34	Jeff Sullivan: I wasn’t going to need very much convincing. I don’t think Gray is anyone’s idea of a legitimate shutdown No. 1, but I think he’s back to being pretty good again

9:35	Naveen: What can we learn from how the Nelson Cruz contract was so widely panned at the time of its signing? Is there something everyone missed?

9:35	Jeff Sullivan: One lesson is to never take the ordinary aging curve for granted. Some players will just age better than others

9:36	Jeff Sullivan: Another lesson is to keep in mind that a PED suspension doesn’t necessarily mean a player’s body is back to normal at the end

9:36	Jeff Sullivan: I don’t mean to suggest I know anything about Cruz’s case in particular, but you can’t not think about it

9:37	Jeff Sullivan: In any case, the way Cruz’s contract has worked out has been one of the few things keeping the Mariners somewhat afloat

9:37	Jeff Sullivan: A win for Jack Zduriencik!

9:37	Sylvio Dante: After the Votto article, he seems like one of these guys thats going to be offensively-elite until he’s 40

9:37	Jeff Sullivan: Votto strikes me as the position-player version of Zack Greinke. There are no other players I would trust more to squeeze the absolute most out of their respective aging processes

9:38	Chris: Ever do any off trail hiking (bush whacking)?

9:38	Jeff Sullivan: Yes, although I’d say the bulk of my off-trail hiking occurs above timberline

9:39	tip tipson : Who is Souza really? Have we figured this out?

9:39	Jeff Sullivan: He’s a strong dude with better defense than I expected him to have

9:39	Jeff Sullivan: A few years ago there were people who said even then that they liked Souza more than they liked Wil Myers. We’re seeing some of why that belief existed

9:41	Vin: Thoughts on Marwin Gonzalez’s power surge?

9:41	Jeff Sullivan: Mostly a mirage, but I do think he’s improved his left-handed swing. He’s a better hitter, but he’s not a great hitter

9:42	j : Aaron Hicks: All Star? Or still too early to think that?

9:42	Jeff Sullivan: Still too early. Plus, how many outfielders actually make it each season? It’s not like he’ll get in through voting.

9:43	Jeff Sullivan: I like his season, though. He’s really shrunk his zone

9:43	Stuafoo: How many attempts do you get from people trying to become the new Bork?

9:43	Jeff Sullivan: Some, but fewer than you’d expect

9:45	Ryan: Do you think that the Rockies/Dbacks are legit going down the road or do you think the pitching eventually comes back down to earth

9:46

Jeff Sullivan: I think they count as legitimate contenders just because of what they’ve already accomplished. Neither team is *bad* and there are elements to like about both pitching staffs. The Rockies actually have more of a weakness on the position-player side. The last two months for both teams are going to be stressful

9:47	Jeff Sullivan: I can’t tell you how much it helps the Diamondbacks to have uncovered a couple good relievers. That was supposed to be a massive liability

9:47	NatsFan: Are T. Turner, Robles, and Soto enough for Trout? Should either team consider this type of trade this off-season?

9:47	Jeff Sullivan: Stop trying to trade for Trout

9:47	Jeff Sullivan: You’re not going to trade for Trout

9:48	Anthony: Who’s the real Chuck Morton?

9:48	Jeff Sullivan: I don’t know what more convincing you need. The stuff is there. He’s pretty good now. Still seemingly a guy who’s a bit worse than his peripherals, but he was a great acquisition

9:49	Sylvio Dante: Time to buy on Tommy Joseph?

9:49	Jeff Sullivan: A few weeks ago people were asking if it was time to cut Tommy Joseph

9:49	Erik: Would you enjoy seeing two teams match up for three straight World Series, like we’re seeing in the NBA? Or do you prefer more variety?

9:49	Jeff Sullivan: I would hate that

9:49	Jeff Sullivan: Like, three straight years of Red Sox/Cardinals or something? Hard pass

9:50	Porcho Villa: Cesar Hernandez has had a rough May. Has the league adjusted to his new approach, or is this just a blip?

9:50	Jeff Sullivan: I think all the Phillies had a rough May

9:50	Jeff Sullivan: (Except Tommy Joseph)

9:50	Jeff Sullivan: Hernandez was never going to be an actual slugger, so just be happy if he keeps himself somewhere above average

9:51	Sylvio Dante: Oddudduddubal Herrera, last year was the ceiling and this years the floor?

9:52	Jeff Sullivan: Herrera is almost exactly what he was as a rookie, just with 100 missing points of BABIP

9:52	Jeff Sullivan: Not that his BABIP now is low; it’s just that, back then, it was high

9:52	Jeff Sullivan: His approach has gotten away from him somewhat, and he definitely looked frustrated yesterday, but this was always a risk. He’s not a disciplined hitter.

9:53	Moltar: Is there any team more comically mismanaged than the Mets? When the Marlins get sold, Wilpon assumes the title of worst owner in baseball, right?

9:53	Jeff Sullivan: There have been some major issues with, say, Anaheim. Baltimore, too, among others. You just get to hear more about the Mets because they’re the Mets

9:53	Jeff Sullivan: Not saying they’re not mismanaged. They just have some competition

9:54	CarrotJuice: Has Joe Smith made any changes to make you think that his absolute dominence this season is anything more than a SSS blip?

9:54	Jeff Sullivan: I wasn’t expecting to have to look this up this morning

9:56	Jeff Sullivan: All I can say for now is that it seems like Smith is working a little higher than he ever has.

9:57	Jeff Sullivan: Maybe taking a page out of the Darren O’Day playbook. At this point I’d most safely assume it’s a blip, but it’s something to watch. He might have unlocked a new way to miss bats

9:59	Ben: In the 2007 draft featured Price (1st), Bumgarner (10th), Heyward (14th), Donaldson (48th), Stanton (76th), & Freeman (78th). Knowing what they now know, if GMs could go back for a do over, I assume those guys would go in the first 6 picks, but in what order?